posted
You're not alone. I'm trying to think this one through. The volume is still pretty low, accumulation is up, but not drastically. The full stoch is moving upward and is crossing and the money flow is positive. We've broken the major resistance and 2 others above it (very minor ones mind you). I'm afraid we're in for a decent move up for the next few days. I still see a good move down in the future though and I'll probably look to double down.
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So now we watch as the old high is tested, around $44.50. Look back and see this pattern, long term everything is still in place IMO. If we don't go over that we'll head right back to where we were going ~
This is another reason why I like to be at the extreme end and say to stay away from middle plays. Oh well, that's why the account is divided up!
posted
How do you guys keep up with this stuff? It's a busy time of year for me right now, I may have to put off learning options until things slow down. Thank you all for your help.
posted
Lookin? I work full time and have two small children at home...for starters. It is just something I want to learn, so I peek at it at least a few times a day. Learn the charts and the stocks first IMHO...
Good Luck!
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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posted
I'm having a crappy day and my brain is just not functioning well...would you mind getting a little more specific about the gap (assuming you mean the gap up from yesterday's close), why to play with a three month option, etc.
Of note, June is basically a three month option now since we are getting closer to expiration...
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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posted
I added the April 43 put to my streamer this morngin just to see what could be done with a gap play. I'd like to hear more about the 3 month out choice on a gap play as well.
So far, the April 43 is down 30% from my theoretical buy in (.30, now trading at .20).
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When playing a "gap" one might be tempted to buy a cheaper "next month" option. I like to be a safe, that's why I mentioned that I would buy 3 month options. In looking at the past 3 months was enough time for the longer ones to close.
Most close the same day, a 3 month is an insurance policy
posted
Mind if I join the group? I like this you don't have to watch it every minute. Not to much to say at first but Iwill be following . Thanks Chart
-------------------- Let's Go METS!!!
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posted
The more I sit and ponder, the more I realize I am missing out on some good money swinging options...I think I will start posting my trades, and maybe it will help someone else too...
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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You know it really can be as simple as buying CALLS when the Stochastic falls below the 20% line (6 mo) and Puts when Stochastic goes over 80% and crosses negative.
-6 month just to be safe- wink!
Then watch it drop or rise and if a "stagger step" happens like now (that is Stochastic doesn't go straight down or up) then sell or ride it out. Look how accurate your trades will be if you only do that.... When it's in the middle of the Stochastic indicator (Dec 11th) then take a couple days off WAIT to pull the trigger!
I think the biggest thing with trading the cubes is WAITING for your trade! The more extreme it gets the better the bounce IMO ~
Two choices looks like...
Lazy way. You can go Long by buying a 6-9 month Call option on an extreme Stochastic crossover on a weekly chart and riding it out.
or...
Aggressive. Or you can watch a daily chart's Stochastic oversold/overbought indicator for buys and sells...
It's really as simple as that ~
The cubes today didn't cross the old high of about $44.50 so everything is still looking weak until that happens... IMO
You know it really can be as simple as buying CALLS when the Stochastic falls below the 20% line (6 mo) and Puts when Stochastic goes over 80% and crosses negative.
-6 month just to be safe- wink!
Then watch it drop or rise and if a "stagger step" happens like now (that is Stochastic doesn't go straight down or up) then sell or ride it out. Look how accurate your trades will be if you only do that.... When it's in the middle of the Stochastic indicator (Dec 11th) then take a couple days off WAIT to pull the trigger!
I think the biggest thing with trading the cubes is WAITING for your trade! The more extreme it gets the better the bounce IMO ~
Two choices looks like...
Lazy way. You can go Long by buying a 6-9 month Call option on an extreme Stochastic crossover on a weekly chart and riding it out.
or...
Aggressive. Or you can watch a daily chart's Stochastic oversold/overbought indicator for buys and sells...
It's really as simple as that ~
The cubes today didn't cross the old high of about $44.50 so everything is still looking weak until that happens... IMO
G-night board!
Chart ~
Chart I think your on to something. lol I love this stuff. Your the best!
-------------------- Let's Go METS!!!
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I absolutely hate 'em, but it looks like they are headed for more big bucks over the summer....chart isn't all that much to write home about, BUT....man, wouldn't you like to have understood options last summer...can you even calculate how much money THAT would have been?
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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LOL ~ From your link: "Smart Money Sides With Bears"
Saaweeeet!
Well once you know a handful of indicators and that they monitor things, -just like a doctor would monitor a patient, then it's kind'a like cheating!! LMAO ~ You know when one's healthy or when it's about to have a heart attack!
I was going to post a very detailed option strategy, there are many rules and things to watch and it took me awhile to grasp it... But it boils down to this...
Option players are looking for the perfect "safari trade" (one you can place and go on a safari cause it's so good you don't need to worry about it) however, the more they try to take out the risk the more complicated it becomes and the more it effects your profit, -you just don't make as much as when you buy a straight Call or Put, PERIOD.
Trouble is many don't know about indicators, some know about charts and drawing trendlines, but that's only half the story. Trendlines won't tell you if it's overbought or oversold. Trendlines won't give you exact buy in points and sells either...
So needless to say the 27 PAGE strategy I'm not going to write out and post... -no point.
I like what I came up with (if I can toot my own horn
And I stated what that is right above this post with the "lazy way" and the "Aggressive way."
Just be sure to divide your account up into 3 or 4 "lots" and trade one of them at a time. We may fire off 2 or 3 Calls or Puts at these pivot points and we will have a "lot" left to play Gap plays.
Rules: Buy 6-9 month out options on our Calls and Puts and ALWAYS selling with 1 month to go -or sooner, -time decays options, -worse in the last month. And buying 3 month options for the gap plays (or be super safe and buy 6-9 month options for gap plays as well, -your call).
$43.60 and the gap closes btw...
So there, there are my findings to looking into this options business. Option players try to "set up plays" that will allow them to win no matter what the market does by trying to constantly keep a DELTA NEUTRAL position with their spreads, they do this by constantly selling or buying back options. Alot of work!
But if you truly can figure out a way to predict the market with any kind of accuracy with a trading "system" that luck has NOTHING to do with, then IMO you have the best options trading system because it will perform as it has backtested.
And my "extreme top/bottom" strategy I would put up against any of them, lazy way or the aggressive way.... -and it's SIMPLE!!
So, next what do you say we start flipping these babies?!!!
We'll run a straight chart, nothing fancy and simply flip according to the Stochastic indicator (being sure the other indicators confirm) and see what happen$
For people who may not know about charting and indicators I'll post links as we go. That's the best way to learn anyway IMO.
So, guess I'll see you all next time Stochastic hits a 20% or a 80% level ~
posted
I think flipping is a superb idea, Chart, and I would put the simple puts and calls up against any system too...I've seen it work, just didn't sell
I agree, milliam...let's start another thread that uses one stock, QQQQ seems to be our favorite, OK with everyone? And let's learn how to flip Lead on Chart! LOL
HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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posted
It looks like she still has some legs running to the upside. The full stoch is still heading upward, but should be toward the top by the first of next week.
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posted
Well, my luck continues - I dumped out of my AMD calls on Friday - they announce first quarter news this morning, and it is already up .50 pre-market....go figure
Oh well....I will learn one day.
-------------------- Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....
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