posted
The Fall and Rise of Russia Winston Churchill called Russia "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma," and that's still true today. A rump state of a former superpower with an economy smaller than Texas, it is also one of the world's wealthiest countries in terms of natural resources, boasting one third of the world's gas supplies. The collapse of Russia's economy in 1998 is still seared in the minds of global investors, when they lost 95% of their investment in its nascent stock market. The crisis left Russia in utter chaos as investment banks shuttered offices and investors vowed never to return. Fast forward to 2006, and Russia is one of the world's fastest-growing economies, recording eight years of consecutive growth. China gets all the positive press but investors in Shanghai have been treading water for five straight years. Compare that to Russia where, since 1996, investors have made 23 times their money. Until early May, that is. The Russian market was up 190% over the last 12 months through May 10. Since then, the Russian market has come down with a thud, dropping 10% on two consecutive days just this week. Despite this wrenching correction, the Russian market has doubled over the past year. A Serious Image Problem Russia is a country badly in need of re-branding. Despite its status as a fast growth BRIC country, Russia still symbolizes something that is wrong with the world, rather than something it aspires to. Investment Guru Jim Rogers hates the place. When asked about Russia, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire, harrumphed: "We don't invest in kleptocracies." Ten years ago, when you heard "mafia" you thought of the Godfather. Today you think of a Russian "bisnisman." If India is embodied by a highly educated, hardworking high-tech worker, Russia is the thug you cross the street to avoid. India is Bill Gates; Russia is Scarface. Russia is taking steps to remedy this image problem. The government recently hired a PR agency to improve its coverage in the Western media during the upcoming G-8 summit. If they're smart, they'll try to send this message: Today Russia is the most politically stable and the most industrialized of the BRIC countries. With an average growth rate of 7% per year over the past five years, Russian economic growth is nipping at the heels of China and India. Russian natural gas giant Gazprom just broke into the FT Global's Top Ten just as U.S. icon General Motors has fallen out of the Top 500. Chinese and Indian companies aren't even close. Google's billionaire co-founder and Stanford wunderkind Sergei Brin is Russian. And the first place winner in a recent international computer programming contest? Saratov State. The Chinese placed as high as eighth. India? Nowhere to be found. Lord knows, Russia needs the good PR. Its actions on the world stage are often brazen and oafish. Even China's shenanigans -- such as screening Google's searches -- fail to raise the hackles on the global business community's neck as much as Russia does. Gazprom makes thinly veiled threats to cut off the EU's gas supplies, simultaneously hiring former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder as a Vice-Chairman. The Russian government has systematically dismantled Russia's largest company Yukos, and the world's front pages are emblazoned with images of its former CEO and Russia's wealthiest man Mikhail Khordokovsky sitting caged in a Moscow courtroom. Then it repackages the assets from Yukos and sells them back to Western investors as part of Rosneft in one of the biggest ($20 billion) IPOs in a decade. Russia's latest PR gaffe? It banned the re-entry of Russia's biggest investor Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital Management into the country. And Browder -- a former presenter at the London Junto -- is even a vocal supporter of the Putin government. Making Money in Russia As Browder put it recently. "Russia sucks. But if over time, it sucks a little less, I make money." Indeed, Browder himself pocketed over $130 million in 2005. But Bill's statement contains a profound insight. It's easy to invest in a sexy China growth story. It's hard to invest in countries and companies everyone hates. Early on Browder realized that if Russian natural resource stocks were trading on 1-2% valuations of their Western counterparts, over the long term, there was only one direction they could go, even if the companies were in the hands of kleptocrats. Equally importantly, he's had the psychological stamina to tough it during periods of gut wrenching volatility like this past month. That's also why the Russian market sells off the most during any market wobble. It's a lot easier to dump something you hate than your favorite stock. That makes the Russian market a contrarian heaven. I once bought Global Bull Market Alert recommendation Tatneft (TNT) at $1.50 -- and sold it after tripling my money at around $5.00. It reached a peak of $120 earlier this year, and is currently trading at $77. Stomach that kind of volatility and you deserve to get rich. Here's why the Russian market will boom: First, Russia has gotten its macroeconomic act together, and it has been squirreling away a portion of its oil profits into a national rainy day fund. With $60 billion in its coffers, the fund gives Russia a cushion for riding out economic storms. Second, Russia is ultimately a commodities play. And with the commodities boom in only the fourth inning of a nine-inning game, we still have a ways to go. Third, while China and India still lack a basic economic infrastructure, Russia already has a basic -- if aging -- infrastructure in place, which makes its economic growth more sustainable. So if you can handle the volatility, Russia could be the arena for some of your biggest investment successes in the coming years. Sincerely, Nicholas A. Vardy, Editor, The Global Guru
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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posted
lol... nice call dig.. in the meantime herez guiness for green day for ndol on a lousy friday..where nothing happened!!!!
-------------------- All my posts are based on my own opinions and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations. Posts: 961 | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by DIGDOUGH: The Fall and Rise of Russia Winston Churchill called Russia "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma," and that's still true today. A rump state of a former superpower with an economy smaller than Texas, it is also one of the world's wealthiest countries in terms of natural resources, boasting one third of the world's gas supplies. The collapse of Russia's economy in 1998 is still seared in the minds of global investors, when they lost 95% of their investment in its nascent stock market. The crisis left Russia in utter chaos as investment banks shuttered offices and investors vowed never to return. Fast forward to 2006, and Russia is one of the world's fastest-growing economies, recording eight years of consecutive growth. China gets all the positive press but investors in Shanghai have been treading water for five straight years. Compare that to Russia where, since 1996, investors have made 23 times their money. Until early May, that is. The Russian market was up 190% over the last 12 months through May 10. Since then, the Russian market has come down with a thud, dropping 10% on two consecutive days just this week. Despite this wrenching correction, the Russian market has doubled over the past year. A Serious Image Problem Russia is a country badly in need of re-branding. Despite its status as a fast growth BRIC country, Russia still symbolizes something that is wrong with the world, rather than something it aspires to. Investment Guru Jim Rogers hates the place. When asked about Russia, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire, harrumphed: "We don't invest in kleptocracies." Ten years ago, when you heard "mafia" you thought of the Godfather. Today you think of a Russian "bisnisman." If India is embodied by a highly educated, hardworking high-tech worker, Russia is the thug you cross the street to avoid. India is Bill Gates; Russia is Scarface. Russia is taking steps to remedy this image problem. The government recently hired a PR agency to improve its coverage in the Western media during the upcoming G-8 summit. If they're smart, they'll try to send this message: Today Russia is the most politically stable and the most industrialized of the BRIC countries. With an average growth rate of 7% per year over the past five years, Russian economic growth is nipping at the heels of China and India. Russian natural gas giant Gazprom just broke into the FT Global's Top Ten just as U.S. icon General Motors has fallen out of the Top 500. Chinese and Indian companies aren't even close. Google's billionaire co-founder and Stanford wunderkind Sergei Brin is Russian. And the first place winner in a recent international computer programming contest? Saratov State. The Chinese placed as high as eighth. India? Nowhere to be found. Lord knows, Russia needs the good PR. Its actions on the world stage are often brazen and oafish. Even China's shenanigans -- such as screening Google's searches -- fail to raise the hackles on the global business community's neck as much as Russia does. Gazprom makes thinly veiled threats to cut off the EU's gas supplies, simultaneously hiring former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder as a Vice-Chairman. The Russian government has systematically dismantled Russia's largest company Yukos, and the world's front pages are emblazoned with images of its former CEO and Russia's wealthiest man Mikhail Khordokovsky sitting caged in a Moscow courtroom. Then it repackages the assets from Yukos and sells them back to Western investors as part of Rosneft in one of the biggest ($20 billion) IPOs in a decade. Russia's latest PR gaffe? It banned the re-entry of Russia's biggest investor Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital Management into the country. And Browder -- a former presenter at the London Junto -- is even a vocal supporter of the Putin government. Making Money in Russia As Browder put it recently. "Russia sucks. But if over time, it sucks a little less, I make money." Indeed, Browder himself pocketed over $130 million in 2005. But Bill's statement contains a profound insight. It's easy to invest in a sexy China growth story. It's hard to invest in countries and companies everyone hates. Early on Browder realized that if Russian natural resource stocks were trading on 1-2% valuations of their Western counterparts, over the long term, there was only one direction they could go, even if the companies were in the hands of kleptocrats. Equally importantly, he's had the psychological stamina to tough it during periods of gut wrenching volatility like this past month. That's also why the Russian market sells off the most during any market wobble. It's a lot easier to dump something you hate than your favorite stock. That makes the Russian market a contrarian heaven. I once bought Global Bull Market Alert recommendation Tatneft (TNT) at $1.50 -- and sold it after tripling my money at around $5.00. It reached a peak of $120 earlier this year, and is currently trading at $77. Stomach that kind of volatility and you deserve to get rich. Here's why the Russian market will boom: First, Russia has gotten its macroeconomic act together, and it has been squirreling away a portion of its oil profits into a national rainy day fund. With $60 billion in its coffers, the fund gives Russia a cushion for riding out economic storms. Second, Russia is ultimately a commodities play. And with the commodities boom in only the fourth inning of a nine-inning game, we still have a ways to go. Third, while China and India still lack a basic economic infrastructure, Russia already has a basic -- if aging -- infrastructure in place, which makes its economic growth more sustainable. So if you can handle the volatility, Russia could be the arena for some of your biggest investment successes in the coming years. Sincerely, Nicholas A. Vardy, Editor, The Global Guru
Remarks at the State Department Correspondents Association's Inaugural Newsmaker Breakfast Secretary Condoleezza Rice Fairmont Hotel Washington, DC January 5, 2006
QUESTION: If I can move to Russia. We saw a certain move by Russia the last few days, halting oil to Ukraine and Europe. The Russian support for Belarus continues. There are elections in Belarus in a couple months. Russia has just assumed the chairmanship of the G-8. Do you have any concerns about the responsibilities a major player in the world's (inaudible), as Russia would like to be, as it assumes the chairmanship of such an important organization?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, it was not a good week from the point of view of Russia's demonstrating that it is now prepared to act in a -- as an energy supplier in a responsible way in energy markets. And I think that point was made very, very clear to the Russians. Perhaps even they were a little surprised at how clearly the point was made by European states in particular, that would have suffered from what appeared to us to be politically motivated efforts to constrain energy supply to Ukraine. The game just can't be played that way.
I mean, when you say you want to be a part of the international economy and you want to be a responsible actor in the international economy, then you play by its rules. And nobody said that Ukraine should not eventually -- Ukraine and Russia shouldn't eventually get to some market-based price for gas. After all, everybody's trying to break down the old structures of the Soviet Union, which were inefficient and wasteful.
But when you do it in the way that this was done, with an obviously political motive, of course it causes problems. And yes, I think it was ironic and not good that they did it on the day practically that they became G-8 chairman. And I think that kind of behavior is going to continue to draw comment about the distance between Russian behavior in something like this and what would be expected of a responsible member of the G-8.
posted
moscowtimes is a pump &dump .. lol.. just kidding.. actually i heard moscowtimes is strictly regulated in russia, its too free for politicians out there. actually russia is very intimidating. the russian airport looks like a dungeon, with gaurds everywhere, stone faced and displaying their brawny kashalnikovs. and staff is as discurtoues as it can be. but outside airport, russians are fine people. actually in a way, more formal than in the US. and most of them are geeks.. or atleast the people i was with were ..
-------------------- All my posts are based on my own opinions and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations. Posts: 961 | Registered: May 2006
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posted
glass... actually, the supply to ukraine thing was overdone. till then, russia had discounted oil to ukraine, and actually, people in moscow were paying more price to gas than they were charging to ukrain (including transportation cosst etc.).. what we saw IMO was pure capitalism from russia for once.
capitalism definition from wikipedia: Capitalism has been defined in various related ways by different economic theorists[1], and is commonly understood to mean an economic or socioeconomic system in which the means of production are predominantly privately owned and operated for profit, mostly through the employment of labour. In such a system, money mediates the distribution and exchange of goods, services, and labour in largely free markets. Decisions regarding investment are made privately, and production and distribution is primarily controlled by companies or businesses each competing[2] and acting in its own interest.
till then, russian government had instructed companies in russia to heavily subsidise gas to ukraine. ukrainians had orange revolution, which was of discomfort to russia. so why should a government insist its countries companies to subsidise energy supply to another country which doesnt really reciprocate with positive tone to russia?
so the price increase and so followed supply disruption roumours and soared the pockets of shell/exxon. rest was all political maneuvering both by inept ukrainian government, and shrewd russian, europian and american goernments.v
-------------------- All my posts are based on my own opinions and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations. Posts: 961 | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Ragedbull777: Were those 100K and 200K share trades buys or sells? Anyone know? TIA
what time? nothing that size is showing at stockwatch for last ten trades...
I found out. The 200K trade was a sell, the 100K trade was a buy. At least we finished green FWIW. GLTU
Posts: 1289 | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
R_M it wasn't that simple... Ukraine supplied the pipelines.... and the USSR had built most of the pipelines thru Ukraine.... transparency in all of this has been nonexistant...
as a glass-blower? i try to keep up on natural gas stuff.... the politics of this thing is the point...
i don't have anything against Russian people...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by DIGDOUGH: You poor thing, you must have been terrified. I'm making statements of more logic than ever and you still aren't getting it. I don't know what else I can do for you.
POS!
-------------------- Buy Low. Sell High. Posts: 10754 | From: The Land Of The Giants | Registered: Feb 2005
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quote:Originally posted by DIGDOUGH: You guys don't let up on sh!t,no matter what as long as your giving out sh!t. There isn't much the average shareholder can talk about to some of you. My recommendation to some one who is chronically ill is just to quit while they are ahead. Rather than knocking the stick off the guys shoulder. or getting into heavy discussions that they know have a chance of busting their bubble.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: yep...
obviously he never stopped to think how many people that read here might actually be in wheelchairs...
Just go buy into Frank Olsens new company when he issues the shares and find a place to hide away from the rest of us. Here's your head start:
"PG's posting draws out the bad guys for all to see."
Skinny dipping, running around naked. Today our ambient air temperature is close to 108 degrees.
Drawing out the bad guys is critically important. Rather clear I am quite talented at this.
Readers do not need to worry about the good guys, but do need to pay attention to the good guys.
Bad guys are piss poor spin doctors. These are men, yes almost always men, who parrot techniques of fraud which have been around for decades. These are not intelligent men. These fraud methods have been fine tuned over many years and work very well with the innocent gullible. There are zillions of gullible people in the markets.
I have been playing the markets for longer than I will admit; gives away my age. These techniques, nothing new to me. The best of fraud took place long before the advent of online trading. Today's fraud scams are actually very stupid.
You gullible people out there fall for these scams far too easily. Sometimes I wonder if you even have a lick of sense. Your allowing yourself to be duped causes harm to all, literally all. Your suckering into scams draws capital out of the markets, leads to market instability and enables more fraud. You cause talented traders to become skeptical of anything and everything. You cause talented traders to keep their money off the table. This, in turn, further enables criminals and further destablizes our stock markets.
Sometimes these scam artists are easy to spot through their attacks, insults, vulgarity, racial slurs and such. Also easy to spot is a lack of factual presentations.
Picking on I-Hub, as usual, the board over there instantly deletes any articles which hint of questioning NDOL stock. All looks peachy keen over there; nothing but positive news. A schmuck walks in, reads all the rosey acclaim for this stock, reads all the flowery hype, becomes duped and tosses his money on the table, money which is lost, for good.
Try engaging in an intelligent discussion over there, bring up questionable points, your posts are deleted and you are attacked. That is a very good clue you are not in good company.
Drawing out the bad guys is critically important to a stock discussion board. I do not need to do this; I spot them before they even show up. Almost all of you are newbies and almost all of you are losing lots of money. Do not try to tell me otherwise, I know better.
This does not mean you will keep losing money. What this means is you need to smarten up.
Right off, when a person brings a stock pick to message board, you should be asking, "What is this person's intent?" A rhetorical question begging no answer. Obviously he wants you to buy his stock to drive prices up so he will profit from your money. Have your forgotten, "your money." What the heck is wrong with you with this quickly handing your money over to someone who is clearly out to profit off you?
Your money. Your money. Someone wants your money and you hand your money over without asking any questions, at all. That is dumb.
You have watched my techniques, you know how I draw out the bad guys. Involving my money, darn straight I will ask questions, will debate, will provide facts and opinion. My money, not your money. My money and I value my hard earned money.
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Good day, all you fine people. Here is a stock you should buy, right away. This stock will make you very rich. I am here out of the goodness of my heart. I want to help you to become rich because all of you are such nice wonderful people.
*
Oh look, George, a wonderful man (always a man) is here to help us become rich. Please, fetch your wallet and give this kind caring man our life savings. He will make us rich. Oh, kind man, you are so gracious. How can we thank you?
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Mule manure. Why is it you will play nice-nice with someone who is out to take your money?
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That Purl Gurl, she is such a b!tch, so rude, how dare her rough up some innocent man who is here to help all of us become rich. Get rid of her, she is no good, a trouble maker.
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Bullsh!t. You are gullible twits.
This is my money, my money. Some man comes in here acting all nice, wants to do all a favor, wants to make us rich. That is crap. My money, not his.
Darn straight I will rough him up. He is pushing a sales pitch, he is trying to convince me to give him MY MONEY. Insults me this man assumes me to be a gullible twit, like you.
You want my money, you darn well better be ready to answer some hard questions, you darn well best be ready to back up your words with facts and truth. You also better be ready to deal with my being bluntly honest. Start cry babying, I will only kick you even harder.
This is not tea and crumpets. This is a highly cut-throat financial business. I am not about to shake hands, comment on what a beautiful day then smile. I want to see your hands in plain view before you have a chance to stab me in my back, while pilfering my pocket book.
Darn straight I draw out the bad guys because we are completely surrounded by forty-thousand headmen looking to steal our money.
My money, not your money. You do not like my roughing up people to get at the truth, then trot over to Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood where everything is pretty, wonderful and pleasant.
You people are taking a ride on my back. I do all the dirty work, you learn the truth, then you turn right around and insult me for drawing out the bad guys.
Are not you glad I am not a pump and dump crook? With my language ability I would have all of you handing over your grandmother's gold teeth, with a smile. You are that gullible.
Smarten up and carry your own weight. My back is becoming tired from carrying you people around.
posted
I'm not sure if soliciting sex is permitted here! Maybe there are exceptions.
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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posted
Anything I do with me doesn't need her solicitation.
QUOTE]Originally posted by glassman: LOL i think she's soliciting you to have it with yourself [/QUOTE]
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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posted
Where is the ridicule. Don't ridicule a person with investment problems and you don't jeopardize having your own weaknesses revealed. See I have a handycap too. I lost money on a stock and the guy won't leave a dead dog lie.
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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posted
I'm challenging you guys to go find a stock and make some money on it. Rather than spend your time here on a stock that you don't own.
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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posted
played FDSM yesterday....didn't make fun of anybody's handicap, health problem, etc to do it, either. Actually, those guys gotta pretty nice thread. Your best bet is to stick excusivley to stock talk...
quote:Originally posted by DIGDOUGH: I'm challenging you guys to go find a stock and make some money on it. Rather than spend your time here on a stock that you don't own.
hmmmmmm...... what makes you think you are in a postion to challenge me?
why don't you give up on all the insults and let things settle down..... i am still on sabbatical as far as offering picks goes... and if the weather cools off here i'll be back in front of the furnaces because that's my preference...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
Got to go. Ponder what you just said above. I challenge everybody to read the title of this thread. I think we already memorized the opinion of the non content. And they're unmoveable opinion of this stock. Whats her face is making a great reputation for herself all across the internet.
Posts: 4245 | From: SMALLVILLE USA | Registered: May 2004
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quote:Originally posted by ruskin_muskin: Tex, dont mind if I say this, but i do feel this board is a little biased in terms of who can say what about others. on one side, you have purl et. al. (i am not including glass, you or dust).. who keep making cynical and insulting posts at "ignorant" people like me, and if I say something in retaliation, I am banned. lol..yes i was banned yesterday and had to send a letter to mods saying that i will not post another message addressed to any specific person in this thread..
A question which would never be allowed at your I-Hub board, yes?
I have noted many sincere participants have voiced concerns about the extreme censorship being practiced at I-Hub NDOL board.
Those participant's articles were deleted in a matter of minutes and the participants banished for good.
Off hand, I would guess you boys have banished more than half of the decent participants at your I-Hub board for daring to suggest there might be some problems with NDOL stock.
You boys have fun slinging racial slurs at me today? Something about "savage," "stay on the reservation" correct?
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