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Congrats early longs....We have only just begun! Once in awhile check in on the RB board...I don't post here as frequently....But GREAT things are in front of us Posts: 26 | Registered: Aug 2005
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Now, who was it that got in the day it first went up...first day of the news? You know, back when it was trading for .005? And it didn't start going up til 2 hours later after the news came out. And then it went up 400%.
Who was that? Do you still hold shares?
-------------------- May your trading build your character as well as your portfolio. Posts: 1763 | Registered: Jan 2005
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I got some of my holdings before that wonderful day (up 400% and then some). Of course, i also got some at 0.05 about 14 or 15 months ago i think at 0.05. The symbol was still CXIN back then. Now i regret selling some back in December for tax purposes. Oh well. Hopefully this will go up 25% per day for the rest of my life. Ahhh, who needs Ed McMahon when they have NORD?
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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I have some questions to anyone who can provide answers, preferably before Monday.
On the NORD website there are two tables: planned production located on the technical data page, and Financial Projections on the Investor Relations page.
If you divide the sales figure for each year by the number of barrels of oil you will come up with less than $32/barrel for each of the years 2006 through 2010.
I realize that oil isn't the only source of sales but this fact should actually cause my calculations to be higher than reality.
Now for the questions:
Anyone know how old that financial projections table is? Maybe it's from 3 years ago?
Do oil companies sell oil in bulk for less than what i see as the price per barrel? Price per barrel is in the $65 range so is there any way our oil is going to sell for 1/2 that?
I suppose the projection numbers could be wrong but i actually put more faith in those than the financials. Given this, i guess i'm concluding that the financial are actually very very low estimates (worst case scenario maybe).
Thoughts?
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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its nothing but good from hear imho you will see a steady rise in the pps on monday who knows where this will take us and i know we will be fully reporting in october i can't say how but i was told it will happen. good luck early longs as 2create would say. i am going to pick up more on monday before the word really gets out. glta
Posts: 6008 | From: phoenix az | Registered: Mar 2005
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Bond006 ...nock it off! I'm not done buying yet either! Shadow-do on RB was hitting it pretty hard also on Friday too...I was able to free up some cash near eod..got another 150k+ or so @ .03
Hawaii, First, I agree that the tables are very conservative estimates. And yes, they do have other revenue-generating subsidiaries such as there Bulk processing plant, tanker farms and transportation services. Second, you must understand the way Russia Oil stocks are taxed. Current regulation allow for Russian producers to keep only 10% over the 'Normalized' rates; which are currently set at $29/Brl. HOWEVER allow me to post some RECENT GREAT NEWS regarding this topic here, where by NEW proposed legislation will be INCREASING this ,normalized' amount to $37. : More awsome News! Russian Normalized rate inceases from $29 to $37/Brl!
Russian Oil and Gas Change in oil price view: still an attractive value proposal ! Significant upgrade to oil price forecasts . . . We have increased our Urals oil price forecasts to $52.1/bbl in 2005, $56.8/bbl in 2006, and $58.8/bbl in 2007. We have also revised our normalized price up $8 to $37.3/bbl. We see neither a slowdown in demand nor an increase in supply sufficient to bring prices down. ! . . . results in considerable earnings revisions . . . The change has a 10%/38%/75% impact on the sector's earnings in 2005E/06E/07E, respectively. High-cost, low-margin companies are the largest beneficiaries of the upgrade, with their earnings more than doubling in 2007E. ! . . . and a 4%-49% positive impact on valuations Among the first tiers, Tatneft and Gazprom see the highest change in valuation, while Novatek, Transneft, and Surgutneftegaz see the lowest. The latter, although directly exposed to the oil business, has almost a third of its value in cash and noncore investments, which do not change with the oil price. ! We upgrade Sibneft to Buy 2 Our top picks among the first-tiers remain Lukoil, TNK and Transneft. We upgrade Sibneft from Neutral 2 to Buy 2. Despite its disappointing operating performance and the takeover risk, the company remains a significant free cashflow generator. The increasing value of its stake in Slavneft appears to be overlooked. The stock's notable underperformance justifies the upgrade, we believe. Table 1: Price target and rating changes Price target, $ Rating Old New % chg. Old New Gazprom ADS 44.1 60.9 38% Neutral 2 Neutral 2 Lukoil 51.2 68.1 33% Buy 1 Buy 1 Sibneft 3.28 4.24 29% Neutral 2 Buy 2 Surgutneftegaz 0.88 1.04 18% Neutral 2 Neutral 2 TNK 6.10 7.84 29% Buy 2 Buy 2 Tatneft 2.58 3.53 37% Buy 2 Buy 2 Yukos 0.72 0.72 0% Neutral 2 Neutral 2 Transneft 1,925 2,069 7% Buy 2 Buy 2 Bashneft 8.80 13.08 49% Buy 2 Buy 2 Megionneftegaz 38.2 47.5 24% Buy 2 Buy 2 Ritek 4.74 6.59 39% Neutral 2 Neutral 2 Novatek 2,410 2,515 4% Neutral 2 Neutral 2 Source: Brunswick UBS estimates -------end copy-------
Don't you just LOVE when a plan comes together!? Posts: 26 | Registered: Aug 2005
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come together you are not kidding 2create not only price per barrel in russia world conditions and looks like even the weather to boot. i have a hard time with that one but it is even going to throw more attention on oil stocks imho which can't hurt a bit. along with price per gallon at the pumps. so even the delay looks like it was benificial. here we go monday is going to be interesting to say the least. when i say price per barrell in russia i mean the russian tax structure
[ September 24, 2005, 22:00: Message edited by: bond006 ]
Posts: 6008 | From: phoenix az | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
I hate being the one to point this out but the weather and world events doesn't benefit this company. 2Create is correct-- all "windfall profit" goes to the Russian government to be placed in the "Stabilization Fund". This means that when the price of oil rises, the company won't be better off because that increase is more for the Russian government. Unfortunately, it could be worse for the company if oil prices rise because when prices go up everyone tries to reduce their usage or find alternatives. While this may not be immediate for oil, it will happen eventually.
I really wish i knew this before I put so much of my portfolio into this. I'm still expecting this to be my best performing stock over the next week, month, year, but i'm not as excited as I once was. I'm still very excited about the potential here, just not super duper excited.
I wonder how many others are unaware of the oil pricing rules in Russia. This may cause our stock to experience a bubble and this bubble could pop when enough investors find out about the pricing.
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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Hawaii, relax... Didn't you read the news release that I included? You should be just as if not more excited. The current legislation changes taking affect are very beneficial to all Russian Oil stocks Not to mention the proposed tax incentives/beaks for developing new fields, that is also on the table. This is a Reserves game as much as it is an earnings game. You have NOTHING to be unexcited about! Look at LUKOIL HOLDING CO SP/ADR (LUKOY) Look at PETROKAZAKHSTAN INC (NYSE:PKZ) Look at SURGUTNEFTEGAZ SPON ADR (SGTZY) Not to mention other sources of revenue, like bulk processing, storage, and transportation services. Russia is even the TOP PICK by CSFB! See below for this recent upgraded report! copy: ANALYST VIEW - Russia is top pick for CSFB Friday, September 23, 2005 02:32:00 PM Credit Suisse First Boston has said on Friday its top pick the region has become Russia, while it gave 'Underweight' rating on Hungary versus the MSCI EMF (Morgan Stanley Capital International's Emerging Markets Free index).
CSFB upgraded Russia within a pan-emerging markets portfolio to a 20% overweight stance versus MSCI EMF and set a new 12-month Russia RTS index target of 1,100, representing 14.6% potential upside from current levels.
CSFB said the upgrade was based on the following eight reasons:
CSFB recently upgraded the pan-emerging markets Energy and Materials sectors to a 10% overweight stance in addition to their overall year-end target price for the MSCI EMF to 650. CSFB's oil and gas team raised its oil price forecasts The forward curve for oil delivery in three years has flattened significantly over the course of 2005 and steel prices look set to rebound on the latest inventory data. The earnings outlook for the Russian market has recovered to above-average EMF levels, with strong earnings breadth momentum looking forward. CCFB reduced its cost of equity assumption by 100 basis points to 10% (the two-year average), in the wake of the YUKOS affair and reining in of arbitrary back taxation. Russia continues to trade on discounted valuations to the rest of emerging markets. There is ample liquidity in the market as a result of petrodollar inflows. Emerging market equity funds remain on average strongly underweight Russia (24%). ----end copy-----
If that is not enough evidence, then...you know what to do. I for one will be HAPPY to pick up your shares. ;]
Posts: 26 | Registered: Aug 2005
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Thanks 2create. I did miss the news you posted about CSFB, though i don't put much faith in these firms I do realize others do so that means Russian stocks will rise.
I'm 100% sure that i'm not selling any shares until at least a week after the name/symbol change. Actually i may try to pick up some more shares before that happens as I think with the word "oil" in the company name we will show up on more investors' radar when they search for oil companies to invest in.
I'm fairly sure I will hold 90% of my shares 1 month from now. There may come a time where i'll take my investment out and let the profit ride. Time will tell.
Thanks again. Now go get some sleep. It's 8:30pm here in paradise so i know it's later there.
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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If your an investor and even more so if your an oil play investor this is a must read! You may want to be sitting down however if this is news to you!
posted
this is a post by mr amoyt 6/25/05 it is how he values the stock
BTSI Math and Response from CEO
(reposted)
In my opinon, this is will see at least a 500 percent run-up in the next 8-12 weeks. The attached is a response from the CEO:
1. The acquisition of Nord Oil is the first in the new direction of the company business plan. The current issued and outstanding shares of BTSI is approx. 340 million and a reverse split of 1:12 will be performed by or before September 1, 2005 resulting in the corporation have a total issue and outstanding post issuance of the acquisition and reverse split to be 216 million. It is fair to say that the short term net asset value of the properties to be closer to $350 million since this would be the use of the actual wells and no further exploration on the probable reserve. Having said that, the net asset value per share is $1.62 and if account any and all reserves of proven and probable without discounting by any recovery rate, the value of the asset is well above $2.5 billion.
3. We expect to complete ground work by end of August and begin production by third week of September.
4. Current management of BTSI does not bring any Oil and Gas experience but financing experience and corporate finance advisory. We will be nominated several other people to the board and US management. We have a strong team onsite in Russia with long history of successful exploration and production.
I hope this provides with with some clarification. Please note that we will release further information in the coming weeks.
Please do not hesitate to send me further inquiries.
BIO-TRACKING / NORD OIL INTERNATIONAL
Per: Jean-Francois Amyot President
Posts: 6008 | From: phoenix az | Registered: Mar 2005
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now since then things have changed for the betterif you want to go to investors hub or r/b and read some of the posts with more updated evaluations.
Posts: 6008 | From: phoenix az | Registered: Mar 2005
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allow me to respond to what is on the link you provide.
1) Cheney said "By some estimates, ..." This means that there are those with this opinion, not that everyone is in agreement with this view.
The decline in production he mentioned back in 1999 could have been foresight of a Gulf war. How much oil is not coming from Iraq?
2) Not all oil countries are operating at maximum production. Russia, 2nd to Saudi Arabia, for example, isn't. Iraq clearly isn't at maximum production.
3) Just because prices are high doesn't mean we've passed or are about to pass the "peak oil" mark. There are many other factors that could explain the current high prices.
4) The reason oil companies explore for oil is that many reserves exist that haven't yet been found. Many of these are in Russia, according to some. Certainly high prices allows many non-Russia oil companies put the extra profit back into the company (i.e. oil exploration).
5) Producing at full capacity is often times (dare I say most times if not all of the time) not profit maximizing for the oil companies. They certainly won't be at full production if they believe they could get higher prices in the future.
That's all that i can think of now.
The bottom line is that I don't think we need to fear this peak oil theory -- at least not yet.
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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I appreciate any and all info on the oil industry so i can be better informed of fact, and beliefs.
I just felt I had to give my 2 cents on the peak oil theory so as to delay any potential drop in oil stocks. Call me selfish. I just want to become rich from Nord and some other oil based holdings before we start down the path of non-oil energy sources. Truth be told i invested in a solar company already and it's doing pretty good so far.
So if i wanted to put a limit order for some more nord tonite anyone know what a good and reasonable buy price would be? It's kind of a pain having to wake up at 3:30am (Hawaii time) to watch the market open. Though i seem to be doing it without an alarm clock lately. I've come to hate weekends. I'm too impatient waiting for monday so i can watch the stocks.
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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I see "Peak Oil" as a huge gain in oil prices! $200-$300 a barrel at some point in the next few years if not sooner! Its gonna be an interesting week for this stock!
-------------------- Nothing moves a sub like news!!! Posts: 3346 | From: Leominster,MA,US | Registered: Jul 2003
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Ricpic, welcome aboard the BTSI train. I did see that .04 trade pop up. My feeling is that we will see that for the bid very soon this week!
Posts: 769 | From: Hotizona | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
i saw the 0.04 trade as well. E*trade is no longer showing it as the high of the day. It must have been an error, or market makers rebalancing amongst themselves.
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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Yea the world should be brought to its knees economically by then.
quote:Originally posted by rickpic: Eric
I see "Peak Oil" as a huge gain in oil prices! $200-$300 a barrel at some point in the next few years if not sooner! Its gonna be an interesting week for this stock!
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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It is interesting to me that so many shares are available to purchase. The people selling don't need the money or they are desperate for a few bucks or don't think there is a future in this stock? Go figure. I got some more at 9:40 for cheap.
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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Dig, it could be that the sellers are actually longs who got in very very very low compared to where it is now. I know i have some shares that i got at a very very very low price though i'm holding out for at least a nickel a share. Even then i'll be holding most of my shares.
It could also be the market makers naked shorting which they're allowed to do on the pinks.
Posts: 44 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Jun 2005
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when i say price per barrell in russia i mean the russian tax structure
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