i wanna know who's in charge of publishing these "faulty" job numbers...
somethin' ain't right when they make mistakes this big..
i generally ignore politicians claims for "tweaking" the economy, positive or negative... i hate it when a prez gets blamed for a bad one and i hate it when one takes credit for a good one...
BUT?
i'm beginning to think this mess we are in right now really is politically manufactured.
after 9-11 they did what they had to... unfortunately the bill is still coming due..
in '02 thru '04 individual State budgets were in severe turmoil. they were running out of gasoline money for cop cars, and many states were not hiring or even cutting employees..
the "housing boom" changed this dramatically...
real estate generates a significant portion of most states revenues...
IMO, the housing boom was manufactured to relieve struggling State revenues...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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the US has always (since 1900 or so) had an attitude of: "deal with today, today. we'll take care of tomorrow when it gets here"
by flooding the country with easy (low interest, low paperwork, low qual, no qual loans) they kept US from falling into a depression after 9-11...
i just saw a report that 1/3 of all US foreclosures are on speculators, not homeowners..
that makes sense... most homeowners aren't gonna take a 3 year adjustable rate mortgage that they know they won't be able to pay after three years.. that's a speculator's "ploy"...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
IMO? the fed will give in to the street, cut rates and we'll get runaway inflation... the dollar is going to go weaker no matter what. our trade imbalances, and our debt to income ratio are just too big...
i'm still trying to figger out how China will play this..
i wish they'd go ahead and buy gold, like they should have done three years ago.. i believe that would settle everything down quickly...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by retiredat49: The street already controls the fed...IMO
i agree 99%...
here's the best short explanation i've been able to find: A Repo Example A brief description of Repo
The repo (sale and repurchase agreements) business is not well known to the public. Repo involve the sale of securities (as collateral) and the simultaneous undertaking to repurchase those securities at a later date. The maturity date is either fixed at the outset of the agreement, or extended on a day-to-day basis (open repo). Essentially, a repo simply represents a loan that is backed by investment securities.
Upon expiry of the repo contract, the seller is obliged to repurchase the collateral at the original selling price. In addition, he pays the buyer interest based on the duration of the loan and the principal amount involved.
If the seller were to default on his obligation to repay the money, the purchaser is entitled to sell the pledged securities. Conversely, the seller can use the loaned amount to replace his securities if the buyer fails to return the original collateral.
Both the risk and reward associated with the pledged securities accrue to the seller. He remains the beneficial owner, even though the buyer owns the collateral during the term of the agreement. Should the value of the securities fall during the contract period, the seller incurs the loss. He also bears the risk of default by the company which issued the securities. The buyer's risk is thus negligible, as the seller and the issuer are most unlikely to default simultaneously.
posted
this might be an(other) underlying reason why the markets have been so frothy lately, the big hedgies have been scrambling to unwind all their derivative trading to get ready for real transparency in their margins
Sept. 30, 2007, is the securities lending community's target date for automating the transmission of stock loan recall messages. Although there is no regulatory mandate to meet this deadline, the firms that borrow and lend stocks have been working together, and with DTCC, to bring everyone on board to dispense with the existing paper-intensive process.
"We're finally coming out of the dark ages," said Irving Klubeck, managing director, Pershing LLC and president of the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association's (SIFMA) Securities Lending Division. "Having an automated, auditable system for managing recalls will strengthen our ability to meet regulatory requirements and expedite the entire recall process, which translates into reduced financial exposure and lower costs.
A stock loan recall message is notification from a bank or broker/dealer that has lent securities to another firm that it is recalling the loan because it needs the position.
Although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires firms to send notices of stock loan recalls, it has not mandated how those notices are sent. As a result, the industry has been making due with timeworn methods. "The last big change in this business was back in the late 1970s, when we moved from delivering recalls by hand to using faxes," noted Klubeck. "Since then, the technology that has automated so many other industry segments has passed us by."
A stock loan recall message is notification from a bank or broker/dealer that has lent securities to another firm that it is recalling the loan because it needs the position.
Although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires firms to send notices of stock loan recalls, it has not mandated how those notices are sent. As a result, the industry has been making due with timeworn methods. "The last big change in this business was back in the late 1970s, when we moved from delivering recalls by hand to using faxes," noted Klubeck. "Since then, the technology that has automated so many other industry segments has passed us by."
posted
if you were caught watching your marbles disappear on the last big drop? you might wanna think about how to keep what you got back over the last two weeks...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:AP Stocks Surge on Rate Cut Hopes Monday October 1, 4:06 pm ET By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer Wall Street Surges After Manufacturing Report Raises Prospects for Another Interest Rate Cut
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street began the fourth quarter with a huge rally Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average above 14,000 and well into record territory for the first time in 2 1/2 months. Stocks were buoyed by a growing belief that the worst of the credit crisis has past.
While the beginning of the new quarter was an incentive for institutional investors to buy, the market was also encouraged that the worst might be over from the summer's credit and stock market turmoil. And new economic data might nudge the Federal Reserve toward another interest rate cut at its Oct. 30-31 meeting.
Investors bought financial shares on the belief that the industry has generally weathered the recent credit market upheaval. Both Citigroup and Switzerland's UBS AG issued third-quarter profit warnings, but indicated the current period might see a return to normal earnings levels.
The market grew more optimistic that the Fed might lower rates to boost the economy after a report showed that manufacturing grew in September at the slowest pace in six months. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity registered at 52.0 in September, below forecasts for a reading of at least 52.5.
"People are getting more confident there is going to be an October rate cut," said John C. Forelli, portfolio manager for Independence Investment. "To some degree, it looks like Citi kitchen-sinked the quarter, and that from here going forward will be calmer. That's underpinning the financials."
Enthusiasm about acquisition activity picked up after Nokia unveiled an $8.1 billion offer to buy navigation-software maker Navteq Corp. The deal was seen as a signal that corporations are feeling comfortable in making big moves despite recent market turbulence.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 191.92, or 1.38 percent, to 14,087.55.
The Dow surpassed its closing record of 14,000.41 set in mid-July, and moved into record territory, rising as high as 14,115.51 and eclipsing its previous intraday high of 14,021.95 set July 17.
Broader market indexes also rose sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.29, or 1.33 percent, to 1,547.04, nearing its all-time trading high of 1,555.90 reached in July. The Nasdaq composite index rose 39.49, or 1.46 percent, to 2,740.99.
posted
I enjoy watching the idiots on the so-called business news stations scream doom and gloom in the midst of a strong uptrend... then scream reversal on every sporadic upday in a downtrend. I don't hear a one of them talking about the fact we are still in the thirteen thousands...
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
well, i still beleive we have some serious fundamental problems to work thru...
the dollar is going to drop...
oil will go up..
the only thing that would bring oil down would be for Iraq to suddenly start producing as much as they used to again, and i don't see that happening....
even if oil production were to increase? the dollar drop would affect how low it goes...
DQR? whatdya think of the governors race here in MS? some pretty good mudslinging huh?
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
In Alabama now, but I did catch a Barbour commercial today, something about illegal immigration... pretty decent sounding... Man what a problem we have here on the coast. Every seafood restaurant is closing and turning into a Mexican eatery. Yeah the buck is dropping hard... Will for a long time too. There just isn't any real reason for it to reverse.. technical or fundamental... Which I kind of think plays into the stock market continuing it's climb.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
The markets recent climb is from rate cuts and great earnings from some big boys....who are laying off employees by the thousands and outsourcing
look around you..... does the dow really deserve to be at 12,000 or even 11,000?
The nasd should weather better being that tech is the primary function of alot of the companys traded. And techs basic value is to uhhhhhhh save people money by replacing workers.
JMO
-------------------- "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Posts: 4005 | From: Shaolin | Registered: Oct 2005
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posted
Is that 13+ or 13000+? It might be there(13000+) and stay there but justified? These guys can float that market pretty well just need to get bigger pontoons. Leading up to elections are usually good times for the market, but they better keep finding those pontoons.
Posts: 3875 | From: ca. | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: well Rimasco you there? or did you take the rest of the year off...
DOW down 340 with about 15 minutes to go...
Ive been really busy with all the volatility. Its so hard to hold these things short. I pretty much gave up and just look for bounces. Unless I see something ideal like CROX.
I shorted BIDU the other day got my ass handed to me.... now look at it
-------------------- "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Posts: 4005 | From: Shaolin | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: well Rimasco you there? or did you take the rest of the year off...
DOW down 340 with about 15 minutes to go...
Ive been really busy with all the volatility. Its so hard to hold these things short. I pretty much gave up and just look for bounces. Unless I see something ideal like CROX.
I shorted BIDU the other day got my ass handed to me.... now look at it
dude, unless you are running some serious analytical trading software, you are not likely to end up happy right now.
the reactions i've been seeing are crazy. CROX? cramer said CROX went up cuz of the new SHO rules and then when everybody covered they came in under analysts estimates... who the hell wears those things anyway? ...
take a look at BID for along play tomorrow...
they failed to sell a Van Gogh and the pps tanked?
Sotheby's Morning Art Sale Totals $34.8 Million, Below Estimate November 8, 2007 16:42 EST -- Sotheby's 3 1/2-hour morning sale of Impressionist and modern art totaled $34.8 million today in New York, below the $37.9 million low estimate and down more than a third from $58.7 million at a comparable sale in May. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conews&tkr=BID:US
i guess the middle easterners or the Russkies aren't Van Gogh fans huh? LOL...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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however, the last 5 years of "strong economic growth" has been consumer fed. "consumers" borrowed against their home equity and spent.. just like dubya told them to do...
Press Conference by the President Indian Treaty Room
For Immediate Release Office of the Press Secretary December 20, 2006
The unemployment rate has remained low, at 4.5 percent. A recent report on retail sales shows a strong beginning to the holiday shopping season across the country -- and I encourage you all to go shopping more.
this can be found at the whitehousedotgov...
this was just the last time in a long series of his urgings to spend like there's no tomorrow...
this season? we'll see how much equity is left...
Bush did nothing to mobilize public opinion to accept the sacrifices that war implies — the first thing a leader would do. Tax cuts could go ahead as planned, and energy saving was dismissed out of hand. “Go shopping” was the administration’s message. http://thinkprogress.org/2006/12/20/bush-shopping/
China has a fifty percent savings rate... the US has a NEGATIVE savings rate, and has since '05...
fearless leader has led US down a rabbit hole
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
The Bush family has no worries, whatever comes of the U.S. economy.
They have vast holding outside the country, untouchable by our courts or taxes and they can simply pull up stakes and move. They did that before when the Nazi reputation tainted the family after WWII (quite well deserved, I point out) and they pulled out of New England and set up housekeeping in Texas.
(By the way, claiming to be "in oil" is just a cover for the various Bush family holdings, much of which is tied to financing of the old German Nazi party and manufacturing for them. If you doubt this, do a serious search and see if you can find any instance of any member of the Bush family actually owning any serious part of any oil company or operation that did not loose money. Then look into their eager financing of the Nazi machine and the favors they got for doing it.)
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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