posted
Hello Repo I see you've been in this from the get go. I first saw this and actually had a few shares from June to mid august. It had seemed to flatten out. Whats your take on the rest of the year??? Thanks
Posts: 6410 | Registered: Jul 2006
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Well FRPT had an excellent day today. Closing at $6.95 from Fridays $6.45 close.
Today we closed with a candlestick pattern of a three outside up which is a very reliable bullish pattern.
If tomorrow can close above todays close we should have a new support level of about the $6.95 area which means we will be on our way to finding a whole new resistance level.
The stochastic is at overbought level but if we can break the resistance level tomorrow and hold it we could be riding the top of the stochastic for at least a short while.
The RSI still has some room left in it IMO.
The MACD is definitely looking for a new trend direction and could see the results of that soon.
Volume was excellent today and we also have plenty more accumulation going on according to the Accum/Dist line
Todays long white candlestick was encouraging because it is a continuation pattern that could make plenty of people happy tomorrow.
Posts: 12 | From: South Carolina | Registered: Aug 2006
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posted
Why does everyone think they are going to get bought out or even want to get bought out? They seem to be doing just fine on their own with out needing some other huge company to buy them up. There are countless numbers of small buisness that have reached big corporation status without being bought out.
FRPT is expanding very rapidly and are adding more projects on the table and therefore IMO they do not need to be bought out. Not to say they won't but anyone saying they are going to be bought out are saying it out of speculation only. They are becoming a force in this industry completely on their own and are making millions on their own and continue to add contracts on their own.
If I could see them doing anything it would be either buying out a smaller company with the facilities to help them expand their production or merge with them keeping the Force Protection name.
Buy out? Maybe, but IMO not likely.
Posts: 12 | From: South Carolina | Registered: Aug 2006
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500,000 sq. ft. of manufacturing. Fabrication in old building. Middle building is assembly line. ILAV in last building with offices as well. ILAV line is not yet assembled.
Problem solved: IED's. Existing vehicles do not handle this threat.
Picture of buffalo at Aberdeen Proving Grounds in slide. Picture shows the capsule is in tact. Standard vehicle parts are destroyed.
Desired company result: Troups returning home safely.
Picture of Crew members after 100lbs of IED. Crew stepped out to take pictures. Vehicle was repairable. All broken parts of the vehicle are repairable.
Offer 3 products: Buffalo (large capital piece of equipment in Afghanistan and Iraq), Cougar (base of ILAV and Mastiff and JERRV), Prototype MUVR (going to be renamed, not in production, latest and best technology)
Progression of intellectual property: Buffalo (South African technology, some of the technology is in the public domain). Cougar (FPRT is almost all FRPT proprietary technology). MUVR (All FRPT technology)
Buffalo (4 vehicles per month to meet contract) 64 in theatre. Largest opportunity GSTAIMDS program. Currently funded. Complex program. Buffalo is a central part of that program with a sole source procurement. Several hundred buffalos required as a part of that contract. Increase in production will be a result of the GSTAIMDS program. A few smaller oppoortunities. Actual soldiers in combat are requesting the vehicles.
Cougar: 20 per month but increased as PR'd on Friday. Will continue to increase production capacity moving forward. JERRV contract (joint service contract), 122 original 79 follow on and expecting further contracts. MRAP requesting 1,000 and they believe they have the best vehicle for this.
MUVR: Military is looking to replace the HUMVEE. They believe the MUVR meets the requirements.
The company is making many moves in different directions. IP portfolios. Parts and services. Aberdeen Process approval (they are way ahead of the competition). Use commercial components. Meet the requirements of procurement of off the shelf products.
Business operating systems are being put in place to achieve further efficiencies.
Run chart shows transformation from job shop to volume manufacturing (assembly line techniques). 20 cougars per month has been achieved. Company is now moving past that to expand to the greatest extent possible.
Hockey stick chart of sales. Migrated from Red to black in financials. Expanding markets. Cougar 6x6 can be manipulated to meet many different product requirements.
Gross margins are increasing. Achieved 19%. G&A declining. Going forward, G&A should decline as a percentage of sales.
Q&A What is the demand: New territory. There were no armored vehicles like this. "what's the demand for saving soldiers' lives?" is the response. There is an enormous demand.
Competition. FPRT does not see any direct competition. The buffalo is a sole source award. There is no competition. Cougar: Textron, GD, Bushmaster, German Dingo. FRPT does not believe that any of those vehicles are a direct competitor (they cannot provide as much protection). RG-31 does not have a 6x6 variant or payload capacity. Performance characteristics outperform all other vehicles. THERE IS NOTHING THAT COMPARES TO THE MUVR!!!
BAE approached FPRT for the ILAV contract. FRPT might not have got the contract without BAE.
Gross Margin: Prefer to not comment on the go forward basis. Look at the trend. Each vehicle has its own pricing structure. The 19% is indicative of where the company would want. Spare parts is new territory. Parts are slow behind the vehicles. They have only recently started to get an idea of what the volume will be.
Spares provisions: Everyone one of the contracts calls for a spare provisions. $60-$100k per vehicle included in purchase orders. Known replacement and service included. Spares history beyond that is a bit difficult to forecast. Every single vehicle is in theatre and in direct threat of IEDs.
ILAV order. Requirement is 1,000. But vehicles are by delivery orders. First is 378 and then expect the next bunches to be broken up as well. Additional orders should be coming quickly. FUNDING FOR 07 BEGINS IN OCTOBER. Vehicles have already been delivered into IRAQ.
Backlog: He does not want to do the math on stage. He says look at monthly deliveries. FPRT's aim is to increase volume to the highest degree possible. Contracts is not the problem. Capacity is their problem. He understands that backlog is the historical model for military companies. However, he would say that capacity is the issue, not having the orders.
Timeline: A lot of moving parts. Steel 12-18 months in advance (they reserve production slots and then adjust per contracts). Axels, engines, etc (antipate future production and provide long leads). When contracts are awarded, they can sometimes deliver within 90-120 days. They are looking to shorten the cycle time.
Closing statements: Shareholder presentation. Guided tour. Many vehicles in parking lot. CEO will be there.
-------------------- Stick with Repo's plan in '07 - FRPT/DKAM! Posts: 6379 | From: PA | Registered: Dec 2004
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If I hadn't happenned upon his thread here, I'd be in a MUCH bigger deficit than I am. FRPT has been my saving grace.
I got a little more at $6.55 the other day to replace my vacation shares. I wish I had purchased more, but oh well.
I know eventually I'm gonna really need to plan an exit strategy for after it reaches $10.00. But it's gonna be so hard to say goodbye. (yep, breaking the "don't fall in love" rule).
Jo
-------------------- "Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss Posts: 3387 | Registered: Mar 2006
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I hope I won't be sorry for selling again today at 7.55. Gotta decide a good entry point to get back in before it starts gapping up again on the way to the shareholders meeting on Monday.
Did you get your shareholder proxy documents, Repo?
Jo
-------------------- "Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss Posts: 3387 | Registered: Mar 2006
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C.E. Unterberg initiates FRPT with a Buy and $11 tgt saying the co's vehicle offering has proven to be the only effective prevention of fatalities from improvised explosive devices and because of this the co's revs have grown from $10 mln in 2004 to an est $195 mln in 2006. Over the coming 12 to 18 months firm believes the co will continue to see rapid growth as the armed forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas purchase both the Buffalo and Cougar. Past that, however, firm thinks the co could participate in the HMMWV replacement cycle, a market with an ultimate size in the multi-tens of billions.
-------------------- Stick with Repo's plan in '07 - FRPT/DKAM! Posts: 6379 | From: PA | Registered: Dec 2004
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