posted July 18, 2004 19:11            

quote:

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Originally posted by booboo:
This news will make for a good short play Monday.

My predications: opens at .0006 moves up to .0008 closed at .0005.
People will start locking in profits right around lunch time.

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posted July 18, 2004 20:00            

quote:

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Originally posted by rivercity:
just got through reading pr,AMAZING,UC JUST MIGHT PULL THIS OFF...pay date for dividend is aug. 20. does this not coincide with dateline story, i believe termed "stockgate".anyone know? i'm still checking.AMAZING, this will put a tremendous amount pressure on shorts.... already put my order in for 1mil @.oooo6. i think uc has gottem' by the gonads and boy are they going to pay.........rivercity

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No, the paydate is NOT the 20th. There are two dates when talking about a dividend. The date by which you must be a registered shareholder of the company, and then the payout date. These are never the same.

The 20th is the date your name must be in the books to be eligable for the dividend. The payout date will be determined later, which it even states in the PR.

posted July 18, 2004 21:58            

Posted by: zeninvestor32
In reply to: None Date:7/18/2004 8:29:17 PM
Post #of 55571

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

I will reiterate my earlier feelings. The market makers likely have clients (probably some very large hedge funds) who have now been served an official notice that August 20 is the first pain threshhold. This gives the market makers about 30 days to work their magic. These guys are pros. Their job now for their clients is to help their clients cover at the lowest price possible. They will now IMO control the ebb and flow of trading to facilitate this in the best way possible for their clients (additionally the MMs themselves are probably a bit worried about THEIR butts if this thing spirals out of control).

Accordingly, I expect still a lot of monkey business before we start seeing real pops. Agenda #1 from the MMs will IMO be to get the market to believe this news was "no big deal" and thus bait shareholders into selling. The bashing online will likely continue (albeit significantly weakened). I don't expect they will hold it down too long though since they know that literally any day OS could be realized and if it's low enough, it will put a sizable nail in their coffin. My guess is that Roger and Urban have many other signficant pieces of information that will "nudge" the market makers in the right direction should they try to stall out anything too long.

First area of interest will probably be .0005. Could be a 67% gain for many that bought at .0003 and a 400% gain returned to those that bought at .0001. I look for them to work that area as best they can. Next signficant area will obviously be .001 to .0012. A return to this area now puts EVERYONE that has bought in the last 60 days in the green. Many will want to take profits. TA "experts" will claim there will be a retracement (and there may be but only if the shorts decide it will be worth the risk). And many that bought on the recent downturn will want to lock in profits. Depending on how much more information is available to the public, there may be a signficant selloff at .001 simply because many people will want to lock in gains and are still in a "too good to be true" mentality. I look for them to test .001 considerably and possibly even try another rundown back to .0005. We'll see. Their time is limited. They just may not be able to do this.

After that, I have no idea how this will work. This is truly the first time I've ever seen a situation like this develop and I have no idea what to expect. Even the above is just guesswork. For all I know, we open at .001 tomorrow and never look back. But honestly, I expect the short position and MMs will act like the pros they are and work these next 30 days with an aggressive intensity to help their clients (and themselves) as best they can.

The market makers have one small advantage in this. Our fear and impatience just as always has been the case. Let's take someone that owns 10 million shares. Let's say this jumps to .005 next week. Well, hey, that's 50 grand!! Now let's say the MMs (who carefully monitor money flow and know precisely when buying has dipped and they can make a run) decide to drop it. Maybe even back down to .001. OH NO!!! My $50k is now $10k!! This feels terrible. But now when the stock eventually returns to .005, this shareholder is MUCH more in a frame of mind to "take 1/2 off the table just to be safe".

Ok, now let's ratchet the stakes up a bit. Let's say this thing gets to 5 cents! Now a shareholder with 10 million shares has 500 GRAND!!!! Buying momentarily dips, the MMs jump in and tank it back to a penny. OH MY GOD!!! MY 500 GRAND IS NOW 100 GRAND, OH PLEASE OH PLEASE GET BACK TO JUST 5 CENTS SO I CAN SELL. Do you see how this works? Do you see what is ahead?

The last 45 days have tested everyone's nerves. As the stakes increase, expect to be tested far greater than ever before. Right now, my guess is the MMs are mapping out their strategy. Whether it works or not, even they won't know. But they surely have a strategy IMO. One slight wrench in their plan of course is that more news from Urban/Roger could come at any minute. In fact, I expect it WILL come ... as "prods" and "pushes" are necessary to keep the MMs in line.

I personally don't expect much this week as I believe this first level of .0005 to .001 must be toyed with to see what's available here. But that's a full week out of the next 30 days that will be gone. Things should start picking up the pace after that IMO.

I'm excited. This will be fascinating. Today's PR IMO was truly the beginning. I believe this runs so much deeper than most anyone expects. The naked shorters literally finally got caught with their hand in a very serious cookie jar IMO. The penalty may take away a very, very, very significant percent of their profits through naked shorting over the past 8 years or so. As I said in an earlier post last week, I believe when this blows open, there will be a massive redistribution of wealth. I still believe that.

Z

As always, these are my personal opinions.

posted July 18, 2004 22:41            

As for the valuation theories, I post other peoples opinions when I see what I think is a good one, but not too often do I post my own feelings, but here goes one on how I 'feel' right now. You may take it as bashing or pumping, but it is just my opinion as things stand right now.

I believe that this dividend is a 'paper shuffle' between UCAD and CMKX, which really means a shuffle from Urban's right hand to his left. It's design is to put the MM's in the box, and force them to reveal their hands, and Urban didn't have to put up a dime of cash to make this happen. He has played it brilliantly. Now the MM's have to either pay up for the shares of UCAD, or buy our shares up cheap to cut their losses.

Are there really any naked shorts out there? Only the MM'x and Urban know for sure. Urban knows how many shares are outstanding and how many the company owns. If there weren't a ton of naked shorts out there, what would be the use in paying this dividend to shareholders. Think about it, why would he want to just give us that money?

Personally, I don't think he is giving us anything. I have believed for a long time that he bought up all of the authorized outstanding shares for the company, while they were at .0001. If the company holds all of the OS that's authorized, the dividend will be paid directly to CMKX and he won't have to give us a dime's worth. He is going to let the MM's pony up that amount.

posted July 18, 2004 23:15            

I am dropping the 10% rule for this stock simple because the numbers say it will double and triple.

A good diamond pr would really be a homerun. I still think it will be a year before it reaches its stable value area.

posted July 18, 2004 23:22            

Up -

Haven't really looked at it except for a quick view of the release. Been busy helping a neighbor fix his roof and do some plumbing. Next project with him is the bath.

posted July 18, 2004 23:31            

quote:

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Originally posted by Wallace#1:
Those crows were all chomping on dead meat.

Up -

Haven't really looked at it except for a quick view of the release. Been busy helping a neighbor fix his roof and do some plumbing. Next project with him is the bath.

Frankly, on the surface it looks positive. Once I look at it a bit more carefully, I will let you know. Did someone above say you filled in for me? Just may be that I will get something out of 10,000,000 shs purchased at .0002.

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Dead meat??? MM's jumping off the skyscrapers there already?

posted July 18, 2004 23:54            

By: houstontex1110
18 Jul 2004, 10:29 PM EDT
Msg. 45207 of 45237
Jump to msg. #
CMKM'S MARKET VALUATION USING RELATIVITY

I repeatedly come across posts on working up the value of CMKKM. Define value? There may be 500 Billion dollars of diamonds in hundreds of kimberlites, but until you geologically prove your diamond reserves the market is unlikely to raise the pps to reflect that geo fact.

Folks, we are in competition with every other stock in the marketplace in drawing the investors' capital into our CMKM. This especially holds true with other natural resource stocks, and alternate diamond companies are in a sense our principal enemy. NO? If our CMKM's profile does not appear superior to company x, the investor will ignore CMKM. We claim CMKM is undervalued, and the following example supports that view:

One exploration company, the Otish Mountain Diamond Company(OOMDC:OTCBB), has already acquired the mining rights to 75,000 acres of mining claims - right in the heart of the new Otish Mountain diamond region. "And while the compapny"s shares may be selling for peanuts now, the first confirmation of diamonds on its property could easily send shares soaring to many times their current value."

Two weeks ago Otish Mountain was priced at .70 per share with 30million shares outstanding. This gives Otish a Market Cap of $21,000,000 CMKM's claims are reportedly 1.4 million acres; don't overlook they own options on another 1 million acres. Let's assume they eventually exercise a portion giving them 2 million acres. (For the time being ignore the UCAD 5% deal.) Divide 2million by 75,000 acres and that gives CMKM 26 times the land that Otish controls.

Therefore, CMKM ought to trade at 26 times Otish's Market Cap of 21 million resulting in $546,000,000. Wow is this coincidence with today's calculations? We calculated that CMKM and UCAD valued CMKM's minerals at $510,000,000. Folks, UC realizes what I am endeavoring to enlighten here. There is a real world out there which we must compete in and in our case the marketplace.

Notice that Otish has found NO diamonds nor conducted any drilling or aeromagnetic surveys.

Finally, if we assume CMKM OS is 50 billion with a market cap of$500,000,000 this results in a .01 share price. That is. relative to Otish we ought to fetch .01 in the competitive marketplace. Why $500 million? Because UC being an expert estimated our primary asset - mineral rights - to be fairly valued. Given Otish MKT CAP, this appears to be fairly priced.

I predict a slightly higher price due to this UCAD joint venture, CMKM's drilling, and magnetic survey. THE MMs have literally driven a .01 to.0001 and this SHORTLY will no longer be the case. If the OS is one half of my estimate then double .01 or whatever multiple applies.

In conclusion, the marketplace is the final judge of valuation and the process is mainly via a relative comparison of competitive diamond small cap stocks. Whatever you do, do NOT sell an undervalued stock. Make the MMs give us back our stolen valuation.

posted July 19, 2004 00:05            

quote:

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Originally posted by Upside:
Trade Dog,
I don't get your point. The value is the value and if they have to buy x amount of UCAD shares to cover, the end result is the same, much less than anyone expected.

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posted July 19, 2004 00:16            

There is no question that the record date is August 20, 2004. Only shareholders of record on or before that date would be entitled to any dividend. There was no mention of an x-dividend date. Further, the release states that "later will issue these shares". Whenever that "later" date is would be what is called the Payment Date, Distribution Date (or even the Effective Date). Who knows what "later" means to UC or the people at CMKX or UCAD?

I have not researched what might be the true value of UCAD or it's shares. I'm not sure, but didn't they have negative earnings and negative shareholders' equity?

I am also assuming that the deal between CMKX and UCAD is a done deal with nothing left to be determined or completed first.

Again, with no particulars, no one knows exactly which claims may be purchased, why those particular claims were selectedj, by whom they were selected or what is left.

The 1 yr. option for an add'l 10% doesn't mean much unless it is purchased by UCAD.

As to value of CMKX, I honestly feel it is too early to be trying to figure that out. Too many factors involved that are still unknown.

Someone did mention that the float might be about 200 bil if the issued and outstanding (I/O) is about 400 bil. I agree with that supposition. I do think that UC (and/or family insiders) have a controlling interest since they are very easily able to increase the authorized shares of CMKX at will.

I think someone stated that the authorized shares that are not issued would also participate in the dividend. That is incorrect. Only issued and outstanding shares participate in a dividend. I do not know how the Treasury shares (was over 20 bil) will be treated.

posted July 19, 2004 00:32            

quote:

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Originally posted by Upside:
Trade Dog,
That may be so but I don't see how that's relevant. If all of the shares you or I own are actually naked shorted shares, the UCAD dividend will show up in our account just like all of the "real" shareholders. Again, it's a miniscule price for any market maker that is short to pay.

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posted July 19, 2004 00:41            

Will,

Depending upon what that "later" date is, it may not force that figure out very soon. Even then, they would not have to disclose the I/O numbers if they do not want to.