This is topic PCola77s New and Greatly Improved Form-4 thread in forum Hot Stocks Free for All ! at Allstocks.com's Bulletin Board.


To visit this topic, use this URL:
http://www.allstocks.com/stockmessageboard/ubb/ultimatebb.php/ubb/get_topic/f/2/t/014517.html

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Some of you may remember a thread that I had started about a year ago where I posted results from a program that I wrote to pull Form-4 data from the internet. At the time, that was the entirety of the process. I pulled the data and posted a list of stocks that had a lot of recent Form-4 action.

The thread and program kind of fell by the wayside when the site that I had used to get the data went to a subscription basis, and my code stopped working.

Well, over the last few weeks I have written a new program that imports Form-4 data from the internet. A Form-4 filing is required when an insider (i.e., CEO, CFO, holder of 10% or more of shares, etc.) buys or sells shares. In addition, I wrote a program to pull historical data, such as price and volume. Using the two programs, I was able to set up a series of analytical steps using technical analysis of historical data in conjunction with the Form-4 data, and create a stock screening process that I believe has the potential to provide excellent returns.

Backtesting this theory on data from 2007 through September, my program generated 19 “buy signals”. Looking at the charts after the buy signals occurred, it was obvious to me that this method held great potential.

The next step in my analysis will be to test different sell rules to maximize returns. However, at this point, in order to generate preliminary results, I set a simple 5% trailing stoploss (based on daily closing prices). Plotting these sales on graphs showed that a lot of potential gains are left on the table, and that even higher returns should be attainable with more sophisticated sell rules.

Given that temporary limitation, these results are subject to upward modification in the near future.

As of now, 15 of the 19 “buys” generated so far this year would have sold. Those 15 buys resulted in the following gains or losses: 10.4%, 16.9%, 3.3%, 4.8%, 12.3%, 7.6, (1.0%), (4.2%), 6.7%, (2.8%), (2.3%), 8.5%, 3.4%, (6.9%), 25.7%.

While the average return of 5.5% may not seem especially impressive, the stocks were held for an average of just 20 calendar days (or about 15 trading days).

In addition to the 15 previously described, there were 4 buy signals that have not yet triggered the “sell rule” (i.e., there has yet to be a day where the close was 5% lower than the highest close since purchase). Those 4 stocks seem to be slow, consistent gainers, with current returns of 33.3%, 7.4%, 10.4%, and 56.8% (for an average return of 27.0% and an average current holding time of 49 calendar days).

Combining these two groups, my analysis shows an average return of 10% per trade, with an average holding time of 26 calendar days.

Note that the 10% monthly return can not be directly extrapolated to a 213% annual gain (1.10^12), due to the irregularity with which these instances occur, and the fact that one should not put 100% of holdings into any individual stock.

In order to estimate the type of return that could be accomplished over an extended period of time, I organized the “buy signals” in date order, and tested two different methodologies for allocation of funds. The first methodology is to simply put 10% of your initial holdings (i.e., $10,000 of an initial $100,000 account balance) into each instance of a “buy signal”.

This method produced a 21.3% return for the 9 months of 2007.

The second method was a more aggressive approach, putting a larger amount into each, with the risk of not having any available capital if a string of “buy signals” occur in a short period of time.

This method did prove to be too aggressive to take advantage of all “buy signals”. However, even though no funds were available to purchase the security that went up over 50%, this method still returned approximately 32% for the 9 months of 2007.

In analyzing the data, it is apparent to me that the month of August (with 11 “buy signals”) will prove to be an outlier, versus the normal 0-3 buy signals in a month. My supposition is that the drastic market decline in early August provided incentive for an inordinate number of insider purchases, which will most likely not happen again in the near future. Excluding August “buy signals” from the data still returned approximately 10% per trade, so while the number of signals was abnormal, the expected return was not compromised by this anomalous month.

In summary, my method produced a range of results from about 21-32% in the 9 months of 2007, versus about 9% for the S&P500, and 12% for the DJIA.

This number will increase, possibly significantly, when a more appropriate “sell rule” is established, and going forward, the likelihood of missing significant gains should be limited.

Out of courtesy, please limit discussion in this thread to the idea itself, or discussion of any stocks that have recently generated "buy signals".

Obviously I can't divulge the methodology, but note that the process is done on NYSE and NASDAQ stocks, so you can be comfortable that there will be no "frontloading" or "pump and dump" risk associated here.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments, and hopefully this will turn out to be a useful thread for us to all make some consistent gains on some "real" stocks. I know that would be a big change for me, but something I look forward to.
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Please post some of your stock picks.
Also please explain what form 4 data is?
 

---

Posted by Jenna on :
 
Pc- I am so excited.....

As far as 5% not seeming like a lot....

IT IS A LOT....Depends on how much you are playing with....

In pennies we don't want to risk alot so if we use $500 5% wouldn't be a lot but if you are doing this on Big Board stocks than it would be safe to put $5,000 in wach one, 5% would be $250...& $250 in 2 weeks is great I think!! You just keep letting it snowball & WOW!!!

That's what I so now Swing Trading BB stocks...on average I keep them 2 weeks & make on average about 5-7%......the past 3 weeks I have made $1200....so 5% adds up!!!

I can't wait to do your program....

I'll be watching & participating on this thread...

Good Luck Buddy...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
First one is MPG. Currently at $27.30.

CEO just bought over $5mil worth, and it passed all of my other tests.

Keep an eye on it in the next couple of days/weeks.
 

---

Posted by stocktrader22 on :
 
hhmmm... non profitable REIT, right now scary
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
PCola, thanks for the continued contribution to the site. I, for one am starting to get a little tired of losing money playing the pennies. This may be the next phase I have been looking for. Unfortunately I dont have the time to watch L2's every minute of the day to figure out when to buy and sell so this added weapon to the arsenal could be a turning point.
One question. Does the "mining" take into account form 4s that show where insiders are issued shares instead of buying or is that one of the filter points that you as the information receiver have to filter? Just wondering. Thanks, TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
tman, I limit my search to open market purchases, vs exercises of options, etc.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
bueno! TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Good point. We'll see if my "program" can overcome that

quote:

---

Originally posted by stocktrader22:
hhmmm... non profitable REIT, right now scary

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by tmanfromtexas:
Nice... PCola can you share some of the other stocks that you watched during the trial run of this program. A few winners and losers. I would like to check them out if that is possible. Thanks, TMAN...

---

PCola I second this request
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
I thirden thy requesto!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Two good ones were RMDX which I would have bought at the open on 8/20 for about $1.85 (currently at 2.95, and would not have sold yet since it would not have hit my 5% stoploss), and BEXP, which I would have bought on 8/14 for about $4.50 (don't have the actual numbers in front og me, but looking at the graph I probably would have sold in the last day or two in the $6.00 range).

One bad one was JAH, which I would have bought on 9/5 at about $32.50 and stopped out around $30.00 a couple of days later. It bounced back up to almost $35.00, so had I held, I still could have made about 7%.

Another bad one was NRP, which I would have bought at just under $32 and stopped out a few days later at about $29. It bounced back to about $35 as well.

Actually, I'm glad you asked that question, because (as I said in the write-up) I simplified my test with a 5% stoploss, but this excercise showed that maybe I shouldn't put the stoploss in right away, so I won't sell out in the first few days to allow myself a little wiggle room.

Just one of the many things I still need to test, I guess.

Just checked two of the other losers, and one I missed out on 30% and the other like 15%. So I feel confident that my estimates are significantly understated, I just have to create a better sell rule.

Another reason that I need to create a better sell rule is IOM, which I would have bought at 2.40 and sold at 2.70 a month or so later for a nice 12% gain, but was 5.75 the other day, representing another 125% that I missed out on.

Edit: just noticed that the IOM would have been bought in 8/06, so forget that one, it wasn't in my 2007 analysis, but you get the idea, I'm sure.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Thanks PCola. If you get any hits you would like to share let us know if you dont mind. I plan to paper trade a few at first to see how I do. I see that the stop losses can hamper any gains but they sure are good when one goes straight down the crapper. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yeah Tman, that's the way to go, and I plan on posting them all here as they pop up. I need to spend some time making the process more efficient, because as of now it takes like 14 hours

It's set up to pull all the data from scratch, but now that I have the historical data I just need to add 1 day's data each day. I'll get to that part of the proess soon though, and it should only take a few minutes at that point.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Thanks Pcola, I will be watching for um. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
The whole opint of me doing this is to get a strategy that doesn't require me to watch every tick during the day... Yet, of course, I'm sitting here refreshing my account every 5 minutes... Some day I'll quit obsessing...

But for now, hit an HOD a few minutes ago of 28.64, which is just under 5% gain. Adjusting the trailing stoploss should basically mean that worst case scenario from here is break even.
 

---

Posted by Jenna on :
 
Good Goin' so far PC!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Day 2 close is $28.41. Just over 4%.

Slow and steady, as they say...
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
great thread, man!

gonna re-read your methodology explanation when I can properly appreciate it. Nice work...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks Tex.

MPG is at $29.50 now, up about 8% in under 3 days. If you set a 5% stoploss, worst you could do now is about +3%.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
I saw that. RSI is just now touching 70 so it has a little room yet to run. Congrats on this PCola. TMAN...

(I knew I should have bought in when you posted this. lol)
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks man. I'm currently running some tests adjusting the sell rules, I'll report back with what I find. One thing I'm doing is starting with a higher stoploss and grading it down over time (i.e., have a 10% stoploss aftre day 1, 9% after day 2, etc down to 5% after day 5). This may eliminate cases where there is a decent initial drop that would take out your stoploss, only to see it recover and end up being a good one.

Another idea is to look at each peak and adjust he stoploss from there. Like if the peak is up 10% have the stoploss at 5%. But if it peaks at +40%, increase the stoploss to 10% to give it more room to pullback, in case it runs again.

I think I have like 10 million ideas that I need to test...
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
The stop loss is going to depend on your risk tolerence. The stop should also depend on other factors as you well know, charts, news, etc. I see that the ceo bought at the low of MPG. He may have been lucky or knew something who knows but if he had been off a little it could have dropped some more and you would have a loss instead of a gain of 8% if you stop was too low. its hard to see red but if an insider buys with their own money for a significant sum a short term loss on our end may need to be accepted as part of the game until the turn occurs. Just a thought. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Day 3 close $28.93 for about 6%.

TMan, I know what you're saying about risk tolerance, but as one of my coworkers joked "You have risk averse people, risk loving people, and then people like you, risk-orgy people, who can't get enough risk"
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
By the way, as far as stoplosses, I had an interesting conversation this week with a hedge fund manager. I asked him how he decides to sell a stock, and if he uses some type of stoploss. He said something like "We've had conversations with a lot of people who basically mock us for not using stoplosses, and who claim their funds are better than ours because they have stoplosses in place to limit downside. We always ask them how much money stoplosses have saved them over time. None of them ever know, but we do. We backtest every strategy known to man, and have yet to find a stoploss that adds value, and in fact most actually diminish returns."

Now, obviously as an individual investor, you pretty much have to set them, but for a fund, who has 200+ positions at a given time, they found that they actually would miss out on some big gains by having stoplosses in place. In other words, to save 5-10% of downside, you're potentially missing 50%+ on the top end.

Not really related to the thread, but pretty interesting stuff, I thought.
 

---

Posted by bb money on :
 
I too have heard this PCola, but as you said many times it does make sense for an individual investor to set these.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
By the way, as far as stoplosses, I had an interesting conversation this week with a hedge fund manager. I asked him how he decides to sell a stock, and if he uses some type of stoploss. He said something like "We've had conversations with a lot of people who basically mock us for not using stoplosses, and who claim their funds are better than ours because they have stoplosses in place to limit downside. We always ask them how much money stoplosses have saved them over time. None of them ever know, but we do. We backtest every strategy known to man, and have yet to find a stoploss that adds value, and in fact most actually diminish returns."

Now, obviously as an individual investor, you pretty much have to set them, but for a fund, who has 200+ positions at a given time, they found that they actually would miss out on some big gains by having stoplosses in place. In other words, to save 5-10% of downside, you're potentially missing 50%+ on the top end.

Not really related to the thread, but pretty interesting stuff, I thought.

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well, if you would have had a literal 5% trailing stoploss, you would have sold at 28.40 for just over 4%.

My simplified method was based solely on closes, so I won't sell until it closes a day lower than 27.48, which is 95% of the highest close (yesterday's 28.93).

And of course I reserve the right to change that based on further testing.

But just wanted to let you know that I am holding for now.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Closed at 28.29, down 2%+ for the day, but up 3.6% since my first post.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Down again today, to 27.77, but still up about 1.7% overall.

I actually pulled my stoploss altogether on this one. I'll post the actual numbers tomorrow if I think of it, but basically the results of my latest test essentially say don't sell any drop in the first month, as every case that had a drop in the first month rebounded to end up higher than it's prior peak. Obviously history is not an exact predictor, but I'm comfortable in my tests that I'll be holding this one for a while still.

You may have seen it, but I thought this was an interesting read:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/10/10/whos-buying-now.aspx

Had some pros and cons, but I liked these parts:

"CEO Robert Maguire III joined the party last Monday, spending more than $5 million to pad his position.

I sense that he'll profit handsomely when the real estate market finally turns. Maguire Properties, you see, doesn't invest in residential property. Office and parking space is more to its liking. "

"In other words, even though Maguire faces plenty of risk as a REIT, investors may be overstating the bear case."
 

---

Posted by cottonjim on :
 
"risk-orgy people" huh-huh, orgy.....cool. Nice thread PC.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks jim...

MPG another down day. Closed at 27.55, now up just under 1% since I posted.

3 down days in a row, hopefully it turns up soon. The nice thing about this versus my tradtional penny stock gambling is not worrying that I will see my account down 50% if I leave my desk for 10 minutes...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Potentially great news for MPG.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1637530920071017?rpc=44

CEO is trying to get financing to buyout shareholders to go private.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Gapped up 5%, not sure where it will go from here.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. Almost not surprisingly, it's given up pretty much all of it's gains. Shoulda sold at the open, I guess.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Closed today at $27.86, up about 2% overall.
 

---

Posted by fourseven on :
 
I think MPG will trade down to 25..

But holy crap have you seen RMDX? Climbed steadily up to 3.25 since called out -- you would've doubled your money -- nice find PCola!
 

---

Posted by NanoTrader on :
 
I'm glad you succeeded PC! i've been waiting for something like this..I'm IN
Keep up the good work
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
by the way, SHOO was another one that would have triggered a buy a couple of weeks ago. It was kind of a "tweener" in that there wasn't enough runout to include it in my initial analysis, but it happened over a week before I had finalized my program so i didn't buy it. I would have gotten it at about 18.20 if memory serves, and it is now around $22, for over 20%.

With my luck, MPG will be the first loser, and it's the first one I bought

I'll run my analysis program again tonight and see if any new ones pop up.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
After a couple of down days, MPG had a bit of an increase today to close at 26.84. Down just under 2% overall.

I didn't get a chance to run the program again last night, but will try to do it this evening.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
got anything on SKYE? or maybe SKYY? (can't remember) I saw somewhere they've had fairly significant insider buying...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1095751.htm

Looks like one dude has been steadily buying, but not enough of the other things that I look for happened to make me look into it further. Plus the buys aren't for all that much each.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
naw, only about $200k total, as I recall...

what do you like to see? minimum a mil?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I think the trigger to intially look into it is $50K in one purchase, then I look at some other indicators.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
How bout this one:

GE CEO Immelt buys 83,000 shares
October 23, 2007: 08:10 AM EST

Oct. 23, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --

NEW YORK (AP) - The chairman and chief executive of General Electric Co. bought 83,000 shares of common stock Monday, spending more than $3.3 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Jeffrey R. Immelt reported he bought the shares for between $40.03 and $40.13 apiece.

The purchase brought Immelt's direct holdings of the entertainment and industrial conglomerate's stock to more than 1.07 million shares, for a total value of more than $43 million, based on GE's (NYSE:GE) closing price of $40.17 Monday. Immelt also holds 20,777 shares through a 401(k) plan, according to the filing.

According to media reports, the purchase was Immelt's largest to date in dollar value, and his holdings are well above company guidelines that require him to own six times the value of his salary in stock.

Immelt received $15.2 million in compensation in 2006, according to a company proxy filed in February.

That was made up of $3.3 million in salary, a $5 million bonus and $548,013 in other benefits, including private use of company airplanes, and performance share units valued at $6.3 million on the day they were granted last year. The performance units will convert into GE stock after five years if the company meets certain financial benchmarks, according to the proxy.

Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

General Electric is based in Fairfield, Conn.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Nice buy, but doesn't fit my criteria.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I ran my for 4 program last night and a new one popped up. The symbol is CWTR. The company announced dissapointing earnings guidance recently, and the stock dropped about 20%. Two days later the CEO bought over $250,000 worth, and another insider bought over $100,000 worth.

Had I run my program over the weekend, I would have bought this one at the open on Monday at 7.85. It has already bounced back up over 5%, but since it is still below what the CEO bought at ($8.43), I am still comfortable buying.

This one also popped up on fourseven's gap scan, so we should keep a special eye on this one to see how stocks react when they hit both scans.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
kewl...

exciting, even. Nice progress, fellas
 

---

Posted by fourseven on :
 
I see that:

2007-10-17 POTTER MICHAEL J (Director)
+13,000 at $8.45 ($109,850) -- total 20,000

2007-10-17 GRIESEMER DAN (President and COO) +30,000 at $8.43 ($252,908) --total 86,750


Maybe it will try to bridge the last gap?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
That would be nice. I'd prefer to see it fill the previous gap too
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
okay, i got in CWTR at $8.31 and it close at $8.48 just over 2%.

MPG came back after a tough mornign to close at $26.87, basically flat for the day.

So overall I am essentially breakeven on the 2.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
MPG closed at 26.66 and CWTR at 8.95

MPG down about 2.5%
CWTR up 7.7% (and 14% since I should have gotten in)
 

---

Posted by Goodones on :
 
I will make this very simple. SKVY DD it, look at last Q and all of the form 4s and get in before everybody else does.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
My one concern is that it's already up 160% since the beginning of the year and 30% since his recent buys.

I'll keep an eye on it though, thanks.
 

---

Posted by trade04 on :
 
DKAM form 4
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by trade04:
DKAM form 4

---

LOL, my wife spends more than that every day at Target.

2007-10-26
Purchase 2007-10-30
2:38 pm DRINKS AMERICAS HOLDINGS, LTD DKAM KENNY J PATRICK
(CEO and President
Director
10% owner) 900 $0.4289 $386 2,512,983
(Direct) View
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
If MPG closes below $26.70 today it will trigger my sell rule and I'd take a 2.5% or so loss on it. CWTR is up about 6.5% at this point though.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
MPG closed at 27.25 and CWTR at 8.95

MPG is basically breakeven at this point and CWTR is up about 7.5%.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Both got slammed today. Will have to cut my losses on MPG in the morning.

And of course SHOO is now up like 30%.
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Hey PC,

I have been keepin' an eye on circ the last couple days....The CEO bought 70k in shares plus more today...

Oct 18, 2007 FERRONE RICHARD T
Officer direct Buy 0.0070 55,125

Oct 17, 2007 FERRONE RICHARD T
Officer direct Buy 0.0064 944,875

Sep 27, 2007 HAWATMEH IEHAB J
Officer direct Buy 0.0070 10,000,000

Also..
**********: BSI, CNST, CNTF, TNFG, CIRC, MRAE Have Been Removed From Naked Short List Today

CirTran Corporation (OTCBB: CIRC) operates as a contract manufacturer primarily in the United States and China. The company provides manufacturing services using surface mount technology, ball-grid array assembly, pin-through-hole, and custom injection molded cabling. Its services include premanufacturing, manufacturing, and postmanufacturing services, as well as other manufacturing services, including refurbishment and remanufacturing. The company engages in electronics assembly activities, which consist primarily of the placement and attachment of electronic and mechanical components on printed circuit boards and flexible cables; assembling sub-systems and systems incorporating printed circuit boards and electromechanical components that convert electrical energy to mechanical energy; and the provision of design and new product introduction services. The company, through its subsidiary, Racore Technology Corporation, also designs, manufactures, and distributes Ethernet technology products, including Ethernet cards that are used to connect computers through fiber optic networks, as well as produce private label, custom designed networking products and technologies on an electronics original equipment manufacturers (OEM) basis. In addition, it designs, engineers, manufactures, and supplies products in the electronics, consumer products, and general merchandise industries with as focus on fitness and exercise products, household and kitchen appliances, health and beauty aids, and electronics products. CirTran Corp. markets these products through a network of distributors, value-added resellers, and systems integrators. It offers its services to the electronics OEMs in the communications, networking, peripherals, gaming, law enforcement, consumer products, telecommunications, automotive, medical, and semiconductor industries. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in West Valley City, Utah. With 906.19 million shares outstanding and an undisclosed short position, there is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of CIRC.


http://www.cirtran.com

http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=circ

http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/showFiling.go?name=CIRTRAN%20CORP:%204,%20S ub-Doc%201&link=http%3A//quotemedia.10kwizard.com/filing.xml%3Frepo%3Dtenk%26ipa ge%3D5247199%26doc%3D1&type=TEXT


IMO.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
*bump*
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
WHOOOOOOOOOOOOO! first post in three days!
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
back up...

not sure, yet, of thread structure...

but we're up
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
AND whattya know? CIRC BLOWING JUST LIKE I HAD FORCASTED...

haHA!

(thread structure seems fine)
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
your time-stamp correct?
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by T e x:
your time-stamp correct?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by inlovewithpennies:
Hey PCola, remember I said yesterday that I think BSTR still has room to move (on my BSTR thread) - check it out, BSTR moving today

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by jdiddy:
Awesome thread PCOLA!!!!

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, so I did some more testing, and got the average return up to about 17% for the 20 that occurred this year through August (to give them time to run -out). I just did a simple test of the best possible return I could have gotten, solely based on closing price (for example, if a stock's high was $25, but it never closed above $22, i would use $22 as my high water mark). I found that the average max return was almost exactly 30%.

What this leads me to believe is that 1) if I got better at knowing when to sell, and 2) used intraday instead of closing highs, I could get the return up significantly from the 17% per trade. (Keep in mind this is per trade, not annual, so for the 10 months so far this year the total return would be something like 60%+ depending on how much you put in each one.)

I'm still trying to fine tune it, but I think it's pretty darned good so far, with a good bit of upside still to be found.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
okay, just bailed on a few losers and grabbed 200 shares of LNET at an even $19
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Damn, looks like I nailed the entry point for once! Up almost 2% in like 20 minutes.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Here's the current tally for the 6 (Not sure how it'll paste, but hopefully it's readable):

Date Symbol Entry Current G/(L)
09/20/07 SHOO 18.20 23.94 31.5%
10/04/07 MPG 27.30 29.96 9.7%
10/22/07 CWTR 8.31 8.84 6.4%
11/08/07 PFCB 27.38 28.76 5.0%
11/12/07 CCRT 12.50 13.28 6.2%
11/13/07 LNET 19.00 19.50 2.6%

And the entry on CWTR should have been 7.85, which would bump that one up to 12.6%
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I'm too damn busy at work today, so I think I missed HW, but should have gotten in at the open today at $13.00.

If I review it later and find it didn't pass all the tests, I'll let you know.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Bump this from yesterday to keep it on the new page:

Here's the current tally for the 6 (Not sure how it'll paste, but hopefully it's readable):

Date Symbol Entry Current G/(L)
09/20/07 SHOO 18.20 23.94 31.5%
10/04/07 MPG 27.30 29.96 9.7%
10/22/07 CWTR 8.31 8.84 6.4%
11/08/07 PFCB 27.38 28.76 5.0%
11/12/07 CCRT 12.50 13.28 6.2%
11/13/07 LNET 19.00 19.50 2.6%

And the entry on CWTR should have been 7.85, which would bump that one up to 12.6%
 

---

Posted by stocktrader22 on :
 
PCola been real busy with law school applications and such, getting back in the market again, did a quick review of this thread. Very interesting, would like to dip into this a bit, PM me if you get a chance with exactly what you do with the list you get.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
two things to note.

1) I found a small error in my selection macro. If an insider or company name had a comma in it, it screwed up my comma delimited text file (e.g., Bob Jones, Jr. or Jones Investments, LLC)

2) This is going to be on hiatus for the next week and a half. I am taking teh CFA exam next Saturday, so I'm pretty much ignoring anything that takes any time for the next week.

See you back here after Decemebr 1st (and wish me luck on the exam...)
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
GOOD LUCK PCOLA!!!
 

---

Posted by glassman on :
 
yeah, ditto that...
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
Triple ditto!
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Good luck Pcola. Maybe when you get back I will have some money to play with lol. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks guys. They suggest studying 250-300 hours, and I'm probably pushing 25 at this point

Not looking good as of now based on some sample exam results.

I'm getting between 60-63% on the practice exams I've been doing, and think you need about 70% to pass. Unfortunately I think I will be busy at work this week, so probably won't get much more time to study before Saturday, but hopefully I can learn enough to get a few more questions right...
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
So how'd it go?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I think maybe 30% chance of passing.

There are 240 questions, I counted 140 that I felt pretty good about, so if I I got 90% of those right, I would need 42 out of 100 on the rest to get the 70% target passing score.
So not out of the realm of possibility, but not likely.

And that's my actuarial analysis of it

Won't know until mid Jan, I think, so it's essentially forgotten about until then.

Unfortunately, I'm now really busy at work...

hopefully I can start goign through my program in the next few days again, but I'm not sure.
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Check out the insider buying on AFT...!

Just a heads up PC.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Interesting, but only $60K between 3 people.

quote:

---

Originally posted by wdcisco:
Check out the insider buying on AFT...!

Just a heads up PC.

---

 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
aahh yes...but enough to raise the stock 30% in a week Volume on friday was double from thursday.. a lot of resistance is gone...and is a pincher play...

gl man!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Cool. Good luck to you. Just looked at it a bit more. Daily $ volume is frighteningly small for my tastes Hope it works out for you though!
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Thanks PC...!!
See you around.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
OKay, I finally updated my program, and worked around the issues. I'm too tired to finish the analysis tonight, but wanted to get one thing down before the market opened tomorrow.

MCGC is one that I'll be buying at the open tomorrow.

I also decided to change my "sell rule" to just sell for a 5% gain each time. I will confirm this tomorrow (if I have time), but I think that every one so far has hit 5% within just a few days. Until I get more comfortable with charts and finding exit points, I think I will just put more into each one and set a sell at 5% immediately. I can't check the exact numbers now because I have the second half of my analysis running right now, but I am pretty sure there have been 30 or so "buys" this year.

If I made 5% on each of those and rolled that amount into the next trade, a rough calculation is over 330% gain for the year (1.05^30). Commission would eat some of tha profit, as would the fact that you can never truly go "all-in" because you can't by fractional shares, and things like that. But if I could actually show that it waspossible, or better yet, likely, that I could return a big number, I'll feel pretty good about it.

I just did a quick test, and if I started with $1000, made 5% on each trade, took out $10 commission ($5 buy/sell on Choicetrade) and invested 98% of that amount on the next one (e.g., 1000*1.05 = 1050 - 10 = 1040, invest 1040*.98 = 1019 on the next one, lather, rinse, repeat), I would still end up with over 250% after 30 trades.

I have no idea how realistic that 98% assumption is, but it doesn't *seem*, like it woul dbe hard to do that.

Another consideration is if some of the 30 buys happened on the same day, you'd basically lose one of the trades.

Like I said, I'll analyze it more tomorrow, but am happy with the preliminary results.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Ah screw it. Decided to stay up and check into it more...

I counted 31 instances this year. 30 of them went up at least 5% within 10 trading days! The one that didn't, I would have sold for a 5% loss after 10 trading days.

Hmm, I'm starting to get excited about this again...

Start with $10,000 and have it more than triple within a year? Potentially turn $10K into $100K in two years? THAT would be sweet

Guess I'm putting that cart in front of the horse a bit though...
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Sweet indeed pc...I'll have to go into that program AFTER I bundle up that 10k from my challenge....
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
If you DO succeed in your challenge, I'm thinking you shouldn't waste your time with my idea to triple your money in a year!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
So, PCola, did you get in MCGC?

Looks like you may have your 5% already, depending on when you got in.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Shh, I don't want to jinx anything.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Then this wouldn't be a good time to tell you that I got in the morning as well?

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Oh God, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

What'd you get in at?
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
$11.17,

But good news for you. My 5% was $11.80 (I pay more per trade then you), so my sell order already filled. That should pave the way for it to go up lots more for you!

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. I'm already out. I didn't get in until later than you, had to sell a couple of things at the open to free up cash, so I got in at 11.25ish and out at 11.82.

Although if you just sold out I'm tempted to get back in
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Yeah, it did close pretty strong.

Anyway, thank you for the heads up on that one. Even if it runs more tommorrow, I am satisfied with the 5% for now. It's better than losing thousands in one day (thanks FRPT and PAY). I need to recoup some of my many losses and a little at a time may have to be the way to do it.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, two more for tomorrow:

VC and NCS

If I had to pick one of the two, I'd go with NCS because it's down like 30% in just over a week.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, in for 120 shares of NCS at 25.55
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
hmm, put a sell order in at $26.92, and it supposedly hit a high of $26.95 but my order never filled. I hate quirks like that because it makes analyzing historical data so hard.
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
I like VC - looks to be gaining strength.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Did you get in? Looks like an actual entry at the market open would have been about $4.17. Hasn't yet hit 5% from there, but was close. Wouldn't surprise me to see it get there in the afternoon.
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
Nope, just watching on paper M8. I would be in for a few days on this one. Prolly out as a whole till next year - just a couple small positions here and there for now. Put me on Paper at 4.20 for 250. I saw your alert at 7:30 this am. This needs to break through the 50 RSI imo. If it does Cool!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well, today was a good example of why paper trading doesn't always mimick real trading. If you said "Okay, I'd have gotten in at 25.59, and sold for a 5% gain at $26.87, since the high was $26.95".

But in reality, I don't recall seeing trading get any higher than $26.70ish, I think.

Oh well...

So anyway, results for today are:

VC gapped up and opened at $4.23, but you would have probably gotten in at about $4.17, and it closed about even from there.

NCS I got in at $25.55, set a sell for $26.92 that never filled, so I am still holding it at a whopping 1/4% gain
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Got in to the office a little late today.

No buy signals for symbols starting with A-M. Second half analysis is running now.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, second half is done. No new buy signals for today.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Do you think MCGC might be worth another go. The chart looks like support at $11.00.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
You're asking the wrong person. I need to learn to raed charts, so until I undestand them, I'm sticking to what works for me

Hopefully someone else could chime in.
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
JMO, CHART SAYS NO!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I stayed out of MCGC. Looks like RSI is on the downtrend. On to something new, I guess.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Just running my program now for today.

Went to the Pitt-Duke game at MSG last night and didn't get home and to bed until like 2:30...


 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, first half finished. No new signals. Second half should be done in like 20 minutes, I think.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Another small gain with one of your program's pics.

NCS, in Weds at $26.12 out today at $27.00.

Thanks!

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No signals from half # 2 either
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, looks like my NCS order to sell at $26.92 filled.

Combined result of two trades is +9.82%

Not a bad start!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
My combined on those same two is about 8% because I got in later on NCS and I guess I sold it a bit too soon. (but I was negative on that one as of yesterday so no worries)

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Congrats Jo. Hopefully I can get you back above water some day!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
VC (the other one from Monday) is having a nice day today. Up over 8%, and since it was down a bit from monday's open, just now crossed the 5% threshold (opened at 4.23 monday, now at $4.46)

Now 3 for 3 since tracking started (2 for 2 with buys).
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
On NCS, when you called that one on Wednesday, was that from Form 4's for transactions they did on 12/14/2008?

It looks like there is even more insider buying after that.

12-18
Purchase 2007-12-20
6:10 pm NCI BUILDING SYSTEMS INC NCS Hawes Frances Powell
(Exec. VP, CFO and Treasurer) 5,000 $25.34 $126,700 20,899
(Direct) View

2007-12-18
Purchase 2007-12-20
6:09 pm NCI BUILDING SYSTEMS INC NCS Fischer Keith E
(President & COO, RC Divisions) 3,000 $24.79 $74,378 11,845
(Direct) View
2007-12-20

Purchase 2007-12-20
6:08 pm NCI BUILDING SYSTEMS INC NCS FORBES GARY L
(Director) 2,000 $25.25 $50,500 14,521
(Direct) View
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yeah Jo, that's exactly right. Looks like they were buying more. But like a wise person once said "Plan your trade, and trade your plan", so I'm not considering buying back in, nor would I have held longer if I saw that before I sold

Hope you have a happy holiday season!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Yeah, sticking to the plan is good, but it still is hard to watch when it goes up afterwards. NCS already up another $1.23 since I sold.

Oh well, a little at a time.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No new signals for today
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Since it's now at $12.16, yes, I think it would have been worth getting into at $11.00

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
Do you think MCGC might be worth another go. The chart looks like support at $11.00.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by BooDog:
Nope, just watching on paper M8. I would be in for a few days on this one. Prolly out as a whole till next year - just a couple small positions here and there for now. Put me on Paper at 4.20 for 250. I saw your alert at 7:30 this am. This needs to break through the 50 RSI imo. If it does Cool!

---

quote:

---

PCola: Since it's now at $12.16, yes, I think it would have been worth getting into at $11.00

---

Hindsight's 20/20, eh?

Actually, I don't think it ever got down to $11.00 when I posted that. I was just thinking that support was $11.00.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Ah, I see that now. Well, then it would have been a GREAT buy at 11
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No signals for today either.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Look at your NCS pick, currently at $29.00.

We left the party early.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. Just noticed that. Up like 13.5% now... Can't get tempted though
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No signals again today. Not surprising that nothing popped up this week, since it seems like only about 5% of the country is at work
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New one for Wednesday: WCC

And yes, I am aware how pathetic it is that I am doing this at 11:45 on New Year's Eve...
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
lol... is only 11:18 here

lighten up, bro

prospero ano nuevo!
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Its 9:20 here...time is money..
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
You crazy non-East Coasters!
 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
New one for Wednesday: WCC

And yes, I am aware how pathetic it is that I am doing this at 11:45 on New Year's Eve...

---

LoL..I was here on christmass even and day....so I'm right there with you LoL
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I think for some of us it's an addiction...
 

---

Posted by wdcisco on :
 
Its a cathederal of learning. What can I say?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In for 200 shares of WCC at 39.60
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Closed at 39.35. Hopefully tomorrow is better, but I'm only down $50 at this point, so I'm not too worried.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
According to Yahoo, the % held by institutions is:

% Held by Institutions1: 106.50%

and the short position is:

Short % of Float (as of 11-Dec-07)3: 7.10%

Is it typical (or at least "normal") for big board stocks to have such large institutional ownership and short positions? Seems like the public float would be essentially negative, and there would be a possibility for an exaggerated upward move with buying pressure, correct?
 

---

Posted by bksundar on :
 
You can get up to date short info in :
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=wcc&submit=+GO+
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
thanks man. Good info.

By the way, it's funny to me, after playing mostly penny stocks, how much money is traded on the big boards. For example, I just looked at WCC and saw 116,000 in volume and was thought "Geez, is it halted or something", before realizing that 116,000 is over $4million in volume.
 

---

Posted by bksundar on :
 
Agreed. I Started the big board last year and made 100% in MELI, LDK, CGV, TASR, DRYS, SOLF, CSUN, CSIQ, STP , PBR, RIO, RTP etc etc
WHy even bother with pennies and I never lost sleep
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
very nice!
 

---

Posted by bksundar on :
 
Thanks. I had to, after all the penny losses of 2005/2006/2007 !!!!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Took a bath on WCC. Sold out today at $35.64 for a loss of 10%.

Running my analysis now to look for the next one.

Hopefully this one was the anomoly.
 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
PC, what inspired you to buy WCC and if I might asked when did you buy it?
chuck

I am assuming that you did buy .
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I bought at the open on 1/2, I think it was, and based on a bunch of things, but the final "trigger", for lack of a better word, was the $2million open market purchase by the VP of Operations:

2007-12-27
Purchase 2007-12-31
2:27 pm WESCO INTERNATIONAL INC WCC Rosenbaum Robert B
(Vice President, Operations) 50,000 $39.43 $1,971,500
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Wow, at least you aren't down as much as THAT guy!


 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
Thanks -- PC --
chuck
 

---

Posted by cactus33 on :
 
CATS..interesting inside buying lately

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/350440/000100547708000253/xslF345X02/edgar123 .xml

http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=5614957

http://www.insider-monitor.com/reports/insider-buys-20080111.html
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
cactus, I don't put stock into those types of purchases, because they are simply 10% holders, as opposed to true "insiders".

Good luck to you if you have any though!
 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
Cats --- what is unsettling to me about this particular stock. There is just no volume. If you do decide to go in with a buy.
chuck
 

---

Posted by cactus33 on :
 
I got some at 3.90 range and 3.60 the other day, i flipped the shares I got at 3.60 today at 3.76 eod. holding the rest. It traded like crap most of the day, but turned on a dime with vol, no news. It was a little strange how it turned. the vol issued doesnt bother me, semis have been nailed lately, vol should come..thanks ..jmho

quote:

---

Originally posted by chuck9:
Cats --- what is unsettling to me about this particular stock. There is just no volume. If you do decide to go in with a buy.
chuck

---

 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
Cactus , congratulations man.
chuck
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Looks like I missed SBGI last week. Got a false positive earlier, and so when I saw the symbol again I didn't look at it closely enough. Would have gotten in at the open on the 10th at about 8.46 and out at the close yesterday at about 8.66.

Would have been just over 2%.

Oh well...
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
just joined today and have spent most of the day researching some of your trades for entry and exits. can't really help with the entry since you use data provided to yoy for owner purchases but on exits let me suggest a technical trade set-up i use very successfully. use a fast stochastic set at 4,8,6 and another set at 12,3,3 an use a 1 or 3 month chart. sell when black line crosses back down below 80, best buy is when black line crosses red under 20. insiders don't always buy on the bottom. check a couple of your favorites and let me know what you think.

BEST IN YOUR TRADING:KENNETH RAY
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Will check it out over the next few days. Thanks for the advice Kenneth.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New signal for tomorrow: DBRN. I'm planning to buy in at the open.

Good luck if you get in.
 

---

Posted by glassman on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
New signal for tomorrow: DBRN. I'm planning to buy in at the open.

Good luck if you get in.

---

2008 General Stock Market Holiday Schedule:
New Year's Day Jan 1 (2008)
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day January 21
Presidents' Day February 18
Good Friday March 21
Memorial Day May 26
Independence Day July 4
Labor Day September 1
Thanksgiving Day November 27
Christmas Day (observed) December 25

Possible Early Closures:
Day After Thanksgiving November 28 (1:00)
Christmas Eve December 24 (1:00)
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks for the reminder. Guess I will get in on Tuesday
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 
Hey PC--Did you ever get those results back from you law school?!?!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Wasn't law school, it was a financial analyst exam. Results come out on Wednesday, I think.

Thanks for asking though!
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
what do you see in DBRN ?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Kenneth, read the first post in this thread. Let me know if you have more specific questions after that.

Take care.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Based on the way the market looks set to open, I'm going to set my order for DBRN 2-3% lower than the close from Friday and just keep an eye on it. Unfortunatley I have a dr appointment this morning, so I will be monitoring/trading from his office...
 

---

Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
 
With the Dow opening down over 500 points it may have a lot of momentum.Are you sure 2-3% isnt far enuf? Maybe closer to 7% range or will this be a long position? A lot of shorting will happen today and Ebay and Yahoo are among those.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Bottomfeeder, had I been at a computer I would have not placed an order premarket and would have just watched. But I was a bit lucky. Had an order in to buy at 10.25 and got filled at 10.13 at the open. Already sold at 10.65 for 5% in under a half hour!

Based on the rest of the market, I'll happily take it!
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 
NICE JOB PC!!!!! WTG!
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
Good call
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks guys. Was nice to see a winer amongst all the red. Turns out it hit almost 10% from when I bought, but I'm sticking to the plan.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
plan your trades, and trade your plans
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Ding ding ding. Exactly kenneth. Can't deviate or the whole premise blows up.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
About to cross $12.00...

Almost 20% up since yesterday's open.

D'oh!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Just a quick update:

Since I revamped my methodology on December 18th, there have been 6 buy signals.

I bought 3 that went up 5% within a week.

I missed one that went up 5% within a week (two signals occurred on the same day, so I only bought one of them)

I missed one that would have sold after a week for +2% (I just plain missed it. Would have bought it if I had noticed)

I bought one that was down 10% after a week.

So 4 of the 6 went up 5%, one went up 2% and one went down 10%.

And of course, because I loaded up on the wrong one, I'm net negative trading this strategy, but I don't expect that to be true for long, and hopefully you can see the potential in this method.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
by the way, found out Wednesday that I passed the first level CFA exam. I'm fairly surprised, given the fact that I studied for about two weeks, when they suggest 10-15 hours a week for 4 months...

So now I get to take the second exam in June. Yippee...

quote:

---

Originally posted by $tock Weazel:
Hey PC--Did you ever get those results back from you law school?!?!

---

 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
congrats...
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
BIG CONGRATS TO YOU
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
WTG PCola! Time to party now.


(but then buckle down for the next one!)

Jo
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
AWESOME Pcola!!!!!!

Major congrats!!!!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks guys!
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 
CONGRATS!!!!! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!
 

---

Posted by *Mag* on :
 
WTG my friend; from what I have observed you are a bright guy and june should yield the same passing outcome!

The force is with you fool, now don't get cocky!


 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL, great pic Mag, and thanks for the kind words

I didn't know you ever ventured onto the "regular" boards
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Congrats PCOLA.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks tman and Weazel
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Looks like I missed CWTR on Friday. Would have gotten in at about $4.74 on Friday and out at $4.98 today.

Actually, it hit $5.49 today, which would have been over 15%...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
2 new signals for today:

MW and RJF

Of the two, I will be buying RJF at the open. MW is already up almost 40% in the last 3 weeks, so I just feel more comfortable with the upside of RJF.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Wow, VERY strange action at the open. I had an order in to buy at 27.50. It raced up to 29.14 (almost 7%) almost immediately, and my order didn't fill. Then it came back down just as fast and my order filled at $27.23.

Sell order is set for $28.60
 

---

Posted by cactus33 on :
 
CATS from 3.60 now printing 4.60..

quote:

---

Originally posted by cactus33:
CATS..interesting inside buying lately

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/350440/000100547708000253/xslF345X02/edgar123 .xml

http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=5614957

http://www.insider-monitor.com/reports/insider-buys-20080111.html

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
nice job man! I've checked on it periodically and saw it pushing $4 the other day. You still holding?

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. Yeah, I know what you mean, but I wanted this thread to be just one method, with a hard and fast rule, to see how it performs over time. I've seen people start threads with intentions of tracking their trades, but they'll hit a bad patch and ditch the thread, or start a new one to "lose" the old performance, or keep changing what they trade based on, and I just don't see value in those types of threads except to whoever makes the particular post, because only they know why that stock was picked over all the rest.

Ideally I'd like this thread to get to the point where the performance has a proven track record, and people can understand why each trade is made.

I definitely don't want to discourage you, or anyone else, from posting on this thread, because I always follow the ones people put on here, and maybe we can come up with a way to supplement my rules to get some more activity on this thread, vs the one or two trades a week that my program outputs.

And don't be too lazy to post, throw 'em out there and let people learn from your experience.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I like the form 4 thread. It's good to see how a very specific strategy pans out. I like the "new stocks" thread for the same reason.

Jo
 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
nice range today,18.46 down to 16 .67.







chuck
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
What stock are you talking about?

quote:

---

Originally posted by chuck9:
nice range today,18.46 down to 16 .67.







chuck

---

 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
Sorry about that, I thought I posted it this morning on chuck big board. during the premarket hours.

Evidently, I did not, but here's the symbol - HTCH -
it actually had a better range than I thought . When everything was said and done 18.46 down to 16.10 was the true range for the day
chuck

I took a look and I did post it this morning at 8:14 that makes me feel a great deal better. Sometimes I think I'm losing it.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well, you're still losing it, you posted a range without ever mentioning the symbol on this thread
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well, WCC, the one that I got killed on recently, apparently released great financials today, and is up 12%. I coulda actually sold for a decent profit if I had held...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
MW is now at $25.18, so it has surpassed 5% from Tuesday's opening ($23.73 x 1.05 = $24.91).

Looks like I picked the wrong one to buy between this and RJF.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Your 5 days with RJF aren't done yet
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Shh, don't jinx me
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I only jinx you if I buy it.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
My shares sold at $28.60. I have to admit that I may have been lucky, because that is the high for the day so far, so it's possible that some people may have had orders in to sell at the same price that didn't fill.

Regardless, I am now out of RJF.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. Look at a chart for today for RJF. It hit my sell order at $28.60 and then fell off a cliff, down to under $28 and then rocketed back up to $28.60 again, all in about an hour.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I didn't want to tell you this because I didn't want to jinx you, but I DID buy some RFJ at $25.13. I sold half of it at $27.75 (which caused it to rise LOL) and the other half just filled at $28.61.

Today I feel like this trade will work out.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Haha. Yes, please only tell me after I've sold out
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Performance update:

Since December 18th there have been 9 "buy signals"
7 have gone up at least 5% within 1 week
1 was at +2% after 1 week
1 was at -10% after 1 week.

If you had put an equal amount in each, your gain would be about 27% in about 6 weeks not including commissions.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Ended at about $29. Not too bad for 4 days.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I was gonna tell you after I sold out but before you did, but it turned out that we sold out at the same time. I would've liked you to be the beneficiary of "the jo effect"

Thank you for the pick regardless. It's one I didn't lose money on

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
You've made money on a couple of these, right? Hopefully some people here are able to make a few bucks. I definitely feel like this strategy is a solid one. I think 8 of the last 9 have made money.

Slow and steady...
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Yes, I made profit on three of the three that I played (MCGC,NCS, RJF). Coming from me, that is an awesome record. Thanks.

JO
Edited to add:

Hmmm, I went back and looked at these. I hate to be tempted to up the percentage gain goal, but after taking the 5% each of them went up after I sold. (which is hardly unusual for me, but it seems your form-4 thing might be worth trying for more than 5%)

MCGC sold at $11.80 now $13.03 and change
NCS sold at $27.00 now $29.64
RJF sold at $28.61 now $28.93
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well jo, here's the reason for my 5%/5 day thing. I'm putting 100% into each one(100% of the money dedicated to this method, not 100% of my portfolio), so selling after 5% or 5 days frees my cash for the next one. As I explained to a coworker today, If my choice is 5% in 5 days or 20% in 6 months, I'll take the 5% in 5 days and do that hopefully once a week or more.

Basically there seemed to be a pattern of an initial spike quickly, then a pullback, or at least diminishing returns from there.

Plus, I try to take them off my watch list shortly after I sell, so I don't do just what you're contemplating
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
My personal goal is to get you back in the black in the next couple of months

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
Yes, I made profit on three of the three that I played (MCGC,NCS, RJF). Coming from me, that is an awesome record. Thanks.

---

 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Good idea, to take them off your watch list. I hadn't really looked at those other two until just now and I was happier with my profits before I did that! LOL

Yes, I'd love to get back in black. I just won't tell you which ones I buy, LOL.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
Jo?

stop. I mean it.

lol, we've been through this before, dear...

PC's pretty good at what he does. If I were you--which I'm not, so obviously you can tell me to fly a kite into the lake--if his trading style seems to work for you...give it a chance.

just my two cents' worth...

[ February 02, 2008, 01:00: Message edited by: T e x ]
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Wow, fly a kite AND jump in a lake? That's harsh

I think jo needs to learn to trade like a robot, get all emotions out of the way. It's funny, because I am notoriously impulsive, but I've gotten to the point where I have one account that I am trading solely with this method, and have been following the system exactly. (I won't mention the other accounts wher I still trade like a moron...)

Jo, it may mke sense for you to do something like that too. Have one account with more money for whatever system works for you, and another one to do your impulsive trading.

quote:

---

Originally posted by T e x:
Jo?

stop. I mean it.

lol, we've been through this before, dear...

PC's pretty good at what he does. If I were you--which I'm not, so obviously you can tell me to fly a kite into the lake--if his trading style seems to work for you...give it chance.

just my two cents' worth...

---

 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 


Yes, you are right. I need to take emotion out of the equation. I've heard it before. I am starting to do that more. I think the percentage rules help with this. I never am as upset with missing out on additional profit as I am with taking a loss. So I need to stick with a plan and slowly work my way back out of the hole. Then, when I have more capital I may be able to take the risk of staying in a bit longer to get a better return. But for now, heck, even if I could add $50.00 profit per day, that's still more than I make at work.

Thank you all for being concerned and for being helpful and not overly judgemental (Tex LOL). I can't really talk to anyone IRL about this right now. I told hubby he cannot look at the account until I fix it all.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Do you mind if I ask where you stand now? I know at one point you had said you were back to breakeven a couple of months ago, and then you ran bad again, right?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
[IMG]
Yes, you are right. I need to take emotion out of the equation. I've heard it before. I am starting to do that more. I think the percentage rules help with this. I never am as upset with missing out on additional profit as I am with taking a loss. So I need to stick with a plan and slowly work my way back out of the hole. Then, when I have more capital I may be able to take the risk of staying in a bit longer to get a better return. But for now, heck, even if I could add $50.00 profit per day, that's still more than I make at work.

Thank you all for being concerned and for being helpful and not overly judgemental (Tex LOL). I can't really talk to anyone IRL about this right now. I told hubby he cannot look at the account until I fix it all.

Jo

---

quote:

---

Then, when I have more capital I may be able to take the risk of staying in a bit longer to get a better return.

---

Jo? in the cold, grey light of Saturday? does this bother you at all?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thank you for pointing that out Tex, that's exactly the thinking that's probably gotten her (and a billion other traders) into trouble in the past.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
PC- think the 5in5 rule has worked so far for you keep it up till it proves it no longer works, i do the same put i dont buy metals or mining stocks, also i dont buy on days the market opens down,keep testing your theories and keep a log of what you bought and what you passed on so when this stops working you have a backup plan.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Good advice kenneth. I still have a mental note to go back over another one of your posts, but haven't gotten a chance yet.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Just saw this. Another small insider buy for RJF.

Feb 06, 2008 (Vickers Stock Research via COMTEX) -- Document Processing Date: February 05, 2008

Stock Name: Raymond James Financial Inc Stock CUSIP: 754730109

Filer: SIMMONS, HARDWICK Position: Director

Stock Symbol: RJF Exchange: NYSE Stock Type: COM

Transaction period: February 01, 2008 Trade amount: 5000 shares Trade type: Buy Trade price range: $28.511

Shares still held: 30031 shares Own Type: Direct
 

---

Posted by chuck9 on :
 
PC - do you ever use the Bollinger band, money flow Index, R-square for confirmation of the money flow Index, whether it be up or down, and moving average band?

These are some of the tools that I used to trade. Not necessarily in that order.
chuck
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Chuck, not at this point. I have it on my list of things to learn more about. (Along with about 4 million other things... I need to clone myself.)
 

---

Posted by cactus33 on :
 
Entered LXRX eod, no inside action..strictly a chart play for me.. may wanna watch SIRF as takeover target also... doh !
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Good luck, cactus!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New signal for today: MWIV
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Unfortunately I got in right at the open at $36.72. It's down about 1.5% since then.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
don't like the charts yet on this one, will wait maybe the buyer knows something yet to be announced, good luck
 

---

Posted by cactus33 on :
 
LXRX, Great day..i am all out up over 8%, I will take it in this market, but chart is looking good..Still in SIRF, that one is a little riskier, but I still like 9.00 eventually..

quote:

---

Originally posted by cactus33:
Entered LXRX eod, no inside action..strictly a chart play for me.. may wanna watch SIRF as takeover target also... doh !

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Bailed on MWIV at 35.97 today to lose about 2%. Overall up about 25% after 10 trades.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Forgot to post this yesterday, but PNSN triggered yesterday. I bought it at the open today because it was still below what yesterday's entry would have been. I got my program kicked off a little late this morning, so I had already gotten in PNSN when this one popped up.

KNL is another one for today. Would have gotten in at the open of 13.60, but I already bought PNSN.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
PC- looks like pnsn might make it as high as $11.50 chart is ok not great good luck,dont like chart on other pick (knl)
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks for the input Ken. Pitt plays Marquette tonight at 9, and if they win I'll be fired up and unable to sleep so I'll check out the charts and try to see what you're seeing. If they lose, I'll be pissed off and unable to sleep, so I'll do the same thing...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
What do you tend to look at, daily charts? hourly? Something else?
 

---

Posted by stockmman on :
 
Check out the form 4's filed on NXTI over ythe last months. Insiders have bought a ton of shares and I expect some more form fours filed shortly indicating more buying at current levels.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
PC- i use the daily charts with a fast stochastic setting of (4,8,6) and another of (12,3,3) can also use parabolic, and MACD, but find stoch the best, use a chart of the last 30 days to get a good view and then change to 2mo;3mo; 4mo;and so on to see how often it works.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I only se one buy since mid-October. Am I looking at something different than you?

quote:

---

Originally posted by stockmman:
Check out the form 4's filed on NXTI over ythe last months. Insiders have bought a ton of shares and I expect some more form fours filed shortly indicating more buying at current levels.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by kennethray:
just joined today and have spent most of the day researching some of your trades for entry and exits. can't really help with the entry since you use data provided to yoy for owner purchases but on exits let me suggest a technical trade set-up i use very successfully. use a fast stochastic set at 4,8,6 and another set at 12,3,3 an use a 1 or 3 month chart. sell when black line crosses back down below 80, best buy is when black line crosses red under 20. insiders don't always buy on the bottom. check a couple of your favorites and let me know what you think.

BEST IN YOUR TRADING:KENNETH RAY

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
ONNN is a new one for today. I will not be buying, because I'm still holding PNSN, but would buy otherwise.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Out of PNSN at 11.04
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
WTG P
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks. Slow and steady... I'm pretty happy with the results of this method so far.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
ZION a new one for today, In at 51.70
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
pc- dont know how to paste chart so you can see but go to stockcharts.com and use info i gave you, you should see clearly if not send me note
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, I see what you're saying, but still have some questions. First, Aren't there only two variable for Stochs? why do you list 3? Also, when you say "sell when black line crosses back down below 80, best buy is when black line crosses red under 20. " Are you talking about the first set (4,8,6) or the second (12,3,3) or both?
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
stoch has 3 numbers, stoch is on a scale just like "rsi" if lines cross up when below or around 20,is a buy signal, or if starts down when above 80 is a sell sign
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Kenneth, I think you're wrong about that. Try changing your last number to like a million and I don't think the chart will change.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
have always used 3 sets of numbers,started on worden bros. may just be there system, have you figured it out
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I'm not at my computer right now, but either tonight or tomorrow, I'll check it out.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
charting?
What're you guys hashing out?
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
looks like you may have to go the full 5 days on zion, think it may it 52.50 on your last day
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
pc- you were right, 2 numbers didnt change the chart
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Here you go ken:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stoc hastic_oscillator

Key part: "The Full Stochastic Oscillator is more advanced and more flexible than it's Fast and Slow cousins. You can even use it to duplicate the other versions. For example, a (14, 3) Fast Stochastic is equivalent to a (14, 1, 3) Full Stochastic and a (12, 2) Slow Stochastic is equal to a (12, 3, 2) Full Stochastic."
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Just got stopped out of ZION at $49.40. Had a stop order in to keep from getting a margin call. Lost about 5% on that one.
 

---

Posted by kennethray on :
 
PC- will look and study that,trying to find something that finds and picks bottoms for me, it seems to work pretty good for me to use the fast stoch with the other indicators i use. thanks for the tip,much appreciated
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Oh I'm not knocking your method, just saying that possibly you were using Full Stochs in the past, and didn't realize you only need two numbers when you transfered to Fast.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Here you go ken:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stoc hastic_oscillator


Key part: "The Full Stochastic Oscillator is more advanced and more flexible than it's Fast and Slow cousins. You can even use it to duplicate the other versions. For example, a (14, 3) Fast Stochastic is equivalent to a (14, 1, 3) Full Stochastic and a (12, 2) Slow Stochastic is equal to a (12, 3, 2) Full Stochastic."

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by captain america:
hey pcola77! what the heck is a SC 13G? am i right in thinking its a stock holder reporting what % they own of a company? do they report when they no longer own a certain % too?.. tia

---

page 3-44

http://www.sec.gov/info/edgar/forms/edgform.pdf
 

---

Posted by a surfer on :
 
http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/34-48626.htm

About 1/3 down explains the rules of 13G better Captn A.
 

---

Posted by captain america on :
 
hey thanks allot surfer! much appreciated
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
ZGEN and EQIX are signals for today. I'm not sure yet which one I will be buying. ZGEN is about $9.50 a share and EQIX is about $70 a share.

Edit: I was wrong about ZGEN. Missed something with that one, so EQIX is the only one that is triggered for today.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In EQIX at $69.15
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Sold EQIX at $72.61 for 5% gain
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Buy Signals: 15
5% Gainers: 10
G/L of other 3: -6.2%
Total G/L: 43.8%


All of you guys are up 43% in the last 2.5 months, right?

C'mon guys, follow the money
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
can someone smack me, I'm getting a bit too cocky
 

---

Posted by a surfer on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
can someone smack me, I'm getting a bit too cocky

---

Nothing wrong with cocky if you can back it up P...

43% is worth being cocky over.


Oh but I'll smack you anyway
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. Thanks surfer. Hope I can keep it up...
 

---

Posted by stocktrader22 on :
 
Wish I could buy your program lol.
 

---

Posted by bksundar on :
 
Why not ? The program is based on one of the useful business rules out there (Insider buying) and is logical.
AT least some of the users will be willing to buy.....
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
22, why buy it when I post it here for free???

Although I have actually been tempted. I have an e-mail list of about 30 friends/family that don't read these boards that I send heads-ups to. Would be nice to get a few bucks from them

By the way, if you want me to add you to the list, just PM me.

(Bob, and other Mods, let me know if it's not cool to do that, but I know some people can't check the boards from work and would be nice if they could keep up with it.)
 

---

Posted by bksundar on :
 
Keep posting it for free and when it works for a year or so, start turning it into an ATM, by charging fees!!!!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. I dout I could do that. But "never say never", as they say...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
NFP is a new one for tomorrow. Should be an interesting one. Insiders bought a bunch last week in the $28 dollar range, then on Friday they were downgraded by one analyst due to the president of the company changing roles, and the stock price went down over 15% to under $24. Then the ex-president wrote a letter to company shareholders and employees basically saying that he still thinks that the company is in good shape and that he just wants to spend more time with his family. It went back up about 3% in after hours trading.

So I have no idea what to think of this one, but I will be buying at the open, unless it gaps up a lot.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In at $23.84
 

---

Posted by stockmman on :
 
More insider buying on NXTI. Another form 4 filed
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yeah, but none of them are for even $6,000. Doesn't seem very exciting to me.

quote:

---

Originally posted by stockmman:
More insider buying on NXTI. Another form 4 filed

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Damn, when the market opened I was watching NFP and for a buy point, I said to myself, "if it goes as low as $23.50 or as high as $24, I'll buy then." So what do I do? Get bored in about 10 seconds and buy at $23.84 only to watch it hit $23.50 a few seconds later. Had I gotten in at $23.50, I would have hit my 5% just a little while later. As it stands now, I am still up 1.25%, so not awful, but could have cashed out and been stress free by now...
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
lol, plan yer work...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
2 new ones for today. Got a late start running my program.

STMP and NIHD. I am still holding NFP, so I will not be buying these
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
RJF had two more insider buys reported, one for 12,000 shares and one for 2,000 shares
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
And I hear one crazy chick is still holding out hope for a huge rebound
 

---

Posted by jaymac21 on :
 
are you only holding onto NFP right now?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yes JayMac.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Two new ones for today. LTM and ICTG.

I have a cold this week, so I've been getting into work a bit later and thus starting the program later. Sorry the last couple of alerts have been after the market opened...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
RJF had two more insider buys reported, one for 12,000 shares and one for 2,000 shares

---

quote:

---

And I hear one crazy chick is still holding out hope for a huge rebound

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by TimW:
see if I can turn this trend around!

---

I hope you don't mean my trend of good returns!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Update after STMP:

Buy Signals: 20
4 pending
5% Gainers: 11
G/L of other 5: -6.2%
Total G/L: 48.8%
 

---

Posted by jaymac21 on :
 
i thought you werent holding STMP?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I wasn't. This is a running tally of all signals, whether I buy them or not, and assuming putting the same $ amount in each. In real life I only buy ones I can (like I skipped STMP because I was holding NFP), and I roll gains into the next one. So there are two separate aggregates going on.

Sorry for the confusion.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
For the record, I am currently selling out of a bunch of losing positions and moving a bunch of money into one broker (right now I have like 8 of them...), and using some money from a work bonus and tax refund to have one set account that I do al the trading of this method. Once I get all the money organized I plan to start posting the actual trades, so we can see how it goes "for real", as opposed to a more hypothetical approach like the above % is based on. (Although I am confident that no number is exaggerated to make it look better than it would in actuality.)

Part of the problem is that I'm a moron, and so sometimes I tried to hold longer, or wait for better entry and eitehr got in or out worse than I should have or not at all. Part of my assumption with this method is that otehr people are more disciplined than I am

Although I am going to try to be much more mechanistic once I have it set up that way...
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
NFP missed my 5% target by 3 cents today. But I'm sticking with the plan. Tommorrow is another day.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Guess you were smarter on your entry than me. Hope we both can get out tomorrow.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Maybe not smarter, just got in a day later than you so I got the $23.50 entry.

Jo
 

---

Posted by TimW on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:

quote:

---

Originally posted by TimW:
see if I can turn this trend around!

---

I hope you don't mean my trend of good returns!

---

I meant my trend, which was a titled essay "how to turn 40,000 into 6,500 in just under two years".

Your idea here is so simple and common sense based im going to just have to give it a try and see how it goes.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
As a follow up, basically the program is up 48%. I, on the otherhand, am not...

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
I wasn't. This is a running tally of all signals, whether I buy them or not, and assuming putting the same $ amount in each. In real life I only buy ones I can (like I skipped STMP because I was holding NFP), and I roll gains into the next one. So there are two separate aggregates going on.

Sorry for the confusion.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
Maybe not smarter, just got in a day later than you so I got the $23.50 entry.

Jo

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Nothing other than me losing my shirt on NFP

quote:

---

Originally posted by jaymac21:
anything new for the day?

---

quote:

---

Then you should already be out. $23.50 * 1.05 = $24.68. It hit $24.77 yesterday, why were you still holding?

---

I was including the commission in the 5%, so my sell is set for $24.80.

Well, well, lost all those gains. That was a dumb mistake.

Well, the 5 days aren't up yet.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
How much do you pay for commission?

by the way, your sell point was over 5.5% from your buy, or looking at it anotehr way, you tried to get 10% more than the "system" calls for.

And I've certainly never done that! (at least not yet today...)
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Okay, I had to go look and see why I had the sell at $24.80. It was because I bought at 23.53, not 23.50

So
200 * 23.53 + $16.00 commission ($8.00 each way) would need $27.79 for to get a 5.01% gain. (I guess I rounded up and added a penny.)

I see now though that I should just forget about the commission and go with when the STOCK goes up 5% because the commission could make the gains more or less depending on how big a position I would have.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:

I see now though that I should just forget about the commission and go with when the STOCK goes up 5% because the commission could make the gains more or less depending on how big a position I would have.

Jo

---

Ding ding ding.

My brother started with like $500 and the firt one he bought was, say $24 so he bought 20 shares. He wanted his account to have 5% more, or $525 when he was done. So he needed to make $35 on $480 ($10 commission), or 7.3% which is obviously quite different from 5%.


I would think it would be rare for a few pennies to mean this big of a difference, but it's worth thinking about for next time.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Yeah nothing like seeing a couple hundred in profits disappear over 3 pennies!!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
WOW! LOOK AT THIS INSIDER BUY!!! SUCH CONFIDENCE HE MUST HAVE IN THE COMPANY!!!

quote:

---

Form 4: Update Filing for Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF)
10:08 p.m. 03/06/2008 Provided by


Mar 06, 2008 (Vickers Stock Research via COMTEX) -- Document Processing Date: March 05, 2008

Stock Name: Raymond James Financial Inc Stock CUSIP: 754730109

Filer: SAYLER, VAN C. Position:

Stock Symbol: RJF Exchange: NYSE Stock Type: COM

Transaction period: March 04, 2008 Trade amount: 8 shares Trade type: Buy Trade price range: $22.410

Shares still held: 8 shares Own Type: Indirect

---

 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
that's funny. I at least try for 100 shares!

...oh wait... those are under $10 for me! lol

What was it Warren Buffett said.... "Noah did not start building the Ark when it was raining"... sumtin like dat.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Ugh. I feel like I'm in Deliverance right now. Anybody got a banjo?

My a** hurts...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Damn, what a rebound, NFP was down like 5% at the open, now up 1%. That's almost a $1,200 swing for me... Hopefully it'll keep up.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Sold out of NFP at the close at $23.62 for a loss of about 1%.

Current tally:

Buy Signals: 21
3 pending (NIHD down 7.3% currently, LTM down 4.8% currently, ICTG down 2.3% currently)
5% Gainers: 11
G/L of other 6: -7.3%
Total G/L: 47.7%
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Signal for today is ABK. this one is a bit strange though. It was trading at about $7 most of Friday, then there was a big volume spike and, it apparently closed at $9.50. I am probably going to put an order in to buy at around $7, but wouldn't buy much higher than that. If I miss it, then I miss it. It looks like it will be opening at around $7.90 today, so I'm guessing that I won't be getting in this one, but I will be watching it.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
ABK went up as high as $8.18. Just dipped below $7, so I got in at 6.98.

Wish me luck...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Geez, crazy morning for ABK. Already hit 5% from my buy, so I am out. Now at $7.34
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 
Hey PC!

Have you ever thought of reversing your form 4 method?

If an insider sells you short the next day...??

Good luck playing with real money.

-$w
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No, because insiders sell at like a 20:1 ratio to buys. And most CEOs sell shares not because the company is going to do badly, but because they are paid in stock, so sellign shares is basically their salary. There are a lot of studies out there that watching insider sells is of no value.

Thanks for the thought though. Post if you have any other questions/suggestions.

quote:

---

Originally posted by $tock Weazel:
Hey PC!

Have you ever thought of reversing your form 4 method?

If an insider sells you short the next day...??

Good luck playing with real money.

-$w

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Would have sodl NIHD at the close today of $34.40. Would have been a loss of 13.8%.

Current tally:

Buy Signals: 21
2 pending (LTM down 8.8% currently, ICTG down 1.4% currently)
5% Gainers: 12
G/L of other 7: -21.1%
Total G/L: 38.9%
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Would have sold out of ICTG at 8.86 and LTM at $28.45 today for a gain of 0.8% and a loss of 5.1% respectively.

Current tally:

Buy Signals: 21
5% Gainers: 12
G/L of other 9: -25.4%
Total G/L: 34.6%
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Two signals for today: FTEK and GVA.

GVA is already up 6% since the triggering insider buy, and FTEK doesn't have a lot of volume to it, so I'm not sure which to play.

I think I will buy FTEK but if GVA gets back down to the $29 range I may buy that too.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In FTEK at $17.10
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
GVA is getting close to $29. If I was buyign I'd put my order in at $29.10.

Edit, just noticed that $29.10 was the low of the day, so I won't register it as a buy unless it drops to $29.09.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Damn it! Missed it by a freaking penny. If it had hit $29.09 I would have been "in" and it is now over $31, so I would have cashed out my 5% in just a few hours.

Oh well, can't win them all...
 

---

Posted by blockbuster on :
 
How 'bout that UHCR LOL.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Had a nice run. I predict that it doesn't get over .15, and is back under .07 within a week.

But hey, I've been wrong plenty of times.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Two more for today.

LVLT and CVH. Of the two, I'd buy LVLT. CVH is already up about 7% in the last couple of days.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In LVLT at $1.86
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
When I said within a week, I meant within a day...

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Had a nice run. I predict that it doesn't get over .15, and is back under .07 within a week.

But hey, I've been wrong plenty of times.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by coalkickin:
First off...very interesting idea PCOLA...awesome research. Someone earlier mentioned the possibility of shorting a stock...I was doing some digging, researching some previous form 4's and the subsequent effect on the pps. I came across DWCH...check it out...The CEO began dumping on 1/02/08 and continued to do so a little at a time all month long....Literally almost everyday there was a Form4 filed, selling by the CEO...This continued until 1/30/07...Then Earnings were announced missing their estimates by .06. He knew it was coming, price dropped from $7.19 down to $3.57...check it out.

---

Yeah baby..that what I'm talkin' about!!!!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Interesting. I'm on my blackberry now, but next time I'm at the computer I'll check it out.

How would you distinguish between someone selling from insider knowledge of something bad vs just selling to cash out because they have a ton of company stock?

Give me some logic to test and I'll see if I can run it through my data and see if you guys are onto something.

(My gut feeling is that there's not much value in watching sells, but it may look like it recently since if you shorted pretty much anything recently it would have made you money.)

quote:

---

Originally posted by coalkickin:
First off...very interesting idea PCOLA...awesome research. Someone earlier mentioned the possibility of shorting a stock...I was doing some digging, researching some previous form 4's and the subsequent effect on the pps. I came across DWCH...check it out...The CEO began dumping on 1/02/08 and continued to do so a little at a time all month long....Literally almost everyday there was a Form4 filed, selling by the CEO...This continued until 1/30/07...Then Earnings were announced missing their estimates by .06. He knew it was coming, price dropped from $7.19 down to $3.57...check it out.

---

quote:

---

Shockingly, FTEK went up like 14% today, and easily surpassed the 5% threshold.

---

Figures, I sold it off about $1.00 ago! But at least it was green!

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Poor jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LVLT hit $1.96, which is over 5% from $1.86.

Now at 49.6% in 3 months to the day.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Awesome PCola.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks Jo! Hope you've been able to capitalize on some of them.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
After I take my break from the market, I will try again with some of these. They have worked out when I follow your method exactly. But, remember I screwed up with NFP by adding the commissioninto the 5%. Had I not done that I would have had a $238.00 or so profit and not the $1038 loss I took today!

STUPID, STUPID, STUPID!

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Um wow, that's quite a difference... I can't imagine that would happen very often, but it does seem to be your luck.

Hopefully you take advantage of the break to read and practice with fake money, so you come back stonger. (Or actually, you should probably take a complete break for a while first, not even looking at the markets, and THEN come back liek I said, before jumping back in with real money)

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
After I take my break from the market, I will try again with some of these. They have worked out when I follow your method exactly. But, remember I screwed up with NFP by adding the commissioninto the 5%. Had I not done that I would have had a $238.00 or so profit and not the $1038 loss I took today!

STUPID, STUPID, STUPID!

Jo

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
By the way, I've been trading on margin, and with a couple of otehr "non-form4" trades thrown in here and there, my account is now up over 100% for the year. Just have to do that 4 more times to get to my $100,000 goal from $3,000. At this pace, I will hit it before the end of this year.

Haha, wouldn't that be awesome?
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
Yes, that would be awesome. Congrats so far, my friend.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Too bad I started that account such a small amount. Woulda been nice if I had STARTED with $100K

Thanks though!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
SBKC hit 5% already, and is now at $7.50 from $7.00 yesterday.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
two new ones for today, DXCM and SBKC. Both have relatively low volume, and since I'm holding other things I won't be buying eitehr, but of the two, I'd probably buy SBKC because it looks liek financial stocks will be doing well today.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by $tock Weazel:
Check out joyg for a short!
Major insider selling!

Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Disposition (Non Open Market) 66.5000 1,292
Mar 7, 2008 OLSEN MICHAEL SOfficer direct Option Execute 17.3900 to 41.2500 13,750
Mar 7, 2008 OLSEN MICHAEL SOfficer direct Sell 66.4500 to 66.9301 13,750
Mar 7, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Option Execute 17.3900 to 30.3900 17,100
Mar 7, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Sell 67.1400 to 67.9385 27,100
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.5500 to 70.6000 800
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.0100 to 70.8700 22,823
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.2000 to 70.5000 45,493
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Option Execute 17.3900 108,750
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.5100 to 71.1000 51,157
Mar 12, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Option Execute 41.2500 6,000
Mar 12, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Sell 69.9200 to 69.9500 6,000
Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Sell 67.5000 to 67.5700 2,423
Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Option Execute 11.7800 to 17.3900 34,265
Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Sell 67.2485 to 68.1200 36,775

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
yeah, but he's been selling a bunch every month for almost 2 years. On your theory you would have been shorting it from $50 all the way up to over $70.

Good luck, but I think your idea is more likely to burn you than make you money.

quote:

---

Originally posted by $tock Weazel:
Check out joyg for a short!
Major insider selling!

Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Disposition (Non Open Market) 66.5000 1,292
Mar 7, 2008 OLSEN MICHAEL SOfficer direct Option Execute 17.3900 to 41.2500 13,750
Mar 7, 2008 OLSEN MICHAEL SOfficer direct Sell 66.4500 to 66.9301 13,750
Mar 7, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Option Execute 17.3900 to 30.3900 17,100
Mar 7, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Sell 67.1400 to 67.9385 27,100
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.5500 to 70.6000 800
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.0100 to 70.8700 22,823
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.2000 to 70.5000 45,493
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Option Execute 17.3900 108,750
Mar 13, 2008 HANSON JOHN NILSDirector direct Sell 70.5100 to 71.1000 51,157
Mar 12, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Option Execute 41.2500 6,000
Mar 12, 2008 WINKLEMAN DENNIS ROfficer direct Sell 69.9200 to 69.9500 6,000
Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Sell 67.5000 to 67.5700 2,423
Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Option Execute 11.7800 to 17.3900 34,265
Mar 7, 2008 READINGER MARK EOfficer direct Sell 67.2485 to 68.1200 36,775

---

---

hmmm..pcola I don't where you get your info from...

but take a look here:

http://pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=joyg

Most of the sells in the past were "automatic sells"..

These guys have sold over 300,000 shares in the past 2 1/2 weeks. On there own! No automatic sells! Thats around 20 million dollars+.

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Okay, well good luck!
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 

 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 
I'm still waiting for Pcola7 to make the.....

"PCola77s New and Super Duper Greatly Improved Form-4 thread"

The first one was interesting....

The second not so much....

But the "PCola77s New and Super Duper Greatly Improved Form-4 thread"

I'm sure will be much better
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Sorry that over 50% in 3 months isn't good enough for you Ace. I sure wish I was as good at this as you are. Oh wait, you've never had an original thought in your trading life, you just piggyback on other people. But hey, I'm sure you're consistently doubling your money every 3 months. Which name on the Forbes 400 list is yours again?
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
Any system that makes money is a good one. I'm still working on one that works for me! One good trade can make up for a few bad ones but some day I'd like to start heading in the right direction!
 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 
Why reinvent the wheel...there are already proven systems that work!!!

While you're strugling to find a system that works...you can learn a proven system and start making money quicker
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well I'm perfectly content with my POS system that's returned 50% in 3 months. Glad to hear you're doing so much better than that. Sucks that money can't keep you from being an as*hole.

By the way, your 3 most recent "calls" CPCL, PNTR and FRPT all look pretty good, LMAO. Amazing how well you claim your trading is when you consantly post losers.

Oh well, no harm done, you're not the first "internet tough guy" to hang around here, and you won't be the last.
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by BooDog:
Any system that makes money is a good one. I'm still working on one that works for me! One good trade can make up for a few bad ones but some day I'd like to start heading in the right direction!

---

Nice post Boo!

Find your own strategy guys. Thats what I'm trying to do.

P.s. Pcola--I keep getting the idea that eventually after you perfect this form 4 thing. You'll set up your computer to automatically buy and sell for you? Is that the idea here?

That would be awesome.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No, doubt it will ever get that far. There's a bit of a manual thought process that goes into it at the end to confirm the signal, although, yeah, that would be ideal!
 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Well I'm perfectly content with my POS system that's returned 50% in 3 months. Glad to hear you're doing so much better than that. Sucks that money can't keep you from being an as*hole.

By the way, your 3 most recent "calls" CPCL, PNTR and FRPT all look pretty good, LMAO. Amazing how well you claim your trading is when you consantly post losers.

Oh well, no harm done, you're not the first "internet tough guy" to hang around here, and you won't be the last.

---

CPSL is still even for me...bought in the 3.40's.

PNTR...wasn't realy a call...I posted news and that's about it...never realy got any interst or volume.

FRPT...presents plenty of opportunties.....Look at thursday!

And I'm an A-hole????? Don't make me dig up all the posts between me and you......you started with me from the begging
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Go ahead Acehole, dig away. Post all the times I asked for clarification of your posts and you reacted like I was talking sh*t on your mom. I swear you're more sensitive than my 4 year old daughter.
 

---

Posted by Jenna on :
 
Hey PC!!!

50% in the past 3 months???? Holy Moly!!! I think that is great!!! Sounds like a winner....& it's nice of you to share your system with others so they can benefit too....


 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jenna:
Hey PC!!!

50% in the past 3 months???? Holy Moly!!! I think that is great!!! Sounds like a winner....& it's nice of you to share your system with others so they can benefit too....

---

HI Jenna....If my meomory serves me correctly....you and you sister look mighty fine....do you have any updated pics???

What can a Wound specialist do for a Big Ace-Hole???
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
OMRI and IDT are signals for today. IDT has fairly low volume, so I will be buying OMRI at the open.

Unfortunately, I missed GFIG on Thursday, which looks like it would have hit its 5% before lunch...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
OMRI gapped up too high for me to buy, and IDT dipped, so I got in IDT at 3.84
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Out at $4.04 Now it's at $4.40, not sure what just happened in the last few seconds. Oh well...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
OMRI now at $13.30, so it is also up over 5% from the open.

Current tally:

Buy Signals: 29
1 Pending (DXCM currently down 5.5%)
5% Gainers: 18
G/L of other 10: -26.7%
Total G/L: 63.3%
 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ace of Spades:

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Well I'm perfectly content with my POS system that's returned 50% in 3 months. Glad to hear you're doing so much better than that. Sucks that money can't keep you from being an as*hole.

By the way, your 3 most recent "calls" CPCL, PNTR and FRPT all look pretty good, LMAO. Amazing how well you claim your trading is when you consantly post losers.

Oh well, no harm done, you're not the first "internet tough guy" to hang around here, and you won't be the last.

---

CPSL is still even for me...bought in the 3.40's.

PNTR...wasn't realy a call...I posted news and that's about it...never realy got any interst or volume.

FRPT...presents plenty of opportunties.....Look at thursday!

And I'm an A-hole????? Don't make me dig up all the posts between me and you......you started with me from the begging

---

.......my my my....what have we here.....A monster move by CPSL only a couple days after Ace of Spades called the low....LMFAO

Instead of picking fights with me...mabey learn a thing or two
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
Check it out P. You prolly don't need this but gives a lil bit on the exams.
http://www.investopedia.com/professionals/
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
WTG Ace, nice move!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I'm confused. My 5% per trade is "sh*t", but your ~15% on CPSL is a "monster move"? You rode the short bus to school, didn't you?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ace of Spades:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ace of Spades:

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Well I'm perfectly content with my POS system that's returned 50% in 3 months. Glad to hear you're doing so much better than that. Sucks that money can't keep you from being an as*hole.

By the way, your 3 most recent "calls" CPCL, PNTR and FRPT all look pretty good, LMAO. Amazing how well you claim your trading is when you consantly post losers.

Oh well, no harm done, you're not the first "internet tough guy" to hang around here, and you won't be the last.

---

CPSL is still even for me...bought in the 3.40's.

PNTR...wasn't realy a call...I posted news and that's about it...never realy got any interst or volume.

FRPT...presents plenty of opportunties.....Look at thursday!

And I'm an A-hole????? Don't make me dig up all the posts between me and you......you started with me from the begging

---

.......my my my....what have we here.....A monster move by CPSL only a couple days after Ace of Spades called the low....LMFAO

Instead of picking fights with me...mabey learn a thing or two

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by BooDog:
Check it out P. You prolly don't need this but gives a lil bit on the exams.
http://www.investopedia.com/professionals/

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ace of Spades:
Instead of picking fights with me...mabey learn a thing or two [/QB]

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New one for today. My program kept crashing this morning for some reason, so I just got done the analysis. NEXC is up a bit from the open, but I am getting in now, at around $3.40 and wouldn't recommend getting in much, if any, higher than that.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
NEXC is currently at 3.64, and my sell order at $3.57 executed while I was at lunch.

Current Tally:

Buy Signals: 29
5% Gainers: 19
G/L of other 10: -26.7%
Total G/L: 68.3%
 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 
Pcola...CPSL went from the 3.40's when I bought to 4.61....That's 33% not 15%....it's simple math bro on wed....33% in 3 days

Where your system made 50% in months not days
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
you have a hard time with clocks, don't you?
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
LMAO!!!!!!
 

---

Posted by Free Muney on :
 
pcola how do you find the candidates? can you scan the form 4's? i realize this may be redundant. been watching this thread for awhile. seems tedious to look by stocks individually.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I wrote a prgorma to download them, look through the form 4s for all 8000 stocks or so, and spit out a list of ones that fit my list of ~13 criteria. Then I look at those manually each morning to check for a few more things that were too hard to code, and I also check to make sure nothing looks weird, and if not, I buy them. Daily download only takes a few minutes, program takes about 1/2 hour, then I look at 10 or so each day that have passed all but the manual criteria, and if I find any, I post them here, on my IHub board, and e-mail them to a few friends/family. The whole process probably takes an hour. I get in to work between 8 and 8:15, so most of the time I am able to tell anyone who's interested before the market opens, but sometimes somethign goes wrong and I don't get the list out until afterwards.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
PCola77 - Can I get on your e-mail list ? I will PM you my direct e-mail address, if it is okay.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yeah, go for it.

For the record, to anyone who's wondering, I try to send the e-mail and post here at basically the same time. The e-mail was meant for a couple of friends and family who don't read this board, and since then a few more people have been added that may not check the board often enough to see if I had a new signal for that day. But I never send the e-mail "earlier" than I post, or do any kind of frontloading (and I always try to post before the market opens, so I couldn't do it even if someone didn't trust my word.)
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New one for today is CKH
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In CKH at 82.75
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
Pcola, did you get out when it was at 86.90 today?

Nem
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I'd like to lie and say yes, but sometimes at the open, orders are filled in a way that is sketchy at best, as MMs don't all seem to have orders ready right away, so no, I did not. Hopefully it will still get there in the next couple of days.
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
Yeah, I actually got in on that stock before I found this message board I got in at 82.82 a couple days ago. Your form 4 method is very similiar to something I've been doing for a month, I'm not sure what other indicators you're looking at, but I usually target stocks that drop significantly then have insiders buying large amounts of common stock. I also look at the avg daily volume to make sure the stock is fluid and I'm not going to have to wait weeks for it to make the 5-6% increase. I'm also into BMTI right now, waiting for it to make the big gain everyone is expecting, espcially since the Insiders still have faith in it.

I still have some faith in CKH, but I dont't know, going to see how it does today but I might get out once it breaks $86 again.

Good Luck
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Cool. Good luck to you as well. For your recent strategy, do you have a method to systematically pull data, or just look randomly and if you see one, buy it?
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
Well I'm not looking into the Form4s until after i see a stock thats made a big drop...i'm finding the big drops simply by using stock screeners on websites like marketwatch. I do have Java programming experience, so I'm thinking of putting my own program together to download the raw data off the SEC FTP and search it for large common stock purchases by Company Insiders. I just got to find the time to do it. I'm probably thinking along the same lines as you, but you've got a 6 month jump start on me. Its good to see this actually works long term, this thread has been most useful.

Nemesis
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Cool. Good luck to you. It took me months to come up with a system that works for me, so don't get too down if you don't find somethign right away, and make sure you test as much as possible over as long a timeframe as you can, so you don't bias it by looking at times when stocks have been doing well in general.
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
Thanks PC.

Man CKH has low volume and its dropping right off the bat today....hmm, get out now even with a small profit
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
CKH has low share volume, but almost $6.5million tarded. Maybe I'm just used to penny stocks, but that's a good amount of money to me
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
Heh, well I trust your judgement, I guess I'm just a little too quick to sell right now when things trend downward only a couple days after a big increase
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
It's your call, of course. Luckily for me, a couple fo my friends got in at 82.45 and so they got out at he open yesterday. Sadly it's more important to me that people I'm trying to help do better than I do. I'm such a sucker...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Oh and by the way, you're totally insane if you've been on this board for like 24 hours and trust me, or anyone else.
 

---

Posted by Chris4205 on :
 
This is great information. Thank you. What is the next pick?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
The next pick will be tomorrow AM at the earliest. I run the program each morning when I get in to work. If there's none for that day, then I'll check again the next day
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Did you get out? Back over $85 again.

quote:

---

Originally posted by NemesisNY:
Thanks PC.

Man CKH has low volume and its dropping right off the bat today....hmm, get out now even with a small profit

---

 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
haha no, I stayed with it...decided to tough it out. Glad I did
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
MTG is a new one for today.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
"In" at 11.64
 

---

Posted by lostone on :
 
ok PC i got in DEEP 1.22 hopefully 1.20 was bottom
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Good luck man.
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
I got out of CKH today, made a small profit not 5%, but its something. I think the stock is going to keep going up, but its just going too slow for me and I wanted to free up some cash for other investment opportunities tomorrow.
 

---

Posted by lostone on :
 
PC are u still in DEEP
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Never got in that one.
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
PC, when do you think MTG will peak? within few days when all the director's buy kicks in?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I'm not sure what you mean by "when all the director's buy kicks in", but my method is basically to hold for a week, and if it doesn't move, sell to be ready for the next one.
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
well, someone traded 250k volumn of MTG at 4:02pm, price of 11.45. So tomorrow morning there should be a spike.

I am just wondering whats the best price to sell.
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
bailing on MTG, too many people selling their stock.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Sorry man.
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
heh, didnt lose too much, bought it at 11.50, sold it by 11.10. and I only lost the money I won from my last trade =)

I've been watching it closely, it just seems that there are so many more shares being sold than bought, and company's profile shows its losing money, on top of that mortgage industry isn't recovering for a while..

I just started trading, this is my second trade. I usually research on how industry is doing before I buy stock, but after reading your method I've learned that insider trading have a big impact too, so I guess I have to take consideration for that part as well in the future.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Good luck to you! I've gotten out of trying to guess if it will be good or not, so i just buy 'em all if I have free funds. Too often I bougth one that looked good then dropped, and missed one that looked to be heading to the gutter that exploded.
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
68.3% 3 F---ING MONTHS, I WANT THAT A DAY!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yeah Imake, but I'm guessing you're not willing to throw 50-100K in the plays you do. I'm trying to come up with good longterm strategies that I'm comfortable putting a lot in and not being scared to death

Then again, you seem just insane enough to throw 100K in one of your pinky runners...
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
MAYBE P I PLAY IT ALL, AND IM UP OVER 1500%
 

---

Posted by lostone on :
 
i need Imake's AIM or something, so i can join him.. man i could sure use some big % gains..cuz i hate my job!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
This year, or overall?

quote:

---

Originally posted by IMAKEMONEY:
MAYBE P I PLAY IT ALL, AND IM UP OVER 1500%

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
This year, or overall?

quote:

---

Originally posted by IMAKEMONEY:
MAYBE P I PLAY IT ALL, AND IM UP OVER 1500%

---

---

The silence is deafening. LOL. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Nah, I think he doesn't frequent the "Hot stocks" board much. My guess is he means overall, but with him, a couple good ones in a row and maybe it is just this year. But also, a couple bad ones in a row and it could be right back down quickly
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
I see mtg is bouncing back. I almost put a sell order in at 11.01 but didnt due to a meeting. It might have some life yet. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Sometimes, you have to be patient with these. MTG is still within my 5 day window. I bought some at $11.40 on 4/4 and am back green today. (at least for now)

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Jo, I didn't know you knew what green was! Congrats (for now...)
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
LOL.

Actually, after my panic "position closing" from two weeks or so ago, my money has settled and I'm ready to dip my toes back in.

Figured one of your form 4's was a good place to start, but I was getting pretty nervous there on Friday! Breathing a sigh of relieve on MTG today, though I'm back in the red with it. I'm gonna wait out the 5 full days and see what happens.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Hope it works out for you!
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
P77 I MENT IN THE MONTH OF MARCH 08,
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
If you're serious, I'm guessing you're using some funny math. Making 1500% means you have 16x as much money in your account now as you had at the beginning of March. I doubt that is true.

quote:

---

Originally posted by IMAKEMONEY:
P77 I MENT IN THE MONTH OF MARCH 08,

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
SCS is a new one for today. CKH got 5% for some people, but since it never made it high enough for my sell, I sold it at the close on Friday to make about 2.8%. That puts the total tally to:

Buy Signals: 30
5% Gainers: 19
G/L of other 10: -23.9%
Total G/L: 71.1%
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In at 11.35
 

---

Posted by Chris4205 on :
 
I got in at 11.31
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I have an order to double up at 11 if it gets there, but hopefully it won't.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I got partial filled at 11.19, so I do hope it comes down just for a minute to get my other shares.

jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
How much of your order got filled? Half? Less?

yesterday I got filled for 200 shares of JRC at .16. I was trying to double up from a .20 purchase. Sold today at .25, which would have been much better with 2X the shares at a 10% lower buy-in...
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
PC, are there any insiders buying SCS?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Uh yeah, that's the whole point of the thread
 

---

Posted by NemesisNY on :
 
haha at ^
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 

 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Only 1/3 filled. I tried for 300 shares, got 100.

I hate when that happens since you pay the commission on the lower amount of shares which makes it harder to make a good profit quickly. I shoulda used all or none on that one.

Jo

Oh, and btw and I am sitting on a partial fill for a sell on JRC as well. Bought at .18 yesterday, so far just over 1/3 sold at .25. I'm really going to have to start using the all or none on these.

>>How much of your order got filled? Half? Less?<<
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I gather you just got filled the rest of the way?
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
On SCS, yep. Okay fellas, we can go up now.

Jo
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
So if I get in on this SCS, should I not post about it ? I don't want to bring my bad luck onto you guys.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Correct
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
LOL, my bad luck is apparently already working.

But this should be a temporary. The one director bought his 50,000 shares at $11.23.
http://www.form4oracle.com/company;jsessionid=4AA7D75A1D604B1C10BCF5CA5D88FC88?c ik=0001050825&ticker=scs

Plus, we get a .15 dividend if we hold on til next week

quote:

---

Press Release Source: Steelcase Inc.

Steelcase Declares Quarterly Dividend
Wednesday April 2, 10:13 am ET

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich., April 2, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Board of Directors of Steelcase Inc. (NYSE: SCS - News) today declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share to be paid on or before April 28, 2008, to shareholders of record as of April 14, 2008.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by nycpma:
well, in afterhour, someone sold a huge amount of shares for 11.00

---

Well,crap. Shoulda put my ordr in for the extended session too...
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Uh-Oh on MTG....

--------------------

S&P cuts US mortgage insurers, housing outlook dims
7:26 p.m. 04/08/2008 Provided by


NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Tuesday downgraded four U.S. mortgage insurers, including MGIC Investment Corp's (MTG) arm, citing a worse-than-expected housing slump.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Nice PR on the 50,000 share buy of SCS.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/04/08/ap4867634.html
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Thanks Jo for the info on mtg. I will be watching that one very closely in the pre market. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
yeah, thanks jo.

Found this from this morning, so it'll be intereesting to watch today, I think.:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080409/mortgage_insurers_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' decision to slash credit ratings on four mortgage insurers is not surprising and will not likely affect their ability to write additional business, a Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst said Wednesday.

.
.
.


We expect the stocks may be weak on the headline," Stelmach said. "However, the longer-term impact on fundamentals is not likely to be material, as long as the mortgage industry needs the mortgage insurance capacity."
 

---

Posted by Chris4205 on :
 
Looking good!
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
So far it looks like the market had already taken that downgrade into affect and it is bouncing nicely. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
haha. I suck so bad at figuring out what the market will do with news. That's why I love my program, i just follow it blindly and never try to figure anythign like taht out!
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
TRUTH HURTS HEY P, LOL
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
That bounce in the morning on MTG was just the "jo effect" taking place, because I got stopped out at $11.45 right at the open. So even though I didn't get the extra spike, I still broke even and at least I'm not holding it now that it is down in the low 11's. Today was the "5 days" for me anyhow.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No, I just know that there's a 0% chance that you have 15X the money in your account than you had at the beginning of March.

quote:

---

Originally posted by IMAKEMONEY:
TRUTH HURTS HEY P, LOL

---

 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
LOL, GOOD FOR YOU, HMM HOW MUCH WAS CIRT UP TODAY, LMAO,
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I'm very happy for you, and I'm sure you put 100% of your account into this stock and haven' taken any profit yet...
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
the total dollar amount in the beginning of the day is only $48,168. what kind of company can run for only $48,168? there isn't even any market cap -_-
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
You talking about CIRT, or something else?
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
CIRT

PC, question, SCS opened at 11.11 but the indicator says its up 10 cents, why is that? doesn't really make sense...
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
I'm very happy for you, and I'm sure you put 100% of your account into this stock and haven' taken any profit yet...

---

NEVER SAID I DID, THEY NEVER COULD HAVE FILLED THAT ORDER,LOL
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks for proving my point IMAKE, I knew you'd come through for me!
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
YOUR VERY WECOME!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
It's "you're"
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
THATS JUST HOW YOU SPELL IT,LOL
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LMAO!
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
why feed the troll in the first place? -_-
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Troll's need to eat too!
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
YA YOU LITTLE NEWBIE, P NEED YOU TO GO BASH ON THE SLSY THREAD FOR ME YOUR GOOD LUCK, LOL, THANKS MAN, BET WERE NOT AT 72% TODAY
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
More pr on Steelcase buys:

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=25324


This is the weekly highlight of top insider buys: Steelcase Inc., Morgan Stanley, Apollo Group Inc., PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC, H.B. Fuller Company

Steelcase Inc. (SCS): Director P. Craig Welch Jr. Bought 50,000 Shares
Office furniture manufacturer Steelcase, Inc. (SCS) set their quarterly cash dividend at $0.15 per share. The company plans to cut 200 to 250 high-paying jobs. Steelcase’s fourth quarter earnings totaled $30.6 million or $0.22 compared to $29.3 million or $0.20 in 2006. For 2007, revenue increased to $3.42 billion from $3.1 billion on strong international demand. The company earned a total of $133.2 million or $0.93 per share compared with $106.9 million or $0.71 per share for 2006.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Out of SCS at 10.65 for just over a 6% loss. Although there was a .15 dividend, so really it's just under a 5% loss.

Last couple have not gone as well, but I'm comfortable that it will turn around soon.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
PCola77-
I was in at $11.15 and out at $10.80. Thought I would share the information now that you are out of it. Sorry if my buying brought bad luck upon you for this one.
 

---

Posted by Ace of Spades on :
 
http://thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=wall_street_pit&msg=1305307&cmd=read
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Sorry Ace, don't see anything related to this thread in your post.
 

---

Posted by joeyisthebest on :
 
Pcola I was in MMGP today .0013 out at .002 then it spikes to .0045 I think but I did lock in my profits closed at .0028
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Joey, try not to look at stocks after you sell them. Opens up too much regret, and often times you'll decide "It's still going up, I'm going to et back in." And you get smoked.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
PCola77 has been watching me trade. LOL

Anyway, lookee at SCS. My five days was up yesterday, so it's time for me to say goodbye, I guess. A few more pennies and I can break even.

Jo
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Thought this article had a place in this thread:


Profit by Tracking Insider Buying

http://www.smartmoney.com/sturmscreen/index.cfm?story=february2007
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Jo, Joey, must be somethign in the name

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
PCola77 has been watching me trade. LOL

Anyway, lookee at SCS. My five days was up yesterday, so it's time for me to say goodbye, I guess. A few more pennies and I can break even.

Jo

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jo4321:
Thought this article had a place in this thread:


Profit by Tracking Insider Buying

http://www.smartmoney.com/sturmscreen/index.cfm?story=february2007

---

 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Got any new ones Pcola? TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No, haven't been any in approaching two weeks. The norm was about 1 a week for a while, there was just a pretty heavy run for about 2 months. My guess is because so many companies had their stock price fall during that time, there was more incentive for insider buying. This is probably more of a normal pace.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Guess we shoulda got back into MTG!

Up 18% today.
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
the report beats forecast, so they are on right track.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I had two friends call me today saying "Hey, I just got out of MTG for my 5%, thanks!"

i was like "What the f*** were you still holding it for?!?!?!"

"I dunno."

Lucky bast*rds
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
lol, i am still holding SCS, after a little research the company seems a lot more stable, so I dont mind holding it until something else pops out =P
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
I had two friends call me today saying "Hey, I just got out of MTG for my 5%, thanks!"

i was like "What the f*** were you still holding it for?!?!?!"

"I dunno."

Lucky bast*rds

---

I am shorting MTG to get my 5% back =P
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
I thought of that strategy earlier, but Fidelity tells me none available to short.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Said Goodbye to my shares of SCS today at $11.65. I went with 4% rather than 5%, but considering I was seriously in the red on it last week, I'm not complaining.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
damn it. Everyone's making money on my picks but me!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Well, you coulda visited my thread and made some money on my "picks" (actually my sells)

Have a nice weekend!

Jo
 

---

Posted by deconstruct2000 on :
 
Where do you find the form 4 filings?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I use SecForm4.com, but you can get them prety much anywhere. yahoo finance, google finance, sec website, etc. They are all public info.
 

---

Posted by Free Muney on :
 
scs is looking great with a super solid support at 10.70. just needs some momentum.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
But don't you also think there is lots of resistance around $11.60 or so? (SCS)

Shoulda rebought it in the $10's.

Jo
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/814055.htm
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by T e x:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/814055.htm

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by T e x:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/814055.htm

---

code:

---

Period	 Moving Average 	 Price Change 	 Percent Change 	 Average Volume
5-Days 	0.77 	+0.16 	+22.86% 	        180034
20-Days 	0.73 	+0.16 	+22.86%  	203973
50-Days 	0.79 	-0.06 	-6.52%          122311
100-Days 	0.94 	-0.15 	-14.85% 	126529
200-Days 	1.23 	-1.32 	-60.55% 	205790
Year to Date 	0.89 	-0.26 	-23.21% 	118351

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by SoAngel:
WCBO is down to ~12.75 - I am debating getting into this now or staying away.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Free Muney:
check out ubet today. turns out this one should have been on the insider buying radar. although even today volume is not that great.

---

posted in this very thread, 04-27...and several times since.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Yeah Free Money, open your eyes

quote:

---

Originally posted by T e x:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Free Muney:
check out ubet today. turns out this one should have been on the insider buying radar. although even today volume is not that great.

---

posted in this very thread, 04-27...and several times since.

---

 

---

Posted by Free Muney on :
 
jeez. sorry. what i meant was that it appeared from previous posts that no one actually jumped into ubet before earnings although it was posted on here.... not just radar-ed.... sorry for wasting your time with a wasted post..... and of cours this was of a post as well.......
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL. And now I have to waste your time by wasting my time by responding to your time-wasting post!

My head hurts...
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
And now, I have to waste time, telling you two guys to stop wasting time by posting your time-wasting posts in this thread.

Jo
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 
Hi.
 

---

Posted by a surfer on :
 
Whats next??
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Nuttin' since WCBO. But since you reminded me, and I'm not that busy, I'll run my program now and let you know in about 40 minutes if anythign new pops up.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
uhhhh. My ADD just kicked in, and I just realized I downloaded the data a while ago but in the 90 seconds that it takes to download, I forgot all about it... Just kicked it off, so should have results in a 1/2 hour or so...
 

---

Posted by a surfer on :
 
lol what a stoner move
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Nothing new for today.

I get easily distracted, what can I say
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by a surfer:
lol what a stoner move

---

hahahaha!! Gosh, I love this thread.
 

---

Posted by BooDog on :
 
Watching RCH, that puppy ran out of the gate. Eyes are on RGR also.
 

---

Posted by $tock Weazel on :
 
What happened pcola? Did you shut down?

Hope everythings well..


 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Nope, just haven't been any new ones in a few weeks, so I gave Bob the go-ahead to unpin 'er for now. It will get bumped up appropriately as signals start happening again.
 

---

Posted by jgrecoconstr on :
 
I was wondering where you went to. I read this whenever there is a new post. I haven't played any of them but I have been following your progress.
 

---

Posted by nycpma on :
 
I bought some WM at 10.50... and now it dropped 1.50 lol
 

---

Posted by Stockstar69 on :
 
Watch SGP and TRN.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Why?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockstar69:
Watch SGP and TRN.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Why?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockstar69:
Watch SGP and TRN.

---

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by greg755:
F. Traded Ford three times (this month) on the way down and did ok. There is a lot of "emotional" trading going on which suites me just fine. Bought in the other day * 5.98. I see this stock going back up to $7.75-$8.00 in the next couple of months, should be able to trade it two or three more times on the way there.
What do you guys think?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Another new one for today. FSNM

Insiders keep buying SBGI, and they pay a .20 dividend next week, so I will hold for a bit, but I am also going to buy FSNM at the open.

---

Hope you got in!
 

---

Posted by plcp on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Another new one for today. FSNM

Insiders keep buying SBGI, and they pay a .20 dividend next week, so I will hold for a bit, but I am also going to buy FSNM at the open.

---

Nice work, PCola! I got in at 6.10 yesterday. Up big today.

I owe you beer face to fact!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Damn, I had to reboot my computer yesterday and hadn't saved my etrade watch list, so I wasn't even paying attention today. Just see it hit $7.15!?!? My sell order executed long ago at 6.41 for my 5%...
 

---

Posted by RandallW on :
 
Hi Everyone,
I just joined the site.I have been watching it for a while.I have always been interested in stock trading,but never "jumped off the pier".
i'm 47 years old live in the Atlanta georgia area,and have worked in bowling most of my life.
I just came into a little money and I am wanting to start trading penny stocks.I have set up an Etrade account.I was wondering if you guys have any advice on trading companies? Etrade seems like a good deal.I used to be with snob but after they started the monthly fee crap i left.

I would wanna ask you if any of you have looked at these stocks,I believe these may do something.

AMF Bowling worldwide AMBW
Star energy group SERG
Medical company FONR
Delta airlines DAL

To Pcola77, Curious, I was born and raised in Pensacola, Florida only us natives refer to it as "Pcola" That you?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No Randall, although I get that question a lot. Just a bast*rdization of my first initial and last name.

Sorry I can't help on the stock question, but I would recommend startnig a new trhead asking for opinions, since I think only a few people check this thread regularly.

Good luck to you.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
LOL, I thought it was because you liked Pepsi Cola!

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL Jo!

by the way, two new ones for today INT & CVH. I won't be buying either as I am still in SBGI, but both seem to have pros and cons so I'm not comfortable recommending one over the other.
 

---

Posted by stocktrader22 on :
 
Does OPK meet your requirements?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
22, it doesn't meet a few of my criteria, one of which is that the average volume is pretty low in terms of total dollars. I like a couple mil+ in average $ volume.

Looking at the chart and the number of buys, you're probably in for a nice bounce when it finds its bottom, but I wouldn't be confident enough to pull the trigger yet, since there could be more downside, and I like to limit downside and scalp for 5% gain or so.

Good luck if you grab it though, and let us know!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Just noticed you posted this morning. Not sure why I never noticed, but sorry for not responding earlier.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
CVH up 8% today, so it easily passed my 5% gain target. INT is basically flat as of now.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
INT down 5% right now. I bought in at 21.00 a bit ago trying to catch a bounce.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
INT - out at 19.92
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Geez taht sucks. Sorry man.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
No problem man, I only had 170 shares. I will wait and find something else
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
BEAV is a new one for today. 3 different insiders each bought 5000 shares (over $100,000 worth each). I will most likely buy unless it opens over $22 or so.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Opened at 21.41, closed yesterday at 21.51, and the high of 22.59 just hit, which means it already hit 5% if you got in under 21.52.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
Damn, I have no idea how I missed your post this morning. I never checked my e-mail either. lol
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Doesn't it seem like you play the losers and miss the winners? I feel like that ALWAYS happens to me...
 

---

Posted by plcp on :
 
Nice jbo on the BEAV, PCola. I didn't have enough $ available to get a significant position at open, so I missed out on this one. But I'm having a fire sale today, so I'll have enough to play next time.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
Absolutely. But I have faith.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Why anyone wouldn't be willing to pay for some BEAV is totally beyond me

quote:

---

Originally posted by plcp:
Nice jbo on the BEAV, PCola. I didn't have enough $ available to get a significant position at open, so I missed out on this one. But I'm having a fire sale today, so I'll have enough to play next time.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Doesn't it seem like you play the losers and miss the winners? I feel like that ALWAYS happens to me...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
I was going for subtle, like my post above

"Why anyone wouldn't be willing to pay for some BEAV is totally beyond me"

---

It was so subtle that it took 2 cups of coffee for me to process it...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
haha!

Oh and I have thought about options, but have promised myself not to get into that until I am more comfortable with them in general, and honestly I have too much on my plate as it is to even start trying to understand them. Definitely somethign I want to do in the future.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
VCLK is a new one for today. Based on pre-market it looks to be opening higher, but I'll probably get in at the open if it doesn't open too much above yesterday's close, probably anything around 10.90 and I'll try to get in.

Good luck if you get in.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In VCLK at 10.83
 

---

Posted by stocktrader22 on :
 
nice so far
 

---

Posted by Free Muney on :
 
pcola are you gonna hold thru earnings for vclk or dump before.

Just curious your sentiment, since overall this stock is in a downward trend. but could easily be filling the gap in the next few days....

tough to tell with the big market swings the past couple of days.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I was at the beach since Saturday, just got home tonight. I tried to reply from my Blackberry, but wasn't logged in, so my whole message got lost. I ended up selling today at 11.84. Looks like tha was the right call because I didn't get home until after 4:00 today, and i see it down pretty big after hours.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
There are 4 new ones for today, and honestly I don't know which, if any, I will buy. I wanted to put them out there though, in case any of them interest any of you.

BPFH, DOW, ININ, and MSA

Good luck if you get in any of them.
 

---

Posted by Free Muney on :
 
vclk looks to be heading to fill the gapdown. imo.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Bad news folks (for me anyway).

Last week my company decided that my department is no longer exempt from compliance requirements, effective at the end of this week. What this means is that I am now required to clear all trades through our compliance department before making any trades. While that rule by itself would severely hamper my trading, there is also a rule that you can not sell a stock within 60 days of purchase. Obviously that rule eliminates my program as a viable trading strategy.

Chances are, this is the end of my trading, so I don't know how often I'll be posting or reading here after this week. I think it would just make me mad to read about trades that others are making that I can't, so I'll probably just try to stay away.

Good luck to you all.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
Best of luck to you as well. I would type more, but this is depressing.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL, how do you think I feel
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
I hate to here that Pcola. Hopefully things will change and you can get back into the swing of things. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by jgrecoconstr on :
 
There must be some way around that. Doesn't seem right that if you were using trades as a retirement account that they could hinder you like that.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks for the well wishes. jg, they can limit it. the rule is still apparently more flexible than at most investment companies, but they have to protect themself and their clients. I understand the logic, just sucks that I made the decision to come here just 7 months ago partly because I would be able to continue trading.
 

---

Posted by jgrecoconstr on :
 
Sorry dude. You need a relative or someone else you trust to keep going. That's one way out.
 

---

Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
 
THAT SUCKS P! WHO WILL I BUG? LOL, G/K
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
LOL, maybe I'll still pop on over to this board once in a while just to yell to newbies to stay away from your picks.

quote:

---

Originally posted by IMAKEMONEY:
THAT SUCKS P! WHO WILL I BUG? LOL, G/K

---

 

---

Posted by syynik on :
 
But, PCola, are you aware I hired you as my advisor a few months back?

Just my luck...
Syynik
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Sorry man. Hope you at least were able to make a few bucks before I met my trading demise. Who knows though, I may be back someday if I can work something out, but I doubt it would be soon.
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Can you teach one of us how to do what you do?

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
For a price

No, I worked on it for like a year, so I'm not just gonna give it away. Hope to be able to make use of it again some day...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
By the way, ZOLT is one for today. Still not sure yet if I'll keep it going much longer. We'll see.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
So far this one hasn't treated me very well...

Hope it turns around soon, but not looking good.
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
Damn, down 5% for me right now, what to do...what to do...
 

---

Posted by SoAngel on :
 
Out 15.56
 

---

Posted by fourseven on :
 
Hey all.. I've been off the drugs for a while.. now coming back for a curious second look..

Are some of you still keeping track of trades? Where do the results stand as compared to the original predictions? Notable improvements to the method?
 

---

Posted by fourseven on :
 
OOohh WTF, PCola is out!? Sheeeeeet...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I still check in, but can't trade anything. Working on a solution, so hopefully I'll be back sooner than later. Not sure how it'll turn out though.
 

---

Posted by fourseven on :
 
Well, you can still paper trade, right? Just not real-shares-trade..
I guess it's not the same, but could still be used to test your method, and help "stay in shape" for trading
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well, I'm back! Left my job last week and am going to try my hand at trading full time. I've got a bit of a safety net in that I will be working 1 day a week at my old job as a consultant to help the transition for a few months, as needed.

Wish me luck.

As far as this program, I ran it over the weekend, and just looked at the last two weeks. There would have been 3 signals, and all 3 would have hit the 5% target. I will be running the program daily again.
 

---

Posted by Stock_Pupil on :
 
PC - If it's not too much trouble can you explain the 5% target?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Basically whenever I buy something, I immediately put in a sell order 5% higher. So if I buy somethign at $10, I will sell it if it gets to $10.50 within 5 days (one trading week).

Now that I will be trading full time, I may go back to my program and really dig into the data to see if there is a better sell method, but the 5% gain was my target since I started this program a year or so ago.
 

---

Posted by Gary59 on :
 
PC good luck on full time trading , I have watched a lot of your picks and have got good advise from you in the past , I know you will do well trading full time...
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Well, I'm back! Left my job last week and am going to try my hand at trading full time. I've got a bit of a safety net in that I will be working 1 day a week at my old job as a consultant to help the transition for a few months, as needed.

Wish me luck.

As far as this program, I ran it over the weekend, and just looked at the last two weeks. There would have been 3 signals, and all 3 would have hit the 5% target. I will be running the program daily again.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gary59:
PC good luck on full time trading , I have watched a lot of your picks and have got good advise from you in the past , I know you will do well trading full time...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by T e x:

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Well, I'm back! Left my job last week and am going to try my hand at trading full time. I've got a bit of a safety net in that I will be working 1 day a week at my old job as a consultant to help the transition for a few months, as needed.

Wish me luck.

As far as this program, I ran it over the weekend, and just looked at the last two weeks. There would have been 3 signals, and all 3 would have hit the 5% target. I will be running the program daily again.

---

Congrats, and...

Best of Luck, amigo!

---

 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
I'm fine--except for the mortgage crooks I can't seem to get out of my life. Just found out some scammy lil bank has a lien on my place, even though I paid off the company who bought my note, paid in full btw.

Scammy lil bank was Lasalle, now owned by Bank of America...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
That sucks. Hope it all gets worked out.
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
Oh, it will get worked out, all right...I may have to tap dance on somebody's forehead, but it *will* get rectified. I found out this morning, and already have calls in to my attorney and BOA.

Anyway, thanks for the well wishes...

Now--back to trading.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Had a computer issue a few minutes ago that cost me a few hundred bucks. I had an order in to buy 1000 shares of BC at 4.10. Saw it dropping at 4.30 and tried to pull my buy order, but my computer froze completely. Watched it drop as low as 3.80 and would have loved to have doubled up under $4.00, but I didn't get my computer rebooted for like 15 minutes. Just sold at $4.30 for another $200 before commission.

Having a nice day so far. Slow and steady is what I'm trying to do, with an occassional huge up day, of course
 

---

Posted by T e x on :
 
Are you using only one computer?

nice trade, btw--good catch
 

---

Posted by Stock_Pupil on :
 
What is the criteria for the picks and do you ever raise the percentage of your target, for instance 10%?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
The program referenced in this thread is a hard and fast 5%. As I will have moer time now, I will run other scenarios to try to optimize my returns. Maybe 5% is the best, maybe a a trailng stop is the best, maybe some other sell rule is the best, but for now it's 5%.

The two trades that I made today are not in reference to my program, and perhaps I should start another thread for my non-program daytrades, to not cause confusion.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stock_Pupil:
What is the criteria for the picks and do you ever raise the percentage of your target, for instance 10%?

---

 

---

Posted by syynik on :
 
Awesome news, PCola!
 

---

Posted by Jo4321 on :
 
Good Luck, PCola! Exciting time for you, but I guess a bit scary too!

Glad to have you back around here.

Jo
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks guys, and jo, it's not scary. I'm very lucky in many ways, and I have the support of my family and my in-laws if we get into any financial trouble, so I have a safety net in that respect to get us through any rough times. Also, I've had two pretty good paying jobs in my 9 years in the work force, so I am confident that if I fail at his, I will still be okay.

But it's darn good to be back.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Welcome back PCola. Glad to see you are back around. I am so busy at work I hardly trade anymore, but will be checking this thread very regularly. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Well, there was one for today, but I totally forgot to post it here. It was SWK, and I didn't buy because I was nervous about the overall market, but of course it hit the 5% target already, so I should have bought.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
There are 2 new signals for today. KCI and CVH. Of the two, I'd probably go with CVH. Good luck if you decide to get in eaither.

Oh, and amusingly, TEX (the stock, not the person) is one that hit most of my criteria, but fell just short.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Got any new signals today Pcola? I made a few bucks on CVH. Thanks, TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Good timing TMAN

New one for today is RNOW.

In case you weren't watching, both CVH and KCI hit the 5% target.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
thanks for the tip. Got in at 6.25, out at 6.55 quick 5%. Thats two in a row. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by cottonjim on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by tmanfromtexas:
thanks for the tip. Got in at 6.25, out at 6.55 quick 5%. Thats two in a row. TMAN...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by tmanfromtexas:
thanks for the tip. Got in at 6.25, out at 6.55 quick 5%. Thats two in a row. TMAN...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PCola77:
Well, I'm back! Left my job last week and am going to try my hand at trading full time. I've got a bit of a safety net in that I will be working 1 day a week at my old job as a consultant to help the transition for a few months, as needed.

Wish me luck.

As far as this program, I ran it over the weekend, and just looked at the last two weeks. There would have been 3 signals, and all 3 would have hit the 5% target. I will be running the program daily again.

---

Hey and Ho and welcome back! It's good to hear you decided to pursue trading on your own. Seems like you have a solid approach, and may you be multiply successful


A word of warning, though.. I've tried this myself, and failed. Enough time passed so I can see more clearly why it didn't work. In my case, I had unrealistic expectations: I was hoping to live off of my savings, and learn trading so that I could make a living doing that. I put a lot of pressure on myself, and made all the mistakes until I ran out of money. The lesson learned was to have a steady footing, and approach trading lightly and with discipline. Not having to depend on trading for the day-to-day would allow all the time and flexibility to learn how to do it properly.

But it sounds like you've thought about all that and then some.. so, good to have you back!
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
Thanks. I am confident that I can do it, but am also realistic. I have a good support system in place, and I don't thikn I will be setting myself and my family back too much if I am not successful.

We'll see what happens though!

quote:

---

Originally posted by fourseven:
Hey and Ho and welcome back! It's good to hear you decided to pursue trading on your own. Seems like you have a solid approach, and may you be multiply successful


A word of warning, though.. I've tried this myself, and failed. Enough time passed so I can see more clearly why it didn't work. In my case, I had unrealistic expectations: I was hoping to live off of my savings, and learn trading so that I could make a living doing that. I put a lot of pressure on myself, and made all the mistakes until I ran out of money. The lesson learned was to have a steady footing, and approach trading lightly and with discipline. Not having to depend on trading for the day-to-day would allow all the time and flexibility to learn how to do it properly.

But it sounds like you've thought about all that and then some.. so, good to have you back!

---

 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New one for today is EXEL.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
New one for today is ULTI.

EXEL hit the 5% yesterday.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
In ULTI at 14.25
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Sold exel today. I am 3 for 3. I am liking it. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
I got in ulti at 14.68. Little high but still think it has room. TMAN...
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
No new ones for today. ULTI hit 5% yesterday and I thought I sold at around $15, but it's still in my account, so I'm not sure if I never hit the final submit button or something. Oh well, guess I am still holding...
 

---

Posted by fourseven on :
 
Hey, here's an idea:

When you hit your 5%, you close the position, right?

What about only closing the profit part of the position? IE, the 5% -- leaving the rest in the market.

I suppose then you'd need a rule to decide when to bail (eg -3% or something) when the position starts showing a loss.
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
I've tried a bunch of different ways, but the 5% rule was nice and simple, and it seemed to work well. In fact, I screwed up my sell order the other day on ULTI, and so even though it hit my 5%, I never sold and now am holding at a loss... So I have like a $3,000 gain and now I'm down like $2,000.

See what happens when I deviate from my 5% rule?
 

---

Posted by PCola77 on :
 
HLF is a new one for today. Good luck if you decide to get in.
 

---

Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
 
Winning streak ended with ulti. didnt get out at 5%, was in a meeting. My next stop was 10%. I am sure it will go to the moon now. LOL.

Got HLF at 20.33 hope it does better. TMAN...
 

---