Lots of convection in the Caribbean.. couple models hinting at development.. could head towards GOM.. Expect NHC to mention it next discussion. I will post some more later
posted
That's me.. NHC still doesn't mention this system in their 530 Outlook.. A couple things working for and against it.. Some strong shear to its NE. If it's still there tomorrow, they'll surely mention it.. We'll see what it does.. Lots of waves coming off Africa but conditions still aren't that great.. Should start ramping up soon though as September nears
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posted
000 ABNT20 KNHC 210232 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
posted
utvolsfan13 is this the TROPICAL WAVE that has EMERGED OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA that has the potential of turning into a tropical depression?
posted
Hey 100stacks.. This one is looking like the most impressive Cape Verde wave so far this season. We are definitely getting closer to the time of the year when these form. Lots of models recurving it to the north soon, but I'm not buying it. Looking at the steering patterns, it just seems unlikely at this point. Also, the models have recurved a bunch of the recently emerged Africa waves and they've just continued on a western path. NHC is interested in this one..
quote: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
Here are the model intensity forecasts for the system.. They usually don't do very well until the system is actually formed though..
The next NHC outlook should be issued within the hour.
posted
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED WITHIN A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DECREASED... THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS WELL- ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
quote:Originally posted by juice: just got in this!!! looks good to me from here. Loading up for sept!! GL
JUICE!!! You DA MAN!!! ive been wondering where your ass has been at!! holy smokes have ya missed a great great great trading stock!! Ive missed ya man!
Hope you have been loading the boat down here in the .11-.13 range...Going to go ballistic when a hurricane comes and you know me from experience i normally never put anything past a 25-50% range. But i fully expect to see this pass .2 AT LEAST 1 time before october...
glad to have ya back juice.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call
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Beginning to turn up now with storms brewing. Pattern forming with the stock is the same as the pattern formed days leading up to Trop Storm Chris. Down down down, hold, day 1 up, day 2 up, day 3, DAY 4 BAM.
Storm are a brewin in the atlantic and caribbean with a wave train in the east atlantic. Multiple forcasters are predicting multiple storms this week in the atlantic, gulf, and caribbean. GFDL, CMC, etc.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call
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quote:Originally posted by juice: just got in this!!! looks good to me from here. Loading up for sept!! GL
JUICE!!! You DA MAN!!! ive been wondering where your ass has been at!! holy smokes have ya missed a great great great trading stock!! Ive missed ya man!
Hope you have been loading the boat down here in the .11-.13 range...Going to go ballistic when a hurricane comes and you know me from experience i normally never put anything past a 25-50% range. But i fully expect to see this pass .2 AT LEAST 1 time before october...
glad to have ya back juice.
MT I was in a few others back when I first wanted to play this but I held out. I wanted in between .10 and .11, so I've just waited and now i couldn't wait any longer... im in at .115 with 20k so far. but sept will be the month IMO, i feel great about it and this stock can move soooo fast. plus this is one of your picks, you know im always lurking on your posts haha. GL man
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posted
Unoffical, The NHC has unoffically named Debby as a Trop Depression out in the Atlantic with 33 MPH winds. I havent confirmed this yet, but you heard it here first!
DEBBY
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call
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posted
Official from the NHC about 5 minutes ago....
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212102 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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A new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic, and it will impact the Cape Verde Islands over the next 24 hours; a tropical storm warning is now in effect for the Cape Verde Islands. At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Four was at 12.5 north, 21.5 west, which is 250 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression is moving to the west-northwest at about 12 mph. Maximum winds are estimated to be 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches of mercury.
Currently, conditions in the easterly Atlantic are favorable for this depression to strengthen slowly. There is little wind shear and the clouds of dust coming off the Sahara have diminished over the last few days. The waters in this area are warm enough to support a tropical storm, but not by much, with surface temperatures close to 80 degrees and not to substantial depth. The depression should reach tropical storm status Monday night or Tuesday, and the next name on the list for the Atlantic Basin is Debby.
Steering currents will take the depression to the west-northwest for the next few days, and the waters are not much warmer in its path, so it is reasonable to expect only slow strengthening. However, when this feature reaches 40 west, which should occur Thursday night or Friday, the waters become warmer and the warmth is much deeper. So, it could strenghen considerably at that time. At this point, it appears that an upper-level trough of low pressure will begin to steer what should be a tropical storm by then on a more northeasterly path by this time, taking it into the middle of the Atlantic.
There are a few other features to keep an eye on in the Atlantic basin over the next few days. The most impressive one is over the western Caribbean, where thunderstorms are clustering along a tropical wave near 85 west, south of 20 north. The wave is moving west at about 10 knots, and will affect the Yucatan Peninsula with thunderstorms through tomorrow. There are still a couple of computer models that indicate that a depression could form in the Bay of Campeche or central Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days from this feature.
quote:Originally posted by 100stacks: I can see it now Debby does Dallas! Look for Debby to be officially name at 8:30 pm et on weather.com
No name...has to have T. Storm winds first. NHC 5 day cone looks like crap as far as a US landfall though. UT - go create some steering currents or something - LOL!
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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posted
No offense guys...but it might be bad Kharma wishing...hoping...for a severe hurricane....IMO...many peeps lives were destroyed this time last year
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quote:Originally posted by coalkickin: No offense guys...but it might be bad Kharma wishing...hoping...for a severe hurricane....IMO...many peeps lives were destroyed this time last year
yup...not the "spirit" these were being supported in last year, as I recall...
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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posted
I say we hit at least .14 tomorrow, last time we had a 3 day run and then the storm fell apart, this time I think we will see green every day from now until A. the storm falls apart or drifts away from land, or B it hits land after a multiple day run. let the buying begin!
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posted
NHC FORECAST SHOWS TD #4 EVENTUALLY BECOMING FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON
Tonight's discussion from the NHC was interesting. It suggests that TD #4 could become a hurricane in about four days as it moves on a NW track out in to the open Atlantic. However, the forecaster mentions that there is a chance the cyclone could move more westward than the big global models indicate. If this is the case, then we might not see this system curve out to sea as early as indicated thus far. Right now, the only land areas that will see effects of TD #4 are the Cape Verde Islands. Once clear of that region, the system will have only open ocean to deal with as it slowly comes together. Obviously, we will have many days to watch and see how things evolve. Elsewhere, the tropics are of little concern- even the east Pacific, which is very active, has no immediate threats to land. I'll post more here early tomorrow morning.
quote:Originally posted by coalkickin: No offense guys...but it might be bad Kharma wishing...hoping...for a severe hurricane....IMO...many peeps lives were destroyed this time last year
yup...not the "spirit" these were being supported in last year, as I recall...
The hurricanes were rough on anyone down in this area. But, I am looking at it this way...if I can make enough money trading stocks, I can donate more money and time to organizations that help get through the crisis when the next ones come....
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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quote:Originally posted by coalkickin: No offense guys...but it might be bad Kharma wishing...hoping...for a severe hurricane....IMO...many peeps lives were destroyed this time last year
yup...not the "spirit" these were being supported in last year, as I recall...
The hurricanes were rough on anyone down in this area. But, I am looking at it this way...if I can make enough money trading stocks, I can donate more money and time to organizations that help get through the crisis when the next ones come....
thats a good way oflooking at it fer sure, and we all may as well face it hurricanes aren't goin away , so we may as well profit from them
-------------------- PREPARE TO BE BOARDED
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