I don't think it is entirely that though. When it experienced the large drop around May 20th, it hit a new 52 week low as well as attracting a lot of bounce players. Volume immediately picked up for the stock since then.
So it was on the bounce player scans, now its on above average volume players scans, and I just picked it up on my TA stock scans.
The fax may be true, but I think this one is just getting a lot of attention. They did release a pr may 8th and several on may 15th and 17th. That could be helping as well. Matt
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quote:Originally posted by logical buyer: Gapped up Wednesday morning, and closed up 30% today. At one point it was up 40% today.
quote:Originally posted by imakmony2005: Well how did the stock do?
Equally as important, it confirmed the 50 MA as support. MACD grows stronger.
If it does move strong tomorrow, watch it when it approaches the 100 MA. That is the next major resistance although previous highs do seem to halt uptrends sometimes. Matt
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1 star it is.take me a life time to learn it.your smart at this i'll just play in your sand box thats if you have some picks you would like to share
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I will read the fax, he is sending it over to me now. He said the DD on the fax sounds very promising. Sounds like this company has a lot going for it. Not all the faxes that are sent out are scams. I have played some before. I got in at .57 (just my disclosure).
quote:Originally posted by permanentjaun: We'll have to wait and see logical buyer.
I don't think it is entirely that though. When it experienced the large drop around May 20th, it hit a new 52 week low as well as attracting a lot of bounce players. Volume immediately picked up for the stock since then.
So it was on the bounce player scans, now its on above average volume players scans, and I just picked it up on my TA stock scans.
The fax may be true, but I think this one is just getting a lot of attention. They did release a pr may 8th and several on may 15th and 17th. That could be helping as well. Matt
Vinnie1 - I should also note that I may not be looking to "invest" in a company, but I may not be looking for one to two day trades either. I look for support, trends, and signs that a stock is still going to increase even if it is down for a day or two. This usually comes from the stock rebounding off of support levels. So make wise judgements when looking to exit your positions. Set mental stop losses or anything that helps you make profit overall. Matt
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imakmony2005
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HMM, Gonna take a look. thanks matt
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Not sure how to read this one right now. PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT! The stock has ran well over 100% this week. Profit is profit, don't expect to find a 300%-1000% every time.
Here is my assessment though.
It doesn't look good in that the RSI has turned and couldn't break the 70 mark today. MACD is still looking ok. It obviously turned down a little after todays loss.
Since it broke support at .64 we look to the upper boll band at .60, previous highs this week, and the 50MA at .53. I don't like those support numbers. Of course we can't expect them to be close after a run. Quick ups and downs.
I was expecting a loss on monday to possibly through wednesday to find support yet a continued up trend. This was when it was still +15%. The swing to -8% completely caught me of guard.
So I am unsure from that standpoint what to expect on monday. What I do find peculiar is finding the similarities between mondays run and then loss on tuesday to yesterdays run and loss today. Both days involved a gap up on the second day, and a close within the real body of the previous days run. The only thing I don't like about todays candle is there is no lower shadow as it closed at the low of the day.
Do what feels comfortable to you. Take your profits when you can, set mental stop losses. I'll be look for next week to see if this uptrend is confirmed or if this is just a quick run and dump.
posted
OK, Matt, notes from the show; any transcribing errors are mine; but according to my notes--
Con: RSI a concern as it has had problems sustaining a high when bumping up against high RSI
Volume--has performed better on less volume, but [as of Thursday night] buys had dominated the preceding five days
Moneyflow on the fence [indicating neither pro nor con]
Pro:
closed above 50-day moving average [ .53 ] with four days of confirmed climb toward 100-day
ADX & Aroon in agreement [both "green lines" crossing over]
Williams very encouraging; Slow Stoch not so much, but could turn up if Williams continues so strong Fri/Mon
said it needed 800k-1m in volume, and with that should have a green day. [well, as we know, that didn't happen] To continue onward, needs to close above .91-.92 & .93 would be even better...
Matt, personally, I agree with you re "higher highs, higher lows," but I also see the point about trouble with RSI. In a full-blown run, RSI doesn't really "count," but may well be an issue now--if for no other reason than some will automatically assume it's "overbought."
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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Yes I agree with a lot from what you've said.
To make myself clear on what I am trying to accomplish with my TA plays. I am looking for plays that have either traded sideways for a long time or have been beaten down slowly and are reversing gradually. I look for accumulation and slow growth. Since posting the play late in its run, one could have made an easy 25-50%. I never intend to hold a stock past its prime.
Looking at the chart, we will need confirmation on monday as to the direction it will take from here. In the past it's runs have not lasted terrible long when hitting such highs in the RSI. Although, it has yet to reach any of the previous RSI highs. It is at 63 right now with previous highs of 67, 68 69, 81, and 95. A few of those are from the low volume period that I discount as credible towards using preceding history as evidence of predicting the future movement.
The past runs when the RSI spiked also lasted at least a week longer than what has happened thus far. The first took nearly a month and the other almost two weeks.
Just a side note, I would say pick between RSI, Williams %R and slow stoch. They are all indicators that try to predict overbought and oversold conditions. Find the one that predicts the stock the best and use it. Don't try to confuse yourself with all three. Therefore I prefer the RSI because the stock has only reached these elevated levels of RSI only a handful of times; only during its runs. The %R and stoch lines are too volitile in my opinion and consistently fluctuate from extreme lows to extreme highs. I would only use them in trying to look at trends and even right now they're not entirely helpful. I still prefer the RSI when looking for a trend.
I encourage everyone with positions to look at the stocks situation and not their own. While some may only be up 10% or even down a few points after fridays sell off, the stock has ran well over 100% since it reversed. Don't get stuck holding a bag if it reverses. The stock won't care if you only made 5% or are down 5% and need to make money. When its run is over and technicals don't look good, take your loss or whatever profits you may have and move on.
After saying that I will say that I do believe the downtrend has reversed or still has plenty of growth potential. It has crossed into the positive on the MACD for the first time in about 9-10 months. RSI is at levels it hasn't seen in about the same time period and only sees when it is running.
I also like that this is the first time in, again, nearly 9-10 months that the stock has closed above the 50 MA and stayed there. It seems to be riding the bollinger band as well, which I really like. Stocks such as RSHN, USXP, NDOL, and FPPL seem to ride the top bollinger rather than use it as resistance. I do not expect any of my picks to play out like those stocks. I am just providing evidence for why I like how the top bollinger band is setting up.
BuyTex - You are going to have to explain why we need to close above .91, .92, or .93 to continue upward. At our current price of .62 that would be a 50% increase. Although that would be nice, 10-20% days aren't terrible either. I wouldn't mind a close just around .70.
Another note about RSI, while it does signal overbought, it can stay at those levels for long periods of time. Check the run from may 2005. It was at levels much higher than the current RSI for nearly a month. I would look to other indicators to look for a fall in price/trend reversal such as MACD, MA's, etc..
quote:BuyTex - You are going to have to explain why we need to close above .91, .92, or .93 to continue upward. At our current price of .62 that would be a 50% increase. Although that would be nice, 10-20% days aren't terrible either. I wouldn't mind a close just around .70.
Matt, as I mentioned, was working from notes taken Thursday night re the analysis given during the show...I took that to mean a close at that level will confirm potential for further movement north.
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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I don't believe closing at .91, -.93 would really confirm potential for further movement north. When I look at charts I look for support and resistance. These come in the form of previous lows and high's, MA's, and chart formations such as ascending triangles.
Currently there is no chart formation forming to act as support resistance. If you look at the chart below draw a line from the stock when it was at 4.50 down to touch the stock at its high of 1.18. Then draw another line from when the stock was at its low of .45 to touch the stock when it had a low of 2.00 in december 05. You'll see the stock was trading in a descending channel. Just this week it broke that channel and is perhaps yet another reason to have invested in this stock.
My point is that it broke its trading pattern and has no support/resistance from such patterns. So I look elsewhere for support/resistance.
Another form is in previous highs and lows. They form support at .45 and .35. A bleak picture with resistance at .64, .79, and .90. I do not trust previous highs and lows as very important levels however. For one, those days could have been random and outside the standard sample set such as the low of .45 that came after a day when it dropped from nearly 1.00. I only use previous highs and lows when I can see a pattern in them, such as when forming descending channels like I did earlier in this post. Now that we are out of that channel, what do those previous highs and lows mean to us? I say next to nothing.
Another TA trader also said that different highs and lows strengths are affected by how much volume the stock had on that day. Since volumes will vary, how do we truly compare different numbers. Does a price with 30% more volume than another days high mean it is 30% tougher to break as a resistance level? Can we draw that conclusion? Then how far back do you look for previous highs and lows. Will a high from 2 years ago really stop a stock from gaining more? It becomes too difficult to compute.
I like to keep it simple. If the chart doesn't look good easily after looking at it for 30 seconds then it probably won't look that great after 4 hours.
If there is no trading pattern(descending channel, etc.), and I discredit the previous highs and lows because of that, then I look for MA's. I prefer to use the 20, 50, 100, and 200 MA's. Thus, current resistance on TZMT for me is at 1.00 with support at .50 from the 100 and 50 MA's respectively.
Therefore, I don't see the .91-.94 range really being a crucial point to determine if this growth period will continue. For me the true test will be breaking 1.00 considering the 200 MA is at 2.84, along ways away.
NOW, after saying all that, I will say that I do still consider previous highs and lows when looking at resistance. For example, what happens if we have another day where a run is stalled at .79? It will confirm that there is resistance at .79. The same could be said if the stock stalls at the 100 MA of 1.00. The difference I see is that there is no varying degree for the MA. It is not varied by the volume from the past and is seen immediately. Again, previous highs/lows can be seen as varying in strength depending on how long ago they occured and how much volume the stock had that day.
So don't go by MA's alone. Look for patterns.
That was a very long way to say .91-.94 doesn't seem important. I would say breaking .79 and then 1.00 are much more important right now. I only say .79 because that high occured this past week and perhaps the current investors are still able to take profits at that point.
posted
the chart analysis tonight was sumpin like this:
"two consecutive days above 50-day MA is a good sign...
the BB breakout, obviously encouraging
missed the CCI comments
Slow Stoch suggests 'got some strength'
ADX-Aroon leaning toward another red day...
Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily...could be good if volume increases...say around 800k...If a red day? does need to close above .53, otherwise, it's losing its strength
If it does have a green day? Needs to close above .80 to confirm march toward a dollar"
Matt, am not saying this is gospel, merely providing a third-party opinion, in keeping with your original post--I consider you a fellow "student of the game" ...
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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Yes I understand that your comments are not meant as gospel. I do appreciate the time you're taking to listen to the show for us. I'm just giving my reasons for where I am finding support/resistance and why.
Just seems to me that setting the .91-.94 range is shooting for the stars right now. I'd prefer the stock didn't run 50% on monday so that the chances of profit taking on tuesday is lessened. It'd turn more into a pump and dump with that volitility IMO.
If we go down to .53 look for a bounce off of it. I'm not expecting that great a dip though.
posted
Bounced off .53 twice, but did dip to .52. Dissappointing to see it have to confirm support at the 50 MA, but it did seem to halt the drop pretty well.
Look to tomorrow for confirmation of a continued uptrend. Will also be interesting to see what happens if/when the 20 MA crosses the 50 MA with strength.
I'm looking for the next play now. Matt
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