I am going to try and start my own TA plays every once and a while. My first unofficial call was NWAU which went from ther .07 range to .40 after I called it. You can check my posts. We'll call that one a fluke since it was my first.
I find these plays based on certain criteria which I think are crucial for a stock to run. Im going to release what I think all these plays have in common later after I sit down for a few hours researching.
Anyways, here is my first "official" Matt's TA Play - TZMT
Something to notice is the O/S Outstanding Shares: 997,140 as of 2005-08-23
Let's take a look at the chart
There are a few things I want to point out. The first, and very important, is the MACD. It has been trending up for months; essentially since january. More crucial is that the MACD is as close to zero as it has ever since late October 2005. I believe it is in a much better position to cross that line now. This should create a jump in price by itself.
Another TA tool I like a lot is CMF, aka Chaikin Money Flow. There are several ways to look at the CMF. The first is the trend. Since mid-march it has not dropped significantly into the negative. The trend is overall up.
Another way to look at the CMF is by how long the stock has been in the green. The chart does not show how much longer before october the CMF was in the green, but the stock was declining significantly while the CMF was in a strong green, above .2. This indicates accumulation. So for the past 8 months the stock was in the green under accumulation for 6 months and under distribution for 2 months. The distribution was also minimal because it barely broke -.2. The spike mid-march can be thrown out because the stock experienced a huge price decrease which affects CMF figures.
Another TA tool showing large gains approaching is RSI. Not in those 8 months has the RSI trended up to to its current levels. Looking at a one year chart on bigcharts.com, there have been only three other times the RSI was this high. Two of those times the stock jumped in price dramatically. The other time the stock was not receiving much volume, I throw that time out for consideration as the stock is not trading like it was during that period.
The last TA tool I want to throw out to everyone are the MA lines. TZMT has been above its 20 MA for about 4 days now and just crossed the 50 MA making it support as well. TZMT had tough time in the past crossing the 20 MA, and when it did it was back below it within a day or two. The stock has not crossed above the 50 MA in 8 months as it has today.
Thus, I look to the next MA's for resistance. I use the 100 and 200 day MA's. The 100 MA is at 1.01 and 2.86. So the current price of .70 has plenty of room to grow. Previous high's do not provide much resistance to me as MA's do but if you're wondering they are at .90 and 1.18. There were other previous high's, but just today the stock has rallied EASILY past them.
I wish I would have posted this earlier in the day so I could claim I called it at .55 or so. Oh well. That is my first "official" Matt TA Play. What are everyones thoughts? Matt
Posts: 1504 | Registered: Sep 2004
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Lots of great DD there. I will be tuned into your picks...also would be glad to hear what all of your plays have in common. Thanks!
Posts: 2741 | From: Seattle | Registered: Feb 2005
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Good question, lol. I don't know. This is the popular thread and I am sure I will be finding micro stocks as well. I didn't really consider if the stock was below .1 or not, just to get it out to the most people to get the most criticism. I'd still like to hear from people that disagree with the pick. Matt
Posts: 1504 | Registered: Sep 2004
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TZMT- was called by Simon of Sub Penny Radio. I believe it was Tuesday night's broadcast.
Posts: 1638 | From: Up North | Registered: Jan 2006
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Logical buyer, hope that isn't what is affecting the stock right now and thus a pump and dump, but I will say I do not listen to that show and this did indeed show up on my scans.
Kinda dissappointed I couldn't be the first on this one then. Oh well, maybe next time. I'm still behind this play and my dd though.
What did Simon say about it on the show? Matt
Posts: 1504 | Registered: Sep 2004
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Yea I'm not sure either. I can't give any real answer. I can only hypothesize that profit taking occured since even those entering this morning could have gotten 35-40% profit. Yesterday was still an up day as well so even greater returns are possible. Seems to be holding the upper 60's well though. Matt
EDIT at 2:13 - Seems to recovering a bit too. Ask up to .74
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As of 2/20/06 - 34 million shares outstanding BUT only 1.5 million in the float.
I watched the Local news clip on their website covering the company in florida. They are the first wireless heart monitor system in the world. Supposed to have 24 hour monitoring of the heart to detect peculiarities in heart rhythm to possibly detect heartattacks before they happen. Pretty interesting.
But anyways, chart still looks good to me. Matt
P.S. - If I want to sound like Im on the QBID thread I could say that the company says they're targeting an 81 billion dollar market. Hehe.
Posts: 1504 | Registered: Sep 2004
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ooops, IR guy just goes to Bloomberg and quotes to me from there...I explain my line of inquiry and note my skepticism re "gagged TA," so he quickly agreed to contact the company and get it straightened it...
quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: Matt, Just hit a snag...TA won't give info about share structure...gonna call the company next...
I have been finding several TA's not giving out the info unless the Company sends them an authorization...I don't quite get that...Isn't there some "rule" that you have to file with the Sec if you own more than 5% of the shares? How are you suppose to know if you own %5 if you can't find the info out?
-------------------- #1 Rule: Protect your capital! #2 Rule: Never fall for the BS on the boards! Posts: 8890 | Registered: Jan 2006
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I listen to the Tuesday night show that was replayed Wednesday morning and wrote the stock down.
quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: Matt, I don't remember it from the Tuesday night show, but I do like the chart. Still looking to see what the resistance at HOD was about...
quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: Matt, Just hit a snag...TA won't give info about share structure...gonna call the company next...
I have been finding several TA's not giving out the info unless the Company sends them an authorization...I don't quite get that...Isn't there some "rule" that you have to file with the Sec if you own more than 5% of the shares? How are you suppose to know if you own %5 if you can't find the info out?
Rule of thumb is big "Danger, Will Robinson" when TA can't or won't say; in this case, judging from various reactions, my gut feeling is they've simply got their wires crossed... However, I'm not ready to leave it at that, and simply trust www.Bloomberg et al--not for something I might hold...
posted
I'm afraid to say "the company seems legit" just because it is a penny stock. I did like their website though.
Anyways, I am no longer holding pennies for longer than I have to. Thus, I am not worried about a possible "gagged ta."
I get all the information I need from the charts. Little volume and interest has brought it down for months and increased volume is bringing it back up. I'm not worried, but thats my decision. Of course everyone make your own please. Matt
Posts: 1504 | Registered: Sep 2004
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They analyze the stock automatically just like american bulls. The problem is that computers can't find great stocks. I scan my stocks trying to find the bare minimum that the computer can detect correctly, such as where the MACD line is. Then I'll scan through dozens of stocks using my chart reading skills to determine if the MACD formation is how I want it.
smallcapcenter.com has these two TA figures for tzmt right now:
RSI: Overbought MACD: Bearish
The computer can't dissect a stock like a human can. So for instance, the MACD is below zero still. This usually means the stock is not doing so great. That is why the MACD is bearish on smallcapcenter. What we can deduce is that the MACD is in a strong uptrend and is about to cross zero, which is huge. I expect a large run up when that happens, after that I am unsure right now.
The same goes for the RSI. Above 70 does mean overbought conditions. That is why smallcapcenter has that noted. What we can deduce, at least what I have, is that the RSI has never been this high in 8 months. The last times it was this high it rallied twice.
Also, just look at the trend of the RSI. It still has room to go up, but the trend is showing that people are buying up this stock. That is a good sign in my book. You make your own decision on how you want to read the signals. Matt
Posts: 1504 | Registered: Sep 2004
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quote:Originally posted by vinnie1: iam no expert. tell me what you think?
can't--you posted the url to smallcapcenter's home page...
Suggestion: run your chart at stockcharts.com; be sure and click the little button for "landscape" under the "size" option; once it runs, then click the option for "linkable"; copy n' paste that url.
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I have a buddy I was talking to about this stock. He said he received a fax on Tuesday at his work on TZMT. Now it makes more sense. Someone most likely brought this to Sub Penny's attention, because of a fax they received. Those faxes that are sent out to the masses, will cause pump and dumps for sure.
Posts: 1638 | From: Up North | Registered: Jan 2006
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