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Author Topic: FRPT 50M$ contract with US Army
Jo4321
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Come back soon.

I'm lonely in this thread.

Jo

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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That's what I'm talking about with Stop-losses and FRPT.

Back up to $26's

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Livinonklendathu
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It never hit my stop, sold just above it as it did not look like a very strong close to me. Would have been back in this morning if my freakin internet was working. You still in?

--------------------
......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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Mortimer
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I'm still with you guys in this; lucky to sneak in when it went below 22 a week ago. I'm tempted to just call it a base hit and wait for another at bat when it comes back around, but I'm liking this recent run and will wait a couple days to see if I could steal second base or something.

Ok, let's go! Can I get an "F"! ....an "R"!.....

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/newsanalysis/small-cap-stock-spotlight/1036253 3.html

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Jo4321
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Still in. I don't think I'll ever be fully out. Can't decide when to call it quits with FRPT. At the beginning of this thread, I was hoping to get out at $5.00!

Since then, added more, then thought I'd get out at around $20.00. Now I'm kind of "averaged up", so I'd like to see this get back to $30.00 but even then I don't know if I'd get totally out. Probably just wait for some kind of buyout to make the decision for me.

Jo

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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minkybodl
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Force Protection, Inc. Board Member Steps Down
Friday June 15, 4:05 pm ET


LADSON, S.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Leading armored vehicle manufacturer Force Protection, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT - News) today announced that Frank Kavanaugh will step down from his position on the board of directors. His departure will be effective at the next shareholder meeting on June 21, 2007.


"Frank has been a visionary from the beginning," said Force Protection CEO Gordon McGilton. "When he began in 2001, the company was called Sonic Jet and it was financially and strategically floundering. Instead of abandoning a failed investment as other money managers might have done, Frank stepped in, rolled up his sleeves, identified a direction, gathered the necessary resources, and built a world-class organization. Force Protection is also an important financial success story. Under Frank's guidance, the company grew from $1.2 million in 2001 to $196 million in annual revenue in 2006. In the first quarter of 2007, Force Protection has already delivered over $100 million in revenue. Perhaps most remarkable is how the market cap for the company moved from less than $1 million in 2001 to more than $1.75 billion today under Frank's leadership.

"He has overseen remarkable corporate growth," said McGilton. "In the past four years, Force Protection's workforce has increased from less than a dozen employees to more than 950, its vehicle production rates have risen, its production infrastructure has expanded to a state-of-the-art 400,000 square foot campus and additional facilities, and its stock moved to the NASDAQ Stock Market in January 2006. In addition, more than $200 million in funding has been secured and partnerships have been forged with other industry leaders to continue to meet demand for our lifesaving vehicles.

"It is a rare privilege to work with someone of Frank's intelligence, passion, dedication, and perseverance," McGilton said. "Force Protection has richly benefited from his leadership and drive. We are extremely appreciative of his contribution and will continue to call on his expertise when required."

Force Protection's Buffalo and Cougar mine protected vehicles have been deployed with U.S. and Allied forces in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003. They have an unmatched record for troop safety with over more than two million hours of heavy combat operations, and are credited by troops with saving lives.

According to Kavanaugh, "There were three critical objectives we set out to accomplish six years ago. First, develop a management team capable of maximizing the opportunities in this industry; second, secure the capital base necessary for Force Protection to become the robust, innovative, mainstream manufacturer it is today; third, create the management methods and resources for the business to continue to innovate and grow. Now, I want to return my focus and energy to personal obligations and responsibilities.

"I am proud of the executive team that has been developed over the last three years, and confident that they will continue to demonstrate why Force Protection has been so successful," Kavanaugh said. "The organization's leaders are capable of taking Force Protection to new heights.

"It has been enormously gratifying to be engaged with the finest professionals in the industry as part of an enterprise that has revolutionized blast protection for the people I hold in the highest esteem, the men and women who are willing to sacrifice to defend our country," said Kavanaugh. "I look forward to continuing my support of Force Protection as an involved investor. Our business is about saving lives through the vehicles we produce. It has been deeply meaningful to be involved in such important work."

Force Protection is a leading ballistics research and manufacturing enterprise, specializing in the development and production of highly reinforced armored personnel carriers that are designed to save soldiers' lives by shielding them from the deadly effects of roadside bombs, or IEDs, which have become a leading killer of U.S. troops in Iraq. The trucks' unique, V-shaped hull is designed to deflect the force of IED blasts away from the vehicle, keeping soldiers inside safe and alive, and have become the proven response to an emerging global threat to U.S. troops. Its leading models include the 23 ton "Buffalo", a uniquely-designed mine clearance vehicle with a reinforced mechanical arm, and the family of "Cougar" vehicles, both of whose mine and ballistic protection capabilities are among the most advanced in the world. The vehicles are manufactured outside Charleston, S.C. Visit the company's website at www.forceprotection.net.


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070615/20070615005610.html?.v=1

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cspaude
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Any speculation that his stepping down opens the door for a buyout or signals a buyout? Hmmm. whatever's going on, the upward price movement is a welcome sight. And SIRI is moving back up. Good day for me.
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TimW
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LoL he just cashed in his 3 million in shares whats his interest anymore.

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Buy high, sell higher.

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Jo4321
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Hard to say what his stepping down will do short term. This IS FRPT. However, I think if it was going to be majorly negative, there would have been more after hours selling. Instead, the price actually went up after-hours.

I'm unsure what to do as I am going to be at summer camp starting tommorrow. I hate setting stops with FRPT because, so far, I've only been screwed by them. (But I didn't have any stops set during the decline from 31.00, THAT would have been a time when a stop worked with FRPT). Why this week to be away!?

Jo

--------------------
"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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cspaude
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I personally felt Frank was more of a negative for the company. It seemed he was the one carrying around the company's shady past, so I think his leaving is likely a positive. At the same time I don't think someone as high profile as him would step down at such a key moment unless he's stepping aside to make way for a pending buyout. OR.......to be devil's advocate.....he screwed up really really bad and lost the company contracts. Let's hope not.
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Jo4321
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Leaving tommorrow. To stop or not to stop, that is the question.

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Livinonklendathu
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Force Protection Industries, Inc.,* Ladson, S.C., is being awarded a $221,688,050 firm-fixed-priced delivery order #0004 under previously awarded contract (M67854-07-D-5031) for additional 395 Category I and 60 Category II Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) vehicles. Work will be performed in Ladson, S.C., and work is expected to be completed by December 2008.

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......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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Livinonklendathu
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http://www.defenselink.mil/contracts/contract.aspx?contractid=3541

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......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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cspaude
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Saw the after hours so I checked out defenselink before I checked here. Sweet deal! What this does is it disproves the analysts that said everyone EXCEPT FRPT would get the next few contracts. Thank God they're wrong.
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Mortimer
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After hearing the news of this last order, I started kicking myself because I sold out all my shares near yesterdays high. The afterhours indicated promise for the next day, but off the bat it has dropped 6-8percent? I'm trying to figure out what the market is seeing that I'm possibly missing.

Confuzzled.

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Livinonklendathu
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Nothing, gap and crap on contract news, did the same thing on the last big order.

--------------------
......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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cspaude
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Alright, so that sucks. I got slaughtered across the board today. Some articles are saying FRPT told the street they expect 2000 orders by the end of July and this small contract didn't sit well. Well, it's not the end of July yet.
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Livinonklendathu
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Back in today low 23's for a chunk.

--------------------
......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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Livinonklendathu
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.....and added some 22's today, strong close.

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......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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Slimpickens
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Force Protection Goes On The Offensive
Evelyn M. Rusli, 06.22.07, 5:15 PM ET

Force Protection





Force Protection is ready to battle for the lion's share of government contracts for armored vehicles. Within the next two weeks, the company is expected to announce the opening of new factories that will substantially boost its capacity.

According to a person familiar with the situation, the company’s new factories, which will open later this year, will focus on the Cheetahs, a new line of armored vehicles that are lighter and more mobile than Force Protection (nasdaq: FRPT - news - people ) 's popular Cougar line. Because of its size, the Cheetah is an attractive replacement candidate for the Humvee. The army has already indicated that a top priority is replacing the entire Humvee fleet— 17,700 vehicles— in Iraq with armored vehicles that can stand up better to mines, improvised explosive devices and rocket-propelled grenades.

Once the factories are up and running, Force Protection should be able to churn out 200 vehicles a month. That ramp-up will more than double Force Protection's current in-house capacity levels. For comparison, in 2006, Force Protection made 300 vehicles for the entire year.

Under the government's Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle program--which does not include the replacement of Humvees-- the Army is expected to award contracts to produce 23,000 armored vehicles, about 7,700 of which will be awarded this year. For a company that is competing with a handful of manufacturers to bag the most contracts, capacity level is crucial. Force Protection's vehicles have performed exceptionally well on the field but the government has repeatedly told manufacturers that the bulk of the orders will go to companies that can deliver quantity as well as quality.

And if Force Protection's game plan proceeds as expected, quantity is exactly what the military will get, and lots of it. According to C.E. Unterberg, Towbin analyst James McIlree, the company's existing facility in Ladson, South Carolina, which currently produces 100 Cougar vehicles a month, will ramp up to 200 a month by the end of this year. There are also murmurings that the company will open a factory this year that will produce Cougar and Cheetah vehicles.

With 7,000 MRAP orders expected for this year, and 8-9,000 anticipated in 2008, "Everyone is fighting for a piece of a pie that's expanding, and one way that you fight for a piece of that pie is by increasing your capacity to demonstrate to the government that you can make these vehicles," McIlree told Forbes.com Friday.

Force Protection currently has a 55% share of the orders, but its stock has rocked wildly in recent months as competitors nip at its heels. Even though Force Protection won another major contract on Tuesday--a $221 million Navy deal--the stock fell the next day, as some investors cashed out and some wondered why the contract wasn't larger.

The tumble continued on Friday, as the company's shares dropped 4.0%, or 95 cents, to $22.80 in afternoon trading on Friday.

Many analysts expect Force Protection to retain a large share of the market but other armored vehicle players, such as BAE Systems (other-otc: BAESY - news - people ) and Oshkosh Truck (nyse: OSK - news - people ), should also win major contracts. There is also the threat of unexpected dark horses, such as Navistar (other-otc: NAVZ - news - people ). Last month, the government awarded a $623 million contract to Navistar, which was widely considered an unlikely competitor. (See: "Competition Saps Force Protection." )

Force Protection remains optimistic that it will be able to ramp up production to meet the military's needs. It has a major partnership with General Dynamics (nyse: GD - news - people ) and subcontract deals with Armor Holdings (nyse: AH - news - people ) and Spartan Motors (nasdaq: SPAR - news - people )' chassis unit to manufacture vehicles.

Under a joint venture with General Dynamics, Force Protection will be able to deliver 12,100 vehicles between July 2007 and December 2008, Michael Aldrich, Force Protection's vice president for sales, told Forbes.com earlier this month. "We have reason to be wildly optimistic that we will receive more orders," he said. "We have passed the test, we have more than quadrupled production and we are ahead on all the contracts we are on right now."

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Slim

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Jo4321
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Back from camp. Dang that was an expensive week. Paper lost about $10,000 while I was away. (not just in FRPT, but in other holdings as well)

Jo

--------------------
"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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This sets a new standard in bias for Melissa Davis:
----------------------------------------

Rivals Burst Force Protection's Bubble
By Melissa Davis
Senior Writer
6/25/2007 11:03 AM EDT

Fierce competition for a big government armored-truck deal is dimming Force Protection's (FRPT) glow.

The Ladson, S.C., military-vehicle maker has been the biggest winner so far in the Army's mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles contract. But as the MRAP show goes on, Force Protection is sharing more and more of the spotlight with its rivals.

Navistar (NAVZ) -- once viewed as a minor character at best -- recently grabbed the largest single MRAP order placed so far. Other players like Armor Holdings (AH) and Oshkosh Truck (OSK) , as well as an upstart launched by Force Protection's founder, are poised to crowd the stage as well.

Wall Street is starting to worry about Force Protection shares, which have risen sharply over the last year. The company's current production capacity "is insufficient to supply the total MRAP requirements," Stanford analyst Josephine Millward stressed last month. "We continue to believe that the military will select multiple vendors for the program. ... In our view, this is positive news for the remaining bidders."

Millward's words should carry some weight. Last Tuesday, Millward predicted that Force Protection would field an order for around 500 MRAP vehicles -- or one-fourth the number the company was expecting. The military disclosed an order for 455 Force Protection vehicles that very night.

Force Protection investors, disturbed by the order's small size, hammered the company's stock and have kept it under pressure ever since. The shares, which peaked at $31 just before Navistar's surprising win, slipped 68 cents to $23.07 on Friday.

Now, Millward looks for two Force Protection rivals to land new contracts in a matter of days. Notably, Millward believes that General Dynamics (GD) -- Force Protection's joint-venture partner -- may have already passed performance tests and could soon snag a big contract on its own. Then, she feels that Armor or Oshkosh could announce a major award right after that.

Millward has hinted at a big win for Armor in particular. Last month, she predicted that Armor would score a "prime contract" for up to $500 million worth of vehicles -- or five times the company's own forecast -- under the MRAP program.

Millward downgraded Armor from buy to hold the same day, however, due to concerns about the company's valuation. The stock, while up 7 cents to $86.82 on Friday, has been flat since then.
Rising Stars

Meanwhile, Barrington Research analyst Walter Liptak this month reiterated his outperform rating on Oshkosh ahead of an expected MRAP deal.

Liptak looks for Oshkosh to secure an order for 1,000 MRAP trucks, worth up to $600 million, within the next week. All told, Liptak believes that Oshkosh will capture 20% of the entire MRAP market -- and, quite possibly, even more.

Together with privately held Protected Vehicles, a company run by Force Protection founder Garth Barrett, Oshkosh has already won a contract to supply the U.S. military with 100 Category I MRAP vehicles. But Oshkosh hopes to start selling the military some heavier -- and more expensive -- Category II vehicles as well.

Thus, Oshkosh has offered up its Category II Bushmaster for review. Alternatively, Oshkosh could choose to further capitalize on its partnership with Protected Vehicles and help supply that company's Category II Golans instead.

Earlier this month, Defense Industry Daily singled out the Golan for its unique capability to protect soldiers from "explosively formed penetrators" -- now viewed as even bigger threats than the improvised explosive devices that other MRAP vehicles effectively shield.

Protected Vehicles has, by itself, fielded an MRAP order for 60 Golans already. But the company foresees calls for additional Golans that it could use some help supplying.

"We would obviously like to have a partner," Barrett told TheStreet.com last week. "We can use Oshkosh; that's part of [the contract] . But that's not definite at the moment."

Protected Vehicles is watching to see if Oshkosh lands a Category II contract of its own. Meanwhile, the company is busy making preparations for the new MRAP business that could soon come its way.

In recent months, Protected Vehicles has added hundreds of employees -- including graduates of a welding school that it helps run -- and it is right now seeking to purchase a new building that will allow it to expand beyond the 600,000 square feet it already has.

"We have been putting the infrastructure in place to build serious numbers" of both Category I and Category II vehicles, Barrett explained. "We know the urgency of the need, and we have the desire to meet that need to the fullest extent possible. ... We are poised to supply."
Official Script

On the surface, at least, nearby Force Protection still displays plenty of confidence itself.

Force Protection's joint venture with General Dynamics has by now scored two large MRAP contracts that, together, are worth more than Navistar's big prize. Under the terms of that partnership, however, Force Protection is entitled to just half the proceeds. Bullish investors had assumed that there would be more to share.

Moreover, critics doubt that Force Protection will land another big order right now and question whether the company could fill it even if it did. They view shares of Force Protection, reflecting orders yet to come, as grossly overvalued, as a result.

Force Protection's outgoing chairman, Frank Kavanaugh, sure has been cashing in. Last month alone, Kavanaugh -- a frequent seller of Force Protection shares -- pocketed $10 million from company stock sales. He executed his last transaction on May 31, when Force Protection peaked just before news of Navistar's surprise award.

Then, with little warning, Kavanaugh suddenly resigned from Force Protection's board at the company's annual shareholder meeting last week. In response, Force Protection celebrated its swelling market value -- which soared from $1 million to more than $1.5 billion during Kavanaugh's reign -- as a "remarkable" achievement on his way out the door.

Going forward, other big investors could start dumping stock as well. Notably, by the end of this month, Force Protection expects to file an overdue registration statement for 13 million shares of stock that it issued in a private placement late last year. Owners of that stock -- including value investors who have seen their shares double already -- should be free to cash out after that happens.

Still, despite his own stock sales, Kavanaugh has promised even better days ahead.

"I look forward to continuing my support of Force Protection as an involved investor," he recently stated. "The organization's leaders are capable of taking Force Protection to new heights."

--------------------
"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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minkybodl
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I notice she mentions the price on Friday, but omits saying anything about the record volume of 12.5 mil shares going into the Russell 3000.
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Livinonklendathu
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The wrong price too, close Friday was 23.84. I got out this morning, gonna see where it settles the next couple days.

--------------------
......in Psychiatry circles it's known as a "warning sign"

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cspaude
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Thoroughly confused here.
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minkybodl
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http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2860798&C=america


U.S. Lawmakers Jab DoD Official About MRAPs

By WILLIAM MATTHEWS


Two senior House Democrats accused the Pentagon of failing to provide life-saving mine-resistant vehicles to U.S. troops in Iraq. During a June 26 Armed Services Committee hearing, Gordon England, deputy defense secretary, vehemently denied the charge.
During a testy exchange with England, Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii, said a request from troops in Iraq for vehicles built to withstand roadside bomb blasts appears to have been ignored by the Bush administration.
The request was not ignored, an indignant England retorted.
“It wasn’t in the budget,” Abercrombie shot back. The 2008 budget request the Pentagon sent to Congress in February contained no money for Army and Marine Corps mine resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles, he said.
The Defense Department was in the process of buying 3,000 MRAPs, England said.
“But the request was for 6,000,” Abercrombie replied.
Ultimately, the House added $4 billion to the budget for buying MRAPs.
Later, the Army increased its request to more than 17,000 MRAPs that would cost $18 billion.
“I wish we could legislate some sense of urgency,” said Rep. Gene Taylor, D-Miss.
Senior military officials have repeatedly been slow and even seemingly reluctant to buy protective equipment for troops in Iraq, Taylor said. He cited body armor early in the war, and later requests for armored Humvees and electronic jammers to thwart roadside bombs.
Taylor said Pentagon officials testified to Congress on each of these items that not all troops in Iraq needed them.
“People have died needlessly,” Taylor said.
That assertion incensed England.
“That is an inappropriate comment,” he snapped. “People have not died needlessly.”
England said the Defense Department has shipped to Iraq six varieties of armored Humvees and developed a wide variety of jammers to counter roadside bombs.
“Why did it take until this committee passed $4 billion for the secretary of the Army to say he needed $18 billion” for MRAPs? Taylor asked.
Taylor said senior Pentagon leaders are making the same mistake on MRAPs that they made on body armor, armored Humvees and jammers. “You’re dragging your feet,” he said.
England angrily denied it, but insisted that he could not discuss MRAP details with the Armed Services Committee in open session.
The quarrelsome confrontation occurred during a hearing on how to improve management of the Department of Defense, an enormous bureaucracy with an annual budget of more than $700 billion, $1.4 trillion in assets, $2 trillion in liabilities, more than 3 million employees and 3,000 locations worldwide.
Committee members agreed with England that the department is overburdened with congressionally imposed regulations.
For example, there are 219 regulations that apply just to flag-rank officers, England said.
“If every time we passed a new regulation we did away with two [old regulations] we might make some progress,” said Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md.
“Supply them to the committee,” said Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn. “Perhaps we can whittle them down.”
Asked whether the Defense Department is more efficient now than it was in 2001 when President George W. Bush took office, England said he didn’t know. He was Navy secretary then and didn’t become acting deputy defense secretary until May 2005.
England added that the Defense Department is more efficient now than it was in 2005.
However, the department is not making rapid progress on a key congressional benchmark: the ability to produce “clean audits,” or documented spending trails.
For years, the department has not been able to produce comprehensive accountings of its money and property. In 2005, Pentagon officials proclaimed progress when they were able to produce clean audits for six of 61 auditable sub agencies. They predicted clean audits of all sub agencies by 2008.
So far, though, only seven sub agencies have achieved clean audits. It will be eight to 10 years before all Pentagon agencies achieve the clean audit goal, said Paul Brinkley, deputy undersecretary of defense for business transformation

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Ace of Spades
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In my opinion I think the Slow stochastics(27,33)and RSI (35.9)can go a a tad bit lower...But also if you look at the volum by price bars...we are around the price where the most buying took place!!!

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In my opinion I think the Slow stochastics(27,33)and RSI (35.9)can go a a tad bit lower...But also if you look at the volum by price bars...we are around the price where the most buying took place!!!

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cspaude
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Thoroughly confused.....but I like it!! Up 7%.
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Jo4321
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Force Protection Inc. Is Rebounding

Wednesday, June 27, 2007; Posted: 12:15 PM



(RTTNews) - Force Protection Inc. (FRPT | charts | news | PowerRating) has been losing ground for the last week and dropped below its 50 day moving average. Today the stock gapped down at the open however has been moving steadily higher. The stock is at the highs of the session trading up by $1.07 at $22.77.

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http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/MOMENTUM/567720/

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minkybodl
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News and a video of testing on the Cheetah,

http://www.wjbf.com/midatlantic/jbf/news_index.apx.-content-articles-JBF-2007-06 -26-0051.html


Tuesday, Jun 26, 2007 - 05:52 PM
PhotoVideo
"We received a lot of very high level interest from our current military customers for the Cheetah, and we're in support for however they want to prioritize the asset for national security," said Force Protection's Mike Aldrich.

By George Eskola
E-mail
This "Cheetah" was on the prowl.

It's the latest vehicles from the Charleston, South Carolina, area company called Force Protection, and this prototype is catching the eyes of the military for possible use in Iraq.

"We received a lot of very high level interest from our current military customers for the Cheetah, and we're in support for however they want to prioritize the asset for national security," said Force Protection's Mike Aldrich.

The company unveiled this prototype at its testing range in Edgefield, South Carolina.

Where it's 30 caliber machine gun blasted at targets.

Force Protection has joined with another company, Kongsberg Defense, for the vehicle's state of the art sighting system.

It employees cameras that make things a lot safer when taking on targets that can shoot back.

"The major difference it takes the solder inside the vehicle so he operates the weapon in the security of the vehicle if he's attacked," said Knut Saeter, Kongsberg Defense.

And while both these companies are experienced in the defense industry, this is high tech equipment. That's why this testing area, in Edgefield County, is so important. You got to put these things through their paces.

"This is an M-12 block of composition C-4 high explosive, we make our own land mines here," said Keith Williams, of Force Protection, who placed the bombs for the explosion test.

And his home-made bomb was put about twenty feet away from the Cheetah, and set-off.

The explosion was huge; the Cheetah was dirtied, but otherwise undamaged.

The company says it has the best vehicle protection system in the world, and if, and when, this vehicle makes it into combat, that could mean the world for a solider in battle.

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cspaude
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Off 7%+ today because BAE systems got a 441 vehicle contract?!? Lame. That tells me if anyone gets a bigger contract, FRPT will get absolutely slaughtered. Today was a complete overreaction.
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kywee
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Yea the way I see it is people are still day trading this thing.

I might jump in EOD if it remains low. I'll look for a gap up Monday and a possible 10% gain.

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minkybodl
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General Dynamics Delivers First MRAP Vehicles from Alabama


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070629/nef061.html?.v=7

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Jo4321
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And Melissa Davis again.
---------------------------------

Manufacturing
Force Protection Treads Water
By Melissa Davis
Senior Writer
6/29/2007 3:00 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/manufacturing/10365721.html


Force Protection (FRPT) is holding its breath for a last-minute victory lap.

The deadline for the South Carolina-based defense contractor to win another big contract is looming, since the U.S. military is set to finish handing out its first round of awards for Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected vehicles by the end of the month. The company has long been favored to dominate the MRAP program but has seen rivals , such as Navistar (NAVZ.PK) , chipping away at its lead.

Indeed, late Thursday, none other than scandalized BAE Systems -- suspected of bribing foreign officials for other military business -- claimed one of the remaining first-round MRAP awards for itself. A U.S.-based subsidiary of the British defense giant landed a $212 million deal to supply 441 MRAP vehicles for the war on terror.

The award came just days after BAE revealed that the Department of Justice has launched a criminal probe of the company. Justice officials suspect that BAE may have funneled money to a Saudi prince in exchange for his help in securing an $86 billion weapons deal. The company has denied any wrongdoing.

BAE's new MRAP order took a toll on Force Protection in the meantime. Force Protection's stock, pressured this month by mounting competitive threats, fell more than 5% to $20.47 -- an eight-week low -- earlier Friday.

Force Protection fans remain upbeat nonetheless. Thomas Weisel Partners analyst David Gremmels on Thursday treated the BAE order as an expected development, despite the company's regulatory problems, and predicted another competitor win -- possibly by rival Oshkosh (OSK) -- as well. But he still feels that Force Protection will control at least half of the MRAP program in the end.

Gremmels has an overweight rating on Force Protection's stock. His firm makes a market in the company's securities.

Even now, Gremmels notes, Force Protection still boasts 48% of the MRAP orders placed so far. Navistar commands a smaller 33% market share, despite winning the single-largest MRAP contract handed out to date, and BAE now follows with 14% of the current MRAP awards. For the time being, Gremmels' calculations show, Oshkosh still trails as a distant fourth with just 4% of the MRAP orders.

But Stanford Group analyst Josephine Millward feels that equation could rapidly change. She, too, believes that Oshkosh could soon emerge as a bigger player in the MRAP game. Meanwhile, she questions whether Force Protection will field all of the new orders that the company is gearing up to land.

"In order to meet this aggressive production schedule, FRPT would require another order of 1,300 units by July 1, another 1,000 units by October and 6,000 units by November," Millward wrote on Monday. "As we said before, it is possible for Force Protection to receive another 1,000 units-plus order if the fourth company does not pass the performance test.

"But we put the odds at less than 50%."

Like many, Miller suspects that Oshkosh -- which is partnering with a company run by Force Protection's founder -- could land the next big deal instead. Notably, Oshkosh partner Protected Vehicles boasts an offering that is uniquely capable of surviving so-called "explosively formed penetrators." Those weapons are now viewed as even bigger threats than the improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, that other MRAP vehicles effectively shield.

Protected Vehicles is already providing the military with dozens of its Golan trucks in response. But the company hopes to supply even more Golans, possibly with help from Oshkosh or another partner, going forward.

BAE's new contract could actually signal good news for the company. Interestingly, experts note, the award included no calls for BAE's RG-33L -- a rival to Protected Vehicles' Golan -- despite high expectations for the vehicle.

"A recent contract has put (BAE) solidly back into the competition, including a couple of promising niche orders," Defense Industry Daily wrote on Friday. "Nevertheless, the curious (omission) of the mainstream RG-33L orders remains one of the salient features of this contract."

To be fair, Force Protection has monopolized orders for Category II MRAP vehicles, which include both the Golan and the RG-33L, placed by the military so far. Indeed, based on Gremmels' estimates, Force Protection has sold five times as many Category II vehicles as all of the company's competitors combined. But Protected Vehicles, at least, has been taking steps to widen its own share.

"We have been putting the infrastructure in place to build serious numbers" of both Category I and Category II vehicles, Protected Vehicles CEO Garth Barrett told TheStreet.com earlier this month. "We know the urgency of the need, and we have the desire to meet that need to the fullest extent possible ... We are poised to supply."

--------------------
"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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cspaude
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On the front page of USA Today:

Army gets big boost in safer vehicles

Look for her to run big today!!! It didn't mention FRPT, but what company does everyone think of when it comes to MRAPs?

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