I don't believe people know that for basically the same amount of money they are useing on penny's they could be buying Options on the "Big Boy" stocks and making huge profits with only a FRACTION of the time and effort. As I progress in my trading I'm finding I don't like having to watch a computer screen all day with my finger on the sell button, even worse I hate scams and BS that Penny's are dipped in...
With that said, I like buying "extreme" tops or bottoms with Options. Example, on a weekly chart look for turn points, buy a CALL or PUT 6 months just out of the money. Sell with one month to go. Those are the "rules." Simple ~
Today's buy, contracts are $3.00 so $3 x 10 = $300 I bought 10 so it was $3000. [contracts are sold in a group of 10]
Today's buy: (1-24-07) .SFBRL SPY JUN 142 Put -10 for $3.00 (my cost $3,000.00) 2.89 ($2,890.00) gain of $110.00
One's I am in: .SFBRI SPY JUN 139 Put $143.43 -10 $2.90 (my cost $2,900.00) 2.15 ($2,150.00) gain of $750.00
.QQQOO QQQQ MAR 2007 41 Put $44.30 -10 $0.60 (my cost $600.00) 0.2 ($200.00) gain of $400.00
.DAWOQ DIA MAR 2007 121 Put $125.73 -1 $2.65 (my cost $265.00) 0.6 ($60.00) Gain of $205.00
Chart ~
Posted by Repoman75 on :
I know all about options except how to make money on them... I hear they are profitably, although when I was 16, I lost $5K on Heating Oil futures...
But I'd be interested in getting back in the game (can't hold me down for long!)
Posted by Chart walker on :
I'm about sick of having to baby sit Pennystocks.
The big main players like QQQQ, DIA or SPY are about all you need. That and the Gallery page at stockchart.com. You can watch MSFT, or GOOG with NO GAMES and BS and make great profits, safer IMO.
If the Naz is in a weekly uptrend go with CALLS, down trend showing in the weekly go with PUTS.
With "simple" charting skills and buying at extreme tops or bottoms (weekly charts) it's hard to lose when buying a 6 month contract and selling with 1 month to go.
I go with straight CALLS or PUTS, nothing fancy, no need if you know where the market is headed IMO. That's why I thought I would start documenting what I'm doing.
This is far more predictable and less time consuming then penny's ~
I may roll out of Penny's all together in 2007, takes to much time.
Posted by new2stocks on :
chart~ are you paper trading these options?
Posted by Chart walker on :
Yes, opened a virtual account along side of my actual account, and can show everyone who PM's me how to do that FOR FREE at a top trading platform. The account will be "real" and can be funded at any time... Mine is, and there will be more moved there soon Majority of my accounts are in stocks yet, but...
Like I said, I'm thinking of rolling out of penny's in 2007 because these major stocks on a weekly chart with indicators are like shooting fish in a barrel and I intend to prove it right here. I've been doing this for awhile, backtesting, perfecting ~
So far I have a 100% picking system going and will talk about all that in detail as questions and pic's come up.
Charts and indicators with Large Cap stocks are a dream come true, read like a book IMO ~
I even have a way to set up and trade your account to "go for broke" the smart way, and race to retirement. -Divide your account into 5 "blocks" in otherwords trade 20% on everytrade, 100% gains are normal when buying in on "extreme" tops or bottoms...
"IF" one would lose (hasn't yet) 25% is taken from the other 4 to build up the 5th.
Here is the power of trading Options this way, besides being protected... 5 Blocks of $1000 (you can always work up to that amount) gaining an average of 100% after just 8 trades each and you'll have $256,000.00 in each, or $1,280,000.00.
After just 8 trades each, -and with options 100% gains are not hard to get. Notice my .SFBRI SPY JUN 139 Put, the stock price is $143.43 yet my gain is $750.00, -and I'm still $4.00 from where I "should" first be making money at $139.00...
There's "The Plan"
-watch me go! Posted by new2stocks on :
GLTY Chart!
Posted by Chart walker on :
EOD Totals:
.DAWOQ DIA MAR 2007 121 Put $126.05 -1 $2.65 ($265.00) 0.5 ($50.00) Gain of $215.00
.QQQOO QQQQ MAR 2007 41 Put $44.26 -10 $0.60 ($600.00) 0.22 ($220.00) Gain of $380.00
.SFBRI SPY JUN 139 Put $143.90 -10 $2.90 ($2,900.00) 1.95 ($1,950.00) Gain of $950.00
.SFBRL SPY JUN 142 Put -10 $3.00 ($3,000.00) 2.75 ($2,750.00) Gain of $250.00
Posted by new2stocks on :
Can you cash out at any time or do you have to wait?
Posted by Chart walker on :
Work's just like stocks New2 ~
Posted by new2stocks on :
Interesting, I tried looking into options on my own, but I wasn't understanding it. LOL
Posted by Repoman75 on :
Well I'm approved to do everything including selling naked calls... so keep me in the loop.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by Repoman75: Well I'm approved to do everything including selling naked calls... so keep me in the loop.
No kidding Repo....
Got a buddy that want's to just write the contracts, he said (not so surprisingly to me) that 80% of people who buy Options LOSE their money. -I bet it's HIGHER in Penny's!
I told him that that sounded like an opportunity to make ALOT of Money! Think about it....
If you know how to snag extreme tops or bottoms [on a WEEKLY chart look at either Stochastic, MACD, RSI and CMoneyFlow and SEE how LOW or HIGH the positive/negative crosses are that produce an "extreme." In other words no buying in the middle.] then you can write CALLS at tops cause you know darn well whatever you sell you'll get to KEEP cause it's about to tank, or likewise on a extreme bottom sell all the PUTS you can cause it's about to cycle up, the price won't go that low so they expire worthless... again...
"You keep the cash!"
This way your percentage of "keepers" goes WAY up when writing them! You aren't playing around in the middle of the stock, but at an "extreme." -get it?
I went into this in a little detail because CLEARLY someone who knows how to do this Repo could CLEAN HOUSE.....
-no if's, and's, or buts! ~
hmmmmmm.... -now you got me thinking....
How about I tell you what's going where and you write'em?
Wonder how much a couple of us "hicks" could make in 6 mos.?? LMAO ~
I still like trading the contracts, the knowledge of which ones are about to turn could be used to write contracts out PAST extremes, otherwise this knowledge will go wasted, I have nothing to loose here, think about it ~
Chart
Posted by NYSE Trader on :
Question if the stock ends up trending against your predictions you can let it expire worthless and just pay the premium is that right?
Posted by NYSE Trader on :
By the way I am glad your here to help with options...ive started reading about them this past 2 months very interested.
Posted by Repoman75 on :
quote:Originally posted by NYSE Trader: Question if the stock ends up trending against your predictions you can let it expire worthless and just pay the premium is that right?
Yes, but you're better to sell before they expire hopefully for some value.
Chart - I've had an idea about big boards, and that is REVERSE STRADDLES. Think about it. Find a big board that barely moves (up or down), and then sell naked puts and calls WAY out of the money.. you'd have to sell a lot and take a large risk, but it could be very profitable.
Ok, now I'm interested. Let's get some stocks on here and their options and let's try some paper trades.
Posted by milliam on :
quote:Originally posted by NYSE Trader: Question if the stock ends up trending against your predictions you can let it expire worthless and just pay the premium is that right?
If it trends against you, your best to sell at a stop. Otherwise, they expire worthless (been there done that). You don't pay anything at that point...all of the cost is upfront.
I'm grabbing a seat here at the lounge. I'm ready to get back into options. Me and some buddies have been looking at a pay service for info, but I think we might go it on our own (with Chart's help) instead.
Posted by milliam on :
Repo...you're talking some serious risky stuff there. There are ways to take some risk out, but they limit your profits. I like to stick with the simple buying of calls or puts. The saddles, strangles, and such could be useful in some instances though.
Posted by milliam on :
Chart, which firm do you have your virtual account with? Also, I seem to remember some site where they had backtracking on strategies...can you point me to one that has that?
On a weekly chart the "cubes" produced 2 BUY points, MACD/PPO indicator hit a low of -2 and was matched with Stochastic going below it's 20% line, Aroon went negative as well, so this was an "extreme" bottom.
Just coming off of a extreme top it looks like too, Stochastic going below it's 80% line, MACD/PPO is high and crossing negative, momentum bars shrinking to the negative also.
So, 2 times we would've bought into "the cubes" one CALL and one PUT.
Looks like the cubes will be taking a dump, the false sense some "experts" are trying to push that the BULL market will keep going I don't buy...
Also, something to keep in mind, Clinton used the FED, if interest rates don't raise, the market stays fine... -Remember that.
Again, that is why I look for the extreme lows or highs, safer.
I still like a straight CALL or PUT Option. Yes you can buy all different kinds of spreads, neutral or bullish/bearish but your profits are effected. For instance you could be Delta Neutral on a stock and win no matter what happens.
In otherwords, buy a Call and a PUT, you win if it goes up or down, but one will lose some before you can sell. Again, when playing extremes you get around that.
my 2 cents ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Chart, which firm do you have your virtual account with? Also, I seem to remember some site where they had backtracking on strategies...can you point me to one that has that?
Thanks!
I love Optionsxpress . com Backtesting can be done by simply looking back at a chart...
Otherwise Tradestation . com has what you are talking about. Top notch site and $5000 min to open an account.
Click online Tutorials. (love Radar screen!)
Posted by Mantux on :
Chart thanks for all the info. This is a great thread. I have a few questions about using charts. Do you use a sma or ema? On the RSI and CMoneyFlow what periods do you use? Also, for the MACD any suggestions on the fast, slow and smoothing settings? Thanks
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by Mantux: Chart thanks for all the info. This is a great thread. I have a few questions about using charts. Do you use a sma or ema? On the RSI and CMoneyFlow what periods do you use? Also, for the MACD any suggestions on the fast, slow and smoothing settings? Thanks
Moving averages I don't use much, not "quick" enough, or if you quicken them up you loose "where" you are in the "flow..." like free falling in space, but I know of some who love them and seem to do well... More then one way to skin a cat ~
MACD takes care of that for me, not only does it cross positive or negative but also WHERE it crosses (below/above centerline) so I know where it's at in it's trend.
RSI and Money Flow I use on Weekly, daily and even on a daily intraday charts. Keep in mind that weekly charts AVERAGE in their data at the EOW.
I like useing default settings on MACD, and having a "quick" setting to below it, try 4,8,8
That setting does wonders on a weekly chart as well --gets you in and out BEFORE the crowd ~
On intraday charts, use a default setting MACD to see the MAJOR trend of the day, and the "quick" MACD setting (4,8,8) MACD for exact buy in and out points. Those two with a Stochastic indicator and you should be able to rule flips intraday ~
Those are a powerful 3 some!
Hope that helps Posted by Mantux on :
Thanks Chart, that helps a lot.
Posted by Chart walker on :
"The cube's" are at the bottom of the Stochastic indicator so after what should be a run in the next couple of days I'll be looking to snag a June PUT at a cheaper price because of the run~
-my .02 cents ~
Later Board! Chart ~
Posted by littleman on :
chart walker, i own halliburton as a value play. should i have bought a just out of the money call instead. thanks
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by littleman: chart walker, i own halliburton as a value play. should i have bought a just out of the money call instead. thanks
"Halliburton"....????? Not familier with that one. What's the symbol so I can look it up?
Posted by Chart walker on :
"The cube's" are at the bottom of the Stochastic indicator so after what should be a run in the next couple of days I'll be looking to snag a June PUT at a cheaper price because of the run~
-my .02 cents ~
Later Board! Chart ~
BUMP, -everything going according to plan Posted by littleman on :
chart, it's HAL
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by littleman: chart walker, i own halliburton as a value play. should i have bought a just out of the money call instead. thanks
Only you can answer your question, it's a matter of probability. As you walk away from the price the odds start to go against you, but that is why I play "extreme" tops and bottoms and not the middle's.
I, myself, don't mind going slightly out of the money for a little discount on the price when I see a turning point in a WEEKLY chart.
How to do that. MARK indicator HIGH and LOWS, to find your target buy in and out points. For instance look at a gallery page of HAL...
If you are doing short plays notice that when the PPO indicator on the DAILY chart hits certain highs or lows with that indicator that they are excellent times to buy in. Like the start of Oct. when it was -4, and right around January 16th it was -3.
For longer plays use a Weekly chart, but ALWAYS LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART TO FIND THE MAIN TREND, NEVER GO AGAINST THE TREND.
Pull up a 1 or 2 year daily chart and backtest your thinking now and see how many times when this indicator was that low (-3 or below) was it a good time to buy in? Chances are it will be. So this stock has just "taught YOU" how to play it when buying a CALL.
The same goes for PUTS. Mark which HIGH point on a indicator is "extreme" and then wait for it ~
Pick several stocks and let "the stock" tell YOU WHAT and WHEN to buy it...
Some indicators I use for finding extreme turn points are: Full Stochastic MACD RSI PPO
Again, everything you need to know about the stock will come to light in BACKTESTING these indicators and seeing which one/s give the best "read."
I know it may sound like alot, but once you walk through this system you'll use it everytime because just like a book you'll KNOW where you are, beginning, middle or end...
HAL looks like a nice stock! Nice "predictable" swings up and down, this is also what you want to look for, NOT one that isn't predictable....
Still waiting for the Stochastic indicator to run it's course... When it gets to the top of it's indiactor and starts to bend down again we'll place our trade!!!
Looks like by the EOW IMO ~
Chart ~
Posted by Repoman75 on :
Still radaring this whole idea... when I get some funds, I'm jumping in.
Posted by Chart walker on :
"The cube's" are at the bottom of the Stochastic indicator so after what should be a run in the next couple of days I'll be looking to snag a June PUT at a cheaper price because of the run~
OK Chart, we are getting close to EOW - have you placed your trade yet?
I'm still trying to muddle through my options book, but I am definately getting more interested.
I know we slightly covered this above, but you pay the premium, and you can choose to let the option expire worthless, or you can exercise it and/or sell/cover the stock...does the latter usually save you money over just letting it expire?
Also, I'm still learning the stochastic...you said the QQQQs are at the bottom of the stochastic...it looks to me like the Full Stochastic is at the top of its range - why do you call that a bottom? (sorry if that was a dumb question)
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: OK Chart, we are getting close to EOW - have you placed your trade yet?
I'm still trying to muddle through my options book, but I am definately getting more interested.
I know we slightly covered this above, but you pay the premium, and you can choose to let the option expire worthless, or you can exercise it and/or sell/cover the stock...does the latter usually save you money over just letting it expire?
Also, I'm still learning the stochastic...you said the QQQQs are at the bottom of the stochastic...it looks to me like the Full Stochastic is at the top of its range - why do you call that a bottom? (sorry if that was a dumb question)
"WAS" at the bottom of the Stochastic indicator
Now first would be a good time to go short IMO... After the drop, the PPS may go up some, wait, then place your paper trades today.
And options are just like stocks, you can sell at anytime... GL Board! Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
.QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put
10 bought at $1.22 (about $1235.00 w/ commissions my cost)
NOTE: 1 contract of 10 would have cost you around $123.50 (I bought 10 of them) FYI.
Posted by SherriT on :
OK - I'm still foggy on the bottom/top part, but we'll skip that for now...
I went to both of my online brokerages, and see that I can place an order for options, but don't see where I would get the quotes to do so. Maybe this was on the 888options site...didn't see anything specific though?
Posted by Chart walker on :
Great question ~
Just look for a tab that says "Find Chain" -or something to that effect.
Then when you enter in a symbol like QQQQ it will pull up the latest option chain. Left side will be CALLS right side PUTS. The shaded part will be in or out of the money for CALLS and PUTS.
There should also be links to further out option chains, look for months like JUNE, AUG and so on.
Or even LEAPS, LEAPS are LONG term options contracts that may be years out ~
Looks like the cubes are falling like a hot rock! Love them indicators!! lol ~
Down over .20 as I'm writing this Posted by SherriT on :
Talk about a whole new world of stuff to learn!
Just looking at the "Find Chain" page I was dumbfounded (but I will get there). Thanks Chart!
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: .QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put
10 bought at $1.22 (about $1235.00 w/ commissions my cost)
NOTE: 1 contract of 10 would have cost you around $123.50 (I bought 10 of them) FYI.
Next question...why the $43 strike price? Is that what you are expecting it to do by June, or is that the price at which you are sure you will be well in the money?
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT:
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: .QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put
10 bought at $1.22 (about $1235.00 w/ commissions my cost)
NOTE: 1 contract of 10 would have cost you around $123.50 (I bought 10 of them) FYI.
Next question...why the $43 strike price? Is that what you are expecting it to do by June, or is that the price at which you are sure you will be well in the money?
GREAT question!!
This is where the "Art of the deal" comes into play...
You can buy further out options, but it will cost you more because over time the market does average up, this is safer, but you won't make as much because you had to pay more, or,... you can play the more risky cheaper options that are due in a couple of weeks.
You can buy way "in the money, -but you will pay more, you can buy CHEAP way out of the money, -but is RISKY!
I've found through back testing that a 4-6 month out contract at an "extreme" or weekly turn point yields the safest, quickest return. Otherwise you will have about an 70-80% win ratio, which in getting 100% on your trades isn't bad, but I don't like to lose at all... ZERO, ZIP
So that's why I trade the way I do.
But, if useing a daily chart and flipping contracts, what I would do is find what indicators read the stock well (followed it) and then see how low or high this indicator had to go to form a daily "extreme" point.
Example, you will see how the MACD sometimes goes really low, or really high, line that up with a Stochastic indicator that LOW or HIGH "ALSO" and you should nail every trade in the short term.
That's basically what I do but in the lorger term, in the weekly charts...
Simple stuff really...
But printing out and READING how they back test is the whole game. Not EVERY MACD cross will be a winner, so FIND OUT WHY! Notice in the back testing how the crosses that are the LOWEST BELOW the centerline are the best ones that turn around and shoot upward.
Everything you need to know "IS IN the charts and indicators.
It's just a matter of understanding what they are telling you... Providing you are useing "good" indicators. A "good" indicator is simply one that tells you what you need it to tell you.
Like is money flowing in or out? -CMF
Over bought or over sold? -Stochastic
Are people Accumulating or dumping? -Accum/Distr.
They are all telling you something...
Play a game, print out randon charts (NOT pennys,cause they can be jerky) like the QQQQ in different time frames, pick out your favorite indicators and print out 10 of them. Try this with DAILY and WEEKLY charts.
Sit with a piece of paper covering 7/8 of the chart, pull the paper to the right and paper trade as you go. Write right on the chart buy in's and out's..
Once you feel comfortable "reading" charts you'll be able to burn right along and pop in and out like a pro! You'll see how the middle area is a gray area and how "extremes" are VERY predictable.
Sound's hard, but it's so easy ~
Just a matter of "seeing it" for the first time!
I do that game above all the time! Then guess on real stocks what's going to happen, you do this and you'll be hitting trades out of the park in no time.
"Who takes the time to do this?" -no one...
Yet once you do it you never have to do it again.... Closest thing to "easy money" I've ever come across!
Later Board! Gotta check on my BIGN stock! [yes that was a shameful plug! lol ~]
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: Great question ~
Just look for a tab that says "Find Chain" -or something to that effect.
Then when you enter in a symbol like QQQQ it will pull up the latest option chain. Left side will be CALLS right side PUTS. The shaded part will be in or out of the money for CALLS and PUTS.
There should also be links to further out option chains, look for months like JUNE, AUG and so on.
Or even LEAPS, LEAPS are LONG term options contracts that may be years out ~
Looks like the cubes are falling like a hot rock! Love them indicators!! lol ~
Down over .20 as I'm writing this
OK, NOW I have questions about this chart...
The Full Stochastic appears to be headed downward for sure, but the StochRSI is very low and the PPO is near 0, also low. Wouldn't you be expecting the price to go UP and not DOWN?
Accumulation is going down, Stochastic is negative and the Money is a big negative...
Nope, this one wasn't going to run with all that going on behind the scences IMO ~
The "cubes" are bouncing between 43.50 and 44.50 the Bulls want it to run, the Bears want it to tank, if interest rates go up buy as many puts as you can at, or near the money IMO...
We broke through a huge 44.31 support, next in line is: 43.51 42.86 41.77 40.05 38.41
Look back at the past to see what's ahead. The cubes are "jerky" a possible up day tomorrow might happen, but the major trend is down, indicators are down and the Jan - Feb run that occurs yearly seems to be fizzling out ~
Accumulation is going down, Stochastic is negative and the Money is a big negative...
Nope, this one wasn't going to run with all that going on behind the scences IMO ~
The "cubes" are bouncing between 43.50 and 44.50 the Bulls want it to run, the Bears want it to tank, if interest rates go up buy as many puts as you can at, or near the money IMO...
We broke through a huge 44.31 support, next in line is: 43.51 42.86 41.77 40.05 38.41
Look back at the past to see what's ahead. The cubes are "jerky" a possible up day tomorrow might happen, but the major trend is down, indicators are down and the Jan - Feb run that occurs yearly seems to be fizzling out ~
Look at the almost exact run up and chart pattern from last year at this time.
Even the year before, a run up at the EOY and a sell off.
So in looking at what happened last year and buying that JUNE Put, we have untill JUNE for the price to fall below our $43 June PUT.
We are at an "extreme" high, shouldn't be a problem!
Later Board! Chart ~
Very cool, Chart! The prices of those June PUTs fall when it jogs up too, so tomorrow might be a nice day to buy one Save a few pennies anyway...
Posted by Chart walker on :
Right!
Or buy a higher PUT for the same price Posted by SherriT on :
OK, I would assume a "higher" PUT would be a higher strike price, like 44, which would put you closer to already in the money (so to speak), right?
Now - help me understand some math on the gain...using the example you posted a couple of days ago....
.QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put... bought at $1.22
NOTE: 1 contract of 10 would have cost you around $123.50
Let's say I bought 1 contract of 10, and in May, the price of QQQQ is at 38 even (for simplicity). Do I sell the option and make the difference between the cost I paid for the contract and the price I am able to get for the contract, or do something else and earn the difference between the 43 strike price and 38 strike price per share? (The way you do it anyway....)
Posted by milliam on :
I'm not Chart, but I'll try to help out.
Each contract is for 100 "option shares". So if the option is listed for $1, it will cost you $100 for a contract. I'm not sure if you got this or not since you were talking about 1 contract of 10...Chart bought 10 contracts with each being $123.50.
Basically, yes...you sell the contract and make the difference between what you sell for and what you bought for (minus commission of course)..just like a stock trade. You can hold the option and let it exercise if its in the money. You'll need the funds in your account though to buy the underlying stock (for a call option). I think most all options are sold though and not many are exercised.
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: I'm not Chart, but I'll try to help out.
Each contract is for 100 "option shares". So if the option is listed for $1, it will cost you $100 for a contract. I'm not sure if you got this or not since you were talking about 1 contract of 10...Chart bought 10 contracts with each being $123.50.
Basically, yes...you sell the contract and make the difference between what you sell for and what you bought for (minus commission of course)..just like a stock trade. You can hold the option and let it exercise if its in the money. You'll need the funds in your account though to buy the underlying stock (for a call option). I think most all options are sold though and not many are exercised.
I thought each contract was for 10 shares, and Chart bought 10 contracts, which would total 100 shares (???)
Posted by Chart walker on :
The amount of shares each contract holds I believe is 100 shares, so it would be 1000 shares if 10 contracts were bought...
That is why they are so profitable, 1000 shares at $40 would take you 40,000.00 to buy, but we can control $40,000.00 worth of stock for the strike price x10 or a fraction of that cost.
I'll look around tomorrow for a exact breakdown and how to word all of this with clearity...
Cause in reading this back it sounds confusing lol ~
Posted by SherriT on :
OK I am certainly in the confrused department. The other piece I am trying to figure out (and this is mostly lack of experience, I believe). You mentioned that on these extreme highs and lows that 100% return is reasonable. Using that number just as a ball park, since we all know there are no guarantees, basically would you say the price of a June PUT in May that is well in the money as these might indicate would cost $3 per contract, hence you double your money?
Posted by Hitman on :
My Problem with options is picking the right one.... There are so many "Strikes" to pick on a stock I have lots of trouble..... Recently picked a CALL on walmart.... Within three days the stock went up .75 but my call option didnt move up enough to make any money... I still held out and by the sime walmart moved good... my CALL value was running out of time so... The It expired and I lost a little $$$$ ... There are so many strike prices to choose from ,,,, I get lost there.... If you choose the wrong one then later the volume on the Strike you choose may not let you sell?
Posted by milliam on :
I agree with you Hitman, its hard picking the right one. The farther you get out of the money and the closer you get to expiration, the more risky the play. If the stock moves the right way, the right amount, you can make some big cash fast, but if the stock doesn't move at all or moves the wrong way, you can lose it all fast.
The safe bet is to buy near the money and buy some time (6 months or so, or even a LEAP). You won't make the big money fast, but you can make some safe money. I would keep the short term, out of the money (by a good bit) trades to stocks that you feel are going to move fast (like a bio stock waiting on FDA approval or something of the sort).
LEAPs are a great way of getting started in options. Over my options trading time, I've never lost on a LEAP and have averaged 100% gains on each of them. It takes some time though, so its not for the trader who likes to trade a lot.
Posted by Chart walker on :
btw...
I still really like trading the cubes (QQQQ) because of the safety, there's no watching for a bad PR cause it represents the top 100 stocks of the NAZ, and if one company gets weak it is replaced with the stronger.
What more could you ask for?
Strike price: That's everything, if you want to be safer, by IN the money, the further OUT of the money you buy the cheaper, but the more risk but the better the reward...
One might even contemplate buying 3 options when at an extreme high or low, one IN the money, one AT the money and one more OUT of the money.
Of course most of your money would be placed on the "safer" IN the money and AT the money, cause the OUT of money one will be the riskier but will cost less but produce the most....
This is why Options are more like Chess and not Checkers
With charting the cubes it's easy to make a little extra cash on a longer term hold, I like the 6 month range myself, -because of backtesting.
Go to the gallery page of QQQQ and look at what happened at the end of each year and what happened to the price 6 months later...
-Remember we are buying 6 month Puts at or just out of the money.
We have our first red candle after a 3 day run, Acccumumalation has rounded off, HEIGHT of the volume bars has been going down since about the middle of Jan., Stochastic RSI has been "hot" and Full Stochastic indicator CLEARLY in oversold area of it's indicator and due for a correction, and this is being confirmed by the other indicators (never run off of just one indicator IMO).
--Remember the OVERALL game plan here.
We divide our account into 5 parts, the first part we bought a PUT with already, we will buy a second Put today at or just slightly out of the money, and in 5 months sell them...
This little run is a nice little "gift" and in looking back at the 3 year history of the Cubes we see that this fluctuation at the extreme tops and bottoms happen, another great reason to NOT put all your eggs in one basket
This Put now has the probability of becoming our biggest gainer in 5 months
The last two years the "cubes" (QQQQ) have ran and then tanked in 6 months later. Take a look at the WEEKLY chart to see.
10 bought at $1.30 for a total of $1,300.00
Posted by Chart walker on :
UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 for $1.30 = $1,300.00 now selling for 1.54 = $1,540.00 Gain of $240.00 for the day so far...
Posted by SherriT on :
Very nice Chart! I'm almost finished reading my first options book, and I have three more behind them...
Looks like a very smart way to play! Congrats!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Current status: .UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 at $1.30 = $1,300.00 now selling for $1.76 or $1,760.00
Profit of $460.00 in 2 days.
Posted by Chart walker on :
Ok, now I'm going to let you in a a HUGE trick!
Learned the darn thing by accident!
Everyone and their mother knows a PUT makes money when a stock is going DOWN, and a CALL when price goes up...
But here's how to make a freaking TON of money with next to NO money! CHEAP!!!!
When you want to buy a CALL buy a PUT INSTEAD and sell it short!!! Or when you would buy a PUT, buy a CALL instead and short it!! WAY OUT of the money, the further the better! -the further the CHEAPER!!
--If you "sell to open" you are shorting it... Meaning it will make money when it does the opposite of what it is... Hence, I shorted CALL will make money when it FALLS in price! -or a PUT will make money when the price goes up!
Why does this make TONS of money?.... SUPER CHEAP CONTRACTS!!!!!!
While the "crowd" is buying PUTS you are buying CALLS and "selling to open" because you can buy them for CENTS!!
Here are two examples that I'm in right now... The first is NEAR the money the second was the WAY out of the money as far as I could go!
.QQQFV QQQQ JUN 48 Call --current price $44.41 -10 for $0.59 (my cost $590.00) [10 contracts] they are selling for 0.5 or ($500.00) Profit of $90.00 Almost 20%!
NOW look at this ONE!!
.QQQFZ QQQQ JUN 52 Call -20 for $0.05 or (my cost $100.00) [That's 20 contracts!] 0.04 = ($80.00) Profit of $20.00 -or 20%!!
ONLY $100.00 bought "20" CALLS that "sold to open" -that's what the "-" in front of the contract number means... In otherwords, I could buy CALLS WAAAAAAY out of the money CHEAP!!! In fact buy the ones that are the FAREST out that you can!!! And SHORT them and make money!
What a trick huh?!!
Clearly you can see that even a little bit of money can make you a TON with this "trick!"
---now the catch... "The Rich" (the powers that be) KNOW this too...
They have set up "requirements" now which must be met in order to short a Option contract, otherwise EVERYONE would do it! 1) you must have at least $10,000.00 in your account, some are more then others... ($50,000.00 for an Index Option).
2) you must have Margin
3) level 5 trading account status...
For those who really what to get on the fast track, there is your blue print and directions! But for this thread I'll keep to the basic straight CALLS and PUTS from now on but wanted to make mention of this powerful Trick...
I'm only too Happy to share this TRICK/info with you all. Should someone pop a Million Buck$ with this please let me know of your Bessing!! Hard times have fallen on my family and the health thereof, so I am not able to do anything mysely yet... --but I feel this knowledge should be shared...
Actually, I may not get to use this info for a long time as I'm contemplating going to seminary school to become a Pastor
GL Board!! Chart ~
Posted by new2stocks on :
Really chart? Seminary school? LMAO!
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Really chart? Seminary school? LMAO!
"YES..."
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Really chart? Seminary school? LMAO!
"YES..."
GLTY!
Posted by Chart walker on :
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 Bought for $1,300.00 selling for 2.02 = $2,020.00
Profit of $720.00 -over 50%
It's Day 2... MONTHS to go Posted by new2stocks on :
Wow Chart, are you in that one?
Posted by milliam on :
Those puts are looking really good Chart...congratulations. I was really looking for the AROON to cross with a negative money flow, but I'm guessing that isn't going to show up until its too late.
Shorting options sounds really interesting, but I'm going to have to do a bit more thinking on that one. Let's see if I get this...you buy a contract of XYZ for .05 (-$50), then you sell that short at .05 (+$50) and then hope it expires worthless?
Sorry to hear of your family troubles. I hope better days find yall soon. Good luck on the seminary school as well, if you decided to go that direction.
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Really chart? Seminary school? LMAO!
"YES..."
oh Sorry, I thought you were joking!
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Those puts are looking really good Chart...congratulations. I was really looking for the AROON to cross with a negative money flow, but I'm guessing that isn't going to show up until its too late.
Shorting options sounds really interesting, but I'm going to have to do a bit more thinking on that one. Let's see if I get this...you buy a contract of XYZ for .05 (-$50), then you sell that short at .05 (+$50) and then hope it expires worthless?
Sorry to hear of your family troubles. I hope better days find yall soon. Good luck on the seminary school as well, if you decided to go that direction.
Thx, change is certain! Nothing stays the same The BEST advice I can give anyone about options is to actually trade in a "virtual" account, see what happens LIVE. At Optionsxpress . com you can open an account FREE and have all the benefits the site has to offer!
Open a Virtual account under "Tools."
There is also a LIVE WINDOW that you can use during trading hours to answer all your questions, talk with a REAL PERSON...
You can place $1 million dollars in your virtual account and set your trading level at any level. Buy all kinds of options and make note of what and how they do in REAL TIME. You will virtually buy and sell and see orders filled or still open.
IMO a virtual account at Optionsxpress is a MUST!
Test drive for FREE!! And use all the tools and scanners and CHARTING TOOLS free!!! LOL ~
Can't beat that with a stick! -------------------------- .UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 $1,300.00 2.08 $2,080.00
Profit now $780.00 [edit: now $790.00] Posted by Chart walker on :
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 bought for $1,300.00 2.14 is selling for $2,140.00
Profit now at $840.00
Posted by Chart walker on :
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 bought for $1,300.00 now worth 2.31 = $2,310.00
2 day Profit $1,010.00 almost 100%...
Posted by new2stocks on :
wow, you made that in 2 days? AWESOME! I want on the money boat! Posted by Chart walker on :
Current status: 2 trades open.
.QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put 20 $1.31 bought at $2,620.00 1.41 now worth $2,820.00
Profit $200.00 This option was negative over $1000.00 days ago, but we are at an extreme top and have a 6 month option! -no worries.
When the market did a "head fake" and shot upward we bought our "gift" option 2 days ago.
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 bought for $1,300.00 2.44 now worth $2,440.00
Profit of $1,140.00
Wait till you see what these are worth in May Everything is in journal form in this thread, no reason anyone can't paper trade these "extreme" tops and bottoms and make money IMO.
Posted by Chart walker on :
Over 100% profit now in just two days.
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 $1,300.00 2.61 $2,610.00
Profit $1,310.00
This is way I stay away from the "middle" and play the extremes as noted in this thread...
Posted by SherriT on :
Congrats Chart! I wired in some money to try and buy before it shot down, but it STILL isn't credited
Sorry to hear things are not going well for you. As we have been discussing frequently in SS lately, there is a reason for everything and something good will come out of it - I believe that too. Something better is waiting for you down the road! Thank you so much for everything!!!
Posted by SherriT on :
Questions (from your blueprint post above):
"---now the catch... "The Rich" (the powers that be) KNOW this too...
They have set up "requirements" now which must be met in order to short a Option contract, otherwise EVERYONE would do it! 1) you must have at least $10,000.00 in your account, some are more then others... ($50,000.00 for an Index Option).
2) you must have Margin
3) level 5 trading account status..."
Are the cubes considered an index option?
What is the Level 5 trading status? How do you know what you are?
Gracias mi amigo!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Good Morning Board!
SherriT.. At optionsxpress you can check your level by clicking account info. Of course you can always chat LIVE with a real person by clicking the chat tab and a window will open...
You can ask any question you have there about stocks, options, taxes etc...
And yes better days are coming!!
-right after the 12" of snow coming hits Wisconsin over the next two days I'm going to NEED some better days!! LOL ~~
ALLSTOCKS ROCKS!!
Have a wonderful day all ~
Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
43.51 42.86 41.77 40.05 38.41
From above, these are our support levels...
We closed at $43.19 which broke our $43.51 so $42.86 should come today.
I had said earlier that I didn't believe the BS that the press was pushing about the BULLISH market... People have LOST BILLIONS from IRA's, 401k's, stocks etc.
Again I make the case for people to know charts and indicators, because it is wealth to you Because yesterday as many investors LOST everything they had gained over the last year, other investors "in the know" made a futune!
-Not rocket science, That's the good news!!
Watch the BOND market take off now as money flows into it...
GL Board!
Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
Looks like today will ROCK!!
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 bought for $1,300.00 2.75 now worth $2,750.00
Profit of $1,450.00 over 100% on our investment now in just 3 days...
Posted by Chart walker on :
I would expect Stochastic to fall below the 20 mark, I think to play it safe on "this side" of the correction in price you may want to wait until the bounce up is done...
In otherwords, wait till Stochastic resets itself and and crosses positive and wait till it crosses negative again, you are hoping for the price to bounce up making your PUT cheaper to buy. The main trend is still down as noted in the gallery view page at Stockcharts . com
Note the last indicator... Stochastic RSI BUY Puts when this in at the TOP of it's indicator, and CALLS when it's at the bottom of the indicator. As you can see it is at it's bottom, so right now a PUT would not be bought...
Long term you could buy a PUT now, but you want to squeak out every cent and make it as profitable as you can. That is way I was buying PUTS when this indicator was "hot" (high).
What we did and why.... The Weekly chart (weeks ago) told me the market was due for a correction, the daily told me it was "hot" so I bought the first PUT. The market did a "head fake" and went higher on weak volume and gave us a "gift" we bought another PUT 3 days ago, again, when this indicator was "hot."
It has now fallen, but obeys the indicators. So read the indicators like a book, especially the RSI Stochastic and you should time it right on.
Because we are now "in" the correction, I would buy more towards the money then out of the money.... -my 2 cents.
Hope this helps SherriT! Posted by new2stocks on :
Chart, maybe instead of Seminary school to be a Pastor how about becoming a Financial Advisor? Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Chart, maybe instead of Seminary school to be a Pastor how about becoming a Financial Advisor?
Let me hear an Amen!
I suggested that one a long time ago - LOL!
Posted by JLo on :
Shorted THC march 8 calls just before earnings. Now THC is trading in the hi 6's. Letting it expire. Repo is right. But you got to do your homework and have exit strategy.
Posted by JLo on :
By the way, I wouldn't discount the seminary career track. Ever heard of "winning the whole world but lose your soul" ?
Saleh
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Chart, maybe instead of Seminary school to be a Pastor how about becoming a Financial Advisor?
There are MANY paths there, financial, music, food, --it's endless...
Just looking for "something" truly rewarding
Now back to Options!! In "the big picture" with Asian markets and with Bond funds now loading up, it seems the much waited market correction is REALLY here this time. Doesn't look like yet another head fake.
Buying at "extremes" you can buy more and more with every "headfake." Can't/wouldn't do that in the middle area!
-Although another "gift PUT" would be nice!!!!
QQQQ gapping down hard right now, $42.58 as I write this, down from yesterdays close of $43.33.
What amazes me is that some people will lose alot of money, and at the same time a little charting knowledge is making others rich... Those of us who bought PUTS are going to make serious money here. And all we had to do basically was look at a FREE site (stockcharts gallery page) and understand what was there...
"Knowledge IS power"
The power of NOT jumping in but waiting for an "extreme" to jump in is priceless... Stay away from the middle area IMO. The big, "quick" money is at the two extremes.
I hope everyone here adjusted their IRA's and 401k's to Bonds, I would expect this cycle to take about 6 months [look back at the weekly history chart in the gallery page at stockcharts. com].
I like flipping from the Euro-international funds to bonds and have done very well in my retirement plan. Careful, some Funds screw you if you don't stay in them for a certain amount of time. Vanguard Mutual funds like to do this... FYI
FWIW.. If I'm not on here we have some very nasty weather rolling through our area, last time we lost power for one - two days! So I may be having a snowball fight with the kids but I'll be back when the power is back on!!! LOL
Take care Borad! Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
.UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 bought for $1,300.00 3.04 now worth $3,040.00
Profit of $1,740.00 day 4
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: .UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 $1.30 bought for $1,300.00 3.04 now worth $3,040.00
Profit of $1,740.00 day 4
OK new question....
When we were first looking at the QQQQ puts, you purchase a June 43 PUT, and I am sure you are still holding that...would you buy another one like that now - since you know it matched the original indicators?
Posted by Chart walker on :
SherriT
here is the first PUT. .QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put 20 bought at $1.31 total $2,620.00 worth 1.51 or $3,020.00
White candlesticks and we are going down! ha ~ talk about confusion in the market place...
$43 is a magic number. 43 was support/res many times. So $43 is still a good buy in point IMO. Fire up your intraday charts and see in the 5 min if the cubes will go higher today, if so wait and let the price of those PUTS fall some for you.
Posted by new2stocks on :
With all that knowledge Chart, are you rich yet? Posted by JLo on :
short 20*April 50 CAL calls * 1.05 buy back * .35 held 2 weeks
net .80 * 20 = $1600 minus 2 commish
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by JLo: short 20*April 50 CAL calls * 1.05 buy back * .35 held 2 weeks
net .80 * 20 = $1600 minus 2 commish
Yes, but you have to have the minimum balance and trading level for that...nice play though!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Nice one JLo
The cubes seem to be gapping again down hard, .50 so far today
Dow, Nasdaq Poised to Open Lower AP - U.S. stocks headed toward a lower opening Friday for the final session of a wild week as investors were left without the plethora of economic data seen lately and instead looked to a falling dollar and a few big profit reports.
Hey Chart, I have a new option play that involves dividends (qualified dividends).. Almost fool proof.
Let me know when you're around so you can help me do some DD to see if it is actually a good plan.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Boy repo, that's quite a tease Posted by Repoman75 on :
Ok, here's the general concept...
First you need CAPITAL ($10K's) to play this.
Pick a stock with low volatility (NYSE Blue chip) that is going to pay a QUALIFIED dividend.
Buy the stock the day before the ex-date. Also sell a call for the same amount of shares. After the ex date and the price adjustment, dump the shares and buy back the call.
You should make money not on the stock price, but on the dividend and the call (call will be slightly less when you buy it back - it doesn't adjust exactly like the stock).
The qualified dividend part is good for tax reasons.
I haven't figured out the details like which calls to sell in terms of strike prices yet, but I wanted to do a test.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Cool. Good luck. let me know if you get the details ironed out.
Posted by Repoman75 on :
Where's Chart? I want to run this by him...
Do a few test runs.
Posted by SherriT on :
Chart has been really tied up of late - it may be the weekend or Monday before he sees your post...
Posted by SherriT on :
Board, I have hit a milestone...I bought my first option today
Don't expect to make a ton, but I feel reasonably safe with it.
Thanks for all of the tips here!
Posted by SherriT on :
I checked EOD, and I was up $50 on a $900 investment in one hour, and I didn't have any fear about it...
DEFINATELY on to something....
Posted by JLo on :
Short 30 * THC march 8 calls * .10 One day before earning, now THC trades in hi 6's. Letting the calls expire, because it isnt eating up much on my margin account.
So far the market downturn is helping me. I have other short calls. Only Puts I am short is GM April 27 1/2. GM seemed on rebound so I let it stay.
Last couple months have been flat. Trying to make up for last ground here.
Posted by SherriT on :
OK Chart, these are kinda options and kinda chart questions...I was looking at the weekly charts you posted previously for the cubes, and decided I would pull up the charts of some of the others you mentioned...GOOG, MSFT, SPY, etc. and see if I could pick the buy points and what you would attempt to buy...correct me if you would...
MSFT you could have bought a 22 or 23 call once you had that long white candlestick in July 06 - then, in Jan, a put at 31 or 30 would have been the thing once those red candles confirmed the downtrend...that Stochastic is a no-brainer, isn't it?
GOOG looks like it is at the bottom, or nearly at the bottom of the Stochastic and the Accum/Dist is turned down...the candles I don't like as much because it isn't a clear up or down to me...by the indicators, I would say call, but I would likely stay away from GOOG because of the wide strike price variation at the levels GOOG trades at...
SPY - man, this one looks like an extreme top, so I might even consider a put on this next week for September (or whatever the next period is after June) just out of the money. All indicators pointing down, or turning that way at least...
OK, that was enough questions...how close was I?
Posted by JLo on :
Shorting DOW march option on Monday.
Posted by milliam on :
Call or Put??? I'm assuming a call.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: I checked EOD, and I was up $50 on a $900 investment in one hour, and I didn't have any fear about it...
DEFINATELY on to something....
WTG SherriT!! Rock on! No doubt you're a little more ahead today with the present drop! Remember gaps fill but EOD shows what's going on. they'll bouce around but market is weak right now...
Status on our experiment:
Our FIRST Put .QQQRQ QQQQ JUN 43 Put 20 for $1.31 cost us $2,620.00 selling now for 2.09 $4,180.00
Profit of $1,560.00
Our second Put .UQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 10 for $1.30 $1,300.00 selling now for 3.41 $3,410.00
Profit of $2,110.00 -approaching 200% Posted by Chart walker on :
REPO... -word had it you were banned! lol ~ Welcome back!
Your questions are very deep, give me a week to work through some models and back testing, -as well as "what if's." I'll get back to you... Interesting. Do you think it can out perform what we are doing with these straight CALLS and PUTS at "extremes?"
That's my biggest question, -the bottom line Posted by SherriT on :
Unfortunately Choicetrade has been having system problems this morning, so not able to take advantage of my new found info...read some more this weekend
Can hardly wait to dump some pennies and buy more options! LOL!
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: OK Chart, these are kinda options and kinda chart questions...I was looking at the weekly charts you posted previously for the cubes, and decided I would pull up the charts of some of the others you mentioned...GOOG, MSFT, SPY, etc. and see if I could pick the buy points and what you would attempt to buy...correct me if you would...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p03316799780 =========================================== Looks like everytime the Stochastic breaks below that 20 mark of it's indicator you should radar for a CALL, right on SherriT ================================================ . . .
MSFT you could have bought a 22 or 23 call once you had that long white candlestick in July 06 - then, in Jan, a put at 31 or 30 would have been the thing once those red candles confirmed the downtrend...that Stochastic is a no-brainer, isn't it? ================= Looking at that MSFT chart makes you wonder how much you could have made! Nice rides up and down. ======================================
GOOG looks like it is at the bottom, or nearly at the bottom of the Stochastic and the Accum/Dist is turned down...the candles I don't like as much because it isn't a clear up or down to me...by the indicators, I would say call, but I would likely stay away from GOOG because of the wide strike price variation at the levels GOOG trades at...
SPY - man, this one looks like an extreme top, so I might even consider a put on this next week for September (or whatever the next period is after June) just out of the money. All indicators pointing down, or turning that way at least...
OK, that was enough questions...how close was I?
===================================== http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?SPY Yep! Right on SherriT, that's what I saw a week or two back, (posted it somewhere...) notice that the indicator (PPO) on the Weekly chart in the gallery page was negative for some time...
The "signs" that where there for the big turn down were the red volume bars in the daily and the lower volume over all.. Volume is the fuel that feeds the fire -And NOTHING that runs that long and hard stays up forever!
I think you're doing great! looks like you have found yourself a side income stream
Love these "Big Boy" stocks because the BS isn't there like with the pennies... And when you know what the indicators are "telling you" combined with playing the extreme tops or bottoms and buying 6 month contracts you almost can't not make money at this...
Remember, mistakes that you make are WORTH GOLD!!
--That is where your learning comes from, when you go back and find out what you missed as far as "signs."
Cause then you are even better then before!
Peace out peeps!!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Bought another today...
5 QQQ June 42 Put for under 1.50...I figured if the trend was heading that way, I can probably stand to make 20% or so on it since the 43 is doing nicely, and the out-of-the-money current status made it cheap
AMD looks ripe for a call...below its 52 week low and all indicators are bottomed out. Might be able to wait another day or two for a bigger bottom, but....
Posted by milliam on :
I pulled the trigger on some QQQQ June 40 puts. Got them at open this morning and paid a premium. I still expect them to do fine though.
Posted by SherriT on :
Man, it's like someone turned a light on....I see more buying ops than I have funds! LOL
This is just way too darn much fun! Posted by SherriT on :
I figured I would add my stats on the day since I am the only one here right now :
5 QQQQ June 43 Put Cost 1.80 ($900), Current 2.06 ($1030)
5 QQQQ June 42 Put Cost 1.50 ($750), Current 1.63 ($815)
Not bad for purchases since 1:00pm last Friday!
THANK YOU CHART!
Posted by JLo on :
Today's action: No Action
DOW March 45 Call Short didnt reached my sell limit. DOW Chemical has suitors including Indian firm (unlikely). Even humors will pump it up. Feb 26 gap up $3. Decided to let it go even tho in all likelyhood its all hot air. DOW board will fight take over (look at GM). Basically waiting for smoke to clear.
Posted by SherriT on :
This morning I bought:
15 DYNUU Sep 7.50 Put Cost .50 ($750)
And now, I bought:
8 AMDJU Oct 16 Call Cost 1.36 ($1088)
Posted by SherriT on :
Got a few more QQQQ puts with the jog upward today...hope that was a good decision.
Anyone else here???
Posted by JLo on :
Today:
Found different target.
* Short YHOO Apr 25 put * open for 0.15
* Buy to close NVDA March 35 Calls * 0.05 collected 0.25 for it, held since Feb 26 profit 0.20 or 80%
Posted by SherriT on :
JLo, do you short everything Option wise? Seems like you are doing very well....if you don't mind my asking, what quantities of the contracts are you able to purchase? Realistically, many people can afford to buy large numbers of shares of penny stocks but getting out with profit during a run can be difficult. I just wondered if you stick to small $ amounts like 1K or if you successfully trade a single purchase with more than that?
Posted by JLo on :
Lately I've more shorts than longs. It made up for the last couple months when I had been flat. Contract size, its what ur comfortable with and what your margin account allows. Usually I have 5-6 positions in my account, when I take one off, I put one back on same day or in a couple of days. Total# of contracts can add up. Like everyone else, I am always ready to improve like learning more to help make better decision like more charting and that dividend idea is intriguing.
Posted by SherriT on :
OK. I was thinking about Chart's example of dividing into 5 parts, and eventually, if you doubled each time and reinvested that amount, you would be in the hundreds of thousands. I wondered how difficult it is/would be if you wanted to sell 250 contracts or so...I just have no experience with amounts that high, not so much that I would be uncomfortable doing it...
Posted by Jenna on :
Hey guys,
Just wanted to let you know I am studing up on options so I can join you in trading them....It's going to take me a while to understand it though....
Good Luck to all & I'm watching!
-Jenna
Posted by thesource on :
I'm on here lurking as well . I've dabbled in options a few years ago but never really made a serious effort .
Posted by Jenna on :
Well study up boy then you can join the party right after me..... Posted by SherriT on :
10 said she is going to read up on them this weekend. I can hardly wait until it get closer to expiration on mine to see just how well they do.
Also? (man, I have started typing like 10 too LOL) I think the best day trade or short swing ones are going to be the options with about 1 month to expiration. Any thoughts any of you who have done this before?
Posted by thesource on :
quote:Originally posted by Jenna: Well study up boy then you can join the party right after me.....
I actually moved my Roth over to E-trade and plan to only invest in big boards and options with it . No POS penny stocks for that account .
On a side note , I've finally made back some of my losses in penny stocks from last year . Up about $1400.00 in the last two weeks but still have a ways to go .
Posted by Jenna on :
Hey guys,
I have to apply to trade options, with Scottrade, even though I already have an account with them....I have to apply to add that kind of trading to my account....
Anybody out there trading options using Scottrade or should I use someone else?
Posted by JLo on :
Its too risky to write 250 contracts on single company or index. Thats 25,000 shares you are shorting. Assuming the underlying is $30, that means your at risk is 3/4 million$. Incidently the margin to do that is 25% or $187,500.
In another thread "Index vs Company Option", I take the opinion that an index option position is nowhere to hide when it trends against you.
Basic but true at least for me: diversify.
Posted by milliam on :
Jenna, I think all trading accounts have to sign up for the option trading. They'll make you sign a bunch of stuff that says "options are risky and not for everyone". Its amazing how often you'll see that. I use TDA for mine and its just fine as far as I can tell. I'm sure some of the more options oriented companies (optionsexpress, etc.) would be better, but for now any of the onlines should do for you.
Posted by milliam on :
Sherri, you are correct that the near term contracts will be the best to swing or day trade. They will move very fast, but that goes both ways...up or down. If you can get the direction correct, there's big money to be made with them.
Also, you've got me a little worried with your statement "I can hardly wait until it get closer to expiration on mine to see just how well they do"...I just want to make sure you understand the workings here. Unless the stock continues in the direction you want, your options will be losing money. If the stock stagnates, you'll still be losing money based on the time value alone. Sorry if you know this, I just don't want to see you get surprised.
Posted by Chart walker on :
QUICK notes! I like an index fund because it's already diversified, -single stock's can tank on one bad PR/news, and even "over" selloff. Where an index fund is more "averaged" and I've seen in the history of the charts that they tend to be less whip-saw and more predictable. There are a ton of ETF's out there as they are growing in popularity. ~ Major market moves are more predictable IMO (watch the FED and interest rates for example, etc.) -they move together (see below chart links).
examples: DIA IWM QQQQ SPY OIH VDE IYE IXC
Also, when really building up an account, I would have trouble flopping alot of money on Options (talking about my plan of splitting the account into 5, --as posted in detail earlier...) -but the "CONCEPT" of the POWER of doing that can be be seen.
Also, ETF's like the Cube's (QQQQ) are heavily traded (liquid!). The only thing I know of that is more liquid is the FOREX market... -which btw is why I've been trying to brush up on that animal, poking around the FOREX thread!
Again, there are a million ways to skin a cat, these are just my thoughts and my reasonings...
Everyone has idea's and opinions and allow us to see many angles,... "Priceless!"
This board is taking off, some good solid plays and ideas coming out here!
Also, start to notice how all the gears of the clock/market work... Compare these charts and see what can only be seen as a miracle as they ALL trade in basically the same pattern! Look at their charts!
"Understanding" is called for here. They do move in a connection with each other, in pattern, understanding them is power. Always ask yourself questions...
-Is there a "leading/lagging" index? -HOW do they move together? -Is there an "order" of movement... etc...
Gotta run board! GLTY All!
Chart ~ Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Sherri, you are correct that the near term contracts will be the best to swing or day trade. They will move very fast, but that goes both ways...up or down. If you can get the direction correct, there's big money to be made with them.
Also, you've got me a little worried with your statement "I can hardly wait until it get closer to expiration on mine to see just how well they do"...I just want to make sure you understand the workings here. Unless the stock continues in the direction you want, your options will be losing money. If the stock stagnates, you'll still be losing money based on the time value alone. Sorry if you know this, I just don't want to see you get surprised.
FWIW, -as stated earlier. I sell with one month to go as a rule of thumb on the 6 month contracts. This is the safest way I have thought up to date with options ~
Look up "Intrinsic value" and how it decays value for a deeper understanding, or simply sell with one month to go. Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Sherri, you are correct that the near term contracts will be the best to swing or day trade. They will move very fast, but that goes both ways...up or down. If you can get the direction correct, there's big money to be made with them.
Also, you've got me a little worried with your statement "I can hardly wait until it get closer to expiration on mine to see just how well they do"...I just want to make sure you understand the workings here. Unless the stock continues in the direction you want, your options will be losing money. If the stock stagnates, you'll still be losing money based on the time value alone. Sorry if you know this, I just don't want to see you get surprised.
FWIW, -as stated earlier. I sell with one month to go as a rule of thumb on the 6 month contracts. This is the safest way I have thought up to date with options ~
Look up "Intrinsic value" and how it decays value for a deeper understanding, or simply sell with one month to go.
Thanks Milliam and Chart....nice to have friends with warnings! LOL
In my statement about seeing the money, I am going to get too heavy into options until I have done a couple of plays and made a decent (10%) profit. I doubt that I will let it go long enough to lose too much money (if any), nor would I buy into anything that I really wasn't pretty darn sure of the direction. Pennies don't seem to follow the rules of the charts, but the big boards do (other than the occasionally jog here and there).
Posted by SherriT on :
Note: I couldn't edit my last post, but all of my current options are in June or Oct....that might explain part of my earlier comments
Posted by Jenna on :
Sherri- are you really in them or are you doing virtual trades?
Posted by SherriT on :
I am really in some for June and Oct now....I did a few virtual trades last night as well, but here I am speaking only of real ones....
Posted by Jenna on :
These are the choices we get when we go to buy an option:
Buy to open Buy to close Sell to open Sell to close
Guys would I be right to use these:
Buy to open
&
Sell to close
********************************
I do not want to write, I just want to buy the option & sell it (hopefully for a profit) before it expires....
Can anybody help, which buy & sell orders should I use?
TIA
Posted by SherriT on :
Buy to open and Sell to close are the two you will use for simply Calls and Puts...
Posted by Jenna on :
Thanks Sher- that's what I thought- just wanted to make sure.....
Currently I bought "virtual" options on OptionsXpress for now until I feel comfy....
Thanks for all your help guys & gals.... Posted by Jenna on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: Ok, now I'm going to let you in a a HUGE trick!
Learned the darn thing by accident!
Everyone and their mother knows a PUT makes money when a stock is going DOWN, and a CALL when price goes up...
But here's how to make a freaking TON of money with next to NO money! CHEAP!!!!
When you want to buy a CALL buy a PUT INSTEAD and sell it short!!! Or when you would buy a PUT, buy a CALL instead and short it!! WAY OUT of the money, the further the better! -the further the CHEAPER!!
--If you "sell to open" you are shorting it... Meaning it will make money when it does the opposite of what it is... Hence, I shorted CALL will make money when it FALLS in price! -or a PUT will make money when the price goes up!
Why does this make TONS of money?.... SUPER CHEAP CONTRACTS!!!!!!
While the "crowd" is buying PUTS you are buying CALLS and "selling to open" because you can buy them for CENTS!!
Here are two examples that I'm in right now... The first is NEAR the money the second was the WAY out of the money as far as I could go!
.QQQFV QQQQ JUN 48 Call --current price $44.41 -10 for $0.59 (my cost $590.00) [10 contracts] they are selling for 0.5 or ($500.00) Profit of $90.00 Almost 20%!
NOW look at this ONE!!
.QQQFZ QQQQ JUN 52 Call -20 for $0.05 or (my cost $100.00) [That's 20 contracts!] 0.04 = ($80.00) Profit of $20.00 -or 20%!!
ONLY $100.00 bought "20" CALLS that "sold to open" -that's what the "-" in front of the contract number means... In otherwords, I could buy CALLS WAAAAAAY out of the money CHEAP!!! In fact buy the ones that are the FAREST out that you can!!! And SHORT them and make money!
What a trick huh?!!
Clearly you can see that even a little bit of money can make you a TON with this "trick!"
---now the catch... "The Rich" (the powers that be) KNOW this too...
They have set up "requirements" now which must be met in order to short a Option contract, otherwise EVERYONE would do it! 1) you must have at least $10,000.00 in your account, some are more then others... ($50,000.00 for an Index Option).
2) you must have Margin
3) level 5 trading account status...
For those who really what to get on the fast track, there is your blue print and directions! But for this thread I'll keep to the basic straight CALLS and PUTS from now on but wanted to make mention of this powerful Trick...
I'm only too Happy to share this TRICK/info with you all. Should someone pop a Million Buck$ with this please let me know of your Bessing!! Hard times have fallen on my family and the health thereof, so I am not able to do anything mysely yet... --but I feel this knowledge should be shared...
Actually, I may not get to use this info for a long time as I'm contemplating going to seminary school to become a Pastor
GL Board!! Chart ~
Hey Chart!!
Wanted to let you know I tried to do it this way but it would only let me do a few, the others it wouldn't take the order due to not enough in the account.....(I am only doing vitual trades right now).....what do you suggest someone does if that doesn't work....
I put the orders in the regular way too- just to see what the difference would be...
for example I have:
.GTSE GT Jul 25 PUT (8) cost .95 ($760)
So I was going to also do you "trick" to see how they compare....I was trying to do...
Since I had a PUT - I was going to short a Call - the farthest one out of the money which I found to be a 35 call so I tried this...
.GTTG GT Jul 35 CALL (1) cost .95
...but it said I can't do it because I need 10,000 in my account, even though I am doing it virually right now & could add virtual dollars, I do not want to do that because I really won't have that much anyway........is there another way to do it?...or doing it the first way- would that be the best for now?
Posted by Jenna on :
Another question....for anyone....
I virtually bought this the other day:
.QQQRL QQQQ Jun 38 PUT (25) cost .33 (825)
Wondering if I may have went to far out.....
I think the Q's may get down to $38 by June....did I do this correct? & if so did I go out to far even though I think that's were it's headed?....
Is it better to stay close to the current price then place your Call or Put....
Posted by SherriT on :
I think you went way too far down....that would be a really risky put. You might make really going money on it, but if it doesn't get below 38, you get nothing.
I think the QQQQs will be down below 40 by June, so I have (in real trading) purchased a few June 44 Puts, 43 Puts, and 42 Puts. The 44 will make the most money if it gets lower....but I also paid the most for it.
Chart's advice was to look for the extremes, then on the 5 minute chart, peg the top (or bottom) and buy - you can save yourself a lot of money that way.
Posted by milliam on :
Even if you're buying 38 strike puts, it doesn't have to get below 38 to make money. As long as the stock moves down towards your strike price before too much time runs out, you will still make money. Basically, people will be buying the option on speculation that it will reach that, or they'll be buying to close that option that they sold.
If you went out real far (both time and strike price wise) and picked a contract selling at $.05 per share, its very possible for you to double that money quickly...if the market moves in your direction, fast enough and far enough. It doesn't ever have to get to your strike price, as long as you have time value. If you only have a month or so left and you're still way out of the money, then you'll be likely to expire worthless.
Posted by Jenna on :
Ok guys thanks so much for explaining it....
so basically, it is the safest to buy near the current price & place a call or pull, then to go farther out-of-the-money, but the farther you go the more you can make but more than likely it will wind up expiring worthless....
Correct?
Posted by SherriT on :
Thanks Milliam - I wasn't thinking about that aspect of it (being able to day trade it, etc if it were close.)
Posted by SherriT on :
QQQQ is FINALLY starting to fall today....I hated seeing that one go up!!!
Posted by Jenna on :
I know Sher- I wish my order was real....
Posted by Chart walker on :
-remember the momentum bar trick on a MACD, that will tell you when short runs like that are coming and going... -wink
I like this guy, real down to earth charting, a great place to learn about charts and indicators.
Have a great weekend peeps!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Thanks Chart! Have a great weekend all!
Posted by JLo on :
Hi Chart and Others,
Some questions about the Huge Trick:
Is this: short put instead of buy calls, and short calls instead of buying puts ?
Also in,
"Since I had a PUT - I was going to short a Call ...". Jenna seems to be saying she's playing a combination. In this case a reverse synthetic stock consists of the combination she mentioned? I thought we were talking about straight calls and puts. I can use some help here.
Posted by Jenna on :
JLo- Don't mind what I said.....I already had in my regular orders when I went back & re- read the thread & saw Chart's "trick" then I was going to try that while I had my others orders already in and compare but my account is just virtual....
Also, those "trick" orders, most never went through because I would have needed 100,000 in my account..... Posted by JLo on :
When done right, is it selling calls/puts, or combination of long + short as in synthetic stock ?
Posted by SherriT on :
I think Jenna is not buying long + short in the same stock....only simple calls or puts in the direction she expects.
Man, don't I wish this downtrend would continue on the cubes!
Posted by Jenna on :
Right Sherri- just simple Puts & Calls for me...
Posted by Chart walker on :
Here's a weekly chart, we're going down SherriT! lol ~
Notice too that on a Weekly chart only once a year does the Stochastic fall below the 20 line of it's indicator... We are falling right for it!
See the support/Res line at about $43? Draw it from today back to the start of 2006 where it started, now our next "goal" is the $40 mark. That amount was set back at the end of 2004, beginning of 2005, see it?!
Now look along that line all the way to the present, the cubes bounced off that line both ways, up and down, so this is a strong area of support/Res and our next target!!!
Booyaah!
Was nice stopping in! Take care till next time!
Chart ~ Posted by SherriT on :
I'm learning...didn't buy my options early enough, but you can bet I will be there for the next round of calls in the summer! I should still make some nice money on them.
Posted by Jenna on :
Chart - what do you think about Goog- looks like it may continue to fall...
Posted by JLo on :
March Expiration day! Hung on at the end to wins on GM,YHOO,UAUA..etc. Had to aggressively buy back CFC calls because it was running away. Market looks to CFC to survive and do well with less competitions among home lenders. I read it wrong, thinking it will at least stay flat among the carnage left by subprimes, corrected my mistake with small slippage and moved on. Didnt get my last day wins because of bad CPI report this morning and negative sentiments overwhelmed.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by Jenna: Chart - what do you think about Goog- looks like it may continue to fall...
Hey Jenna
Dr. Joe is charting GOOG, it's about half way down the page, FYI ~
The cubes need to quit horsing around and fall already - LOL!
Posted by milliam on :
I agree Sherri...I'm right at my stop loss, but haven't broken it yet. The chart looks like we could go either way. Looks like a little support here, but will it hold?
Posted by SherriT on :
I believe it will go down, or I never would have purchased in the first place, though, I wish I had sold when it went up, bought back low, etc, even with the higher commissions.
Won't make that same mistake again...even if I don't get another entry.
This thing has historically started going down every year around April/May (noticeably anyway)....at least the last two years.
In short, I think we are good Milliam!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Accumulation isn't anything to write home about... CMoney Flow is Negative, and not racing to the positive side... Stochastic is oversold and cycling which is giving us a head fake IMO. Volume is the fuel for the fire, and clearly it has been drying up over the last couple days so I don't think much will become of this.
This is where "The Battle" is "resist. 43.52"
Surely it will try to break above it, then if it does it will retest this level, "if" that happens and it holds then it has a chance to run some more yet.
But with the low volume and negative CMoney Flow I think the Puts are just fine IMO
Take care board Chart ~
Posted by milliam on :
Thanks Chart...that makes me feel a little better.
So what would you see on the charts that would signal that the puts aren't just fine? Just wondering what I should be looking for.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Thanks Chart...that makes me feel a little better.
So what would you see on the charts that would signal that the puts aren't just fine? Just wondering what I should be looking for.
Excellent question ~
Accumulation indicator pointing straight up and the CMoney Flow doing the same on rising volume...
That would NOT be good...
But it looks to me like Stochastic has today and maybe tomorrow to run it's course before it's in the overbought range of the indicator and will then cycle downward.
Depending on CMoney Flow and Accumulation will depend on whether price climbs or stays about the same as Stochastic runs through it's cycles...
You can always look at BACKTESTS with indicators to milliam, note what they do before the price rises or falls, that's the best way to get a "read" on a stock.
--Example: Jan 10th CMoney Flow went positive and accum grew along with volume, -the price reacted to that and went higher...
I'm just not seeing "strentgh" in this chart for the current run, the history of the chart and indicators tells us what it needs to react a certain way, either up or down, so I have to call this a headfake...
-my 2 cents
GL!
Chart ~
Posted by milliam on :
Thanks again!
Posted by SherriT on :
I sold my 43 puts the other day when the market went down, and bought 44 puts today cheaper than the 43s were...I'm getting it
(Edit: Should have waited a bit more - darn thing is dirt cheap now!)
Posted by milliam on :
What the heck happened? I thought we were on course for a pull back and now!!!!
Crap!
Posted by SherriT on :
Now is the time to buy more....seriously.
We have three months basically until expiration...this thing gets even back into the 42s, and we have dollars....
I just bought some 45 puts at that price....I really wish I would have waited on the 44's, but it was still a good price.
Posted by milliam on :
Well, the volume has edged up today and the accumulation is still riding upward, but the Cmoneflow is still engative and we're almost into overbought on the full stoch.
Chart...what say you?
Posted by SherriT on :
It's already starting to go down again....back to our lovely 43.52 I'll bet Posted by SherriT on :
And then back up...
We need a couple of days for it to settle down again - probably rallied because of the Fed decision.
Posted by Chart walker on :
I'll comment in morning --night peeps ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Night all!
Mental note: We need to be paying attention next Fed meeting and be ready to BUY!
Posted by JLo on :
Took profit on YHOO Apr 25 Puts today - buy to close. Released margin$ to make other plays.
Shorted CIEN too. My April positions look firm but its too early to predict. Mkt can turn on a dime. I like to keep positions month to month.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: Night all!
Mental note: We need to be paying attention next Fed meeting and be ready to BUY!
Got that right SherriT
So what do we think is the best "FED" watcher site?... Anyone know of sites that talk about the FED talks BEFORE a ruling comes out?. After the fact is a day late IMO ~
In pre-market the cubes haven't ran up in price, which tells me everyone is holding to see if there will be a selloff or a continued climb.
We are in a pullback, the market is weak, let's see just how much gas this news [Fed stood pat for the sixth straight session, leaving rates at 5.25%] gives the market.
resist. 44.69 hit 4 times resist. 44.42 hit 2 times supp 44.21 hit 2 times
We are right at another resist., point this morning so there should be a little tug of war battle to watch.
I was expecting the cubes to push past that last resist., (the one hit 17 times) but the FED news really rallied that, and now we'll wait for the retesting of the area and see how much market strength there really is.
The market could be getting "set-up" for an ultimate head fake. I say that because the market was burning out, the only strength came from the FED's news...
So after the next two days we should see our "true" market direction.
Have a great day Board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Well, it's down - has been bouncing around the 44.21 all day - broke it at least once. I say we go down! Posted by milliam on :
Yeah, it looks like it might just stall here. The full stoch is close to crossing and then we should get a nice dive I hope. I'm glad its holding here...that's a good sign!
Posted by SherriT on :
Nice to have someone to sweat this out with, milliam! LOL (and Chart, though you bought yours so cheap, I doubt you care!)
Posted by milliam on :
It is nice to have company in this!
Looks like we have an accumulation flatline. I hope this signals the top. Everything is looking pretty good now. The full stoch is about to cross and the money flow is still negative.
It needs to fall a bunch for me to get back green, but I think we'll be headed in the right direction for awhile.
Posted by SherriT on :
If you bought around the same time I did (and I think you did), when we were in the $42 and change range, we were making money....it didn't take that long to get there either. Heck just the other day in the run, I think mine "lost" half of its value...
Famous last words: "It'll go back up" Posted by Chart walker on :
Following Stochastic well
Let me introduce you to "soon to be friend" of ours... The "Ultimate Oscillator" indicator.
Notice EVERY time this indicator hits 70 there is a pullback right around the corner! Running 100% so far!!
--and guess where this indicator just was....
Stochastic now going negative too, and CMoney Flow negative I think the effect of that "good news" from the FED is about over already...
Enjoy the day Board
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
YAHOO! I'm ready to see some 43s again!
Posted by SherriT on :
Monday and Tuesday could be really nice for our portfolios if this drops just a tad more....I'm anxious to see the change just being in the money on another one....
Have a great weekend all!
Posted by milliam on :
Well, the accum/dist has finally turned downward, the full sto has also finally crossed and started down. CMF still negative....this should be a good run for our puts. I sure hope so...I need it!
Posted by SherriT on :
Yeah, I could stand to see more green - I was having a few great days, and then it just turned red the last 2-3....
Posted by Jenna on :
Does anybody here have a subscription to OptionMonster?
Posted by SherriT on :
Well let's sit back and watch as Stochastic's do what they do.... "reset from overbought to oversold!" LOL
You know for "quick" option flips buying when Stochastic is LOW and PUT's when high.... -well look at the indicators in the link above, think you'll see what I mean Stochastic RSI is right on the money!!
I'm been trying to find out what is the "best way" to play options, at the link above I think is the key... Buying 6-9 month options and writing next month covered CALLS against them giving yourself income also!
There are some "set-ups" the big Option players use and I'm slowly getting them!!!
I have several "plays" that I'll be posting here soon after some more reading and testing, but the Gust of it is owning a longer term option and selling shorter term contracts against it, since 90% of contracts expire worthless, -you would keep that money...
Buying a PUT or CALL is only HALF the game here!! IMO -Like I said spend some time at that site!
Have a good day Board! Enjoy the negative Stochastic cross!!! BOOYAH!!
You know for "quick" option flips buying when Stochastic is LOW and PUT's when high....
Do you mean buy Calls when Stochastic is low and Puts when high? (just checking)
Posted by milliam on :
Thanks Chart for another great chart. I've got them all book-marked and keep going back to them!
It looks like you're talking calendar spreads, not actual covered calls. If done right (like most stuff in the market), you should be able to rake in some good cash.
I tried a free trial back about 2 years ago with an internet company that would email you every day calendar spreads. They used some fancy software to figure out the undervalued options and sent them to their subscribers with pretty direct instructions. I can't remember the name, but I'm sure there's more than just that one out there. PowerOptions also has some stuff like that I think (www.poweropt.com).
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: Do what?
You know for "quick" option flips buying when Stochastic is LOW and PUT's when high....
Do you mean buy Calls when Stochastic is low and Puts when high? (just checking)
Right on SherriT Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Thanks Chart for another great chart. I've got them all book-marked and keep going back to them!
It looks like you're talking calendar spreads, not actual covered calls. If done right (like most stuff in the market), you should be able to rake in some good cash.
I tried a free trial back about 2 years ago with an internet company that would email you every day calendar spreads. They used some fancy software to figure out the undervalued options and sent them to their subscribers with pretty direct instructions. I can't remember the name, but I'm sure there's more than just that one out there. PowerOptions also has some stuff like that I think (www.poweropt.com).
Not a calendar spread... With this one you sell next month covered Calls (as many as you own through your 6-9 month option) then when they expire, write more for the following month and so on...
You own a 6-9 month Call so the Calls you sell will be covered, not naked, -which requires a margin and is RISKY.
It is said that 90% of Covered Calls expire worthless! So your chances are 9 to 1 that you will keep everything you sell...
In doing this you WANT the stock to stay FLAT and NOT go up or down...
I'll have to write it all out, it's really rather simple
Now let's TANK into the $43 again!!
Boy, can you imagine how we would've tanked if the FED had RAISED those rates!! WOW!
Later Board! Posted by new2stocks on :
never mind
Posted by new2stocks on :
I know this is the options room but is anyone familiar with Forex trading? Never mind again found the Forex thread.
Chart, I see you looked into that too....must you be everywhere? sheesh!
Posted by JLo on :
I have not been able to make covered calls work. One, you tie down serious $$ by owning stocks. And in order to recv decent premium you have to buy stocks that have some push in them. And by attaching it to a covered call, someone else pulls the string. I often miss the big move up when the stock went hot because the gain is capped by the option. Whats worst, if the big stock gain is right now but opt expires in 1-2 month, I can't cash it on the gain. In a month, some negative news on the stock or general mkt pull back, the gain evaporates.
Lets take the otherside, stocks moved down, you have a loss on your long stocks plus you have to buy back the option, which incidently held firm because its got time value going for it. The tiny prem$ you pulled seemed small compare to the stock loss.
Im all ears if there is some other ways to make this works. So far I don't favor this strategy.
Posted by milliam on :
I think Chart is talking about selling calls that are covered by owning longer dated calls. I've always heard this called a calendar spread myself. A true covered call sell is like JLo is talking about....you actually own the stock you are selling the call on.
By either name, I think Chart's plan would be much better as far as profit and risk. JLo brings up some interesting points though.
It would be great if we could paper trade one here on the board and see what happens.
Posted by milliam on :
Alright!!! Move on down Q's.
Everything is looking good, but the Money flow looks to be going postive.
Chart...can you comment on this?
Posted by SherriT on :
Yep - I was liking my account when we saw mid 43s...
I think the money flow was in regards to our little head fake....are you looking at the weekly or the daily on that? (just so I am on the same page)
Posted by milliam on :
I'm looking at the daily. The weekly shows almost a totally different direction.
Millian, Yep, a slightly positive Money Flow, Don't think it will effect the Stochastic's negative cross powered by the HIGH Volume!
-remember volume is the fuel! -works going up or down
We closed our gap at about 1 PM also...
Res is at $44.03 Supp at $43.57 (hit 18 times) and $42.93 (hit 4 times)
A 2 week 60 min chart is showing a sloppy DEcending triangle! BOYAAH!
Notice the big gap in support prices above, we may see a BIG move to the negative here again finally
We have volume selling off, and now if the CMoney Flow dries up..... -Look out!!
JLo... Excellent points! --I guess you do NOT have to BUY the shares to have them covered, but you have to own a longer term option. Hence Millian's "calendar spread." -or buying a LEAP (a year or more out Option).
But this one is different because they figured out that the shorter term Option's (6-9 month) yield more profit.
So it's like a calendar spread, only "tweaked." So yes Millian, you are kind of right big guy!
I will be putting up all these "plays" when I get answers back from all the questions I emailed. I think you'll find them very interesting!
A simple 3% a month from writing covered CALLS will give you and extra 40% a year!!
5% is closer to 90% a year!!! [5% of that new total every month]
-and that's doing what we are doing now, only adding selling covered CALLS to...
So we could really clean house here!!
Now let's hope we breach that $43.57 mark today! It's been hit 18 times so if we can close below that we might well see a huge move to the downside coming!!
Later Board!
Chart ~
Posted by new2stocks on :
chart don't be mean
Posted by SherriT on :
Oh, how I would LOVE to see that 42.93 support again Posted by Chart walker on :
Holy Chit!!
Closed at $43.52!!!
-remember huge support at $43.57 (18 times hit!) now BREACHED at close!!
This is GREAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IMO Posted by SherriT on :
Maybe we can hear a 42 tomorrow!!! WAHOO! (looked like it would go back up some during after hours trading though....)
Posted by lookin2trade on :
Hi to all, I have been reading this forum and decided to sign up so that I could post. I must say, you are some very smart individuals in here. I am just starting out in learning stocks and options. Chart walker really seems to have a grasp on things. I am hoping to learn more from you all. Chart walker, are you a professional trader? I am impressed with your knowledge.
Posted by Jenna on :
Chart is AWESOME!! He has taught us all a lot....& we're still learning.....
He has been very helpful with options...they are very complicated & he helps us to understand them....
Welcome aboard lookin2trade!!!
***Don't be alarmed if you don't get a response from Chart until tomarrow- I think he is gone for the day***
Again, welcome aboard!
Posted by lookin2trade on :
Thank you Jenna, I am looking forward to making some money! So Chart walker is the one that is teaching you all? Is he a broker or self taught? I probably won't have much to contribute to the board so I'll just sit back for a while, follow along and ask questions as we go.
Posted by SherriT on :
No, "Chart" is not a professional trader...he is one of the guys. As far as technical analysis, his name is right....I have been in stock plays where he calls the highs and lows right on the money. I am just starting to learn about options myself, and I would highly recommend a couple of good books...I was already reading them when Chart started this thread, so it has helped me understand things TREMENDOUSLY!
Jenna? I don't think Options are complicated really...there are a couple of extra things to learn instead of just the underlying stock, but if you can read charts, it is almost like reading a book IMHO.
Posted by lookin2trade on :
Hi SherriT, it is overwhelming for me right now as I am just a beginner. I hope "Chart" can guide me to the money. I keep going back to page 1 to try to grasp the idea. Should I first learn to read charts?
Posted by SherriT on :
I would not try to trade options until you have a firm grasp of 1) trading stocks in general, and 2) reading charts. You will end up losing your tail in options (I think) unless you can pick good purchases. Nothing is guaranteed, but at least charts can give you educated guesses.
Fair assessment all?
Posted by Chart walker on :
Good Morning Board
First, thx [blush] As promised below. Working on the first option "set up" also. This first part is done a nice summary of where we are ~
Have a great day all!
Chart ~
[FYI -This material I’m writing off line and pasting here at a later date when completed, I will do this as each is completed]
In this on going learning process, -which is what this is, we take an idea, then “attack” it and see if it stands, -everyone here helps to sharpen our trading idea’s.
The basic’s are PUTS and CALLS, and the SAFEST ones IMO are the ones at what I call “extreme” tops or bottoms (stay away from the middle) –however we have learned Stochastic is our friend yes? J. By that I simply mean that by looking at a WEEKLY chart we can “see” when an indicator get to a certain low/high point that it’s a pivot point historically, we watch all of our indicators and chart formations and buy in accordingly. Because we know we are at an extreme top/bottom if the stock suddenly takes off against us (like the QQQQ’s did when we bought our first PUT at $43) we know this is a “gift” because the indicators were already “hot.”
Ok, so we now know how to find the trend by looking at the weekly chart (gallery page at stockcharts.com) and how to find a pivot point so now we know how to find the “safest” plays IMO.
Now… --What’s the SMARTEST way to “play the plays?”
IMO, “Covered CALLS” along with our Option plays, why?
A 3% monthly return is over 40% annually with compounding. (5% and we are around 90%) –for basically free! This on top of our gains off the options.
Using charting skills I think we can hammer these IMO [$$$]
Quick facts: -Each option contract covers 100 shares of stock, 1000 shares = 10 contracts. -The price paid for the option is the Premium -According to CBOE only 1 in 10 Options are exercised (you have 90% in your favor!) -Calculate the rate of decay of a LEAP by taking the time premium of option price and dividing it by the number of months in the LEAP. -DIA is made up of 30 very large/established companies, each paying a dividend. -QQQQ is made up of the largest 100 non-financial companies on the NASDAQ. -The “return on investment” when buying a 6-9 month option is more then DOUBLE the return on investment that would result if the longest term LEAP were purchased. -Shorter-term options also are more actively traded and have smaller differences between the bid and asked price. -"Gaps" close. Play Gaps with a 3 month option!
[As I write this the huge gap that formed overnight is about half closed already, -easy money IMO.]
Now some trading “set-ups.”
Posted by SherriT on :
OK - now that brings up more questions ;-)
1) Don't you also like SPY? (Seems I remember that one being in an early list)
2) Please expound on the gaps part, and how you would play that with a 3 month option...
Posted by lookin2trade on :
Chart walker, you must have alot of time on your hands to learn all this stuff. Do you stay at home and trade? Is that your job? I can set my own hours with my job, but it is still hard to fit all this "learning" in. Does one need to be able to have alot of time for this for it to really pay off? If I can ask, have you been very profitable with options?
Posted by milliam on :
Chart, the "only 1 in 10 options are exercised" bothers me a bit. I think the website you posted glossed over it, but didn't really explain it much. I totally agree that probably only 1 in 10 are exercised, but this doesn't mean that 9 out of 10 call sellers have their options expire worthless. I imagine a good bit of them buy their sold calls back either at a profit or a loss.
I'm sure you're already aware of this, but I felt like it needed more discussion.
Posted by Chart walker on :
-lookin2...
I've stated in this thread that my trades here are virtual trades. I am in the middle of some very hard and pressing times, but they won't last forever. So, we are forming the "master plan" now, -together, right here.
Buying a winning CALL or PUT I can do
We are in the "tweaking stage." IMO
I'm a chart and indicator freak, they seem to "talk" to me This doesn't take alot of time, -it "IS" my time... Almost always studying, backtesting and reading.
I believe stocks are my "gift." So now I'm simply trying to figure out a way to become wealthy in a trillion dollar market and have nothing to lose by telling everyone just how I'm going to do it by proving it right here, day to day.
No BS. -period.
This is our hard earned money on the line.
Talk to you all tomorrow Board!
Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Chart, the "only 1 in 10 options are exercised" bothers me a bit. I think the website you posted glossed over it, but didn't really explain it much. I totally agree that probably only 1 in 10 are exercised, but this doesn't mean that 9 out of 10 call sellers have their options expire worthless. I imagine a good bit of them buy their sold calls back either at a profit or a loss.
I'm sure you're already aware of this, but I felt like it needed more discussion.
According to CBOE, "10% of options are exercised, 30% of options expire worthless, and 60% are traded out," -which means that holders sold their options and writters bought back their options, in order to close the positions.
But cut it how you will, options that traded out to close positions are not exercised, so only 1 of 10 options written gets exercised.
That's the whole picture ~ Hope it helps!
Gotta jam!!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
With the news about Qwest being in the game for the national contract, and all of the other talk about it, I just bought some October calls - VERY cheap right now!
.15 for a 12.50 call and .55 for a 10.00 call
Posted by Chart walker on :
I will talk and use the “cubes” (QQQQ) and the DIA for examples. I like these two because they are extremely liquid, very small spread between bid and ask and there are far more strike prices, not $5 apart like some. The QQQQ and DIA options receive preferential tax treatment too. 60% of your gains are considered to be long term even if held for just a single day, -taxed at 15%. File with form 1256, -QQQQ and DIA options only, not the stock… Now onward!!
I’ll start with the easiest, and work to very complicated, long plays that traders are using
Strategy # 1 [*Trading rules may vary when trading in regular stocks]
GAP Strategy Simple, wait for a gap up or down in Pre-market and bet that the gap will close. Buying a 2-3 month out option is very safe, however higher returns may come from a shorter-term option. Remember, this play should only last one day then be sold. It’s really that simple. Look back at the history of the cubes and how the gap closes usually that same day, otherwise closes soon after. I think you need to keep this strategy in mind no matter what “play” you are doing because this is easy money, don’t be greedy, it doesn’t have to close 100% in order for you to sell… PAPER trade the GAP strategy using 1, 2 and 3-month options and see which one returns more, then post your findings here for all of us please…
Strategy # 2
Buy “extreme” PUTS or CALLS. Charts Strategy!! We have talked about this in detail here, it’s nothing more then buying options when there is a negative or positive crossover on a weekly charts indicator that has reached a certain low or high on it’s indicator where previously there were pivot points. Not all crosses will be “extreme” wait till the indicator gets low or high enough. –Again a look at the gallery page at stockcharts.com at the QQQQ’s will show you what I mean. If it head fakes more up or down concider it a gift, cause you're back is against the wall when playing extremes. Super safe!
Strategy # 3
“The Big Easy” [For use when the market is turning BULLISH]
1)Purchase “at-the-money” call options, choosing the options which expire 6 – 9 months out. 2)Sell the next month “at-the-money” call option. For every 10 long-term calls you own, sell 7 short–term options if the strike is slightly in-the-money, or sell 8 short-term options if the strike is out-of-the-money. 3)Do nothing else till expiration. 4)At expiration, buy back any in-the-money expiring calls and let out-of-the-money calls expire worthless. If the stock is within .25 of the strike price of an expiring option, place a “buy at the market close to close” order to buy back the calls. 5)At expiration, if the stock is within 8% of the strike price of your long-term calls, go to #2 above. Take any cash you generate from these new sales, and put on new positions as if you were starting at # 1. 6)At expiration, if the stock price is more then 8% above of below the strike price of the long-term calls you bought, close them out (sell them) and start at #1 above.
NOTE: To be used in a BULL market’s beginning, not end! If the market falls by 5% or more there will be loss, a 5% loss happens about twice a year FYI. This strategy involves using only a couple of trades at or near expiration day each month. No need to worry about Delta values or the other GREEKS. This is a good way to get your feet wet, -without taking a bath J
Strategy # 4
“Going to the MOON!” To be used when you believe a single stock is going to the moon sometime soon in the next 2 years. If you are right, you will earn 400% (or so) more then buying the stock alone. This is RISKY and a lotto ticket but WOW if it pays off! Use a small portion of your portfolio for these IMO.
In all the other strategies we don’t want the stock going way up or down and make our money if the market is flat and adjust our positions as the market cycles, but here we must have a price movement UPWARD.
If you think you can pick a stock that will double in two years there is a BIG payoff.
As a bonus if your stock pick doesn’t “fly” we’ll set it up to get your money back and you don’t lose anything. If the stock falls quickly you will loose money, but if it goes down slowly, or just a little you should be able to get all of your money back…
1)Buy the longest Term LEAP possible at the strike price nearest the current stock price. 2)Calculate the monthly decay the LEAP will experience over the time period if the stock stays the same price. 3)Each month, sell only enough out-of-the-money calls to bring in sufficient premium to cover the monthly decay.
Remember, with this strategy we are not trying to make money from selling short-term calls. We are betting on the stock going up strongly. We are selling only the minimum out-of-the-money calls to get our investment back in case we’re wrong about the stock.
Golden rule: When selling out-of-the-money calls, if the premium for a 2-month out call is more then twice as great as the premium for the one month out call, sell the 2-month out call. [This gains you more money per month than 1-month call, and you get your money now so it can be put to use on some other investment].
...more coming soon
-GNight Board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: With the news about Qwest being in the game for the national contract, and all of the other talk about it, I just bought some October calls - VERY cheap right now!
.15 for a 12.50 call and .55 for a 10.00 call
BTW, the price TODAY is around $9.00 and has been going up anyway....(see thread on Hot Stocks about the underlying entity)
Posted by JLo on :
Folks,
kindly please take a look at my new thread "Section 1256 Contracts and Straddles".
Posted by Chart walker on :
That support of $42.93 is calling!!
-Have a great weekend Board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
It's calling, but the QQQQs are not answering today...
Posted by Chart walker on :
I think the "fat lady" is clearing her throat Sherrit!
Everything is looking weak, CMoney Flow negative and growing Just don't see this as a bottom yet...
I want to leave you all with this to ponder...
I'm looking high and low for a "perfect" Option system, one that is super safe, super high yielding and doesn't take long... -aren't we all!
But I think the best "Strategy" I have seen yet is the very one we are trading here at Allstocks! That is... buying the "extreme" level pivot points with a straight CALL or PUT 6-9 months out.
Proof is in the pudding... Not long after the cubes here topped out and started running hot in the indicators, those PUT pick's I posted took off. One knocking on a 200% profit!!
And soon we'll be able to bounce along the bottom and catch Stochastic flips (lows) with CALLS as we wait for a run back to the top!! Sell when they reach oversold wait for them to bottom and repeat. One of those times the "big" correct to the top will come and we'll have bought in at the bottom!
I'm playing with the idea of writing "Naked Puts" when the Bull come out again. I've read that Naked Puts are very profitable (by FAR![according to that site "Callwritters"]) and that you don't need a high trading level to sell them.
So knowing what we know about charting and bagging these tops and bottoms how about writing naked PUTS when the BULLS start running?... Even naked CALLS when the BEARS are out...
Does anyone know of a reason why we couldn't?..
Later Board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
The naked stuff is risky, nasty, and unless you are loaded, you won't be able to do it. While I think it is a great thing to explore, I personally like the idea of honing what we are already working on, and adding the flips to it...once we get that perfected, then trying adding something to it.
Main reason I say that, other than available cash flow, is that most of us here are new to options, and if we start tackling too much, we will miss the mechanics behind it - strictly MHO.
I am waiting impatiently for the fat lady to start singing - LOL, but I can say this, buying a few of these, although some of mine were high at the time, has been a great lesson just to hold and watch throughout the trading day. I need to start paying attention to the DIA and SPY options too....they do move MUCH more than the regular stocks, and I would ideally like to be able to swing some of these index options....too much money to be made here!
Have a great weekend all! (and thanks Chart )!
Posted by new2stocks on :
EDIT~oops wrong board sorry
Posted by SherriT on :
Side note - I didn't explain my point about the "risky, nasty, and unless you are loaded part"....Chart, I know you and I have discussed this before, but the rest of the board may not be familiar. You can trade options based on your trading level, and to trade some of the naked stuff, you have to be level 5. Unfortunately, some places want as much as 100K in equity to do that, not to mention your income and trading experience plays a part in what they will approve you for...
That is the main reason I suggested sticking with the straight calls and puts, and playing the flip/swing on it....
Posted by JLo on :
20K in cash equivalent from Fidelity and level 4. You have got to be watching out and know when to get out in front of a moving train.
Posted by SherriT on :
There are some brokers that have lower requirements, like JLo said, but to trade the index options, it is generally higher than that...
Posted by pagolf22 on :
hello board:
thanks to everyone for the Q&A, what a huge amount of info to help understand the extreme tops/bottoms.
I am watching the charts of : QQQQ,AMD,HSY,PEET.
GLTA
thanks
Posted by SherriT on :
Welcome aboard, pagolf22! I have learned a lot from this board, and I hope you will have as good an experience.
I have contracts currently in QQQQ and AMD, but have not been paying attention to HSY or PEET. I'm curious as to why they are on your watch list?
Posted by Chart walker on :
-gap closed... FYI Posted by milliam on :
Wow, that was quick! I was expecting an up day for the Q's, but that didn't last long.
So from the chart, how are we looking? The full stock looks like its moved up a bit, but I expect it to return to its down trend now that the market has moved back down. Anything else of note?
I'm debating on doubling down on my put.
Posted by SherriT on :
I already did on the last upswing - just waiting for a good time to sell - and sooner would be better than later Posted by Chart walker on :
Interesting...
we are under the big resist of $43.54 and have a support at $42.93 next....
We have our 50DMA holding it down, but a slightly positive CMoney Flow, so it should retest the $43.54 level IMO.
If we close under $43.54 again that would be a very good sign for us PUTS Posted by SherriT on :
LOL - it retested right about the time I read this - and appears to be headed back down. Now for that close underneath it Posted by Chart walker on :
4 times on the 5 min chart it slammed right into it, so now it looks like "earthworm city!" LOL Posted by SherriT on :
YAHOO! Posted by SherriT on :
Just bounced again...down, that is...."set a spell, take your shoes off" LOL
Posted by SherriT on :
Broke the resistance this time....barely, but broken nonetheless.
Question is: can we close below again? I sure hope so!
Posted by SherriT on :
Answer to the above question is no. We closed above it - just barely, but above it.
Posted by Chart walker on :
50DMA to the rescue! Didn't get by that one whew ~ Posted by SherriT on :
YUCK - we did this morning - and back we cycle...
Posted by SherriT on :
I feel so alone in my suffering today Posted by milliam on :
You're not alone. I'm trying to think this one through. The volume is still pretty low, accumulation is up, but not drastically. The full stoch is moving upward and is crossing and the money flow is positive. We've broken the major resistance and 2 others above it (very minor ones mind you). I'm afraid we're in for a decent move up for the next few days. I still see a good move down in the future though and I'll probably look to double down.
Posted by SherriT on :
I think it is up just because all of the markets are up today....
I am looking to be back in the 43s tomorrow, and hopefully close below that 43.54 mark by EOW.
Posted by Chart walker on :
SALUTE! LMAO ~
Great huh?...
So now we watch as the old high is tested, around $44.50. Look back and see this pattern, long term everything is still in place IMO. If we don't go over that we'll head right back to where we were going ~
This is another reason why I like to be at the extreme end and say to stay away from middle plays. Oh well, that's why the account is divided up!
Full Stochastic flips have been right now FYI ~
Posted by lookin2trade on :
How do you guys keep up with this stuff? It's a busy time of year for me right now, I may have to put off learning options until things slow down. Thank you all for your help.
lookin2trade
Posted by SherriT on :
Lookin? I work full time and have two small children at home...for starters. It is just something I want to learn, so I peek at it at least a few times a day. Learn the charts and the stocks first IMHO...
Good Luck!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Let's play a game
Called... "How long before the GAP closes?"
I say EOW...
-btw this is why I said when playing a gap to buy a 3 month option Posted by SherriT on :
I'm having a crappy day and my brain is just not functioning well...would you mind getting a little more specific about the gap (assuming you mean the gap up from yesterday's close), why to play with a three month option, etc.
Of note, June is basically a three month option now since we are getting closer to expiration...
Posted by milliam on :
I added the April 43 put to my streamer this morngin just to see what could be done with a gap play. I'd like to hear more about the 3 month out choice on a gap play as well.
So far, the April 43 is down 30% from my theoretical buy in (.30, now trading at .20).
Posted by new2stocks on :
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Chart walker: [QB]
Chart * Rockfest 2006 lmao
Sorry I'm gone now.
Posted by Chart walker on :
SherriT...
When playing a "gap" one might be tempted to buy a cheaper "next month" option. I like to be a safe, that's why I mentioned that I would buy 3 month options. In looking at the past 3 months was enough time for the longer ones to close.
Most close the same day, a 3 month is an insurance policy
Sorry you are having a bad day, hang in there!!!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Posted by Lockman on :
Mind if I join the group? I like this you don't have to watch it every minute. Not to much to say at first but Iwill be following . Thanks Chart
Posted by SherriT on :
Welcome aboard Lockman! This is really an AWESOME way to make money, and doesn't feel nearly as risky (if you can read a chart anyway).
I just hate watching when it goes the other way, but still confident!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Lockman, welcome bud! Posted by SherriT on :
The more I sit and ponder, the more I realize I am missing out on some good money swinging options...I think I will start posting my trades, and maybe it will help someone else too...
Posted by SherriT on :
You know it really can be as simple as buying CALLS when the Stochastic falls below the 20% line (6 mo) and Puts when Stochastic goes over 80% and crosses negative.
-6 month just to be safe- wink!
Then watch it drop or rise and if a "stagger step" happens like now (that is Stochastic doesn't go straight down or up) then sell or ride it out. Look how accurate your trades will be if you only do that.... When it's in the middle of the Stochastic indicator (Dec 11th) then take a couple days off WAIT to pull the trigger!
I think the biggest thing with trading the cubes is WAITING for your trade! The more extreme it gets the better the bounce IMO ~
Two choices looks like...
Lazy way. You can go Long by buying a 6-9 month Call option on an extreme Stochastic crossover on a weekly chart and riding it out.
or...
Aggressive. Or you can watch a daily chart's Stochastic oversold/overbought indicator for buys and sells...
It's really as simple as that ~
The cubes today didn't cross the old high of about $44.50 so everything is still looking weak until that happens... IMO
G-night board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
It really is that simple - it's the riding it out part I hate - LOL
Up until now, I have been doing the lazy way, but I think I am missing some good profit, and it is time to be aggressive again.
Night all! Posted by Jenna on :
Hey Sher!
How are you guys doin'?
It's kinda cool to have the virtual account & learn with fake money!!! Posted by Lockman on :
You know it really can be as simple as buying CALLS when the Stochastic falls below the 20% line (6 mo) and Puts when Stochastic goes over 80% and crosses negative.
-6 month just to be safe- wink!
Then watch it drop or rise and if a "stagger step" happens like now (that is Stochastic doesn't go straight down or up) then sell or ride it out. Look how accurate your trades will be if you only do that.... When it's in the middle of the Stochastic indicator (Dec 11th) then take a couple days off WAIT to pull the trigger!
I think the biggest thing with trading the cubes is WAITING for your trade! The more extreme it gets the better the bounce IMO ~
Two choices looks like...
Lazy way. You can go Long by buying a 6-9 month Call option on an extreme Stochastic crossover on a weekly chart and riding it out.
or...
Aggressive. Or you can watch a daily chart's Stochastic oversold/overbought indicator for buys and sells...
It's really as simple as that ~
The cubes today didn't cross the old high of about $44.50 so everything is still looking weak until that happens... IMO
G-night board!
Chart ~
Chart I think your on to something. lol I love this stuff. Your the best!
Posted by SherriT on :
Here's another one to check out: CROX
I absolutely hate 'em, but it looks like they are headed for more big bucks over the summer....chart isn't all that much to write home about, BUT....man, wouldn't you like to have understood options last summer...can you even calculate how much money THAT would have been? Posted by SherriT on :
LOL ~ From your link: "Smart Money Sides With Bears"
Saaweeeet!
Well once you know a handful of indicators and that they monitor things, -just like a doctor would monitor a patient, then it's kind'a like cheating!! LMAO ~ You know when one's healthy or when it's about to have a heart attack!
I was going to post a very detailed option strategy, there are many rules and things to watch and it took me awhile to grasp it... But it boils down to this...
Option players are looking for the perfect "safari trade" (one you can place and go on a safari cause it's so good you don't need to worry about it) however, the more they try to take out the risk the more complicated it becomes and the more it effects your profit, -you just don't make as much as when you buy a straight Call or Put, PERIOD.
Trouble is many don't know about indicators, some know about charts and drawing trendlines, but that's only half the story. Trendlines won't tell you if it's overbought or oversold. Trendlines won't give you exact buy in points and sells either...
So needless to say the 27 PAGE strategy I'm not going to write out and post... -no point.
I like what I came up with (if I can toot my own horn
And I stated what that is right above this post with the "lazy way" and the "Aggressive way."
Just be sure to divide your account up into 3 or 4 "lots" and trade one of them at a time. We may fire off 2 or 3 Calls or Puts at these pivot points and we will have a "lot" left to play Gap plays.
Rules: Buy 6-9 month out options on our Calls and Puts and ALWAYS selling with 1 month to go -or sooner, -time decays options, -worse in the last month. And buying 3 month options for the gap plays (or be super safe and buy 6-9 month options for gap plays as well, -your call).
$43.60 and the gap closes btw...
So there, there are my findings to looking into this options business. Option players try to "set up plays" that will allow them to win no matter what the market does by trying to constantly keep a DELTA NEUTRAL position with their spreads, they do this by constantly selling or buying back options. Alot of work!
But if you truly can figure out a way to predict the market with any kind of accuracy with a trading "system" that luck has NOTHING to do with, then IMO you have the best options trading system because it will perform as it has backtested.
And my "extreme top/bottom" strategy I would put up against any of them, lazy way or the aggressive way.... -and it's SIMPLE!!
So, next what do you say we start flipping these babies?!!!
We'll run a straight chart, nothing fancy and simply flip according to the Stochastic indicator (being sure the other indicators confirm) and see what happen$
For people who may not know about charting and indicators I'll post links as we go. That's the best way to learn anyway IMO.
So, guess I'll see you all next time Stochastic hits a 20% or a 80% level ~
That's my 2 cents
Have a fantastic, SAFE Easter everyone!!!!
Chart ~
Posted by milliam on :
Sounds good Chart...maybe we should start a new thread when these trades start happening.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Sounds good Chart...maybe we should start a new thread when these trades start happening.
I like that, great idea milliam!
Posted by SherriT on :
I think flipping is a superb idea, Chart, and I would put the simple puts and calls up against any system too...I've seen it work, just didn't sell
I agree, milliam...let's start another thread that uses one stock, QQQQ seems to be our favorite, OK with everyone? And let's learn how to flip Lead on Chart! LOL
HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!
Posted by SherriT on :
I can't believe this thing is still going up with all the surroundings weak....
Posted by SherriT on :
Man - the prices of those 45 Puts are REALLY tempting!
Posted by milliam on :
It looks like she still has some legs running to the upside. The full stoch is still heading upward, but should be toward the top by the first of next week.
Posted by SherriT on :
Well, my luck continues - I dumped out of my AMD calls on Friday - they announce first quarter news this morning, and it is already up .50 pre-market....go figure
Oh well....I will learn one day.
Posted by Lockman on :
QQQQ SHOWING EXTREME STO ABOVE 80. GET YOUR PUTS AND LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
Can it really be that easy? well see.
Posted by SherriT on :
Yes it really is...if I had been flipping my positions all along (since end of Feb), I would have at least 2-3+ bagger by now....
Posted by Chart walker on :
I decided to buy 4 of them with the virtual account to see which one pays the best. April, May, June and Sept.
Of course the April option with 11 days left was cheapest. I want to see first hand how the 11 days left effects the option. I'll let you know ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
FWIW
All Puts are positive now accept the Sept $45 put (even).
Bought $500 of each (roughly) and the April put is at +$32. the May Put is at $10. and the June Put is at $4. The Sept Put is even.
FYI That's it for now ~ Posted by Chart walker on :
Consumer Confidence Falls Again LOS ANGELES (April 10, 2006) — Consumer confidence slipped for the third month in a row in April, with the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index registering a pessimistic score of 45.5, an 18-month low. This is down 5.3 points, or 10.4%, from March's reading of 50.8 and 4.8 points below its 12-month average.
Over 50 means optimism; below 50 indicates pessimism.
So far momentum bar is shorter --and I'm seeing a Stochastic cross negative Now to close below that $44.50 mark again and it's off to the bank to cash in those PUTS!!
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: Nice play JLo...looks like those shorter term options trade nicely for quick plays.
I'm seeing that the SHORTER term options are reacting MORE then the longer term ones....
There's the catch I guess... It'll pay more to buy "this months" options on a flip, but if for some reason (remember when the FED posting that news!) stochastic does a head fake you lose...
"Something to think about" Not that safe, but darn they pay good
In looking backwards in the charts, over 90% of trades should turn a profit if you aren't greedy and wait to long...
I think you would be fine if your account was divided into 5 parts and you bet 1/5th per trade, cause in backtesting clearly you would have won alot more then not...
FWIW ~
JLo how do you run your account??? Do anything special?
Posted by milliam on :
Well, it looks like its time to buy more puts or double down on what I've got.
I just can't decide on what to do though. The put I'm holding (should have cut it loose long ago) is way out of the money....its a June 40.
I don't know whether to double down on it (and average down to .37) or buy a closer to the money put (Jun or Sept).
Milliam, my 2 cents would be to go for a new Put. $40 was/is a target point, but then the FED kept interest rates the same and the market rallied, it may still pull back to there but I think it's time to get a new $45 Put, you could go with this months which expire in 10 days (cheap), -Stochastic does look like it's going to do a dive....
Or snag a less risky one a month or two out, that's your call.
Then just watch Stochastic's and Momentum bars for flips...
If you want super safe plays buy off a WEEKLY chart at extreme lows/highs 6-9 months out.
GL!! Let us know how/what you do Posted by SherriT on :
I hope you are right about the Stochastic doing a dive...I'm ready to see one!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Here are the test results so far from the different month buys of PUTS.
.QQQPS QQQQ APR 45 Put 8 bought at $0.67 $536.00 now at 0.88 $704.00 or profit of $168.00
QQQQS QQQQ MAY 45 Put 5 bought at $1.06 $530.00 now at 1.23 $615.00 or profit of $85.00
.QQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put 4 bought $1.34 $536.00 now at 1.48 $592.00 or profit of $56.00
.QQQUS QQQQ SEP 45 Put 3 bought $1.93 $579.00 now at 2.08 $624.00 or profit of $45.00
Notice the more risky ones pay better ~ [CHIT!!] LMAO
Later Board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
The full stochastic is pretty much the bomb when it comes to the QQQQs...
Note about your risky plays...if you look at the profit per contract, your profit amount was .20 give or take....the reason the risky ones were more profitable is because you could buy more with the same amount of capital. If you have more capital to play with, you can take less risk and get the same $ profit (but not %)
Posted by SherriT on :
Anyone think we can get to those BEEEAAAAUUUUUUUUUTIFUL 43s today?
Posted by Chart walker on :
Holy snike-ies! lol ~
.QQQPS QQQQ APR 45 Put 8 $0.67 $536.00 0.99 $792.00
Almost a 50% profit in a day on that Risky PUT! $256.00 in the green now off $536.00
$43.98 next support level! Posted by SherriT on :
Very risky PUT....even though the profit was there, I think I would have had to stick with May or later....only two days til expiration on April.
Posted by milliam on :
There's actually another week until April expiration, but it is close. I couldn't bring myself to buy the April 44 Put, but its up 71% for the day. The May 44 I bought is only up 31%.
Posted by Chart walker on :
Once we make some coin we HAVE TO slam some "Riskies" every now and then!
Come on gang! LMAO ~~
SherriT remember when we bagged bottoms with pennies? We can do that here it seems to!
Optionsxpress charts let you chart options as well!
type in .qqqps
I'm lov'n options!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by SherriT on :
Yep, Chart, I sure do...except I was so new then that I didn't quite understand what you guys were talking about... But now, AFTER I get a good trading base, I would be willing to try a more risky plan now and then...
Risk has eaten my tail this week, so I am gunshy Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
great topic enjoying everyones views now that the q's have made those buying puts money following the same charts as before at the bottom of the stochastics below 20 we ride calls back up is that right
Posted by Jenna on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: You can run but you can't hide from Stochastic!
BooYaah!!
Remember the gap to be filled: up Apr-03-2007 43.76 to 43.79
4/9/2007 Buy To Open 3 .QQQUS QQQQ SEP 45 Put $1.930 $14.95 ($593.95) 4/9/2007 Buy To Open 4 .QQQRS QQQQ JUN 45 Put $1.340 $14.95 ($550.95) 4/9/2007 Buy To Open 5 .QQQQS QQQQ MAY 45 Put $1.060 $14.95 ($544.95) 4/9/2007 Buy To Open 8 .QQQPS QQQQ APR 45 Put $0.670 $14.95 ($550.95)
Momentum bars are shrinking, -another good sign, people are dumping (Accum/Dist indicator) -another good sign, but I noticed the CMoney flow grew.... "?" [-not shown in this chart]
One in every crowd huh!! LOL ~
I mention the positive CMoney Flow so we can note how everything plays out...
jcluvsu2!! Hey I like that screen name! Welcome!!!
Hope we see some $43 action today!
GL Board! Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
"Optionsmart" (a PAID service) sent me this pimping email, some guy was happy about making 6.5% in 9 days! LOL ~ [sounds like a BAIL OUT to me, not something to brag about IMO ~] Our top pick here at Allstocks was at 50% yesterday. --2 days! And we're gapping down today! WAAAHOOO!!! -------------------------- QQQQ OUTLOOK
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Testimonials
"You are doing a great job, smart traders like you are the reason I quit trading the stock market." We have made 6.5% Gain in 9 Days! -------------------------------- Hmmmm,.... I wonder if I should start a..... naaa ~ Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: "Optionsmart" (a PAID service) sent me this pimping email, some guy was happy about making 6.5% in 9 days! LOL ~ [sounds like a BAIL OUT to me, not something to brag about IMO ~] Our top pick here at Allstocks was at 50% yesterday. --2 days! And we're gapping down today! WAAAHOOO!!! -------------------------- QQQQ OUTLOOK
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Testimonials
"You are doing a great job, smart traders like you are the reason I quit trading the stock market." We have made 6.5% Gain in 9 Days! -------------------------------- Hmmmm,.... I wonder if I should start a..... naaa ~
You're a smart guy Chart! Your years of studying is paying off for you (I hope)! Well done! Just play everything in life as wisely. GLTY
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by jcluvsu2: great topic enjoying everyones views now that the q's have made those buying puts money following the same charts as before at the bottom of the stochastics below 20 we ride calls back up is that right
Yes, the idea is when the Stochastic bottoms out, you would buy calls....
Welcome aboard!
Posted by SherriT on :
I'm liking the Qs - liked em better below 44, but I'll take the trading so far...I know where it's going next Posted by Chart walker on :
Did everyone remember the "Gap" strategy?
Right on the money again ~ (90+% of the time they close the same day). FYI ~
Posted by milliam on :
Check out those risky plays now. They are really taking a hit. Shows how risky they are and how you don't want to stay in them too long.
The April 44 put is down 22% while the May 44 put is only down 8%.
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Check out those risky plays now. They are really taking a hit. Shows how risky they are and how you don't want to stay in them too long.
The April 44 put is down 22% while the May 44 put is only down 8%.
Yep, if playing those I would use 1 minute intraday charts for sure. I would feel safe doing that with the "risky" (this month) trades.
So, we learned that a nice gap down with a growing CMoney Flow will slam a gap shut didn't we! Sweet! Remember I pointed the CMoney Flow thing out this morning, and here we are!
And with those prices tanking on the "riskies" all I can think about is BARGAIN PRICES!
This is what I mean... Intraday chart them, when they are way oversold on a 5 minute chart and turning south on a 1 minute chart BUY THEM. A couple minutes and a couple cents down and you have a quick nice intraday trade with options IMO.
A chart an indicator nut can clean up, or down! LOL ~ Price "movement" is all you need. Think about that....
Posted by new2stocks on :
You are welcome for the compliment Chart.... Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: You are welcome for the compliment Chart....
Thanks,... Sorry New2 ~
Just over busy today, I see in looking back I missed jcluvsu2 question about Stochastic, but SherriT nailed it
I'm human, sorry peeps! Posted by SherriT on :
Chart? When you have a minute - look at CROX for me - the Stochastic is pegged on the daily...on one hand, I would expect to start going lower, but we are also heading into summer and Crocs season....curious what you thought...
Posted by Chart walker on :
CROX comment coming tomorrow SherriT
Earning reports came out, rallied the cubes. POS. ha ~ Haven't said that since trading pennies!
Really miss pennies... NOT! Dilution, SEC shutting you down, scams, pump and dumps, stock manipulation, shady CEO's, BS PR's... I could go on and on...
Love my cubes! Biggest "problem" we come across are news reports of earnings or the FED. Basic everyday stuff. That I can deal with... Later Board
Posted by new2stocks on :
Is anyone having ussues with optionsxpress java charts today? Or is it just me? Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: Chart? When you have a minute - look at CROX for me - the Stochastic is pegged on the daily...on one hand, I would expect to start going lower, but we are also heading into summer and Crocs season....curious what you thought...
Here I see a nice little stock, in the weekly chart you should be able to draw a support trendline at the lows, this would be an excellent way to "stay safe" in a long haul, make sure it doesn't breach that support line. Weekly chart shows start of an possible uptrend also.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CROX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40908185873 In the details we see people accumulating again after the run, RSI has been doing a pretty good job of keeping an eye on telling when it's time to see, -the 70 line, which is right about where we are at.
So all in all it looks healthy, weekly is coming around to an uptrend, butthe daily seems to be telling of a pullback soon coming (RSI high).
Also, when tracking a stock a Aroon Oscillator indicator helps to show "where" a stock is in it's cycle. Note that as soon as the Aroon cross up over the ZERO line it's a good time to buy in, and when it fall below the 50 line you better bail, -or buy a put! LOL ~
Is that what you wanted SherriT? ~
Later Board! Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: Chart? When you have a minute - look at CROX for me - the Stochastic is pegged on the daily...on one hand, I would expect to start going lower, but we are also heading into summer and Crocs season....curious what you thought...
Here I see a nice little stock, in the weekly chart you should be able to draw a support trendline at the lows, this would be an excellent way to "stay safe" in a long haul, make sure it doesn't breach that support line. Weekly chart shows start of an possible uptrend also.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CROX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40908185873 In the details we see people accumulating again after the run, RSI has been doing a pretty good job of keeping an eye on telling when it's time to see, -the 70 line, which is right about where we are at.
So all in all it looks healthy, weekly is coming around to an uptrend, butthe daily seems to be telling of a pullback soon coming (RSI high).
Also, when tracking a stock a Aroon Oscillator indicator helps to show "where" a stock is in it's cycle. Note that as soon as the Aroon cross up over the ZERO line it's a good time to buy in, and when it fall below the 50 line you better bail, -or buy a put! LOL ~ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CROX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49034063017
Is that what you wanted SherriT? ~
Later Board! Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
opps, went to edit to put the chart in with the Aroon indicator, but double posted, my bad Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: Chart? When you have a minute - look at CROX for me - the Stochastic is pegged on the daily...on one hand, I would expect to start going lower, but we are also heading into summer and Crocs season....curious what you thought...
Here I see a nice little stock, in the weekly chart you should be able to draw a support trendline at the lows, this would be an excellent way to "stay safe" in a long haul, make sure it doesn't breach that support line. Weekly chart shows start of an possible uptrend also.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CROX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40908185873 In the details we see people accumulating again after the run, RSI has been doing a pretty good job of keeping an eye on telling when it's time to see, -the 70 line, which is right about where we are at.
So all in all it looks healthy, weekly is coming around to an uptrend, butthe daily seems to be telling of a pullback soon coming (RSI high).
Also, when tracking a stock a Aroon Oscillator indicator helps to show "where" a stock is in it's cycle. Note that as soon as the Aroon cross up over the ZERO line it's a good time to buy in, and when it fall below the 50 line you better bail, -or buy a put! LOL ~
Is that what you wanted SherriT? ~
Later Board! Chart ~
Yep - I could read the basics of the chart (haven't ever used the Aroon, so thanks!), and thought I saw a possible pullback coming, but with summer approaching, wasn't sure how news and sales could affect that...
After the cubes rallied on news yesterday, that was part of what prompted the question....
Hope they keep dropping!
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Is anyone having ussues with optionsxpress java charts today? Or is it just me?
No problems here....
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks: Is anyone having ussues with optionsxpress java charts today? Or is it just me?
Guess it's just me...thanks
rebooted computer...works fine now! Posted by SherriT on :
Good deal...wanted to answer, but I flat didn't know Posted by SherriT on :
Gees, the cubes are killing me - DROP ALREADY!
Posted by milliam on :
Yeah, looks like the RSI and stoch are continuing up. Those puts are falling fast.
Posted by SherriT on :
I've been spoiled with pennys and such...not cut out for the long term plays I don't think. I see way too much more money to be made. Once I can get back out with my profits, it will be time to flip....
Next week should be better. CMoney Flow going negative, low volume, momentum bars are not growing, but flat and the market seems to be running off the news, -which means it isn't strong.
$44.75 was the last highest run up point, so I hope we stay below that level.
It's the red line that you don't want to bet against, look how it flows smoothly up and down, and it is pointing down, and we didn't cross the $44.75 level, all checks still in place
See you all next week!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Thanks Chart - looking forward to it! There is TONS to be made off the cubes Posted by SherriT on :
CRAP! Enough said....
Posted by SherriT on :
Actually no, not enough said....
Stochastic is really overbought, so we should be in for a correction soon, however, we passed that 44.75 mark...what say you Chart?
Posted by Chart walker on :
Stocks Jump on Merger News, Retail Data Posted 4/16/2007
Stocks opened on the fly Monday, boosted by solid retail data and an announcement of the $25 billion sale of student lender Sallie Mae.
I think "news" once again is doing a number on us...
I'm beginning to hate news - LOL - although, PRIME buying opp....
Hopefully the run up will be followed by a good correction.
Posted by Chart walker on :
Always are SherriT Posted by SherriT on :
Ok, so I meant a REALLY GOOD correction this time - Posted by SherriT on :
Back to the single Q....Qwest....Cramer named it as one of his three stocks to reach $12 the fastest. It's at $9 now....(but options are cheap )
Posted by Chart walker on :
Notice the Aroon indicator and how it seems to be saying that a market correction is still coming... Rounding off downward.
Stochastic has crossed positive and will enter into over sold over the next week or two, possible then we will see the correction, or Aroon will bend up signaling a upward movement, but I don't think so.
Again in this chart with the Ultimate Oscillator (which when HOT tells us to buy PUTS) is heading right for "hot" territory, while Aroon is looking downward. This is a WEEKLY chart, so here too Ult. should be "hot" in a week or two, as well as Stochastic being then in overbought (high/hot).
The daily chart will bounce around, we are towards "hot" on the indicators, and PPO (MACD)has climbed this high before on it's indicator and has been knocked down 2 other times, so everything still seems to be saying that there is some sort of correction coming yet... IMO
Remember the super safe "extreme" plays are taken from the WEEKLY charts. When flipping off daily charts we need to stay away from the "middle" plays IMO.
WAIT for an extreme oversold/overbought condition, then buy to play it as safe as you can.
One thing I also noticed is that Stochastic likes to "snake" around the top or overbought area more then the bottom oversold area. -In other words it's safer to buy a Call when Stochastic crosses over in the Oversold area then the overbought (top) area, cause the top area likes to head fake.
Yet still sticking to buying 6-9 month options you would have been safe to ride them out and re-buy puts at the new highs, like what we are seeing now take place...
Whew ~ Gotta let my fingers rest!! LOL ~
Have a great day Board!
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
I hope it is the next week instead of the "or two"...
Back on the subject of taxes in honor of "doomsday"...do I remember correctly that you can avoid the higher tax on the index options, even if you only hold for one day? What about less than a day?
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT: I hope it is the next week instead of the "or two"...
Back on the subject of taxes in honor of "doomsday"...do I remember correctly that you can avoid the higher tax on the index options, even if you only hold for one day? What about less than a day?
At Optionxpress open up the "Chat Live" window and ask them, they'll tell you what you want to know Posted by Chart walker on :
Schaeffer's Options Report
Sentiment: Investors have high hopes when it comes to large-cap technology issues. The Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQQ 44.65) continues to see significantly less put activity than the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM), whose SOIR comes in well above 2.0. In addition, many of its major components such as Dell have SOIRs in the lower half of their annual readings despite the fact that they are showing signs of technical weakness.
Outlook: From a technical perspective, the trust has rallied back into technical resistance at the 45 level. This region has capped the shares on a number of occasions during the past several months. Furthermore, the 45 strike is the site of heavy call open interest in the April series, with roughly 265,000 contracts in residence. This accumulation of bullish bets could potentially add another layer of overhead resistance to the 45 level. In addition, a number of large-cap tech stocks such as IBM, Intel, and Google have rallied into staunch resistance at their 80-month moving averages just ahead of their upcoming earnings reports. A weak earnings report from these companies matched with technical resistance could potentially result in a sharp decline for the securities.
Posted by SherriT on :
Let's hope for that sharp decline....thanks for the post, Chart...
Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
what i'm buying hog aug 67.5 calls i got them today at 1.45 they finished * 1.40 i bought 3 calls they have earning tomorrow and ytd for the same q they didn't make as much as they did last yr .73 compared to .86 same q last yr but with high gas prices and a lot of us baby boomers want one summer is coming i think by july they should be * 70. chart check them they're at the bottom of all the indictators i hope no where to go but up glta
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by jcluvsu2: what i'm buying hog aug 67.5 calls i got them today at 1.45 they finished * 1.40 i bought 3 calls they have earning tomorrow and ytd for the same q they didn't make as much as they did last yr .73 compared to .86 same q last yr but with high gas prices and a lot of us baby boomers want one summer is coming i think by july they should be * 70. chart check them they're at the bottom of all the indictators i hope no where to go but up glta
that second WEEKLY chart says you are at the beginning of an uptrend! And by looking at the angle of the crossover it looks good! Think you'll have a winner there my friend
QQQQ See we had a gap play this morning that closed I'm on vacation tomorrow so see you all next week!
Did anyone notice the name change?.... QQQ Power Shares.... ???
---------------------------------- "QQQQ" CUSIP and Name Change Thursday, April 12, 2007 PowerShares Capital Management LLC announced that Thursday morning, April 12, 2007 the "QQQQ" (NASDAQ: QQQQ) will begin using a new CUSIP Number as part of its sponsorship transition.
New Name: PowerShares QQQ(TM) New CUSIP Number: 73935A 104
The new CUSIP will become effective on Thursday, April 12, 2007 concurrently with the expiration of the old CUSIP. The new name is PowerShares QQQ(TM). As previously announced on March 21, 2007 PowerShares became the sponsor of the NASDAQ-100 Trust, which tracks the NASDAQ-100 Index®. The PowerShares QQQ has over 1 million shareholders and approximately $17 billion in assets.
"We are very proud to have the PowerShares QQQ as part of our industry-leading ETF family," said Bruce Bond, President of PowerShares Capital Management. "As the most actively traded listed equity security in the World, the PowerShares QQQ is consistent with our commitment to seek to provide the most compelling investment tools available in the financial marketplace today."
PowerShares Capital Management LLC is passionate about its goal of efficiently delivering the highest quality institutional investment management services available. PowerShares is Leading the Intelligent ETF Revolution® providing investment advisors with institutional caliber asset management that seeks to replicate enhanced indexes in one of the more benefit rich investment vehicles available in the marketplace today, the exchange-traded fund. The firm is committed to theoretically sound portfolio construction and empirically verifiable investment management approaches. PowerShares' asset management philosophy and investment discipline are deeply rooted in the application of intuitive factor analysis and model implementation to enhance investment decisions. Additional information is available at www.powershares.com.
----------------------------------- Peace out!!
Have a great weekend board! Chart ~
Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
one day at a time i got till aug 3*1.45= 435 +comm today 3*1.85 = 555 1 day approx gain 120. 27%
just lucky glta
Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
hey chart thanks for the charts you're right they do look good might ride this harley for awhile
Posted by milliam on :
Looking like a gap up this morning. I guess we'll see if it closes like usual.
The daily chart on the Q's is showing a pretty good uptrend so far. The weekly chart looks like its still heading upward, the stoch is getting into the over bought region.
Posted by SherriT on :
Maybe the stoch will get into the over bought region a bit faster... ...what a crappy week!
Posted by milliam on :
Yeah, I'm doing what I've done in the past...not sticking to my stop sells and its killing me. I should have been out of both of my puts a long time ago. The chart still hints at a move down, but the Q's seem to be pretty strong.
Posted by SherriT on :
All of mine are June, so I still have some time. I feel like I will get my money out, and likely some profit, but I don't like having this money tied up for so long.
I have never used stops, just because of the way MMs will dip it sometimes. I could have been out a while back with a decent profit, but I was holding thinking it would really head downward. As usual, I hold until the run is over, I look around, and the only one left is me I have GOT to trade faster....
Posted by JLo on :
Expiration Friday! Month Tally:
DOW (chemicals) - Win CAL win AMR draw PFE win YHOO big loss! KBH draw CIEN win
Got sucked in by YAHOO. Should have known better and not trade out of fear. Got out of YAHOO somewhat gracefully without incurring bigger loss.
Came back big on PFE wins.
Lesson: you have to keep going and not let one bad trade ruin your game. How do you keep going ? Diversify, build several option threads, so if one goes down, you still got game. ~Saleh
Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
wow day 2 hog 67.50 calls 3 * 1.45 = 435 + comm (9.99+.75per contract=12.24 total cost 447.24 day 1 calls= 1.85 day 2 calls= 2.35 in those 2 days harley davidson stock went up 1.96 1st day and 1.60 the second day that explains why the options ran , sometimes you just happen to be at the right place at the right time, don't play your options with short time especially the q's give yourself enough time to take advantage of uptakes like now and corrections that happen when a stock runs too fast, get at least a 3-4 month time value if you short time be prepared to lose your investment (voice of experiance) glta
Posted by JLo on :
One problem for longer term ops is it ties up your margin$ for unspecified period. My ops are mostly month-to-month, unless it was a overhang from previous month. Some were even made on last day, or last 2 days. It has been quite good. That's just me - adapt it according to your experience and how you think.
Posted by SherriT on :
So what are we thinking about the QQQQs....I have to admit I am disappointed. Lowest I have seen these things, but I am still hanging on for a good dip.
Posted by milliam on :
The daily chart still looks topped out (on the full stoch), but it could easily hang there for awhile. The chart still looks like a decent uptrend, but it looks like we're right up at a resistance level from late Feb's top.
Hopefully will dip down here soon.
Posted by Chart walker on :
Hey Board ~
Looks like some peeps are making money Ride that Hog! LOL ~
I'm waiting to place my next bet myself, I keep coming back to those extreme buys on a weekly chart, they are easy, not "fast" yet fast enough and pay off big. I'll be snagging another PUT on the cubes as soon as we go Stochastic negative again, looks like one more week IMO ~ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40932912163
Still have a Put to close out, around June/July the Stochastic popped out of oversold 3 times before going up, all those CALLS paid off so my June $43 PUT should pop to ~ All where bought in that extreme areas of Stochastic on the weekly charts.
Jlo, I like those daily flippers with daily and intraday charts but my lifestyle just won't let me watch a computer that close. But some day!
QQQQ daily: Stochastic RED line seems to be pointing down finally and the Money Flow index is "hot" -and it does NOT like to be hot... So everything still topping off and looking downward IMO ~
I think it's safe to say we should see our top sometime this week with the cubes finally...
Later Board! Chart ~
Posted by Chart walker on :
From above: QQQQ daily: Stochastic RED line seems to be pointing down finally and the Money Flow index is "hot" -and it does NOT like to be hot... So everything still topping off and looking downward IMO ~
(BTW, not meaning to sound pessimistic on the board - just aggravated mostly with BHUB and I feel like most of my money is just plain tied up - LOL)
Posted by milliam on :
Had another gap up this morning and it has now closed. Chart seems to be right on with those plays.
I hope we're finally on the way down from this darn high point!
Posted by SherriT on :
You and me both....
Posted by milliam on :
Another gap up this morning and once again, it closed. I guess we need to figure out what options to buy to play these.
Now get down QQQQ!!!
Posted by SherriT on :
Short term stuff....once I get my big stock plays done right now (i.e. the ones I have to watch like a hawk), I am going to take a couple of days and strictly watch the streaming options. Will let you know what I see.
Posted by drysider on :
The RSI is just getting into the green, which is a pretty good indicator that the QQQ is approaching over bought. When do you buy the Calls?
drysider
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by drysider: The RSI is just getting into the green, which is a pretty good indicator that the QQQ is approaching over bought. When do you buy the Calls?
drysider
Liberty Lake - haven't seen that name in a while
Basically you buy the calls at the opposite end of the spectrum...when the Stochastic/RSI/etc are on the bottom.
Posted by SherriT on :
Good GRIEF - is there a CEILING on this? Posted by milliam on :
I'm about done with my puts. I can't believe how much they have dropped. Oh well...at least its almost really time to buy puts .
Posted by SherriT on :
LOL - look at it this way, they have almost nowhere to go but up....we have two months to go too....no way in Hades I am selling now - should do fine, we just might have to suck it up a couple more days until it REALLY tops out. I tell you, I almost want to buy more - average down and make a killing....too many things are against it continuing to go up, but that is all strictly IMHO.
Posted by milliam on :
Looks like another gap up this morning. I'll be watching some near term in the money puts to see how they do when the gap closes.
Come on top!!! Man this is killing me. Oh well...don't forget, options are risky and not for everyone.
Posted by SherriT on :
I truly think we are going to be fine....I just don't see this continuing to go up in the current economic climate combined with that redlined chart...
Posted by SherriT on :
How did those near term ones look? The chart still isn't quite topping out, but at least the RSI is getting super hot on the daily. We have to be close...
Posted by milliam on :
Well, the gap didn't quite close, but I think it got close enough.
The option I checked on was the QQQQ May 47 Put. It closed the day before at $1.00 and opened down to around $.90 yesterday morning. It dropped a little bit lower, but I used $.90 as my buy in. When the gap closed, the option was back up to $1.00, so it would have been a 10% gain or so I guess.
Posted by SherriT on :
Not bad....not bad at all. 10% of 2K is $200 (as if you didn't know). I'll take that on a trade any day - especially if you do that 5 times a week....
Gapped down for a change....maybe that is good sign??? Posted by milliam on :
Yeah, I didn't watch it closely, but I think it closed this morning's gap down as well, but thankfully it hasn't held and now it moves lower. It just needs to pick up some speed for me .
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Yeah, I didn't watch it closely, but I think it closed this morning's gap down as well, but thankfully it hasn't held and now it moves lower. It just needs to pick up some speed for me .
It closed the gap....or close enough if it didn't...I'm with you on the speed thing. If I can get to at least even, if not profitable, I want to pull out of the ones I have and start flipping....
Posted by drysider on :
I think I knew that....
Do you continue to buy the puts if the market goes up?...sort of cost averaging.
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by drysider: I think I knew that....
Do you continue to buy the puts if the market goes up?...sort of cost averaging.
Depends....a) how many funds you have available that you want to invest, and b) how sure you are that it will do what you originally expected.
If I personally had funds to throw in right now, I would....but that is just me.
Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
hey board hog had a high this week of 3. closed one day *2.90 but finished the week * 2.3., I was looking at earnings for this week and this interested me, cvc current 32.65, 52wk high 33.00, earnings to be released on thurs. = -.08 30. put for 6/07 = .30, don't put money on this but lets watch what earnings do for the put. the charts show an uptrend but earnings can change that, the stochastic is above 80 so this one should be headed down
Posted by Chart walker on :
Good Morning Board
"Happy Birthday New2"
Posted by SherriT on :
HAPPY BIRTHDAY NEW2!!!
Posted by SherriT on :
Hi Chart - hope you had a terrific vacation! What do you think about our friend the cubes that just wants to stay high?
Posted by Chart walker on :
No doubt it will retest the 45.50 area SherriT, either bust through of make it support.
WEEKLY chart is right on the money, hit 20 on the Stochastic then raced for the 80 overbought line, at the end of the week I'll see where the Stochastic is at, and in the daily the candles sure look like a top has formed.
I went back and did tests on 10 min, 15 min and 60 min charts... Always looking for the "perfect flip." A stock can be "oversold" in a 1 minute chart but not in the ten minute.... hmmmm..... OVERSOLD carries more weight the longer the time frame. It's a true-er oversold on a weekly chart then a daily chart, and true-er on a 60 minute then a 5 min chart, -get it?...
I've talked about penny stocks and timing the weekly MACD crossovers WITH the daily MACD crossovers to give you an added PUNCH. Well I took that idea a step further with comparing the minute charts....
-It Works!
Easiest/laziest way is still going off the weekly chart, but thats slow, but sometimes that's ok
I'll write more later peeps! And I'll be showing off a NEW indicator I made to!!! -at least to those of you who have accounts at Optionsxpress or have the power to superimpose indicators....
Chart ~
Posted by milliam on :
It does look like we might finally have a top here. I might have to jump in some more puts just to try and average out my losses. That weekly chart is looking quite good, so I'll be looking at at least 3 month out contracts.
Looking forward to another indicator Chart!
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: Good Morning Board
"Happy Birthday New2"
Thanks guys! Chart, thanks for not telling my age! lmao
Posted by Chart walker on :
Hey BX!
So tell us about yourself ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Work available...not sure if that sounds good or bad Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks:
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: Good Morning Board
"Happy Birthday New2"
Thanks guys! Chart, thanks for not telling my age! lmao
No problem new2, you being 42 is no ones business! Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks:
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: Good Morning Board
"Happy Birthday New2"
Thanks guys! Chart, thanks for not telling my age! lmao
No problem new2, you being 42 is no ones business!
Cold, Chart, very cold
I guess everyone is in a better mood since the QQQQs are finally behaving a little bit...
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker:
quote:Originally posted by new2stocks:
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: Good Morning Board
"Happy Birthday New2"
Thanks guys! Chart, thanks for not telling my age! lmao
No problem new2, you being 42 is no ones business!
LMAO!!! Posted by Chart walker on :
--oh come on now New2 isn't 42! lol ~
(I'm working on that post with the indicator and why it ROCKS! IMO)
brb...
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: --oh come on now New2 isn't 42! lol ~
(I'm working on that post with the indicator and why it ROCKS! IMO)
brb...
I "new" that too Not a day over 20!
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT:
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: --oh come on now New2 isn't 42! lol ~
(I'm working on that post with the indicator and why it ROCKS! IMO)
brb...
I "new" that too Not a day over 20!
Posted by Chart walker on :
20!!! Talk about a "BS" meter going off!!... LOL ~
Well, the post that I've been working on ALL DAY was just wiped out when my computer froze... 3 very detailed pages... sigh ~~~~~~
[#*&*$%!!!]
You're gonna LOVE IT! I'll try again tomorrow, sorry board. To ticked to type and lunch break is over Posted by cassity on :
What's everyones thoughts on buying a $60 put option on AMZN?
Posted by jcluvsu2 on :
hey board just was looking a some news i was saying that negative earning might effect cvc but the news out is that a company is buying them out and going private so the after mkt price is up over 3. to 36.,so those 30 dollar puts that were going for 30 cents won't be any good
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by cassity: What's everyones thoughts on buying a $60 put option on AMZN?
Honestly, I am unsure....thought the QQQQs would have been dipping good by now, and they are riding high...
The chart on AMZN looks way overbought on both the daily and the weekly to me, but they also had a huge boost with that recent news that added 25% to their value. Probably depends on the timeframe and what you really believe about the company...
I am curious to hear Chart's opinion on this one Posted by SherriT on :
Daily I like better...GO DOWN! LOL
Posted by SherriT on :
Q options looking good - price is up from usual average around $9 and is just under 9.50 today....hope it will keep on going!
Posted by SherriT on :
We just don't talk any more, do we? Posted by Chart walker on :
Yes we do SherriT!!!
SuperMAC is here!!!!!! LOL ~
That's what I nicknamed this indicator I made. The perfect marriage! Full Stochastic superimposed over a MACD Histogram (-NOT a regular MACD, a "Histogram")
I think we all know how importance of the Stochastic indicator and how it measures the OVERBOUGHT-ness of a stock or the OVERSOLD-ness of it. The classical "Buy Low Sell High" indicator! Combine that with the HISTOGRAM MACD which allows you to SEE the trend changes and momentum and you have a SuperMAC!
SO WE ARE ON THE SAME PAGE, -view links, info about these two indicators, for newbies too.
About Stochastic: http://clearstation.etrade.com/education/oscillating.shtml Oscillators determine the short-term movement of a stock. They identify turning points when you may want to buy or sell a stock. Using an oscillator can be tricky. There are a number of caveats to heed. But once you understand them, the trading world opens wide before you. In this section, you'll learn: What stochastic is and how to read its signals -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------- Info on MACD and Histogram MACD http://clearstation.etrade.com/education/trending.shtml -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------
Java charts. Now, in your optionsxpress accounts select Full Stochastic, then MACD Histogram (which is just bars). Then click the "super impose" button on the bottom to make the two indicators one yielding one "SuperMAC." -I'm getting hungry just talking about it!! LOL ~
Now let's see how she works!
Pull up a 5 year WEEKLY (java) chart on the cubes (QQQQ) with only SuperMAC. Look how this baby BAGS BOTTOMS!!!! How can even Forest GUMP not make money now?!!!!
The cubes are an interesting animal, the more you study historic charts you see that sell offs don't last long, however BULL runs can last long. In other words when Stochastic is OVERSOLD and at the bottom of the indicator it's a almost perfect bet that it's going up, AND SOON!!! But when the Stochastic is in the OVERBOUGHT section, it may slightly bounce up and down for some time, making a PUT option MORE risky then CALLS. -Look at the charts, you'll really see it in the daily charts. Even our recent run proves this true.
So we know that it's safer to buy CALLS then PUTS according to the historic charts. On average the market does (over a 10 year period) average itself up about 6-9 percent depending on WHO you ask...
Just knowing that you could simply buy CALLS on a WEEKLY chart with a low OVERSOLD Stochastic far out (LEAP) and wait and win, theoretically... BUT,... You would be a fool to do that with a PUT IMO.
Full Stochastic has a "more powerful, meaningful" OVERSOLD indicator when used on a Weekly chart then a daily chart. The weekly chart AVERAGES in everything on a WEEKLY bases...-Understand?
Example, in a 1 minute chart Full Stochastic will go in and out of oversold and overbought levels all the time, BUT HOW DO YOU BAG THOSE ""TRUE"" BOTTOMS Chart walker?.. (selfless plug! LOL).
Simple, if using intraday 1 minute charts also have a 5 minute chart going, the 5 minute chart will AVERAGE out a BETTER oversold level. Want an even more powerful oversold stochastic buy in point? Simple use a 10 minute chart, better yet use a 15, 30 or 60 minute chart for a REAL oversold condition! Then use the quicker minute charts for a buy in point.
I used to do this with penny stocks live when CSHD was running, it would go up and I'd say this isn't our bottom yet, and no matter how the board cheered the stock on, it would fall more, almost like magic. All I was doing was watching the 5 minute and seeing it was just starting it's down turn, so ON AVERAGE I "knew" the price would fall yet... -get it?
Now let's multiply and COMPOUND what we know so we can melt the cubes!
1) We have learned that the SAFEST option to buy according to the historic charts is a CALL. 2) We learned how to fund a TRUE OVERSOLD level by backing out of the minutes charts and looking at the WEEKLY charts. Then go into 60 minute or 30 minute charts to buy in. 3) Make TIME your friend, buy out 6-9 month Calls. PLAY IT SAFE!!!
The old saying "Never go against the trend" holds true. -and you find the Trend in the Weekly chart. I still like using the gallery page at Stockcharts.com. That's almost always my first stop when checking out a "hot tip."
Pull up a 5 year WEEKLY (java) chart on the cubes (QQQQ) with only SuperMAC. Right there is your retirement, week by week. Ok, don't want to do just 2-3 trades a year and easily DOUBLE (or way more!) your money and want more faster action? Not a problem!
We can do a little quicker then that, but it gets more risky... That's why I say "Make" TIME and PATIENCE your friends by buying options out 6-9 months.
But if you like to PARTY... LET'S PARTY!!
Here are the Sacred steps Chart walker takes.
Step one. Start with a 3 year weekly java chart and a SuperMAC indicator, QQQQ. Well heck look at how beautiful and easy that is! Do I even have to point out the bottoms? LOL ~
Step 2 Wait for your bottom. -or for practice, let's pick the last bottom just before April when Stochastic hit the magic 20% OVERSOLD line.
Step 3 Go to a Daily 6 or 9 month chart and take SuperMAC with ya : ) Notice when we hit the magic 20% oversold level, which we know is REALLY OVERSOLD because of the Weekly chart.
Step 4 Clearly as March progresses the Histogram is showing momentum going to the positive up side, Stochastic crossing positive also. Time to start the grill!!! ha ha ~
Step 5 Pull up a 60 minute 60 day chart with your buddy SuperMAC. Step 4 showed us that toward the middle of MARCH we should be looking for a super oversold buy on a CALL option, and look at that! Heeeeeeere's your ""TRUE"" OVERSOLD bottom buy in point right at 3/15!!!! The bottom of the bottom peeps!!!
"Have I mentioned I LOVE MY INDICATORS and CHARTS lately?!!!" LMAO ~
Now keep FOCUSED. There are many bottoms and oversold levels which will WRECK YOU if it isn't a TRUE bottom and you're going long. Short term they most likely will go up, but you have to watch and flip them because some will be "stronger then others." Where most people screw up is following only a 1, 2 or 3 minute chart looking for Stochastic oversold levels to buy into and catch a "weak" oversold level and then say ignorantly that chart and indicators don't always work!
HA!!!
They work TOO WELL, and THEY just don't understand HOW to use them... I think I just proved that didn't I? And on the most popular traded ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) in the WORLD none the less!!
You are all very welcome for this PRICELESS info. Let us know how you do!!
Why do I ONLY have 4 stars by Chart walker?... -hint hint...
Later peeps! Go kick some (_!_) ha ha ~
Chart ~
Posted by SherriT on :
Nice notes Chart - did you mysteriously buy calls on the QQQQs and not tell us? GOOD GRIEF - at this rate, we will see 47!
Posted by Chart walker on :
SherriT, Good Morning
No CALLS bought, but the charts tell me those are the ones to play "statistically" speaking, they don't stay long in the oversold like the overbought section likes to do.
I started this thread to LEARN. There is alot of info here.
Knowledge is "potential" Power... -you have to USE IT.
In a very short time we have really got to know the cubes (QQQQ). That last post of mine walks you through not only how to buy on a dip, but to buy in on the "dip in the dip!"
There isn't much more to learn, yet there are always things to learn
Have a great day Board~
Chart ~
Posted by milliam on :
Thanks for the info Chart. I'll have to read over that a few times to get it though. Will you still be doing some plays, using this new stuff, here on the board? That would be awesome!
Sherri...great call on CROX. Did you get in on it?
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Thanks for the info Chart. I'll have to read over that a few times to get it though. Will you still be doing some plays, using this new stuff, here on the board? That would be awesome!
Sherri...great call on CROX. Did you get in on it?
Nope, but thanks....was just looking at the $70 price tag and wanted to cry I still think it will go even higher as the summer goes on...
Posted by Chart walker on :
Milliam ~
I'm working on a fully stocking my account right now and will be placing some plays here all going off of what I posted..
Look for me when the weekly Stochastic is oversold and I will be here
Later Board ~
Posted by milliam on :
It looks like the weekly chart is finally topping out here. I'm pretty leary of buying more puts on the Qs, but now looks like the time. I need to make some money back from all of the other puts I've been hanging onto for way too long.
I'm looking at the Sept. 45 puts.
Posted by drysider on :
The MACD is just getting to negative territory, and the stochastic is trying very hard to be oversold. The question, of course, is if this is really a downturn, or another 3 day "correction".
Posted by SherriT on :
And then there was news....
*#$%
I guess we have at least learned that the charts are predictable, but the news kills us...
Posted by drysider on :
I think that the negative vibes from hoping for a downturn work against buying puts....at least thats my story and I'm sticking to it. I'll wait to buy calls and root for the home team.
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by drysider: I think that the negative vibes from hoping for a downturn work against buying puts....at least thats my story and I'm sticking to it. I'll wait to buy calls and root for the home team.
Sounds like a good story to me - the puts are just comical at this point. The charts are ready for a downturn, but the index is not.
Posted by Mantux on :
I have a question that may be too general or simple to answer but here goes. What makes an option move? What are the fundamental, underlying factors that usually make one move one way or the other? I've seen some options that when the stock price drop, the option doesn't move at all. Sometimes it move a lot down and then other times it has inched up. What gives?
Posted by SherriT on :
My best answer for you is two things - the time involved and the stock price. I have QQQQ June puts and Q Oct calls right now. The price of Q has gone up nearly $1 since I bought, but little to no price movement on my options. My QQQQ options on the other hand have deteriorated quickly because the price of the stock has moved slightly, but the time to expiration is coming sooner.
The rest I think is simply volume on the options and trading interest.
Anyone else care to take a stab?
Posted by milliam on :
Well, you've got your supply and demand as usual, and I'm sure there's some greek symbol that also shows why options move.
I'd say its all about time and in/out of the money (as Sherri said). An option that is just a little out of the money, but only has a few days can move huge if the underlying stock moves towards that option going into the money. So an option's worth can increase quickly due to time, but its got to be close or in the money too.
Usually, the more time, the slower the movement.
Do you still have those examples you were looking at?
Posted by SherriT on :
I'm not saying a word....but I am thinking it. Kind of like a "no-no" in baseball....you just don't talk about it but it is there.
Posted by milliam on :
I guess none of us are saying a word ...been pretty quiet around here.
Posted by drysider on :
The Sept. $46 puts are up nicely. Maybe the current is changing.
Posted by SherriT on :
The June 45 Puts are up about 20% too....
Posted by Mantux on :
I don't know about you guys but my June 43 puts are killing me. I hope we have a strong move soon to bring me atleast back close to even.
Posted by SherriT on :
My 42, 44, and 45 June Puts are killing me. Any move would be nice....in the right direction.
Posted by drysider on :
The June $47 calls seemed priced right...I'm trying a few.
Posted by SherriT on :
I'm just whistling while I work, and hoping to see 45s that stick....for at least a few days.
Posted by milliam on :
45s would be nice...42s, now that's what I'm looking for .
Posted by SherriT on :
Yeah, I would LOVE to see 42s, but I am barely holding my breath for the low 45s.....
Posted by drysider on :
It is drifting right now, but I have to say that 47 seems more likely than 45.
Posted by milliam on :
Here's an option I had on my screener (didn't own though ). Its a May AQNT 35 call. It was pretty much done-for until yesterday when the stock made a decent move up to put it back in the money. The option moved about 800% that day. The stock closed in the money at $35.87 and the option closed at .90 (up from .10).
Well, it looks like Microsoft is buying these guys for $60+ a share. The stock is going to open up in the $63's today. This is the last day for this option, but its going to open over $28 in the money!
Posted by SherriT on :
Holy Smoly....those are the ones we wish we owned...just like Amazon and Crox before their fins came out. I'm thinking we need to start a thread for weekly "what's coming" stuff so we can note the big stocks with news, etc. coming that week and review charts, etc.
Thoughts?
Posted by Linux2 on :
I'm not new here, but decided to eliminate all but one penny play and try my hand at options. The information I've read on this board has been nothing short of awesome so thanks to all.
I did find one option that might interest everyone here - ALGN. After reading the Motley boards and looking at the gallery view, I think a put might be in order here. JMO as I'm still learning how options work.
Best to all.
Posted by Linux2 on :
Good read for anyone interested in learning options trading:
Well, I got my re-awake up call for keeping to my stop-loss setups. My May Q puts expired worthless .
Posted by SherriT on :
I got a wake up call too...should have sold those June puts on Friday before yours expired....LOL
I guess we bought a lesson on these, but hey, I know exactly what to do next time, and my Q calls for October are looking nice now....
Posted by SherriT on :
Good grief Posted by drysider on :
Looks like I'll at least break even on the 47 June calls.
drysider
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by drysider: Looks like I'll at least break even on the 47 June calls.
drysider
Depending on when you sell, anyway....I had a profit once upon a time....
Posted by SherriT on :
Here ye Here ye - I have officially lost a chunk of change on the QQQQs. I'm giving up and salvaging what is barely left.
Learned a lot though, and my Q calls for October are looking very nice. Original predictions on CROX and AMD would have been very nice also....
I'm starting a new thread for picks and charts....will try to keep the chatter to this thread when we are bored, and that one for DD and straight info. Anyone else game?
Posted by milliam on :
Sounds fine to me. I too have lost a chunk, but I've got some Sept puts that I'm confident in.
Posted by drysider on :
The 47 July puts should be a good investment as long as the QQQQ is drifting sideways...even better if it drops a bit.
Posted by milliam on :
If the Q's keep drifting sideways, no option is a good investment. Options rely on the underlying stock to move. If the underlying stock doesn't move, you loose your time value and don't gain any intrinsic value.
Now, if you mean (and you probably do) that if the Q's keeping drifting sideways, they will at some time finally correct to the bottom side...then I agree totally.
Posted by SherriT on :
Naturally, I finally think they will keep going as they prove to have done the last few weeks. I sell at the complete bottom - would have had at least 50% more over yesterday had I waited one more day
Posted by SherriT on :
*#$% ARGH *#$%!
I think yours are going to do fine milliam!
Posted by drysider on :
The 47 July puts are up 37 cents so far. I am only into two contracts...still figuring things out.
Posted by milliam on :
Hard to bet against the weekly chart. There have been quite a few head fakes though, but I think it's got to go down!
Posted by SherriT on :
I kept thinking so too, but then it just kept going up....at what I sold them for, I really should have just held and let them expire if it didn't go back up.
Posted by milliam on :
That's a pretty tough decision there. That's why I have to keep my stop losses in the future. I don't want to be in the position of just holding a contract because its not worth anything to sell it.
Posted by SherriT on :
Yes - I never should have let them go so far either....just kept feeling that it was going to turn down. At least if it does, I can take comfort that I was right. Very nice plays though...if you bought yesterday toward the high, you would be up 200% right now.
Posted by SherriT on :
I'm just ill.....
Posted by milliam on :
Pretty dead in here. I guess nothing is going our way right now. Chart, you around?
The weekly on the Q's still looks good for a drop. Checking it out and watching how it usually goes, I guess I jumped the gun buying the puts when I did. I should have waited for the stoch to settle out in the upper section and maybe for the RSI to drop, but there's always a fine line with that.
I'm guessing my June puts are done for, but I still have faith in my Sept. puts.
Posted by SherriT on :
Yeah - I was watching for someone to post other than myself...was afraid I would start answering. The cubes definately did NOT go my way, but my other picks have done well....CROX, AMD, and now Q...made a good 50% or so there, and I am LOVING the 12.50 calls on that one for October. Been picking up 10% or so daily, and at .20 right now, affordable.
Posted by drysider on :
I have done OK with short term calls on the cubes. I am holding 49 June calls right now and they have doubled since yesterday. I don't plan on keeping them very long...
Posted by Linux2 on :
Sometimes you need a little luck - I could use a few more days like this:
5/31/2007 Sell To Close 50 .UKOFU DNDN JUN 7.5 Call $2.100 $75.00 $10,424.83
GLTA
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by Linux2: Sometimes you need a little luck - I could use a few more days like this:
5/31/2007 Sell To Close 50 .UKOFU DNDN JUN 7.5 Call $2.100 $75.00 $10,424.83
GLTA
Yeah, I think we all could use a few like that....out of curiousity, what did you originally purchase those for? You probably could have sold them back when it was in the 18s for a stack more too....
Posted by Linux2 on :
quote:Originally posted by SherriT:
quote:Originally posted by Linux2: Sometimes you need a little luck - I could use a few more days like this:
5/31/2007 Sell To Close 50 .UKOFU DNDN JUN 7.5 Call $2.100 $75.00 $10,424.83
GLTA
Yeah, I think we all could use a few like that....out of curiousity, what did you originally purchase those for? You probably could have sold them back when it was in the 18s for a stack more too....
Sherri, that would have really been nice had I played that. The June call was purchased on May 23 so I would have missed out on the huge run. I had some shares of DNDN that I sold during the run but wasn't playing options then...RATS!
GLTY
Posted by milliam on :
Hmmmm...could it be??? I guess I shouldn't say anything.
Good luck all .
Posted by SherriT on :
quote:Originally posted by milliam: Hmmmm...could it be??? I guess I shouldn't say anything.
Good luck all .
I noticed that and thought about you...seemed short lived unfortunately. Hoping we all have a good June though!
Posted by Chart walker on :
Gooooood Morning Board!!
Long story short.. Useing the "Super Macd" (I showed how to build that in a longer post a page or two back)...
Might be time for a CALL option. Remember we were watching and studing the movement of the QQQQ's and noticed that because over time the cubes will always go up (thx to IRA and 401k's) CALL options were the safest, they bounced better on selloffs and were more predictable then PUTS.
That said.
Pull up a 20 day 60 min chart and a "Super Macd" indicator. Notice it is negative and at about 30%, not yet 20% but getting there. Stochastic lines are now below the centerline, another good sign to start watching.
Now make it a 30 min chart, support right around the $46.50 area, bounced off of that twice now and forming 3 higher highs since last Friday. Stochastic not at 20% yet, so we didn't miss a buy in...
Now make it a 15 min. chart. Here we are well below the Stochastic 20% line, TIME TO WATCH! At the end of Monday going into Tuesday there was a "head fake" I'm fully expecting one here because the 30 min. chart's Stochastic level isn't at 20% yet. <--This helps weed out head fakes.
What to watch for IMO.
In a 10 day 10 min. chart you will see the Stochastic go positive first obviously over the longer time frames, this should be the head fake. Then watch the 15 min. chart and NOTE what happened Tuesday! Wait for the cross positive. In the 30 minute chart we should see the 20% hit with Stochastic. This is where the battle is!
The ONLY thing I can see that is a drawback in this set up is in the WEEKLY chart we have crossed negative, and the rule is "The trend is your friend." So this will be a SHORT TERM PLAY. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?QQQQ
So there you have the pro's and con's... If it wasn't for the weekly chart being negative this would be the perfect set up IMO.
Just watch things turn positive in the 10 minute chart into the 15 minute and when we see the 30 going positive and the 60 min at 20% stochastic, squeeze the trigger IMO ~
Good luck Board!
Chart ~
Posted by milliam on :
Dude, where ya been? I hope all is well with you and your family.
I'm still playing the weekly chart, but I bought my puts way too early. Looking back, it looks like the stock has continued to hold after the stoch has crossed at the top. The real signal of a drop has been the RSI falling. I thought we finally had that a few days ago, but it jumped back up. I'm still confident we'll get a drop on the Q's, but my play has become quite long term now and I'm losing time value.
Posted by Chart walker on :
Milliam
Yes been dealing with things in life but the sun always comes out tomorrow... thx for asking.
And yes everything is looking to pullback, what to watch is that old (about) $47.60 level high, it will test that and either bounce down or past it..
If it pushes past, get ready for a quick retest of that area on a pullback, if it does get past that area it may finally reset. The CMF indicator shows investors sitting on the fence. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?QQQQ
Hope some peeps made some green on this play
I'm still busy but will pop in from time to time when I see a good play
In case I'm not back...
"Happy Fathers day" to all you dad's out there. Rising and keeping a family together now-a-days is a hard job. Hat's off to you!
Peace/Health
Chart ~ Posted by milliam on :
Happy Father's day to you as well.
Posted by JLo on :
Is everyone taking the summer off ?
Posted by milliam on :
Pretty dead in here. I'm still watching my Q put dwindle. I'll probably get out this week if nothing big happens.
I really need to get on the ball and get some good options plays going, but I'm busy with too much other stuff.
Good luck to all!
Posted by SherriT on :
My Q put was doing well, but I should have sold already and took the 25% or so. I've started learning Forex....moves faster and makes good money....IF you can find a system.
Posted by milliam on :
I was hoping the Q's had finally topped out, but NOOOOOO....
Sherri, I've never looked at the Forex stuff, can you summarize what the deal is? Thanks.
Posted by bikram on :
Hey Guys,
I just wanted to say that I love this thread. I've been following it for a while and really like the analysis. I've used quite a bit in virtual trade and been fairly successful. I'm ready for the real deal now, so I'm looking forward to it, and one of the other reasons for finally registering to the forum.
Never done any forex stuff either - seems quite a bit more volatile, which I'm guessing is great for getting in and out of position quickly. I'm with optionsXpress but they don't seem to have that available - unless I'm not looking in the right place. forex meaning foreign exchange?
Have a great weekend! Regards, ~BC
Posted by JLo on :
Sherri,keep us posted on your adventure with FX.
My expiration day trades did well. Better than rest of the month. There is no gap up/down to worry about. Only problem is there is only 1 expiration day in a month.
Posted by milliam on :
JLo, can you explain your expiration day trades? I'm guessing that you are trading the options on the day they expire. What advantages are you seeing from this?
Thanks!
Posted by JLo on :
Short calls/puts on expiration fridays. They expire worthless when 4:05pm rolls around. Been doing that for > a yr. But you have to know the stocks and watch them like a hawk because its sometimes pennys from being in the money. You want it to finished out-of-money.
This play is not unlike futures, your positions are settled end-of-day and you are on the edge. I don't play futures because of the big lot size.
Posted by milliam on :
Ahh...I've never shorted any options, but I can see how you could make some good money shorting soon to expire contracts.
Thanks for the info!
Posted by JLo on :
Your welcome. You have to be comfortable with selling naked options and a big margin acct. Don't do it if you are not comfortable with it. I am still in the rebuilding phase so I am not out of the water yet.
Posted by SherriT on :
Hi all,
Sorry I haven't stopped in to say hello. Haven't touched an option since the Qs, although CROX was looking beautiful in the 40s again...should have pulled the trigger on that one.
Forex is some kind of beast. Everything you read make nearly no sense until you do some practice trading. Any reputable broker has a demo account system...worth checking out, particularly if you are a technical trader.
Good Luck All!
Posted by JLo on :
Who's your FX broker? Required $deposit ?
Posted by Jenna on :
What happened to everybody?
Posted by Jenna on :
Anybody seen Chart?
Posted by milliam on :
Yeah, its been pretty dead in here. I haven't seen Chart around...I hope all is well with him.
My Q put finally did what I thought it would do, but the Fed came in and propped the market up. It would have been nice to have played that, but you can't play shoulda's, woulda's, or coulda's.
I think the Fed attempts might still fall short, so I still hold my put, but I'll be looking to get out soon because its a Sept. expiration.
Posted by JLo on :
Mill, Sept Fed meeting may drop the "important" fed fund rate if credit still too tight. There's possibility of that. It might just pump the mkt in a bad time before your puts expire.
Of course I canbe wrong.
Posted by milliam on :
I plan on being out of them before then, but who knows. At some point, I half expect the market to panic when the FED lowers rates. I think its all just how the media and the marketeers spin it these days, but I remember a couple of years back when the market actually looked at a rate cut as a bad thing.
Posted by Chart walker on :
BOOYAAH peeps!!
Charts in da house!!
"Locked, cocked and ready to ROCK!!!" Coming off a nice play on SGP, CALL option .sgpkg
Been tweaking my options, heck options are easier then pennies I think! Pull up an option chart and look! Prophetcharts will work ~
Any quick questions? maybe I can help ~
I'll try to pop around more, but was busy with moving/selling a house
Later Peeps! Chart ~
Posted by new2stocks on :
quote:Originally posted by Chart walker: BOOYAAH peeps!!
Charts in da house!!
"Locked, cocked and ready to ROCK!!!"
Chart ~
Posted by Jenna on :
Chart,
I'm going to be ready to ROCK with options soon...
Been doing awesome Swinging the Big Boards!!
Time to Expand....
Posted by Chart walker on :
quote:Originally posted by Jenna: Chart,
I'm going to be ready to ROCK with options soon...
Been doing awesome Swinging the Big Boards!!
Time to Expand....
Yep the big board options are just like the pennies,... without the BS!!
GL to ya!!
Posted by theinc on :
Hey Chart, what do you recommend buying right now?
Or maybe you can tell us what are you buying right now?
Posted by bilgert on :
Picked up some June options (expires in 8 days) for YHOO for .28 ($25)- it's better than Vegas baby!
Posted by bilgert on :
.38/.39 weeeeeeee!
Posted by bilgert on :
CC- picked up some August calls, $5 strike for .20
Posted by Rockster on :
any options peeps out there.
Posted by Rockster on :
For example here ya go. XLF is financial sector. You can buy a put and call on this index and you can make some good money if it moves a LOT either way. or you may put 80 in call and 20 in put. Hoping it goes up, yet if goes down you can gain some back.
Posted by Homersbud on :
quote:Originally posted by Rockster: For example here ya go. XLF is financial sector. You can buy a put and call on this index and you can make some good money if it moves a LOT either way. or you may put 80 in call and 20 in put. Hoping it goes up, yet if goes down you can gain some back.
Ya, I've been playing DUG (Oil Short) for a few weeks now. Always been making money, but selling too damn soon!!
I had some Oct $49 calls I bought for $.80, sold them a few days later for $1.50, friggin calls eventually hit $33 a week later, ughhh
Bought some MS Nov puts late this afternoon. Not liking that trade right now...
Posted by Rockster on :
quote:Originally posted by Homersbud:
quote:Originally posted by Rockster: For example here ya go. XLF is financial sector. You can buy a put and call on this index and you can make some good money if it moves a LOT either way. or you may put 80 in call and 20 in put. Hoping it goes up, yet if goes down you can gain some back.
Ya, I've been playing DUG (Oil Short) for a few weeks now. Always been making money, but selling too damn soon!!
I had some Oct $49 calls I bought for $.80, sold them a few days later for $1.50, friggin calls eventually hit $33 a week later, ughhh
Bought some MS Nov puts late this afternoon. Not liking that trade right now...
ha.. thats the way it is. It's good to take that profit.. I let one double go all the way back to 0. that's too bad man. Sometimes I'll take half and leave half when they go up like that.
Posted by Lockman on :
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