posted
Yeah, I've been sitting on this one.. Haven't gotten into it yet.. Waiting for it and NLST to drop.. Tropics are dead right now.. completely dead.. That system that ran into the windward island was doomed.. Looked good on visible and infrared but was clearly an open wave on water vapor imagery. Ran into a bunch of shear and poof! gone. Waters are warming a bit in the Atlantic though, as upwelling is slowing. Also, a couple cold fronts will be dropping through the SE next week that could stall off the east coast and potentially make things interesting
posted
I'm watching the Weather Channel closely for any signs of action before I jump in. By this time last year we were 2/3 of the way through the alphabet already. We're not even into the D's yet and all the major storms (typhoons) are in the Pacific this year. Very odd to have nothing straff the U.S. by now. Law of Averages then says the Atlantic should become real active real soon. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Posts: 669 | From: Gouldsboro, Pa. | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by renrob05: added today at .13
Lucky SOB!!LMAO
Well, guys, i wanna see if i can help out some of the more inexperienced traders, and one way i believe can help out is to post my buys and sells. I have bought and sold this stock (completely in and out) for the past couple months starting in may.
I have recently completed my buys on this next runup, and here are my complete buys...
Current porfolio is 91,000 shares at an avg share price of like .1293.
Anything within .108-.15 is a great buy and should get you great money in a week or so. Trick is to not get to caught up in the hype and stick to your sell targets. Yes it hit .75 last year but that was katrina. The bigger the storm the higher it will go but keep your emotions in check and you will do much better
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
for the record we closed on Friday at : .135x.14 3x2
With about 9 buys coming in at .14. The new resistence level is at .17 and after that is .20.
The KEY point is to buy BEFORE any mention of a storm. Buy the silence, because this thing begins upticking like a frog jumping to a lilipad. It is a low float and the MM uptick on 0 shares during its run.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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Began Jul 24th at its bottom of .108 and started upticking, all the way up to .17 which is new resistence.
Then it retraced as is expected but held its new bottom at .117 and has now consolidated within .13-.14 forming an interm bottom gearin up for the next run. The next run should take us near or past .20 depending on the storm.
All the indicators have relatively bottomed and have lots of room to run up.
Hopefully next run is past .2 and then a retracement to a new bottom of .15 before it goes for 1 big run.
Last short report showed MM short over 1M shares of ECCI which should give us a great short squeeze on the next run.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
LOL, sorry for all the posts, but now on to the storm updates.
For the past couple of weeks we have had a high level of "wind shear" in the atlantic and gulf. The last couple of days have had this shear diminishing, creating more favorable conditions for storms.
In addition we have also had a high level of dry air, which inhibit growth of storms. Now that we have had many t storms and moisture cross the atlantic it is getting diluted and therefore more favorable to storms.
We have 3 storms or "invests" to watch out for. Both entering more favorable conditions in the coming day or two which could lead to a trop depression or storm by monday or tuesday.
--#1 93L is off the coast of florida and is a stalled storm that is projected to develop and hit the carolinas, or hit florida and cross into the gulf or head to bermuda. Could get very interesting if it hits the gulf waters.
#2 92L is in the lesser antilles and is a better organized storm and is heading into more favorable conditions as well in the coming days and could develop into Debby as well.
#3 a Trop wave coming off africa on sat night. Long way to go with this one.
Could wake up tommorrow to something more organized or possible Debby.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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Watching the tropical distrubance off the coast of florida. Beginning to have some convection and a center of circulation. it is beginning to head south slowly which is beginning to worry many that it could miss florida and head into the gulf of mexico. Waters there are 88-92 degrees with LOW wind shear. Look out if that occurs.
Also wave coming off africa looking organized with 35 mph winds, experts saying could become debby within a day or two.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THR ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE THE ONE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND HEAVY SQUALLS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOMORROW. INTERESTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
For anyone still looking to get in, id advise to get in before its too late. This is going to run within the next day or so, and maybe as early as later today. I personally do not see anything much lower than where we are now until the season is over. This stock is inching up everyday with fewer sellers and more buyers. Just slow and steady upticks. Would like to see a close today of .145+
And if you are still not in, you may want to read this link, looks like we will have a trop depression anytime now. Watch this stock fly on that news...
posted
The National Hurricane Center said there is a STRONG chance that a Tropical Storm will develop by Wednesday.
Posts: 154 | From: Spencerport , NY | Registered: May 2006
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posted
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALLOWING SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
Posts: 165 | From: pennyland | Registered: May 2006
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posted
I am going to post one thing today that i guarentee you i will reply on in about a week. Many traders during a period such as this will get timid, nervous, or afraid and either not buy or sell into this situation.
Currently we are .126x.127
You buy here i am guarenteeing you a 50% return within 3 weeks.
I will reply back on this.
You have got to learn to buy the weakness and sell the strength. That is how money is made in this market, period, end of story.
Now stop, watch, and learn (not a recomendation to buy, just my opinion)
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
In at .1288... nothin looking too impressive in the tropics right now though.. Cape Verde disturbance is dead.. The one off the Carolinas may have a chance but it's not very impressive on infrared right now
posted
I believe you... I have been holding since last 2 months. Next 1-2 months will make me rich... i think...
quote:Originally posted by MillerTIME: I am going to post one thing today that i guarentee you i will reply on in about a week. Many traders during a period such as this will get timid, nervous, or afraid and either not buy or sell into this situation.
Currently we are .126x.127
You buy here i am guarenteeing you a 50% return within 3 weeks.
I will reply back on this.
You have got to learn to buy the weakness and sell the strength. That is how money is made in this market, period, end of story.
Now stop, watch, and learn (not a recomendation to buy, just my opinion)
quote: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 152054 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The infrared of the Gulf of Mexico system looks more impressive than it does for the one off the Carolinas.
Posts: 243 | From: Knoxville, TN | Registered: Jun 2006
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posted
A flare-up of heavy showers associated with a low pressure center about 125 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach, S. C., is being monitored closely. Air force reserve Hurricane Hunters are tasked to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. It's possible a tropical depression could form later today or tonight if the convection--the heavy showers--persists. Upper-level winds are light (minimal wind shear) and the disturbance is near the Gulf Stream (plenty of warm water).
per weather.com
Air Force Recon is flying into this as we speak. See if they name it a depression later on. Could get interesting
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Best bet on this one is for it to form really quickly and move inland... Conditions are going to become unfavorable over the next couple days for development.. Couple weeks til September.. a one year chart of ECCI will make you feel better.
Posts: 243 | From: Knoxville, TN | Registered: Jun 2006
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Well everybody don't be discouraged by the lack of storms, so far were already ahead of schedule based on NOAA's numbers and September should be a hot month for storms. Check out this excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters ****.
"The relatively quiet hurricane season we've been enjoying is not going to last. A very active period will start, as soon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. If one believes the long-range 2-week outlook from the GFS model, the current quiet period should last another 4-12 days. Around August 21, I expect it will appear that a switch has been thrown, and the Atlantic will be very active indeed. Expect our first hurricane in the Atlantic by August 26, and a very active September. However, I do expect we will get many recurving storms that will miss land, and that this hurricane season will be similar to the ones we experienced in 1995-2003.
posted
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement from NHC:
quote: REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.
quote:Originally posted by renrob05: From another board.
Well everybody don't be discouraged by the lack of storms, so far were already ahead of schedule based on NOAA's numbers and September should be a hot month for storms. Check out this excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters ****.
"The relatively quiet hurricane season we've been enjoying is not going to last. A very active period will start, as soon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. If one believes the long-range 2-week outlook from the GFS model, the current quiet period should last another 4-12 days. Around August 21, I expect it will appear that a switch has been thrown, and the Atlantic will be very active indeed. Expect our first hurricane in the Atlantic by August 26, and a very active September. However, I do expect we will get many recurving storms that will miss land, and that this hurricane season will be similar to the ones we experienced in 1995-2003 .
Uh oh....without any land hits, we may not see much action in ECCI
-------------------- Disclaimer: Not accountable for anything I say Posts: 6266 | Registered: Jun 2004
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quote:Originally posted by renrob05: From another board.
Well everybody don't be discouraged by the lack of storms, so far were already ahead of schedule based on NOAA's numbers and September should be a hot month for storms. Check out this excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters ****.
"The relatively quiet hurricane season we've been enjoying is not going to last. A very active period will start, as soon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. If one believes the long-range 2-week outlook from the GFS model, the current quiet period should last another 4-12 days. Around August 21, I expect it will appear that a switch has been thrown, and the Atlantic will be very active indeed. Expect our first hurricane in the Atlantic by August 26, and a very active September. However, I do expect we will get many recurving storms that will miss land, and that this hurricane season will be similar to the ones we experienced in 1995-2003 .
Uh oh....without any land hits, we may not see much action in ECCI