quote:Originally posted by derek111c: Sustained winds of 39-73mph. Seems powerful to me at this point.
We don't even come inside for that kind of wind....unless it is a Cat. 2 or higher, you won't see much attention from local residents, save the MS Gulf Coast and lower AL since they are mostly still trying to rebuild.
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it.... Posts: 3903 | From: Gulf Coast | Registered: Jun 2006
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000 WTNT35 KNHC 251434 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
The real question is what's going to happen on Monday.... I'm thinking it's going to gap up nicely...
Posts: 2 | From: NH | Registered: Jul 2006
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I expect it to consolidate in this area for an hour or two, then uptick a cent, consolidate and right at the end of day it will have a huge runup with volume going into the weekend.
If the strom strengthens and is still forcasted to hit the US, you will see a MASSIVE gap. maybe .2+ on the gap alone and i am being conservative
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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Tropical Depression 5 continues to move rapidly west away from the Lesser Antilles. An analysis of morning satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have significantly increased around the very small circulation and the very small significant wind field. An upgrade to tropical storm status (named Ernesto) could occur at any time. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
For now, it appears the widespread squally weather will remain south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but a few showers and thunderstorms on the outer fringes cannot be ruled out. While a westward movement still continues, the system is forecast to make a turn more toward the west-northwest within the next three days, approaching Jamaica. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more supportive for continued development, and a track threatening the Gulf of Mexico by early next week is possible. For now, interests along the Gulf coast states should simply monitor and be aware of the system.
Posts: 6397 | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
the system is forecast to make a turn more toward the west-northwest within the next three days, approaching Jamaica. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more supportive for continued development, and a track threatening the Gulf of Mexico by early next week is possible. For now, interests along the Gulf coast states should simply monitor and be aware of the system.Posts: 6397 | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
hold my shares too, I want it All. So far the storm track has not changed at all could be in GOM by early next week.
Posts: 154 | From: Spencerport , NY | Registered: May 2006
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posted
This is not a shake, it is called consolidation and is healthy for a breakout stock. It needs to breakout, consolidate, then run. consolidate, run some more. it is putting in a bottom here in the 14 area before it takes a run for the 16 wall. then it will more than likely consoildate in the 15 area.
HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Thanks Penny for that link, seems like this could be the 1st big landfalling hurricane of the year.
***here goes another guess. Hurricane hunters have exited the storm and have found 50 MPH suface winds. I will give you the confirmation if/when they give their report on the Offical wind speeds.
I believe 39MPH is a Trop Storm
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
no problem Miller, happy to help. I found a really good forum at www.flhurricane.com Thats where I found that chart. Next week should be fun for all of us.
Posts: 165 | From: pennyland | Registered: May 2006
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posted
looks like a direct shot at the oil fields, yikes.. this could get interesting. maybe its time to invest in oil and gas pennies now too.
Posts: 6397 | Registered: Jan 2006
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You don't have to know what any of that means.. just the part that says Tropical Storm Ernesto.. We have our fifth named storm come the 5PM advisory. Significant strengthening does not appaear likely until a later period. Ernesto's heaviest convection is currently away from the low level center of circulation. Another LLC will most likely reform under the convection. The ull to the west of Ernesto, which is causing the shear, should move west as Ernesto does. If the LLC reforms under the convection, the forward speed will slow a bit and it may move a bit more north.. The slower Ernesto goes, the better chance he has of developing, because the ull can move west and the shearing environment will lessen. Once it reaches the western Caribbean and GOM, things should really start to heat up.
quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000 FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
posted
looks like its gonna nail jamaica, whirl around the gulf gaining energy and picking its target. if it hits the texas oilfield area ECCI will boom the most. and so will oil and gas stocks. oil will soar near 80 brl. Thats a big if though, mother nature is in charge. seems like they dodged the bullet all summer, usually when that happens theres the mother storm that comes in and does the damage of 3 hurricanes. Glad I live in the southwest, couldnt handle stressing about that..
Posts: 6397 | Registered: Jan 2006
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