posted
I don't consider it dilution when the company increases its worth by hundreds of millions of dollars. And lets keep in mind that even IF there are 500M A/S that doesn't mean they are all O/S. Also, the company has stated before that a lot of the increase to o/s recently is from using these shares as collateral.
Posts: 201 | From: GA | Registered: Dec 2006
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posted
Maybe. I put up $550 this morning(Thursday), by wensday/next week I'm hoping to get $400 for the shares. Thats only a $150 loss. which makes 3 X's I lost in this co in one yr. 3 strikes, I'm out. lol
Or am i "The Curse", as some say...as its starting to tank.. ??
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
NO new bottom....hope for a double bottom with big bounce...(chart) if it goes to much under .04 thats not good
Posts: 360 | From: black hawk , colorado | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Well if they don't explain their share increase (have not verified) you may just be lucky to get $350... BUT if they close this deal (from PR today)
This project is expected to generate $400M in revenue over the next 3 years and is expected to add $100+M to Cal-Bay's bottom line upon completion."
you could actually make money Posts: 360 | From: black hawk , colorado | Registered: Dec 2005
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quote:Originally posted by surgeon of steel: you may just be lucky to get $350...
Yes I know. I said hopeful to get $350. I know another stock here that diluted and in just one week lost 35% and bought it at near bottom IOW dilution is really bad for traders. I plan to be much more careful in my trades from now on...I said this at the start of 07
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:Originally posted by JBURNS: No, we're not going sub penny. Where do yo come up with this BS?
how do you know what speed they have the dilution machine on? here's a co with news it will have a $100++ M revenue, biggest in its history and she drops 20% next day. Maybe not subpenny, but we may see 3 cents soon. heck maybe even 2 cents.... just my 2 cents, nothing to get upset about. I could be wrong, I'm not bashing.
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
I'm not upset, I just thought it was a little absurd for you to be talking about going sub penny when we are holding pretty firm today at .04, which is quite a long ways from sub penny.
I'm not pretending to understand exactly what's going on in their heads either, I just like to think they have enough sense to keep it from getting that bad.
Posts: 201 | From: GA | Registered: Dec 2006
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posted
yes, the sub penny comment was ludicrous. What you said is much more accurate, its stable at .04+. Just so long as they keep the dilution machine in the closet, we will all do fine. I've just had a bad experience recently with a stock under super heavy dilution. We all know the symbol. Hopefully we can get back about the 5 cent level next week so I can see some green. I'm in at 5.3
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
California developer to start 177-acre, residential and golf course in N. Lafayette By Bob Moser The (Lafayette) Daily Advertiser
A California company announced this morning that it will begin developing a 177-acre, mixed use residential and commercial golf course in north Lafayette.
The development will be on West Pon De Mouton Road and Acadian Hills Lane on the city’s north side.
Cal-Bay International, of Carlsbad, Calif., said the development will include anywhere from 500 to 1,000 single-family homes, along with a 10-acre commercial/retail facility.
The project was granted preliminary approval by the Lafayette Planning Commission in August 2005, said Sharon Wagner, planner II with the Department of Planning, Zoning and Codes.
During that time, no objections were made by outsiders to the project, and the Planning Commission didn’t require any changes to the Cal-Bay proposal
Posts: 360 | From: black hawk , colorado | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
We know this already, why post old news????
If CBAY falls into the .03's next week, its solid proof they have a dilution machine running. Agree?
And if it falls into the /03's there is no amount of news/fluff that will save this ship from sinking, only a agressive buy back. btw didn't they say months ago they would buy back. Well????? ... Ahh flippers are gone, now moving north. Here we go. I see an upswing in the making.
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:Originally posted by paulbest: We know this already, why post old news????
If CBAY falls into the .03's next week, its solid proof they have a dilution machine running. Agree?
And if it falls into the /03's there is no amount of news/fluff that will save this ship from sinking, only a agressive buy back. btw didn't they say months ago they would buy back. Well????? ... Ahh flippers are gone, now moving north. Here we go. I see an upswing in the making.
yeah but this was not from the co. just sharing info
Posts: 360 | From: black hawk , colorado | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
I just wrote the co asking for their CURRENT share structure. Yahoo has it pegged at 42M o/s and float at 33M. Just waiting on their response. Correcting: NOT moving north, very little support at the .042 level. We may yet see .03's next week. Makes absolutely no sense to me why the selling/dumping. Some dilution must be going on here.
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
Tim Garlin at CBAY just wrote, "Yahoo is from Sept/06, Currently 216M o/s and 43M of the 217M is restricted."
Not bad for a co about to have 100M revenue + other projects in the works. One more news next few weeks and hopefully we can see a turn around in investor confidence. Remember this stock traded in the 20 cent range with hardly any projects on the table. True the shres were only 42M at that time. Still this will be a major play in 2007 imho.
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
Glad to see you're being more optimistic. I really think with some patience we'll reallize our potential here.
Posts: 201 | From: GA | Registered: Dec 2006
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posted
Agree, one more news on share retirement will send this baby flying. I have $550 in, and need to get another 41K next week, hopefully in these low .04's. If it moves back into the .05's I'll only get $500 worth. Trying to limit my risks.
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
Well let me ask CBAY holders here a question. Do you feel/think/hope...lol...this .04 is THE OFFICIAL bottom? Or is it possible we may see even lower trading levels next week , and week after? I feel this monday will be a very important trading day for CBAY. If green, this is a good omen. If red, then I feel we will in fact lower trading levels, UNTIL we get a news release saying "We bought more of our shares back". IOW investor confidence is shot and feel its over bloated. And they would like to see 30M s/o. How about a reverse split? Is this possible? Thoughts?
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
I did some figuring in my head last night after I got done huffing over the unannounced A/S increase.
I decided to double my position today because of it. Here are my thoughts.
We knoew dilution had been happening over the last week. Reported O/S as of Wednesday was 186 mil.
Then Thursday came with the extra shares hitting the market and the A/S increase.
Bad from first glance.
Then I looked and saw that the restricted share count increased from 18 mil to 45 mil. That accounts for 27 mil of the extra shares right there! And those are not traded. Given record volume yesterday (over 10 Mil) and the 5 Mil traded today it is hard to believe there is much left yet to be diluted and we were able to hold our head above the .04 mark at close which signals a reconfirmation of support.
Now think about what we have ahead of us.
We have a PR coming soon saying the Lafeyette deal is inked and work has started.
We have a PR coming sometime in the next two weeks or so (from Investor Relations) explaining share structure.
We have 4th quarter results due soon which should show added assets and increasing revenues.
Rumors are we have at least one other deal about to be disclosed in the coming weeks.
AND, what I am really interested in and continuing to invest because of, we have a conference call happening on the 7th of February by the company.
We all know what type of assets this company has. How many folks do you think are going to hear all those numbers and get excited to find a company so undervalued?
I just added another 70k at .04 and am expecting at least 50% return inside 3 weeks.
The Bigfoot All IMO
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
I like what you are saying bigfoot. Think i will hold as well. I hear that some of that news may be out sooner than you think. I say .08 next week(imo) Posts: 251 | From: nashville | Registered: Jan 2007
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posted
Wait aminute, I'm slow. Please go back over the dates and share count more carefully. Today i wrote and Tim said as of TODAY CBAY has 216M o/s of that # 43M are restricted, so there are.....173 o/s. Now as you say there's alot going on in the pipeline, this co has news about every 10 days. Eventually something's gotta give = investor confidence will go up. OR are we dreamers and investors are scared as heel of this co for going from 30M to 200M shares in a few months...or maybe some are MAD as hell they did this DASTERDLY act.?? btw IF news comes out , as you mention , during this next 3 weeks (Feb 7 conference call) rumors of YET another deal...and we do not see some green WITH SUPPORT, IOW a healthy growth in price...then maybe this is yet another co that screwed itself with that most EVIL of all things in stocks...DILUTION. I'm thinking now of ETIM and RSHN. I would had adised you to go more gently, IOW maybe 20K today and add next week 10K at a time, on any dips. Cause you DO NOT KNOW IF .04 is the BRAND NEW bottom. Co's that have a dilution machine are always much greater risky than one without dilution. jmho
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:Originally posted by THE DUKE: I like what you are saying bigfoot. Think i will hold as well. I hear that some of that news may be out sooner than you think. I say .08 next week(imo)
We have to get out the .04's first before we start thinking higher. Like I say lets be happy if we see some green next week, lets break into the .05's. Then if the following weeks news is substantial, the share increase will be totally justified to fund these moster projects, and we'll see healthy gains. Heavy dilution scares the hell out of investors. Its like "Do not Touch" is written all over the thing afterwards.
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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It is a chance like any stock but I am feeling fairly confident.
***My picture of the situation could be skewed easily though if further massive dilution hits the floor. Fair Warning***
You wanted me to go over the dates of the share count more carefully.
There was a confirmed share count on January 4th of 116mil o/s common.
On January 11th it was confirmed that the share count common had gone to 156 mil mostly from conversions of preferred B and C shares.
***Also on January 11th it was also confirmed that 31 mil preferred shares were retired with the dissolved relation of COBS. On this date it was confirmed that 18.5 mil of the common shares were restricted leaving 137.5 trading o/s.
On Thursday Jan 18th it was confirmed that a/s had increased from 200mil to 500 mil and that the o/s had increased to 216mil with 43 mil restricted. The same internet posters who confirmed the 216 o/s Thursday stated that Wednesday the o/s had been confirmed at 186 mil. (Not on this board. )
So! You have an increase in o/s by 100 mil over a 1 month period. Looks ugly! Then you look closer.
You see that 30 mil of the increase was conversion of preferred shares which were matched by a 30 million preferred share retirement.
Not so bad.
Then you see that 43 Mil of the common O/S is restricted and non-tradable for at least a year.
Hmmm...That’s not so bad either.
All of a sudden that 100 mil share dilution over 1 month is really looking a lot more like 30 Mil share dilution and there are rumors around that when IR reports on share structure it will be understood that the dilution experience was necessary to secure funding for the 400 Mil Lafayette deal that could turn this company into a real REIT with a shot at hitting that AMEX. Gee…that don’t seem so bad either…
Next up...let's look at that chart a bit. Back after these commercials.
BF
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
BF I see you do your DD's. But bottom line is what Tim wrote there are 216M - 43 restricted = 173 out. Judging from your dates and #'s, in just a few weeks the o/s shares jumped. Much more than i am confortable with. Especially when they wrote saying they are in a buyback phase. Now I agree if they need the funds to make this huge deal, it might be worth it. But in investors eyes any dilution is The Evil Thing. I wish we had discussed things before you made the 70K share jump. Hey its not like you can't get out next week. Watch it, if you do not see momentum, protect your capital. My gut feeling after reviewing the notes, especailly just now reading your post, well its not the best of feelings. Of course feelings are not facts. Just don't feel good about this one. There will be others next week that may be a better return for a one day "get in'get out" with some profits. I have a cash acct and bought this with unsettled funds. i can sell on Wensday. Which as of now plan to do, and would sell on monday if i could. I recently got burned in another PK that had dilution, and I bought LOW!!!!. I'm going to be very careful with PK's. I missed other opportunities in OB's this week. No need to jump into "just any old PK".
-------------------- Do not invest on any of my suggestions Posts: 1215 | From: baton rouge | Registered: Apr 2006
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My first clue that a reversal is brewing is looking at the RSI. At the begining of January the RSI broke the 50 line for the first time since this stock stared it's decline.
Secondly look at the CMF. We had a large negative position in the CMF during a majority of the slide. Once we hit .04 we were able to combat that and even go positive for a while. Though we have returned to a negative position notice that it travels just under the line rather than gapping down.
Let's look closer at the last couple days. You will notice the CMF dropped yesterday despite the record trading level. That would not make sense until you add in the dilution that happened yesterday. Now look at today's trading. The CMF climbed measurably. This shows us that, though there may have been some leftover dilution, a majority of today's activity was from investors. That gives a good signal that we will not be continually diluted beyond our ability to handle in the near future.
Now...look at the chart itself and the candles. I believe what we have shaping up here is a Triple Bottom Chart.
A triple bottom pattern is described as :
quote: A triple bottom pattern displays three distinct minor lows at approximately the same price level. Like the head and shoulders bottom, the triple bottom is a reversal pattern.
The only thing which differentiates a triple bottom from a head and shoulders bottom is the lack of a "head" between the two shoulders. The triple bottom illustrates a downtrend in the process of becoming an uptrend. It is, therefore, vital to the validity of the pattern that it commence with prices moving in a downtrend.
The triple bottom pattern is composed of three sharp lows, all at about the same price level. Prices fall to a support level, rise, fall to that support level again, rise, and finally fall, returning to the support level for a third time before beginning an upward climb. In the classic triple bottom, the upward movement in the price marks the beginning of an uptrend.
I believe that on November 27th the first of our three bottoms took place resulting in a rise of .01. Over the next month we drifted back down and on December 18/19 we hit the second bottom sending us up to test .05+ once again. I discount the bottom at .04 on December 26 from the pattern due to the gap down that happened that day and the immediate return to .05+ levels on the subsequent day.
Since that time we have been drifting downward and are testing the bottom range of.04 once again for a third bottom.
Technically speaking we could be looking at a good breakout and the final bottom of a Triple Bottom Pattern.
Technically speaking our CMF is in a very good position considering the recent dilution.
Technically we have had a UHV day (unusually high volume) and many believe the rule that volume precedes price.
Financially speaking we are already undervalued compared to the asset value of this company and once we have the signing of the Lafayette property we will be even more undervalued.
And speaking from the momo point of view we have three separate news events that we are sure of coming up within the next month and rumors of others to boot.
These are my reasons for feeling confident in my choice to take a larger position.
My price point is .046. I have over 100k shares. I have made my decision and I am telling you why I made my decision.
I am not telling you how you should make yours.
GLTA. and G'night.
The Bigfoot
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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Just read your post. Yes, dilution throws off the best laid plans. If they continue diluting at the pace they did the last month that will outweigh everything I have just said.
I tend to believe however that the diluting they did this month was for a specific purpose revolving around the Lafayette property and that once that purpose has been achieved the stock will respond. I am "trading" (or insert word betting) on the deal being signed and no further dilution being necessary. We shall see.
As to your suggestions...you bet. I will be watching this one VERY closely.
Bye the bye, if it makes a difference to you, CBAY is not a pinky. It has fulfilled the requirements necessary to continue trading on the OTCBB and the E has been removed from the symbol.
BF
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Bigfoot you've made your case. It's all a gamble but big money isn't made without one. As they say you can't win if you don't buy a ticket. I'm with ya.
Lock
-------------------- Let's Go METS!!! Posts: 3317 | From: CT | Registered: Dec 2006
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posted
Press Release Source: Cal-Bay International, Inc.
Cal-Bay International, Statement of Clarification Monday January 22, 8:31 am ET Cal-Bay International, Inc. Announces Statement of Clarification Regarding Outstanding Shares and Assets
CARLSBAD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cal-Bay International (OTCBB:CBAY - News) is making the following disclosures in order to clarify and update shareholders as to the current status of the company's common stock capitalization and asset base.
As of this date there are approximately 216 million shares of common stock issued and outstanding held by approximately 2500 shareholders. Of this total approximately 40% are currently being used for collateral for a series of loans that are being used primarily for real estate acquisition purposes. As such these shares are not in the float and are intended to be retired once the loans have been repaid.
The recently announced increase in the authorized share structure is intended to provide the company with flexibility in its pursuit of additional real estate acquisitions. It has not been undertaken with the intention of adding unnecessary dilution to the company's capitalization, but instead provides Cal-Bay with viable means to enter into accretive acquisitions with a currency that may not necessarily be dilutive in the long run, as the shares become retired upon their release from collateralization. Management has determined that this is the best way for it to be able to attract financing for the purpose of enhancing shareholder valuation through acquisition, as it works toward the longer-term goal of building a valuable portfolio of residential and commercial real estate assets in growing markets.
Cal-Bay International currently owns approximately $100M in real estate assets, with a retained equity (book) value of approximately $40M. An additional $60M in acquisitions are currently pending in escrow or in contract, in addition to the recently announced Louisiana property. As acquisitions continue to close, the book value of the company should continue to increase significantly, as the company's past two years track record has disclosed, thereby adding additional shareholder value to the company.
FORWARD LOOKING SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: To the extent that this release discusses any expectations concerning future plans, financial results or performance, such statements are forward-looking within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof and reflect only management's belief and expectations based upon presently available information. These statements, and other forward-looking statements, are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company assumes no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this release.
Contact: Cal-Bay International, Inc. Tim Garlin, Public Relations, 760-930-0100 Fax: 760-930-0200 IR*calbayinternational.com www.calbayinternational.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Cal-Bay International, Inc.
Posts: 201 | From: GA | Registered: Dec 2006
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