posted
Hey PCola, remember I said yesterday that I think BSTR still has room to move (on my BSTR thread) - check it out, BSTR moving today
IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by inlovewithpennies: Hey PCola, remember I said yesterday that I think BSTR still has room to move (on my BSTR thread) - check it out, BSTR moving today
posted
Much thanks. I've spent countless hours no this thing, and still feel like I'm barely touching the potential, as I will explain in a more detailed post in a few minutes.
quote:Originally posted by jdiddy: Awesome thread PCOLA!!!!
posted
Okay, so I did some more testing, and got the average return up to about 17% for the 20 that occurred this year through August (to give them time to run -out). I just did a simple test of the best possible return I could have gotten, solely based on closing price (for example, if a stock's high was $25, but it never closed above $22, i would use $22 as my high water mark). I found that the average max return was almost exactly 30%.
What this leads me to believe is that 1) if I got better at knowing when to sell, and 2) used intraday instead of closing highs, I could get the return up significantly from the 17% per trade. (Keep in mind this is per trade, not annual, so for the 10 months so far this year the total return would be something like 60%+ depending on how much you put in each one.)
I'm still trying to fine tune it, but I think it's pretty darned good so far, with a good bit of upside still to be found.
IP: Logged |
posted
PCola been real busy with law school applications and such, getting back in the market again, did a quick review of this thread. Very interesting, would like to dip into this a bit, PM me if you get a chance with exactly what you do with the list you get.
-------------------- Disclaimer: Not accountable for anything I say
IP: Logged |
1) I found a small error in my selection macro. If an insider or company name had a comma in it, it screwed up my comma delimited text file (e.g., Bob Jones, Jr. or Jones Investments, LLC)
2) This is going to be on hiatus for the next week and a half. I am taking teh CFA exam next Saturday, so I'm pretty much ignoring anything that takes any time for the next week.
See you back here after Decemebr 1st (and wish me luck on the exam...)
IP: Logged |
posted
Thanks guys. They suggest studying 250-300 hours, and I'm probably pushing 25 at this point
Not looking good as of now based on some sample exam results.
I'm getting between 60-63% on the practice exams I've been doing, and think you need about 70% to pass. Unfortunately I think I will be busy at work this week, so probably won't get much more time to study before Saturday, but hopefully I can learn enough to get a few more questions right...
IP: Logged |
There are 240 questions, I counted 140 that I felt pretty good about, so if I I got 90% of those right, I would need 42 out of 100 on the rest to get the 70% target passing score. So not out of the realm of possibility, but not likely.
And that's my actuarial analysis of it
Won't know until mid Jan, I think, so it's essentially forgotten about until then.
Unfortunately, I'm now really busy at work...
hopefully I can start goign through my program in the next few days again, but I'm not sure.
IP: Logged |
posted
aahh yes...but enough to raise the stock 30% in a week Volume on friday was double from thursday.. a lot of resistance is gone...and is a pincher play...
posted
Cool. Good luck to you. Just looked at it a bit more. Daily $ volume is frighteningly small for my tastes Hope it works out for you though!
IP: Logged |
posted
OKay, I finally updated my program, and worked around the issues. I'm too tired to finish the analysis tonight, but wanted to get one thing down before the market opened tomorrow.
MCGC is one that I'll be buying at the open tomorrow.
I also decided to change my "sell rule" to just sell for a 5% gain each time. I will confirm this tomorrow (if I have time), but I think that every one so far has hit 5% within just a few days. Until I get more comfortable with charts and finding exit points, I think I will just put more into each one and set a sell at 5% immediately. I can't check the exact numbers now because I have the second half of my analysis running right now, but I am pretty sure there have been 30 or so "buys" this year.
If I made 5% on each of those and rolled that amount into the next trade, a rough calculation is over 330% gain for the year (1.05^30). Commission would eat some of tha profit, as would the fact that you can never truly go "all-in" because you can't by fractional shares, and things like that. But if I could actually show that it waspossible, or better yet, likely, that I could return a big number, I'll feel pretty good about it.
I just did a quick test, and if I started with $1000, made 5% on each trade, took out $10 commission ($5 buy/sell on Choicetrade) and invested 98% of that amount on the next one (e.g., 1000*1.05 = 1050 - 10 = 1040, invest 1040*.98 = 1019 on the next one, lather, rinse, repeat), I would still end up with over 250% after 30 trades.
I have no idea how realistic that 98% assumption is, but it doesn't *seem*, like it woul dbe hard to do that.
Another consideration is if some of the 30 buys happened on the same day, you'd basically lose one of the trades.
Like I said, I'll analyze it more tomorrow, but am happy with the preliminary results.
IP: Logged |
posted
Ah screw it. Decided to stay up and check into it more...
I counted 31 instances this year. 30 of them went up at least 5% within 10 trading days! The one that didn't, I would have sold for a 5% loss after 10 trading days.
Hmm, I'm starting to get excited about this again...
Start with $10,000 and have it more than triple within a year? Potentially turn $10K into $100K in two years? THAT would be sweet
Guess I'm putting that cart in front of the horse a bit though...
IP: Logged |
But good news for you. My 5% was $11.80 (I pay more per trade then you), so my sell order already filled. That should pave the way for it to go up lots more for you!
Jo
-------------------- "Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss
IP: Logged |
UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!
Printer-friendly view of this topic
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
