posted
This new storm is supposed to take days to develope, so I think we slowly go up here as the days roll on. The more it develops the higher the pps.
-------------------- trashed and scattered again
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posted
There are several things that could happen with TD #4. Currently, the NHC forecast is calling for it to become a Tropical Storm soon. The models are still turning it towards the northwest, as is the NHC forecast..
There is a trend to look at in the models though. Compare the 12Z models runs on Monday to the 12Z model runs on Tuesday.
12Z Monday
12Z Tuesday
A clear shift to the W by all the models, they still have TD 4 going NW, but the trend is a big thing when it comes to weather models. The newer models do seem to turn it to the N more towards the end, but their positions are all to the W of yesterday's models. Oddly enough, the faster this strengthens, the less chance it has to make it across the Atlantic.. If it strengthens, it will likely get turned more to the NW by a weakness that is forecast to develop. If it gets sheared apart at all, it will lose some of its organization. This may allow it to continue on a western track and eventually redevelop as it nears the Caribbean. It has a harsher environment for development in front of it. The hurricane models are calling for strengthening, but again, it has a tough environment coming ahead.
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quote:Originally posted by utvolsfan13: There are several things that could happen with TD #4. Currently, the NHC forecast is calling for it to become a Tropical Storm soon. The models are still turning it towards the northwest, as is the NHC forecast..
There is a trend to look at in the models though. Compare the 12Z models runs on Monday to the 12Z model runs on Tuesday.
12Z Monday
12Z Tuesday
A clear shift to the W by all the models, they still have TD 4 going NW, but the trend is a big thing when it comes to weather models. The newer models do seem to turn it to the N more towards the end, but their positions are all to the W of yesterday's models. Oddly enough, the faster this strengthens, the less chance it has to make it across the Atlantic.. If it strengthens, it will likely get turned more to the NW by a weakness that is forecast to develop. If it gets sheared apart at all, it will lose some of its organization. This may allow it to continue on a western track and eventually redevelop as it nears the Caribbean. It has a harsher environment for development in front of it. The hurricane models are calling for strengthening, but again, it has a tough environment coming ahead.
quote: A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Another wave to watch in front of TD 4. On the NHC Schedule of possible recon flights on this one starting tomorrow.
posted
The NHC and the models have shifted their forecast track for now Tropical Storm Debby to the West. The weakness that was forecast to develop to the North of Debby is much smaller than the models had depicted.. If Debby can stay on a western enough track, it may bypass a trough that will be coming off the east coast. Here is the NHC discussion.
quote: THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72H... THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE IN PART TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS. THE BAM MODELS HAVE BEEN ATROCIOUS AT BEST WITH A LARGE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SO THEY WERE NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI NORTHWEST OF DEBBY. THIS FEATURE IS SO INDISTINCT AND MUCH SMALLER THAN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE OF DEBBY THAT IT IS HARD TO LOCATE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE UPPER-LOW AND DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LOW AT BEST IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE SAME SPEED AS DEBBY... ANY NORTHWARD INFLUENCE BY THIS SYSTEM ON DEBBY SHOULD BE LESS THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION... IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.
quote:A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
posted
Whats the most North East Coast State the eye of the storm could hit, IS NYC to North maybe it could hit DC or is the water to could up north.
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Climatology argues for Debby being a "fish system" or one that never reaches land.. Of more concern is the invest east of the Winward Islands. It is currently strengthening and heading towards the Caribbean and potentially the Gulf of Mexico in the long run. Keep an eye on this one.
posted
Tropical Storm Debby is slowly gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic. Winds are up to 45 mph as of the 5 AM EDT advisory. The storm is expected to continue tracking toward the west-northwest while slowly gaining strength. Debby could become a hurricane within 72 hours.
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It could be the first hurricane but that doesn't change the fact that it most likely will not affect land. 2 storms in history that formed in this area actually reached land and they were initially moving SW. This will most likely be a fish system but again, the one east of the windward islands is of much more concern to the Caribbean and the Gulf.
posted
Wave east of the windward islands is continuing to become better organized. Conditions expected to remain favorable for strengthening as the system moves towards the west-northwest and the Caribbean. NHC says it could possibly declare it a depression or name it a Tropical Storm on Thursday. An Air Force RECON plane will check it out tomorrow.
posted
Of greater concern now is the tropical wave/low pressure area that is approaching the Windward Islands. It looks as though this will go on and develop in to a tropical depression and likely a storm. In fact, the GFDL computer model shows it becoming a strong hurricane as it heads in to the northwest Caribbean Sea. Even the NHC's intensity model shows this becoming a hurricane. Needless to say, we will want to keep a close watch on the future of this system. People in the Windwards can expect squally weather for the next day or so as the wave and its energy passes through the region. The Hurricane Hunters should be out tomorrow and will give us a clearer picture of what is happening with this system.
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97L (most likely soon to be Eduardo) looks to be the real deal. This system is the biggest threat so far this season. It is heading into ideal conditions for development. If it makes it into the GOM, the western side seems more likely than the eastern. Watch this one carefully.
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144 hr CMC forecast.. Note: 144 hr is a long way out and the reliability is low.. Also of note is that the Canadian model has been doing better with tropical systems than many of the other models so far this year.
System is currently at about 17N 57W. IF it continues to develop, it will affect the Caribbean first. From that point, there is a lot of land that can potentially affect it. The Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba are the barriers to the Gulf. If it develops and then tracks over land, it will weaken as it does so. Once (if) it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, it should continue to strengthen.
000 ABNT20 KNHC 240910 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 845 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HEAVY SQUALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THESE ISLANDS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY...INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
posted
hey guys, where do i punch in my zip code and see the forcast for my area on this thread??? Is that possible yet? LOL just kidding... good work guys, very enjoyable atmosphere in here. but it is kind of interesting that we hope for hurricanes to be formed and hit the US so we make money, no? usually its inevitable so i guess it doesn't matter, might as well invest thats what i think anyway....
so anyway, they say longisland and NYC are going to be hit big in years to come, they always have survival tips on the news here (im on LI now). I don't understand that, seems as though they always fizzle out if they get this far north, so i just laugh whenever I hear that stuff. today I was thinking it would be cool if it happened to me up here and I had invested in a bunch of weather stocks at that same time. literally -raining money!! haha ok im done, GL!
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I wouldn't say I'm hoping for hurricanes.. just know that they're going to happen and making forecasts based on what I see... not trying to will the systems to do anything (that won't get you very far). The media hype about the NE is exactly that... hype. It's the "well we don't know when it's going to happen but it will happen" situation. You can pretty much say that about anything that has the slightest possibility. Even Max Mayfield said something to the effect of, "Well we don't know if it will be this year or in one hundred years." Same with the hype around the next possible big earthquake on the New Madrid fault in Western TN and Eastern MO. I read an article a couple months ago that said "Scientists say there is a 90% chance there will be a major earthquake on the New Madrid fault within the next 50 years." I went on to read the entire article and it pretty much stated that they had no idea when it would happen.. just that it would at some point.. and that they wanted people prepared so they issued that scary warning.. The media can make anything look scary. 50 years ago they were talking about how the Earth was cooling uncontrollably and how we'd need to come up with an idea of how to warm it or else we'd all freeze. Even yesterday, when it was pretty obvious Debby was going nowhere, the headlines on national news channels were "TROPICAL STORM DEBBY STRENGTHENING." Who cares right?
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It still has a long way to go before it gets into the heart of the Caribbean or even close to the GOM. Right now it seems like it may be a bit too close to South America for any significant short term development. The eastern Caribbean has also historically not been the greatest place for the development of tropical cyclones. Once it reaches the central Caribbean, things should really start to take shape.
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