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Author Topic: Recession! How bad will it be?
Pagan
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quote:
Originally posted by bond006:
We need heavy industry as much as we need Hi tech.

The country still builds buildings and bridges and

as matter of fact there is 20 years of work rebuilding our infrastrcture. We need both and we need jobs here that pay a living wage.

Sorry, I should have been clearer in my post. Not only do we need to invest in technology, but new materials as well.

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rimasco
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sell into the strength...............JMO

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bond006
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SPONSORED BY

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Consumer Confidence Plunges in March
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
NEW YORK - Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession.

The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

The index has been weakening since July, and is watched because lower consumer confidence tends to result in lower consumer buying, which is a drag on the economy.

Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's research center, said the latest index reading was the lowest since 61.4 in March 2003, just ahead of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

"Consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon," she added.

There were steep declines in two companion indexes.

The present situation index, which looks at current conditions, slumped to 89.2 in March from 104.0 the month before. The expectations index, which looks ahead, dropped to a 35-year low of 47.9 in March from 58.0 in February. The last time the reading was that depressed was in December 1973, when it registered 45.2 amid the Arab oil embargo and Watergate scandal, the Conference Board said.

In the expectations appraisal, a growing number of consumers said they expected business conditions to worsen over the next six months. On the labor market, consumers expecting fewer jobs increased to 29 percent in March from 28 percent in February, while those expecting more jobs declined to 7.7 percent from 8.9 percent.

The survey by the New York-based Conference Board is based on a sample of 5,000 U.S. households.

---

On the Net:

http://www.conference-board.org

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BooDog
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"The index has been weakening since July, and is watched because lower consumer confidence tends to result in lower consumer buying, which is a drag on the economy."

Too bad the feds made it easier to restock inventory so now they will be fat dumb and happy manipulating prices to milk every last dime from us for months to come.

Oh wait... that tax relief check should about cover it eh?


[More Crap]


Nice chfd chart Wea$el!! lmao!

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Propertymanager
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quote:
We need both and we need jobs here that pay a living wage.
We need companies that can compete in a world market. They can't do that if they are required to meet overly stringent regulations; are over-taxed; and pay a "living wage".

We're now only 11 years (at most) before Medicare being bankrupt (and that estimate is 7 years sooner than was estimated JUST LAST YEAR). We also have entitlements like Social Security that we will not be able to pay. None of this factors in the half trillion dollars that the Fed has thrown around trying to keep the economy from collapsing today!

In the history of every superpower throughout history, we see the same pattern play out. The US has already rushed over the cliff and is rapidly on the way to the bottom!

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glassman
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In the history of every superpower throughout history, we see the same pattern play out. The US has already rushed over the cliff and is rapidly on the way to the bottom!

true, but never in history have more ways been available to respond to problems so quickly.

the solution is a weak dollar. a very weak dollar. i know that sounds counterintuitive, but weakening the dollar tomorrow makes debt incurred yesterday easier to payoff....

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The Bigfoot
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quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:
The 3.2 Trillion dollar figure is based off of testimony to congress from Nobel-winner economist Joseph Stigiitz.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/20/2195029.htm

Read this article...it is enlightening as to how that money is being spent.

http://salem-news.com/articles/march062008/hank_oped_3-6-08.php

Still looking for tax related info.

Like I said...didn't have documentation at the time.

If anyone is still interested...my friend mis-spoke. [Big Grin] He meant to say that they men who counted all the beans and came up with the 3.2 trillion number didn't include "interest" on the loans we have taken to fund this war.

Heard another number today. $30,000. That's the amount of debt the average American family is taking on per year to fund this war.

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bond006
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You are paying the same for the import mechandise as anyting made here.

The diference is the tade laws have changed

screw the corporatins let them all go over seas.

And they can sell all they make over there to people that they pay 10 cents an hour to, can't buy there poducts.

So they can lower them to the domestic market value of that nation they operate in.

And further more they should never come back to the USA.

Any right wing idiot can leave with them. After all no regulations to worry about so you would be happy

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The Bigfoot
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As much as I don't like the man very much we need Al Maliki to shore up his power base.

Then we can cut the war out of the budget. We will also need to close down the bottom 10% of under performing government programs. Cut 10% off the top of the remaining programs. Divert half the military equipment budget over to infrastructure replacement. And freeze wage increases in the house and senate until the credit card gets paid off.

I think then even the most obtuse politico might catch the hint that taking care of the nation comes BEFORE scoring points on your opponents.

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The Bigfoot
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As much as I don't like the man very much we need Al Maliki to shore up his power base.

Then we can cut the war out of the budget. We will also need to close down the bottom 10% of under performing government programs. Cut 10% off the top of the remaining programs. Divert half the military equipment budget over to infrastructure replacement. And freeze wage increases in the house and senate until the credit card gets paid off.

I think then even the most obtuse politico might catch the hint that taking care of the nation comes BEFORE scoring points on your opponents.

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Ace of Spades
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quote:
Originally posted by $tock Weazel:
quote:
Originally posted by Ace of Spades:
This is a silly thread...what a waste

We are not in a recession and the US economy is the best it's every been....

mark this post...things are gonna be great this year!!!

"the US economy is the best it's every been...."

Your joking right? [Eek!] [Eek!] [Eek!]

Wall Street began the second quarter with a big rally Tuesday as investors rushed back into stocks, optimistic that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080401/wall_street.html

[Were Up] [Were Up] [Were Up] [Were Up]

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Upside
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Ace, can I ask what business you're in?
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T e x
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lol

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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Ace of Spades
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quote:
Originally posted by Upside:
Ace, can I ask what business you're in?

I'm a Man Whore...I'm in the Man Whore business

Only women clients of course [Were Up]

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T e x
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insincere post, imo...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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beechwood
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I think this will be a serious recession.
What we're seeing now is just the begginning.
I've already liquidated half my holdings and
bought silver and gold bullion while they
were still relatively low in price.
Also, bags & bags of pre-1960's silver coins
while they are still available.
I think gold will go to over $2k an ounce
and silver to $40.

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a surfer
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quote:
Originally posted by beechwood:
I think this will be a serious recession.
What we're seeing now is just the begginning.
I've already liquidated half my holdings and
bought silver and gold bullion while they
were still relatively low in price.
Also, bags & bags of pre-1960's silver coins
while they are still available.
I think gold will go to over $2k an ounce
and silver to $40.

Best move you could have made Beechwood!!!

Congrats!

The wool pulling can only last so long and Bernake knows it.

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osubucks30
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More job loses! 80,000 lost and last two months revised upward!!

Link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080404/economy.html

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osubucks30
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Unemployment up to 5.1%. Although the true picture is a lot bleaker. The unemployment number is a lie IMO!! The way they figure it out is ridiculous!

Link:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70958-lies-damn-lies-and-the-unemployment-rate?s ource=yahoo

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*Mag*
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quote:
Originally posted by beechwood:
I think this will be a serious recession.
What we're seeing now is just the begginning.
I've already liquidated half my holdings and
bought silver and gold bullion while they
were still relatively low in price.
Also, bags & bags of pre-1960's silver coins
while they are still available.
I think gold will go to over $2k an ounce
and silver to $40.

GOLD VS DOLLAR
http://youtube.com/watch?v=z6NfXk7Bvc8&feature=bz302

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^..^

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osubucks30
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The economy grew in Q1. Is that just a lie??? They used 2.6% as the inflation number. (Now thats a load of crap!) The government just manipulates the numbers. Just like the unemployment numbers!

Link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/14032/Economy-Grew-in-Q1-Only-If-Yo u-Believe-in-Santa-Claus?tickers=

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glassman
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you are correct OSU.

the numbers have been outawhack for over two years now...

why? because you can now get a cell phone for 50$ and pay 50$ a month for service. not five years ago ...

because you can get a computer with a 160 gig hard drive for 500$ which in 1990 would have been a million dollars (literally)

TV? a 60 inch plasma for 2000$?
five years ago it was 25000$ that's how they keep those numbers looking low.

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osubucks30
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Very true glass. But people do not buy that stuff every year. The working poor never buy that stuff. But as you say those price declines are what is keeping the inflation number low. Although the "REAL" cost of living is increasing by more then 2.6% a year!
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glassman
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not only do they not buy that stuff every year?

other than the cell phones (and maybe even them)? they are putting everything on credit cards and paying between 12 and 24% interest on much of it.

when they evaluate the cost of a car? they add in all the extra stuff you get for your money now too..

like safety features, better stereos and navigation systems etc. so they say that inflation is not as high as it is when in fact you are still paying more.

when i look at the avg price of a home? about 200 grand? and i KNOW that you are supposed to spend only 30% of your after tax income on your home payments? nobody in the middle class can actually afford to buy one unless they have saved about 50grand... but we have negative savings rate in the US...

the economic issues we as society are facing are not just the price of oil. we have created a bubble in our whole economy by borrowing and not really paying attention to what things cost and how we will pay for them.

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bond006
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Glass just think not only is our government using the plastic but the majority of the people in our country.

I do remember slow downs in the past where peoples savings actually increased there spending went down but they had a savings account.

Not today most are pay check to paycheck and using plastic to boot.

You put the govnerment and a big part of the general population all on the same tract. You have a real ticket for a disaster getting very close.

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glassman
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You put the govnerment and a big part of the general population all on the same tract. You have a real ticket for a disaster getting very close.

so, here's where it gets interesting.

there's only one way from a macro-economic perspective to fix this.(OK there's really two, but the other is to start a WW)

take the dollar to the basement on the world market.

i know Dubya and Paulson keep saying they want a strong dollar, but that will not work. taking the dollar to the absolute bottom and allowing runaway inflation would make our current debtload insignificant.

the "problem" with that and the main reason inflation is more less flat is that wages have remained falt and will as long as globalistion is being "developed"


globalisation is almost dead. nobody is talking about this yet, but globalisation was premised on dirt cheap transportation.... well? unless oil drops by about 25-30% in the next year? we'll see a precipitous drop in the amount of cargo being shipped worldwide.

shipping raw materials and then goods produced from them was so cheap that ships were leaving America empty and still making profits.

that's one of the reasons that this lady got rich:


China's richest woman: from waste to wealth
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2006-10-20 15:42

BEIJING -- As night falls on the town of Mayong in south China's Guangdong Province, container trucks emblazoned with the logo "Nine Dragons Paper", a local household name, take to the streets.

Long after most people have gone home for the night the Nine Dragons Paper factory is still ablaze with lights.

We run around the clock. I've never seen a slack period since I worked here," says a company manager, adding that orders had already piled up into December for the firm's packaging products, which are used by companies like Coca Cola, Nike, Sony, Haier and TCL.

Waste paper is the foundation of the wealth of Zhang Yin, the 49-year-old owner of the factory and its sister plant in the eastern Jiangsu Province.

The first woman to top the Huran Report rich list in China, she has amassed an estimated fortune of 27 billion yuan (US$3.4 billion) by recycling scrap paper imported from the United States.

Wealthier than US television host Oprah Winfrey and author of the Harry Potter series J.K. Rowling, Zhang is described by acquaintances as a "round-faced, not very tall" woman who "doesn't like dressing up and looks like a person of action"

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-10/20/content_713250.htm


people afford to ship raw materials across the world and reship product back to the very people that produced the raw materials and make a profit?

somebody somewhere is paying big time...

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a surfer
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somebody somewhere is paying big time...


Could it be us.....LOL

dow at 13k....painted.

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The Bigfoot
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Frickin A

This is exactly what I am talking about...

Why The HELL are we being so LAZY that we won't recycle our own damned PAPER!

Electronics....I get that there are dangerous metals and retardants and what not so it is easier for us to ship it to Africa and China where they don't care if their workers get cancer or not but PAPER???


WTF!

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glassman
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Why The HELL are we being so LAZY that we won't recycle our own damned PAPER!


interesting question...

quite a few people have been arrested in NYC for illegally picking up paper set out for recycling...

the city makes good money on it.

they even mandate it.

that lady buys more paper to recycle from the US than anywhere else and she gets a deal on shipping cuz the ships would be empty otherwise.

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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rimasco
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I hear some people are taking it upon themselves to steal manhole covers to sell at 10 dollars a clip.

My friend was also telling me auto catalytic converter are being sawed out of cars and sold for the precious metals they contain. 300-400 a pop.

sign o the times

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NR
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quote:
Originally posted by rimasco:
I hear some people are taking it upon themselves to steal manhole covers to sell at 10 dollars a clip.

My friend was also telling me auto catalytic converter are being sawed out of cars and sold for the precious metals they contain. 300-400 a pop.

sign o the times

My personal favorite was in Yahoo Odd-News a few weeks back... Someone thought they would cut down live power lines with a bolt cutter so they could sell the copper to a scrapyard...

The power company found the bolt cutter hanging on the line which was halfway cut, but no sign of the person with the "bright" idea LOL....

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IWISHIHAD
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It's getting so bad that the casinos are even complaining and cutting back hours on employees.

I heard one of the workers answer a question about it yesterday. Someone commented that gambling gets greater during slow times because people take their money and try to hit a big one to get them out of their money problems.

The worker answered that this time around many people don't have any money to even try and hit the big one.

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The Bigfoot
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I know of all three up here. Man-hole covers do disappear from time to time. Converters too.

The guys up here was a little smarter with the power lines. They don't actually cut into the line but they steal the grounding wires of the poles.

Main thing that is causing a big problem at the moment are folks who are breaking into foreclosed and vacant homes to strip the wiring. Major damage to homes that are already sitting empty and bank owned.

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bond006
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Take it easy guys george flight suit bush says things are going to turn as soon as those rebat checks hit
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Upside
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Sign of the times? As some of you know I own a steel service center, small company selling raw material to tool & die shops, machine shops, etc. Sold some 1" diameter, 12' long copper bar stock to a customer Tuesday morning. We showed 15 of them in stock.

About an hour after the order went out into the plant for processing, the guy pulling the stock comes into my office saying he can't find a single length of it out there. Funny, we show 15 and he can't find even 1? Now there's only one place this stock could be located but I decide to go look for myself thinking that someone screwed up and mis-racked it or something. Not only could I not find a single length of it myself but I couldn't find a single piece of any sized copper out there at all. Nothing!

Went back into the office and ran a quick tally of our copper and we were supposed to have close to 3000 pounds of it out there in various sizes, shapes and lentghs. After doing a complete physical inventory, we found one piece of copper pipe that was 7/8" o.d about 6" long in a scrap bin that weighed less than a pound.

So now I've got to figure out who the thief is and how I'm going to catch him. I don't have a single person working here whom I don't trust though. Up until this week I felt I could have left 100's of dollars in cash laying on my desk and no one would touch it. Not anymore.

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