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Author Topic: ECCI. #1 Hurricane Percentage Play
Matrix Trader
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man!! I am hoping for storms and hurricanes to hit.

GOD forbid me!!!!

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MillerTIME
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someone asked about last year this hitting .75...

it did go from .07 to .75 in weeks but that was because of Hurricane Katrina.

Keep your sell limits conservative and you will do well. dont get too excited or you will miss the top. If its just a low level Hurricane, i doubt it will break .25, but if it gets real serious and becomes a big hurricane you never know.

--------------------
Buy the silence-Sell the noise
SFTV.004-.0075
AVNT.0018-.0033
FPPL.0034-.03
WEGI. My new Call

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AshyToClassy
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quote:
Originally posted by Matrix Trader:
man!! I am hoping for storms and hurricanes to hit.

GOD forbid me!!!!

LMAO [Big Grin]

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Now We Movin On Up!!

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MillerTIME
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I just picked up another 48800 shares at .147 and .149

Watch for the EOD imo and a run to .2 tommorrow.

The trick is, and i keep saying this, is to buy the silence, and then sell the noise.
well, this is the silence. IF you try and buy the noise you will get hurt most of the time.

--------------------
Buy the silence-Sell the noise
SFTV.004-.0075
AVNT.0018-.0033
FPPL.0034-.03
WEGI. My new Call

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MicroTrader
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Agreed. I just picked up some more on this drop
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AshyToClassy
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Its not like this is a pump and dump rumor. The storms for real and its heading right towards mainland US, Florida most likely. Between now and Friday we are definitely looking at Category 1 to 2 since conditions are favorable. Just tune to weather channel, they have updates every 10 minutes.

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Now We Movin On Up!!

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Lootcifer
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It sounds like a horrible thing to say, but the bigger this storm the more money there is to make in this stock.

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Best Regards and Good Trading

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pennyaddict71
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I got in this one today for 100,000 shares in the 15's I think this will be popping through the .16 resistance this week, then its off we go.
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skip
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just put an order in...
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MillerTIME
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.15x.152

Watch for the break of .16 by the EOD.

--------------------
Buy the silence-Sell the noise
SFTV.004-.0075
AVNT.0018-.0033
FPPL.0034-.03
WEGI. My new Call

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AshyToClassy
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From CNN.COM

Tropical Storm Chris could become hurricane later today.

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- A hurricane watch has been issued in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands as Tropical Storm Chris approaches, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm currently has top sustained winds of 65 miles an hour with higher gusts, but is showing signs of strengthening. Forecasters say Chris could become the first hurricane of the 2006 season later today or tonight.

There were no immediate reports of major damage or injuries as the storm crossed into the eastern Caribbean and headed toward the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

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Now We Movin On Up!!

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utvolsfan13
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Man, I wish I would've gotten into this earlier. Is .15 too much? Yeah this is a stupid question I know. I have all my investing money (not much) in MA and that went up 10% today so I'm thinking of trying to get in on this...
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skip
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I like this for the rest of the week, and the next couple of months as well...Chris could become a hurricane tonight and that will bring in a lot of buyers...hurricane plays are going to heat up...millertime is right, buy the silence...
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SherriT
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I live in one of the areas watching the storm VERY closely (just went to buy supplies in fact)...this one has nothing to keep it from becoming a 3 or higher. Cat. 1 or 2 is usually just a bad storm in comparison to normal severe thunderstorms around here. However, the other thing to note is the size of this storm....Katrina was only a 4 at landfall, but the sheer size of the storm caused it to affect three states. Chris isn't small either....

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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utvolsfan13
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Sorry SherriT but Chris is very small compared to most tropical systems. Also, chances are it will stay south of Florida. There is a huge ridge to the north of it that will cause it to move more W than WNW. Many models bring it over Cuba and many forecasters think it will head that way. Once it gets into the Gulf, it has pretty much no chance of going north due to the enormous ridge over the SE CONUS. Live in the SE? What's the temperature outside? It's hot as hell because there's a huge ridge in place that isn't disappearing anytime soon. Once (if) it gets into the Gulf, it will head due west towards southern Texas or Mexico. It will most likely strengthen if it makes it into the Gulf but will not hit any major populated area if it misses South Florida.

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-Kevin

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skip
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bid is building...NITE just moved to .197 on the ask...
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MillerTIME
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quote:
Originally posted by utvolsfan13:
Sorry SherriT but Chris is very small compared to most tropical systems. Also, chances are it will stay south of Florida. There is a huge ridge to the north of it that will cause it to move more W than WNW. Many models bring it over Cuba and many forecasters think it will head that way. Once it gets into the Gulf, it has pretty much no chance of going north due to the enormous ridge over the SE CONUS. Live in the SE? What's the temperature outside? It's hot as hell because there's a huge ridge in place that isn't disappearing anytime soon. Once (if) it gets into the Gulf, it will head due west towards southern Texas or Mexico. It will most likely strengthen if it makes it into the Gulf but will not hit any major populated area if it misses South Florida.

utvolsfan. i just want to make a comment, i wont argue, just want to make a point.

First off i have been watching the weather channel every hour on the hour, and vist weather.com accuweather.com nat hurricanecenter.com and continusly.

And the hurricane forcasters have it heading straight for south florida at a Cat 1 storm, possibly a 2 or 3, depending on many factors

Then yes you are correct they have it forcasted to blow accross south florida and come into the gulf and hit texas or north mexico.
and your comment of not any populous cities there is ridiclous as you have Absolutely no idea how high or low it will go. A little bit to the north and it would hit houston.

Throw in the warm gulf waters of 88+ degrees and you will get a heck of a storm. just my opinion. but all opinions are welcome

--------------------
Buy the silence-Sell the noise
SFTV.004-.0075
AVNT.0018-.0033
FPPL.0034-.03
WEGI. My new Call

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SherriT
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So how often have you been in hurricanes or prepped for them in Tennessee? (Only way you could be a VOLS fan *grin*).

All that you say is true about the high pressure system and the ridge keeping it moving West, BUT it makes no difference whether it hits the mainland...if it gets in (any part of) the Gulf, it messes with the oil rigs...period. Any hurricane that has hit in Texas or the central Gulf Coast usually comes from the west side of Cuba, or the straits of Florida.

Oh, and last year, when Katrina hit, it was still hot as hell...called the dog days of summer, and we get it every year just like we get hurricanes nearly every year (at least recently). I've had 2 tropical storms and 4 (strong) hurricanes come through my backyard in two years, and have a good memory of what they looked like on TV and in person.

No matter...you have your opinion and I have mine. We'll see who comes closer on Monday....

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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utvolsfan13
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Maybe it has something to do with the fact that I work with the National Weather Service.. but hey I'll shut the hell up if you want me to. I'm not trying to bring you down or hurt this stock or anything. No need for everyone to get so defensive. I'm actually thinking of getting in on the stock. I'm simply stating my opinion as well as many other experts' opinions on this storm. Every network you watch gets its tropical forecasts from the NWS so it doesn't matter what channel or webpage you look at. There are certain independent forecasters that may forecast differently but if its on TV, its direct from the NHC and the NWS so you might as well stick with www.nhc.noaa.gov - Don't just look at the forecast maps.. read the discussions as well.. As of last update, the pressure in Chris has risen a good amount to 1007MB. This is a big rise. Seems odd, since it looks to be organizing itself. I doubt the AF RECON report but that's what it says. I'm not against you people.. goodness

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-Kevin

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skip
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quote:
Originally posted by utvolsfan13:
Man, I wish I would've gotten into this earlier. Is .15 too much? Yeah this is a stupid question I know. I have all my investing money (not much) in MA and that went up 10% today so I'm thinking of trying to get in on this...

quote:
Sorry SherriT but Chris is very small compared to most tropical systems. Also, chances are it will stay south of Florida. There is a huge ridge to the north of it that will cause it to move more W than WNW. Many models bring it over Cuba and many forecasters think it will head that way. Once it gets into the Gulf, it has pretty much no chance of going north due to the enormous ridge over the SE CONUS. Live in the SE? What's the temperature outside? It's hot as hell because there's a huge ridge in place that isn't disappearing anytime soon. Once (if) it gets into the Gulf, it will head due west towards southern Texas or Mexico. It will most likely strengthen if it makes it into the Gulf but will not hit any major populated area if it misses South Florida.
he's just trying to get in cheaper... [Smile]

EDIT: I appreciate your opinion though, utvolsfan, all comments are welcome in my eyes...

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utvolsfan13
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Discussion from NHC

"WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN
EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED...
THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A
HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO
USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS."

Note: The GFDL is a model made specifically for tropical cyclones. It is a very credible model but hasn't been doing that great so far this year, so it may end up being wrong.. but it does have the storm moving WSW for a time into Cuba. Also, I'm sure it was hot as hell in New Orleans before Katrina but there was not a gigantic ridge over the entire East Coast. It is virtually impossible for this storm to head anywhere east of the Texas border if it reaches the Gulf. Look at a satellite image or any upper air map. This ridge is HUGE and that's why there's record heat all the way up into NYC.

--------------------
-Kevin

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utvolsfan13
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Look at the computer models. The only one that has the storm coming close to south FLorida is the UKMET..granted the UKMET has been calling tropical systems pretty good this year.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif

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-Kevin

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SherriT
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I agree, skip, all opinions are appreciated...

Really, I meant no offense utvolsfan13, and I would MUCH rather this thing not come in the Gulf, I just don't think there is anywhere else for it to go.

For the non-NWS employees and non-interested-except-for-stocks people, you can see good graphs and charts at www.crownweather.com/tropical.html, including all of the models utvols mentions. The paragraph he copied from the NHC basically says the GFDL is normally good, but it can be wrong, so use the concensus....of course, the concensus is always to forecast 30% chance of rain every day down here even during a drought. (yes, that was catty, but you would understand if you live here).

Point of fact: Katrina hit Mississippi - New Orleans was flooded because they didn't see fit to take care of the levees. MS and AL got FAR worse of the storm surge and wind, and we are completely SICK of hearing about how badly New Orleans got it. I'm in AL, and I saw two story homes about 10 miles south of mine (and I am considerably inland) with the bottom floor missing or invisible.

Sorry all, I got on my soapbox for a moment...back to the stocks....IMHO, not everyone is following this as closely as myself or utvolsfan13, so I think the prices of any hurricane stock will rise, if not this week, then surely between now and mid-October. Safe play at least if you can consider holding if necessary.

--------------------
Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Thunder29
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The weather channel juat said a good possibility of going through the straights and they also comparied it to a strong compact hurrican of a couple years ago. More compact,stronger winds! Now its movement at this point is caused by the high which could push it into cuba, but once in the gulf it should get stronger(god only knows what it could turn into). IMO once on the back side of the high it could be pulled straight north. I think it's rong to cheer for this so I can only say I hope those in it's path where ever it goes does the smart thing!
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SherriT
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I said ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about it hitting Florida. I said it was coming into the Gulf and that should be enough to keep everyone interested in the storm and the hurricane stocks for at least a week (and or kick off the season to play this kind of stock). A Texas landfall would do just as much as a Florida landfall. Florida landfalls are "old hat" by now....

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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skip
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good post Sherri...

I think people will see the word hurricane and will start buying stocks like ECCI...whether this particular storm hits or not, it will spark interest in this stock...happened last year, will happen again...

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utvolsfan13
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SherriT,

Tropical systems will definitely be on the rise soon. Hurricane season officially starts June 1 but a lot of people fail to realize that it really doesn't start getting into gear until around August 1. There have been lots of strong waves coming off of Africa so far this year, but the waters of the Atlantic have been too cold thus far. This wave formed east of the Windward islands, which is climatologically a bit odd. Normally storms this early form in the Gulf because the waters are a lot warmer. The trade winds across the Atlantic are also becoming a lot weaker, making conditions for tropical development much better. I was looking at these stocks about a month ago but decided to just sit around and see what they did. Today, I decided to randomly check up on them and now I'm the idiot. Thinking about sitting this potential 'cane out and gettin in when another Tropical Depression is about to form. They're usually pretty easy to spot but no one ever mentions them until they're actually formed. It's also usually pretty easy to tell if a Depression is heading for favorable waters. To reiterate, if this thing is in good condition once it hits the Gulf, it should get much stronger. If it happens to skirt Hispanola (doesn't look likely) or Cuba (quite possible), it could get broken up a lot. We'll see what happens in the next few days. Looks like a trough will be returning to the east coast in 10-14 days, so any tropical development in the Gulf at that time will need to be closely watched.

--------------------
-Kevin

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skip
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back to the stock... [Smile]

bid and ask tightened, mm's moving up on the bid and ask, EOD run starting...setting up for a gap and run tomorrow IMO.

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skip
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running...looks like it is going to hit .16...
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skip
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.165 printed, she's flying!
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Hustla
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Local Miami forecaster just said the storm is following the same path as 2004 hurricane Charlie that hit the Florida west coast. Conditions are also identical to turn this into a category 3 which hurricane Charlie also was.

--------------------
Rule 1: Always Protect Your Capital
Rule 2: Earn slow, Don't lose fast

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skip
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little shake EOD, time to get in...they ran it up to .17 in like 1 minute about 5 minutes ago, to me that's a signal of things to come for tomorrow...

thanks for the update hustla, this will get a lot of talk tonight...I see a gap up in the morning IMO...

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Lootcifer
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This will hit .20 easily by tomorrow morning, also see it gapping. Chris will be full force Hurricane by tonight or early morning. Get ready people mother nature is about to make you a little greener. Kinda sad though isn't it??? profit from disasters. OH well

--------------------
Best Regards and Good Trading

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Ya, this is a gapper for thursday.
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MillerTIME
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http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&a rticle=4

Accuweather reporting it could be a Cat 2 or possibly 3 once it hits the warm gulf waters. This is the news that was flying the stock up in the last 20 minutes. Get ready for tommorrow

Appreicate your insight volsfan, sounds like you know your stuff. Only problem i got with you, lol, LSU will take UT any day!!

Have a great day all

--------------------
Buy the silence-Sell the noise
SFTV.004-.0075
AVNT.0018-.0033
FPPL.0034-.03
WEGI. My new Call

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