I am going to try and start my own TA plays every once and a while. My first unofficial call was NWAU which went from ther .07 range to .40 after I called it. You can check my posts. We'll call that one a fluke since it was my first.
I find these plays based on certain criteria which I think are crucial for a stock to run. Im going to release what I think all these plays have in common later after I sit down for a few hours researching.
Anyways, here is my first "official" Matt's TA Play - TZMT
Something to notice is the O/S Outstanding Shares: 997,140 as of 2005-08-23
Let's take a look at the chart
There are a few things I want to point out. The first, and very important, is the MACD. It has been trending up for months; essentially since january. More crucial is that the MACD is as close to zero as it has ever since late October 2005. I believe it is in a much better position to cross that line now. This should create a jump in price by itself.
Another TA tool I like a lot is CMF, aka Chaikin Money Flow. There are several ways to look at the CMF. The first is the trend. Since mid-march it has not dropped significantly into the negative. The trend is overall up.
Another way to look at the CMF is by how long the stock has been in the green. The chart does not show how much longer before october the CMF was in the green, but the stock was declining significantly while the CMF was in a strong green, above .2. This indicates accumulation. So for the past 8 months the stock was in the green under accumulation for 6 months and under distribution for 2 months. The distribution was also minimal because it barely broke -.2. The spike mid-march can be thrown out because the stock experienced a huge price decrease which affects CMF figures.
Another TA tool showing large gains approaching is RSI. Not in those 8 months has the RSI trended up to to its current levels. Looking at a one year chart on bigcharts.com, there have been only three other times the RSI was this high. Two of those times the stock jumped in price dramatically. The other time the stock was not receiving much volume, I throw that time out for consideration as the stock is not trading like it was during that period.
The last TA tool I want to throw out to everyone are the MA lines. TZMT has been above its 20 MA for about 4 days now and just crossed the 50 MA making it support as well. TZMT had tough time in the past crossing the 20 MA, and when it did it was back below it within a day or two. The stock has not crossed above the 50 MA in 8 months as it has today.
Thus, I look to the next MA's for resistance. I use the 100 and 200 day MA's. The 100 MA is at 1.01 and 2.86. So the current price of .70 has plenty of room to grow. Previous high's do not provide much resistance to me as MA's do but if you're wondering they are at .90 and 1.18. There were other previous high's, but just today the stock has rallied EASILY past them.
I wish I would have posted this earlier in the day so I could claim I called it at .55 or so. Oh well. That is my first "official" Matt TA Play. What are everyones thoughts? Matt
Posted by Repoman75 on :
Ok, let's see how you do.
Posted by vinnie1 on :
keep them coming
Posted by skipdeez on :
Lots of great DD there. I will be tuned into your picks...also would be glad to hear what all of your plays have in common. Thanks!
Posted by vinnie1 on :
let us know.where with u guy
Posted by amswap on :
Good pick, but why did you list it in the micro thread?
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Good question, lol. I don't know. This is the popular thread and I am sure I will be finding micro stocks as well. I didn't really consider if the stock was below .1 or not, just to get it out to the most people to get the most criticism. I'd still like to hear from people that disagree with the pick. Matt
Posted by BuyTex on :
well, also, we don't have the micros over .10 anymore, either...
Posted by logical buyer on :
TZMT- was called by Simon of Sub Penny Radio. I believe it was Tuesday night's broadcast.
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Logical buyer, hope that isn't what is affecting the stock right now and thus a pump and dump, but I will say I do not listen to that show and this did indeed show up on my scans.
Kinda dissappointed I couldn't be the first on this one then. Oh well, maybe next time. I'm still behind this play and my dd though.
What did Simon say about it on the show? Matt
Posted by BuyTex on :
Matt, I don't remember it from the Tuesday night show, but I do like the chart. Still looking to see what the resistance at HOD was about...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Yea I'm not sure either. I can't give any real answer. I can only hypothesize that profit taking occured since even those entering this morning could have gotten 35-40% profit. Yesterday was still an up day as well so even greater returns are possible. Seems to be holding the upper 60's well though. Matt
EDIT at 2:13 - Seems to recovering a bit too. Ask up to .74
Posted by amswap on :
Hard to argue with the figures.
Posted by BuyTex on :
Matt, Just hit a snag...TA won't give info about share structure...gonna call the company next...
Posted by BuyTex on :
got IR firm on line, seems to be going better...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
As of 2/20/06 - 34 million shares outstanding BUT only 1.5 million in the float.
I watched the Local news clip on their website covering the company in florida. They are the first wireless heart monitor system in the world. Supposed to have 24 hour monitoring of the heart to detect peculiarities in heart rhythm to possibly detect heartattacks before they happen. Pretty interesting.
But anyways, chart still looks good to me. Matt
P.S. - If I want to sound like Im on the QBID thread I could say that the company says they're targeting an 81 billion dollar market. Hehe.
Posted by BuyTex on :
ooops, IR guy just goes to Bloomberg and quotes to me from there...I explain my line of inquiry and note my skepticism re "gagged TA," so he quickly agreed to contact the company and get it straightened it...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Ha, I always get a kick out of the mental image when I hear "gagged TA"
Posted by 10of13 on :
quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: Matt, Just hit a snag...TA won't give info about share structure...gonna call the company next...
I have been finding several TA's not giving out the info unless the Company sends them an authorization...I don't quite get that...Isn't there some "rule" that you have to file with the Sec if you own more than 5% of the shares? How are you suppose to know if you own %5 if you can't find the info out?
Posted by logical buyer on :
I listen to the Tuesday night show that was replayed Wednesday morning and wrote the stock down.
quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: Matt, I don't remember it from the Tuesday night show, but I do like the chart. Still looking to see what the resistance at HOD was about...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Do you remember what Simon said on the show about TZMT? Why was he picking it? Matt
Posted by BuyTex on :
quote:Originally posted by 10of13:
quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: Matt, Just hit a snag...TA won't give info about share structure...gonna call the company next...
I have been finding several TA's not giving out the info unless the Company sends them an authorization...I don't quite get that...Isn't there some "rule" that you have to file with the Sec if you own more than 5% of the shares? How are you suppose to know if you own %5 if you can't find the info out?
Rule of thumb is big "Danger, Will Robinson" when TA can't or won't say; in this case, judging from various reactions, my gut feeling is they've simply got their wires crossed... However, I'm not ready to leave it at that, and simply trust www.Bloomberg et al--not for something I might hold...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
I'm afraid to say "the company seems legit" just because it is a penny stock. I did like their website though.
Anyways, I am no longer holding pennies for longer than I have to. Thus, I am not worried about a possible "gagged ta."
I get all the information I need from the charts. Little volume and interest has brought it down for months and increased volume is bringing it back up. I'm not worried, but thats my decision. Of course everyone make your own please. Matt
Posted by logical buyer on :
The chart looked good over all. He liked several indicators. MACD, Bollinger, MFI etc.
quote:Originally posted by permanentjaun: Do you remember what Simon said on the show about TZMT? Why was he picking it? Matt
Posted by vinnie1 on :
my chart says over bought.
Posted by BuyTex on :
quote:Originally posted by vinnie1: my chart says over bought.
iam no expert. tell me what you think?
Posted by logical buyer on :
This was on Tuesday's show.
quote:Originally posted by vinnie1: my chart says over bought.
Posted by vinnie1 on :
just going by what it said. date 05 18 2006 3.59pm
Posted by permanentjaun on :
They analyze the stock automatically just like american bulls. The problem is that computers can't find great stocks. I scan my stocks trying to find the bare minimum that the computer can detect correctly, such as where the MACD line is. Then I'll scan through dozens of stocks using my chart reading skills to determine if the MACD formation is how I want it.
smallcapcenter.com has these two TA figures for tzmt right now:
RSI: Overbought MACD: Bearish
The computer can't dissect a stock like a human can. So for instance, the MACD is below zero still. This usually means the stock is not doing so great. That is why the MACD is bearish on smallcapcenter. What we can deduce is that the MACD is in a strong uptrend and is about to cross zero, which is huge. I expect a large run up when that happens, after that I am unsure right now.
The same goes for the RSI. Above 70 does mean overbought conditions. That is why smallcapcenter has that noted. What we can deduce, at least what I have, is that the RSI has never been this high in 8 months. The last times it was this high it rallied twice.
Also, just look at the trend of the RSI. It still has room to go up, but the trend is showing that people are buying up this stock. That is a good sign in my book. You make your own decision on how you want to read the signals. Matt
Posted by vinnie1 on :
if you have a up date lay it out.
Posted by BuyTex on :
quote:Originally posted by vinnie1: iam no expert. tell me what you think?
can't--you posted the url to smallcapcenter's home page...
Suggestion: run your chart at stockcharts.com; be sure and click the little button for "landscape" under the "size" option; once it runs, then click the option for "linkable"; copy n' paste that url.
Posted by logical buyer on :
I have a buddy I was talking to about this stock. He said he received a fax on Tuesday at his work on TZMT. Now it makes more sense. Someone most likely brought this to Sub Penny's attention, because of a fax they received. Those faxes that are sent out to the masses, will cause pump and dumps for sure.
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
Well how did the stock do?
Posted by permanentjaun on :
We'll have to wait and see logical buyer.
I don't think it is entirely that though. When it experienced the large drop around May 20th, it hit a new 52 week low as well as attracting a lot of bounce players. Volume immediately picked up for the stock since then.
So it was on the bounce player scans, now its on above average volume players scans, and I just picked it up on my TA stock scans.
The fax may be true, but I think this one is just getting a lot of attention. They did release a pr may 8th and several on may 15th and 17th. That could be helping as well. Matt
Posted by vinnie1 on :
dammit never trust a computer if a man or woman can do it better.5 stars if your right tomorrow and will trust your picks
Posted by logical buyer on :
Gapped up Wednesday morning, and closed up 30% today. At one point it was up 40% today.
quote:Originally posted by imakmony2005: Well how did the stock do?
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Ha, don't ever trust a man or woman if its not yourself either. Educate yourself so you can help me too. Matt
P.S. - Mind not giving me a 1 star if it flops? Hehe
Posted by permanentjaun on :
quote:Originally posted by logical buyer: Gapped up Wednesday morning, and closed up 30% today. At one point it was up 40% today.
quote:Originally posted by imakmony2005: Well how did the stock do?
Equally as important, it confirmed the 50 MA as support. MACD grows stronger.
If it does move strong tomorrow, watch it when it approaches the 100 MA. That is the next major resistance although previous highs do seem to halt uptrends sometimes. Matt
Posted by vinnie1 on :
1 star it is.take me a life time to learn it.your smart at this i'll just play in your sand box thats if you have some picks you would like to share
Posted by logical buyer on :
I will read the fax, he is sending it over to me now. He said the DD on the fax sounds very promising. Sounds like this company has a lot going for it. Not all the faxes that are sent out are scams. I have played some before. I got in at .57 (just my disclosure).
quote:Originally posted by permanentjaun: We'll have to wait and see logical buyer.
I don't think it is entirely that though. When it experienced the large drop around May 20th, it hit a new 52 week low as well as attracting a lot of bounce players. Volume immediately picked up for the stock since then.
So it was on the bounce player scans, now its on above average volume players scans, and I just picked it up on my TA stock scans.
The fax may be true, but I think this one is just getting a lot of attention. They did release a pr may 8th and several on may 15th and 17th. That could be helping as well. Matt
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Lucky you logical buyer.
Vinnie1 - I should also note that I may not be looking to "invest" in a company, but I may not be looking for one to two day trades either. I look for support, trends, and signs that a stock is still going to increase even if it is down for a day or two. This usually comes from the stock rebounding off of support levels. So make wise judgements when looking to exit your positions. Set mental stop losses or anything that helps you make profit overall. Matt
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
HMM, Gonna take a look. thanks matt
Posted by vinnie1 on :
thanks matt.
Posted by BuyTex on :
Matt, I'll prolly listen to the show tonight; will submit it and report the analysis...
Posted by vinnie1 on :
how can i get the show tex
Posted by vinnie1 on :
matt can i ask you about a stock i have.bad at reading the charts.ipre
Posted by permanentjaun on :
vinnie1 - pm
Buytex - pm
Posted by permanentjaun on :
After today it looks like we may be ready for a down day. Look for support at .64, previous high from march.
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Not sure how to read this one right now. PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT! The stock has ran well over 100% this week. Profit is profit, don't expect to find a 300%-1000% every time.
Here is my assessment though.
It doesn't look good in that the RSI has turned and couldn't break the 70 mark today. MACD is still looking ok. It obviously turned down a little after todays loss.
Since it broke support at .64 we look to the upper boll band at .60, previous highs this week, and the 50MA at .53. I don't like those support numbers. Of course we can't expect them to be close after a run. Quick ups and downs.
I was expecting a loss on monday to possibly through wednesday to find support yet a continued up trend. This was when it was still +15%. The swing to -8% completely caught me of guard.
So I am unsure from that standpoint what to expect on monday. What I do find peculiar is finding the similarities between mondays run and then loss on tuesday to yesterdays run and loss today. Both days involved a gap up on the second day, and a close within the real body of the previous days run. The only thing I don't like about todays candle is there is no lower shadow as it closed at the low of the day.
Do what feels comfortable to you. Take your profits when you can, set mental stop losses. I'll be look for next week to see if this uptrend is confirmed or if this is just a quick run and dump.
What does everyone else think? Matt
Posted by vinnie1 on :
great call it was up today.a little money is better then a loss
Posted by BuyTex on :
Matt, got some notes for you...will post later this weekend. Was on job-site today and am plumb tuckered out, amigo
Posted by MoneyMoneyMoney on :
Tex, your box is full....
Posted by BuyTex on :
sorry... that happens. be clear momentarily...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Another technical thing I noticed - higher highs, higher lows - Still a good thing in my book
Posted by BuyTex on :
OK, Matt, notes from the show; any transcribing errors are mine; but according to my notes--
Con: RSI a concern as it has had problems sustaining a high when bumping up against high RSI
Volume--has performed better on less volume, but [as of Thursday night] buys had dominated the preceding five days
Moneyflow on the fence [indicating neither pro nor con]
Pro:
closed above 50-day moving average [ .53 ] with four days of confirmed climb toward 100-day
ADX & Aroon in agreement [both "green lines" crossing over]
Williams very encouraging; Slow Stoch not so much, but could turn up if Williams continues so strong Fri/Mon
said it needed 800k-1m in volume, and with that should have a green day. [well, as we know, that didn't happen] To continue onward, needs to close above .91-.92 & .93 would be even better...
Matt, personally, I agree with you re "higher highs, higher lows," but I also see the point about trouble with RSI. In a full-blown run, RSI doesn't really "count," but may well be an issue now--if for no other reason than some will automatically assume it's "overbought."
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Yes I agree with a lot from what you've said.
To make myself clear on what I am trying to accomplish with my TA plays. I am looking for plays that have either traded sideways for a long time or have been beaten down slowly and are reversing gradually. I look for accumulation and slow growth. Since posting the play late in its run, one could have made an easy 25-50%. I never intend to hold a stock past its prime.
Looking at the chart, we will need confirmation on monday as to the direction it will take from here. In the past it's runs have not lasted terrible long when hitting such highs in the RSI. Although, it has yet to reach any of the previous RSI highs. It is at 63 right now with previous highs of 67, 68 69, 81, and 95. A few of those are from the low volume period that I discount as credible towards using preceding history as evidence of predicting the future movement.
The past runs when the RSI spiked also lasted at least a week longer than what has happened thus far. The first took nearly a month and the other almost two weeks.
Just a side note, I would say pick between RSI, Williams %R and slow stoch. They are all indicators that try to predict overbought and oversold conditions. Find the one that predicts the stock the best and use it. Don't try to confuse yourself with all three. Therefore I prefer the RSI because the stock has only reached these elevated levels of RSI only a handful of times; only during its runs. The %R and stoch lines are too volitile in my opinion and consistently fluctuate from extreme lows to extreme highs. I would only use them in trying to look at trends and even right now they're not entirely helpful. I still prefer the RSI when looking for a trend.
I encourage everyone with positions to look at the stocks situation and not their own. While some may only be up 10% or even down a few points after fridays sell off, the stock has ran well over 100% since it reversed. Don't get stuck holding a bag if it reverses. The stock won't care if you only made 5% or are down 5% and need to make money. When its run is over and technicals don't look good, take your loss or whatever profits you may have and move on.
After saying that I will say that I do believe the downtrend has reversed or still has plenty of growth potential. It has crossed into the positive on the MACD for the first time in about 9-10 months. RSI is at levels it hasn't seen in about the same time period and only sees when it is running.
I also like that this is the first time in, again, nearly 9-10 months that the stock has closed above the 50 MA and stayed there. It seems to be riding the bollinger band as well, which I really like. Stocks such as RSHN, USXP, NDOL, and FPPL seem to ride the top bollinger rather than use it as resistance. I do not expect any of my picks to play out like those stocks. I am just providing evidence for why I like how the top bollinger band is setting up.
BuyTex - You are going to have to explain why we need to close above .91, .92, or .93 to continue upward. At our current price of .62 that would be a 50% increase. Although that would be nice, 10-20% days aren't terrible either. I wouldn't mind a close just around .70.
Another note about RSI, while it does signal overbought, it can stay at those levels for long periods of time. Check the run from may 2005. It was at levels much higher than the current RSI for nearly a month. I would look to other indicators to look for a fall in price/trend reversal such as MACD, MA's, etc..
Your thoughts? Matt
Posted by BuyTex on :
quote:BuyTex - You are going to have to explain why we need to close above .91, .92, or .93 to continue upward. At our current price of .62 that would be a 50% increase. Although that would be nice, 10-20% days aren't terrible either. I wouldn't mind a close just around .70.
Matt, as I mentioned, was working from notes taken Thursday night re the analysis given during the show...I took that to mean a close at that level will confirm potential for further movement north.
Posted by permanentjaun on :
I don't believe closing at .91, -.93 would really confirm potential for further movement north. When I look at charts I look for support and resistance. These come in the form of previous lows and high's, MA's, and chart formations such as ascending triangles.
Currently there is no chart formation forming to act as support resistance. If you look at the chart below draw a line from the stock when it was at 4.50 down to touch the stock at its high of 1.18. Then draw another line from when the stock was at its low of .45 to touch the stock when it had a low of 2.00 in december 05. You'll see the stock was trading in a descending channel. Just this week it broke that channel and is perhaps yet another reason to have invested in this stock.
My point is that it broke its trading pattern and has no support/resistance from such patterns. So I look elsewhere for support/resistance.
Another form is in previous highs and lows. They form support at .45 and .35. A bleak picture with resistance at .64, .79, and .90. I do not trust previous highs and lows as very important levels however. For one, those days could have been random and outside the standard sample set such as the low of .45 that came after a day when it dropped from nearly 1.00. I only use previous highs and lows when I can see a pattern in them, such as when forming descending channels like I did earlier in this post. Now that we are out of that channel, what do those previous highs and lows mean to us? I say next to nothing.
Another TA trader also said that different highs and lows strengths are affected by how much volume the stock had on that day. Since volumes will vary, how do we truly compare different numbers. Does a price with 30% more volume than another days high mean it is 30% tougher to break as a resistance level? Can we draw that conclusion? Then how far back do you look for previous highs and lows. Will a high from 2 years ago really stop a stock from gaining more? It becomes too difficult to compute.
I like to keep it simple. If the chart doesn't look good easily after looking at it for 30 seconds then it probably won't look that great after 4 hours.
If there is no trading pattern(descending channel, etc.), and I discredit the previous highs and lows because of that, then I look for MA's. I prefer to use the 20, 50, 100, and 200 MA's. Thus, current resistance on TZMT for me is at 1.00 with support at .50 from the 100 and 50 MA's respectively.
Therefore, I don't see the .91-.94 range really being a crucial point to determine if this growth period will continue. For me the true test will be breaking 1.00 considering the 200 MA is at 2.84, along ways away.
NOW, after saying all that, I will say that I do still consider previous highs and lows when looking at resistance. For example, what happens if we have another day where a run is stalled at .79? It will confirm that there is resistance at .79. The same could be said if the stock stalls at the 100 MA of 1.00. The difference I see is that there is no varying degree for the MA. It is not varied by the volume from the past and is seen immediately. Again, previous highs/lows can be seen as varying in strength depending on how long ago they occured and how much volume the stock had that day.
So don't go by MA's alone. Look for patterns.
That was a very long way to say .91-.94 doesn't seem important. I would say breaking .79 and then 1.00 are much more important right now. I only say .79 because that high occured this past week and perhaps the current investors are still able to take profits at that point.
That was really long winded. I apologize. Matt
Posted by BuyTex on :
the chart analysis tonight was sumpin like this:
"two consecutive days above 50-day MA is a good sign...
the BB breakout, obviously encouraging
missed the CCI comments
Slow Stoch suggests 'got some strength'
ADX-Aroon leaning toward another red day...
Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily...could be good if volume increases...say around 800k...If a red day? does need to close above .53, otherwise, it's losing its strength
If it does have a green day? Needs to close above .80 to confirm march toward a dollar"
Matt, am not saying this is gospel, merely providing a third-party opinion, in keeping with your original post--I consider you a fellow "student of the game" ...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Yes I understand that your comments are not meant as gospel. I do appreciate the time you're taking to listen to the show for us. I'm just giving my reasons for where I am finding support/resistance and why.
Just seems to me that setting the .91-.94 range is shooting for the stars right now. I'd prefer the stock didn't run 50% on monday so that the chances of profit taking on tuesday is lessened. It'd turn more into a pump and dump with that volitility IMO.
If we go down to .53 look for a bounce off of it. I'm not expecting that great a dip though.
CCI looks pretty strong to me. Matt
Posted by BuyTex on :
again, I may have taken notes poorly...tonight's peering into the "tea leaves" seemed more reasonable, to me...
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Gotta hold that .53 or else. Hopefully a run off of it the rest of the day.
Posted by permanentjaun on :
Bounced off .53 twice, but did dip to .52. Dissappointing to see it have to confirm support at the 50 MA, but it did seem to halt the drop pretty well.
Look to tomorrow for confirmation of a continued uptrend. Will also be interesting to see what happens if/when the 20 MA crosses the 50 MA with strength.