quote:Originally posted by RyanPBF: nice post mn. sounds great. Just like with the bashing interviews. I'll not fully buy into it. Nice read though very positive I hope it was all on the up and up.
Ryan: It does sound very much like someone who is "in-the-know", but can't tell us certain things. It sounds like someone who is answering the questions that were asked to him...however he can, rather than someone who is asked a question about one thing and they go off on another thing (and tell us more than we want to know) like the good Dr. Mensah. I have interviewed thousands of people in my life (14 years in the staffing business) and I have learned that people who talk too much are probably not telling the whole truth. He did not seem to have an agenda...however, the interviewer did...know what I mean?
-------------------- "If you go the Extra Mile there will be no Traffic Jams".
St. Matthew Posts: 885 | From: Dallas, Texas | Registered: Sep 2006
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posted
OK I took a spread sheet of the DTC and NOBO to lunch combined the two and combed over it... I am feeling alot better because I personally feel I can poke a few holes in the NOBO numbers. I still have a picture that we are shorted but I do not think it is "as bad" as the 75 million.
I also have a clear picture of who the bad guys are and why Ameritrade is stopping transactions. It is all there just hard to see with the two lists and some generalized reporting numbers fudging on the NOBO. Good new is I believe now that many of the major players we had concerns about are NOT infact short, just reporting "trumped up" numbers to ADP.
-------------------- Una Mas! Posts: 2717 | From: Eville,IN,USA | Registered: Feb 2004
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quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: OK I took a spread sheet of the DTC and NOBO to lunch combined the two and combed over it... I am feeling alot better because I personally feel I can poke a few holes in the NOBO numbers. I still have a picture that we are shorted but I do not think it is "as bad" as the 75 million.
I also have a clear picture of who the bad guys are and why Ameritrade is stopping transactions. It is all there just hard to see with the two lists and some generalized reporting numbers fudging on the NOBO. Good new is I believe now that many of the major players we had concerns about are NOT infact short, just reporting "trumped up" numbers to ADP.
Thanks, Tax - super idea (and great DD)!
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it.... Posts: 3903 | From: Gulf Coast | Registered: Jun 2006
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quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: OK I took a spread sheet of the DTC and NOBO to lunch combined the two and combed over it... I am feeling alot better because I personally feel I can poke a few holes in the NOBO numbers. I still have a picture that we are shorted but I do not think it is "as bad" as the 75 million.
I also have a clear picture of who the bad guys are and why Ameritrade is stopping transactions. It is all there just hard to see with the two lists and some generalized reporting numbers fudging on the NOBO. Good new is I believe now that many of the major players we had concerns about are NOT infact short, just reporting "trumped up" numbers to ADP.
How did you account for the OBO numbers? Just curious
Posts: 559 | From: MN | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: OK I took a spread sheet of the DTC and NOBO to lunch combined the two and combed over it... I am feeling alot better because I personally feel I can poke a few holes in the NOBO numbers. I still have a picture that we are shorted but I do not think it is "as bad" as the 75 million.
I also have a clear picture of who the bad guys are and why Ameritrade is stopping transactions. It is all there just hard to see with the two lists and some generalized reporting numbers fudging on the NOBO. Good new is I believe now that many of the major players we had concerns about are NOT infact short, just reporting "trumped up" numbers to ADP.
No offense but you're going to have to present some form of expertise such as having sit on a desk before or working for the DTC in order to refute their findings.
Posts: 440 | Registered: Jul 2006
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One pattern in the two documents I was able to see is a 3:1 ratio in several companies. Examples would be R.W. Baird and Mellon. R.W. Baird had 2000 shares DTC and 8000 shares NOBO, while Mellon has 20 shares DTC and 80 NOBO, both supposedly had 4 investors. This is pretty odd. Especially for Mellon 20 shares of a dollar stock spread between 4 investors? Who trades like that? I think it is a "seed" number that you would find on every symbol they trade for reporting purposes. When I look at the entire table 70% of them fall really close to this 3:1 ratio NOBO to DTC... That is more than coinsedence IMO.
-------------------- Una Mas! Posts: 2717 | From: Eville,IN,USA | Registered: Feb 2004
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if those numbers really don't have an arbitrary meaning...then what good are they? or is that what you are trying to say?
Posts: 2024 | From: New Orleans, LA | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: One pattern in the two documents I was able to see is a 3:1 ratio in several companies. Examples would be R.W. Baird and Mellon. R.W. Baird had 2000 shares DTC and 8000 shares NOBO, while Mellon has 20 shares DTC and 80 NOBO, both supposedly had 4 investors. This is pretty odd. Especially for Mellon 20 shares of a dollar stock spread between 4 investors? Who trades like that? I think it is a "seed" number that you would find on every symbol they trade for reporting purposes. When I look at the entire table 70% of them fall really close to this 3:1 ratio NOBO to DTC... That is more than coinsedence IMO.
So, you speculate that all of them report based on a 3:1 seed ratio?
You have a long way to go to prove that one.
Could it be that over selling on a 3:1 ratio naked presents the most cost effective overage to profit ratio?
I see where you are going Tax but if it was true we would see this reporting ratio on all stocks or at least all stocks of a related class. I can;t buy it yet....but keep explaining because it is worth it to hear you out.
-------------------- - "Pay it Forward" Posts: 1524 | Registered: Jun 2006
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[thinking out loud here...] In testing times I've always posted my true thoughts and feelings here, I've been dead on about some things like the Naked Shorting BS so let's see if I can do it again ~
This is really Rufus' problem, NOT ours. Hear me out... Here is why Rufus will fight to the end to have this settled. IMO
1) His company shares have been diluted
2) So at price reset, it will tumble. That amount could tank HIS company... ANY company!
Pure and simple. Rufus either fixes this or loses his company.
The problem is, even if every share holder sold their shares, there are still 10's of millions MORE that need covering. What to do?...
Don't know, but I bet Rufus does! He seems awful cocky in his posts, read them!
Do you honestly think Rufus is going to let his company be diluted by 75 Million shares, thereby cutting his own companies throat at the reset??!
IMO,... We just need to ride out one more storm. NO WAY Rufus left something "this huge" out of the plan, "proof" of that is the lawyer he hired and the fact that he has been talking about this thing from DAY ONE, -remember he said to get your certs?!!
See,.. way back then he KNEW the deal ~
This is business, it doesn't have to be "fair" but there are laws, -and Rufus has a lawyer, AND has greased some palms with the Republican party.
Rufus has everything he needs to make a "stand" he has council, connections and AWESOME Shareholders!
-as long as we HOLD OUR SHARES we stand in the fight to expose this "Cobra" in the market place.
Truthfully I was worried as to what might go wrong, perhaps you are too. For what it's worth, all the major "gut" feelings I've had about Rufus have played out, and now I honestly believe the man has had a plan for this since day one!
That is why he has ALWAYS been so up front with everything, cause he already knows what's going to happen! IMO
Rufus stated right from the start in that PR that the PPS would NOT fall at reset! Remember how strongly he made that point! --WHY?!!
"Who in their right mind would say such a thing?!"
-"unless" there was a plan right from the beginning. Is this somehow playing right into what his plan is?!!!
So once again I'll state something publically, "I believe Rufus is up to something, AND that we are on the side that will win."
"Seasoned" traders don't say much because they are wise, the market has taught them that.
But I feel strongly compelled to make this statement that everything will be ok, and on the other side of this is where we want to be.....
posted
I agree Septor... please do not take my word for it. Check it out yourself. I just think it is wierd that all the companies listed below reported exactly 300% difference between the DTC and NOBO. Almost like they BUY 20 but reserve 80... Like they are keeping shares in inventory.
0039 FERRIS,B.W 0309 FST STH CO 0780 MORGAN K 0701 PRIMEVEST 0702 SCOTT&STR 0280 US BANCORP 0732 BUTLERWICK 0361 DAVIDSON 0954 MELLON TR 0547 R W BAIRD 0419 STEPHENS
-------------------- Una Mas! Posts: 2717 | From: Eville,IN,USA | Registered: Feb 2004
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Ameritrade by the way is 278% reported... Etrade 271%, and Scottrade 271%...
But there are definitely some that fall way out of the pattern... Ameritrades MM UBS Securites is one of them. They are 12,340% reported difference between the NOBO and DTC.
-------------------- Una Mas! Posts: 2717 | From: Eville,IN,USA | Registered: Feb 2004
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quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: I agree Septor... please do not take my word for it. Check it out yourself. I just think it is wierd that all the companies listed below reported exactly 300% difference between the DTC and NOBO. Almost like they BUY 20 but reserve 80... Like they are keeping shares in inventory.
0039 FERRIS,B.W 0309 FST STH CO 0780 MORGAN K 0701 PRIMEVEST 0702 SCOTT&STR 0280 US BANCORP 0732 BUTLERWICK 0361 DAVIDSON 0954 MELLON TR 0547 R W BAIRD 0419 STEPHENS
Tax, I do not question your calculations...I question what you infer they mean.
-------------------- - "Pay it Forward" Posts: 1524 | Registered: Jun 2006
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Personally, I think it more likely Tax has stumbled across a buying algorithm rather than something related to inflating the reported numbers.
Here's why...I work in the financial industry and there are such algorithms that are used by various houses to determine effective investing and buying decisions. Could be many factors that determine this.
There is no reason to inflate these numbers and in fact would likely be a SOX violation to do so.
-------------------- - "Pay it Forward" Posts: 1524 | Registered: Jun 2006
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I am not saying that I think this is gospel. I just think it is hard for the calculations to be exact from two reporting companies. I have told you that my job is building finacial based applications. I spend alot of time looking at record set results looking for patterns so I can locate bugs in calculations. An example is when you round two numbers and then add them. If you add them and then round the answer, you are guaranteed to have different results eventually.
I don't want you to buyin to everything I am pointing out, you are right I do not work on their systems and I do not know how each company gathers their information. I am just saying that a factor of one on one side could be used for acuracy in managing books (DTC) while a factor of 3 on the other (Brokerage Reporting) could be to provide them supply and wiggle room in reporting.
All I do know is when you apply the 300% fudge factor, the list gets alot shorter and alot more focused on a few names.
ALL Just IMHO Hope it helps you, I think it calms me a bit.
-------------------- Una Mas! Posts: 2717 | From: Eville,IN,USA | Registered: Feb 2004
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quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: I agree Septor... please do not take my word for it. Check it out yourself. I just think it is wierd that all the companies listed below reported exactly 300% difference between the DTC and NOBO. Almost like they BUY 20 but reserve 80... Like they are keeping shares in inventory.
0039 FERRIS,B.W 0309 FST STH CO 0780 MORGAN K 0701 PRIMEVEST 0702 SCOTT&STR 0280 US BANCORP 0732 BUTLERWICK 0361 DAVIDSON 0954 MELLON TR 0547 R W BAIRD 0419 STEPHENS
quote:Originally posted by TaxBack04: I am not saying that I think this is gospel. I just think it is hard for the calculations to be exact from two reporting companies. I have told you that my job is building finacial based applications. I spend alot of time looking at record set results looking for patterns so I can locate bugs in calculations. An example is when you round two numbers and then add them. If you add them and then round the answer, you are guaranteed to have different results eventually.
I don't want you to buyin to everything I am pointing out, you are right I do not work on their systems and I do not know how each company gathers their information. I am just saying that a factor of one on one side could be used for acuracy in managing books (DTC) while a factor of 3 on the other (Brokerage Reporting) could be to provide them supply and wiggle room in reporting.
All I do know is when you apply the 300% fudge factor, the list gets alot shorter and alot more focused on a few names.
ALL Just IMHO Hope it helps you, I think it calms me a bit.
I remembered that, which is why I gave your findings a bit more credence. As a programmer myself building similar apps, you spend all day looking for the piece that makes it work or doesn't make it work. I would tend to believe that the answer lies somewhere in the middle myself...
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it.... Posts: 3903 | From: Gulf Coast | Registered: Jun 2006
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Alright Rufus, we're all ready for the next step!
I sure hope he's got a major plan. I have a feeling he can't believe this is still at $1, but I think he's probably not freaking out about it.
Posts: 1028 | From: Georgia | Registered: Jul 2005
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Originally Posted by rbirnie First off, I have Ben's number on my speed dial and I have been trying for weeks, I finally got through and he did answer, I was so in shock, I had to run out of my work office, Anyway, it sounded like I had woke him up, I started off by asking if the main goal was to indeed reset the price, he said absoulety, So you guys released the pr last night as a bit of a warning for the mm's to cover, He replied by saying they have been trying to give them a heads up of what is comeing, I then asked what his opionon was about the no action on the pps today after the pr release, he said well the office's that are short and that do believe in our company will be the one;s that our covering, the office's that do not believe in us will continue shorting the hell out of this, I then started talking about the filings, I asked if they are still confident about getting the S-4 and 10k out before sept 30, he asuured me that it would be done, he then stated that the price reset would be in the near future, but he pretty much guarteed that they would meet all deadlines for all filings,
posted
Oh yeah for got the last part of my NOBO vs DTC investigations. If I take the (Diff 3XDTC) shares from the companies listed as "Bad Guys" the total number shares "extra" comes out to be 2,345,372 which is awful close to the reported shorts number that Has us on the SHO list.
Anyway, I have never gotten my hands on a NOBO list before. It has been interesting to say the least to see the numbers.
-------------------- Una Mas! Posts: 2717 | From: Eville,IN,USA | Registered: Feb 2004
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