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Author Topic: Option Pic's lounge ~
lookin2trade
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Hi SherriT, it is overwhelming for me right now as I am just a beginner. I hope "Chart" can guide me to the money. I keep going back to page 1 to try to grasp the idea. Should I first learn to read charts?
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SherriT
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I would not try to trade options until you have a firm grasp of 1) trading stocks in general, and 2) reading charts. You will end up losing your tail in options (I think) unless you can pick good purchases. Nothing is guaranteed, but at least charts can give you educated guesses.

Fair assessment all?

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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Good Morning Board [Smile]

First, thx [blush] [Big Grin]
As promised below.
Working on the first option "set up" also.
This first part is done a nice summary of where we are ~

Have a great day all!

Chart ~

[FYI -This material I’m writing off line and pasting here at a later date when completed, I will do this as each is completed]

In this on going learning process, -which is what this is, we take an idea, then “attack” it and see if it stands, -everyone here helps to sharpen our trading idea’s.

The basic’s are PUTS and CALLS, and the SAFEST ones IMO are the ones at what I call “extreme” tops or bottoms (stay away from the middle) –however we have learned Stochastic is our friend yes? J. By that I simply mean that by looking at a WEEKLY chart we can “see” when an indicator get to a certain low/high point that it’s a pivot point historically, we watch all of our indicators and chart formations and buy in accordingly. Because we know we are at an extreme top/bottom if the stock suddenly takes off against us (like the QQQQ’s did when we bought our first PUT at $43) we know this is a “gift” because the indicators were already “hot.”

Ok, so we now know how to find the trend by looking at the weekly chart (gallery page at stockcharts.com) and how to find a pivot point so now we know how to find the “safest” plays IMO.

Now… --What’s the SMARTEST way to “play the plays?”

IMO, “Covered CALLS” along with our Option plays, why?

A 3% monthly return is over 40% annually with compounding.
(5% and we are around 90%) –for basically free!
This on top of our gains off the options.

Using charting skills I think we can hammer these IMO [$$$]


Quick facts:
-Each option contract covers 100 shares of stock, 1000 shares = 10 contracts.
-The price paid for the option is the Premium
-According to CBOE only 1 in 10 Options are exercised (you have 90% in your favor!)
-Calculate the rate of decay of a LEAP by taking the time premium of option price and dividing it by the number of months in the LEAP.
-DIA is made up of 30 very large/established companies, each paying a dividend.
-QQQQ is made up of the largest 100 non-financial companies on the NASDAQ.
-The “return on investment” when buying a 6-9 month option is more then DOUBLE the return on investment that would result if the longest term LEAP were purchased.
-Shorter-term options also are more actively traded and have smaller differences between the bid and asked price.
-"Gaps" close. Play Gaps with a 3 month option!

[As I write this the huge gap that formed overnight is about half closed already, -easy money IMO.]

Now some trading “set-ups.”

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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OK - now that brings up more questions ;-)

1) Don't you also like SPY? (Seems I remember that one being in an early list)

2) Please expound on the gaps part, and how you would play that with a 3 month option...

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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lookin2trade
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Chart walker, you must have alot of time on your hands to learn all this stuff. Do you stay at home and trade? Is that your job? I can set my own hours with my job, but it is still hard to fit all this "learning" in. Does one need to be able to have alot of time for this for it to really pay off? If I can ask, have you been very profitable with options?
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milliam
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Chart, the "only 1 in 10 options are exercised" bothers me a bit. I think the website you posted glossed over it, but didn't really explain it much. I totally agree that probably only 1 in 10 are exercised, but this doesn't mean that 9 out of 10 call sellers have their options expire worthless. I imagine a good bit of them buy their sold calls back either at a profit or a loss.

I'm sure you're already aware of this, but I felt like it needed more discussion.

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Chart walker
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-lookin2...

I've stated in this thread that my trades here are virtual trades. I am in the middle of some very hard and pressing times, but they won't last forever. So, we are forming the "master plan" now, -together, right here.

Buying a winning CALL or PUT I can do

We are in the "tweaking stage." IMO

I'm a chart and indicator freak, they seem to "talk" to me [Smile] This doesn't take alot of time, -it "IS" my time... Almost always studying, backtesting and reading.

I believe stocks are my "gift." So now I'm simply trying to figure out a way to become wealthy in a trillion dollar market and have nothing to lose by telling everyone just how I'm going to do it by proving it right here, day to day.

No BS. -period.

This is our hard earned money on the line.

Talk to you all tomorrow Board! [Smile]

Chart ~

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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Chart walker
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quote:
Originally posted by milliam:
Chart, the "only 1 in 10 options are exercised" bothers me a bit. I think the website you posted glossed over it, but didn't really explain it much. I totally agree that probably only 1 in 10 are exercised, but this doesn't mean that 9 out of 10 call sellers have their options expire worthless. I imagine a good bit of them buy their sold calls back either at a profit or a loss.

I'm sure you're already aware of this, but I felt like it needed more discussion.

According to CBOE,
"10% of options are exercised, 30% of options expire worthless, and 60% are traded out," -which means that holders sold their options and writters bought back their options, in order to close the positions.

But cut it how you will, options that traded out to close positions are not exercised, so only 1 of 10 options written gets exercised.

That's the whole picture ~
Hope it helps!

Gotta jam!! [Big Grin]

Chart ~

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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With the news about Qwest being in the game for the national contract, and all of the other talk about it, I just bought some October calls - VERY cheap right now!

.15 for a 12.50 call and .55 for a 10.00 call

[Big Grin]

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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I will talk and use the “cubes” (QQQQ) and the DIA for examples. I like these two because they are extremely liquid, very small spread between bid and ask and there are far more strike prices, not $5 apart like some. The QQQQ and DIA options receive preferential tax treatment too. 60% of your gains are considered to be long term even if held for just a single day, -taxed at 15%. File with form 1256, -QQQQ and DIA options only, not the stock… Now onward!! [Smile]

I’ll start with the easiest, and work to very complicated, long plays that traders are using

Strategy # 1
[*Trading rules may vary when trading in regular stocks]

GAP Strategy
Simple, wait for a gap up or down in Pre-market and bet that the gap will close. Buying a 2-3 month out option is very safe, however higher returns may come from a shorter-term option. Remember, this play should only last one day then be sold. It’s really that simple. Look back at the history of the cubes and how the gap closes usually that same day, otherwise closes soon after. I think you need to keep this strategy in mind no matter what “play” you are doing because this is easy money, don’t be greedy, it doesn’t have to close 100% in order for you to sell… PAPER trade the GAP strategy using 1, 2 and 3-month options and see which one returns more, then post your findings here for all of us please…

Strategy # 2

Buy “extreme” PUTS or CALLS. Charts Strategy!! [Smile]
We have talked about this in detail here, it’s nothing more then buying options when there is a negative or positive crossover on a weekly charts indicator that has reached a certain low or high on it’s indicator where previously there were pivot points. Not all crosses will be “extreme” wait till the indicator gets low or high enough. –Again a look at the gallery page at stockcharts.com at the QQQQ’s will show you what I mean. If it head fakes more up or down concider it a gift, cause you're back is against the wall when playing extremes. Super safe!

Strategy # 3

“The Big Easy”
[For use when the market is turning BULLISH]

1)Purchase “at-the-money” call options, choosing the options which expire 6 – 9 months out.
2)Sell the next month “at-the-money” call option. For every 10 long-term calls you own, sell 7 short–term options if the strike is slightly in-the-money, or sell 8 short-term options if the strike is out-of-the-money.
3)Do nothing else till expiration.
4)At expiration, buy back any in-the-money expiring calls and let out-of-the-money calls expire worthless. If the stock is within .25 of the strike price of an expiring option, place a “buy at the market close to close” order to buy back the calls.
5)At expiration, if the stock is within 8% of the strike price of your long-term calls, go to #2 above. Take any cash you generate from these new sales, and put on new positions as if you were starting at # 1.
6)At expiration, if the stock price is more then 8% above of below the strike price of the long-term calls you bought, close them out (sell them) and start at #1 above.

NOTE: To be used in a BULL market’s beginning, not end! If the market falls by 5% or more there will be loss, a 5% loss happens about twice a year FYI.
This strategy involves using only a couple of trades at or near expiration day each month. No need to worry about Delta values or the other GREEKS. This is a good way to get your feet wet, -without taking a bath J




Strategy # 4

“Going to the MOON!”
To be used when you believe a single stock is going to the moon sometime soon in the next 2 years. If you are right, you will earn 400% (or so) more then buying the stock alone. This is RISKY and a lotto ticket but WOW if it pays off! Use a small portion of your portfolio for these IMO.

In all the other strategies we don’t want the stock going way up or down and make our money if the market is flat and adjust our positions as the market cycles, but here we must have a price movement UPWARD.

If you think you can pick a stock that will double in two years there is a BIG payoff.

As a bonus if your stock pick doesn’t “fly” we’ll set it up to get your money back and you don’t lose anything. If the stock falls quickly you will loose money, but if it goes down slowly, or just a little you should be able to get all of your money back…

1)Buy the longest Term LEAP possible at the strike price nearest the current stock price.
2)Calculate the monthly decay the LEAP will experience over the time period if the stock stays the same price.
3)Each month, sell only enough out-of-the-money calls to bring in sufficient premium to cover the monthly decay.

Remember, with this strategy we are not trying to make money from selling short-term calls. We are betting on the stock going up strongly. We are selling only the minimum out-of-the-money calls to get our investment back in case we’re wrong about the stock.

Golden rule: When selling out-of-the-money calls, if the premium for a 2-month out call is more then twice as great as the premium for the one month out call, sell the 2-month out call. [This gains you more money per month than 1-month call, and you get your money now so it can be put to use on some other investment].

...more coming soon [Smile]

-GNight Board!

Chart ~

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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quote:
Originally posted by SherriT:
With the news about Qwest being in the game for the national contract, and all of the other talk about it, I just bought some October calls - VERY cheap right now!

.15 for a 12.50 call and .55 for a 10.00 call

[Big Grin]

BTW, the price TODAY is around $9.00 and has been going up anyway....(see thread on Hot Stocks about the underlying entity)

--------------------
Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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JLo
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Folks,

kindly please take a look at my new thread "Section 1256 Contracts and Straddles".

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Chart walker
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That support of $42.93 is calling!! [Big Grin] [Big Grin] [Big Grin]

-Have a great weekend Board!

Chart ~

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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It's calling, but the QQQQs are not answering today...

--------------------
Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p03862148664

I think the "fat lady" is clearing her throat Sherrit! [Big Grin]

Everything is looking weak, CMoney Flow negative and growing [Smile] Just don't see this as a bottom yet...

I want to leave you all with this to ponder...

I'm looking high and low for a "perfect" Option system, one that is super safe, super high yielding and doesn't take long... -aren't we all! [Big Grin]

But I think the best "Strategy" I have seen yet is the very one we are trading here at Allstocks! That is... buying the "extreme" level pivot points with a straight CALL or PUT 6-9 months out.

Proof is in the pudding...
Not long after the cubes here topped out and started running hot in the indicators, those PUT pick's I posted took off. One knocking on a 200% profit!!

And soon we'll be able to bounce along the bottom and catch Stochastic flips (lows) with CALLS as we wait for a run back to the top!! Sell when they reach oversold wait for them to bottom and repeat. One of those times the "big" correct to the top will come and we'll have bought in at the bottom!

I'm playing with the idea of writing "Naked Puts" when the Bull come out again. I've read that Naked Puts are very profitable (by FAR![according to that site "Callwritters"]) and that you don't need a high trading level to sell them.

So knowing what we know about charting and bagging these tops and bottoms how about writing naked PUTS when the BULLS start running?... Even naked CALLS when the BEARS are out...


Does anyone know of a reason why we couldn't?..

Later Board!

Chart ~

--------------------
The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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The naked stuff is risky, nasty, and unless you are loaded, you won't be able to do it. While I think it is a great thing to explore, I personally like the idea of honing what we are already working on, and adding the flips to it...once we get that perfected, then trying adding something to it.

Main reason I say that, other than available cash flow, is that most of us here are new to options, and if we start tackling too much, we will miss the mechanics behind it - strictly MHO.

I am waiting impatiently for the fat lady to start singing - LOL, but I can say this, buying a few of these, although some of mine were high at the time, has been a great lesson just to hold and watch throughout the trading day. I need to start paying attention to the DIA and SPY options too....they do move MUCH more than the regular stocks, and I would ideally like to be able to swing some of these index options....too much money to be made here!

Have a great weekend all! (and thanks Chart [Wink] )!

--------------------
Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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new2stocks
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EDIT~oops wrong board sorry
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SherriT
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Side note - I didn't explain my point about the "risky, nasty, and unless you are loaded part"....Chart, I know you and I have discussed this before, but the rest of the board may not be familiar. You can trade options based on your trading level, and to trade some of the naked stuff, you have to be level 5. Unfortunately, some places want as much as 100K in equity to do that, not to mention your income and trading experience plays a part in what they will approve you for...

That is the main reason I suggested sticking with the straight calls and puts, and playing the flip/swing on it....

--------------------
Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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JLo
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20K in cash equivalent from Fidelity and level 4. You have got to be watching out and know when to get out in front of a moving train.
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SherriT
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There are some brokers that have lower requirements, like JLo said, but to trade the index options, it is generally higher than that...

--------------------
Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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pagolf22
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hello board:

thanks to everyone for the Q&A, what a huge amount of info to help understand the extreme tops/bottoms.

I am watching the charts of : QQQQ,AMD,HSY,PEET.

GLTA

thanks

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SherriT
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Welcome aboard, pagolf22! I have learned a lot from this board, and I hope you will have as good an experience.

I have contracts currently in QQQQ and AMD, but have not been paying attention to HSY or PEET. I'm curious as to why they are on your watch list?

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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-gap closed... FYI [Smile]

--------------------
The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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milliam
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Wow, that was quick! I was expecting an up day for the Q's, but that didn't last long.

So from the chart, how are we looking? The full stock looks like its moved up a bit, but I expect it to return to its down trend now that the market has moved back down. Anything else of note?

I'm debating on doubling down on my put.

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SherriT
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I already did on the last upswing - just waiting for a good time to sell - and sooner would be better than later [Wink]

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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Interesting...

we are under the big resist of $43.54 and have a support at $42.93 next....

We have our 50DMA holding it down, but a slightly positive CMoney Flow, so it should retest the $43.54 level IMO.

If we close under $43.54 again that would be a very good sign for us PUTS [Smile]

--------------------
The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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LOL - it retested right about the time I read this - and appears to be headed back down. Now for that close underneath it [Wink]

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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4 times on the 5 min chart it slammed right into it, so now it looks like "earthworm city!" LOL [Big Grin]

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

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SherriT
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YAHOO! [Big Grin]

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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SherriT
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Just bounced again...down, that is...."set a spell, take your shoes off" LOL

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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SherriT
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Broke the resistance this time....barely, but broken nonetheless.

Question is: can we close below again? I sure hope so!

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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SherriT
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Answer to the above question is no. We closed above it - just barely, but above it.

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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Chart walker
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98556303191

50DMA to the rescue!
Didn't get by that one whew ~ [Smile]

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The "BIG PICTURE" http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

Posts: 5449 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
SherriT
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YUCK - we did this morning - and back we cycle...

[Frown]

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

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SherriT
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I feel so alone in my suffering today [Frown]

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Study before you buy, Sell before you think about it....

Posts: 3903 | From: Gulf Coast | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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