posted
UPDATED: 8:55 am EDT, August 26, 2006 ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
The NHC is now forecasting Ernesto to become a major, or category three, hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Before it gets there, however, it will likely pass very close to or over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the western end of Cuba. It won't be long now until a hurricane watch is issued for some of these locations.
Ernesto continues to get better organized and it has fought off several negative factors over the last few days. One of the biggest obstacles in its way has been fairly strong upper level winds that act to blow off the deep thunderstorms that must develop over the core of the storm for it to strengthen. These shearing winds are forecast to relax to near nothing over the coming days- leaving a pattern that would support another nasty hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I realize the implications of this and feel bad for people who are still trying to recover from Katrina, Rita, Dennis and Ivan. The fact is that we have reached a busy time in the hurricane season and we knew this was a remote possibility- and yet, here we are. Before getting too worried about Ernesto, let's see what happens over the next few days. Right now it is a tropical storm and has a ways to go before reaching that major hurricane status. I would simply encourage people who live along the Gulf Coast, from Florida to Texas, to keep an eye on what's happening. There are plenty of sources of information out there now and you know you can count on us to provide the latest info as well. Should Ernesto indeed threaten a landfall in the U.S., we are prepared to head out for our field observation and reporting using our weather instruments and remote camera system. I just returned from Mississippi where Jesse Bass and I set up a 10-meter wind tower at the Bay-Waveland Middle School. We are now back home and are getting equipment ready for a possible trip back to the Gulf. I will post updates here all weekend long. Hey, at least the rest of the tropics are quiet for now. Debby is weakening and the east Pacific is free and clear of any threats to land. I will have more here later this afternoon.
posted
yea, lookin more and more like its gonna hit the gulf, i cant even imagine the firestorm on wall street if this hurricane is big and nails the refineries along texas and so on. Combined with iran fears... oil will skyrocket. and nat. gas too imo
and so will ECCI....
Posts: 6397 | Registered: Jan 2006
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quote:000 WTNT45 KNHC 261454 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS.
IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
posted
The centers of tropical cyclones tend to dodge Jamaica.. The mountainous terrain often acts to make the centers of the systems wobble around the island. Not to say, Jamaica doesn't get the wind and damage... the centers just often miss it.
posted
The track forecast is subject to a VERY high amount of error once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The models are all over the place.
Definitely wouldn't say it's forecast to head towards New Orleans at this point. Even the NHC discussion says that their forecast once the system reaches the GOM could be way off. It depends on several factors. Just gotta wait and see
quote:Originally posted by cactus33: yea, lookin more and more like its gonna hit the gulf, i cant even imagine the firestorm on wall street if this hurricane is big and nails the refineries along texas and so on. Combined with iran fears... oil will skyrocket. and nat. gas too imo
and so will ECCI....
Whats a good oil company to get into in the pennies for a hurricane in the gulf?
-------------------- Disclaimer: Not accountable for anything I say Posts: 6266 | Registered: Jun 2004
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posted
The model forecasts are usually way off for hurricanes until a day or two before landfall.. obviously the model initialization data is sparse over water.. even near islands its not as good since not all countries have weather observing networks like we do. The models are only as good as the data that goes into them. I remember a couple years ago when I was still in school we had to plot the actual track of hurricanes VS the model positions for the entire track of a storm because our professor wanted us to see just how far off the models usually are for long range forecast. Usually 3-5 day forecasts are off by several hundred miles. I just got into ECCI on friday even though I've been watching it for a while. I've been waiting for a storm like this that has a pretty good chance of making landfall of a hurricane, due to the odds I doubt it'll be near as devastating as Katrina (although anything is possible) but even if its not the hype alone as it approaches the Gulf States should make for a decent run. Ernesto should hit land as a hurricane as long as the forecast of low wind shear continues, however thats subject to change too. The intensity forecasts can be off just as much as the track forecasts.
If you go on wikipeda (what a great site) and search tropical cyclone prediction model it'll give you some basic information on the models shown in ut's picture above it also has a link on the bottom to a good NWS site that explains the track and intensity models.
Posts: 81 | From: Green Bay, WI | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
getting a lot of press, and people are getting worried that it will plow into the big easy. not sure if they can handle another blast right now..
mixed opinions out there about the levees
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posted
The probabilities of it making a direct hit on NO is pretty low.. possible but theres alot of coastline there for it to hit. the forecasted track will most likely bounce around the next few days before getting more consistent as time goes on. Theres no certainty it'll be a major hurricane either. Right now the day 5 intensity forecast shows it to probobaly be a cat 1 hurricane it'll depend on the exact track and how much time it'll have to strengthen in the gulf i.e. if it moves hard north once in the gulf and right into land there wont be alot of time for it to pick up strength. The problem with watching the weather channel and major news stations is that they treat every hurricane now like Katrina, mostly for ratings purposes. Keep in mind Katrina is the most expensive hurricane to ever hit land, the conditions for that to happen again would have to be just right. For example if a category one hurricane hits the Florida panhandle which is a area much better prepared to handle hurricanes than the LA coast the damage done will pale in comparison to what happened in NO and the cost will be much less. Although damage on the scale of what happened in NO will happen again the odds are it won't be Ernesto. The stock will most likely rise but don't count on the stock hitting the price it did last September. I'm going to look for a nice gain on the hype and possible moderate damage for now unless the forecast in a few days does still have Ernesto hitting a ill prepared area as a storm of good intensity.
This is just IMO though and its based more on my knowledge of weather than stocks. I suppose the hype alone from any landfalling hurricane could bring it to the high of last year, but I would think it would take a storm with similar damage estimates of Katrina to do it.
Posts: 81 | From: Green Bay, WI | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
good info duck, but on the other hand, you always want to take stuff like this very seriously after the katrina disaster. a lot of people downplayed katrina and we all saw what happened. Thats why its being heavily covered in the press. Plus the fact that there is even a chance of hitting new orleans is freaky. just dont think they are ready. Im seeing that this will be cat 3, not 1.. but its anyones guess. Chances are ernesto will be underestimated and people will be bumper to bumper again trying to flee. I hope not, I dont want death, just people that want ECCI water to drink ect.
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NEW ORLEANS - The head of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conceded Saturday that despite aggressive efforts to repair the levee system in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, it was unclear whether the it could hold up to a sizable hurricane this year.
Lt. General Carl Strock, the commander of the Corps, said the agency was carefully tracking Tropical Storm Ernesto, which was spinning in the Caribbean and projected to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday.
He was confident the Corps had done all it could to repair and reinforce 220 miles of levee walls, but he conceded he couldn't be sure whether the system would withstand Ernesto if reached Category 3 status and struck near New Orleans, as Katrina did Aug. 29, 2005.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco, who appeared at a news conference with Strock, said her office was carefully watching the storm and would order evacuations it they became necessary.
She said that although she is not happy with the current strength of the levee system, she believes as much work as possible was done in the year since Katrina.
It was too soon Saturday to predict whether Ernesto would hit the United States, said Michael Brennan, a meteorologist with the hurricane center in Miam
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posted
If it does go their way lets hope everyone figured out the roof of your house is not a good hurricane shelter.
Posts: 81 | From: Green Bay, WI | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
intersting points in the article which was released 1 hr ago
Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore in Louisiana last August 29 and devastated the city of New Orleans by breaching its levees. It killed around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), Ernesto's maximum sustained winds had risen to 60 mph (95 kph) and it was moving toward the west-northwest at about 13 mph (20 kph).
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MIAMI (Reuters) - The fifth tropical storm of the Atlantic season, Ernesto, could become a dangerously powerful hurricane in the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico next week around the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, U.S. forecasters said on Saturday.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said forecasting Ernesto's future strength was riddled with uncertainty.
But very warm waters in its path as it approached the Gulf, where a quarter of U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is located, could lead to significant strengthening, the Miami-based center said.
"This could result in Ernesto becoming a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico," said hurricane center forecaster Lixion Avila in a bulletin.
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issued hurricane watches as Ernesto bore down. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions can be expected within 36 hours.
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posted
ARRRGGGGHHHHHH Can I just say I am SICK of hearing about New Orleans. Yes, they don't need to be hit again, but do you think the MS coast does, or AL coast does? AL has been hit with 3 storms all Cat. 3 or higher in the last 2 years, including Katrina.
All I can say is, I hope that ECCI makes a good return because I just may need it to go toward my hurricane deductible.
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it.... Posts: 3903 | From: Gulf Coast | Registered: Jun 2006
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quote:Originally posted by weatherbill: intersting points in the article which was released 1 hr ago
Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore in Louisiana last August 29 and devastated the city of New Orleans by breaching its levees. It killed around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), Ernesto's maximum sustained winds had risen to 60 mph (95 kph) and it was moving toward the west-northwest at about 13 mph (20 kph).
some models say this could become a CAT4 storm, stronger than Katrina....if so, man oh man......hold tight
I may be wrong, but I think that article was incorrect. As Katrina approached, they kept comparing it to Camille from 1969 because they were both Cat. 5 storms, and Katrina had one of the lowest pressure readings on record, if not the lowest. It was a Cat. 4 when it made landfall...
It really is a mute point this year, because if Ernesto even hits Cat. 3 strength, with the state of things all along the central Gulf, it won't take much.
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it.... Posts: 3903 | From: Gulf Coast | Registered: Jun 2006
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posted
The current models have it hitting land 6 days from now on Friday around Noon et. The effects won't be felt until then and I think ECCI will be taking off really BIG the following week about 10 days from now. Until then this upcoming week I still think this could fly, but if you want to get above .50 youre gonna have to wait until the 10 days I previously mentioned.
Posts: 154 | From: Spencerport , NY | Registered: May 2006
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posted
I say within 15 minutes of the open you will see it at or near .2. This is the real deal folks, and on the Trop Storm Chris alone it hit .17. Now were talking about a Cat 3 Hurricane hitting LA, MS, AL or FL. The buying pressure on this stock will be enormous.
Couple that with the fact that nobody in their right mind would really be selling too much on monday with it intensifying throughout the week.
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call Posts: 3100 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
You could be right, you have no chance of me selling early to mid week. Good statement no one will be selling. Who knows this could get crazy, few knew about this stock last year, now everyone knows about it. Do you think we could see the volume over 10 million any day next week?
Posts: 154 | From: Spencerport , NY | Registered: May 2006
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