I putting my chips on RED for a bit
Posted by glassman on :
my "gut" has been saying that for awhile rim, but we've made about 500 points since i got the first signs of heartburn...
i think so many of the heavy hitters REALLY have been "hedging" that when they are being forced to cover their short positions it's helping the DOW (for now)...
Posted by rimasco on :
Its looks like the short covering has covered up and new positions are being established
Posted by rimasco on :
today was just a brief dead-cat bounce..IMO
Posted by glassman on :
it's really hard to tell ain't it...
more bad news on housing today
Top Lender Sees Mortgage Woes for ‘Good’ Risks
By VIKAS BAJAJ Published: July 25, 2007
Countrywide Financial, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, said yesterday that more borrowers with good credit were falling behind on their loans and that the housing market might not begin recovering until 2009 because of a decline in house prices that goes beyond anything experienced in decades.
and it's gonna get alot worse IMO before it gets better...
i'm starting to see long lines (and more often) at the "coin counting machines" at the grocery store...
that's a real bad sign...
we have the "ethanol economy" starting to really kick in at the consumer level.
also? i spent some time at a BIG reservoir this month, the number of boaters was way down.. especially waterskiers .. too 'spensive to fill the tank? which is good IMO..i fish...
Posted by rimasco on :
I seen the same thing out in the hamptons.... not to many boaters
Posted by rimasco on :
Looks like another digger
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
Hoping Fed will cut rates a little to try and pick up the market a bit next year. The wife is tired of the downtown scene and wants a yard.
Posted by rimasco on :
THE HORROR!!!!! dow down 271 nasd 67..... Posted by glassman on :
when do the circuit breakers pop? it's been awhile since we talked about that...
Damm..... I knew it was 10%....i should just went with my gut
Posted by rimasco on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: I putting my chips on RED for a bit
Posted by hedfe on :
three days out of five this week where dow closes down at least 200 points, anyone know the last time thats happened lol
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: Damm..... I knew it was 10%....i should just went with my gut
that would be a bloodbath... 13?0 points in one day.... we'd be seeing this:
Posted by rimasco on :
I seen this maybe 4 times over the last 10 years
I dont consider the market "healthy" when its overvauled. I think the DJI belongs between 10 and 11k.
I think the NASD is only slightly overvalued by maybe 4%
Posted by glassman on :
at best? it should not be growing above 8% a year....
Posted by turbokid on :
interestingly enough all precious metals were down during the day as well. i think the only thing up was investors tempers and Apple.. lol
Posted by rimasco on :
dead-cat bounce
Posted by glassman on :
i agree...
i can't beleive how the MSNBC crew is trying so hard to convince everybody the sky ain't falling...
they sound a little nervous to me...
last Fri? Cramer said buy Kellogs cuz the price of corn is gonna go down.. he obviously hasn't been talking to farmers
Posted by rimasco on :
I wouldnt be surprised if we bounce a little more this week. The MM's are going to suck investors in and get out of some more stock.
Then......CRACK, BOOM, SMACK!!!!
Posted by glassman on :
Kudlow is making me wanna puke rightnow....
these guys are in lalaland...
they have no clue how the govt figures don't reflect reality any more...
Posted by rimasco on :
Those guys just run on whatever the market did for the day....imo
you'll be hearing a totally different tune on the next reversal
Posted by rimasco on :
Looks like they might erase yesterdays DCB
Posted by Persia on :
God damn. Getting hammered.
Posted by rimasco on :
On high volume to......
NYSE Volume 4,199,527,000 Nasdaq Volume 2,669,853,000
Posted by glassman on :
i'm not even gonna watch Kudlow get on and make excuses and lie today
my charting says we drop thru 13000 and stay there for a month.....
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
YEP, I AGREE GLASS.
Posted by rimasco on :
My charts say we drop through 12000 and stay there for almost a year.......... Posted by The Bigfoot on :
My charting says it's time to have a beer and watch some baseball.
Looks like the Dow is determined to close positive today even if it only by a point or two.
Two hours to go.
Posted by rimasco on :
Market needs a SHREAD of good news...
seems to be whats gotten it this far...
shreads
Posted by rimasco on :
ummmmmmmmm NOT GOOD
Posted by rimasco on :
Maybe a withdrawl from Iraq and saving the country a couple o hundred billion would send the markets north?
Posted by rimasco on :
LMAO!!!! HOLY HEAD-FAKES BATMAN!
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
HOLY HEAD-FAKES BATMAN!
Posted by glassman on :
Cramer is telling people to default on their home loans now?
i think he needs to go back to his doctor and get his meds adjusted
sounds to me like he's going real bear on us...
he just said sell anything levered to housing.... when cramer goes on like this? i am wondering if my outlook has been too OPTIMISTIC...
i feel guilty when i'm bearish (not)
Posted by rimasco on :
You gotta love his schtick....he has a 50% chance of being right
Posted by Jo4321 on :
>>>Cramer is telling people to default on their home loans now? <<<
Yeah, I watched that video and it is just stupid. A house isn't normally just an investment. It's a way of life.
He's advising people to default on their loans, yet he doesn't mention any affect this might have on your credit rating.
The only way I'd think that would be a good idea is if you KNOW that you are likely to have to move soon due to a job transfer, etc. If you are staying put, it doesn't make sense to default and lose your way of life, IMO.
jo
Posted by rimasco on :
I gotta go up and catch CRAMMER repeat so i know what to tell my lender tomorrow.... Posted by glassman on :
prospective employers often pull a credit check too Jo...
in his defense? he was saying if you're at the end of your rope, but heck his "fans" are all rolling in the dough right? Posted by rimasco on :
Unfortunatley it does make sense. My friend got roped into one of those interest only loans. He put down 80g and to this date has 0 equity in his house and is paying a ridiculous amount on the balooned loan....
Posted by rimasco on :
what a weeeek!
Posted by hedfe on :
10 day moving average taking the dow lower
wonder if it will hold 100 day next week
Posted by hedfe on :
woah taking a dump -271
Posted by rimasco on :
and the carnage continues
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
DOWN 281- DOW 13,181.91
Posted by bdgee on :
Under the 100daMA of 13205.09
Posted by DrZ on :
Anyone jumping out of windows yet???
Posted by bdgee on :
Wouldn't work here, DrZ. Only one story.
Posted by hedfe on :
quote:Originally posted by DrZ: Anyone jumping out of windows yet???
lol down 281 points but thats only about 2% so no Posted by glassman on :
i'm looking for under 13,000 (at least)....
IMO? nobody has really cacklacked in the cost of diverting corn to ethanol yet, so it could be as low as Rim predicted...
it's a bullet we have to bite, but it'll pay off in the long run... the "problem" is how congress has set up the "welfare" for the big agro-biz's... we'll see further consolidation of "small farms".... this will leave US with no more players in the fuel business than we had before, but we'll hopefully cut our oil imports in half....
Posted by bdgee on :
Spend the amount of one month's cost of Iraq on research and development of fuel cells, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen production via renewable energy and it will cut petroleum imports much much more....probably to zero.
We have more than sufficient petroleum and oil reserves to supply the chemical industries without importing any, so we won't suffer any deficiencies of polymers and such.
Posted by rimasco on :
With the markets recent "irrational exuberance" last weeks drop coud still be viewed as a healthy pull back and or correction.
Posted by hedfe on :
up over 200 now market can't make up its mind or something Posted by rimasco on :
Im not saying I agree but........
How Speculators Exploit Market Fears by Ben Stein
Posted on Thursday, August 2, 2007, 12:00AM Here's a fact: The speculators and hedge fund managers who run today's stock market need market volatility in order to make money.
They can't make enough money if the market stays flat or moves only a bit, so they like extreme and unexpected price movements. They especially like sudden, surprise movements down, when they can make money off stocks they borrow and sell -- or, as they say, "sell short."
Money Lust Satisfied
That's what's been happening the past couple of weeks. But it's not interesting to say that the speculators are whipping the market around to satisfy their money lust. So the speculators themselves make up reasons for why the market is fluctuating, flog those reasons to the media, and then profit if some other speculators believe the jive reasons and jump in the way the manipulators want them to.
Supposedly, the market is "correcting" because of worries about the housing slowdown, and also because of fears that the debt markets that support mergers and acquisitions is drying up.
These are interesting theories, and people who don't know a lot about the stock market or the economy might find them beguiling. What follows are a few truths that show how shallow these "reasons" for the stock market moves are.
Housing a Theory
Yes, the housing market has slowed from a spectacular bubble level to a simply pretty good level. Housing sales and starts are now about what they were in 2002, and no one thought we were in a housing depression then.
In any event, housing is only about 5 percent of the economy. If it falls by 15 percent, that would represent a fall-off of about .75 percent. That's not trivial, but it's also not the stuff of which recessions are made.
The fact is that there is no recession. The economy is suffering from a labor shortage, not a surplus of unemployment. The Fed is worried about excess demand, not slack demand.
Corporate profits set new records every day. Whatever's happening in residential sales and building is simply not slowing down the economy. Why should a Boeing or a Merck or a Pfizer have any reaction to housing at all? Because the speculators sell everything they can when nervousness sets in -- and for no other reason.
A Minor Major Mess
Subprime is a mess. But it's a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That's 4 percent of mortgages.
Of these, maybe half, or 2 percent, will go into foreclosure. There will be roughly 50 percent recovery on sale of these. This is a loss of 1 percent in the mortgage market -- a sum the lenders have already made many times over because of the hefty fees on those deals. In the context of the size of the U.S. financial sector, it's nothing.
And why should a crisis in subprime drive down stocks in Mexico and Thailand? Again, because the speculators seek to create panic to make money by selling short, and they sell short everything.
There's simply no connection between subprime and developed or developing nations' stocks. This by itself shows the thin context of the selling wave late last month.
Money's Still Cheap
What about the supposed drying up of loans for mergers and acquisitions by private equity firms? Well, here's a good, simple test of just how valid that explanation is for stock market moves: The majority of private equity takeovers are financed with junk debt.
If there really were a major shortage of funds for these deals, the interest rate on the junk would skyrocket. Instead, while the rate has risen by about 150 basis points in the past month, the spread between junk and investment grade is now about 290 basis points, according to leading junk analyst Martin Fridson.
This is a lot lower than the year-end average of the spread from 2002 to 2006, and far below the almost 800 basis point spread during a true interest-rate crunch like the one after the tech meltdown in 2000-2002.
So that's phony, too. Interest rates have risen, but not anything like what they've done in real crises. And besides, the Dow fell by about 550 points the week before last, yet not one of the Dow stocks is involved as either acquiror or acquiree in a private equity deal.
In short, money is no longer virtually free the way it was for private equity deals in the past year. But it's not expensive by historical standards, either.
Spreading the Fear
In other words, it's all the speculators trying to panic us so their sell programs will make money. And they'll make money as long as they can spread their panic. When they can't do that any longer, they'll work the long side -- and make up reasons for that, too.
In the meantime, the economy is strong. Profits are great, and interest rates are low and will stay that way. Don't sell. With all the shrieking about the market, it only fell to what it was about five weeks ago -- and we didn't think we were poor then.
So let the speculators shout "fire." As of right now, they're not blowing anything but smoke.
Posted by glassman on :
Subprime is a mess. But it's a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That's 4 percent of mortgages.
they still haven't factored in REAL inflation and the cost of switching to ethanol yet...
all of these bogus inflation numbers are making the problem seem more minor than it really is...
corporate earnings are up, but they come from somewhere... (guess who? the middle class)
before long the mortgage woes will probably also include a significant portion of non-sub-prime mortgages...
and IMO the sub-prime problem will amount to well over 75% of the sub-prime market...
one of the reasons that the job market is not suffering from the construction slow-down is that the illegals fill a large portion of those jobes...
Posted by rimasco on :
Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged Tuesday August 7, 2:38 pm ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged; Concerns About Inflation Play Into Decision
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged on Tuesday as worries about inflation trumped concerns about turbulent financial markets. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues voted unanimously to keep their target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, at 5.25 percent, where it has been for more than a year.
The Fed decision came after a volatile couple of weeks on Wall Street as investors have been beset by troubles in global credit markets stemming from a sharp rise in defaults on subprime mortgages.
In a brief statement, the Fed acknowledged the turbulence and said the downside risks to the economy had "increased somewhat."
But the Fed continued to state that the predominant risk remained that inflation "will fail to moderate as expected."
Many analysts believe the Fed will remain on hold through the rest of this year, preferring to watch and make sure that inflation moderates back to an acceptable level.
The Fed's statement was a disappointment to Wall Street, where investors had held out the hope that the ongoing problems in credit markets would prompt the Fed to send a signal that it was prepared to ease rates later this year if conditions worsened. In the first half hour of trading after the mid-afternoon announcement, the Dow Jones industrial average fell by 90 points.
Tuesday marked the ninth consecutive meeting where the Fed has left its key policy lever unchanged. The last rate move was a quarter-point increase, the 17th in a row, on June 29, 2006. That capped a two-year campaign that pushed the funds rate from a 46-year low of 1 percent to its current level in a bid to slow the economy enough to keep inflation under control.
The decision to leave rates unchanged means that banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, will remain where it has been for the past year at 8.25 percent.
As it did at its June meeting, the central bank said that the readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months.
A key inflation gauge watched closely by the Fed which excludes food and energy was up 1.9 percent over the 12 months ending in June, putting it back within what is widely perceived as the Fed's comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent.
On the overall economy, the Fed noted the recent problems.
"Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing," the statement said.
But with all of these problems, the Fed repeated its belief from past statements that "the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters." The statement said the U.S. economy would be supported by solid growth in employment and a "robust global economy."
The overall economy, after having slowed to a barely discernible growth rate of 0.6 percent in the first three months of this year, grew at a solid annual rate of 3.4 percent in the April-June period even though the slumping housing market continued to subtract from growth.
Economists expect continued troubles in housing and spreading problems with subprime mortgages and other loans acting to slow growth to a more moderate pace of around 2.5 percent in the final half of this year.
Growth at that pace would not be fast enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The government announced last week that the jobless rate in June rose to 4.6 percent, the highest level in six months, and many economists believe it will end the year up around 5 percent. That would still be relatively low by historical standards.
Posted by glassman on :
worries about inflation trumped concerns about turbulent financial markets.
of course they do..
i'm glad somebody in the Fed is not in lalaland.. Posted by rimasco on :
frog Mutha F*&kers
__________________________________________________ Dow Plunges More Than 200 Thursday August 9, 9:39 am ET By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer Dow Industrials Plunge More Than 200 on Renewed Subprime Mortgage Concerns
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street plunged in early trading today, yanking the Dow Jones industrials down more than 200 points after a French bank said it was freezing three securities funds that struggled to find liquidity in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. ADVERTISEMENT
A few minutes into the session, the Dow is down 217.70 at 13,440.16. The Nasdaq Compsosite is off 37.79 to 2,575.19 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index has falled 26.93 to 12,470.56.
The announcement by BNP Paribas raised the specter of a widening impact of U.S. credit market problems. The idea that anyone -- institutions, investors, companies, individuals -- can't get money when they need it unnerved a stock market that has suffered through weeks of intense volatility triggered by concerns about available credit.
A move by the European Central Bank to provide more cash to money markets intensified Wall Street's angst -- although the bank's loan of more than $130 billion in overnight funds to banks at a bargain rate of 4 percent was intended to calm investors, Wall Street saw the step as confirmation of the credit markets' problems.
Bonds rose sharply as investors again sought the relative safety of Treasurys, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note falling to 4.78 percent from 4.89 percent late Wednesday. Bond prices move opposite yields.
Thursday's plunge continued an erratic pattern of triple-digit moves in the Dow for several weeks. There has been more panic and gambling in those moves rather than conviction -- even when the Dow has finished up more than 280 points in a session, those gains have evaporated at the first mention of trouble in housing, subprime lending or the credit markets
Posted by glassman on :
rim, IMO? they are just trying to cover thier butts before the Chinese pull the plug...
will the Chinese pull the plug? idunno, but they can...
Posted by rimasco on :
Why would they cover there butts, I thought they like that sorta thing?
They just never seem to help in ANY situation
Posted by glassman on :
NYSE trading curbs just kicked (the dreaded circuit breaker?)
why would the Chinese start selling the US Tbonds they hold?
simple: they don't see money the same way we do...
i have never understood how our "free market" is supposed to compete with state-run "business"...
the Chinese are now like a huge hedge fund run by a few people and they are not looking at the markets the same way the West does...
in any war? you are gonna take casualties. the "trick" is to minimize them...
the Chinese have started to move in to private equity and public equity...
if they can depress our markets? they can buy in cheap...
this situation has been years in the planning...
Posted by rimasco on :
I thought they kick in at 10%?
Posted by glassman on :
CNBC announced they kicked in, i guess the initial drop was too precipitous...
Whenever CNBC runs a banner on your television screen that says CURBS IN or CURBS IN, we receive a ton of email from investors asking "What are curbs?" Here is the answer for you:
Program Trading "Collars"
Program Trading "Collars" A collar on program trading firms instituted by the NYSE is most commonly referred to on CNBC as "curbs in". The NYSE applies program trading curbs whenever the NYSE Composite Index (NYA) moves 190 points higher, or 190 points lower than the previous day's closing price.
This NYSE restriction on program trades stays in place until the NYA returns to within 90 points of the previous day's closing price; or, until the end of the trading day at 3:00 CT. The restrictions will be re-imposed each time the NYA advances or declines 190 points. NYSE Trading Curbs apply only to our firm's (and other program trading firm's) computer assisted program trades. Contrary to what the public thinks, these collars do not completely stop all program trading, nor do they cancel out today's premium (prem) execution levels.
The NYSE defines a Program Trade as: 1. A basket of 15 or more stocks from the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. 2. A basket of stocks from the Standard & Poor's 500 Index valued at $1 million or more.
Once the NYSE program trading collar is in place, Program Selling can be executed only on an up-tick. That means that the last trade was executed at a higher price than the trade before it. Program Buying can be executed only on a down-tick. That means that the last trade was executed at a lower price than the trade before it.
Program Trading "Circuit Breakers" If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 10%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for 60 minutes. If the Dow Jones rallies 10%, there is no restriction. Why? Because program buying and the accompany rally is always perceived as "good".
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 20%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for two hours. There is no trading halt if it rallies 20%, as that would be perceived as "very very good".
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 30%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for the day. There is no trading halt if it rallies 30%, as that would be perceived as "the best thing that ever happened in the history of the world".
and you thought we had/have a "free" market? Posted by rimasco on :
Strange? They do help stabilize the market....A LITTLE.
I remember the first time they used them...I think it was the late 90's. It actually seem to ahve the opposite effect that first time.
Posted by rimasco on :
It does suck if your stuck short and they kick in.......id much rather be long......
from a daytrading perspective of course
Posted by glassman on :
the curbs kick in both ways..
Posted by rimasco on :
So they sayyyyyy........ Posted by Jo4321 on :
Uh oh over 300 points down now
Posted by hedfe on :
dow down 300 + today up 150 yesterday though
crazy volatility Posted by rimasco on :
Ohhhh god kramers gonna have another meltdown!
yeah right cause he cares about the wittle people
Posted by glassman on :
cramer? what about Kudlow... he'll be blaming the Democrats somehow..
are those banjos getting louder? Posted by bdgee on :
I don't care who they are blaming, this is ugly and I think will stay at least this ugly for weeks.
Posted by rimasco on :
Unless they get it out of the way in one FOUL swoop.....
I see us careening through 13k next week....
of course if you woulda asked me that yesterday..... Posted by rimasco on :
funny thing is my brother told me all his stops got triggered tuesday and he was pissed with yesterdays bounce. I told him...the weeks not over yet
then I made fun of him and told him "LOL they took your stock"
Posted by hedfe on :
thankfully im changing brokers so not in the market today Posted by glassman on :
delinquencies moving beyond sub-prime...
why is this such a shock?
the lenders had an open-house for four years...
Posted by bdgee on :
The shock is that foreign nations have waited this long to holler "foul".
Damned decent of them, I'd have to say.
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
DOW -DOWN 387 NOW AT 13,270.68
Posted by glassman on :
this "credit crunch" has a long time to go before it's fully played out:
Subprime problems spread AIG sees uptick in defaults in more credit categories. European investors feel the pain too. August 9 2007: 4:40 PM EDT
More than 2 million hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) come up for reset this fall - peaking in October with more than $50 billion due.
Borrowers who took out hybrid ARMs in 2004 and 2005 to secure low "teaser" rates for the first two or three years of the loan may see their monthly mortgage payments climb by 35 percent or more.
Subprime ARMs issued during the last three months of 2006 could fare worst of all, with a projected foreclosure rate of just under 20 percent during the fall of 2011. That would mean a full one in five owners still paying off subprime ARMs from late 2006 - about 12,000 in all - would lose their homes. Many others from that group would have already lost their homes to foreclosure in the previous years.
The fed shoulda kept the marekt under wraps better...then again its all the same. The markets will find there place.
Only problem is I think its place is 1000+.....LOWER Posted by rimasco on :
If the markets could stay green at the close. It wil be a nice reversal indicator
Posted by glassman on :
Fed injects $38 bln, conducts third operation Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:26PM EDT
By Tamawa Kadoya
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve provided the banking system with $38 billion on Friday, the largest amount of liquidity since the days after the September 11 attacks six years ago, adding ample funds for the second day running as financial markets fretted over credit conditions.
The Fed also took the unusual step of making a rare statement after the first operation -- the first time it's done so since the September 11, 2001, terror attacks -- in an effort to calm investors' fears.
Central banks worldwide have now injected at least $326.3 billion in the past 48 hours to prevent markets from spinning into a global liquidity squeeze. Short-term interest rates spiked in response to banks' decreased willingness to lend to each other. Posted by rimasco on :
markets closed down....s&p up barely....
still not a bullish sign
Posted by glassman on :
i'm a bit surprised that the Fed has reacted this strongly...
all they are doing is dragging this out...
how many times can they inject more cash like this without driving the dollar down harder than its already gonna go?
Posted by glassman on :
good article here:
Q&A: Bankers at a loss to add up the bill
By Gillian Tett in London and Richard Beales in New York
Published: August 10 2007 17:51 | Last updated: August 10 2007 17:51
Why are the equity markets in a spin?
Why do we not know who is holding this stuff? (bad notes)
One key reason is that, in the past few years, bankers have used these mortgages to create financial instruments, such as bonds and derivatives, which have been sold to banks, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds in global markets, sometimes far away from the home of the underlying debt.
next phase? the credit card co's will start hiking rates...
i am looking for verification right now (on a rumor) that credit card debt in the US doubled over the last 12 months..
this was inevitable as people stopped getting second and third mortgages, but still couldn't live within their budgets...
OK, it's not doubled, it's double expectations:
Associated Press Consumer Credit Up in June By MARTIN CRUTSINGER 08.07.07, 3:24 PM ET WASHINGTON -
Consumers boosted their borrowing more than expected in June, reflecting another hefty jump in credit card debt.
The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in June. It marked the second straight sizable gain. Consumer credit rose by an even larger 7.9 percent in May.
The increase was led by an 8.4 percent rate of increase for revolving credit, the category that includes credit card debt. The category that includes auto loans rose at a 5.3 percent rate, the same as in May.
Total consumer credit rose by $13.2 billion in June to a record $2.459 trillion. The increase was double what economists had been expecting.
this will also add to liquidity problems....
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: i'm not even gonna watch Kudlow get on and make excuses and lie today
my charting says we drop thru 13000 and stay there for a month.....
almost there now....
Posted by glassman on :
CEO of Thornburg Mortgage says Chap. 11 would only make their situation worse?
Jumbo mortgages are their specialty.... their avg mortgage is more than 450K$.. this is NOT a good sign...
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
Anyone think we stay above 13,000 today?
I don't.
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
Here comes the drop?
...13:37 currently -20 (13008) on the DJI
Posted by hedfe on :
closed at 200 day
will it hold it? .....
lol Posted by retiredat49 on :
#%&*#%$
Posted by rimasco on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: Unless they get it out of the way in one FOUL swoop.....
I see us careening through 13k next week....
of course if you woulda asked me that yesterday.....
Not to toot my own horn.....TOOOOOT!!!TOOOOOOT!!
I dont see an end in sight. I said it before ill say it again. The Dow belongs between 10 and 11k The nasd I think is almost on par.
Im still waiting for the HUGE down day where we close green. I dont think it will be a sustained rally though.
Posted by hedfe on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: [QUOTE]
Im still waiting for the HUGE down day where we close green.
How is that possible? Posted by J_U_ICE on :
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
quote:Originally posted by IMAKEMONEY: DOWN 281- DOW 13,181.91
LOOK FOR 12,500 THEN BUY JMO! Posted by glassman on :
it's afreefallin...
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
That might be today Imake
Down 100 point in 5 minutes
Posted by glassman on :
what i can't get over is all these talking heads that don't get it....
they keep saying earnings are good....
the debt load of our nation is unbeleivable...
mortgage foreclosures are double from last year.
i hear that 6% of americans are behind on their mortgages...
i'm looking for some verification to that rumor...
Posted by rimasco on :
quote:Originally posted by hedfe:
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: [QUOTE]
Im still waiting for the HUGE down day where we close green.
How is that possible?
Huge sell-off...selling drys up then a strong rally into the close
Look up key-reversal. Its a very bullish indicator... usually means the selling is done....FOR A FEW
Posted by glassman on :
the problem is that the Fed keeps injecting cash...
and they aren't being very straightforward about the how and why of it...
this just puts off the inevitable...
i have been looking at the use of margin market wide for about two years now, and i kept seeing numbers that were WORSE than the '29 crash...
i don't think we are in for a crash, but i do think there was too much leverage in the markets...
i suspect the Fed knows things we don't...
i never suspected how much leverage was tied untraded securities.. that's a major portion of the problem... in one week? Thornburgs mortgage portfolios was "repriced" at about a 25% loss..
they have high quality jumbo mortgages..
say you are leveraged at ten to one, and your collateral loses 50% in one week? that's magnified at 10 to one on the market...
Posted by madmoney on :
americas LARGEST home mortgage provider - counrywide announce they are drawing down thier ENTIRE 11.5 BILLION dollar credit line to stave off thier liquidity crisis!! holy crap!!! no more credit for you!!! the sh!t has not begun to hit the fan!!!! YET!!!
Posted by rimasco on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: what i can't get over is all these talking heads that don't get it....
they keep saying earnings are good....
the debt load of our nation is unbeleivable...
mortgage foreclosures are double from last year.
i hear that 6% of americans are behind on their mortgages...
i'm looking for some verification to that rumor...
Me and a friend would have long discussions trying to figure out how they where proping this market up....FOR THE LAST 2 YEARS.
Credit card debt Housing bubble Inflation(that everybody seems to be denying) Fuel/energy(accross the board) Katrina And of course Iraq(at this point its just a crazy money pit)
Posted by glassman on :
interesting:
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage hit 6.44 percent last week after reaching a 45-year low of 5.21 percent in mid-June, according to mortgage titan Freddie Mac.
the date of this article is
More fall behind on mortgage Foreclosures may rise if job losses continue
Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, September 11, 2003
In the growing sub-prime category, which serves consumers with lower credit scores, mortgage defaults jumped to 12.99 percent from 12.4 percent
you are right Rim, this has been building up for a long time huh?
Posted by hedfe on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco:
quote:Originally posted by hedfe:
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: [QUOTE]
Im still waiting for the HUGE down day where we close green.
How is that possible?
Huge sell-off...selling drys up then a strong rally into the close
Look up key-reversal. Its a very bullish indicator... usually means the selling is done....FOR A FEW
I see what you mean, like a hammer on a candlestick
Posted by rimasco on :
I thought so....Oh I cant believe I forgot to put the "big three" on my list. How many plants closed and people did they lay off in the last coiple of years?
Werent they always the backbone of this country? And now Toyota for the first time in history beat out all of them..... Posted by rimasco on :
I see what you mean, like a hammer on a candlestick
Yes a hammer looks the same. EXCEPT! What I was taught....a true key reversal was: new 52 week lows or highs followed by the EOD reversal and it should be on very high volume.
Posted by rimasco on :
I agree, I think it woulda been nice if they did it at the schedualed meeting. But I think the name alone "emergency rate cut" will only fuel the the markets mentality
Fed's Poole says no need for emergency rate cut Thursday August 16, 7:31 am ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said on Wednesday financial market turmoil had not undermined the U.S. economy and there was no need for the central bank to ride to the rescue with an emergency rate cut.
"It's premature to say that this upset in the market is changing the course of the economy in any fundamental way," he said in an interview with Bloomberg. "Obviously, there could be an impact, but we have to rely on some real evidence."
Global stock markets have fallen sharply as investors increasingly shy away from risky assets amid signs the troubles in the U.S. subprime mortgage market have resulted in a drying up of credit in broader markets.
Poole said market developments would extend the housing slump, but that it was uncertain how long the downturn would last and how deep it would be.
"The issue for me is whether it's going to spread into business fixed investment and the consumer segment more broadly. I don't see evidence that that's taking place," Poole said.
The St. Louis Fed chief said that barring a "calamity," there was no need for the U.S. central bank to consider cutting interest rates before policy-makers gather for their next regularly scheduled meeting on September 18, Bloomberg said.
Interest rate futures prices show an expectation the Fed will lower borrowing costs by at least a quarter-percentage point at its next meeting on September 18, and a chance it cuts rates sooner.
"If the data confirm the market's view that the economy is sagging, we'll have to decide whether to share that view," Poole said.
Poole, who is among the voter's this year on the Fed's policy-setting panel, said there was little evidence to suggest companies are changing their spending or hiring plans.
"I have not changed fundamentally my outlook," he said. "As I talk to companies, their capital spending plans are intact."
Credit market stresses tied to rising defaults in the U.S. subprime mortgage market led the Fed and other central banks around the globe to pump money into banking systems over the past week in an effort to ward off a credit crunch.
Poole said the Fed was in touch with the markets and would "supply more cash as necessary" to meet short-term demand for funds.
He also said that while U.S. inflation was "moving in the right direction," the "job is not done."
At their last meeting on August 7, Fed policy-makers said tightening credit conditions had increased downside risks to economic growth, but they reaffirmed that their main concern was a risk that inflation would fail to ease.
Posted by madmoney on :
just as countrywide mortgage draws down 11.5 billion in credit to stave off bankruptcy we learn that the CEO sold over 670 thousand option shares for an average price of 31 bucks pocketing a nice 13 million profit, stock is currently trading at about 18 bucks!!!! tell me he did not see this comming! SWEET!!!!!
Posted by rimasco on :
If anybodys bored with watching the market get lambasted. Watch that zeitgeist. Fast forward it to 1:10. its gives a little history lesson on the reponsibilty and function of the fed reserve/central bank.....
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: If anybodys bored with watching the market get lambasted. Watch that zeitgeist. Fast forward it to 1:10. its gives a little history lesson on the reponsibilty and function of the fed reserve/central bank.....
I watched this, unfortunately I believe every word! the fed was created to serve the big money elite at the exspense of the working class.
Posted by hedfe on :
12,600 is support on weekly chart for dow
gonna test it
Posted by hedfe on :
already down 250+ only noon lol 4 more hours could get really ugly
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by madmoney:
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: If anybodys bored with watching the market get lambasted. Watch that zeitgeist. Fast forward it to 1:10. its gives a little history lesson on the reponsibilty and function of the fed reserve/central bank.....
I watched this, unfortunately I believe every word! the fed was created to serve the big money elite at the exspense of the working class.
and the "globalization" of the economy has basically destroyed the ability of the working class to have what little control it has been able to gain over the last 40 years..
if you like the Zeitgeist movie? i also recommend a book called Fingerprints of the Gods by Graham Hancock... it's been around for about 15 years....
he goes into some dead ends on his speculations, but he does some good presentations on how "tied together" many of the religions are...
it all seems to me to point to the likelihood that civilization is much older than currnetly accepted belief...
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
50 more points and we hit your 12500 Imake. You gonna buy in?
Posted by rimasco on :
I think Imake should stand down or risk a name change.....
Nothing wrong with waiting for the smoke to clear...
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
quote:Originally posted by The Bigfoot: 50 more points and we hit your 12500 Imake. You gonna buy in?
GOTTA START BUYING AT SOME POINT 12,500 IS MY STARTING PIONT. Posted by Mortimer on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco:
quote:Originally posted by hedfe:
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: [QUOTE]
Im still waiting for the HUGE down day where we close green.
How is that possible?
Huge sell-off...selling drys up then a strong rally into the close
Look up key-reversal. Its a very bullish indicator... usually means the selling is done....FOR A FEW
Spooky man.
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
LOL Looks like Imake got his 12500 and Rim got his freefall that ends green.
LOL
Posted by retiredat49 on :
YEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSS
Posted by glassman on :
kudo's to Rim, and Imake:
i just wish i didn't feel like it's too soon for the turn around to happen....
Posted by retiredat49 on :
I hear that Glass...just happy that we didn't drop another 300 frickin points today (which is what we were down an hour ago)
Posted by glassman on :
MSNBC says there was a short squeeze on the financial sector....
my guess is that the Fed injections are working....
i ams till trying to figure out how an injection works...
do they "make" people borrow money? Posted by glassman on :
now they are showing the DOW closed red after all.. but not by much...
Posted by rimasco on :
Ya see this is how they screw with us.....was it a reversal? Dow (their showing) closed red. NASD red. But the s&p closed green. Technically on the markets NO
Im sorry, I think theres gonna be some more blood letting. Maybe not to tomorrow with that finish. But my gut is telling me.....its not over
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Wow, I'm glad I was out shopping and wasn't around to see the 340 point drop.
Posted by madmoney on :
The escape of the enablers When Wall Street fails, it inevitably asks for a handout. Fortune's Allan Sloan says there must be a better way. By Allan Sloan, Fortune senior editor-at-large August 17 2007: 9:39 AM EDT
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Wall Street loves to talk about letting financial markets weed out the weak. But when the Street itself gets in trouble, it sticks out its little tin cup, asking for help. And gets it.
The subprime-mortgage-market meltdown is a classic example of the way small fry get devoured, but the whales of Wall Street get rescued. Here's the deal: People with crummy credit who took out mortgages are being allowed to fail in record numbers. The mortgage companies that made those loans are being allowed to fail.
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The Street itself? It's bailout city. Even before the Fed made a symbolic half-point cut in the discount rate, it and other central banks from Switzerland to Singapore were trying to rescue the Street by injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial markets and announcing they will put up more, if needed.
Latest casualty on Wall Street: Summer getaways Hello? If you believe in markets - which I do - this rescue is especially galling, because Wall Street enabled this mess in the first place. How so? By happily sucking up hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of suspect mortgages from marginal U.S. borrowers-and begging mortgage makers to create more of them. The Street sliced and diced this financial toxic waste into a variety of esoteric securities, making a nice markup when it sold them and generating a continuing stream of profits when it made markets in them.
Somehow analysts at credit-rating agencies, looking at computerized scenarios rather than at the real world, decided that the bulk of the securities backed by these trashy loans could be rated triple-A.
It's really amazing: Most of the loans to substandard creditors borrowing 100% of the purchase price of homes they couldn't afford were rated the same as GE and the federal government. That makes no sense. But the money rolled in, and Wall Street-by which I mean the world's biggest and most important financial institutions-didn't care about the real world or ask any questions. It was too busy making money, and cashing bonus checks generated by subprime-mortgage profits.
Pink slips hit Wall Street But the world's central banks aren't letting the big guys fail. Think of it as the Escape of the Enablers. The reason this is happening, of course, is the same reason that the Fed orchestrated a bailout of the infamous Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund a decade ago-and about 20 years ago didn't close some of the nation's biggest banks, even though they were effectively insolvent because unrealized losses had wiped out their capital.
It's the "too big to fail" syndrome. In a world in which big players make incredibly large and complex deals with one another - that's what derivatives are - regulators don't dare let a big or important institution fail for fear that the collapse of one would lead to "cascading failures," and other institutions wouldn't be able to collect what the collapsed institution owed them.
The Fed's job, you see, isn't to protect you and me and our retirement portfolios, or even many of the nation's largest companies and biggest employers. The Fed's job is to protect the financial system. That's why it's trying to rescue the gigantic subprime enablers while letting borrowers and mortgage companies go under.
Your collapse or mine wouldn't bother Fed chairman Ben Bernanke or the world's other central bankers. But if, say, a big German institution loaded to the eyeballs with subprime securities croaked, Bernanke and his fellow central bankers would care a lot.
Sure, we know that Ben and the boys will always bail out the biggies. And none of us - I think, anyway - wants the world's financial system to implode. But I'd feel a lot better if the Street had to pay a serious price to its rescuers--say, having to fork over a big equity stake and pay a loan-shark interest rate. That way taxpayers, who are picking up the tab for the rescue, would get paid bigtime for taking on bigtime risk.
After all, that's the Wall Street way.
Posted by glassman on :
IMO? the bailout will just increase the problems long-term....
Posted by madmoney on :
this "rate cut" is a non-event! just a market mind game crafted to give false hope! dow will close red today. my prediction is the dow will be under 11000 by the end of september. the worst is yet to come!! sequence of events, rate cut/rally/dollar collapse/sell-off.
Posted by rimasco on :
I agree, I think it woulda been nice if they did it at the schedualed meeting. But I think the name alone "emergency rate cut" will only fuel the the markets mentality
I agree madmoney, back in the late 90s they did some of these surpirse cuts....to no avail...I think they were better off waiting till sept. They should have just stuck with "the economy is still healthy". and continued to lie out their asses.
My cousin asked me how I felt about the market and I told him. "I dont know why people are flipping out this market was never supposed to be up that high" as a matter of fact I was probably more nervous watching this market rally through 13k then 14k....feeling in my gut that the SHlT was gonna hit the fan. People gotta learn that those insane rallies are just as unhealty for the market...when the smoke clears. Ill tell you guys like I told him. I'll be nervous if the dow goes through 10,000.
the market will find its place....
Posted by madmoney on :
[The Fed] cut a symbolic rate that no one uses and the stock market is predicted to have its biggest up-day in history. This underscores how psychological this selloff has been. Sometimes it is better to make statements than to actually do anything. –Bianco Research The Fed’s discount rate cut this morning was a meaningless gesture. The discount rate was at one time the means by which the Fed set policy, but those days are long gone. Today it is little more than an emergency funding mechanism for banks that due to weakened condition, do not have access to the Fed Funds market, which by the way traded at 5% last night. So the discount rate “cut” keeps the discount window .75% above the current market. Big freaking deal, huh? … All in all, the Fed’s action this morning seems like a mean, stupid, and futile gesture, worthy of Animal House for its humor and theatrical impact. –Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner We can only speculate about this, but the decision to move the primary discount rate rather than the Fed funds rate may indicate that the Fed anticipates some institutional failure as soon as today, probably not a bank, but rather an institution that has substantial bank liabilities that may not be able to clear. Markets should not be calmed by this tactic. Unlike the Fed funds rate — which affects all banks’ cost of funds — a discount rate cut only lowers the cost of emergency borrowing by institutions in distress. This move is not going to provide any relief to the overall economy. However, we believe that the Fed’s action and statement today raise the odds of a reduction in the Fed funds rate at the September FOMC meeting, or perhaps even before.. –High Frequency Economics August 17, 2007, 9:46 am Explaining the Discount Window The discount window is a channel for banks and thrifts to borrow directly from the Fed rather than in the markets. Until a few years ago, the discount rate was set below the fed funds rate and loans were subject to numerous conditions. Banks were reluctant to access the window because it was associated with a stigma usually reserved for distressed banks. A few years ago the Fed overhauled the discount window to try and alleviate that stigma; the rate was then set one percentage point above the funds rate and subject to far fewer conditions. In spite of that, discount window borrowing has remained paltry. Discount lending averaged just $11 million in the week ended Aug. 15. Although that was up from $1 million in the prior week it was puny compared to the billions of dollars the Fed has regularly injected into the financial system through open market operations.
Fed officials hope that reducing the penalty rate associated with the window and lengthening the term of loans to 30 days from one further lifts the stigma and gives it a tool to supplement open market operations for reliquefying markets. Open market operations, under which the Fed buys and sells securities to adjust the supply of bank reserves and keep the federal funds rate on target, primarily operate through a network of primary dealers, some of whom are large banks. Thus, they have only indirect impact as a supply of funds for the thousands of banks that are not active in the money market. The discount window however is available to any bank or thrift, and the terms are easier than for fed funds loans. For example, banks may submit mortgage loans, including subprime loans that aren’t impaired, as collateral, and many probably will.
Posted by rimasco on :
[The Fed] cut a symbolic rate that no one uses and the stock market is predicted to have its biggest up-day in history. This underscores how psychological this selloff has been. Sometimes it is better to make statements than to actually do anything. –Bianco Research
LMAO! Wow I came up with that on my own! Who the hell is getting paid for this and how do I?
Posted by madmoney on :
Aug.17,Bank Run on CFC
Perhaps the Fed was trying to provide liquidity to CFC.
From the LA Times: Worried about the stability of mortgage giant Countrywide Financial, depositors crowd branches.
Anxious customers jammed the phone lines and website of Countrywide Bank and crowded its branch offices to pull out their savings because of concerns about the financial problems of the mortgage lender that owns the bank. ... At Countrywide Bank offices, in a scene rare since the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis ended in the early '90s, so many people showed up to take out some or all of their money that in some cases they had to leave their names. ------------ IT`S GONNA GET UGLY!!!
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by madmoney: Aug.17,Bank Run on CFC
Perhaps the Fed was trying to provide liquidity to CFC.
From the LA Times: Worried about the stability of mortgage giant Countrywide Financial, depositors crowd branches.
Anxious customers jammed the phone lines and website of Countrywide Bank and crowded its branch offices to pull out their savings because of concerns about the financial problems of the mortgage lender that owns the bank. ... At Countrywide Bank offices, in a scene rare since the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis ended in the early '90s, so many people showed up to take out some or all of their money that in some cases they had to leave their names. ------------ IT`S GONNA GET UGLY!!!
yes, it could get ugly...
some of us were very disturbed when this legislation was passed,
Congress OKs melding banks, insurers and brokerages; Main provisions Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, The, Nov 5, 1999 by MARCY GORDON, Douglas Armstrong
Congress on Thursday sent President Clinton a sweeping bill for reshaping the financial landscape by tearing down the Depression-era barriers between banks, insurance companies and investment firms.
The vote in the Senate was an overwhelming 90-8, with seven Democrats and one Republican saying no. The House vote several hours later was 362-57, with Republicans in solid support and Democrats split.
President Clinton said he was eager to sign the bill, despite warnings from Democratic critics that it could lead to price-gouging of consumers and to financial conglomerates that are simply too big and powerful. Consumer groups and liberal lawmakers have bitterly opposed the legislation, which has been around for more than two decades, on grounds it would jeopardize consumers' financial privacy. The measure will bring "the concentration of more and more economic power in the hands of fewer and fewer people," liberal Sen. Paul Wellstone (D- Minn.) said during Senate debate.
Across the Capitol, Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.) called the bill "consumer fraud masquerading as financial reform."
But Clinton said Thursday that the bill "will help the American financial services system play a leading role in propelling our economy into the 21st century." For Wisconsin residents, bankers and analysts foresee little immediate change in the financial services landscape. The legislation could, however, "boost the movement toward convergence" of banks, brokerages and insurance companies, one analyst said. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4196/is_19991105/ai_n10557102
strangely enough? the reasons i was unhappy were NOT for liberal reasons..
as a matter of act? it was just the opposite...
it does put too much power in too few hands, and when they make bad choices? we all pay...
they've always made bad decisions, but now the whole system is even more interdependant...
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Dow up 232 points as I type this.
It would be nice if that would stick for over the weekend.
Posted by rimasco on :
Arthur Cashen just said the volume is not there in this rally
Arthur is good peeps
Posted by rimasco on :
My gut is telling me the feds "band-aid" will not help heal the INFECTION
look out belooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwww!!
Posted by rimasco on :
Nothing to see here folks......... Posted by rimasco on :
Get ready for new 52 week lows.......JMO
Posted by glassman on :
here comes the double bottom...
i wanna know who's in charge of publishing these "faulty" job numbers...
somethin' ain't right when they make mistakes this big..
i generally ignore politicians claims for "tweaking" the economy, positive or negative... i hate it when a prez gets blamed for a bad one and i hate it when one takes credit for a good one...
BUT?
i'm beginning to think this mess we are in right now really is politically manufactured.
after 9-11 they did what they had to... unfortunately the bill is still coming due..
in '02 thru '04 individual State budgets were in severe turmoil. they were running out of gasoline money for cop cars, and many states were not hiring or even cutting employees..
the "housing boom" changed this dramatically...
real estate generates a significant portion of most states revenues...
IMO, the housing boom was manufactured to relieve struggling State revenues...
Posted by retiredat49 on :
Politically manufactured depression...I believe it!!!
Posted by glassman on :
a depression wasn't the goal tho...
the US has always (since 1900 or so) had an attitude of: "deal with today, today. we'll take care of tomorrow when it gets here"
by flooding the country with easy (low interest, low paperwork, low qual, no qual loans) they kept US from falling into a depression after 9-11...
i just saw a report that 1/3 of all US foreclosures are on speculators, not homeowners..
that makes sense... most homeowners aren't gonna take a 3 year adjustable rate mortgage that they know they won't be able to pay after three years.. that's a speculator's "ploy"...
Posted by rimasco on :
Whatever the case is....it looks to me like the SHlTs gonna hit the fan real soon....
Put on your slickers boys....
Posted by retiredat49 on :
It may not have been "the goal"...but it could very well end up being "the result".
quote:Originally posted by glassman: a depression wasn't the goal tho...
Posted by glassman on :
IMO? the fed will give in to the street, cut rates and we'll get runaway inflation... the dollar is going to go weaker no matter what. our trade imbalances, and our debt to income ratio are just too big...
i'm still trying to figger out how China will play this..
i wish they'd go ahead and buy gold, like they should have done three years ago.. i believe that would settle everything down quickly...
Posted by retiredat49 on :
The street already controls the fed...IMO
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by retiredat49: The street already controls the fed...IMO
i agree 99%...
here's the best short explanation i've been able to find: A Repo Example A brief description of Repo
The repo (sale and repurchase agreements) business is not well known to the public. Repo involve the sale of securities (as collateral) and the simultaneous undertaking to repurchase those securities at a later date. The maturity date is either fixed at the outset of the agreement, or extended on a day-to-day basis (open repo). Essentially, a repo simply represents a loan that is backed by investment securities.
Upon expiry of the repo contract, the seller is obliged to repurchase the collateral at the original selling price. In addition, he pays the buyer interest based on the duration of the loan and the principal amount involved.
If the seller were to default on his obligation to repay the money, the purchaser is entitled to sell the pledged securities. Conversely, the seller can use the loaned amount to replace his securities if the buyer fails to return the original collateral.
Both the risk and reward associated with the pledged securities accrue to the seller. He remains the beneficial owner, even though the buyer owns the collateral during the term of the agreement. Should the value of the securities fall during the contract period, the seller incurs the loss. He also bears the risk of default by the company which issued the securities. The buyer's risk is thus negligible, as the seller and the issuer are most unlikely to default simultaneously.
what's unclear is how many are defaulting on the buyback when the underlying security loses 30% of it's value...
the banks don't trust each other not to simply "walk away" withthe basket of cash...
Posted by glassman on :
this might be an(other) underlying reason why the markets have been so frothy lately, the big hedgies have been scrambling to unwind all their derivative trading to get ready for real transparency in their margins
Sept. 30, 2007, is the securities lending community's target date for automating the transmission of stock loan recall messages. Although there is no regulatory mandate to meet this deadline, the firms that borrow and lend stocks have been working together, and with DTCC, to bring everyone on board to dispense with the existing paper-intensive process.
"We're finally coming out of the dark ages," said Irving Klubeck, managing director, Pershing LLC and president of the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association's (SIFMA) Securities Lending Division. "Having an automated, auditable system for managing recalls will strengthen our ability to meet regulatory requirements and expedite the entire recall process, which translates into reduced financial exposure and lower costs.
A stock loan recall message is notification from a bank or broker/dealer that has lent securities to another firm that it is recalling the loan because it needs the position.
Although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires firms to send notices of stock loan recalls, it has not mandated how those notices are sent. As a result, the industry has been making due with timeworn methods. "The last big change in this business was back in the late 1970s, when we moved from delivering recalls by hand to using faxes," noted Klubeck. "Since then, the technology that has automated so many other industry segments has passed us by."
A stock loan recall message is notification from a bank or broker/dealer that has lent securities to another firm that it is recalling the loan because it needs the position.
Although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires firms to send notices of stock loan recalls, it has not mandated how those notices are sent. As a result, the industry has been making due with timeworn methods. "The last big change in this business was back in the late 1970s, when we moved from delivering recalls by hand to using faxes," noted Klubeck. "Since then, the technology that has automated so many other industry segments has passed us by."
by the end of the year we'll know just how many traders out there have been borrowing too much on too little collateral (or no collateral)...
Posted by glassman on :
if you were caught watching your marbles disappear on the last big drop? you might wanna think about how to keep what you got back over the last two weeks...
Posted by retiredat49 on :
One word Glass...CASH I dumped everything today...
Posted by glassman on :
i don't blame you
we went heavy into foreign investments last month betting on the fall of the dollar....
the Canadian Dollar is even with the US dollar right now...
i don't see how the dollar will do anything but go down form here..
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Record close over 14,000.
Now let's not get all cocky this time!
quote:AP Stocks Surge on Rate Cut Hopes Monday October 1, 4:06 pm ET By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer Wall Street Surges After Manufacturing Report Raises Prospects for Another Interest Rate Cut
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street began the fourth quarter with a huge rally Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average above 14,000 and well into record territory for the first time in 2 1/2 months. Stocks were buoyed by a growing belief that the worst of the credit crisis has past.
While the beginning of the new quarter was an incentive for institutional investors to buy, the market was also encouraged that the worst might be over from the summer's credit and stock market turmoil. And new economic data might nudge the Federal Reserve toward another interest rate cut at its Oct. 30-31 meeting.
Investors bought financial shares on the belief that the industry has generally weathered the recent credit market upheaval. Both Citigroup and Switzerland's UBS AG issued third-quarter profit warnings, but indicated the current period might see a return to normal earnings levels.
The market grew more optimistic that the Fed might lower rates to boost the economy after a report showed that manufacturing grew in September at the slowest pace in six months. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity registered at 52.0 in September, below forecasts for a reading of at least 52.5.
"People are getting more confident there is going to be an October rate cut," said John C. Forelli, portfolio manager for Independence Investment. "To some degree, it looks like Citi kitchen-sinked the quarter, and that from here going forward will be calmer. That's underpinning the financials."
Enthusiasm about acquisition activity picked up after Nokia unveiled an $8.1 billion offer to buy navigation-software maker Navteq Corp. The deal was seen as a signal that corporations are feeling comfortable in making big moves despite recent market turbulence.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 191.92, or 1.38 percent, to 14,087.55.
The Dow surpassed its closing record of 14,000.41 set in mid-July, and moved into record territory, rising as high as 14,115.51 and eclipsing its previous intraday high of 14,021.95 set July 17.
Broader market indexes also rose sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.29, or 1.33 percent, to 1,547.04, nearing its all-time trading high of 1,555.90 reached in July. The Nasdaq composite index rose 39.49, or 1.46 percent, to 2,740.99.
Holy melt down! Cant say im shocked. although the market did prove this bear wrong last shake up
Posted by glassman on :
if we end the year up 8% it'll be a good year...
Posted by Relentless. on :
I enjoy watching the idiots on the so-called business news stations scream doom and gloom in the midst of a strong uptrend... then scream reversal on every sporadic upday in a downtrend. I don't hear a one of them talking about the fact we are still in the thirteen thousands...
Posted by glassman on :
well, i still beleive we have some serious fundamental problems to work thru...
the dollar is going to drop...
oil will go up..
the only thing that would bring oil down would be for Iraq to suddenly start producing as much as they used to again, and i don't see that happening....
even if oil production were to increase? the dollar drop would affect how low it goes...
DQR? whatdya think of the governors race here in MS? some pretty good mudslinging huh?
Posted by Relentless. on :
In Alabama now, but I did catch a Barbour commercial today, something about illegal immigration... pretty decent sounding... Man what a problem we have here on the coast. Every seafood restaurant is closing and turning into a Mexican eatery. Yeah the buck is dropping hard... Will for a long time too. There just isn't any real reason for it to reverse.. technical or fundamental... Which I kind of think plays into the stock market continuing it's climb.
Posted by rimasco on :
The markets recent climb is from rate cuts and great earnings from some big boys....who are laying off employees by the thousands and outsourcing
look around you..... does the dow really deserve to be at 12,000 or even 11,000?
The nasd should weather better being that tech is the primary function of alot of the companys traded. And techs basic value is to uhhhhhhh save people money by replacing workers.
JMO
Posted by Relentless. on :
Lower dollar means more exports... Maybe 13,000 plus is justified...
Posted by IWISHIHAD on :
Is that 13+ or 13000+? It might be there(13000+) and stay there but justified? These guys can float that market pretty well just need to get bigger pontoons. Leading up to elections are usually good times for the market, but they better keep finding those pontoons.
Posted by glassman on :
well Rimasco you there? or did you take the rest of the year off...
DOW down 340 with about 15 minutes to go...
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
THIS HAS BEEN GREAT!!
Posted by rimasco on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: well Rimasco you there? or did you take the rest of the year off...
DOW down 340 with about 15 minutes to go...
Ive been really busy with all the volatility. Its so hard to hold these things short. I pretty much gave up and just look for bounces. Unless I see something ideal like CROX.
I shorted BIDU the other day got my ass handed to me.... now look at it
Posted by rimasco on :
My guess is the market will continue to whip around then eventually dive to where it belongs
I think Dow 11k
Nasd is undervalued a little
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
Nasd is undervalued a little, I SAY ALOT,JMO
Posted by rimasco on :
Im being conservative....
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco:
quote:Originally posted by glassman: well Rimasco you there? or did you take the rest of the year off...
DOW down 340 with about 15 minutes to go...
Ive been really busy with all the volatility. Its so hard to hold these things short. I pretty much gave up and just look for bounces. Unless I see something ideal like CROX.
I shorted BIDU the other day got my ass handed to me.... now look at it
dude, unless you are running some serious analytical trading software, you are not likely to end up happy right now.
the reactions i've been seeing are crazy. CROX? cramer said CROX went up cuz of the new SHO rules and then when everybody covered they came in under analysts estimates... who the hell wears those things anyway? ...
take a look at BID for along play tomorrow...
they failed to sell a Van Gogh and the pps tanked?
Sotheby's Morning Art Sale Totals $34.8 Million, Below Estimate November 8, 2007 16:42 EST -- Sotheby's 3 1/2-hour morning sale of Impressionist and modern art totaled $34.8 million today in New York, below the $37.9 million low estimate and down more than a third from $58.7 million at a comparable sale in May. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conews&tkr=BID:US
i guess the middle easterners or the Russkies aren't Van Gogh fans huh? LOL...
Posted by rimasco on :
IMO CROX is a 5 dollar stock in 2 years
[qb]dude, unless you are running some serious analytical trading software, you are not likely to end up happy right now.[qb][qoute]
My brother thought I was crazy 4 months ago when i told him theres programs out there designed to take peoples stock via "sell stops"
thats what all this volitilty is about IMO programs battling other programs....
Im sure we'll here about a few more hedgies getting destroyed for a couple o BILL
Posted by glassman on :
My brother thought I was crazy 4 months ago when i told him theres programs out there designed to take peoples stock via "sell stops"
thats what all this volitilty is about IMO programs battling other programs....
the MM's used to do it, now the hedges are creaming the MM's...
look at the difference in pay, that says it all.
Posted by glassman on :
avg DJI growth year over year is 8%... once we hit that? the games began...
Posted by rimasco on :
That makes sense
Posted by rimasco on :
I remember them saying last year that crude 100 would cripple the economy..... havent heard this again yet?
hmmmmmmmmmmmm?
Posted by glassman on :
it's 4$ gasoline that will do it...
however, the last 5 years of "strong economic growth" has been consumer fed. "consumers" borrowed against their home equity and spent.. just like dubya told them to do...
Press Conference by the President Indian Treaty Room
For Immediate Release Office of the Press Secretary December 20, 2006
The unemployment rate has remained low, at 4.5 percent. A recent report on retail sales shows a strong beginning to the holiday shopping season across the country -- and I encourage you all to go shopping more.
this can be found at the whitehousedotgov...
this was just the last time in a long series of his urgings to spend like there's no tomorrow...
this season? we'll see how much equity is left...
Bush did nothing to mobilize public opinion to accept the sacrifices that war implies — the first thing a leader would do. Tax cuts could go ahead as planned, and energy saving was dismissed out of hand. “Go shopping” was the administration’s message. http://thinkprogress.org/2006/12/20/bush-shopping/
China has a fifty percent savings rate... the US has a NEGATIVE savings rate, and has since '05...
fearless leader has led US down a rabbit hole
Posted by bdgee on :
The Bush family has no worries, whatever comes of the U.S. economy.
They have vast holding outside the country, untouchable by our courts or taxes and they can simply pull up stakes and move. They did that before when the Nazi reputation tainted the family after WWII (quite well deserved, I point out) and they pulled out of New England and set up housekeeping in Texas.
(By the way, claiming to be "in oil" is just a cover for the various Bush family holdings, much of which is tied to financing of the old German Nazi party and manufacturing for them. If you doubt this, do a serious search and see if you can find any instance of any member of the Bush family actually owning any serious part of any oil company or operation that did not loose money. Then look into their eager financing of the Nazi machine and the favors they got for doing it.)
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
Is today the day we see 12,000s again?
Posted by glassman on :
not yet.
the hedge funds are at war. that's what you are seeing. they are trying to decide who is the smartest.
fun to watch as long as you aren't the rat caught in the middle of the pitbull fight
Posted by rimasco on :
I agree, the hedgies are trying to straddle this mess
Posted by rimasco on :
wow, not good.... I didnt fall for that suck job at 3:15 Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
Posted by glassman on :
so imake are you having fun in this market?
i am not doing anything aggressive. i am enjoying the show for now.
if we end the year 8% up i'll be surprised, but i think we'll still end the year up more than 5%.
our gas prices are going up a nickel a day in our area.... IMO? if we hit 4$/gallon national avg? the recession be "on"
Posted by a surfer on :
Just paid 3.19 for regular
Hearing more about short sales on property than ever before.
55% of the local realtors are floundering and won't make it another 6 months.
Recession is in full swing IMO.
Another thing I have noticed is that groceries have easily tacked on an average of 10-20 % in the past year.
At least silver is rallying....
Hold on to your $$$$ folks...
Cash is king,
and silver, real silver that is.... not that paper backed crap.
Posted by glassman on :
i like silver too.
i'm not letting go till it really runs, i'm not thinking about selling before forty or fifty. if China gets to buying gold? we'll see it in year or two...
glad you made it thru the fires OK surf.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman:
quote:Originally posted by rimasco:
quote:Originally posted by glassman: well Rimasco you there? or did you take the rest of the year off...
DOW down 340 with about 15 minutes to go...
Ive been really busy with all the volatility. Its so hard to hold these things short. I pretty much gave up and just look for bounces. Unless I see something ideal like CROX.
I shorted BIDU the other day got my ass handed to me.... now look at it
dude, unless you are running some serious analytical trading software, you are not likely to end up happy right now.
the reactions i've been seeing are crazy. CROX? cramer said CROX went up cuz of the new SHO rules and then when everybody covered they came in under analysts estimates... who the hell wears those things anyway? ...
take a look at BID for along play tomorrow...
they failed to sell a Van Gogh and the pps tanked?
Sotheby's Morning Art Sale Totals $34.8 Million, Below Estimate November 8, 2007 16:42 EST -- Sotheby's 3 1/2-hour morning sale of Impressionist and modern art totaled $34.8 million today in New York, below the $37.9 million low estimate and down more than a third from $58.7 million at a comparable sale in May. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conews&tkr=BID:US
i guess the middle easterners or the Russkies aren't Van Gogh fans huh? LOL...
BID looking good Posted by Highwaychild on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: so imake are you having fun in this market?
i am not doing anything aggressive. i am enjoying the show for now.
if we end the year 8% up I'll be surprised, but i think we'll still end the year up more than 5%.
our gas prices are going up a nickel a day in our area.... IMO? if we hit 4$/gallon national avg? the recession be "on"
I hear it's going to be $4 next summer. Prices just topped an all time high around here, and that was after Katrina hit("George Bush hates back people")...And I haven't heard of any damn hurricane hitting the U.S. this year!
I also hear that they are breaking even at $27 a barrel of oil, and here they are sitting on around $100?!?WTF!
Posted by glassman on :
AND THE Ailing/Watch List Lenders: 11. Countrywide Financial 10. ComUnity Lending 9. Secured Bankers Mortgage Company (SBMC) 8. Delta Financial Corp 7. Meridias Capital 6. Option One 5. Ocwen Loan Servicing 4. Doral Financial Corp. 3. Evergreen Investment/Carnation Bank 2. Coast Financial Holdings, Inc. 1. Residential Capital, LLC*
Posted by ohio_trader on :
within 10 years your loan will most like go through the government, thats the way they want it, absolute control, no competition
wall street journal last week...80% of mortgage lenders form 1 year ago are no longer in business....WOW 80%, can you imagine this drastic change in any other large industry within 1 year
THIS IS GOING TO SEVERELY IMPACT THIS COUNTRY !
and it is not nearly over
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are getting crushed
there will not be as many new homeowners in the future, nor ever again probably in this country!
our dollar is getting worthless, and big business is crumbling ie general motors wrote off $39 billion last week
THIRTY_NINE BILLION DOLLARS- how will they recoup that?
and the midwest like other parts of the country are in ruin!
good job by the federal and state and local governments/and corporations- this country is one flush from going down the shi**er for good
Happy Thanksgiving !
Posted by glassman on :
this mortgage meltdown should not have been such a surprise...
we had FBI mortgage fraud investigations as front-page news in Memphis when i first moved to MS in '04.....
the depth and breadth of it is the real surprise i guess...
it appears they just bundled the mortgages all together without sorting out the risk factors...
note the date on this one:
FBI warns of mortgage fraud 'epidemic' Seeks to head off 'next S&L crisis'
From Terry Frieden CNN Washington Bureau Friday, September 17, 2004 Posted: 5:44 PM EDT (2144 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Rampant fraud in the mortgage industry has increased so sharply that the FBI warned Friday of an "epidemic" of financial crimes which, if not curtailed, could become "the next S&L crisis."
Assistant FBI Director Chris Swecker said the booming mortgage market, fueled by low interest rates and soaring home values, has attracted unscrupulous professionals and criminal groups whose fraudulent activities could cause multibillion-dollar losses to financial institutions.
"It has the potential to be an epidemic," said Swecker, who heads the Criminal Division at FBI headquarters in Washington. "We think we can prevent a problem that could have as much impact as the S&L crisis," he said.
In the 1980s, many Savings and Loans failed because of poor management, risky loans and investments, and in some cases, fraud. Taxpayers were left with a $132 billion tab to cover federal guarantees to S&L customers.
The FBI has dispatched undercover teams across the country in an urgent investigation into dealings by suspect mortgage brokers, appraisers, short-term investors, and loan officers, Swecker, flanked by FBI executives and Justice Department prosecutors, revealed.
In one operation, six individuals were arrested Thursday in Charlotte, charged with bank fraud for their roles in a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud, officials said. The two-year investigation found fraudulent loans that exposed financial institutions and mortgage companies to $130 million in potential losses, they said.
Also Thursday, federal agents in Jacksonville arrested two people and executed seven search warrants in connection with an alleged scheme designed to defraud banks of $22 million, officials said.
The number of open FBI mortgage fraud investigations has increased more than five-fold in the past three years, from 102 probes in 2001 to 533 as of June 30 this year, the FBI said. The potential losses are staggering, and many financial institutions are cooperating with investigators.
Officials noted mortgage industry sources have reported more than 12,000 cases of suspicious activity in the past nine months, three times the number reported in all of 2001.
While the FBI described mortgage-related fraud as a nationwide problem, it said the levels of illegal activity are worse in some locations than in others.
States identified as the top 10 "hot spots" for mortgage fraud are Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, California, Nevada, Utah and Colorado.
"It's bad in Georgia, the Atlanta area," said John Gillies, chief of the FBI's Financial Institutions Fraud Unit. "It was bad in the Charlotte area, but we've had a lot of undercover activity there that's helped push the problem into South Carolina."
quote:Originally posted by glassman: this mortgage meltdown should not have been such a surprise...
we had FBI mortgage fraud investigations as front-page news in Memphis when i first moved to MS in '04.....
the depth and breadth of it is the real surprise i guess...
it appears they just bundled the mortgages all together without sorting out the risk factors...
note the date on this one:
FBI warns of mortgage fraud 'epidemic' Seeks to head off 'next S&L crisis'
From Terry Frieden CNN Washington Bureau Friday, September 17, 2004 Posted: 5:44 PM EDT (2144 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Rampant fraud in the mortgage industry has increased so sharply that the FBI warned Friday of an "epidemic" of financial crimes which, if not curtailed, could become "the next S&L crisis."
Assistant FBI Director Chris Swecker said the booming mortgage market, fueled by low interest rates and soaring home values, has attracted unscrupulous professionals and criminal groups whose fraudulent activities could cause multibillion-dollar losses to financial institutions.
"It has the potential to be an epidemic," said Swecker, who heads the Criminal Division at FBI headquarters in Washington. "We think we can prevent a problem that could have as much impact as the S&L crisis," he said.
In the 1980s, many Savings and Loans failed because of poor management, risky loans and investments, and in some cases, fraud. Taxpayers were left with a $132 billion tab to cover federal guarantees to S&L customers.
The FBI has dispatched undercover teams across the country in an urgent investigation into dealings by suspect mortgage brokers, appraisers, short-term investors, and loan officers, Swecker, flanked by FBI executives and Justice Department prosecutors, revealed.
In one operation, six individuals were arrested Thursday in Charlotte, charged with bank fraud for their roles in a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud, officials said. The two-year investigation found fraudulent loans that exposed financial institutions and mortgage companies to $130 million in potential losses, they said.
Also Thursday, federal agents in Jacksonville arrested two people and executed seven search warrants in connection with an alleged scheme designed to defraud banks of $22 million, officials said.
The number of open FBI mortgage fraud investigations has increased more than five-fold in the past three years, from 102 probes in 2001 to 533 as of June 30 this year, the FBI said. The potential losses are staggering, and many financial institutions are cooperating with investigators.
Officials noted mortgage industry sources have reported more than 12,000 cases of suspicious activity in the past nine months, three times the number reported in all of 2001.
While the FBI described mortgage-related fraud as a nationwide problem, it said the levels of illegal activity are worse in some locations than in others.
States identified as the top 10 "hot spots" for mortgage fraud are Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, California, Nevada, Utah and Colorado.
"It's bad in Georgia, the Atlanta area," said John Gillies, chief of the FBI's Financial Institutions Fraud Unit. "It was bad in the Charlotte area, but we've had a lot of undercover activity there that's helped push the problem into South Carolina."
i hope somebody investigates why the investigators failed to put a stop to it
------------------------------------------------
further proof of its intention, meltdown of the middle class, this didn't happen per chance- and all will pay, even those with great credit and financially responsible, as more homes go into foreclosure all homeowners( values continue to go down) and renters(as rents also will go higher) will lose
in detroit 1 out of every 33 homes is in foreclosure, this has a domino effect in the community that impacts both socio and economically that is devasting, especially to an area of the country that is very fragile to begin with ( ie detroit was rated the most dangerous to live in this past year)....what does that speak as people to allow this erosion and decay to take place and continue throughout this country, my deceased grandparents all born pre 1905 wouldn't believe what has happened in this country the last 25 years if they were still alive
we have many great people, just few great leaders
On this holiday be thankful for the many blessings, but also reflect on the times, and the poor fortunes of many in this country
Happy Thanksgiving
Posted by glassman on :
The two-year investigation found fraudulent loans that exposed financial institutions and mortgage companies to $130 million in potential losses, they said.
the sick part is that the financial institutions that bought those 100 million$ bundles turned them in to 2billion$ margin accounts and then proceeded to trade the crap out of them....
Posted by glassman on :
consumer confidence level is way down....
look out below...
Posted by BooDog on :
Yep. Most of my long range money is already shifted (retirement funds) still buying on the way down for the long range gains but the major capital is protected. I'll be looking to cap major buys beginning in Feb. In the meantime there are some big bottom plays coming. And I should be left holding some nice chips come next spring. Dats my thinking anyway.
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
That's not surprising, why shouldn't it be down?
Not much a person can count on right now. A lot of folks are feeling behind the 8-ball.
Foreclosure numbers up here in Minnesota 2005 - 2700 2006 - 4100 2007 - estimated to be at 12,000 by years end.
They say a good chunk of these homes being foreclosed on were rented out which is hurting the rental market also.
Posted by glassman on :
i wonder if that number leaked out yesterday afternnon?
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: so imake are you having fun in this market?
i am not doing anything aggressive. i am enjoying the show for now.
if we end the year 8% up i'll be surprised, but i think we'll still end the year up more than 5%.
our gas prices are going up a nickel a day in our area.... IMO? if we hit 4$/gallon national avg? the recession be "on"
SORRY GLASS, I MISSED THIS, YES ITS BEEN GREAT FOR DAYTRADERS, AND 12,000 JUST MIGHT NOT BE TO FAR OFF,JMO
Posted by T e x on :
yikes...
good thread
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
two 200 point rallies in a row?
Is that it...is the economy really that little of a factor?
Posted by BooDog on :
quote:Originally posted by The Bigfoot: two 200 point rallies in a row?
Is that it...is the economy really that little of a factor?
these are still "just frothiness" IMO...
Citibank just paid 11% to get about 7.5 billion ($US) from Abu Dhabi... that's 2 points higher than junk bond rate...
the "technical traders" are fully in charge of the market right now, and they have plenty of cash... do you know where they got it from?
the Fed meets next week and lowers the overnight rate again? and their cash (US$) will be worth even less, so they'll have to do something else..
my take on the situation is that the market is doing it's best to avoid confronting the fundamentals for as long as possible...
Posted by BooDog on :
Fundamentals yes. Which ones actually deserve to be where they have been or came from over the last 6 - 7 years. Tic toc. TA better match up with the FA imo.
Posted by glassman on :
Fubndamentlsla:
UBS Writes Down $10 Billion, Singapore Injects Capital
By Reuters | 10 Dec 2007 | 09:53 AM ET
UBS revealed a $10 billion writedown and an emergency injection of funds from Singapore and the Middle East, making it the biggest victim of the U.S. subprime crisis to date among major European banks. http://www.cnbc.com/id/22178101 -------------------------------------------------------------
Washington Mutual Cutting Dividend and Jobs
By JAD MOUAWAD Published: December 11, 2007
Washington Mutual, one of the country’s largest lenders, said yesterday that it would exit the subprime lending business, cut its dividend and eliminate 3,150 jobs.
In an effort to regain liquidity in the face of losses and bad loans next year, the company plans to raise $2.5 billion by selling convertible shares. It will reduce its dividend by nearly three-quarters, to 15 cents a share, from 53 cents. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/business/11lend.html
this chit is is beginning to stink.
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
What do you guys think, are we gonna see another rate cut today?
If so, how much and is it a good thing or a bad thing economy-wise?
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Well, it was a quarter point, and so far, the market is taking it as a bad thing. DOW just dropped about 150 points in 5 minutes.
Posted by bdgee on :
Patience.....
Chunking an ice cube into a bathtub full of boiling water won't make it suddenly come to comforting body temperature, but time can.....
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Well, it was a quarter point, and so far, the market is taking it as a bad thing. DOW just dropped about 150 points in 5 minutes.
up until the jobs report yesterday? everybody was expecting 50 basis points...
the jobs report came in too strong for a full half point...
nothing seems to add up anymore Jo...
i dunno where all the jobs are coming from...
except Xmas part-timers?
the jobs report came in at a "perfect" gain of 94,000 jobs for November - barely beating consensus by being neither too hot nor too cold.
Every day this week, I've regretted not just taking my losses and going all cash.
Looks like today could be another.
Posted by glassman on :
anybody got whiplash this morning?
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
Jimminey- you ain't kidding glass!
Posted by glassman on :
it's hedge funds using software...
fundamentals don't matter to the computers...
garbage in garbage out.
Posted by glassman on :
i think we'll close red or flat today.
Posted by bdgee on :
Quoting Tonto, "What you mean "We", white man"?
Posted by glassman on :
i may be wrong. the fed configured some bailout scheme, i don't have time to read up on it right now..
the fed can't keep appeasing the market or it's gonna be worse in the end. not better.
Posted by BooDog on :
ahhhyup. I agree glass. Rose colored stained glass can only hold up to so many pebbles, sooner or later it'll break imo.
Posted by Propertymanager on :
i think we'll close red or flat today.
I hope so, I'm shorting into all the rallies. Shorted OFG at $14.39 for a swing trade.
Mike
Posted by glassman on :
good luck, the chart looks you can take a quick 5- 7.5% on that...
Posted by glassman on :
well we're almost back to flat..
Citi announcing more layoff's so i still pick the red door.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: so imake are you having fun in this market?
i am not doing anything aggressive. i am enjoying the show for now.
if we end the year 8% up i'll be surprised, but i think we'll still end the year up more than 5%.
our gas prices are going up a nickel a day in our area.... IMO? if we hit 4$/gallon national avg? the recession be "on"
DOW ends year up more than 5%, but less than 8%:
Thanks to a big first-half advance, they managed to finish 2007 with a respectable increase of 6.43 percent — not as large as the 16.29 percent jump in 2006, but a better performance than the modest loss in 2005. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
the NASDAQ did much better, but it's going to do worse next year IMO because consumers are running out of credit....
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
DOW 12,850 Posted by glassman on :
i hear rumors that we will see many more write-downs in Feb too...
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
YEP!! GONNA BE SOME GREAT DAY TRADES,IMO
Posted by IWISHIHAD on :
I say were headed below 12000 in the next few months. Although the Dow has surprised me that it has stayed in this range (13000) for as long as it has.
Some of these guys really are magicians with their money to have kept the market this high with the failing economy.
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
DOW 12,589
Posted by Jo4321 on :
What the heck just happenned? All going along well...lots of green all around...tech sector included...feeling good...until 3:00pm and then BAM! Down 238 pts in an hour.
Looks like the pattern over the past few days to make any money has been to sell in the morning and buy back just before close.
Jo
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
IMAKEMONEY Member
posted January 04, 2008 05:49 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YEP!! GONNA BE SOME GREAT DAY TRADES,IMO
-------------------- EVEN IF YOUR ON THE RIGHT TRACK, YOULL GET RUN OVER IF YOU JUST SIT THERE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posts: 8162 | From: San Diego CA | Registered: Jul 2006 | IP: Logged |
Posted by Jo4321 on :
You are so wise.
Anyhow, I think it is all Bloomberg.com's fault:
quote: 4:10 pm : It was another whipsaw day of trading on Tuesday, and its ending did not please the bulls. The stock market closed with a large loss, at its session lows, on renewed credit and economic concerns.
Stocks started the day modestly higher and drifted upward until renewed credit concerns sent the market sharply lower.
Several factors, all hitting the wires around the same time, fueled the credit concerns. Playing a large role was an unsubstantiated rumor that Countrywide (CFC 5.57, -2.07) is preparing to file bankruptcy as soon as this week, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG.COM
Meanwhile, bond insurers got hit after reports indicated Morgan Stanley cut its bond insurers profit outlook. MBIA (MBI 13.46, -4.16) and Ambac (ABK 19.59, -3.89) shed 22% and 17% respectively.
Moody's downgraded 46 Bear Stearns (BSC 71.32, -4.93) tranches backed by Alt-A Mortgage loans. Moody's also placed National City's (NCC 14.25, -0.94) credit rating under review for possible downgrade.
Stocks then rebounded into positive territory after Countrywide denied the bankruptcy rumors. The positive sentiment was short-lived, however, as statements from AT&T (T 39.13, -1.90) brought economic concerns back to the forefront.
AT&T's CEO said the company is disconnecting more home phone and broadband Internet customers for failing to pay their bills, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG.COM .
The CEO said the company is experiencing "softness" in its broadband and phone line businesses due to slowing economic growth. The news sent the company's shares and the overall stock market sharply lower.
Nine of the ten sectors
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
IMAKE,I think you are being really optimistic.I think the dow will retreat closer to 11,000. Isnt it funny how the many think of the whole market is an indicator on the good or bad on how the few stocks in the dow fair in the marketplace.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: What the heck just happenned? All going along well...lots of green all around...tech sector included...feeling good...until 3:00pm and then BAM! Down 238 pts in an hour.
Looks like the pattern over the past few days to make any money has been to sell in the morning and buy back just before close.
Jo
you'll find out tomorrow when the rest of US peasants get our news..
the hedges are "wired in" ahead of the delay....
Bloomberg is IMO the most reliable financial news group...
* Nicholas Maier, a former employee of Jim Cramer, alleged in his book, Trading with the Enemy (Collins, 2002), that Cramer would feed rumors to Bartiromo intended to affect the value of his positions when Bartiromo repeated them on the air. Time characterizes this as Cramer "gaming" Bartiromo. Cramer denies the accusation.[7]
Citigroup Gains on WSJ Report of Foreign Investment (Update3)
By Chia-Peck Wong
an. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. rose in New York trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that the biggest U.S. bank is seeking as much as $10 billion from foreign investors as mortgage-related losses deepen.
Merrill Lynch & Co., the largest brokerage, also is in talks with investors and may get $3 billion to $4 billion, the Journal said earlier today, without citing any sources. Citigroup has already received about $7.5 billion from Abu Dhabi and Merrill said last month that it's raising as much as $6.2 billion from Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte. and New York-based money manager Davis Selected Advisors LP.
Banks and securities firms in the U.S. and Europe have turned to Asian and Middle Eastern governments for about $34 billion to prop up balance sheets battered by writedowns from the collapse of the U.S. subprime market. New York-based Citigroup and Merrill want to secure additional financing before they report the extent of their fourth-quarter losses next week, the Journal reported.
So what do you guys thinks going to happen here if the fed cuts rates at the end of the month?
Is the market going to take that as good news, or bad news? The last time they did it, it sunk the market, the time before that the market went up. It's hard to tell what the heck will happen.
Jo
Posted by glassman on :
there's an old saying in the market Jo.
the market will always do the most damage to the most people possible....
who knows? i don't know why people think these cash injections are a good thing anyway, some of these co's are about to go under, and some of this may be throwing good money after bad...
what i can't get over is how 10 million$ in bad mortgages ends up equaling 1 billion$ in write-offs.. too much leverage/ margin being used?
Posted by glassman on :
today was interesting... 2% off... and no relief in sight...
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
CALLS AND PUTS!! Posted by Highwaychild on :
It's been pretty good for all those young 401K'ers out there...
Posted by glassman on :
12000 is coming up fast....
Posted by osubucks30 on :
When are we going to hit 10000 again?
Posted by osubucks30 on :
The past year the low for the dow is around 11900 and that was back when the outlook was not as negative so IMO we will go below that but how far down we go is anyones guess.
Posted by Persia on :
Europe getting hammered today.
Posted by Livinonklendathu on :
Dow futures down 514, S&P futures down 60.2.
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by osubucks30: When are we going to hit 10000 again?
8500-9000 bottom.... Posted by osubucks30 on :
Tomorrow is going to be ugly by all indications!!
Posted by osubucks30 on :
These big moves down knock beginners out of the market and some will never return.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Tons of earnings out this week...Bank of America, Wachovia, Dupont, Johnson & Johnson and Apple all scheduled for tomorrow...
AP Business Events for the Coming Week Friday January 18, 6:02 pm ET By The Associated Press Business Events and Economic Reports Scheduled for the Coming Week
Major business events and economic events scheduled for the coming week (some dates are tentative):
TUESDAY, Jan. 22
WASHINGTON -- Treasury bill auction; Senate Finance Committee hearing on economy and a stimulus plan.
HARTFORD, Conn. -- United Technologies Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
INDIANAPOLIS -- WellPoint Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
THURSDAY, Jan. 24
WASHINGTON -- Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m.; National Association of Realtors reports on existing home sales for December, 8:30 a.m.; Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reports on mortgage rates; Senate Budget Committee hearing on economy; Senate Finance Committee hearing on economy.
SEATAC, Wash. -- Alaska Air Group Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
Some markets down 10% in two days!! Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco posted August 10, 2007 11:09 : The fed shoulda kept the marekt under wraps better...then again its all the same. The markets will find there place.
Only problem is I think its place is 1000+.....LOWER
well Rimasco? your crystal ball is pretty darn good...
you still around or did you take all your profits and move to some small Mexican Isalnd where you can live like a King on 40$ a day? Posted by rimasco on :
LOL! No crystal ball here. Just a bleeding ulcer that acts up when it senses CRISIS.
Its tuff to stay short. Im pretty much just standing on the side lines looking for bounces. preservation of capital is key.
I feel its gonna get worse. Gotta wait for the "blood in the streets"
Posted by glassman on :
even with overseas markets going down? we are still doing well with our overseas ETF's
the key is the drop in the dollar.
-over the last two years? low to mid-level quality (hand-maufactured) Venetian art glass has doubled or more here in the US mostly due to the exchange rate-
here's what i see right now:
We (the US) are dumping cash as fast as we can into the economy, which forces the US$ down, a few of the foreign currencies are trying to put more cash into the economy too, which is keeping the US$ from dropping faster.
inflation is coming big time.
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
IMAKEMONEY Member
posted November 27, 2007 07:25 PM --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Originally posted by glassman: so imake are you having fun in this market?
i am not doing anything aggressive. i am enjoying the show for now.
if we end the year 8% up i'll be surprised, but i think we'll still end the year up more than 5%.
our gas prices are going up a nickel a day in our area.... IMO? if we hit 4$/gallon national avg? the recession be "on" --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SORRY GLASS, I MISSED THIS, YES ITS BEEN GREAT FOR DAYTRADERS, AND 12,000 JUST MIGHT NOT BE TO FAR OFF,JMO
-------------------- EVEN IF YOUR ON THE RIGHT TRACK, YOULL GET RUN OVER IF YOU JUST SIT THERE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posts: 8278 | From: San Diego CA | Registered: Jul 2006 | IP: Logged |
Posted by rimasco on :
my system crashed......LOL lucky I was stuck long
Posted by glassman on :
dollar went to almost 105 Yen today.
i wonder how much cash the Japanese had to print to push it back up
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
How low do we go, How low do we go?
DOW is doing the limbo again today.
Do we break 12 this week?
Posted by IWISHIHAD on :
I think some big time investors are loving these swings.(their playing both ends) The market has lost many smaller investors because of fear from the slowing economy and for good reason
This has allowed the bigger investor to control the market even more.
The market should be much lower if the economy really has a lot to do with the market price.
Posted by glassman on :
Im thinkin DOW 10k... unless of course Ron Paul gets elected as an indie!!
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: Im thinkin DOW 10k... unless of course Ron Paul gets elected as an indie!!
10K is quite possible rim, it's really hard to tell how bad this will get now.
Fed to pump $215b into US economy
* March 8, 2008 - 11:26AM * Page 1 of 2
The Federal Reserve moved to add as much as $US200 billion ($215 billion) to the banking system over the next month to offset a deepening credit crisis that may have already pushed the US economy into a recession.
The central bank raised to $US50 billion each from $US30 billion the amount intended for auctions of funds on March 10 and March 24. The Fed also said in a statement in Washington today that it will make $US100 billion available through weekly 28-day repurchase agreements, where the central bank will lend cash in return for assets including mortgage-backed bonds.
this repurchase stuff is where the chit hits the fan...
when they "dump" the bad mortgage paper on the FED? who ends up eating the loss?
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
SHORTERS DREAM!!
Posted by rimasco on :
[qb]this repurchase stuff is where the chit hits the fan...
when they "dump" the bad mortgage paper on the FED? who ends up eating the loss?[QB][QUOTE]
I guess the FED will just have to print more money..... uhhhhh for itself that is?
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: [qb]this repurchase stuff is where the chit hits the fan...
when they "dump" the bad mortgage paper on the FED? who ends up eating the loss?[QB][QUOTE]
I guess the FED will just have to print more money..... uhhhhh for itself that is?
it's beginning to look like a worldwide competition to see who can devalue their own currency fast enough to keep up with US. Posted by rimasco on :
Lehman Brothers is next........
Posted by rimasco on :
Lehman down 38%.... Might be as soon as tomorrow
Posted by glassman on :
the Lehman story is some crazy stuff...
i just found out why the market is really recovering.
the FED has not committed to 28 day repurchase agreements on bad mortgage money after all...
they committed to 6 month repo's on Sunday night
pretty soon? the govt will just buy 'em all and we'll be adding another 3-4 trillion to the natl. debt.
Posted by PCola77 on :
I can afford my house, but can I refinance to a higher rate, take out a bunch of cash from my equity, and then default so the gov't will bail me out? Then I walk away with a wad of cash, right? Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: I can afford my house, but can I refinance to a higher rate, take out a bunch of cash from my equity, and then default so the gov't will bail me out? Then I walk away with a wad of cash, right?
yeah, and the guys/gals that wrote all this bad paper are theives, that get paid in the MILLIONS of $ per year...
"the truth about the world is that crime does pay".
Posted by thinkmoney on :
In our culture, crime pays - Why? Ultimately, the society will self-destruct. It is so striking why We the taxpayers bail out those that lied, cheated, deceived and made the millions and ruined lives of many. Why are they not prosecuted? Why dont they face jail time and financial repay?
Where is justice? Their crime is life in prison for most of them put a country at high risk, ruined lives of millions, deceived and lied and got millions for it and then after their greed, we the taxpayers bail out the cheaters?
Where is justice? They s/b prosecuted and face life imprisonment if applicable for their crimes and their wealth taken from them and given back to taxpayers. Seems like not only do we reward but we also absorb all costs..
I have worked on tons of IT projects - it is amazing at the incompetancy and the millions all get- but in the end- the projects fail where there is incompetency-
Same appies to our country - the deception and greed should not be rewarded - ultimately that is destruction of a society---
So, as a person who wants a future for my kids, what do we do?
Posted by glassman on :
i dunno TM, the thing is? in the economies case? nothing has actually even been fixed. it's been swept under the carpet, next month we get "free money" too...
our country is no longer free market capitalism, i dunno what it is.
in China? the govt steers World Bank loans to companies that default over and over again. the Govt ends up with all the cash, here? the govt ends up with all the debt. it's hard to say how this will all play out.
Posted by thinkmoney on :
It is very hard to know how it all will play out. I agee nothing been fixed but big fallout ultimately-- Putting more credit - debt-into the economy band aids it for a short while but the cause is unadressed. Govt cowards hence the peoples' democracy-
We need more jobs in this country - free trade is great but non-existant- nation states compete and we have to take care of us before the rest of the world...in spiritual gotta love yaself before others...
reasons fo mess:
1. oil - I do think solar, maybe other alternative can get us out of this oil dependency that has wrecked havoc in our lives--- it wont come form govt- those *******s - but from WE the people who will entreprenership for profit--
2.. Next, the mortgage mess- criminalize them - and negoiate for homeowners- not a freebie but reasonable repay mortgage--
3. And, finally - Iraq- why we there ?? oil? I do think if we go solar alot of our problems will be solved - no oil dependency makes no need fo politicl blunders--
How do we get out of Iraq? It will be easier if we are innovative and lessen oil special interest. One way - solar- Then, take our country back -
HOw? I dont know? Hope there is enuff good folks who want it back--
Hey, this mess is worse than a recession- action mecessary and what do we get? Action that exacerbates problems more??
I am not a high politicain or govt officail but putting credit into a creit problem is dumb.
Where is some leadership fo the good of this country? Crime pays so no leadership for what is good for america.
It is sad - but ultimately it is the collective will -
Posted by glassman on :
i'm working on a proposal to send to my Governor on how to kickstart solar. i won't have it ready for at least another two months, but once i do i'll post it so everybody can "spam" their elected representatives...
Posted by Highwaychild on :
I'd be glad to send my crazy a$$ Governor some 'spam', before they have all us eating Spam for dinner every f'n night. But good luck trying to get that Texas Governor to go solar.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Highwaychild: I'd be glad to send my crazy a$$ Governor some 'spam', before they have all us eating Spam for dinner every f'n night. But good luck trying to get that Texas Governor to go solar.
they might if it generated taxable income for everybody, and increased property values to boot...
Posted by thinkmoney on :
Awesome - glass-
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by thinkmoney: Awesome - glass-
it's not really awesome, it's just math.
the hardest part is to "locate" lending to create the programs. the numbers are pretty big, but the larger the programs are? the cheaper the purchase prices should be.
would you be willing to pay income tax on your income from your solar panels? (hint, you have to pay income tax anyway)
Posted by The Bigfoot on :
Glass,
I would really like to see what you come up with.
BF
Posted by glassman on :
the key:
we need to use the student loan model.
the interest (absolutely) must be low (like 3% or less), and must be paid each month,
BUT, it would be tax-free to whoever backs it.
the principal does not NEED to be paid until you sell the house, at which time the value of the solar panels is rolled into the new mortgage...
win-win for everybody.
50 thousand will buy a very powerful solar array that will produce excess juice for almost every household for thirty years... a solar array in that price range will produce all of MY household elctricity in 10 days or less per month. In summer when AC demand is highest? it should still produce at about that rate.
the electricity you USE yourself would not be taxed, but what you sell back to the power co's would generate income for the state to service the bond packages and then some SHOULD still be left over.
once the house sells, and the solar cell loan is paid off? the tax can then be used by the state 100%
Posted by thinkmoney on :
Mathematically, it sounds good - the weakness I see is - another expense for me?
$50 K is alot to borrow fo most americans on top of all their other expenses and debt-
I am interested to know more - I think we should push higher solar cedits to lessen the cost for more Americans---
Posted by glassman on :
yes, 50K is alot to borrow.
BUT?
if we don't go big? it won't work because we need to develop excess capacity to begin to plug cars in to our solar cells, which will increase what we use...
50,000$ at a standard mortgage type calculator at 4% for 15 years is 369$ per month. at 30 years? it is 238.7....
at 3% it drops to 210$/month for 30 yrs and 345$ for 15 yrs. those figures are from standard mortgage tables, they could be lowered with apropriate tweaking, or they could be raised to pay off th loans faster.
basically? your electric bill will GO AWAY, and you will get a check every month or year from the power co., the State would get a check too, based on your check....
so your net cost would be very low...
when you can buy a car that runs 50% off this? you will begin to see real returns. the cars would follow quickly.
the hardest part is to lobby against the "powers that be"...
the oil co's make enough profit now to float the bonds for the whole country, not just certain states, 3% tax free is not a great return, but it's better than the mortgage profits everybody is (not) making right now Posted by glassman on :
another issue about developing excess capacity..
our economy is 25% of the world economy. we also use about 25% of the worlds energy. there is a DIRECT correlation.
if we develop excess capacity? we will find new innovative ways to use it and produce trade goods.
instead of a trade deficit? we can return to a trade surplus at will.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Well, my electric bill now is about $450-$550 a month, so where do I sign up?
quote:Originally posted by glassman: yes, 50K is alot to borrow.
BUT?
if we don't go big? it won't work because we need to develop excess capacity to begin to plug cars in to our solar cells, which will increase what we use...
50,000$ at a standard mortgage type calculator at 4% for 15 years is 369$ per month. at 30 years? it is 238.7....
at 3% it drops to 210$/month for 30 yrs and 345$ for 15 yrs. those figures are from standard mortgage tables, they could be lowered with apropriate tweaking, or they could be raised to pay off th loans faster.
basically? your electric bill will GO AWAY, and you will get a check every month or year from the power co., the State would get a check too, based on your check....
so your net cost would be very low...
when you can buy a car that runs 50% off this? you will begin to see real returns. the cars would follow quickly.
the hardest part is to lobby against the "powers that be"...
the oil co's make enough profit now to float the bonds for the whole country, not just certain states, 3% tax free is not a great return, but it's better than the mortgage profits everybody is (not) making right now
Posted by rimasco on :
quote:Originally posted by rimasco: Lehman Brothers is next........
Looks like the evaded...... FOR NOW
Posted by thinkmoney on :
wow! 450 -550 per month? Do you own a mansion?
I found incadescent bulbs lowered my electric $40+ per month. We also dont light up---
We have for the most part 1 or 2 lights on at night---
Posted by IMAKEMONEY on :
PCola77 Member
Member Rated: posted March 19, 2008 10:52 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, my electric bill now is about $450-$550 a month, so where do I sign up? THOUGHT MINE WAS HIGH AT 250.00
Posted by glassman on :
it that PPL power? they are making pretty good money PPL Corporation (NYSE: PPL) on Friday (2/29) reported revised earnings of $3.35 per share for 2007, reflecting a net fourth-quarter impairment charge of $21 million, or $0.05 per share, related to a reassessment of its natural gas distribution and propane businesses. On January 31, 2008, PPL reported earnings of $3.40 per share for 2007,compared with $2.24 per share a year ago.
PPL Corporation (NYSE: PPL) on Friday (2/22) increased its common stock dividend by 10 percent. With this increase, the dividend will have risen 74 percent over the past five years.
The company has increased its quarterly dividend from $0.305 to $0.335 per share, or from $1.22 to $1.34 per share on an annualized basis. The increased dividend is payable April 1, 2008, to shareowners of record as of March 10, 2008.
This is the company’s 249th consecutive quarterly dividend and the sixth consecutive year that PPL has increased the dividend. Based on the company’s closing stock price Thursday of $47.18 per share, Friday’s dividend increase would improve the current yield on PPL common stock to 2.8 percent.
how you are using that much juice... heat? ther rate schedule they post looks cheaper than mine.. i wish they'd make the rate schedules more straightforward... i pay about 10 cents a KWH but it's a real complicated formula, and the more i use? the less i pay... just like you.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Okay, here's from my last bill:
Residential Heating services: Customer charge = $7.20 Natural gas supply charge: 213 ccf x .95351 = 203.10 Distribution Charge: 213 ccf x .28288 = 60.25 Balancing Service Charge 213 ccf x .04756 = 10.13 Gas cost adjustment charges: 213 ccf x .02459 = 5.24 State tax adjustment = -1.26 Total Gas = $284.66
Electrical Residential Service Customer Charge = $5.18 Generation Charges 1320 kwh x .06490 = 85.67 Transmition charge 1320 kwh x .0055 = 7.26 Distribution charge 1320 kwh x .0476 = 62.83 Transition charge 1320 kwh x .0303 = 40.00 Total Electric = $200.49
Grand Total $485.25
That was one of my cheaper ones this winter.
Were you guys only talking about electric? I forgot our bill is gas/electric combined.
Posted by glassman on :
we have two separate co's for gas and electric...
Atmos (gas) and Entergy (electric) here..
you are paying about 15 cents per KWhr. that's pretty high...
solar panels might be a reasonable alternative for you already.
i noticed PPL is raising their rates soon too (who isn't)...
Posted by glassman on :
when i was in Nebraska? we were only paying 4 cents per KWhr, but that was on '03 now it's gone up to about 6 cents...
RATE SCHEDULES
RESIDENTIAL SERVICE - 01 (Standard) & 03 (with Electric Heating)
AVAILABLE: Within Lincoln, Neb., and the System Service Area.
APPLICABLE: To single family residences and individually metered apartments for all domestic purposes, including water and space heating.
CHARACTER OF SERVICE: Single-phase, 60 Hertz, alternating current, 120/240 volt, 3 wire through a System-owned meter.
BILL: Customer & Facilities Charge + Energy Charge - Summer Conservation Credit (if applicable) + All Riders (if applicable) + applicable Service Fees; based on the RATE in effect and the System's Service Regulations.
BILLING PERIOD: Bills are rendered on the basis of the scheduled meter reading dates or a date agreeable with the System for final readings. Under normal conditions, billing periods typically range from 27 to 35 days.
RATE:
WINTER PERIOD for BILLS rendered in the eight-month period from Oct. 1 through May 31.
*
Customer & Facilities Charge $8.20 per bill Plus, for billing periods less than 27 days, credit of $0.13 per day times the difference between 30 and the actual number of days in the billing period. *
Energy Charge (a) $0.0565 per kilowatt-hour for first 900 kilowatt-hours (KWH) used per billing period. (b) $0.0419 per kilowatt-hour for all kilowatt-hours over 900 used per billing period.
SUMMER PERIOD for BILLS rendered in the four-month period from June 1 through Sept. 30.
*
Customer & Facilities Charge $8.20 per bill Plus, for billing periods less than 27 days, credit of $0.13 per day times the difference between 30 and the actual number of days in the billing period *
Energy Charge $0.0859 per kilowatt-hour for all kilowatt-hours used per BILLING PERIOD. *
Summer Conservation Credit Extended when the Customer's usage during the BILLING PERIOD meets the following condition: Daily Average kWh/Credit - Less than 10.0 kWh per day/$1.50 per bill
I'm in the northeast (near philly). Not sure if it's just my electric company or more likely just more expensive everywhere up here than where you are. I started googling solar stuff yesterday but then went to lunch and forgot to keep looking. Maybe I'll look again today.
Posted by glassman on :
part of the issue with solar is that it's much more efficient the further south you are.
i believe the energy providers are already aware of this and are pricing as carefully as they can to be competitive.
at 44KWhrs per day? you are using alot of juice.
a 100 watt light bulb uses 1 kilowatt every ten hours.
i suppose you have an electric oven and electric water heater and maybe even an ancient chest freezer in your basement.
i had one from 1963 that was still working in 96... that was when i did my first energy inventory... i was paying about 40$ per month to run that thing... it was a real hog...
i did the inventory because i found "stray" electricity in my dog kennel one night. the dog kennel gate arced when when i lifted a latch, if it wasn't really dark i would never have seen it..
even tho it was on a GFC circuit? something was wrong and i was losing electricity through about 800 feet of chain link fence. (it was a nice kennel). somebody had run a screw thru the wire on one of the lights and my electricity was "leaking" right into the ground. that's very uncommon.
a 10 KW solar array will produce on average 5 hours minimum of juice over the course of a year. five hours of 10 KW production gives you 50KW per day on average... the electric co has to buy what you don't use, so on peak production days? your meter turns backwards, and on low production days? your meter runs forward.
that would pay your electric bill and not much more. BUT? you would get paid for the cost when you sell your home.
it's really important to familiarise yourself with the way the power calculations works=, the solar dealers are not any differnt from the car dealers or the mortgage brokers Posted by glassman on :
anybody watching OIL?
the "powers that be" have decided to tighten up margin availability across the commodity board, which is a very good thing IMO..
when oil hits below 90$? that's my sign to move back into the S&P, and the QQQ....
What's more, banks that lend money to trading clients to finance their commodities bets are taking new steps to shore up their cash cushions amid the global credit crunch. Over the past few weeks, many brokerage houses and trade-clearing agents have required or are considering requiring futures traders to post more collateral, or margin, to cover the daily fluctuations in the value of their bets, traders say.
If investors don't have enough cash to meet the margin requirements, they might have to close out some positions to come up with more money -- which could drive prices down further.
Futures exchanges, which often clear, or stand behind, trades between parties, are also raising their margin requirements. The Chicago Board of Trade, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange in the past month have raised minimum margins for wheat futures due to the market's increased volatility.
Yesterday's big drops also showed that profit-taking at these levels is tempting. In the week ended March 12, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds investing in commodities futures and raw-material stocks commanding total assets of $65 billion saw a net outflow of $485 million, the largest weekly drop this year, according to EPFR Global, a research firm tracking global fund flows and asset allocation.
"The biggest risk is when speculators are all lined up on one side," as they are now, says Peter Kordell, director of research at Jigsaw Commodities, a Minneapolis-based commodities broker. "When it comes to an end, it's vicious because everybody is running for the door at the same time."
Thansk for the info. We have an 18-month old house, with all new "energy efficient" appliances. My wife stays home with our two kids though, so I'd expect us to use more than a family that does not have people home all day.
Plus, we've never put any effort into conserving. I leave lights on all the time just out of forgetfulness.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: part of the issue with solar is that it's much more efficient the further south you are.
i believe the energy providers are already aware of this and are pricing as carefully as they can to be competitive.
at 44KWhrs per day? you are using alot of juice.
a 100 watt light bulb uses 1 kilowatt every ten hours.
i suppose you have an electric oven and electric water heater and maybe even an ancient chest freezer in your basement.
i had one from 1963 that was still working in 96... that was when i did my first energy inventory... i was paying about 40$ per month to run that thing... it was a real hog...
i did the inventory because i found "stray" electricity in my dog kennel one night. the dog kennel gate arced when when i lifted a latch, if it wasn't really dark i would never have seen it..
even tho it was on a GFC circuit? something was wrong and i was losing electricity through about 800 feet of chain link fence. (it was a nice kennel). somebody had run a screw thru the wire on one of the lights and my electricity was "leaking" right into the ground. that's very uncommon.
a 10 KW solar array will produce on average 5 hours minimum of juice over the course of a year. five hours of 10 KW production gives you 50KW per day on average... the electric co has to buy what you don't use, so on peak production days? your meter turns backwards, and on low production days? your meter runs forward.
that would pay your electric bill and not much more. BUT? you would get paid for the cost when you sell your home.
it's really important to familiarise yourself with the way the power calculations works=, the solar dealers are not any differnt from the car dealers or the mortgage brokers
Posted by glassman on :
maybe this is why margin requirements got stricter?
UPDATE 1-China buyer defaults on US soy as CBOT slumps -trade Wed Mar 19, 2008 11:30pm EDT
HONG KONG, March 20 (Reuters) - Word that a Chinese buyer had defaulted on the purchase of a U.S. soy cargo has stoked concerns that more defaults may occur, as international prices of oilseeds and vegetable oils slide from record highs early this month.
Traders said the default involved a buyer in the northern province of Shandong, but they declined to provide further details.
There also had been defaults of one or two cargoes of soyoil from Argentine, and quite a few on palm oils since the buyers could not afford to pay cancellation fees of more than $200 a tonne following the slump in futures, they said.
"There has been a default on an expensive soy by a small player in Shandong. This has been confirmed," said a senior trader at an international house.
-Stocks Surge to Start Q2; Dow Soars Almost 400 Pts
-Celent: 200,000 US Banking Jobs at Risk
-Home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month.
-Ford, Toyota US Sales Down in March
-UBS Will Write Down $19 Billion
-Wall Street Castles Made of Sand
Posted by glassman on :
rumor is a big hedge fund is being liquidated today...
Posted by CashCowMoo on :
good ol boy posted this on another board....and I find this to be very true.
"What has proven to benefit the stock market is a Democratic President with a Republican Congress. What is also quite effective is a Republican President and a Democratic Congress (just not the current lame duck Congress). Government Gridlock, unfortunately, works best for our economy. "
Posted by glassman on :
closed almost 350 down....
Posted by glassman on :
Dow is only down about 225 after all of this bad news?
IMO? that's not a good thing...
we are not finding bottom, so we'll most likely be sagging for a long time to come....
i suppose there are alot of people that are smart enough not to overreact and dump in panic... they'll just look for a better day to do it... Posted by Pagan on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: Dow is only down about 225 after all of this bad news?
IMO? that's not a good thing...
we are not finding bottom, so we'll most likely be sagging for a long time to come....
i suppose there are alot of people that are smart enough not to overreact and dump in panic... they'll just look for a better day to do it...
Well it's down about 400 pts right now. So maybe there is still hope for that bottom glass.
Posted by glassman on :
Well it's down about 400 pts right now. So maybe there is still hope for that bottom glass.
woohoo! sheesh.. the Fed injection finally sank in...
oil below 95 is good...
i'm looking for 80$ and then the DOW should bottom soon after... all IMO, of course...
Posted by Pagan on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: Well it's down about 400 pts right now. So maybe there is still hope for that bottom glass.
woohoo! sheesh.. the Fed injection finally sank in...
oil below 95 is good...
i'm looking for 80$ and then the DOW should bottom soon after... all IMO, of course...
Dow ended up down over 500pts today. I think that's an appropriate drop for the news that came out. I expect a small bounce tomorrow. Bargain hunters should cause a small bounce IMO.
Posted by BooDog on :
The Real State of the US Economy Henry Paulson has lost the control over US finance
By William F. Engdahl
Global Research, August 2, 2008
You guys may have already seen this.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted posted July 27, 2007 17:29 by rimasco: I seen this maybe 4 times over the last 10 years
I dont consider the market "healthy" when its overvauled. I think the DJI belongs between 10 and 11k.
I think the NASD is only slightly overvalued by maybe 4%
ding ding ding, we have a winner...
Posted by Propertymanager on :
Say that again when the DOW hits 7,700! The only question in my mind is whether that DOW can hold 7,700.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Propertymanager: Say that again when the DOW hits 7,700! The only question in my mind is whether that DOW can hold 7,700.
you're hilarious pm. he didn't call that halfway down, if you reread this thread you'll find he called that over a year ago between the double top of the market. he called it based on people buying at to high a PE ratio.
if you read more? you'll find that i called the second top and bailed entirely from US "investment" stock market. as did several others here. it wasn't a crystal ball or voodoo. double tops are standard due to technical trading practices...
i did hold my accounts that are directly with utility co's where i do dividend re-investment because they buy more stock when prices are low...
i didn't expect the market to go this low, and i have no number in mind, what i am looking for is oil below 80$, and as things get worse? i may revise that number even lower. i picked 80$ LAST YEAR when it was still going up based on technical data from the oil co's themselves.
your 7700 guess is just that, a number that sounds right to you. there's not reason to pick any number at this point...
Posted by Propertymanager on :
No, the 7,700 is not a guess. For someone that's supposed to be a stock market investor, you don't seem to know much about history. 7,700 was about the low from the dot-com bust and in my opinion that low was never properly re-tested. Subsequent to that time, the stock market has gone up largely as a result in the real estate bubble, which I predicted would collapse a full two years before it happened. That is widely documented on the real estate boards on which I participate.
This is not brain surgery, it's all common sense. Bubbles ALWAYS collapse. Fiat currencies always collapse. We've now had 3 central banks in this country and all have been failures. The country is broke and getting deeper in debt all the time. We MUST have a financial collapse (severe DEPRESSION) to get things straigtened up. That may be coming now or it may occur in the near future. After the depression, we will no longer have all these silly entitlements and we will move into a period of rebuilding that will last decades!!!
You brought up oil prices. If this depression progresses, oil won't be at $80 per barrel - try $30 or even $20 (supply and demand). However, once there is a recovery, global demand will quickly overcome supply and we'll be right back at record prices.
Posted by glassman on :
No, the 7,700 is not a guess. For someone that's supposed to be a stock market investor, you don't seem to know much about history.
you haven't been reading much here then.
so you're calling 7700 because of the triple bottom, that you claim was never tested, LOL, do you have a sidekick named larry or curly?
BTW? that's called a head and shoulders bottom reversal... by definition that's twice tested, or tested and confirmed depending on your semantic preference....
since you are so prescient, why don't you go ahead and tell me now if the depression will progress?
i do agree that the housing bubble was inevitable, but only because wages failed to increase along withe the cost of homeownership.
all you had to do to determine that was look for the relationship between median home price and median household income...
tell me how many houses we overbuilt, then you'll know how bad it will get..
as for 80$ per barrel? like i said? that was a technical indicator from last year. anything over 80 was speckelashun.. shall i dig up your statements critisizing me for stating that as the price went to 140?
80 only brings us to the high end of a realistic supply demand price based on the strength of the economy and an ability to return to growth...
Posted by Propertymanager on :
The good news here is that we don't need to argue about it. You're saying 10,000 to 11,000 for the low on the DOW and I'm saying 7,700. In fact, if I get a 1,000 point range, I'll say 6,700 to 7,700. Now, we'll just stay tuned and see who's right!
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Propertymanager: The good news here is that we don't need to argue about it. You're saying 10,000 to 11,000 for the low on the DOW and I'm saying 7,700. In fact, if I get a 1,000 point range, I'll say 6,700 to 7,700. Now, we'll just stay tuned and see who's right!
no i'm not. i didn't say anything of the sort.
what is so amusing about this is that when Rimasco said the market should be at 10 to 11, (last year) the market had just peaked at 14,000 and very few people including me thought it would go that low. i mean i knew fundamentals were bad, but i didn't know how bad, and i can tell you that very few people did... i believe they are worse now than they were then, but nobody knows how bad they are, even the BEST of the best don't know.
now YOU are picking a number off the chart has no other meaning than the last low, technical indicators don't wok that way.. you have to go back to several deep lows and put a support/resistance trend line on them...
but please, don't let me interrupt your guesses they are entertaining...
Posted by bdgee on :
glass likes arguing with fence posts.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by bdgee: glass likes arguing with fence posts.
LOL, i thought i was arguing with the bird on the fencepost, my mistake:
Posted by bdgee on :
Hmmmmmm?????.....a gooney bird...
Posted by Propertymanager on :
Don't start backpeddling now. I am (and have been) predicting 7,700 and we'll see who is right! I can see that you don't really understand technical analysis. Those points on the graph represent psychology. The 7,700 point was the last significant bottom that occurred during a crisis. That's why I believe that the near term bottom is likely to be at that point.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Propertymanager: Don't start backpeddling now. I am (and have been) predicting 7,700 and we'll see who is right! I can see that you don't really understand technical analysis. Those points on the graph represent psychology. The 7,700 point was the last significant bottom that occurred during a crisis. That's why I believe that the near term bottom is likely to be at that point.
show me where i stated it then...
it's all right here.. i never said this was the bottom.
i simply questioned your ability to predict the market.
since every single Investment Bank failed or converted to a commercial bank in the last months? even they didn't predict this, or they'd still be in business.
if you knew anything about charting you'd know that we have already broken below the support line.
and picking that number "just because" it's the old low is funny... as is your claim that it never tested the low...
as for when i buy back in? i'll do that in response to the market itself, not based on some arbitray number picked out of the air..
the DJIA doesn't even have the same co's it did when it set that low...
I can see that you don't really understand technical analysis. Those points on the graph represent psychology. The 7,700 point was the last significant bottom that occurred during a crisis.
you just made it clear that you don't even know what technical analysis is Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: if you were caught watching your marbles disappear on the last big drop? you might wanna think about how to keep what you got back over the last two weeks...
bump. Member
Icon 1 posted September 20, 2007 14:27 Profile for glassman Send New Private Message Edit/Delete Post Reply With Quote
this was all fundamentals baby. you can go back now and look at the charts and tell me all the reasons you would have bailed too.
but I DID! and i posted as much. sure i only expected a 20-25% drop, but Fundamnetals got worse....
ignore fundamnetals and you are tnothing but a stooge for the people who OWN th emarkets
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