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ECCI. #1 Hurricane Percentage Play
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by utvolsfan13: [QB] Discussion from NHC "WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS." Note: The GFDL is a model made specifically for tropical cyclones. It is a very credible model but hasn't been doing that great so far this year, so it may end up being wrong.. but it does have the storm moving WSW for a time into Cuba. Also, I'm sure it was hot as hell in New Orleans before Katrina but there was not a gigantic ridge over the entire East Coast. It is virtually impossible for this storm to head anywhere east of the Texas border if it reaches the Gulf. Look at a satellite image or any upper air map. This ridge is HUGE and that's why there's record heat all the way up into NYC. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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