Sparky's Pick - Tiger Telematics
Email Me Here
01/27/2004 - Since the 2004 Consumer Electronics Show ended a few weeks ago, Sparky's been looking for a follow-up news release from Tiger Telematics; one that would fill the world in on how
Gametrac's unveiling went, an unveiling that was widely publicized due to TIGR's 12/22/2004 release that announced it.
Within a week after the Show ended, a follow-up release seemed so overdue that
for a while there Sparky found himself predicting news on a daily basis.
Well, the unveiling follow-up news was finally released, shortly after the close last Friday.
Because Sparky was so very vocal
about the need for this follow-up release and about how important such news would be in the publicity-building equation; it seems he's now become a magnet for news release-related comments. While very few
comments that got back to Sparky were actually negative, there were not too many that were very positive either. The vast majority of TIGR fans that Sparky's talking to rated this latest news release as very
average, very non-earth-shattering.
Looking at yesterday's (Monday) trading, it's quite apparent that there was at least one large seller. Within moments after the open, TIGR shares were up a cent to
25 and volume seemed brisk with many small trades. Within a half hour, however, some decisions to lighten or liquidate were obviously made.
Recalling he old adage "buy on rumor, sell on news," it
appears at least some investors were looking for more powerful news. Or, perhaps some investors were hoping for a news-related price spike, had intentions of selling into it, and when it didn't happen they sold
anyway. If this was the case, we could even see a brief continuation of selling this morning.
Sparky also noticed yesterday that there seemed to be more and more buyers on the sidelines as TIGR share prices
fell below 22 cents. Because this 20-21 cent price range is now where existing TIGR investors seem to add to their positions, Sparky thinks that this area has replaced the 16-17 cent range as a crucial support
Putting all this together and looking ahead, Sparky continues to believe these shares are well positioned for further advances and that over the weeks ahead the latest news release will translate into
additional publicity and eventually into heightened interest and volume in TIGR shares. On any dips below 22 cents, existing shareholders should consider adding to their positions.
01/26/2004 - It's Monday, and since the weekend was one of VERY elevated TIGR-related chatter, Sparky has taken a close look at last week's trading and expects this week to be a real strong
While you may be getting sick of hearing repeated predictions of increased publicity surrounding Gametrac's recent unveiling at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), it is finally starting to expand.
And as has been noted before, news releases are what most publicity is built upon - TIGR's 12/22/04 news release about the CES Gametrac unveiling is a good example, for every single one of the many dozens of
articles and internet pieces written since has referenced that same release.
For this reason, Sparky still believes that once a "how-the-unveiling-went" news release, in some form, eventually hits
the wire, many unveiling-related stories are sure to follow and will then mushroom rapidly. This, Sparky believes, will be the source of the increased volume and investor interest needed to take TIGR share prices
closer to, and perhaps even over, 30 cents.
Looking back at last week, it appears to have been a continuation of the previous week in that trading was confined to the 20 -25 cent area and in that intraday
trading patterns suggested additional base building.
In Sparky's opinion, all these millions of shares trading hands between 20 and 25 cents represent a very healthy change in TIGR's shareholder
base. In a nutshell, those "old" investors who have lightened or liquidated are collectively no longer as big a profit-taking selling threat. And similarly, these "new" investors who bought TIGR
shares between 20 and 25 cents do not collectively constitute a sizable profit-taking treat until share prices are well over 30 cents.
In the weeks ahead, increased attention will likely be paid to
Gametrac's ongoing production schedule. And when an actual production date is eventually announced, and particularly as that date approaches, TIGR shares should perform very, very well.
Putting all this
together, Sparky remains extremely bullish on TIGR shares and continues to think they're a steal at prices below 50 cents.
- Please stand by - Sparky has to publicly consume a little more crow for yesterday's "completely wrong" volume prediction!
Sparky, Washing Down Crow With Water
Although we saw trading of 782,000 shares yesterday, and while that pace was right in line with the 50-day average of 789,000 shares and was about 70% above the 200-day average of 464,000 shares; Tuesday's total was still only about one third of what Sparky was expecting.
But because TIGR shares did manage a gain of 1.5 cents Tuesday, even though volume was relatively light and even though equities in general were weak; Sparky's going to climb right back out on the limb and predict a REAL STRONG OPEN TODAY on volume that's at least double the 782,000 shares we saw Tuesday, maybe triple.
In closing, Sparky continues to feel that TIGR shares are an excellent investment at any price under 50 cents. He's also noticed that they can usually be bought for about a penny less during lunch hour. Today, however, we may very well see the lowest prices for the whole day right at the open.
Thanks For Your Time!
- Since Sparky began sharing his opinions about penny stocks in general and Tiger Telematics' shares in particular, he has enjoyed more and more feedback from a delightfully diverse and notably expanded audience.
That said, Sparky thinks it's noteworthy that over the past few days he's been absolutely inundated with TIGR-related emails and phone calls. In fact, in a relative sense, the last time TIGR-related chatter level was anywhere near this high was on January 6th, the day before trading volume hit 6.7 million shares!
The subject matter of all this chatter ranges from many rumors of news and announcements to several predictions of lucrative takeovers and robust future earnings; but what's most important is 95% of the chatter contains positive tidbits about TIGR shares.
Much of the sudden recent interest in Gametrac, and in TIGR shares, is probably in response to heightened publicity surrounding the product's recent unveiling at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, for already countless articles and reviews have been written, and many more are presently in the process of being written.
And it's Sparky's take that most of the takeover-related chatter also has to do with all the increased attention and favorable press Gametrac is now receiving. After all, one would think that a potential buyer would be inclined to act before what's being bought becomes more popular, and thus more expensive - not afterwards!
With the above as a backdrop, Sparky is compelled to listen to what TIGR watchers are saying and predict a pretty strong gap open for today, Tuesday, perhaps as high as 24 cents. Intraday, if volume even approaches the 3 million shares Sparky foresees, buyers may have to pay around 30 cents a share.
Accordingly, those planning to establish positions in TIGR shares, or to add to existing positions, should consider trading early in the day, and conversely, those wishing to lighten might want to wait until nearer the session's end, when Sparky thinks prices will be higher.
If Sparky's wrong and volume just doesn't develop, which could happen if the major equity markets open real weak, prices should at least hold firm around Friday 22 cent close.
Thanks For Listening!
01/16/2004 - This, being a Friday before a 3-day weekend, could be a VERY interesting day.
Worst Case - If trading volume is real thin, at least relative to the volume we've seen over the past
few weeks, like let's say under 500,000 shares; then we may see a rather weak open, directionless intraday trading, and we may even loose a cent or two more at the close.
Middle Ground - If daily volume
exceeds one half million shares but is significantly under 2 million shares, then we're apt to see pretty much a duplicate of Thursday.
Best Case - In the event that volume exceeds 3 million shares,
Sparky would expect a strong open, that most trading would be around 25 cents, and that the close would be at least a penny above a quarter.
And, if volume were to even approach the 6.7 million share level
we saw on Wednesday of last week, the Spark thinks share prices would plow right through the 25 cent area and then re-test and close nearer to the 30-cent region.
Sparky continues to views these shares as a
favorite and still thinks they're a steal at any prices below 50 cents.
Wishing you all a safe and enjoyable weekend and holiday. Tuesday should be very exciting!
- Sparky predicted that TIGR shares would open strong yesterday (Wednesday), and he even called for above-average volume; but he really didn't expect an eight-cent spike on volume of 1.68 million shares!
One could conclude that this rapid rebound was simply caused by potential buyers standing shoulder to shoulder on the sidelines who all jumped at the buying opportunity once shares prices bounced a few cents above yesterday's 13 cent intraday low. But, if such pent-up demand had been the sole cause, wouldn't volume have far exceeded 2 million shares?
What Sparky is saying is, there may have been "other" forces at work here. For starters, recent volatility in share prices may have left some market makers with positions, long & short, that weren't desired. The same volatility may have also attracted a slice of true traders. Not to be confused with long-term investors, or even with investors who speculate aggressively, true traders trade their positions constantly, usually within weeks, often intraday. And shares that move 50% or more in one day, like TIGR shares did yesterday, tend to attract this type of actively-trading shareholder.
That said, Sparky's looking for the opening today (Thursday) to perhaps be a little bumpy. The "bumpy" part of Spark's prediction reflects the rather relevant fact that today's opening comes on the heals of a day that saw a 50% gain in share prices - from 16 to 24 cents!
My take is that yesterday's 8-cent spike, which many may not have discovered until after the close or even until this morning, will trigger at least a modest wave of lightening and profit taking. The related spurt of pre-opening sell orders, with many likely to be "at market," could easily exceed a couple hundred thousand shares.
So, unless there is strong buying demand at today's open, including some large blocks, that more than offsets profit taking pressures, prices may initially drift lower. If this does happen, the Spark does not look for it to last. In fact, if buyers outnumber sellers right out of the shoot, we might see no profit taking dip at all and instead just continue merrily along our way back towards the 30 cent area.
As mentioned repeatedly in his many recent pieces below, Sparky believes that publicity, and the related internet chatter, about Gametrac's unveiling at the 2004 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas last week is expanding exponentially right now and that in the weeks ahead the direct result will be explosive trading volume in TIGR shares, similar to what we saw last week.
It is for this reason that Sparky continues to think TIGR shares are a real steal at prices below 50 cents an that the underlying trend here is clearly up.
- When Sparky signed on yesterday, he not only publicly ate crow for the above stock's dismal performance on Monday, but he also refrained from making any bold predictions about what these obviously excited shares would do yesterday - Tuesday.
In retrospect, the Spark's glad that he didn't predict support in the 20 cent area, for he was very tempted to make such a call.
Today, however, Sparky's boldness has returned! He now looks for a near-term spike in daily volume that should feed upon itself indefinitely, a solid high-volume opening for today (Wednesday), and a steady rise back to and over 30 cents as a sizable gush of Consumer Electronics Show (CES) related stories begins to bombard all media sources over the weeks ahead.
The main reason Sparky now foresees immediate price improvement in TIGR shares is that he's confident there is about to be a sudden surge in coverage that will stimulate the same explosive volume we saw last week.
But there are also technical factors that support and explain Sparky's views. Consider this, for example: From 01/02/2004, when TIGR shares last closed below 16 cents, until 01/19/2004, the day they closed at their recent high of 29.5 cents, over 19 million shares changed hands - 19 million shares!.
Since then, in two days, 3.9 millions more shares traded hands and the shares are now right back @ 16 cents, where they were 2 weeks and 19 million shares ago! In other words, it took five times as many shares changing hands to lift the stock's price $ 15 as it took to knock it down $ 15! The Spark detects something seriously wrong with this picture! And not all of this detected "wrongness" can be explained by simple market inefficiencies! It seemed almost deliberate!
Looking ahead, Sparky suspects that any measurable hike in volume, like the one that's about to materialize as CES-related stuff hits the web, will send prices rapidly north again.
To conclude, Sparky continues to love these TIGR shares at any prices below 50 cents.
- It's Tuesday, and Sparky's primary purpose for signing on today is so he can publicly eat crow for his incorrect Monday predictions.
To recap, for yesterday the Spark was looking for a strong post-weekend opening, maybe even over 30 cents, and for continued high volume, perhaps 3 million shares or more.
What really happened was we had a weak open off a cent and a subsequent 6-cent slide on reduced volume of 1.8 million.
In retrospect, the Spark thought news about Gametrac's recent unveiling would have spread far faster and wider than it yet has, particularly on internet sites.
Moreover, Sparky apparently failed to fully comprehend the true magnitude of the profit-taking temptations that prevail after investors have experienced a rapid, fivefold increase in share values, especially over a weekend.
In a nutshell, some of the company's initial and most loyal investors bailed on Monday and even more lightened. Perhaps it was just the weekend spent staring at profits, or maybe it was some connection between certain investors; but there was least 200,000 shares for sale right at the open and over a half million dumped before noon.
And instead of just plain liquidating - like let's say placing a limit order to sell a 100,000 shares at 29 cents (which a healthy market could easily absorb), these sellers instead broke there objective into 5 blocks of 20,000, or 4 blocks of 25,000, and often entered the many smaller blocks sells "at market."
Split-order "at market" selling really accelerated a slide that otherwise may have amounted to but a few cents. When blocks are liquidated in this "split" fashion, it also sends the WRONG message to market makers, wrong in that they are stripped of their ability to match large sale blocks with large purchase blocks.
The resulting inefficiency also, and understandably, scares off potential "new" investors.
On the bright side, the Spark did notice Monday that those who were buying usually had to pay close to the best ask in order to execute, especially in trades invloving larger blocks.
Looking ahead, the Spark is not going to call for a strong open today. But I would like to close by pointing out the significant influence that volume is going to have on share prices over the next few weeks.
And with the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) just ended, Sparky suspects that internet and trade magazines are about to be bombarded with articles about Gametrac's recent unveiling. These releases, as Gametrac's production date approaches, should serve to create plenty of demand - enough perhaps to cause a near-term test of that recent 39 cent high -
To conclude, Sparky still loves TIGR shares, and will continue to at any price below 50 cents!
01/12/2004 - Tiger Telematic's primary product, a feature-packed handheld gaming device called GAMETRAC, was just unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas - and it was VERY WELL
This unveiling, combined with all the news that preceded it, resulted in some very explosive recent volume, particularly during the past week.
The net result of all this? Since the week
before Christmas, TIGR shares prices have soared from a nickel to a close last Friday (01/09/2004) of 29.5 cents!
At the request of friends who are concerned about his well-being, Sparky has promised to tone
things down a little and to refrain (at least for now) from waiving any bright-colored TAKEOVER flags and from further rambling about how Michael Carrender, the company's president, continues, as recently as
last week, to buy TIGR shares on the open market, even at near-record-high prices.
Rather than speculating on those matters, the Spark will instead conclude his abbreviated thoughts with a brief analysis of
last Friday's trading and a prediction of what he sees for today (Monday).
ANALYSIS - Friday marked the end of a week where nearly 15 million shares traded hands at prices over 25 cents. The
"old" investors lightening their positions and locking in profits where clearly way outnumbered by "new" investors wishing to establish, or add to, their TIGR positions. The Spark wants to know
what else besides the above-described supply-demand imbalance could even begin to explain the rapid upward journey these shares have enjoyed?
Looking ahead, all that base building seen last week around 25
cents, combined with all the favorable upcoming reviews Sparky expects from CES-related articles, translates into yet another strong BUY from this seasoned corner.
PREDICTION - For today (Monday),
Sparky's looking for another real strong open, perhaps even over 31 cents, continued strong volume, probably well in excess of 2 million shares, and a close over 32 cents.
If today's trading volume
significantly exceeds 3 million shares - and with the Consumer Electronics Show just ended, it could - the Spark wouldn't be surprised to see intraday trading over 35 cents. And if volume were to explode to the
7 million share area, as it did last Tuesday - 01/07/2004, TIGR shares could easily close near 40 cents. And as the Spark keeps saying, TIGR shares are an absolute steal at prices below 50 cents!
- Tiger Telematics (TIGR) @ $ 0.250 is still the favorite pick of Sparky here, your seasoned observer.
For reasons I will summarize in the paragraphs that follow, I continue to firmly believe that owners of TIGR shares are about to enjoy phenomenal growth, amidst ample liquidity, and in the very near future.
And now that Gametrac, the company's primary product, has been unveiled, and is now on display, at the ongoing Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas, it is also my opinion that the likelihood of an acquisition is now much, much greater.
Gametrac is a feature-packed, next-generation pocket-sized gaming device that's built on a Microsoft Windows CE.NET operating system, and it hasn't had a bad review yet. Aside from advanced gaming, the unit can also serve as a digital camera, a video or MP3 player, a tracking unit, or a SMS or MMS messaging facility. And, with its bluetooth 2 and GPRS features, wireless competition among multiple players is possible - truly a first for handheld gaming!
To develop and produce Gametrac, Tiger Telematics contracted directly with an impressive group of very respected specialty firms including Plextek, Intrinsyc, and Celestica; and indirectly with some of their giant partners, like Xilinx, Inc. So far, as the lion's share of compensation, each of these "partners" has accepted restricted TIGR shares instead of cash. For this reason, each of these "partners" has benefited wonderfully from the recent fivefold runup in TIGR share prices. Moreover, they all stand to further benefit from the additional gains this author foresees.
After considering the above, especially in light of recent trading activity, this author believes he's looking at a classic takeover candidate in the $ 2.50 to $ 3 a share range. The rapid runup in share prices from 7 cents to a dime during the last week of 2003 supports this view, as does the further runup thus far in 2004 to as high as 39 cents. Also consistent with my better-days-ahead beliefs, the company's president, Michael Carrender, continues to buy open market TIGR shares - even at these near record high prices, some as recently as this week. He's bought over 130,000 shares in just the past few months!
Trading yesterday (Thu - 01/08/2004) was far more orderly than the previous day. But even though the 29 cent close represented a 4 cent gain over Wed's 25 cent close, and while the 2.9 million share volume was over seven times the 200-day average; TIGR shares still seemed somewhat shackled by intraday waves of profit taking.
Worry not, however, for this is truly to be expected when you consider the many millions of shares that were bought just last week between a dime and fifteen cents. Now that we're suddenly in the 26 to 30 cent area, many of these "new" TIGR shareholders, regardless of their initial intentions and/or objectives, are having a real hard time holding onto recently-acquired shares that have doubled in price in just a week. But, I can't say I really blame them, nor am I very surprised.
Looking ahead though, I see a complete evaporation of the many 5 to 10 thousand share market orders that have peppered the tape for the past few days. Just over the past three market days, almost ten million shares, or about a third of the company's total trading float, has changed hands at levels over 25 cents. For that reason, this writer doesn't expect another major wave of profit taking, or even any significant lightening, until your TIGR shares approach the 40 cent mark.
With the above thoughts in mind, here's what this watcher sees for today (Fri - 01/09/2004) - The opening's going to be strong! Your TIGR shares may gap open at over 30 cents and volume is again likely to be at least 5, and perhaps even 10, times the 400,000-share average volume of the past 200 days. Volume of 2 to 3 million shares would likely produce a trading range of 28 to 32 cents with a close just over 30. Trading in excess of 3 million shares might get real exciting in that it would entirely dry up recent supplies generated from lightening and profit taking trades, which would no doubt produce a trading range high of 35 cents or more, with a close of at least 33 cents.
And as I've said before, those wishing to immediately acquire, especially if you're using a major brokerage house that doesn't specialize in pink sheet stocks, should not bicker over pennies - for if you do, you may miss out on many, many dollars. And finally, if you do take a position, or if you already have one, and you're suddenly confronted with a sizable profit - please don't panic - instead, consider just lightening.
Tiger Telematics (TIGR)
Over the next few days and weeks the common shares of Tiger Telematics (TIGR), in the opinion of this author, will reward their owners with countless intraday
trading opportunities, ample liquidity, and phenomenal growth - which is precisely what they've done over the past few weeks on their journey between a nickel and 39 cents.
Although TIGR shares closed
yesterday (WED - 01/07/2004) at 25 cents, this opinion, which I've shared with thousands over the past few weeks, still stands! And, it is based not only on my thoughts regarding Gametrac, the company's
primary product, but also on the related partnerships that were established as it was developed.
The Gametrac unit is a feature-packed, next-generation handheld gaming device that utilizes a Microsoft WINDOWS
CE.NET operating system. In addition to the unit's advanced gaming capabilities, it can also be used as a digital camera, a video or MP3 player, a SMS or MMS messaging facility, and a backwards working GPS
tracking device. Moreover, its bluetooth 2 & GPRS features allow wireless competition among multiple players.
Through all phases of design & engineering to actual production, Tiger Telematics entered
into several contractual agreements over the past year (See TIGR news releases), and each of its partners were compensated, at least in large part, with TIGR shares. All these instead-of-cash shares are restricted,
and will remain so for at least another year - unless TIGR is taken over.
The companies TIGR became "partners" with in order to get Gametrac this far include Plextek, Synergenix, Intrinsyc, and
Celestica. These are all big players in their related fields & markets; they all deal regularly with the Sonys, Microsofts, IBMs, and Intels of the world; many interact with huge subcontractors (Like Xilinx);
and each and every one of them stands to benefit from the recent runup in TIGR share prices. Conversely, none of them stands to gain from a return to five cents.
Pull all this together and it appears to this
author we have all the ingredients needed for not only a takeover, but perhaps even a bidding war. Also striking this author as very, very interesting is the fact that TIGR's president, Michael Carrender, has
purchased over 130,000 shares over the past few weeks, some as recently as today, many at prices near all-time highs, and has sold none (See Form 4 filings).
As for today's trading - opening at 29, three
cents above the prior close, running up to 39 cents on 4 million shares before noon, and then closing at 25 cents - it had my phone ringing all day and my inbox stuffed.
My advice - don't panic. Profit
taking is bound to happen, and that's precisely what we saw late session WED. What's important to note, however, is that the bulk of WED's 6.6 million share volume (Over 75%) happened between prices of
27 and 37 cents. My prediction is that today (THU - 01/08/2004) will be another day of active trading and if volume even approaches WED's 6.6 million share level, the shares will test the 39 cent high.
conclusion, TIGR shares are a steal at any price below fifty cents. In this author's opinion, a realistic takeover price would be cash and/or equivalents of $ 2.50 to $ 3.00 a share. Lastly, if accumulating,
especially if you're using a major brokerage firm, please don't bicker over pennies or you're bound to miss out on many, many dollars!
Thanks For Listening!