posted December 21, 2003 18:44            

quote:

---

Originally posted by machtabow2:
Mav... Great DD as usual! I'm going to look and see if there is more information on the Video Software dealers Association and the statistics that they track... Should be interesting DD. How's your weekend? The next week should be pretty exciting in the market! Looking forward to the day befoe Christmas. By the way... is it a 1/2 day tradig session? mach

The Video Software Dealers Association, which also tracks rental data for VHS cassettes and DVDs, said game rental revenue increased to $201 million from $184 million a year earlier and $161.4 million in the prior quarter.

---

posted December 21, 2003 18:50            

The key is that they are near a mail center which means they can get those games in and out faster to the east coast subscibers. I'd imagine I could fit thousands of video games in my basement, garage, attic....or wherever. As long as they are being mailed out immediately upon order....subscribers will be happy....profit will accumulate....the company will grow.

PSU

By the way Ron.....were you and your friends able to secure the shares you were after Friday?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
If this helps to calm some nerves/ I am part owner in three companies in Washington State. If you were to look at a map of the areas which they are in they would look much like the one you are so concerned about. They are in a farm and industrial areas in Whatcom County which is right against the Canadian border. My companies did net $85 million last year.

Thanks
Ron B.

---

posted December 21, 2003 18:51            

I did try to pick up some more share of PGHI on friday. I did snag just under 50,000 shares which added to a strong position. I will be at it again on Monday trying to buy at around .03 for another 300,000

I have been dealing in the bigger markets since 1975 so this is a nice distraction and nice to be involved in something from the ground floor.

I do have other tradeing friends which are going to be buying in once we do see the new web site and they are up and running in their new distribution center. I am going to be going to Kentucky myself before we dump a lot of money into this and talk with the CEO myself. That will be early January.

At that point I will be able to tell all that I find. My corporate lawer will be going with me.

Everything they have done so far makes sence as starting a company like this takes time to set it up right.

If all the ducks are in line this could be an excellent oppertunity for everyone who is in this.

posted December 21, 2003 19:02            

Remove the spaces (anti spam attempt)!

PSU

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
Mach

I did try to pick up some more share of PGHI on friday. I did snag just under 50,000 shares which added to a strong position. I will be at it again on Monday trying to buy at around .03 for another 300,000

I have been dealing in the bigger markets since 1975 so this is a nice distraction and nice to be involved in something from the ground floor.

I do have other tradeing friends which are going to be buying in once we do see the new web site and they are up and running in their new distribution center. I am going to be going to Kentucky myself before we dump a lot of money into this and talk with the CEO myself. That will be early January.

At that point I will be able to tell all that I find. My corporate lawer will be going with me.

Everything they have done so far makes sence as starting a company like this takes time to set it up right.

If all the ducks are in line this could be an excellent oppertunity for everyone who is in this.

Thanks to all for time spent on their reasearch

---

posted December 21, 2003 19:07            

quote:

---

Originally posted by m_h13021:
Response to Mav:
"I am not sure if it is going to be a 1/2 trading section..."

The U.S. stock market will shut early at 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday for Christmas Eve, close on Christmas Day on Thursday, and shut early again at 1 p.m. on Friday

---

posted December 21, 2003 19:09            

P.S: The day before and after , the marketss will close @ 1:00 PM ET..
http://www.nasdaq.com/about/schedule.stm

quote:

---

Originally posted by machtabow2:
Mav... Great DD as usual! I'm going to look and see if there is more information on the Video Software dealers Association and the statistics that they track... Should be interesting DD. How's your weekend? The next week should be pretty exciting in the market! Looking forward to the day befoe Christmas. By the way... is it a 1/2 day tradig session? mach

The Video Software Dealers Association, which also tracks rental data for VHS cassettes and DVDs, said game rental revenue increased to $201 million from $184 million a year earlier and $161.4 million in the prior quarter.

---

posted December 21, 2003 19:10            

Glad to see you were able to accumulate a few more shares here. I'm unsure whether you are accumulating on your own via an online broker or by having broker fill your order.

You may have opportunity in the morning to accumulate shares between .029 & .031 as the MM have signaled they still need to accumulate more shares before they let this run. Only the MM's will accumulate at .028.

Look forward to your discussion with John Fleming in January. The new site should be up soon... I have seen a sample of the site a few weeks back when a member was able to link it to a message board. It is extremely impressive.

When the site is launched you will likely see a dramatic increase in the price of this stock. I am mentioning that to encourage your friends to purchase at least partial positions in PGHI before this takes place.

Technicals are strengthening daily and the "Bulls" will likely have "Seized complete Control" of PGHI this week.

Yes, we need to always remind investors that we are on the ground floor of a great opportunity here.

"First Publicly Traded Online Video Game Rental Company"

"70% of all households will have a video game console by 2005"

"Strong Shareholders"

"New corporate name, and new site coming soon!"

*** The Future's so Bright ***
mach

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
Mach

I did try to pick up some more share of PGHI on friday. I did snag just under 50,000 shares which added to a strong position. I will be at it again on Monday trying to buy at around .03 for another 300,000

I have been dealing in the bigger markets since 1975 so this is a nice distraction and nice to be involved in something from the ground floor.

I do have other tradeing friends which are going to be buying in once we do see the new web site and they are up and running in their new distribution center. I am going to be going to Kentucky myself before we dump a lot of money into this and talk with the CEO myself. That will be early January.

At that point I will be able to tell all that I find. My corporate lawer will be going with me.

Everything they have done so far makes sence as starting a company like this takes time to set it up right.

If all the ducks are in line this could be an excellent oppertunity for everyone who is in this.

Thanks to all for time spent on their reasearch

---

posted December 21, 2003 19:31            

I do the the PPM on John Flemming. I do not have any real doubts about John Flemming at this point. He has done all the right moves and taken the steps nessary to get this up and running.

The trip to Kentucky is not only for this but will be in the area on other business. It will take me a little out of the way but is worth the extra time.

Mach

My tradeing friends will be going in on Monday with buy orders. We are going to holding off with some bigger buys until after we see more progress with the web site and they are up and running. At that time we are going to be dumping some bigger money into the company.
By then I will have visited the site and spoken with John Flemming. This is more for my conservitive friends than myself.

Everything I have heard and reasearched has proven to be right so no worries.

posted December 21, 2003 19:38            

Netflix Churns Lower, Moves Higher

The Motley Fool Radio Show

By David Gardner and Tom Gardner
October 28, 2003

David and Tom Gardner recently interviewed Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings on The Motley Fool Radio Show on NPR. This is the first of four parts.

TMF: Reed Hastings is the CEO of Netflix. He joins us from Los Angeles, Calif. Reed, welcome back to The Motley Fool Radio Show.

Hastings: Thank you.

TMF: You just reported a third-quarter profit that exceeded expectations. You ended the quarter with 1.29 million subscribers. That is a 74% increase from last year. Your stock now trades at around $50 a share, Reed, compared to $12 a share when our show last had you on in January, what is going on?

Hastings: Well, we have continued to grow our subscriber base. First quarter we were up 75%, second quarter we are up 75% year over year, and now third quarter we are up 75% year over year. It has just been tremendous growth and it is driven from, I think, a great service that customers want to tell their friends about, one of these amazing word-of-mouth phenomena.

TMF: So your third-quarter report is just out. What is the highlight and, importantly, what is the lowlight in your opinion of your third quarter earnings?

Hastings: Well, the highlight is we had record revenues, $72 million. We had GAAP net income of $3.3 million; about three times what we expected. Our monthly churn has decreased from 7.2% to 6% and now in Q3 hit a record low of 5.2%. So those are the big highlights.

Lowlights, I am stretching for that one. We did not issue guidance for 2004. We will do that in January.

TMF: Explain for our listeners what a "churn rate" is and why it is important that yours has been falling.

Hastings: Sure. The churn rate is how many subscribers quit in a given month. Our service is $20 a month and there is no commitment. It is easy to get in and out of. What we do is sometimes consumers will leave the service for a few months, similar to how people treat HBO. They might turn it off for a few months and then come back to it. The rate at which they leave is the churn and that is, again, about 5% per month now.

TMF: We are looking over the numbers, Reed. At your present rate, we estimate you will churn out of about 900,000 customers by year's end. You begin here with about 850,000 customers, which I guess begs the question: How long is your median customer maintaining his Netflix membership?

Hastings: The mean customer life is roughly one divided by the churn, so that is about 20 months at this point, 19 point something. I am not sure on the median, but it would probably be pretty close. I don't think there would be anything skewed there. So what we have done is really extend the customer life by reducing the churn. Many of the people who leave the service come back to it. So they are not leaving because they are unhappy with it. They are just turning it off and to be most straightforward, we report that as churn, even though they say that they are going to be coming back.

TMF: To the extent that there is any tradition in the world of DVD rentals, I will say for many people it is a pretty impulsive act. They walk down to their video store. They check out some of the aisles. They spend more time than they wanted to looking, and they end up renting something and then taking it home. Now with Netflix, customers wait to get the movie in the mail. So does getting people to rent from Netflix involve changing consumer behavior from here?

Hastings: It does. It is one of the great challenges of Netflix marketing. It is a consumer behavior change. It is why our best marketing program ever has been our free trial to let any consumer try Netflix for free. What we find is once they have tried it, they realize, "Oh, I get to keep three movies at home at any point. I don't have any late fees or due dates." So then Friday night comes and it actually feels more spontaneous because they can just pick up one of the DVDs from the top of the TV and watch it. But until someone tries it, that's a bit of an abstract concept. So we have really invested heavily in this free-trial notion. The way you can see that working is nine out of 10 people who try our service for free become paying subscribers.

TMF: Reed, the U.S. isn't the only country with a well-developed postal infrastructure. Will Netflix expand internationally, and if so, when?

Hastings: Sure. It is absolutely something we are looking at. What we realize, though, is that we will do about $270 million of revenue this year in the U.S. That is only about 3% of the domestic video rental market. It is about a $10 billion market. We are really at a very small penetration here in the U.S., and we may be as well served in focusing domestically for a little while, continuing to build that share, get to our 5 million subscribers/billion dollars of revenue goal and then expand at that point. So we are debating that back and forth.

Tomorrow: Will Netflix expand beyond movies?

posted December 21, 2003 19:41            

Here is the latest chart, now I will try and explain the techs as unbiased as I can.

Volume- not on the chart, but very low, under 2 mil. We will need more volume in the coming week for this to move up.

Candles- 3 days in a row of bullish candles, a good sign. Today's candle, a Hammer, shows a possible drop on monday. For an example look at the bullish hammer in mid-november followed by a bearish candle. This is usually a short term price correction. I dont expect a correction of novembers magnitude, because of the low volume. A drop to .027 .028 is realistic. After the correction, the trend will resume upwards, as it did in November

Williams %R- a measure of Oversold or Overbought securities. 80 is oversold, 20 is Overbought. When at 50, no matter which direction the price is going it is seen as a healthy rate of change.
//PGHI// This agrees with the candles that the correction expected will be small if at all, because it was not overbought on Friday, it was a healthy uptrend. IMO, we would reach 20 (overbought) if it ran to .06-.08 in 2 weeks, at which time I would cash in, take free shares, and wait for consolidation to end for a new entry point. What we WANT is SLOW STEADY INCREASE. This is how real gains are made.

Stochastic- another measure of oversold/overbought. Notice how it moves with the williams %R. "Stokes" are superior IMO because it has a Fast and Slow line. When the fast crosses the slow, it indicates a possible new trend.
//PGHI// 3 days ago the Fast crossed the slow and began moving UPWARDS, also seen in November before the big run up (Mach I hope you noticed that, guessing you did).

MACD. One of the most important indicators. Moving Average Convergence Divergance. The red line is the SLOW LINE or longer duration MA, grey is the fast line or shorter duration MA. In this case they are the 12/26.
There are a couple things to look at with this. When ABOVE the 0 line, it is said to be BULLISH, below bearish.
//PGHI// Currently we are above the 0, so we are still in a longer term bull run.
YOU MUST LOOK AT BOTH LINES. When the fast line crosses the slow line it is an indication of a possible new trend. The fast line for PGHI will move closer to the slow line and will be similar to November, where it hovered around the 0. The blue divergence bars indicate which direction the slow line is moving.

EMA (Exponential Moving Average)- Moving average taking into consideration larger price swings and calculating them in. A good reference before entering a position. Trading above short duration MA is short term Bullish. Above long duration is Long term bullish.
When prices drop, the VOLUME must be looked at. Dropping through any MA line on HUGE volume is BAD. However, hitting or going through any MA on LIGHT volume is ok, and is a possible reversal point.
//PGHI// Over the past 2 months PGHI has been keeping with the 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE which is very bullish.
PGHI has touched the 30 Day moving average twice- In November when it bottomed, and this week, where it bottomed. And has not seen the 50 Day Moving average in a few months. This tells you the stock is bullish on short, monthly and quarterly durations.

**************SUMMARY*************
VOLUME= Needs to increase to 3-4 Mil/Day on the up days, and stay below 2-3 Mil on the down days.

CANDLES= Hammer. Bullish. Small Correction Possible Monday to ~ .027 .028

WILLIAMS %R= Oversold, becoming less oversold

STOCHASTICS= Oversold, becoming less oversold

MACD= Slow above 0, Long term bullish
Fast at the 0 moving back above 0, short term bullish

Exponential Moving Averages 10,30,50= Bullish on all three counts

*****OTHER FACTORS / SPECULATION********

MM SIGNALS
100 sale means MM needs shares
200 sale means MM needs shares bad-lot of orders he cannot cover
300 sale means MM is going to take price down to get shares
400 sale means trade sideways
500 sale gapping up or down depending on which way the sale went

Friday
12:28:26 200 NEEDS SHARES, much buying afterwards
15:57:48 300 0.03 + OTCBB near the close
15:57:18 300 0.029 - OTCBB

NEW WEBSITE
Is expected to come out be the EOY

CHRISTMAS RALLY
Its a tradition!

NAME CHANGE
Changing Name to GamezNFlix possible by end of January?

SITE RANKING / HITS
Site continues to get more hits month over month as other competing sites dwindle.

This has taken 2 hours to prepare, 45 min to type out, please read it.

Thank you to Mach, Mav, Marty, PSU, Milty, Raven, BetNit, and all others who actually get dirty, sift through those SEC files and other junk to get the real DD done.

And of course, pbwizard for this banner

Conclusion:

Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

[/B][/QUOTE]

posted December 21, 2003 19:48            

Sure. It is absolutely something we are looking at. What we realize, though, is that we will do about $270 million of revenue this year in the U.S. That is only about 3% of the domestic video rental market. It is about a $10 billion market. We are really at a very small penetration here in the U.S., and we may be as well served in focusing domestically for a little while, continuing to build that share, get to our 5 million subscribers/billion dollars of revenue goal and then expand at that point. So we are debating that back and forth.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mav:
This is an interesting interview....

Netflix Churns Lower, Moves Higher

The Motley Fool Radio Show

By David Gardner and Tom Gardner
October 28, 2003

David and Tom Gardner recently interviewed Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings on The Motley Fool Radio Show on NPR. This is the first of four parts.

TMF: Reed Hastings is the CEO of Netflix. He joins us from Los Angeles, Calif. Reed, welcome back to The Motley Fool Radio Show.

Hastings: Thank you.

TMF: You just reported a third-quarter profit that exceeded expectations. You ended the quarter with 1.29 million subscribers. That is a 74% increase from last year. Your stock now trades at around $50 a share, Reed, compared to $12 a share when our show last had you on in January, what is going on?

Hastings: Well, we have continued to grow our subscriber base. First quarter we were up 75%, second quarter we are up 75% year over year, and now third quarter we are up 75% year over year. It has just been tremendous growth and it is driven from, I think, a great service that customers want to tell their friends about, one of these amazing word-of-mouth phenomena.

TMF: So your third-quarter report is just out. What is the highlight and, importantly, what is the lowlight in your opinion of your third quarter earnings?

Hastings: Well, the highlight is we had record revenues, $72 million. We had GAAP net income of $3.3 million; about three times what we expected. Our monthly churn has decreased from 7.2% to 6% and now in Q3 hit a record low of 5.2%. So those are the big highlights.

Lowlights, I am stretching for that one. We did not issue guidance for 2004. We will do that in January.

TMF: Explain for our listeners what a "churn rate" is and why it is important that yours has been falling.

Hastings: Sure. The churn rate is how many subscribers quit in a given month. Our service is $20 a month and there is no commitment. It is easy to get in and out of. What we do is sometimes consumers will leave the service for a few months, similar to how people treat HBO. They might turn it off for a few months and then come back to it. The rate at which they leave is the churn and that is, again, about 5% per month now.

TMF: We are looking over the numbers, Reed. At your present rate, we estimate you will churn out of about 900,000 customers by year's end. You begin here with about 850,000 customers, which I guess begs the question: How long is your median customer maintaining his Netflix membership?

Hastings: The mean customer life is roughly one divided by the churn, so that is about 20 months at this point, 19 point something. I am not sure on the median, but it would probably be pretty close. I don't think there would be anything skewed there. So what we have done is really extend the customer life by reducing the churn. Many of the people who leave the service come back to it. So they are not leaving because they are unhappy with it. They are just turning it off and to be most straightforward, we report that as churn, even though they say that they are going to be coming back.

TMF: To the extent that there is any tradition in the world of DVD rentals, I will say for many people it is a pretty impulsive act. They walk down to their video store. They check out some of the aisles. They spend more time than they wanted to looking, and they end up renting something and then taking it home. Now with Netflix, customers wait to get the movie in the mail. So does getting people to rent from Netflix involve changing consumer behavior from here?

Hastings: It does. It is one of the great challenges of Netflix marketing. It is a consumer behavior change. It is why our best marketing program ever has been our free trial to let any consumer try Netflix for free. What we find is once they have tried it, they realize, "Oh, I get to keep three movies at home at any point. I don't have any late fees or due dates." So then Friday night comes and it actually feels more spontaneous because they can just pick up one of the DVDs from the top of the TV and watch it. But until someone tries it, that's a bit of an abstract concept. So we have really invested heavily in this free-trial notion. The way you can see that working is nine out of 10 people who try our service for free become paying subscribers.

TMF: Reed, the U.S. isn't the only country with a well-developed postal infrastructure. Will Netflix expand internationally, and if so, when?

Hastings: Sure. It is absolutely something we are looking at. What we realize, though, is that we will do about $270 million of revenue this year in the U.S. That is only about 3% of the domestic video rental market. It is about a $10 billion market. We are really at a very small penetration here in the U.S., and we may be as well served in focusing domestically for a little while, continuing to build that share, get to our 5 million subscribers/billion dollars of revenue goal and then expand at that point. So we are debating that back and forth.

Tomorrow: Will Netflix expand beyond movies?

Netflix was David Gardner's June 2003 pick for Motley Fool Stock Advisor and has returned about 137% to date.

---

posted December 21, 2003 19:52            

To answer your question, I do have an Ameritrade account so I purchase PGHI through that.

posted December 21, 2003 19:53            

Nothing better than controling your own portfolio. imho of course. mach

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
Mach

To answer your question, I do have an Ameritrade account so I purchase PGHI through that.

However I use a broker for some of the other holdings I have.

---

posted December 21, 2003 20:07            

Why does the stock of a successful start up company surge at some point.....because there are big buyers waiting in the wings to make sure the "egg has hatched". When this is confirmed, then the bigger buyers jump in and help the baby bird take flight.

I am sure there are many others out there like your friends. Once PGHI shows they are for real....the money will flow in. Patience will pay off for those in at this level.

PSU

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
Thanks PSU

My tradeing friends will be going in on Monday with buy orders. We are going to holding off with some bigger buys until after we see more progress with the web site and they are up and running. At that time we are going to be dumping some bigger money into the company.
By then I will have visited the site and spoken with John Flemming. This is more for my conservitive friends than myself.

Everything I have heard and reasearched has proven to be right so no worries.

Thanks for your help
Ron B.

---

posted December 21, 2003 20:10            

There is one thing I wanted you to take a look at... We are on the same page with respect to our medium term outlook... but I have found that the day to day moves have been a little more difficult if you use Candlestick charting. (I try to stay away from predictig day to day moves as some members will be quick to point out that you were wrong.)

Example... As we approached the end of November... you will notice several candlestick doji's and hammers which may have may have been communicated a potential pullback in the context of an uptrend...but in fact this did not occur on the following day.

What i have noticed is that as the stock strengthens... the MM do their best to shake out shares by dropping the floor fast. A few weak hands may sell... but the selling is usually minimal. This creates the lower wick on the candlestick... that may often be deceiving when using candlestick charting technique.

Tech analyis is working well with trending... but I also follow Level II closely with respect to what I believe will be the movement the next day.

If MM in fact attempt to shake out a few shares in the morning... I think it may in fact be minimal and that only a few weak hands will sell.

After all... we are now beginning an uptrend and are currently trading near the floor... We are entering the Christmas holiday week... and anticipate the name change and site to be up soon. Honestly can not imagine too many people walking away from what could be potentially "huge" gains in the coming weeks for minimal or no profit.

MM's may have placed the signal that they need more shares... but we may find that shareholdes are simply not going to let go of their shares. Let's see how it pans out... Any selling should be minimal.

We need to make sure board members are aware that they do not have stop-loss orders placed in the morning or they will likely be forced to buy back in at a higher price after the MM's "steal" their shares and then keep a "large" spread.

I really do enjoy this "Chess Game" with the MM's.

posted December 21, 2003 20:12            

quote:

---

Originally posted by PSU90:
Ron....this part of your message is very encouraging to me. Why? Because it shows the psychology of the traders waiting on this.

Why does the stock of a successful start up company surge at some point.....because there are big buyers waiting in the wings to make sure the "egg has hatched". When this is confirmed, then the bigger buyers jump in and help the baby bird take flight.

I am sure there are many others out there like your friends. Once PGHI shows they are for real....the money will flow in. Patience will pay off for those in at this level.

PSU

---

posted December 21, 2003 20:12            

By the end of 2003, based on performance standards established by the US Postal Service, Netflix expects to be able to provide one-day delivery service to approximately 60% of the U.S. population or approximately 70% of their subscribers. At the time the 2002 annual report was written, Netflix states they provide one- or two-day delivery service to more than 90% of the U.S. population.

j160e

posted December 21, 2003 20:20            

Great DD again. You are demonstrating the board... the importance of the TIMELINESS IN THE FULLFILLMENT OF ORDERS and the importance of having multiple-distribution centers.

The creation of a Kentucky distribution center is a strategic move by a great leader in anticipation of our growing customer base and Veegeez's desire for FAST AND EFFICIENT FULLFILLMENT.

After all Happy Customers are Loyal Customers! And the savy business man understands that it is much easier to retain an existing customer than finding a new one.

"It is no secret in marketing that it is nine times easier to retain a customer than it is to convert an existing customer to your product. Converting an existing customer takes a great deal of money, advertising, and a distinct competitive advantage."

Great job! mach

quote:

---

Originally posted by j160e:
I just read on page 16 of the Netflix 2002 annual report that they estimate the set-up cost of a shipping center to be $60,000.

By the end of 2003, based on performance standards established by the US Postal Service, Netflix expects to be able to provide one-day delivery service to approximately 60% of the U.S. population or approximately 70% of their subscribers. At the time the 2002 annual report was written, Netflix states they provide one- or two-day delivery service to more than 90% of the U.S. population.

j160e

[This message has been edited by j160e (edited December 21, 2003).]

---

[This message has been edited by machtabow2 (edited December 21, 2003).]

[This message has been edited by machtabow2 (edited December 21, 2003).]

posted December 21, 2003 20:28            

Psychology and the life cycle of a stock.

I found this commentary by Tyler Bollhorn of Stockscores.

"....there is more to the game of trading stocks than just good analysis. There are good chart readers and well informed insiders that have the same thing in common; they can not make money in the stock market. Their lack of performance shared the same reason.

They don't have their head screwed on straight.

Actually, they do have their mental faculties properly aligned, but they are just not set up properly for stock market trading. From the time we are small children we are taught to avoid pain and seek out pleasure. We can all hear our parents warning us to not touch the stove, but to have a good time when we joined our friends. Our upbringing is destructive to our performance in the market. To be successful, we must learn to be behavioral deviants.

To make my point, I outline the life cycle of a stock, and how the successful trader differs from the minion who has the typical psychological responses to the stock market;

Stage 1 - Accumulation. Stock is quiet, trading sideways and without a lot of volatility. Most everyone ignores the stock because it has no sizzle. Insiders hold large blocks of stock and quietly gear up for the distribution.

Stage 2 - Breakout. Volume jumps up, psychological barriers are broken. Insiders begin to tell their friends of upcoming significant fundamental change. Pros take notice and buy the stock on the coat tails of the well informed. The public ignores it because they have not read about the company in the paper yet. It must be a scam.

Stage 3 - Uptrend. As a larger audience learns of the company and its promise, more buying comes in to the stock and it begins to climb. Pros begin to sell, but slowly. Average investor begins to buy.

Stage 4 - Pullback. The stock has gone up too fast, and some profit taking arrives. The jumpy investor who got the entry timing right but lacks confidence in his or her decision sells the stock with a small profit, and smiles in the mirror. The Pro holds on, Average Investor looks through the newspaper to find justification for ownership of the shares.

Stage 5 - Resumption of the Uptrend. The pull back is short lived, and the stock bounces and continues higher. The wannabe regrets the sell, but provides self counsel on the merit of making a profit, albeit a small one. The Pro might sell a little bit more, but still holds the majority of the original position. The Average Investor is getting excited now, and thinks about what could have been if only he had bought when he first noticed the stock.

Stage 6 - Exhaustion of the Uptrend. The media takes notice, and communicates the company's merits to the masses. The masses buy the stock, and it goes up sharply with strong volume. The Pros sell with enthusiasm. The Average Investor owns it now, and is telling everyone who will listen. The wannabe Pro jumps back on, after all, he was smart enough to buy it when the trend started, so he knows the stock well. Will hope make it go higher?

Stage 7 - Gravity Works. Pro selling begins to weigh on the uptrend, and the stock fails to go higher despite high volumes. The stock starts to go down instead of up, and the Pro is almost sold out. The Average Investor continues to cheer lead, hoping to rally support. The wannabe ignores what the market is telling him, taking a loss is too painful to consider. The company is featured on the cover of a magazine.

Stage 8 - The Second Guess. The stock bounces and starts to go back up. The wannabe Pro averages down while the Average Investor gets back to advising friends of his stock picking acumen. Pros sell their remaining holdings and begin to look for another deal to play, or perhaps start short selling the stock.

Stage 9 - Out of Gas. The bounce is a fake out, and the stock moves lower again. The public own this stock, and they have no more power to buy. The Pro are making money on the short sales now, but are despised by the masses. Calls for short selling to be made illegal are made by the Average Investor, after all, the short sellers are the demons causing the sell off.

Stage 10 - Dead Cat Bounce. The Average Investor and the wannabe Pro have no pain tolerance left, and finally sell for a big loss. The short selling Pros are the only buyers to take the share off their hands, and provide the needed liquidity. The stock bounces, and some short term traders make a quick profit. The Average Investor either swears to never buy a stock again, or tells lively stories over drinks about the one that could have been.

Stage 11 - Post Mortem. Pros have forgot about the stock and are considering carpet samples for their new home in Florida. Average Investor continues to follow the company and buys loads of cheap stock to try and overcome the regrettable loss.

The stock market is mean. You can be a good analyst, but if you can't overcome the psychological traps of trading, you will do what the crowd does. To be successful, you have be one step ahead of the crowd, and trade with unemotional discipline. There are strategies to take advantage of each stage of the market cycle that can be applied just by looking at a stock chart. They just require a bit of knowledge."

Experience helps me recognise my mistake when I make it a second time.

I believe we are at stage one..The buzz is yet to begin.When the buzz starts it's gonna be a hell of a ride.....

posted December 21, 2003 20:53            

quote:

---

Originally posted by machtabow2:
j160e...

Great DD again. You are demonstrating the board... the importance of the TIMELINESS IN THE FULLFILLMENT OF ORDERS and the importance of having multiple-distribution centers.

The creation of a Kentucky distribution center is a strategic move by a great leader in anticipation of our growing customer base and Veegeez's desire for FAST AND EFFICIENT FULLFILLMENT.

After all Happy Customers are Loyal Customers! And the savy business man understands that it is much easier to retain an existing customer than finding a new one.

Great job! mach

[This message has been edited by machtabow2 (edited December 21, 2003).]

[This message has been edited by machtabow2 (edited December 21, 2003).]

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posted December 21, 2003 20:57            

It is true what you say about the psychology with the differnt buying levels. Some of my friend are going in small to them but maybe big to others as a first buy this week.

They are more traditional buyers with a show me attitude. They are willing to take a smaller portion of the profit as they will be putting in a larger amount of cash then most. It sll comes out in the wash.

We have talk about PGHI for some time now and when it begins to move we will be buying more in larger chunks. This is not to pump the stock but to hold for the long term but sell off a percentage to recover maybe 40% of the initial investment. This will leave the MMs in the dust

I do believe that this will be very benificial for everyone involved at the ground floor

Ron B.

posted December 21, 2003 21:06            

It is true what you say about the psychology with the differnt buying levels. Some of my friend are going in small to them but maybe big to others as a first buy this week.

They are more traditional buyers with a show me attitude. They are willing to take a smaller portion of the profit as they will be putting in a larger amount of cash then most. It sll comes out in the wash.

We have talk about PGHI for some time now and when it begins to move we will be buying more in larger chunks. This is not to pump the stock but to hold for the long term but sell off a percentage to recover maybe 40% of the initial investment. This will leave the MMs in the dust

I do believe that this will be very benificial for everyone involved at the ground floor

Ron B.

posted December 21, 2003 21:57            

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
PSU

It is true what you say about the psychology with the differnt buying levels. Some of my friend are going in small to them but maybe big to others as a first buy this week.

They are more traditional buyers with a show me attitude. They are willing to take a smaller portion of the profit as they will be putting in a larger amount of cash then most. It sll comes out in the wash.

We have talk about PGHI for some time now and when it begins to move we will be buying more in larger chunks. This is not to pump the stock but to hold for the long term but sell off a percentage to recover maybe 40% of the initial investment. This will leave the MMs in the dust

I do believe that this will be very benificial for everyone involved at the ground floor

Ron B.

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posted December 21, 2003 22:12            

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
Sorry double post. My finger must have a twitch in it

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Ron....that post was worth reading twice LOL! Hope everyone catches it.

posted December 21, 2003 22:38            

--------------------------------
Playing Mogul
By JONATHAN DEE

Published: December 21, 2003

Globally, the industry earned $28 billion in 2002, and in the United States, it's growing at around 20 percent a year. According to Fortune magazine, Americans will spend more time playing video games this year -- about 75 hours on average -- than watching rented videos and DVD's. A nationwide survey found that the percentage of last year's college students who had ever played video games was 100. Two games from the industry leader Electronic Arts, Madden NFL Football and FIFA Soccer, have each earned in excess of a billion dollars. (This year's Madden edition made more than $200 million alone.) For new and established musicians alike, games are the new radio; landing a spot on a video-game soundtrack is arguably more prestigious than landing a similar spot in a movie, a function not just of sales figures but also of the fact that the average Madden NFL 2004 buyer, for instance, will spend 100 hours in front of the game. Each statistic is more mind-boggling than the last, and together they certainly pose a challenge to conventional wisdom about which of these media is the tail and which is the dog.

posted December 21, 2003 23:32            

Here is another nice PGHI chart with notes:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1981684

PSU

quote:

---

Originally posted by COOLORANGEFREEZE:
Hey, Cabbage22! That was the best post on analysis that I have read. It was just like going to school. Thanks for that very easy to understand piece of work. I will be using that info in the future.

And thanks to everyone else for their posts. I read every single one. I feel like I'm a part of something very unique here

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posted December 22, 2003 01:08            

quote:

---

Originally posted by BetNitAll:
leaving tacoma now writting from wireless pda have great news will post asap

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posted December 22, 2003 03:07            

As I drove to Tacoma with my doors locked (it’s a very dangerous place for a white guy n a SUV) I was scouting for the NetFlix “huge” distribution center…I found the street it was on but couldn’t seem to find this huge warehouse. When I finally did find it, I noticed a couple of things. First, right next to the warehouse was the Tacoma Police’s meth lab clean up crew….yep..a huge cargo truck that said TACOMA POLICE MOBILE LAB. It looked like they just busted a meth lab…I was not surprised.

Second…the NetFlix Tacoma distribution center consisted of a building that was about 5000 square feet. I paced it off. About 100 by 50 square feet. It was in a little strip mall…you know, the ones that have a
7-11, small restaurant and a dollar store. Except this one had a Dentist office, a small store to make neon signs, and a hair cut place., and then NetFlix. Nothing glamorous about it. There was curtains covering all the windows and a penske rent a van out side. There was a small sticker that said, “NetFlix, No Soliciting” It was About the size of a bumper sticker. Inside consisted of racks of DVD and a cement floor. It was just a basic building about the size of a McDonalds or 7-11. There was a huge post office across the street though, and I think that’s all that counts.

This is what it looks to me happened. Netflix looked for post offices in Washington that had retail space next to them. Then they chose the cheapest crapiest one available. Good Job NetFlix. They are keeping their overhead low. I am not selling my shares of PGHI if it hits .01 or .10. This company has a lot of potential. If PGHI east coast distribution center just happens to be a farm house, then so be it. I would hope its not, but what can you do. I hope they had the sense enough to put it next to a post office.

If you ask me….someone is going to make a lot of money with the online game rental idea. I HOPE its us.

posted December 22, 2003 03:51            

quote:

---

Originally posted by Magoo:
Mach

I did try to pick up some more share of PGHI on friday. I did snag just under 50,000 shares which added to a strong position. I will be at it again on Monday trying to buy at around .03 for another 300,000

I have been dealing in the bigger markets since 1975 so this is a nice distraction and nice to be involved in something from the ground floor.

I do have other tradeing friends which are going to be buying in once we do see the new web site and they are up and running in their new distribution center. I am going to be going to Kentucky myself before we dump a lot of money into this and talk with the CEO myself. That will be early January.

At that point I will be able to tell all that I find. My corporate lawer will be going with me.

Everything they have done so far makes sence as starting a company like this takes time to set it up right.

If all the ducks are in line this could be an excellent oppertunity for everyone who is in this.

Thanks to all for time spent on their reasearch

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posted December 22, 2003 04:00            

i agree with your post below about the benefits of a new distribution center.

it doesn't matter too much to me if it's run out of a garage, either. besides, i myself ran a small website from my bedroom years ago which i sold during the internet boom for a healthy profit.

the way things unfolded along with that satellite photo just got me thinking... but never panicked.

however, after reading the posts from the past day, i'm now less concerned about it.

in any case, i will keep looking around the edges and outside the box and will post anything of interest.

quote:

---

Originally posted by machtabow2:
Adrenalix,

First and foremost as a shareholder I respect and support the decisions that this company is making. At this particular stage in the progress of the company... it does make sense to have both an East & West Coast Distribution Center. The timeframe in which customers receive and are able to return their rentals will have a dramatic impact on their satisfaction and desire to continue their membership with Veegeez. Knowing that we are about to launch a new site and incoporate DVD rentals... The move indicates that we have a President that is looking to move forward agressively. It would not make sense at all to launch a new site and focus on growing your subscriber base to find out that your new subscribers are disappointed in the timeliness of their orders. Indeed... a company would desire to "have all it's ducks in a row." With respect to whether he has family in Kentucky.. I do not care to speculate... but will add that if in fact I were the President and understood that an East Coast Distibution Center was necessary... I might indeed consider at least trying to locate such a center in an are that I might have family and friends.

mach

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posted December 22, 2003 04:41            

1. 4/14/1998 Netflix opens first online DVD rental store. At this time Customers are receiving their DVD in 2 to 3 Days. Around 1000 titles available.. Sound familiar. At this time NetFlix’s free trial SUX, you even had to pay for shipping and it was only a seven day trial.

2. 11/19/1998 Title available now at 2,200

3. 4/12/1999 Instead of keeping a DVD for 7 days, you can keep them for two weeks. At this time they are charging $3.49 for each movie rental.. Doesn’t appear to have the monthly fee unlimited option yet. Titles available now at 3,100

4. 07/07/199 look what they accomplished by this time In Addition To Existing Promotions With Sony, Toshiba And RCA/Thomson Consumer Electronics, World's First And Largest Online DVD Rental Store Announces New Relationships With Panasonic, Philips, Sharp, Kenwood, JVC, Marantz And Mitsubishi
Promotions With Manufacturers Offer Free DVD Rentals To All New NetFlix.Com Customers

5. Another big announcement on this day NETFLIX.COM SECURES $30 MILLION INVESTMENT FROM GROUP ARNAULT

6. This one seems important too. http://www.netflix.com/Static?id=1020
They started their 19.95 a month unlimited movie rentals.

7. 01/02/03 NetFlix has more then 800,000 subscribers. WOW!!!!!

8. 03/17/2003 NetFlix plans to open 2 to 3 new shipping centers each month for the rest of 2003

9. 12/31/2003 NetFlix has almost 1.5 million subscribers. Most have their DVD’s the next day.

Everyone should go to the NetFlix web site and read through their press releases if you have not done it already. There are many more then I posted…. One thing stayed consistent from the beginning. NetFlix always seemed to have great advertising and great advertising ideas. They grew so fast and had a very rocky start. It looked like they were charging per rental and a shipping fee too. But after a while, they didn’t miss a beat…

By the way. Their patent is on their software. So we don’t have to worry about that.

It’s all going to be in the advertising. NetFlix also started with 1000 titles but their advertising was great.
“The Futures So Bright” is right.

It looks like one of the first things NetFlix did was offer free DVD rentals with a purchase of a DVD player from toshiba. I hope John has something like that he is working on. Offering free game rentals with purchase of X-Box or play station....what a way to increase your site exposure. I am going to write John

We had less then 100 people view our site today.....as soon as the new site is up and the east coast is ready...we need to get moving on the advertising. With NetFlix at more then a million subscibers and a big wallet they could easily do what no one here wants them to do. So we need to get this puppy rolling.. LETS GO JOHN......YOU SHOULDN"T BE SLEEPING....GET UP AND WORK.

[This message has been edited by BetNitAll (edited December 22, 2003).]

posted December 22, 2003 08:56            

I live in the Boston area and found out that their Boston distribution center is actually in Worcester, MA which is about 1-2 hrs west of Boston. When I get some time I will take a ride out there and report what I find.

Thanks again!

j160e

quote:

---

Originally posted by BetNitAll:
Some quick facts

1. 4/14/1998 Netflix opens first online DVD rental store. At this time Customers are receiving their DVD in 2 to 3 Days. Around 1000 titles available.. Sound familiar. At this time NetFlix’s free trial SUX, you even had to pay for shipping and it was only a seven day trial.

2. 11/19/1998 Title available now at 2,200

3. 4/12/1999 Instead of keeping a DVD for 7 days, you can keep them for two weeks. At this time they are charging $3.49 for each movie rental.. Doesn’t appear to have the monthly fee unlimited option yet. Titles available now at 3,100

4. 07/07/199 look what they accomplished by this time In Addition To Existing Promotions With Sony, Toshiba And RCA/Thomson Consumer Electronics, World's First And Largest Online DVD Rental Store Announces New Relationships With Panasonic, Philips, Sharp, Kenwood, JVC, Marantz And Mitsubishi
Promotions With Manufacturers Offer Free DVD Rentals To All New NetFlix.Com Customers

5. Another big announcement on this day NETFLIX.COM SECURES $30 MILLION INVESTMENT FROM GROUP ARNAULT

6. This one seems important too. http://www.netflix.com/Static?id=1020
They started their 19.95 a month unlimited movie rentals.

7. 01/02/03 NetFlix has more then 800,000 subscribers. WOW!!!!!

8. 03/17/2003 NetFlix plans to open 2 to 3 new shipping centers each month for the rest of 2003

9. 12/31/2003 NetFlix has almost 1.5 million subscribers. Most have their DVD’s the next day.

Everyone should go to the NetFlix web site and read through their press releases if you have not done it already. There are many more then I posted…. One thing stayed consistent from the beginning. NetFlix always seemed to have great advertising and great advertising ideas. They grew so fast and had a very rocky start. It looked like they were charging per rental and a shipping fee too. But after a while, they didn’t miss a beat…

By the way. Their patent is on their software. So we don’t have to worry about that.

It’s all going to be in the advertising. NetFlix also started with 1000 titles but their advertising was great.
“The Futures So Bright” is right.

It looks like one of the first things NetFlix did was offer free DVD rentals with a purchase of a DVD player from toshiba. I hope John has something like that he is working on. Offering free game rentals with purchase of X-Box or play station....what a way to increase your site exposure. I am going to write John

We had less then 100 people view our site today.....as soon as the new site is up and the east coast is ready...we need to get moving on the advertising. With NetFlix at more then a million subscibers and a big wallet they could easily do what no one here wants them to do. So we need to get this puppy rolling.. LETS GO JOHN......YOU SHOULDN"T BE SLEEPING....GET UP AND WORK.

[This message has been edited by BetNitAll (edited December 22, 2003).]

[This message has been edited by BetNitAll (edited December 22, 2003).]

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posted December 22, 2003 09:37            

CASE IN POINT: THE IMPORTANCE OF A DISTRIBUTION CENTER IS THE ABILITY OF THAT DISTRIBUTION CENTER TO DELIVER GAMEZNFLIX TO CUSTOMERS IN A TIMELY BASIS... AS INDICATED BY THE SUCCESS OF NETFLIX AND THE FACT THAT THEIR DISTRIBUTIN CENTERS ARE NOT "LAVISH" BY ANY MEANS... DID NETFLIX SHAREHOLDERS SELL THEIR SHARES WHEN THEY FOUND OUT THAT NETFLIX WAS OPENING A DISTRIBUTION CENTER IN A HIGH CRIME NEIGHBORHOOD... A SMALL LOCATION WITH A CEMENT FLOOR? NO... THEY BOUGHT MORE BECAUSE THEY REALIZED THAT THIS WAS A COST SAVINGS FACTOR... THAT ALLOWED THEM TO SAVE MONEY AND FOCUS ON GROWTH AND BUILDING A LARGER CUSTOMER BASE. OUTSTANDING JOB AND EXCELLENT POINTS BETN. REALLY! MACH

*** THE FUTURE'S SO BRIGHT ***
MACH

quote:

---

Originally posted by BetNitAll:
Ok…here is the deal. When I read the post saying the NetFlix distribution center is in Tacoma I knew two things right away. One is…..I hate Tacoma…..so I wasn’t excited about driving there. it’s a long drive from where I live and it’s a piece of crap city. Crime and drugs are the name of the game there. Anyone who knows Tacoma knows what I am talking about. it’s the only place where you could still get a house for under 100 grand. But…it’s a big city and cheep too, so I thought NetFlix had the right idea, renting a huge warehouse for really cheep.

As I drove to Tacoma with my doors locked (it’s a very dangerous place for a white guy n a SUV) I was scouting for the NetFlix “huge” distribution center…I found the street it was on but couldn’t seem to find this huge warehouse. When I finally did find it, I noticed a couple of things. First, right next to the warehouse was the Tacoma Police’s meth lab clean up crew….yep..a huge cargo truck that said TACOMA POLICE MOBILE LAB. It looked like they just busted a meth lab…I was not surprised.

Second…the NetFlix Tacoma distribution center consisted of a building that was about 5000 square feet. I paced it off. About 100 by 50 square feet. It was in a little strip mall…you know, the ones that have a
7-11, small restaurant and a dollar store. Except this one had a Dentist office, a small store to make neon signs, and a hair cut place., and then NetFlix. Nothing glamorous about it. There was curtains covering all the windows and a penske rent a van out side. There was a small sticker that said, “NetFlix, No Soliciting” It was About the size of a bumper sticker. Inside consisted of racks of DVD and a cement floor. It was just a basic building about the size of a McDonalds or 7-11. There was a huge post office across the street though, and I think that’s all that counts.

This is what it looks to me happened. Netflix looked for post offices in Washington that had retail space next to them. Then they chose the cheapest crapiest one available. Good Job NetFlix. They are keeping their overhead low. I am not selling my shares of PGHI if it hits .01 or .10. This company has a lot of potential. If PGHI east coast distribution center just happens to be a farm house, then so be it. I would hope its not, but what can you do. I hope they had the sense enough to put it next to a post office.

If you ask me….someone is going to make a lot of money with the online game rental idea. I HOPE its us.

I will try and post some pictures later….right now my software for my digital camera is on the fritz

---

posted December 22, 2003 09:38            

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marcidius:
FINALLY!! My Lowtrades account is open and I have a limit order in at .029, you guys think this might get filled today? Or should I just do a Market order at .031 to make sure I get a position?

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