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Author Topic: Warning Model Management Inc. (OTC BB: WNMI) $0.003
longfellow
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quote:
Originally posted by scorpionet:
Longfellow..nice to see you on everyboard..lol

Hey there scorp...thought I should register on all the boards that I link the site to, even though I don't normally post on all of them.


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longfellow
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quote:
Originally posted by betting babe:
Ok, which "many"? Just because you said you were only including the facts... and I didn't see any, but then again I am not entirely familiar with VS so maybe I'm missing something? Gisele isn't repped by them, Adriana isn't, so... are they contract, consistent appearances or one-offs?

Don't mean to offend LF. Just want to keep up with your DD.
~BB


And, no offense at all, that's exactly what I want, good feedback! Thanks! I just got word that Steve Chamberlin spoke with one of the regulars on another board and that he had indicated VS/Warning involvement, but until all that is clarified, I'm pulling the reference from the site.


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GreenStar
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"...Another reason I think Warning is so ahead of the game- going public before any other agency."

Yes, I absolutely agree, knowing Warning is driven by a business-minded, seasoned leader in the industry we have only up to go!

The thought of you hyping for Warning did flicker upon me, however, I am convinced you are an investor as the rest of us are. As well, I wouldn't think a seasoned businessman like Chamberlin would jeprodize such a good thing.

For a stock to do well, you need buzz, we got it. You need news updates, we got it, you need a business-minded company leader, we got it. You need a proven business machine, we got it, you need profit and it's coming soon to a browser near you!

I'm thinking to solicit Warning a production of a silver/gold promotions pendant using their logo? From the business mind of an entrepreneurial model, do you think it would be worn if it was designed in good taste? Any thoughts?

dw

dw

------------------
dw


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user095263
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I think the best model agency product I ever saw was - I can't remember the agency- an agency that gave their models tshirts to wear out at night that said "don't tell my booker you saw me here" and "yes, i'm a model & yes, i know i look like one". heah!
I'm just not sure who would actually want to wear such a pendant, good taste or not.
What I would solicit them for, in regards to your pendants, is Christmas presents. Agencies give every model a Christmas present at the end of the year. it would be a nice change to the stupid agenda I get every single year. Who still uses agendas anyway?!
Better yet- solicit every agency with your pendant idea. I think it would be a hit. Then again, leather wristbands with a coin or belt buckles would be way cooler. Models can't wear jewelry on an everyday basis, cuz we often have to take it off for castings...
~BB

quote:
Originally posted by GreenStar:

"...Another reason I think Warning is so ahead of the game- going public before any other agency."

Yes, I absolutely agree, knowing Warning is driven by a business-minded, seasoned leader in the industry we have only up to go!

The thought of you hyping for Warning did flicker upon me, however, I am convinced you are an investor as the rest of us are. As well, I wouldn't think a seasoned businessman like Chamberlin would jeprodize such a good thing.

For a stock to do well, you need buzz, we got it. You need news updates, we got it, you need a business-minded company leader, we got it. You need a proven business machine, we got it, you need profit and it's coming soon to a browser near you!

I'm thinking to solicit Warning a production of a silver/gold promotions pendant using their logo? From the business mind of an entrepreneurial model, do you think it would be worn if it was designed in good taste? Any thoughts?

dw

dw




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user095263
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From the business mind of an entrepreneurial model...

I'd like my commission when you get the sales ;-)


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GreenStar
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quote:
Originally posted by betting babe:
From the business mind of an entrepreneurial model...

I'd like my commission when you get the sales ;-)


You sure have me-a-thinking about promo for Warning Modeling! ...you design a Warning Management promo, I'll manufacture it...eh?


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dazedtrader
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Big drop this morning.... now I don't feel so bad about selling yesterday "prematurely" at .016 (was kicking myself yesterday)... Ah well, go low again WNMI and I'll ride you right back up again.
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Bob-on-the-golf-course
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CBS Market Watch has just announced that Paris Hilton will have a new perfume named after her. Any comments on if Warning will be impacted by this?

Bob


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GreenStar
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quote:
Originally posted by Bob-on-the-golf-course:
CBS Market Watch has just announced that Paris Hilton will have a new perfume named after her. Any comments on if Warning will be impacted by this?

Bob



I'm hoping this info is on the street, perhaps explaining the recent jump to .018. If so, we will go back and beyond!

My understanding is that Warning is in the loop to profit on product endorcements and the sort. If the proposed perfume does well we will see it in Warnings future financials as well as an emmediate stock price jump.
Warning: the corn will-be-popping!
dw


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GreenStar
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CBS Market Watch has just announced that Paris Hilton will have a new perfume named after her. Any comments on if Warning will be impacted by this?

Bob[/QUOTE]

Just viewed news at: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDB2457AA%2DF1A1%2D464E%2DBA6E%2D0568F5F0B557%7D&siteid=mktw


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user095263
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My "guess" is that the monetary payment is somehow rolled into the "Guess" contract that Paris recently signed (see my earlier post).
Reinforcing that guess is a recent parlux/Guess licensing agreement signed Nov 5, 2003. http://www.parlux.com/News/News_11_05_03.htm So, this is simply an extension of the contract she signed last week to rep Guess Jeanswear.

In regards to Warning's benefit from this, they will always receive commission from any work Paris does. For example, let's call this a 5 million dollar contract for Paris. Warning (this is really approximated, as models typically pay a 20% commission to their agents) would likely receive 10% from Paris and add 20% to the billing, giving them 30% of the 5 mil contract.
figures aside, Paris working will always mean revenue for Warning.
~BB

quote:
Originally posted by Bob-on-the-golf-course:
CBS Market Watch has just announced that Paris Hilton will have a new perfume named after her. Any comments on if Warning will be impacted by this?

Bob



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longfellow
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quote:
Originally posted by betting babe:
My "guess" is that the monetary payment is somehow rolled into the "Guess" contract that Paris recently signed (see my earlier post).
Reinforcing that guess is a recent parlux/Guess licensing agreement signed Nov 5, 2003. http://www.parlux.com/News/News_11_05_03.htm So, this is simply an extension of the contract she signed last week to rep Guess Jeanswear.

In regards to Warning's benefit from this, they will always receive commission from any work Paris does. For example, let's call this a 5 million dollar contract for Paris. Warning (this is really approximated, as models typically pay a 20% commission to their agents) would likely receive 10% from Paris and add 20% to the billing, giving them 30% of the 5 mil contract.
figures aside, Paris working will always mean revenue for Warning.
~BB


BB, are you saying that Paris signed on with Guess last week, and that WNMI is getting a cut of that deal? I haven't been able to verify that anywhere yet, please share a link if that is the case (sorry if I missed an earlier post from you). That would be excellent, and I'd think we'd see some PR about that in the immediate future if that were the case.


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longfellow
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The coke ad with Malia Jones just aired, during American Idol.
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scorpionet
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quote:
Originally posted by longfellow:
The coke ad with Malia Jones just aired, during American Idol.


Posted: Tue May 04, 2004 11:07 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alot of my friends saw the commercials airing tonight..they also said that there were many coke commercials..hehehe..and that they were very nicely done.....hurray!..go WNMI!..keep it up Malia!
_________________
"If ya keep doin' what ya doin', you'll keep gettin' what ya gettin"
--------------------------------------------------------
- SCORPION


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scorpionet
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more juicy news from Beverley Hills..lol

Posted: Tue May 04, 2004 11:11 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You know. In the building that Warning's in... there are numerous other businesses. I hopped on the elevator going to lunch and i see this beautiful woman. Blonde... not a runway model type. But a nice round solid firm body. She gave me a little smile.... and i continued drooling. Well later in the day, I found out she was with Ecstacy Airlines. Wow... It's this airline company that flies you around. The stewardess are dressed in lingerie. Yikes. I saw some pics.. Wow. Im sure there is a pic of her somewhere online. I saw several of pics of her on brochures and other items in LA. Just a very nice memory i had to share. mach

http://www.ecstasky.com


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longfellow
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Regarding the question of whether Warning represents "most" or "many" of the Victoria's Secret models, Brian Bonar just emailed me:

That is a very difficult question to respond to acurately. First we have to define most, I do not intend to try. I think the best way to respond is that we have many models who model for Victoria's Secret.
Brian Bonar

So, I'm going to reinsert the "many" verbage and leave it at that, until I get further clarificaiton on an exact number, etc. The only one I know of offhand is Alessandro Ambrosio, if anyone knows any details of other VS models that work for Warning, please email me.


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longfellow
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Incidentally, Brian Bonar emailed that to me at 10:30pm his time, 1:30am my time. Someone is burning the midnight oil out there.
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whizknock
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Patience is the key!

------------------
whizknock


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Bob Frey
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Warning! Enters Agreement to Co-Produce Premier Celebrity Event -- Bullrun 2004
Warning Model Management Inc. - May 05 8:28 AM ET
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=66825


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Nikodemis
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i love how with every lil' bitty pr we go up. go wnmi!
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StockMinister
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This is true - did not see it earlier.

Posted by: bparlette
In reply to: None Date:5/5/2004 11:45:11 AM
Post #of 46288

WNMI PR TO BE RE-RELEASED ON ALL MAJOR NEWS OUTLETS TODAY

The following PR did not have the Symbol and was not received by the market as of now. It will be released this afternoon as per Warning. Just a heads up!

Warning! Enters Agreement to Co-Produce Premier Celebrity Event -- Bullrun 2004

LOS ANGELES, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 05/05/2004 -- Warning Model Management Inc. is excited to announce that it has entered an agreement with Bullrun Ltd. to assist in the production of Bullrun 2004, an event that is expected to be the epitome of all luxury motor rallies. David Green, President of Bullrun Ltd. states, "We are excited to have the privilege of working with the Warning management team and celebrity models. Their status in the fashion industry will alone insure that this event is recognized as the premier celebrity event of 2004."

On June 4th, 2004 the world's top models, celebrities and 200 luxury super cars will be under starters orders in LA, ready to embark on an epic eight-day 3000 mile rolling party across the southern United States.

Bullrun brings together stars of life, sport and screen for an unforgettable adventure, where, evidently, the only obligatory goals are to party, drive and enjoy. Fueled by an impressive schedule of private events at the finest hotels in the most exciting cities in America, Bullrunners make their way from one checkpoint to the next, learning their destinations daily. Designed to impress even the headiest of hedonists, Bullrun promises to leave those who feel they've already done everything glam, fast and furious, pleasantly surprised.

This year's rally scheduled for June 4th to 11th will take us on an unforgettable journey -- a moveable feast of super cars, superstars and only the finest hotels and bars. Beginning in Los Angeles, to Las Vegas, Phoenix, Santa Fe, Dallas, New Orleans, Tampa and finally rocking to a close in celebration capital of America, Miami.

Bullrun will also be the first rally to be seen through the eyes of the international media, providing an exclusive insight to all the antics one would expect on an A-class 8 day party. Media from around the globe including MTV, BBC, Robb Report, GQ and Conde Naste Traveler are confirmed and with the list of celebrities entered we are confident that Access Hollywood, E, EXtra, Entertainment Tonight and VH1 will provide coverage. Steve Chamberlin (Warning COO) states, "This annual production will not only help generate substantial revenue for Warning, but just as important is getting the Warning name and logo out to mass exposure which is crucial for future plans. We expect the Warning Label to be prominently displayed throughout the event by many popular models, celebrities and on all luxury vehicles. More exciting developments including sponsorships will be announced soon."

Visit: www.bullrun.com

About Warning Model Management

Warning Model Management is a full-service model and talent agency. We develop and supply models, both male and female, for assignment for a variety of jobs, including, but not limited to: Fashion Editorials for nearly every magazine in the world, for catalogues, newspaper advertisements, for advertising clients for use in magazines, posters, websites, billboards, bus sides, look books and many other outlets. We also provide models and actors for all forms of TV work as well as industrial videos and in some cases personal appearances and promotions.

Forward-Looking Statements

Statements in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding future revenues and sales projections, plans for future financing, the ability to meet operational milestones, marketing arrangements and plans, and shipments to and regulatory approvals in international markets. Such statements reflect management's current views, are based on certain assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events, or performance may differ materially from the above forward-looking statements due to a number of important factors, and will be dependent upon a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, our ability to obtain additional financing that will allow us to continue our current and future operations and whether demand for our products and services in domestic and international markets will continue to expand. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date hereof or to reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard to these forward-looking statements or the occurrence of unanticipated events. Factors that may impact the Company's success are more fully disclosed in the Company's most recent public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including its annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2002, and its subsequent filings with the SEC.


------------------
Be blessed

[This message has been edited by StockMinister (edited May 05, 2004).]


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Bob Frey
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Just working our way through the sellers.
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user095263
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Ok, but for the record I feel it is misleading.

"first we have to define most"?
"first we have to define what the meaning of the word is, is" comes to mind, and as we all know, THAT MAN was covering (and did not have sex with THAT WOMAN), so what do you think was meant here?

They have one you can name, and she isn't a "Gisele". Working for VS could mean little informal runway shows, sales fliers.. it could mean a lot the way he stated it. These are not big revenue sources.

Also, agencies "have" a lot of girls. I myself have agencies in Miami, LA, Seattle, Hamburg Germany, Munich Germany, Paris, Milan, Barcelona.. The big picture is that if I work in NYC where I am based those agencies don't make money. If I was EXCLUSIVE with them they make money, and Paris is EXCLUSIVE with Warning, therefore anything she does makes them money.

I just want to clarify the difference, because I am interested in Warning revenue that's solid, not some chick who makes $1500 per day as a flash in the pan for a victoria's secret clearance sale. I wanna see the REAL revenue, even if it's at the $3000/day level, cuz once a model gets there, she's pretty much a lifer for that caliber of client. Any model with a decent agency can get a few $1500/day gigs, but thats just a grand for the agency.

I think that anyone who has done their DD will be turned off by the misinformation, but that's just me. I like facts, not conjecture and word plays.

~BB

quote:
Originally posted by longfellow:
Regarding the question of whether Warning represents "most" or "many" of the Victoria's Secret models, Brian Bonar just emailed me:

That is a very difficult question to respond to acurately. First we have to define most, I do not intend to try. I think the best way to respond is that we have many models who model for Victoria's Secret.
Brian Bonar

So, I'm going to reinsert the "many" verbage and leave it at that, until I get further clarificaiton on an exact number, etc. The only one I know of offhand is Alessandro Ambrosio, if anyone knows any details of other VS models that work for Warning, please email me.



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Bob Frey
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Hi Betting,

I like this company because of real revenues even though the last reporting was not a good thing.

I like the recent signings and think they should greatly improve the revenue.

I like your write ups about the management and the industry.

Now the question to me is what the heck are they worth?

The market at the moment is saying about .0175.

Is this real low? Real high?

Our does the market not have a clue?

My guess is the later. But time will tell.


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user095263
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I don't think we'll see small PRs cuz it is just business as usual. This flew under the radar because unless you actually read about the trade who would care? I can't see Warning announcing every modeling deal with a PR. I mean, that IS their business- getting models contracts. I just assume that's what they're doing every single day.

The Guess contract was mentioned in numberous places, but ultimately reported by the World Entertainment News Network which can't be viewed online. However, it is re-reported at IMDb.com, a very reliable source for info on models and actors.Says March 17, but the news didn't hit the street here til last week. http://www.imdb.com/news/wenn/2004-03-17#celeb6

Additionally, and this is completely speculative rumor, it has been mentioned in the gossip columns and around the biz that paris is working on a Candies ad, for whihc she would be paid 1million+. Keeping ears open, but again, this is what she got the agency for. To make her deals, get her contracts,etc. They're just doing what they've been hired to do, and since estimates are around 25 mil per year as Paris's before-model income, I assume they plan to try to at least double it now that she's officially "working".
~BB

quote:
Originally posted by longfellow:
BB, are you saying that Paris signed on with Guess last week, and that WNMI is getting a cut of that deal? I haven't been able to verify that anywhere yet, please share a link if that is the case (sorry if I missed an earlier post from you). That would be excellent, and I'd think we'd see some PR about that in the immediate future if that were the case.



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Bob Frey
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I agree not every deal will generate a PR. The line from todays that made it worth putting out was:

Steve Chamberlin (Warning COO) states, "This annual production will not only help generate substantial revenue for Warning, but just as important is getting the Warning name and logo out to mass exposure which is crucial for future plans. We expect the Warning Label to be prominently displayed throughout the event by many popular models, celebrities and on all luxury vehicles. More exciting developments including sponsorships will be announced soon."


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user095263
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Hear ya. And since it's just a guess, I don't really bother trying to figure it out. As long as I see dollar$ in their future, I'm in.
After all, there is no precedent here.
~BB

quote:
Originally posted by Bob Frey:
Hi Betting,

I like this company because of real revenues even though the last reporting was not a good thing.

I like the recent signings and think they should greatly improve the revenue.

I like your write ups about the management and the industry.

Now the question to me is what the heck are they worth?

The market at the moment is saying about .0175.

Is this real low? Real high?

Our does the market not have a clue?

My guess is the later. But time will tell.



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longfellow
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quote:
Originally posted by betting babe:
I don't think we'll see small PRs cuz it is just business as usual. This flew under the radar because unless you actually read about the trade who would care? I can't see Warning announcing every modeling deal with a PR.

Betting babe,

I'm not doubting that she signed with Guess, I know that that's a fact. I was asking what your source was on the Guess deal having been signed AFTER Paris joined Warning a month ago. Because I wouldn't think Warning would be getting any of the moolah if the Guess deal was signed first, before she joing Warning (and I first heard about the Guess deal back in February), am I right? Please correct me, since you know more about the modeling biz than probably any of us do.

Also...your nice little speech about the Victoria's Secret blurb has convinced me to move the reference to Alessandro Ambrosio's paragraph, instead of up at the top of the page, stating that she is one of the WNMI models working with VS. I don't think that implies too much, just that there are also some other models involved as well. Thanks for the opinions, and if you ever do find out which WNMI models are working with VS, please share the info.


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scorpionet
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corrected PR just came out(now includes the ticker symbol)..all is well closing very strong here..hehehe
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Just Learning
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This is corrected if it hanst already bene posted.
/ CORRECTION - Warning! Enters Agreement to Co-Produce Premier Celebrity Event -- Bullrun 2004

LOS ANGELES, CA, May. 05, 2004 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- In the news release, " Warning! Enters Agreement to Co-Produce Premier Celebrity Event -- Bullrun 2004" issued earlier today by Warning Model Management Inc., we are advised by the company that the ticker symbol (OTC BB: WNMI) was inadvertently omitted from the first paragraph by the company. The corrected release is as follows.
Warning! Enters Agreement to Co-Produce Premier Celebrity Event -- Bullrun 2004

LOS ANGELES, CA -- 05/05/2004 -- Warning Model Management Inc. (OTC BB: WNMI) is excited to announce that it has entered an agreement with Bullrun Ltd. to assist in the production of Bullrun 2004, an event that is expected to be the epitome of all luxury motor rallies. David Green, President of Bullrun Ltd. states, "We are excited to have the privilege of working with the Warning management team and celebrity models. Their status in the fashion industry will alone insure that this event is recognized as the premier celebrity event of 2004."

On June 4th, 2004 the world's top models, celebrities and 200 luxury super cars will be under starters orders in LA, ready to embark on an epic eight-day 3000 mile rolling party across the southern United States.

Bullrun brings together stars of life, sport and screen for an unforgettable adventure, where, evidently, the only obligatory goals are to party, drive and enjoy. Fueled by an impressive schedule of private events at the finest hotels in the most exciting cities in America, Bullrunners make their way from one checkpoint to the next, learning their destinations daily. Designed to impress even the headiest of hedonists, Bullrun promises to leave those who feel they've already done everything glam, fast and furious, pleasantly surprised.

This year's rally scheduled for June 4th to 11th will take us on an unforgettable journey -- a moveable feast of super cars, superstars and only the finest hotels and bars. Beginning in Los Angeles, to Las Vegas, Phoenix, Santa Fe, Dallas, New Orleans, Tampa and finally rocking to a close in celebration capital of America, Miami.

Bullrun will also be the first rally to be seen through the eyes of the international media, providing an exclusive insight to all the antics one would expect on an A-class 8 day party. Media from around the globe including MTV, BBC, Robb Report, GQ and Conde Naste Traveler are confirmed and with the list of celebrities entered we are confident that Access Hollywood, E, EXtra, Entertainment Tonight and VH1 will provide coverage. Steve Chamberlin (Warning COO) states, "This annual production will not only help generate substantial revenue for Warning, but just as important is getting the Warning name and logo out to mass exposure which is crucial for future plans. We expect the Warning Label to be prominently displayed throughout the event by many popular models, celebrities and on all luxury vehicles. More exciting developments including sponsorships will be announced soon."

Visit: www.bullrun.com

About Warning Model Management

Warning Model Management is a full-service model and talent agency. We develop and supply models, both male and female, for assignment for a variety of jobs, including, but not limited to: Fashion Editorials for nearly every magazine in the world, for catalogues, newspaper advertisements, for advertising clients for use in magazines, posters, websites, billboards, bus sides, look books and many other outlets. We also provide models and actors for all forms of TV work as well as industrial videos and in some cases personal appearances and promotions.

Forward-Looking Statements

Statements in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding future revenues and sales projections, plans for future financing, the ability to meet operational milestones, marketing arrangements and plans, and shipments to and regulatory approvals in international markets. Such statements reflect management's current views, are based on certain assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events, or performance may differ materially from the above forward-looking statements due to a number of important factors, and will be dependent upon a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, our ability to obtain additional financing that will allow us to continue our current and future operations and whether demand for our products and services in domestic and international markets will continue to expand. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date hereof or to reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard to these forward-looking statements or the occurrence of unanticipated events. Factors that may impact the Company's success are more fully disclosed in the Company's most recent public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including its annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2002, and its subsequent filings with the SEC.


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whizknock
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I will be buying more! Alot more!

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Ah, I see. You want to make sure the money is going to Warning. Well, I suppose there is no way to know. But here's what I think.

1- I heard rumor earlier in the year about the Guess deal, but nothing more. The first press came out in March. Still means nothing to me until the film is shot.
About 10 days ago, the shoot for the new Guess campaign was completed, shot by Ellen von Unwerth. Until it goes to press the client (Guess), while perhaps guaranteeing the contract, doesn't need to pay. That could take up to 6 months.

2- Why on earth would an agency sign a model that already has prior committments and is not marketable? Wouldn't make sense. We don't know the actual date Paris was signed, do we? We only know what date they allowed us to know she was signed. Smart biz says they approached her for representation, put their money where their mouths were, solidified the deal and got her endorsements immediately.

3- Given the length of the contract, no model agency would take on a new model who would be tied up, unavailable to work for a jeans company, for a year or more.

So I believe you have a viable point, but common sense talls me Warning, not a desperate agency, made a pretty good business deal for themselves.
~BB

Answering Longfellow:
I'm not doubting that she signed with Guess, I know that that's a fact. I was asking what your source was on the Guess deal having been signed AFTER Paris joined Warning a month ago. Because I wouldn't think Warning would be getting any of the moolah if the Guess deal was signed first, before she joing Warning (and I first heard about the Guess deal back in February), am I right? Please correct me, since you know more about the modeling biz than probably any of us do.


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longfellow
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Betting babe,

Thanks for that reply, I suppose we'll have to wait for a future financial sheet to know for sure. It still seems to me that a gig of that size and notoriety would warrant a PR, or at least a mention in an upcoming PR. Not that I'm hoping for it, I prefer to see fewer PR's--less noise, more news. Too much fluff can kill momentum. Thanks again.


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I don't expect to see much PR from the agency on their models' contract signings. That's up to the model to PR if it's big enough, or the client to PR if it's a new campaign. Warning would be stepping on toes hyping every decent job they book.

I expect to see PR pertaining to the Warning business dealings (who they've signed, revenues, expansions) - not sure I would trust them as a business as much if they felt the need to ride their clients' coat tails.
~BB

quote:
Originally posted by longfellow:
Betting babe,

Thanks for that reply, I suppose we'll have to wait for a future financial sheet to know for sure. It still seems to me that a gig of that size and notoriety would warrant a PR, or at least a mention in an upcoming PR. Not that I'm hoping for it, I prefer to see fewer PR's--less noise, more news. Too much fluff can kill momentum. Thanks again.



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whizknock
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Interesting post. Forgive the length but I didn't feel it was up to me to edit this.

By: lillbirdy
06 May 2004, 09:18 PM EDT Msg. 21345 of 21373
(Msg. is a reply to by None.)
Have you guys read this post? very enlightening!

Posted by: investorgation
In reply to: None Date:5/6/2004 12:27:55 PM
Post #of 782

First, I believe WNMI has a better shot at becoming a highly successful company than most companies on the OTC and that, if I am right about that, an eventual market cap of hundreds of millions will more than adequately support a vastly higher PPS even with a higher share count. But anyone who believes this company can be a major hit will have already digested the powerful synergies this company is pursuing.

WNMI's business plan clearly intends to leverage a savvy take on our contemporary popular culture's obsession with celebrity and material trappings with a media driven organization vertically integrating brand building with agency representation, media packaging, couture and product development in ways few companies have done to date. The Warning! brand name is a simple and unbelievably brilliant logo and it could become a very, very valuable asset in and of itself just for its licensing possibilities alone. Warning! is a potential conglomerate with great earnings power in the making. And it is already a very active enterprise, not a "potentially" real OTC company (i.e., see Malia Jones Coke ad placement, Faking It, Gumball Rally, etc.). Paris will just add more juice, but she is not even the make or break factor in this company's future at all.

Second, and the primary point of this message, is that I am absolutely convinced the trading behavior of WNMI's stock has everything to do with WNMI being oversold by MMs selling without actual inventory on hand and they have done so at depressed price levels for reasons I'll explain.

Different brokerages reflect different permutations of their streamer data display. Ameritrade, in particular is showing the actual block sizes going through, but the buys are often registered in the Quote Trend as sales in Red, not buys in Green. With Ameritrade being as influential broker in the penny stock market as it is, this alone has a disproportionately large effect on the perceptions of the retail trading community.

These inaccuracies in WNMI's case has been going on for at least the past six weeks I have been actively watching it trade. Anyone who dismisses the idea of MM manipulation is obviously not watching the scenario that has been unfolding with WNMI. No, it is NOT a myth, so don't kid yourself if you want to call it paranoid conjecture. It most certainly is not. There have been numerous days where buys heavily outweighed sells and it often has not shown up that way. There are numerous ways to dissect how MMs effect the appearance of trading activity, but I will stick to the central premise of their overselling WNMI.

The inconguities in the buy/sell reporting also explains in part the 30-40M volume days that has often been racked up with WNMI. You can rightly assume part of this is an aspect of some MMs working together to create churn by trading shares (reflected in matching block sizes among other things). But it is also that they have been overselling shares they do not have, also artificially boosting the volume much of the time in the process.

Today, the volume was MUCH LOWER than previously, precisely when it SHOULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER. Today's news was very significant in terms of Warning!'s pending public awareness campaign and brand building efforts. Part of my knowledge is based on my observations after already holding a large position in WNMI for some time. Plus, I received further confirmation today when I found the price extremely attractive after the news was released and decided to add more.

During the afternoon I added another 1.5M shares to my position in WNMI. The MMs would pause for minutes at a time, then fill my multiple orders (only one partial fill the whole time) sold to me in many 100K+ share blocks. I first added at 0.0175, then 0.0166, then 0.0165. We're talking about a dozen buys sizeable enough to witness the handling of the transactions as they were effected.

The block sizes were accurately accounted for, but it was interesting to see during the periods in which I kept applying considerable buying pressure, Ameritrade's Quote Trend showed only a solid column of Red Sells. This has often been the case. You can rest assured that for at least 6 weeks, but likely longer, the MMs have often skewed actual retail buys to appear as sells. That is not even taking account their ability to trade between each other to create the appearance of selling pressure which also happens. The brief moments the price would drop to the bid (for instance, I'd buy at the Ask of 0.0165, then it would go back to the Bid price of 0.0155 or 0.016), it would then snap back to the Ask repeatedly. It was not just me buying. There were others.

Today's buying pressure ultimately prevented the MMs from dropping the price as easily as they have done with their recent shakeouts and I think there was very little consistent or significant retail selling of big blocks going on at the Bid today at all. I know for a FACT that there are many others besides myself holding big positions who are NOT selling. And just watching the trading absolutely confirms there has often been massive accumulation going on for more than a month.

Go find one of my few posts on this board as Investorgation and you will see that I identified this massive accumulation and blocks on the Ask by the MMs going on many weeks ago. The only thing I underestimated was the tenacity of the MMs and the severity of the situation. That it has persisted for another month just convinces me the MMs responsible for shorting this stock have dug themselves into a very serious hole:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=WNMI&read=9835
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=WNMI&read=10097

The volume would have been MUCH higher today if they had uncorked it and let run the rally obviously trying to happen. If they had, traders and investors seeing WNMI start to move and feeling the train was leaving the station would have started piling into WNMI in increasing numbers. Everyone knows it happens that way all the time. You would seen even greater buying pressure start to kick in. But the MMs kept it down as much as possible, only having to sell to those like myself who know what they are up to & who know this train WILL leave the station & that this IS the price to keep buying at.

I am convinced the MMs are definitely selling shares they do not have. I've been increasingly aware of this discrepancy in the trading of WNMI for these past 6 weeks I've watched this stock. I have marvelled at how often WNMI was blocked at the Ask to squelch a rally. This MM control has only infrequently and briefly been breached due to extra strong investor buying pressure since the run out of the sub-penny range. But then they have shaked it back down before a larger gain could be sustained and higher base prices established. I've seen it happening here over and over again. That leads to the questions:

If the MMs are selling without inventory, then why would they not do it at even higher prices?

In other words, if the buying pressure was so clearly there today and on other days, why would the MMs not take advantage of selling at even higher prices and let the price go up?

The answer is that the MMs may not have originally believed or known that WNMI was going to be as big a deal as I am almost certainly think it is going to be. Their hedge now is to at least cap the price as they have been doing, currently at below 2 cents, in the hopes WNMI will eventually lose gas on their shake outs and then go down back to earlier levels. Then they assume they can buy back shares from investors to cover at a lower price than the MM sold shares for and balance their books at a profit or at least at a minimial loss by comparison to what they could lose if they let WNMI run higher from the current price.

Since they almost certainly started doling out shares they didn't have during the big breakout from below a penny, it is my conviction they are already under water for many of those uncovered shares at a current loss on a percentage basis of as much as 100% or more. This explains their rabidness and constant attempts to block the stock. They most definitely did everything they could the past two weeks to try and drop WNMI below a penny again and have repeatedly failed.

They may actually be arrogant enough to believe they can force WNMI back to its prior sub-penny prices, BUT THEY WON'T. Mostly, I think they are damned worried and about to get desperate if they are not already. While they may have miscalculated about the potential value of this stock earlier, now they most likely really do know what WNMI can become: a stock with monstrous rallies. So they are going to do their best to hold it back as long as they can, trying to beat it back to cover their positions.

I think they are about to get seriously tripped up by their earlier misapprehension of WNMI's future valuation. The runs we should have had already will be juiced now by what could become a very serious short squeeze situation. When people mention short squeezes some think it is fantasy. Forget about it. It can definitely happen.

If the MMs are now totally hip to WNMI's potential, and I think they definitely are, there is probably going to be one classic day where recurring waves of buying pressure overwhelms them and they will break ranks (because some of them have worked together). Then some MMs will simply make the market and buy and sell real shares while the short MMs will start to scramble. Then the short MMs will have to participate in the market and pay the going rate, just like the rest of us during such a rally.

Our friend UCAP could lose millions of dollars if those shares they've been selling were not supplied by S-8 shareholders. I now believe much or most of their sells to investors were NOT from actual inventory. As a MM, UCAP really appears they may be a very reckless opportunist that will see their nonchalance backfire on them. The irony is that they may be in such a big pickle that they are sitting on the Ask selling even more shares they don't have in the hopes their continual efforts to block the share price from rising will eventually exhaust buyer demand and investors will throw in the towel in disgust.

Why, you may ask, would UCAP keep selling shares they don't have if they are already potentially so deep in the hole? Well, I think I just explained it. They're probably quite desperate now and are taking a big gamble they can tough it out long enough to reverse investor sentiment and tank the stock. Not a good bet when you're dealing with a company on the move like Warning! and I think, if they are continuing to short WNMI, it is not going to work out well for them at all.

Also, I've seen UCAP briefly switch to the Bid, then hop back on the Ask. Why? They may actually be buying some shares to fuel their above-described misguided effort to tank the stock. If they feel they are on the edge, they may be willing to actually pay for a few shares as part of their campaign to tank the stock to cover at lower prices. So they buy them in order to bring them back to the Ask to sell.

Plus, doing so briefly gives UCAP the appearance of actually performing some kind of legitimate market making function and not appear as only a virtual share selling machine. So if they sometimes buy some shares too, they don't have to only sell virtual shares that dig them deeper into the hole during their desperate selling campaign. And the further irony is they may be buying from other MMs to do so, which would be just one more artificial buy-sell transaction adding to the volume.

I thought WNMI could be a blockbuster stock already. Now I think we may see much higher prices earlier than I was prepared for. With the Gumball Rally soon to provide MASSIVE exposure of the Warning! brand name on MTV, ET, and in the print media, this stock only has 5 weeks max before this showdown between the delinquent MMs and the investing public about to overwhelm them with buying surges too big to hold back. But this stock has been itching to break for so long now that I don't think it will be that long.

Besides, it is totally reasonable to expect WNMI will have OTHER news to report as well, besides updates on the rally before the race kicks off in early June. WNMI is going to have some very big runs. If you think you know penny stocks and don't already realize WNMI is going to run, get with the program. Bashing this stock at these prices is for jokers only. Now I think there will be a big short squeeze adding fuel to the fires that have been burning and will burn harder because Warning! is going to be a hot company with a growing investor following.

There is one final point to consider. With MMs selling shares they don't have, that means shareholders hold MORE shares than the actual OS. That, for one, has done a great deal to depress the share price asides from the MMs who block the rallies. It should be at 0.05-0.10 by now, at least. But that should not alarm anyone. The ultimate point of this discourse, and the beauty of how the resolution will tie this all together, is that when the MMs are forced to buy back shares during the impending short squeeze:

1. They will become the most aggressive buyers of all. Once the jig is up and they have no choice but to start paying higher prices in fears it will become much more expensive very quickly, they will pile in or risk losing their shirts even more if the wait to buy. There is a tipping point in this scenario where the MMs simply know the tide has turned and they lost their battle. By waiting and hoping it will retrace back to prior levels, they risk incurring what I now expect would be millions of dollars more in losses if they wait any longer to buy back shares. With a stock of this potential magnitude, they will not be able to hide from the SEC if they don't cover their naked short positions. The short MMs will have NO CHOICE but to pay up. That's why you should not misinterpret the trading data and realize this is coming and not sell your shares too cavalierly.

2. The MMs will then have to retire those shares. I think it is likely they have oversold their non-existent shares in the hundreds of millions. I am not randomly speculating. There have been vastly more buys than sells. You could document it for the SEC if you want to, but just think about it. With tens of millions of shares routinely traded daily and multiples of the float traded over the past 2 months plus obvious long positions being taken during accumulation, there should be a minimum of 100 million shares that have been sold short. I think it is more.

3. Then, the beauty part, your shares will be able to find a truer valuation reflective of actual market forces and actual supply & demand. The stock will trade more accurately with the ACTUAL FLOAT in circulation. That means the share price will support much higher base prices when it goes up and it will.

4. And there will be more than enough traders who will sell out to allow the MMs to cover. And the longs will then have their holding's value restored in relation to the true share count. This is why you don't have to worry now about all of us holding more than the actual OS. It is to your advantage to hold until the squeeze causes the share count to be reconciled.

5. Once that happens, the MMs will not be so ready to mess with WNMI stock. Once burned, twice shy. They'll take their shorting shenanigans to another penny stock they think they can toy with. WNMI will become too valuable for them to take it lightly again. They didn't realize that when it was a sub-penny, but they do now. And they are going to get burned. If the losses are serious enough, it can actually damage a smaller MMs business. If they are vain enough to ever attempt to again oversell shares of WNMI they don't have, it will be at considerably higher prices and thus much more modest in terms of shares overextended on their books.

6. Finally, this reconciliation of shares and restoration of the actual float size will add to investor confidence that the stock can actually trade better. Some may have held back from purchasing shares recently since they were worried the stock was incapable of going higher. Well, I just explained why it has not gone up more and now you know that when it does it will likely go up even more during a big breakout. Blue skies will become very possible both because Warning! looks like a hot property and because the short squeeze will drive the rally harder. But, most importantly, as a stock, once the shackles of the shorting MMs are removed and the artificial dilution is resolved as a result, then it will simply be a healthier stock that trades more accurately in relationship to actual market demand.

I'll keep adding shares, especially if the MMs keep doing me the favor of putting a short lived chokehold on this firecracker. This could be one of the biggest gainers of the year, so don't underestimate what you've got here. This message is my contribution to WNMI shareholders so those who feel discouraged realize there is an explanation for the current depressed price and that their time will come. WNMI stock could become very valuable. Patient and strong hands will be the big winners here.

Good Luck,
IvG
--------------------------------------------

------------------
whizknock


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