quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Apparently I was way off...
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: My guess is this:
There will be a slow steady decline in price as people begin to lose interest and sell to move on to the next big thing. Evetually there will be another wave where people think the short squeeze started again and the price will go up to levels far above the recent .05 high. I'm willing to wait a bit and will try to get back in closer to a penny in a few weeks. As a holder of restricted shares, I'm still hoping taht I am wrong and the price continues its upward ascent, but realistically I am thinking there's more downside coming before the next upswing.
These are pennys, hard to guess at best.. ideas are always welcome..
-------------------- "Remember... no matter where you go, there you are." - Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome Posts: 261 | From: BFE | Registered: Jan 2005
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Folks..Scottrade just left a message and said they have a stock certificate from my JPHC shares that has been transferred to PAIV...I know this has more than likely been answered a million times, but what is up with this certificate? scottrade said they will not trade the restricted shares...anyone else in the same boat..are they useless...I had 500K of JPHC..not sure what I have of PAIV...sorry to say I have been caught up with life and have not been doing my DD..any help would be appreciated...Thanks
-------------------- I teach in the middle of a cornfield-Do your own DD and don't base your investments on my opinions Posts: 599 | From: AmishLand, PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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It goes back and forth..some say they got certs comin to them, some say in the mail, some say their brokers are givin them a run- a round, hard to say right now..
-------------------- "Remember... no matter where you go, there you are." - Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome Posts: 261 | From: BFE | Registered: Jan 2005
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Bad decision by me... I sold at .032. Whoops.
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Well I just bailed. Took a small loss on the 100K I bought today, but I'm gonna wait to see how it plays out a bit more before jumping back in. Good luck to all of you.
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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Here's the deal. Basically there are supposed to be 27million shares of this stock outstanding. When Ameritrade screwed up they released hundreds of millions of shares into the market that should not have been there. People gobbled up these shares, and knowing about a potential short squeeze, may have said "I bought at .001 and I'm not selling til we hit a nickel." Even though that's 5000%, we blew past that today. Some people (myself included) took profits much earlier. As Ameritrade buys the shares back, fewer and fewer people are willign to sell at each level, and you have some people who won't sell til 25 cents, 50 cents, $1, etc. Eventually the shares at one level dry up and the price goes up to the next level. It really could see $1 if (and this is the huge if that no one really knows for sure) the above mentioned scenario is true and Ameritrade has to buy the shares back. In fact, just throwing out the $1 may seem ridiculous, but IF IF IF there really is this kind of unprecedented short squeeze, I don't see why it couldn't go to $2, $5, $10 etc, if enough people hold there shares.
As far as I know, nothing like this, in this magnitude has happened before, so we're in uncharted territory.
quote:Originally posted by NEL: tonicma, how can this really go to $1, seems pretty impossible?
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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i wish i could put a stop loss in that wouldnt execute for a year when my shares become unrestricted.
Posts: 1295 | From: New Jersey | Registered: Dec 2004
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I have a proposition! I'll trade my restricted shares for unrestircted shares 5-1 anyone insterested --- just hope that those of us that held will be profitable in the long run! Then again... hope and stocks aren't a good combo !!! Great for those making money ... glad to see that some one is off of this stock!
Posts: 610 | From: Victoria | Registered: Dec 2004
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Following is my "armchair" analysis of where we're at today. Given the lack of any verifiable facts, it is entirely speculation and MUST NOT be used in plotting entry/exit points.
As you will see, I am being very conservative with the numbers. Even when hugely skewed in Ameritrade's favor - it suggests that only 47% of the shorted shares could possibly be covered to date.
During the panic sell-off last May, 1.57 billion shares were sold into the float in two day's time. I am going to call 1.519 billion of those shares "short shares," assuming that every legitimate PAIV shareholder sold out too. Therefore, 57 million legitimate shares are deducted from the two-day volume numbers.
So....
ASSUMED SHORT POSITION = 1,519,000,000 shares
I have omitted trading volume from May 25th through the 29, because I highly doubt AT would have rushed in to begin covering right away. IMO, that week only added to the depth of the short position as retail investors bought and sold with each other. Even though that's a reasonable assessment, I will throw those trades out, again erring in favor of the shorts.
So the "covering trades" count begins the day PAIV appeared on SHO (May 30) which certainly would have added pressure to begin covering.
When I add the total volume from May 30 until July 14, I come up with approximately 717 million total shares traded. I will further err in AT's favor by eliminating the retail investors entirely. Assume that EVERY share traded from from May 30 until July 14 was an Ameritrade covering trade. While we know that's not true, look what it tells us:
TOTAL POSSIBLE COVER TRADES TO DATE = 717,000,000 shares
Wow. That's less than HALF of the short position. When you consider that covering only 47% of the short shares caused PAIV to gain 920% (.005 - .051), it is a safe bet to say that covering the remaining shorts would bring us up another 1000% from Friday's close of .037. Therefore:
SHARE PRICE UPON FINAL COVER = $0.37 per share
If you take a more realistic position, and assume that only HALF of the trades since May 30 were cover trades, that gives us a figure of 358,000,000 shares covered to date. Personally, I bet AT has covered only 200 or so million thus far. However:
"MORE REALISTIC" COVER TRADES TO DATE = 358,000,000 shares
Now we're looking at only 23.5% of the position being covered as of July 14. Since PAIV gained 920% covering just a quarter of the shares, that means 75% more to go...for a total gain of 3,680%:
SHARE PRICE UPON COVER - "REALISTIC NUMBERS" = $1.06 per share
Again I stress these are not facts. But based on everything above, I do think we have a shot at passing $0.10 or even $0.18. Keep in mind AT will use every dirty trick in the book - shakeouts, new shorted shares, etc. Even assuming an average cover price of just $0.10 per share - that's over $150 million. I expect that AT will find a way to worm out of paying that kind of dough, either through dirty tricks, an extended timeframe, or both.
GLT all of us!
Posts: 165 | From: pennyland | Registered: May 2006
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So what happens if TDA, Scottrade and others can't cover? Do we lose? This can't be the first time that something like this has happened.
Posts: 81 | From: TX | Registered: May 2006
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Ameritrade screwed up, they have to cover... or they could buy PAIV out, that might be cheaper. From what I've read nothing like this has ever happened before. We'll see but Ameritrade will probably be forced to buy back all of those shares that they allowed to be sold.
Posts: 165 | From: pennyland | Registered: May 2006
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Still holding my shares of this stock. Sold some but not much ONLY $50,000 worth still holding a LOT of shares.
Posts: 1227 | Registered: Feb 2006
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Oh did I mention my current net worth is about 2 3million dollars. Man I thought I would get that much from CMKX. BUT it looks like CMKX might just become a bonus too.
BTW, I still hold several 10's million of this shares. which means I still own more than the o/s so you can be assured this short squeeze will continue.
Posts: 1227 | Registered: Feb 2006
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Below are Volume Days for JPHC and Paiv, Now Brokerages loaned out JPHC Shares to other Firms how many we do not know Take a look at April 24, 25, 26 on JPHC the enrtire Float changed hands each Day.. Take a look at May 22, 2006 on Volume for Paiv it traded almost 20 times the A/S that one day.. Paiv only has around 56 Million Shares.
So what does all this mean? I see GOOD THINGS AHEAD.
Just calling everyone's attention to the magnitude of the short position.
Look at the massive volume back in May. Where did all those shares come from?
Then look at the tiny little volume "bumps" in July. Those little guys sent the price up 1500%. Just think how many more "bumps" we need, and how high it may go...
posted
Only shares bought back in May were restricted, the shares you buy tomorrow and so on are free to be traded daily.
Posts: 165 | From: pennyland | Registered: May 2006
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