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Author Topic: Recession! How bad will it be?
raybond
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NY AG urges Citigroup execs to forego bonuses
NY attorney general urges Citigroup executives to forgo bonuses this year; cites layoffs
Monday November 17, 2008, 2:13 pm EST

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo says Citigroup executives should forgo their bonuses this year after the company announced massive layoffs.

Calling the layoffs of 53,000 people "disturbing," Cuomo says top executives shouldn't get bonuses while investors, taxpayers and employees suffer.

Cuomo adds that other companies should consider doing the same, including American International Group, which has received billions of federal bailout dollars.

In October, Cuomo's office asked nine banks to turn over information on bonuses. He wants to ensure none of the $125 billion the banks received from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program will be used on executive pay.

Goldman Sachs Group announced Sunday its top executives won't get bonuses this year.

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raybond
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Big Three automakers beg for $25 billion lifeline
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
WASHINGTON - Detroit's Big Three automakers pleaded with Congress on Tuesday for a $25 billion lifeline to save their once-proud companies from collapse, warning of broader peril for the national economy as well.

"Our industry ... needs a bridge to span the financial chasm that has opened up before us," General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner told the Senate Banking Committee in prepared testimony. He blamed the industry's predicament not on failures by management but on the deepening global financial crisis.

But the new rescue plan appeared stalled on Capitol Hill, opposed by Republicans and the Bush administration who don't want to dip into the Treasury Department's $700 billion financial bailout program to come up with the $25 billion.

Sympathy for he industry was sparse.

Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., told Wagoner and leaders of Ford and Chrysler that the industry was "seeking treatment for wounds that were largely self-inflicted."

Still, he said, "Hundreds of thousands would lose their jobs" if the companies were allowed to collapse.

Sen. Mike Enzi, R-Wyo., complained that the larger financial crisis "is not the only reason why the domestic auto industry is in trouble."

He cited "inefficient production" and "costly labor agreements" that put the U.S. automakers at a disadvantage with foreign companies.

Wagoner said that despite some public perceptions that General Motors was not keeping pace with the times and technological changes, "We've moved aggressively in recent years to position GM for long-term success. And we were well on the road to turning our North American business around."

"What exposes us to failure now is the global financial crisis, which has severely restricted credit availability and reduced industry sales to the lowest per-capita level since World War II."

Failure of the auto industry "would be catastrophic," he said, resulting in three million jobs lost within the first year and "economic devastation (that) would far exceed the government support that our industry needs to weather the current crisis."

Congressional leaders worked behind the scenes in an effort to hammer out a compromise that could speed some aid to the automakers before year's end. But the outlook seemed poor.

"My sense is that nothing's going to happen this week," Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., said at the opening of the hearing.

Earlier, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said Congress might have to return in December - rather than adjourning for the year this week, as expected - to push through an auto bailout.

"Dealing with the automobile crisis is a pressing need. We are talking about a lot of people ... and a great consequence to our economy," said Hoyer, D-Md.

The financial situation for the automakers grows more precarious by the day. Cash-strapped GM said it will delay reimbursing its dealers for rebates and other sales incentives and could run out of cash by year's end without government aid.

In the Senate, Democrats discussed but rejected the option favored by the White House and GOP lawmakers to let the auto industry use a $25 billion loan program created by Congress in September - designed to help the companies develop more fuel-efficient vehicles - to tide them over financially until President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

"There was no indication that there was any traction" for the White House plan, Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska said after a Democratic caucus luncheon.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and other senior Democrats, who count environmental groups among their strongest supporters, have vehemently opposed that approach because it would divert federal money that was supposed to go toward the development of vehicles that use less gasoline.

Instead, they want to draw the $25 billion directly from the $700 billion Wall Street bailout - bringing the government's total aid to the car companies to $50 billion.

A Senate vote on that plan, which would also extend jobless benefits, could come as early as Thursday, but aides in both parties and lobbyists tracking the effort privately acknowledge it doesn't have the support to advance. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson renewed the administration's opposition on Tuesday.

Even the car companies' strongest supporters conceded Tuesday that changing the terms of the fuel-efficiency loan program might be the only way to secure funding for them with Congress set to depart for the year and the firms in tough financial shape.

"While I believe we have to have retooling going into next year, if in the short run the only way we have to be able to get some immediate help is to take a portion of that, I would very reluctantly do that - but only because I believe President-elect Obama is going to be focused on retooling and on a manufacturing strategy next year," said Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.

The White House said the government shouldn't send any more money to the struggling auto industry on top of the already-approved loans.

"We don't think that taxpayers should be asked to throw money at a company that can't prove that it has a long-term path for success," said White House Press Secretary Dana Perino.

Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the minority leader, said that redirecting the existing loans was "a sound way to go forward," and that he was working with Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada to set a vote on such a plan.

"The auto industry obviously is very important, very important to my state, but there is a way to do this," said McConnell, who has two Ford plants and a GM plant in his state.

Paulson, testifying on the House side, defended the administration's handling of the massive $700 billion bailout for the financial industry and said it should remain off-limits for Detroit, no matter how badly the automakers need help.

"There are other ways" to help them, he said.

At the same time, he testified, "I think it would be not a good thing, it would be something to be avoided, having one of the auto companies fail, particularly during this period of time."

The industry mounted a feverish lobbying effort to secure funds they said were vital to their survival - and the health of the broader economy. In an e-mail marked "urgent" and sent to owners of GM vehicles, Troy A. Clarke, president of GM North America, pleaded with them to e-mail their representatives in the House and Senate in support of a "bridge loan" for the industry - and ask their friends and family to do the same.

"Despite what you may be hearing, we are not asking Congress for a bailout but rather a loan that will be repaid," Clarke said in the message.

That argument could be vital as bailout fatigue threatens to sap support for the carmaker aid.

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Propertymanager
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The bottom line is that Obama and the Dems owe the unions big time. I beleive that the Dems will bail out the Big 3 to save those union jobs and the union retirees.

Mike

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Peaser
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I think that GM will fail before Obama takes the reigns. We'll see.

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Propertymanager
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quote:
I think that GM will fail before Obama takes the reigns.
That's certainly possible.
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BooDog
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aiq3I0o_SHA

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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Peaser
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Is that bdgee? [Big Grin]

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osubucks30
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STATES ARE IN TROUBLE!! The Feds are going to need to bailout just about all of the states:

http://www.cbpp.org/9-8-08sfp.htm

States will have to continue to cut! All this we add to the recession. Like I keep saying in a few years life in America will be different. None of this was ever sustainable. The sad thing is no one seems to be prepared for this. Don't worry tho the federal government will loan them money(money we don't have).

Starting to look like states are going to have to raise taxes on just about everything. Its goingto be ugly. I mean most of these states had troubles after 9/11 with that mini downturn. This is going to be alot worse. I mean unemployment has already surpassed what it was during that period!

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osubucks30
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edit
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raybond
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Economy and housing sales post declines
Tuesday December 23, 7:42 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fourth-quarter economic decline likely to be far worse than 0.5 percent drop in third quarter

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The longest recession in a quarter century is snowballing, and some analysts warn that economic activity could plunge as much as 6 percent this quarter, which would be the largest decline since 1982.
While government figures released Tuesday for the third quarter showed only a 0.5 percent drop in the gross domestic product, a key indicator of economic health, two reports on home sales sketched a bleaker picture. Demand for both new and existing homes fell more sharply in November than expected.

In addition, GDP is likely falling at a sharper pace in the current quarter because of widening fallout from the worst financial crisis to hit the country since the Great Depression. If GDP does plunge 6 percent in the fourth quarter, it would be the sharpest such decline since a 6.4 percent drop in the first quarter of 1982.

"It will get a lot worse before it gets better," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. "We are in the midst of the worst recession in the postwar period, even factoring in a massive stimulus program."

Economists said they saw no likelihood of a quick turnaround in housing or the overall economy, given that the credit markets remain locked despite a $700 billion financial rescue package and billions of dollars of loans supplied by the Federal Reserve. Mortgage financing has dried up for many potential buyers, further damaging a housing industry struggling with a tide of foreclosures.

Wall Street pulled back in quiet trading ahead of the holiday after the reports were released Tuesday morning. The Dow Jones industrial average finished lower for the fifth straight day, falling 100 points to close about 8,419.

The Bush administration warned that the country should be prepared for worse news to come.

"The fourth quarter, because of the credit crisis, the standstill in credit as markets froze up and the financial market turmoil, will be significantly weaker," presidential spokesman Tony Fratto told reporters at the White House on Tuesday.

President-elect Barack Obama's administration is assembling a stimulus package that could reach $850 billion for spending on infrastructure such as roads and bridges, aid to states, modernizing schools and energy project.

Vice President-elect Joe Biden told a meeting of Obama's economic team that as the economy worsens, the need for a bold plan "grows every day."

Still, private economists said that even if the Obama administration achieves its goal of enacting a stimulus program in January, it won't arrive soon enough to keep the economy from enduring a severe downturn well into next year.

Behravesh said he thinks the recession will bottom out this quarter with the biggest quarterly drop yet in GDP. But he forecast another sizable decline of around 4 percent in the first three months of 2009, and then a slightly smaller drop in the second quarter before the economy begins to rebound next summer.

Other economists are even more pessimistic. Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., said he did not see the GDP turning positive until 2010. "There were just so many excesses that the correction process is going to take a long time," he said.

The current recession began in December 2007. That means it's already the longest downturn since the 16-month recession of 1981-82. That downturn and another 16-month slump in 1973-75 are tied as the longest recessions since World War II.

Some analysts said the downturn could be the most severe since the Great Depression, if measured by both duration and lost output.

Commerce reported Tuesday that GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter, which was unchanged from the estimate the government made a month ago. But their report showed that corporate profits fell 1.2 percent during the quarter, the fifth straight quarterly drop and even worse than the 0.9 percent decline estimated a month ago.

Separately, the Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 2.9 percent in November to an annual sales rate of 407,000 units, the slowest pace in nearly 18 years. And the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes fell by 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million units.

The median sales price of an existing home plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300. That was the biggest year-over-year drop since 1968. The median, or midpoint, price for a new home sold in November also fell sharply, dropping 12.7 percent to $220,400.

The 0.5 percent drop in GDP in the third quarter followed a 2.8 percent increase in the spring, a period that was boosted by the distribution of millions of economic stimulus payments. GDP was up 0.9 percent in the first quarter after having dropped by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that the country slipped into a recession in December 2007.

While a common rule of thumb for a recession is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, the NBER uses other data to determine when recessions begin and end, including employment statistics. The economy has lost jobs every month since January. It's shed 1.9 million payroll jobs this year, including more than a half-million jobs lost just in November. The unemployment rate now stands at a 15-year high of 6.7 percent.

For the government's last look at July-September GDP, there were only minor revisions. Spending by consumers plunged at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, slightly more than the 3.7 percent fall reported a month ago. It was the biggest decline in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, in nearly three decades. An 8.6 percent drop was recorded in the second quarter of 1980.

Residential construction, where the current economic troubles began, fell at an annual rate of 16 percent in the third quarter, while nonresidential construction, which had been buffering the construction industry, faltered as well, dropping by 1.7 percent.

The Treasury Department, meantime, said it has provided an additional $4.7 billion to 92 banks as part of the government's $700 billion rescue of the financial system.

The department released a list of 49 banks that got final approval last Friday to receive $2.8 billion. It said an additional 43 banks received final approval Tuesday, but those names will not be released until Monday.

Treasury also confirmed that it had given preliminary approval to American Express Co. and CIT Group to receive support from the $700 billion bailout fund.

In related moves, shareholders approved two acquisitions that were forced by banks' massive credit losses.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and National City Corp. shareholders approved PNC's acquisition of the Cleveland-based bank. The deal is expected to be complete by late 2009.

And Wells Fargo & Co. and Wachovia Corp. shareholders approved Wells Fargo's $11.8 billion purchase of Wachovia.

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Peaser
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/112658-another-big-bank-failure-more-likely-than -not-to-occur?source=article_sb_popular

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osubucks30
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Economy shrinks 6.2%

Link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-even-more-apf-14491192.html

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osubucks30
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I think any recovery is still far off. How can we grow in the future?? The savings rate will continue to rise and corporations are freezing wages and cut workers! The question is will America survive all of this? The debt is unsustainable at current levels.
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bdgee
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"The question is will America survive all of this? The debt is unsustainable at current levels."

Yes, but try to do without it at least for a while and much of the world won't have a chance to survive. It is nasty tasting foul smelling stuff, but it is a necessary medicine.

We are the only superpower left in the world and it isn't an easy burden in ways not normally mentioned in that context.

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raybond
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I hate to say it but some of these big corporatiion are just cancer it is time to save those that are saveable and let the bad let them die some we will have to nationalize if they are a necessary to the economy.

It will be a hard decision for thoes that have a job with the ones we can't save but I think we are going to be in for one hell of a ride and I hope we get through it

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Propertymanager
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quote:
"The question is will America survive all of this? The debt is unsustainable at current levels."
NO! America as we have known it for the past 200+ years will not sirvive. I expect a total collapse of the economy and the government. The only hope we have it that we can re-emerge as a capitalistic country with some common sense.

The socialists control the government and they are going wild. Cap and Trade is a financial disaster waiting to happen; diminishing the home mortgage interest deduction in the middle of a housing crisis is absurd; diminishing the deduction for charitable giving is ridiculous; raising taxes on just about everyone is insane - yes, the economy is absolutely going to collapse!

I suggest buying food, water, and ammo - while you still can!

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jordanreed
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 -

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jordan

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glassman
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raising taxes on just about everyone is insane - yes, the economy is absolutely going to collapse!

and lowering taxes while waging two wars was immoral.

the economy isn't something seperate from the people...

it isn't the "economy" that will fail or not. it's the people that will fail or not. are you a loser? i'm not.

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bdgee
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He is a damned fool and a 1st class jerk.
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raybond
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What socialist are you talking about PM ? There is none that I see the last socialist that I knew off were in the Soviet Union and they had elements of capitalism in them.

I think you are confusing common sense with socialism

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jordanreed
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"raising taxes on just about everyone is insane - yes, the economy is absolutely going to collapse!"


....whats insane is that you and the rest of the trained seals want that to happen!...whats up with that?

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bdgee
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quote:
Originally posted by jordanreed:
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"raising taxes on just about everyone is insane - yes, the economy is absolutely going to collapse!"


....whats insane is that you and the rest of the trained seals want that to happen!...whats up with that?

They think that having been trained to honk the horn when told and to clap their flippers on command and being fed a bit of dead fish for doing so, that amounts to all there is and all there ever was or will be, so they are busy clapping their flippers and honking the horn, because that is how a trained seal does things.
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The Bigfoot
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Random comment.

Did you know that, according to the census bureau, in 2001 approximately 40$ of all property was owned free and clear without a mortgage?

http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/censr-27.pdf

(Warning the linked document is 300+ pages long)

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bdgee
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That means that approximately 60% is mortgaged or otherwise encumbered, a lot more than I had realized.

A bit scary......

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bdgee
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But another scary thought arises, after a bit of thought.

I wonder how much of the 40% that is free and clear is in arrears on taxes?

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:
Random comment.

Did you know that, according to the census bureau, in 2001 approximately 40$ of all property was owned free and clear without a mortgage?

http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/censr-27.pdf

(Warning the linked document is 300+ pages long)

i would be willing to bet that number is quite a bit lower since '01...

alot of people took out loans on their property...

i don't have time to read thru that now, i wonder how many different people own the fully paid for property?

also? i wonder how much of it was collateralised by something other than a mortgage?

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raybond
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Unemployment in California officially hit 10.1% this morning

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thinkmoney
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What Obams is doing is insane!

How is it that so many are letting him ??
As Usa is trying to deal with the mess, obama says - spend spend spend - lets bailout the banks,the autos, the homeowners who made bad decions and weaken all who worked hard and made good decisions- An, lets spend more for health, college for all- geez- does anyone think that there will be any folks left that wnat to work?

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a surfer
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
raising taxes on just about everyone is insane - yes, the economy is absolutely going to collapse!

and lowering taxes while waging two wars was immoral.

the economy isn't something seperate from the people...

it isn't the "economy" that will fail or not. it's the people that will fail or not. are you a loser? i'm not.

Great point.

He who thinks we are doomed is doomed.

We've needed to end or at least slow down the mass consumerism for decades now.

Here is our chance.

I just said to my wife today that we should be grateful this is happening now while we are still young and robust.

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bdgee
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think...,

All these predictions that the economy will fail because of what Obama is doing, your's included, are what is insane. The economy has already failed and the insane worship of the free market, including your cries to keep on doing the insane things that cause it to fail, is what is truly insane.

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raybond
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Conservative republicans should be called the tax and spend party they have screwed this country up since Reagan. Speaking of him and Bush one they took a country that was 900 billion in debt and turned it into 2.7 trillion.
Bush 2 the real republican idiot took 5 trillion and turned it into 12.5 trillionDebt.

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by bdgee:
think...,

All these predictions that the economy will fail because of what Obama is doing, your's included, are what is insane. The economy has already failed and the insane worship of the free market, including your cries to keep on doing the insane things that cause it to fail, is what is truly insane.

i have to disagree very strongly that people were worshipping the freemarket...

what has been going on is anything BUT a freemarket.


i could spend a month here just posting examples of how larger companies and Wall St. have destroyed competition for money, and nothing else.

the fact is? large corporations destroy competition every day not because of, or due to being better competitors. they do it simply because they were there first, and they can.

Wall St destroys small corporations all the time using rumors and lies that cannot be fought.



freemarketism is just a figment of the imagination of the propagandists.

Congress has been at the beck and call of lobbyists. what we've had is corporate control of America for 30 years now, and you see what it got us..

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Relentless.
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quote:
Originally posted by raybond:
Conservative republicans should be called the tax and spend party they have screwed this country up since Reagan. Speaking of him and Bush one they took a country that was 900 billion in debt and turned it into 2.7 trillion.
Bush 2 the real republican idiot took 5 trillion and turned it into 12.5 trillionDebt.

No different from what Democrats do...
There is no such thing as a two party system... Has not been for many years.

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raybond
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Buffett says nation will face higher unemployment
By JOSH FUNK, AP Business Writer Josh Funk, Ap Business Writer
2 hrs 15 mins ago

OMAHA, Neb. – Billionaire Warren Buffett remains confident that America's best days are ahead, but he says the nation likely will face higher unemployment and eventually inflation because of the current economic crisis. Buffett said the nation's leaders need to emphasize a consistent message, and they should support President Barack Obama's efforts to repair the economy because fear is dominating Americans' behavior.

Buffett said the economy has basically followed the worst-case scenario he envisioned six months ago.

"It's fallen off a cliff," Buffett said Monday during a live appearance on cable network CNBC. "Not only has the economy slowed down a lot, but people have really changed their habits like I haven't seen."

Buffett said the changes are reflected in the results of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s subsidiaries. He said Berkshire's jewelry companies have suffered, but more people have been willing to switch to Geico to save money on car insurance. The three-hour-long interview aired from another Berkshire subsidiary that has been hampered by the economy, the Nebraska Furniture Mart store in Omaha.

He predicted that unemployment will climb a lot higher before the recession is done, but he also reiterated his optimistic long-term view: "Everything will be all right. We do have the greatest economic machine that man has ever created."

Fear and confusion have been driving consumer and investor behavior in recent months, Buffett said.

The nation's leaders need to clear up the confusion before anyone will become more confident, and he said all 535 members of Congress should stop the partisan bickering about solutions. He said politicians should also stop trying to use the current economic crisis to force through other policy changes.

"We ought to defer most of the things that get people riled up," Buffett said.

Buffett said he believes patriotic Republicans and Democrats will realize the nation is engaged in an economic war.

"What is required is a commander in chief that's looked at like a commander in chief in a time of war," Buffett said.

Whatever the government does to help the economy will likely benefit some people who made poor financial decisions, but Buffett said Americans should realize that everyone is in the same boat.

"The people that behaved well are no doubt going to find themselves taking care of the people who didn't behave well," Buffett said.

The current efforts to help revive the economy are likely to produce inflation that could be worse than what the country suffered in the late 1970s, Buffett said.

But even though the nation will have to pay for current policies with future inflation, Buffett said, the U.S. government still needs to act.

"We're in a big war, and we're going to use money to fight it," he said.

Maintaining faith in the nation's banking system will be important to restoring the economy's health, Buffett added. He said President Barack Obama needs to make it very clear that consumers won't lose money in banks even if more fail.

"If you don't trust where you have your money, the world stops," Buffett said.

Most banks are in good shape, Buffett said, and even some of the troubled banks will be able to remedy their problems over time by reducing dividends and collecting the difference between interest payments they receive on loans and the interest they pay on deposits.

"The banking system largely will cure itself," Buffett said.

A little over a week ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders describing the worst of his 44 years at the helm of Berkshire. The Omaha, Neb.-based company reported sharply lower profit because of its largely unrealized $7.5 billion investment and derivative losses.

Overall, Berkshire's 2008 profit of $4.99 billion, or $3,224 per Class A share, was down 62 percent from $13.21 billion, or $8,548 per share, in 2007.

Berkshire's fourth-quarter numbers were even worse. Buffett's company reported net income of $117 million, or $76 per share, down 96 percent from $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per share, a year earlier.

Buffett said he doesn't regret writing a commentary in the fall encouraging people to buy U.S. stocks, but he joked that in hindsight he wishes he'd waited a few months to publish the piece. Since that commentary appeared on Oct. 17, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen from 8,852.22 to close at 6,626.94 on Friday.

Buffett stands by his overall advice that owning stocks over time will profit people greater than so-called safe investments.

"Overall, equities are going to do far better than U.S. government bonds at these prices," he said.

Buffett said he doesn't regret investing $8 billion of Berkshire's money in investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and conglomerate General Electric Co. last fall. Both companies gave Berkshire preferred shares paying 10 percent interest that Buffett said he doesn't think he could get now.

Buffett also said on CNBC:

• That General Motors Corp. needs a new business plan to survive because its costs are too high, but it's difficult to predict how a solution will be reached. "You are in a terrible, terrible time period for the car makers every place."

• Berkshire has made several large investments over the past year and reduced its cash on hand to $24.3 billion at the end of 2008. Buffett said that means Berkshire will likely write fewer insurance policies on catastrophic events in 2009 because he wants to make sure the company always has at least $10 billion on hand.

"My job is to be absolutely sure Berkshire doesn't need help from anyone in the worst of times," Buffett said.

• Any deal negotiated last summer made the sellers very happy and the buyers unhappy today. That's part of why Buffett said Dow Chemical Co.'s $15 billion bid to buy rival chemical maker Rohm & Haas Co. has not been consummated. "The world has changed like nobody ever believed it would," he said.

But Buffett said the $3 billion Berkshire committed to the Dow deal remains solid if the two chemical companies can agree on how to close the deal.

Berkshire owns a diverse mix of more than 60 companies, including insurance, furniture, carpet, jewelry, restaurants and utility businesses. And it has major investments in such companies as Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.

--------------------
Wise men learn more from fools than fools from the wise.

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The 10 Major Newspapers That Will Either Fold or Go Digital Next
By 24/7 Wall St. – Mon Mar 9, 12:30 pm ET

Over the last few weeks, the newspaper industry has entered a new period of decline. The parent of the papers in Philadelphia declared bankruptcy as did the Journal Register chain. The Rocky Mountain News closed and the Seattle Post Intelligencer, owned by Hearst, will almost certainly close or only publish online. Hearst has said it will also close The San Francisco Chronicle if it cannot make massive cuts at the paper. The most recent rumor is that the company will fire half of the editorial staff. That action still may not be enough to make the property profitable.


24/7 Wall St. has created its list of the ten major daily papers that are most likely to fold or shut their print operations and only publish online. The properties were chosen based on the financial strength of their parent companies, the amount of direct competition that they face in their markets, and industry information on how much money they are losing. Based on this analysis, it is possible that eight of the fifty largest daily newspapers in the United States could cease publication in the next eighteen months. (Read: "The Race for a Better Read")


1. The Philadelphia Daily News. The smaller of the two papers owned by The Philadelphia Newspapers LLC, which recently filed for bankruptcy. The parent company says it will make money this year, but with newspaper advertising still falling sharply, the city cannot support two papers and the Daily News has a daily circulation of only about 100,000. The tabloid has a small staff, most of whom could probably stay on at Philly.com, the web operation for both of the city dailies.


2. The Minneapolis Star Tribune has filed for Chapter 11. The paper may not make money this year even without the costs of debt coverage. The company said it made $26 million last year, about half of what it made in 2007. The odds are that the Star Tribune will lose money this year if its ad revenue drops another 20%. There is no point for creditors to keep the paper open if it cannot generate cash. It could become an all-digital property, but supporting a daily circulation of over 300,000 is too much of a burden. It could survive if its rival the St. Paul Pioneer Press folds. A grim race.


3. The Miami Herald, which has a daily circulation of about 220,000. It is owned by McClatchy, a publicly traded company which could be the next chain to go into Chapter 11. The Herald has been on the market since December, and but no serious bidders have emerged. Newspaper advertising has been especially hard hit in Florida because of the tremendous loss in real estate advertising. The online version of the paper is already well-read in the Miami area and Latin America and the Caribbean. The Herald has strong competition north of it in Fort Lauderdale. There is a very small chance it could merge with the Sun-Sentinel, but it is more likely that the Herald will go online-only with two editions, one for English-speaking readers and one for Spanish.


4. The Detroit News is one of two daily papers in the big American city badly hit by the economic downturn. It is unlikely that it can merge with the larger Detroit Free Press which is owned by Gannett. It is hard to see what would be in it for Gannett. With the fortunes of Detroit getting worse each day, cutting back the number of days that the paper is delivered will not save enough money to keep the paper open.


5. The Boston Globe is, based on several accounts, losing $1 million a week. One investment bank recently said that the paper is only worth $20 million. The paper is the flagship of what the Globe's parent, The New York Times, calls the New England Media Group. NYT has substantial financial problems of its own. Last year, ad revenue for the New England properties was down 18%. That is likely to continue or get worse this year. Supporting larger losses at the Globe will become nearly impossible. Boston.com, the online site that includes the digital aspects of the Globe, will probably be all that will be left of the operation.


6. The San Francisco Chronicle. Parent company Hearst has already set a deadline for shutting the paper if it cannot make tremendous cost cuts. The Chronicle lost as much as $70 million last year. Even if the company could lower its costs, the northern California economy is in bad shape. The online version of the paper could be the only version by the middle of the 2009.


7. The Chicago Sun Times is the smaller of two newspapers in the city. Its parent company, Sun-Times Media Group trades for $.03 a share. Davidson Kempner, a large shareholder in the firm, has dumped the CEO and most of the board. The paper has no chance of competing with The Chicago Tribune.


8. NY Daily News is one of several large papers fighting for circulation and advertising in the New York City area. Unlike The New York Times, New York Post, Newsday, and Newark Star Ledger, the Daily News is not owned by a larger organization. Real estate billionaire Mort Zuckerman owns the paper. Based on figures from other big dailies it could easily lose $60 million or $70 million and has no chance of recovering from that level


9. The Fort Worth Star Telegram is another one of the big dailies that competes with a larger paper in a neighboring market - Dallas. The parent of The Dallas Morning News, Belo, is arguably a stronger company that the Star Telegram's parent, McClatchy. The Morning News has a circulation of about 350,000 and the Star Telegram has just over 200,000. The Star Telegram will have to shut down or become an edition of its rival. Putting them together would save tens of millions of dollars a year.


10. The Cleveland Plain Dealer is in one of the economically weakest markets in the country. Its parent, Advance Publications, has already threatened to close its paper in Newark. Employees gave up enough in terms of concessions to keep the paper open. Advance, owned by the Newhouse family, is carrying the burden of its paper plus Conde Nast, its magazine group which is losing advertising revenue. The Plain Dealer will be shut or go digital by the end of next year.


- Douglas A. McIntyre

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