posted
Yea...I knew something was up when I saw a million share buy coming in at the ask....big money has been pouring into this stock for the past couple of days....
33% of all consumer goods are affected by natural gas shortage or price increases,paper,food production,chemicals,etc...
$20.00 is the figure now used for natural gas by Christmas
average consumer will be paying at least double utility bills per CNBC
This is amazing for AMEP, they're one of the few companies with speculative potential actually based on concrete assets (purchased land and their own rig) ...
Looks like I'm going to be using the proceeds from this stock to pay my heating bill this winter!
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posted
I wish I had more money, but im still sitting on 140k, so i guess thats okay. But man wish i could have bought more. Everyday I tell myself that i wanna do this day trading stuff, but i just sit on what i have. So hard, lol. But i have only sold a little bit, and the rest i have had since .02-.024. So hope everyone else is making good money out there!!!
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posted
a new league of players are in now imo,this should move up easier and easier the higher it gets imo.Once it breaks out over .10/.12 area we can expect another class of players imo,this is a strong buy and hold and the natural gas issue is going to continue to take up more news space on the TV and the web and all other news outlets.
AP Crude Oil Prices Ease on Product Concern Tuesday September 27, 5:40 pm ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Crude Oil Prices Ease Amid Continued Product Concern As Rita Damage Is Still Being Assessed The loss of natural gas is potentially even more worrisome, analysts said, because disruptions to crude output can be offset by barrels from the rest of the world, plus the government's emergency reserve. There is no such safety valve for natural gas, and the country's ability to import liquefied natural gas is limited.
More than 78 percent of daily natural gas output remains blocked in the Gulf as of Tuesday, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said. The region is the country's main source for the product.
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posted
This is from a post over at rbulls ... hope the person doesn't mind my re-post.
Let me say, tho, they are definitely RAGING over there. That board is much more, uh ... what's the word ... exuberant. Definitely more low-key here, which is fine by me. But there is a large group of folks over there raging over AMEP.
By: tedguice 27 Sep 2005, 06:54 PM EDT Msg. 31133 of 31137 Jump to msg. # Hi all! Just got back from the store and listened to the radio a bit. Pacific Gas and Electric, here on the West coast, is running major ads now stating that natural gas prices could double and, perhaps, even triple this winter....so expect your utility bill to get bigger. They are offering the 'fixed payment program' now so that consumers will not get hit so hard all at once with sky high bills. The spokesperson said it was all do to the hurricanes and unprecedented demand. Let's Drill!!
EOM
So, now utility companies have officially thrown down the gauntlet.
Today Kramer gave the call to buy NG.
NG was up slightly today to $12.65, last * 2:44 EST. An hour lately, after NYMEX closed, the projection on CNBC came for a $20 figure ...
AMEP has pretty much mimicked the NG chart over its last run. If NG explodes tomorrow based on the projections, AMEP probably will as well.
The projected drill date is October 7th. Chances are quite good that AMEP will rise with only slight dips until then ... by then, the price may go through the roof. If the rig becomes operational before then and a PR is released, it could be an early Christmas for everyone.
posted
LOL...thanx for posting teds message,he is a decent and honest poster,we have crossed paths many times over the years on RB.If you post there Akira could you say "HI" from Quest!! I don't post there anymore...just can't bring myself to posting around all that chaos.
Would you mind re-posting that first article on the estimates of the NG stored up in the Barnett Shale ... I can't remember if it was an estimate for AMEP's land, or for the entire area in general ...
We lost a lot of info when that other thread died ...
posted
PRI has increased oil production from the Olmos formation on the 12 test wells by as much as 500% for the month of August. Plans are being implemented to expand the testing area to an additional 25 oil wells in the next 45 days (from 6/2
one well produced in excess of 20 barrels of high gravity oil and 100,000/cubic feet of natural gas. At today's market price of $60.00/barrel for oil and $8.00/mcf of natural gas this would be approximately $1600.00/day or $48,000.00/month or $570,000.00/year gross revenue.
the 500% increase in production from the first 12 wells of the existing 193 well PRI project.
and lets not forget the 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas sitting beneath the land that AMEP already has.
University of North Texas economist Bernard Weinstein says, "The biggest gas play in the entire United States is occurring here." And it’s historic. Chief Oil & Gas President Trevor Rees-Jones calls it "the natural gas equivalent to the giant East Texas oil field." It's called the Barnett Shale-- 30-trillion cubic feet of natural gas trapped 65-hundred feet beneath the surface of more than a dozen North Texas counties.
AMEP is in Pinto also...
In Palo Pinto County a well was completed naturally, for 300 MCFGPD, and 1200 psi, SI, without a frac. This is a major discovery! Nearby, other wells are producing 252 BO plus 701 MCFGPD flowing, with no water! More wells are producing 400-500 BOPD, with 2,000+MCFGPD! It is estimated that the shale in HOOD Co., TEXAS alone has an average hydrocarbon reserve of "One trillion Cubic of Natural Gas every seven square miles"…Phenomenal!
"While sources close to Shell's decision-making process indicate that no decision has been made, there are projections that Chief could command a price of nearly $1.2 billion, or roughly $6,000 per acre" (for Barnett Shale acres)
AMEP has 7,000 prime acres of the Barnett, that also produces Oil. Most Barnett wells only produce NG Natural Gas.
7,000 AMEP acres in the Barnett X $6,000 per acre = $42 Million. Of course Chief has much more production developed and much more equipment and much more infastructure. Point is ...I believe that AMEP leases are undervalued by the markets, and that will change when CB decides to have the company and leases evaluated by an independent Oil & NG engineering firm. ... greeneyedhawk
University of North Texas economist Bernard Weinstein says, "The biggest gas play in the entire United States is occurring here." And it’s historic. Chief Oil & Gas President Trevor Rees-Jones calls it "the natural gas equivalent to the giant East Texas oil field." It's called the Barnett Shale-- 30-trillion cubic feet of natural gas trapped 65-hundred feet beneath the surface of more than a dozen North Texas counties.
AMEP is in Pinto...
In Palo Pinto County a well was completed naturally, for 300 MCFGPD, and 1200 psi, SI, without a frac. This is a major discovery! Nearby, other wells are producing 252 BO plus 701 MCFGPD flowing, with no water! More wells are producing 400-500 BOPD, with 2,000+MCFGPD! It is estimated that the shale in HOOD Co., TEXAS alone has an average hydrocarbon reserve of "One trillion Cubic of Natural Gas every seven square miles"…Phenomenal!
Gathering Plant
The Granbury Texas newspaper reported, "Hood County Texas is building a gas gathering plant to handle 3 trillion cubic feet of gas". This is a $15,000,000 gas plant and only one of several to be built at this time.
don't forget,AMEP is set up for horizontal drilling also
While some independents are creating wells by just drilling straight through the pay, they are missing golden opportunities that new "Horizontal Drilling" can provide.
I plan to drill down to the top of the pay zone ranging from 4,500' to 8,500', then drill 2000' to 5000' horizontal sections to stimulate up to 5 to 10+ times more gas and oil than what a vertical well can produce.
I presently have numerous lease firms, farmers, oil companies, individuals, service companies and many more possible avenues either on board, or poised to enter this monster play.
posted
just got home great day for us white hats wish i was going tobe free in the days but not for a while i will be cheering with all of you soon
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posted
needfastmoney...I guess if we could all make that call on each stock we would all be set.Heres my opinions and I have been involved in AMEP in more then just investing,I DD deeply to say the least.
Some ole school investors have predicted $2 to $3 by next August...I am more conservative and I target at or just over $1.00 by next summer at the latest,not month specific.I also am shooting for .50's by February but may come much sooner.Right now based solely on the companies assets which include quite valuable real estate holdings and also heavy equipment they should be at or near .21 to .25 PPS imo,this does not include any oil/gas or natural gas production numbers.If you take a peek at their current ONG numbers and use todays prices you will get some good figures,there are 25 test wells on one single sight alone,imagine if they announce N gas hits on just a few.Now there is no wait time for a rig which is a major factor and deterant for many ONG companies. All this info is current and until I hear otherwise I will stand by my predictions.In the next few weeks keep an eye on any news channel,see if there are many breaks between natural gas shortage discussions.
posted
KYWEE putting the rest of your pennies you got from GRDX into this. I don't think even if this stock hit 2.00 you would make back 1/4 of what you lost on GRDX... Better take out a student loan..
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posted
guys i have not had the time to dd this stock so thank you quest i just got done with cramer and i tell you he is just screaming natural gas and wo
look what we got a gas co w/some oil and all are talking about shale extraction. i think away we go glta
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I bought at 50000 at .0319. It's tough to say. I've been thinking about selling and buying back on a dip, but right now I'm scared to sell and miss the boat. However, if I didn't own any shares I probably wouldn't buy at this price. I've been burned already by buying a stock at the end of the run. This last run for AMEP was pretty unexpeced for me. I expected it to start to fall after Rita turned out not to be so bad. If I was trying to get in, I'd try to wait for at least a little dip. Maybe we'll have a dip below .06 tomarrow. It's really hard to say right now. The only thing I can suggest is keep an eye on NG futures. This stock seems to be going up when the NG furtures go up.
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posted
J3...the info you request is already posted here probably a few pages back but heres a bit from another poster concerning CNBC.I also believe many will see this that anywhere under a dime will be a deal soon.
By: tedguice 27 Sep 2005, 06:54 PM EDT Msg. 31133 of 31137 Jump to msg. # Hi all! Just got back from the store and listened to the radio a bit. Pacific Gas and Electric, here on the West coast, is running major ads now stating that natural gas prices could double and, perhaps, even triple this winter....so expect your utility bill to get bigger. They are offering the 'fixed payment program' now so that consumers will not get hit so hard all at once with sky high bills. The spokesperson said it was all do to the hurricanes and unprecedented demand. Let's Drill!!
EOM
So, now utility companies have officially thrown down the gauntlet.
Today Kramer gave the call to buy NG.
NG was up slightly today to $12.65, last * 2:44 EST. An hour lately, after NYMEX closed, the projection on CNBC came for a $20 figure ...
AMEP has pretty much mimicked the NG chart over its last run. If NG explodes tomorrow based on the projections, AMEP probably will as well.
The projected drill date is October 7th. Chances are quite good that AMEP will rise with only slight dips until then ... by then, the price may go through the roof. If the rig becomes operational before then and a PR is released, it could be an early Christmas for everyone.
posted
the natural gas issue is quite real and will be under the spotlight more and more each day imo.
Natural Gas: Flameout Ahead? By Mark Morrison SEPTEMBER 27, 2005 Businessweek Online
Depending on the full extent of hurricane damage, ever-higher prices could even turn into shortages -- with dire economic impacts While the preliminary damage report for Gulf Coast refineries indicated all but a few would be able to restore many of their operations within a week, the assessment from offshore Gulf oil and gas production areas looked far more sketchy and will probably take more than a week to fully evaluate.
The reason: Oil-field workers will have to travel back to distant sites by boat or helicopter for inspections. And not until deep-sea divers check out wells and connecting pipelines can energy companies know how much damage Rita truly did.
"EVEN MORE PRECARIOUS." While the final answer will hold great importance for future oil and gas prices, what matters most will be the short-term impact on natural gas production. Americans were already anticipating a wildly expensive winter. Home heating bills in parts of the Midwest, for example, were expected to jump a staggering 70% even before calculating the effect of Rita. Now the price could go even higher.
Some economists are actually warning that outright shortages are possible. Cambridge Research Associates' Mike Zenker raised this specter at the National Association of Business Economists confab held this week in Chicago. As he noted, the outcome will depend on the extent of Rita's damage and the severity of weather in the winter months ahead. But the U.S. is now much more susceptible to shortages because of Rita than it was before, he argues.
"Rita has made a precarious situation even more precarious," says Zenker. "Because of the storms we have probably lost the equivalent supply of at least seven to nine days of gas consumption." That adds up to a scary amount, considering that U.S. industry was already losing some of its competitive ability due to high natural gas prices.
FEEDSTOCK URGENCY. What could happen? When a natural gas shortage occurs, most states give first priority to residential gas users. Commercial customers come next.
Electric utilities that serve both household and industrial customers are a wild card: These power companies have chosen gas as the fuel for almost all their new capacity in recent years and have built little capability to use such energy sources as oil or coal. Industrial concerns -- many of them hooked on clean-burning gas since the 1990s when it was readily available and affordable -- come last in most states.
A curtailment can also affect some companies that urgently need gas not as a source of power but as a feedstock to make products. Without enough gas to operate, some businesses, such as those that make chemicals or fertilizers, will have to suspend production or consider moving more of their production to foreign locations where natural gas costs less than one-tenth the U.S. price -- and where the supply appears more reliable.
LAYOFFS POSSIBLE. Long before Katrina and Rita, the natural gas industry was trying to persuade Washington that the U.S. is hurting itself with policies that encourage a premium resource such as natural gas to be treated as a commodity and burned instead of coal or other alternatives to generate electricity.
In the short term, gas shortages and rationing could lead to an ugly winter of layoffs and lower economic growth. In the long term, the free-for-all market for scarce gas will lead some American companies to outsource yet more of their manufacturing -- and jobs.
posted
Johnny, I bought in at .022, .023, .0236, .0245. Those consumed about 110k, and then i bought in .046 and .05 with about 30 at .046 and 12 and .05. I would say, who knows. This is so hard. Becuase we could end up today at .07 EASY! And then it could drop back down to the mid .05's tomorrow and rise back up, but the way its looking i would lean more toward a straight uprising from here with some dips but nothing over .005 of a drop. It is still safe to get in this stock. Sure the first week might be a little push and nudge. But you wont feel a thing when you see it sitting at .2-.5 in the next 3 months
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posted
Quest you think there will be a news today? Or do you think yesterday was based solely on NG prices. I sure hope it was because if there was no leak, whenever the PR comes out, well dang this thing wil be soaring.
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The projections for a $20 NG figure are in line with the fear that NG prices will increase by over 70% this winter. This figure was calculated when NG was around $12.
From MSN Money today concerning oil rigs:
September 28, 2005 08:11 AM ET Rita causes record damage to oil rigs Financial Times All Financial Times News
Hurricane Rita has caused more damage to oil rigs than any other storm in history and will force companies to delay drilling for oil in the US and as far away as the Middle East, initial damage assessments show.
Oil prices eased on Wednesday over concerns that demand for crude would be hit by the continued shutdown of refineries. US crude fell 27 cents to $64.80 a barrel by 06:444 GMT after losing 75 cents on Tuesday.
ODS-Petrodata, which provides market intelligence to the offshore oil and natural gas industry, said it expected a shortage of rigs in the US Gulf this year.
"Based on what we have right now, it appears that drilling contractors and rig owners took a big hit from Rita," said Tom Marsh of ODS-Petrodata. "The path Katrina took was through the mature areas of the US Gulf where there are mainly oil [production] platforms. Rita came to the west where there is a lot of [exploratory] rig activity."
Ken Sill of Credit Suisse First Boston said: "Early reports indicate numerous rigs are missing, destroyed or have suffered serious damage and several companies have yet to report. Rita may set an all-time record."
The US Coast Guard said nine semisubmersible rigs had broken free from their moorings and were adrift.
This damage could not have come at a worse time for oil companies and consumers. US crude futures on Monday fell 37 cents to $65.45 a barrel in midday trading in New York as refineries that were evacuated before the onset of Rita returned to operation.
Earlier in the day, Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said the market had not taken up the 2m barrels a day of spare capacity the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offered last week. Speaking in Johannesburg, he blamed high oil prices on a lack of industry infrastructure, including rigs and refineries, rather than oil reserves. Rigs, which are movable and are used for exploration and development, were in short supply before hurricanes Katrina and Rita blew through the US Gulf in late August and September.
High oil prices and the desperate search for new oil supplies needed to meet rampant demand from the US and China have made rigs difficult to find and expensive to hire. Rigs cost $90m-$550m to construct, depending on how sophisticated the structure and how deep the water in which it will drill. A rig ordered today is unlikely to be ready before 2008 or 2009, analysts said.
As a sign of just how precious rigs are becoming to the market, Anadarko, the biggest US independent oil company, this week set a record by committing to a rig six years in advance; commitments in the past were made months ahead of time rather than years.
Initial reports from companies are ominous. Global Santa Fe reported it could not find two of its rigs. Rowan Companies reported four rigs damaged, with two having moved, one losing its "legs" and the fourth presumed sunk. Noble has four rigs adrift, with two run aground one into a ChevronTexaco platform
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