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Author Topic: Global Warming Myth
glassman
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here:
When Pablo Picasso visited the newly-discovered Lascaux caves, in the Dordogne, in 1940, he emerged from them saying of modern art, "We have discovered nothing".


Reconsider theories'

It found the Chauvet drawings to be between 29,700 and 32,400 years old. This is about 10,000 years older than comparable cave art found in the Lascaux caves that are around 17,000 years old.


According to Helene Valladas the research shows that ancient man was just as skilled at art as the humans who followed 13,000 years later.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1577421.stm

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bdgee
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"Apparently you can't read". Seems to be your main "argument".


You maybe need to look up usages of that word "argument" too. That three is bigger than two is a fact, not an argument. An argumant to establish that fact is that, in order to consider the sizes of two and three it is necessary only to note that adding one to two yields three and adding to a number grants a bigger number, by definition.

No, it isn't an argument, but it is a fact, demonstrated as such by your repeated misrepresentations (particularly of written things) of what others have said and done......maybe even one worhty of being named a postulate.

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glassman
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reading? hmmm... i suspect reading and writing started with animal tracks....

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Gordon Bennett
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Nuclear power. Now THERE'S a good idea. Can we bury the waste in your backyard, OIL DOG?


quote:
Originally posted by OILDOG:
Thanks to the enviro-cons and the nuclear protests, nuclear power was killed in this country.



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OILDOG
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The Europeans,and just about everybody else is already nuclear in a big way. What are THEY doing with their waste? We are almost a non-nuclear...uh power? Whats left? Coal oil and natural gas fired power plants. Rrreeeaaalllll smart! Solar? How many thousands of square miles covered in solar panels do you want? Of course, it'll be MY back yard,fly-over-country,wont it. NIMBY. Best place for wind is near/offshore. Again, NIMBY.
Lets just dump the nuke waste into a subduction zone off the California coast. It'll be gone in oh a few million years. heh Problem solved.

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OILDOG
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Heres some sunspot stuff:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/fig3a.jpg


Good chart,and:"According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago."
Beginning of the end of THAT Ice Age?

Abstract: From http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/solanki2004.html Direct observations of sunspot numbers are available for the past four centuries, but longer time series are required, for example, for the identification of a possible solar influence on climate and for testing models of the solar dynamo. Here we report a reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past 11,400 years, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. We combine physics-based models for each of the processes connecting the radiocarbon concentration with sunspot number. According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode. Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.


1-3-2007
ABSTRACT: The "solar constant" is, in fact, not constant. Recent satellite observations have found that the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), the amount of solar radiation received at the top of the Earth's atmosphere, does vary - see the graph for the results from six satellites (ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_IRRADIANCE/IRRAD97.PDF). "The variations on solar rotational and active region time scales are clearly seen. The large, short-term decreases are caused by the TSI blocking effect of sunspots in magnetically active regions as they rotate through our view from Earth. The peaks of TSI preceding and following these sunpot "dips" are caused by the faculae of solar active regions whose larger areal extent causes them to be seen first as the region rotates onto our side of the sun and last as they rotate over the opposite solar limb." [Excerpted from the UARS descriptive text] The TSI provides the energy that determines the Earth's climate. Variations of the total solar irradiance (solar constant) have become an important new tool for studying the sun since the deployment of a new generation of precise solar flight instrumentation, such as the ACRIM I satellite experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) in 1980. The study of variations of the spectral irradiance observed in the EUV also has developed rapidly. The largest variations of the total irradiance occur on time scales of a day to several weeks and are caused by solar active regions. Efforts to model the radiative effects of active regions are proceeding and the first round of results from these have appeared in literature. Disagreements have quickly surfaced in this new field and a topical workshop was convened at the California Institute of Technology in June 1983, to provide both formal and informal opportunities for dialog between those actively working in this area. The papers resulting from this workshop are collected in the report by LaBonte et al. (1984). NGDC Boulder holds the SMM satellite irradiance data for February 1980 to May 1989 and the Nimbus data for November 1978 to the present. Also available are the Hoyt and Eddy model data for the period 1974 to 1981. Early data by Abbott, Smithsonian Institution, from many locations worldwide covering the period 1902 to 1962 are available also. PURPOSE: To provide long-term scientific data stewardship for the Nation's geophysical data, ensuring quality, integrity, and accessibility. SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION: This archive contains data from: Composite Total Solar Irradiance database 1978-present, compiled by C. Frohlich and J. Lean ACRIM Composite TSI Time Series 1978-present, compiled by R. Willson SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) 2003 - present, compiled by G. Rottman Total Solar Irradiance
Goddard Space Flight Center:

. Hypothesized Climate Forcing Time Series for the Last 500 Years [NOAA_NGDC_PALEO_CLIMATEFORCING]

Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific over the Past 1000 Years [NOAA_NCDC_PALEO_2005-035]

Seems El Nino is influenced by volcanic and solar forcing, hence the "Climate".
Much more available at NOAA and Goddard.

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OILDOG
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Hmmm. Thought it would have "displayed" the chart. How did you do that turbokid? Do I need to go thru an image storage site?

Well,look for yerself. Kinda looks like the "hockeystick" chart.

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glassman
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you have to pull the location of th echart from the web page, and post it between [img] [/img]

i use mozzilla to get the location of the pix by right clicking...

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glassman
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 -

i see a possible problem here: increased solar activity ALONG with our increasing output of CO2 may in fact be double jeopardy?

that highlighted area? seem to correspond to a situation called the Storegga slide...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide

which may have caused a large amount of methane hydrate to be released as methane gas and methane is even worse than CO2...

it also seems to correspond with when the geologist THINK the rain damage to the Sphynx occurred...

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OILDOG
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Good stuff. Ive never heard of the Storegga Slide. It does seem to correlate pretty close.

Double jeopardy? Maybe triple? Several sources seem to think volcanic & solar forcing most important. We are in an "unusual" Solar Max, and increasing volcanism in the Pacific basin. Warming the ocean,from below, could be at least as important as atmospheric. And happen faster. Do you heat a pan of water on the kitchen stove, or... raise the temp of the kitchen?

Appreciate posting the chart. Better than a "link"

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OILDOG
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 -

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OILDOG
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hmmmm. What did I do wrong?

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glassman
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no spaces allowed between the URL and the commands..

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OILDOG
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ddaaaannnnggg! Finicky little bugger isn't it? Edited it 3 times. heh. Thought it needed caps.
tnx Glass.

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OILDOG
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Metonic cycle
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The Metonic cycle or Enneadecaeteris in astronomy and calendar studies is a particular approximate common multiple of the year (specifically, the seasonal i.e. tropical year) and the synodic month. Nineteen tropical years differ from 235 synodic months by about 2 hours. The Metonic cycle's error is one full day every 219 years, or 12.4 parts per million.

19 tropical years = 6939.602 days
235 synodic months = 6939.688 days
It is helpful to recognize that this is an approximation of reality. The period of the Moon's orbit around the Earth and the Earth's orbit around the Sun (ignoring also exact definition of the year) are independent and have no known physical resonance. Examples of a real harmonic lock would be Mercury, with its 3:2 spin-orbit resonance or other orbital resonance.

I'm banging into stuff I've never heard of. So, it has to do with the Moon, and 19 tropical years is purty close to the 18.6 yr high sea level cycle that "gets" some of the South Pacific islands like Vanuatu(sp/).
Also read that most of the volcanic islands are sinking do to cooling of the volcanic material that formed them,after they move off the "hotspot" that formed them.
And,kinetic waves,from the El Nino source near Indonesia,take 12-18 months to travel across the Pacific,cross South America, into the Atlantic to influence the Hurricane "womb".
Gets curiouser and curiouser. [Razz]

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by OILDOG:
ddaaaannnnggg! Finicky little bugger isn't it? Edited it 3 times. heh. Thought it needed caps.
tnx Glass.

that's why i never really got into programming... took ENES101 and had to write simple fortran programs and went crazy trying to debug all my typos.. of course i was already pretty crazy anyway, so i maybe just needed to be a litle more patience.. ( i learned a little more patience ten years later [Big Grin] )

this was back when you still entered data with a punchcard...
windws made editing a lot easier.. but as you probably noticed? i don't try very hard to correct my typos even now... i figger what the hey, you usually know what i'm trying to say anyway [Razz] ...

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turbokid
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Last Year in Europe:
Records shatter as arctic weather grips Europe
Scores reported dead due to killer cold; utilities stretched to limit
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10994127

Killer Cold Keeps Europe in Grip, Claims More Lives
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,...866801,00.html

This year:
North India continues to shiver under severe cold
Amritsar, Jan 10 (ANI): Cold wave continues to grip northern India with the temperature dipping further.
http://www.dailyindia.com/show/10182...er-severe-cold

Delhi schools to remain closed till Saturday as cold wave continues
http://www.dailyindia.com/show/10143...wave-continues

Cold snap kills 110 in Bangladesh
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2...ent_778627.htm

A cold front from western Siberia will cause temperatures to drop between six and 14 degrees Celsius in central and east China over the next four to five ...
http://english.people.com.cn/200612/...25_335739.html
remember last years stoms in the northeast?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10788453/
cold threatens crops in california

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0 &date=2007-01-14_21:42&month=1&year=2007

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0 &date=2007-01-11_21:10&month=1&year=2007

other areas and canada
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/canada-index-news.asp?partner=accuweather&postalcode =

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Herbert Hoover 1930

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Gordon Bennett
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'Global climate change' is a better term than 'global warming,' as some places are actually becoming colder than normal, (see above for examples).

Those that don't cherry-pick the data to suit their own agenda, however, will find ample proof of a dangerous average warming trend.

(Of course, this is already known by anyone who bothers to do the two minutes of research necessary.)

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- Benjamin Franklin

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turbokid
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i found a pretty interesting website that tells of a very large amount of volcanic activity in the oceans leading to warming oceans and increased precipitation.. like the record snowfalls in the west this year and the east last year.
heres some quotes from it..
" June 8, 2004 – For the first time ever, scientists using a camera-equipped submarine have been able to witness an undersea volcano during an eruptive episode.

Exploring the ocean floor in an area known as the Mariana Trench, the researchers “found bubbles of liquid carbon dioxide being released into the sea, enlarging up to a thousand times and turning to gas as they drifted upward.”
-----
"March 14, 2005 - Hundreds of underwater volcanoes are erupting all over the world, especially around the Ring of Fire, reports the India Daily.

Underwater volcanoes are erupting in Australia, Greece, New Zealand and many other countries including the American Northwest, which is experiencing an unprecedented level of underwater volcanism. Andaman Nicobar Island is experiencing underwater volcanism in both the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal .

Tectonic movements have gone up by several folds in the last nine months, say geologists, so much so that they don’t have enough monitoring mechanisms to keep track"
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20 April 2005 - New evidence confirms that sea levels have risen and fallen much more quickly and frequently than previously believed. A new method of dating dead corals reveals a long record of repeated rises and drops in sea level of 6 to 30 meters over just thousands of years.

That's too fast to be explained by regular shifts in the Earth's orbit that are usually considered responsible for the ice ages, as well as the loss or gain of water from the oceans"
-----

12 Dec 05 - An enormous hydrothermal "megaplume" found in the Indian
Ocean serves as a dramatic reminder that underwater volcanoes likely play
an important role in shaping Earth's ocean systems, scientists report.

The plume, which stretches some 43.5 miles (70 kilometers) long, appears to
be active on a previously unseen scale.

"This thing is at least 10 times—or possibly 20 times—bigger than anything of its kind that's been seen before," said Bramley Murton of the British National Oceanography Centre.

Scientists reported the finding last week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco . Researchers also announced newly discovered deep-sea hydrothermal fields in the Arctic Ocean and the south Atlantic .

The appearance of hydrothermal vents around the world suggests that they are a far more common part of the ocean system than once believed and could be a major influence on circulation patterns and ocean chemistry. (read: gulf stream)

"I'd be surprised if in the next five years we didn't experience a mini-revolution in terms of finding these [fields] in places where they are not supposed to exist," said geophysicist Robert Reves-Sohn of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Hydrothermal vents are volcanic hotspots that emit gasses(c02 and mineral-enriched water as hot as 760°F (400°C).

Megaplumes like the one found in the Indian Ocean are probably caused by undersea volcanic eruptions, though scientists aren't yet certain.

"Once formed they can possibly hang around for years," Murton said. The heat from such events could have a dramatic effect on ocean circulation, which plays a role in determining Earth's climate.

"The energy content is an order of magnitude greater [than ordinary plumes], and the thermal power may be many orders of magnitude greater," Murton said.

"A normal hydrothermal vent might produce something like 500 megawatts, while this is producing 100,000 megawatts. It's like an atom bomb down there.”
--------

Hydrothermal vents pumping 500-degree water into Arctic Ocean
– Aug 20, 2005 - Researchers have discovered the northernmost hydrothermal
vents in the world along the Mohns Ridge in the Arctic Ocean . "I've seen a lot of
hydrothermal systems all over the world's oceans," said Adam Schultz, a
geophysicist from Oregon State University ’s College of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Sciences," and these Arctic fields are spectacular."

"We found two large high-temperature fields and as we explored them, we would
come upon a large mound of chimneys with superheated water jetting out of them,"
Schultz said. "Then in the distance, we'd see another mound and then beyond that,
another one, and so on." Temperatures in one field reached as high as 260 degrees C (500F). Temperatures may have approached 300C (572F) in the second field. "

The chimneys were so dense that it was difficult in some areas to get the ROV
(remotely operated vehicle) in there," Pedersen said. "In fact, we got the ROV cable stuck on one of them. It almost melted." In fact, the thermometer did melt.

The vents had been superheated sufficiently to have boiled - even at the enormous
pressures of the deep seafloor. "This is typical of seawater that has encountered hot magma at depth beneath the seafloor, then vents out through smoker chimneys," Schultz pointed out. The vent fields were discovered at depths of 500 to 700 meters.

this is a relativily interesting theory, and seems to coincide with some other aspects of ice ages previously discussed
like ocean tempuratures and ocean levels rising at the same points in time as c02 and air temps increase.
by looking at this graph..
 -
and comparing it to this one..
 -

seems reasonable.. and would certainly explain the previous fluctuations in temps in both the air and seas before the industrial revolution..

heres the site..
http://www.iceagenow.com/Ocean_Warming.htm

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OILDOG
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Good site, Turbo. Interesting stuff.

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OILDOG
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A must read:
SOLAR DATABASES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE MODELS
by
H.E. Coffey, E.H. Erwin and C.D. Hanchett
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division
NOAA NESDIS National Geophysical Data Center
325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABSTRACT

The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is compiling a comprehensive solar database for use in global change models. Solar radiation drives the weather machine. Variations in the Sun's radiative output impact the Earth's climate. The NOAA Climate Analysis Center currently uses solar cycle data in their U.S. seasonal winter forecasts. Spacecraft observations show the Sun's output varied by 0.1% during the past 11-year solar activity cycle, producing a climate forcing of 0.24 W/m2. Climate forcing by increasing greenhouse gases from 1980 to 1986 was about 0.25 W/m2. Global change models need to discern between variations caused by anthropogenic and natural occurrences to provide a sound scientific basis for policy making on global change issues. The NGDC archives are part of a cross-disciplinary effort within NOAA to link observed changes on the Sun with terrestrial climate. To contact the NGDC on-line services, use the following addresses on the Geophysical On-Line Data (GOLD) system:
FTP access: ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov;
Gopher: -- no longer available>;
World Wide Web: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov,
and to reach the bulletin board (no longer available).


"Solar radiation drives the weather machine. Variations in the Sun's radiative output impact the Earth's climate."
Sho nuff!!!

Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
Nature, Vol. 431, No. 7012, pp. 1084 - 1087, 28 October 2004.

 -

Smithsonians site on volcanism says there may be as many as 1 million volcanoes in the Earths oceans. Imagine that! And "recent" discoveries under the Arctic are "spectacular". They were surprised to find them that far North! Why? Antarctica has volcanoes,on and off shore.

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bdgee
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Excelent data there to prove that we can seriously decrease our needs to use petroleum and coal for energy production if we will just get over the myth thaat fossil fuel is necessary.

Indeed, with similar data that is available for wind energy, it can be shown we can completely convert our use of petroleum to the far more emportant uses of making plastics and composits.

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glassman
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thermal vents are also "microclimates" for unusual life forms...

When it comes to deep-sea worms, some like it hot
Last Updated: Thursday, April 13, 2006 | 2:44 PM ET
CBC News

Biologists have found deep-sea worms that prefer to live in water at 50 C, the highest temperature preference ever recorded in an animal.

 -
A thermal vent chimney, about 35 centimetres tall, at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean is surrounded by white bacterial mats and the worms feeding on them. The worms' orange, star-shaped gills can be seen. (Photo courtesy of W. Chadwick/National Undersea Research Program and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute)
http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2006/04/13/hot-water-worm-20060413.html

the microclimates created around them offer evolutionary biologists interesting concepts to ponder ...
there are many that believe hydrothermal vents more closely resemble the environment that life on earth would have encountered/endured when it first appeared here.

Researchers find photosynthesis deep within ocean

Discovery of green sulfur bacteria living near hydrothermal vents has major implications for where photosynthesis happens and where life may reside

A team of researchers, including a photosynthesis expert from ASU, has found evidence of photosynthesis taking place deep within the Pacific Ocean. The team found a bacterium that is the first photosynthetic organism that doesn’t live off sunlight but from the dim light coming from hydrothermal vents nearly 2,400 meters (7,875 feet) deep in the ocean.

http://www.asu.edu/feature/includes/summer05/readmore/photosyn.html

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OILDOG
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quote:
Originally posted by bdgee:
Excelent data there to prove that we can seriously decrease our needs to use petroleum and coal for energy production if we will just get over the myth thaat fossil fuel is necessary.

Indeed, with similar data that is available for wind energy, it can be shown we can completely convert our use of petroleum to the far more emportant uses of making plastics and composits.

Yip,we'll jist replace it with the myth that solar and wind can "get er done". Can't dam rivers for hydroelectric or build nuclear plants. oh oh,I know,I know. CCCOOOAAAAALLLL!
(Oh,fergot,cold fusion. Yea,thats the ticket!)

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It takes a lot of attaboys to make up for an aww chit

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The Bigfoot
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Don't need hydroelectric dams, though that could be used in the mix if built responsibly. (Wouldn't want to build em irresponsibly anyway as siltation has been proven to kill profitability on poorly built dams.)

Don't need the nuk either. Amazing discovery and should be experimented on for use on the space station and proposed lunar site. Don't need it or want it terrestrially meself.

Personally I wish my country would do what every financial advisor on earth would tell you to do. Diversify!

Solar can't get er done (yet)
Wind can't get er done.
Biomass can't get er done. (yet)
Fuel Cells can't get er done.
Ethanol and Bio diesel can't get er done.

Add em all together though and... it gets done.

P.S. I don't know enough yet to really have an opinion but I am as of yet not convinced clean coal tech. is really as good as they say it is.

P.P.S. Good DD on finding all the volcanism stuff Turbo.

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glassman
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diversification might lead to real free market competition. the oil co's don't want that, neither does Cheney or Bush [Roll Eyes]

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bond006
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Of course diversification would lead to market competion and more jobs and a healthier country.

But the oil companies would fight it why do you think Regan took the solar panels off the White House oil companies gave him his orders

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turbokid
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quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:


P.P.S. Good DD on finding all the volcanism stuff Turbo.

Thanks buddy.
i was actually surprised by what i found about the underwater stuff. interestingly, on that website i posted above it shows an arial view of a volcano spewing up through a glacier!

 -

also, i agree with the combo of alternative energy you spoke of.
and this is a great idea bdgee posted earlier
http://www.allstocks.com/stockmessageboard/ubb/ultimatebb.php/ubb/get_topic/f/14 /t/002956.html

combine that with this
http://www.acfnewsource.org/science/solar_film.html
on every building in major cities that would put a huge frowny face on the oil tycoons.. eh.. [Smile]

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Herbert Hoover 1930

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bdgee
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Solar panels cost about 1/3 what they did 20 years ago and for the same area, produce more usable power.

Wind generated power is already competing with fossil fuel produced power in many locations and. like solar power, gets cheaper and cheaper and more efficient with time and experience.

I see no reason not to tap the thermal energies that lie just under the surgace around Yellowstone and that is not the only location on the continent that has such potential not far below the surface. (Iceland has already just about perfected this technique.)

The Dutch have done wonders by capturing tidal energies and we have many many more locations on our shores that would be suitable for the technology they have designed.

Why stop with just constructing houses to best reflect or ward off the sun's rays. Use solar panels in place of shingles. Why not power night lights and such with wind turbines? Aircondition by circulating ground water through pipes in the floor, with electric motores powered by solar panels. Require feed lots and dairies to generate gas to power generatore with manure (that'll serve a pollution goal as well). And thousands of other things, no one of which is in itself a lot, but multiplied by millions would make huge contributions.

Like Big says, a little here, a little there.....diversify.

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Ace of Spades
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Global warming is joke...Ha ha ha ha ha...Yeah the planet is warming....It's not man made.
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bdgee
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Bull

Listen to the Administration and the rightwing hacks and you have about as much chance of understanding global warming as finding the WMDs in Iraq. They are full of s--t and so is anyone spreeading their BS.

It goes without saying, if you actually believe those rightwing hacks, you started out worse than enlightened, you can only get worse, and clearly have nothing credible to offer on the subject.

Following along with the rightwing hacks on anything that isn't already biased is like taking driving lessons from a blind quadraplegic. You have to have both knowledge and capability to teach or learn and you need to work within reality rather than on hype.

Global warming is real and it is no joke. Those claiming so are.

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The Bigfoot
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Anybody else think it was weird how Bushy went to Latin America to promote alternative fuels and energy?

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bdgee
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Weird?

No, he was looking for someplace to go to try and change the topic.

I think he latched onto the idea, not out of concern or interest (and certainly not out of any concern for the welfare of the U.S.), but simply to try and ignore and distract from the total failue that he is as a president.

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bond006
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Golbal warming a myth? More kool Aide please.
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urnso77
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I believe it exists. I just don't believe its man made. There are scientists on both sides of the aisle on this one. Although the way the media portrays global warming is kinda sad.
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