posted
Here is what I did today, maybe it will help you. I've been struggling with indecision all day, which is rare. I know(in my heart) the natrual gas play will be profitable this winter, but the past few days have shaken that confiedence slightly. I had 58,000 plus shares. Yesterday I sold at .08. Today I sold 25750 shares at .07 to protect myself, these shares averaged at .0435. I have 17102 shares remaining, these average at .0234. I plan on holding. If things get really bad I sell at .048 and double my money. I would IMO protect your money first and if you have a volume of shares that average low hold and see. I tend to belive the usall september-lack-o-confiedence we see every year is carring through Oct. This has been a wierd year, with the hurricanes, but the winter is predicted to be harsh and cold. Good for NG and heating oil. SO IMO IF YOU CAN AND FEEL COMFORTABLE HOLD A LITTLE. TIMES LIKE THIS REASSERT THE FACT THAT IN PENNIES YOU HAVE TO GET YOUR PRINCIPLE INVESTMENT BACK AND PLAY WITH FREE CASH.
Posts: 43 | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
According to the yahoo the volume is 452.857. Can I assume that in english that means 452,857?
Posts: 117 | From: Indiana | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
imakmony2005 --- I've been reading this board for almost a year now (yes I am a free loader only because I am NOT a professional investor or broker). I feel guilty because I never post and just read everyone's DD and then do my own privately. Please don't take anything I say literally! And I believe everyone should do their own DD before investing. I probably know less than anyone else on this board! But I will make sure I post any DD about AMEP or any further conversations I have with Charles Bitters.
Posts: 46 | From: Los Angeles | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
pps has come down a bit im now looking for a new enrty point amep is a great company and will make money, alot of the pps decline has to do with oil inventories rising.this is a short term problem as we all know winter is on it way and inventories will be depleated. oil imho is going to 80 per bbl this year ng prices will almost double.amep is the right company at the right time it would be nice to hear about how their drilling rig is working out and how soon they will their first hole compleated.that news will push amep to new highs good luck all
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
no doubt AMEP will do very well near term watching tic by tic will get frustrating for some,I have always postedmt projections and goals and time frames up thru next year but more importantly this winter for mid term plays.
posted
Alright, thanks everyone. I'm going to try buying more at 54 (which is around my current average). See if that sell takes this week or not. As long as the going rate doesn't drop below 49 I'll be happy to hold all the AMEP I have for the long haul (or at least until mid-Winter, eh?).
Posts: 249 | From: NYC | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by Lucas Brachish: Alright, thanks everyone. I'm going to try buying more at 54 (which is around my current average). See if that sell takes this week or not. As long as the going rate doesn't drop below 49 I'll be happy to hold all the AMEP I have for the long haul (or at least mid-Winter, eh?).
jmho but the chart says its not ready to keep buying
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
you think I should wait? What's your rough estimate for a new entry? I'm seeing the possibility of a slight rise from this point on, so thought I should try to get more while I can... but I'm not as experienced as you, so if you think there's a lower number to buy in at I'll listen.
Posts: 249 | From: NYC | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
the way things are going, we're heading for the 20 day SMA around .05 level. MACD's, OBV, and stoch's all heading south. Wouldn't be surprised if we hit back to .045 level
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
i really could say for sure but right now the pps imo is too unstable in the last four days the CCI(20) has droped from 220 too 43 and hasnt shown much in the way of support i am waiting for the CCI indicator to go over 100 again at the moment people are seeing red in their accounts and just cant handle that so they sell this causes the CCI to drop further hence even more un stable my motto cash in hand is better then chasing a stock to the bottom if you are going to average down wait till it gets to a support line
again this is just my opinion but i would rather miss a trade then make a bad one
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
sorry i meant to say i really couldnt say for sure i think that i need a proof reader,....lol good luck
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by special ed: the way things are going, we're heading for the 20 day SMA around .05 level. MACD's, OBV, and stoch's all heading south. Wouldn't be surprised if we hit back to .045 level
imho that is where i am looking to for the next support line
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by special ed: the way things are going, we're heading for the 20 day SMA around .05 level. MACD's, OBV, and stoch's all heading south. Wouldn't be surprised if we hit back to .045 level
imho that is where i am looking to for the next support line
if not, watch out....this could get ugly short term.
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
if this goes past that it load up and make money this is a great company that will make alot of money this winter imho the last run was just the begining
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
quest could you do me a favor and post your valuation on amep i beleive your numbers on the land and other assets was very accurate and i think some would enjoy seeing good news today, bmax,:-)
Posts: 629 | From: new england | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
when did you buy in? and are you going long or short on it? that should make your decision easy....
like bmaxin' said, cash in hand always better so take profits if you can. you can always buy back in.
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
off topic-I told you all I would give you any pick that I see as viable and at a low for entry,this is not in the ONG sector but the Bio sector and looks great thru the DD process.
GREAT bio play under .05 so far,look at the chart history,this is a all time low pretty much and watching the news on the Avian flu I think many bio's are getting jiggy soon.The Company had 37,561,205 shares of common stock issued and outstanding, of which 21,772,737 were held by non-affiliates.
About CalbaTech
CalbaTech is focused on developing and providing products and platforms to the research market, both for biotech and pharmaceutical companies, as well as academic institutions. In addition to growth through acquisition, CalbaTech, comprised of three divisions, Molecular Applications, Research Reagents, and Cellular Therapeutics, is building an experienced and innovative scientific staff, including several notable members of its Scientific Advisory Board, that intend to contribute innovation in areas of biological discovery.
Contact: Paul Knopick (949) 707-5365 pknopick*eandecommunications.com
for you chart specialist,check out this 3 year chart....does this have recovery spike all over it or what!
posted
Bmax, special ed, Quest, etc... thank you for all the numbers. It's always great when people on the boards are willing to give worst-case scenarios and recommend waiting for lower buy-in points, and don't just pump everyone to buy in immediately. Your advice is much appreciated, as usual.
Posts: 249 | From: NYC | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example. Posts: 2430 | From: CA | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged |
THE STEM-CELL LEGISLATION that has sparked controversy in Washington and rekindled the debate about when life begins also presents a puzzle to investors. Put your money in a company that could benefit from additional federal funding, and you run the risk of President Bush fulfilling his promise to veto any bill that would finance the related research. But sit this one out, and the legislation could eventually push through in one form or another, allowing public companies that conduct such research to capitalize on the government's deep coffers. What's a biotech investor to do? The answer may be to toe the line between the controversial and the ground-breaking. By investing in companies that conduct stem-cell research not involving contentious embryonic stem cells, investors can hedge their bets, taking advantage of the added attention to the field while relying on a more conventional capital model: One that doesn't depend on the president's signature.
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) is such a company. It's conducting adult stem-cell research that doesn't require the destruction of the human embryo, thus insulating itself from the debates over which research deserves federal funding. Perhaps more importantly to investors, the 14-year-old company has begun to make progress on commercial products and has successfully treated patients with at least one of them in midstage clinical trials. Although these aren't the miracle cures for paralysis or Alzheimer's disease that many expected stem-cell research to deliver most scientists agree treatments for those conditions will require embryonic stem cells Aastrom has come up with some promising solutions for lesser maladies such as bone fractures and vascular damage.
With no drugs on the market yet and approvals from the Food and Drug Administration still likely years away revenues remain scarce. For its fiscal third quarter ended March 31, Aastrom pulled in just $252,000 from grants and sales of therapy kits to other researchers. The company's loss for the period added up to $3.3 million, or three cents a share. At quarter's end the company was sitting on $35.4 million in cash and short-term investments.
SmartMoney.com sat down with Aastrom Chief Executive Doug Armstrong to discuss how the company got started, what its products may soon do for patients, how its fundamentals measure up to its peers', and what in blazes its name means. Here's what he had to say.
SmartMoney.com: How did the company get started and become involved in stem-cell research?
Doug Armstrong: A team at the University of Michigan had developed an approach to be able to take a small amount of human tissue, particularly human bone marrow, and to culture it outside of the body so that it would grow in a normal way. And as part of that process, the stem cells that are found in bone marrow would replicate and grow as well. And that was pretty unique because there were a host of companies, even in the early '90s, that were trying to figure out how to grow stem cells found in the body, and there were a variety of approaches taken. Out of all of those companies in the '90s... we're the only ones with our doors open. They all shut down. And that was, I believe, fundamentally because the approach that was in that founding technology worked. In other words, it actually allowed us to grow these normal human cells and produce them in a way that they retained their functionality as tissue-forming cells, so that when you put them back into patients, they would function. They would form tissue. In all the other approaches that were employed where cells were put back into patients, they didn't grow tissues.
That's an interesting perspective which serves to illustrate a couple things. One is, it's not easy to grow these normal cells and have them retain their functionality when you want to use them for a therapeutic reason. And secondly, it's why stem cells from bone marrow got such a bad name because there were all of these failures in trying to be able to access them, grow them and then utilize them clinically.
SM: Where do you get the stem cells that you use for patient treatments?
DA: They all come from the patient. Now, they could be regulated by the FDA and by EMEA in Europe as drug. They're biologics biologic drugs so they will have approvals. They will have labeling. They will have reimbursement codes all of those things identical to drugs. There's one big difference, and that's the manufacturing, and this has been a real barrier to entry for many groups. It comes down to this: Usually if you're going to treat 100,000 patients with a drug, one lot of drug is manufactured and put in 100,000 vials and shipped out. In our case, we have 100,000 manufacturing runs, not one, because every manufacturing run is patient-specific.
We have worked hard to have a fully automated manufacturing process. And with that automation, we've built into modularity, so that we can go anywhere in the world right now and do pilot manufacturing locations for trials. Then, as we go into larger trials, and then into commercialization, manufacturing will actually be brought back into centralized manufacturing facilities, where we'll have the same platform automation technology.
So, the process works where the physician would write a prescription for cells. When the patient is going around for the blood test and the urine test and things like that, a small amount of marrow would be aspirated in an outpatient procedure [and] dropped in a shipping container that goes right to the manufacturing facility. The manufacturing facility provides it back to the hospital pharmacy, and it's available at that hospital when it needs to be used by the patient.
Part of the difficulty in seeing the vision is that there are certain things that aren't done today that will be done when this becomes a product. It's just like the central labs for pulling blood. In the old days, each physician did it. Now, they just go to a lab. That would just be part of our business either integrating one of those labs or clinics, or we would hope to work with hospitals to help expand that need. So, there are certain things that are new here. You can't just plug-and-play.
SM: How long does that process take?
DA: It's a 12-day process. We have over the years worked it out so that it is the same process for every patient, and we have worked out the procedure so that every patient will have the product. That's been another big, big hurdle in our field, is how do you productize these cells? It's one thing to show that you have cells that can in a laboratory do this or that or have the capability to perform in a certain way. It's a whole other thing to turn that into a standard medical product that's going to be used for patients all over the world. And that's been a very difficult hurdle to clear for many groups, and it was for us early on, but we've had a number of years to be able to work that out. And part of that hurdle is that if it's going to be like a drug in other words, a physician can write a prescription for it and the patient's going to get a reliable treatment that drug's got to be there every time they write the prescription. So, that means the manufacturing process for the cells has to be very reliable. The cells that come out of that manufacturing process have to be very reliable in their numbers, in their function. It's no good if you get a million cells for one patient and a billion cells for another patient.
SM: So what's your estimate for an annual patient population for the bone-fracture treatment?
DA: For the fractures, we think the segment that's available to us is about 175,000 to 250,000. The number of fractures, of course, is much higher than that. This is the area of severe fractures that would be candidates for our indication. And the market for spine applications is approximately 400,000.
SM: And vasculature? DA: The patients in the United States that go to amputation are in the 200,000 to 250,000 range. The patients who are at the stage of getting these interventional procedures to hopefully stem that tide are more in the 500,000 range. And then you go to European and Japanese markets that's a big, big market, and there is no effective therapeutic there...
There's been a series of clinical trials that have come out that show that if you take about a quart of bone marrow, concentrate it and inject it into that tissue, it can stimulate and regenerate that vascular tissue. And the link for us is that we've been able to show that we can effectively substitute for large volumes of bone marrow. So, that's partially the drive to be able to move into this indication.
SM: So, it seems as if embryonic stem cells would have no particular place in your business model.
DA: Yeah, our focus is on products and being in the clinic and starting to generate revenue. And we have our hands full with what we have in-house. We are very interested in what's happening in that area, of course, particularly with any research that begins to provide what's called effective instruction to the cells that can be a benefit to a tissue. As I was mentioning earlier, there are certain tissues that aren't normally replaced everyday in our bodies, like nerves. So, there needs to be some additional biology, I think, to help effectively solve that problem. And if some of that additional biology can be identified through the embryonic stem-cell work, we would immediately apply that to our own stem cells.
With bone marrow stem cells, there's a big difference here, in that you can't isolate, purify and put bone marrow stem cells in front of you. There are too few. No one's been able to do that. Our Tissue Repair Cells they're not pure stem cells are a real mixture of cells. If you destroy the integrity of that, you can't grow the stem cells anymore. Embryonic stem cells are different. They're pure. If you want to do research as a biologist, that's just what you need. They're all right there. They're pure. They're all the same. You can actually do research that you can't do with bone marrow stem cells. But it doesn't mean that some of the things you learn can't be applicable. So, we're very interested in seeing what is learned, so we can then apply it to our cells.
But do we see anything going into the clinics soon there? No. I think you're going to hear and will see the anecdotal amazing story come out, which is going to be good. But even from that point, getting to something that's going to be productized is going to take a while.
SM: Where did the company get its name?
DA: The company, Aastrom, is in Ann Arbor, Mich. The A-A is for Ann Arbor; the S-T-R-O-M is for stromal cell. It's a key part of the early and current technology. The company began operations in 1991. We'll call it an old-style biotech spinoff out of the University of Michigan with venture-capital backing and a pretty traditional format. The lead investors at that time actually brought me to lead the company, so I've been with the company since 1991, a pretty long stint. A very long stint. It was supposed to be two years. It didn't work out that way.
SM: There's been a lot of press recently about Big Pharma absorbing or collaborating with smaller-cap biotechs to augment their thinning pipelines. Is Aastrom is a good candidate for that kind of relationship?
DA: Pharma has not been active in the cell-therapy area because that's not what they do. That stated, they also haven't been engaged because of a lot of the failures that have occurred with cells over the past 10 years. They are waiting for, I think, unequivocal clinical results to show that these results work and a business model to show that they can make money. Those are our objectives. With that, we think partnering will begin to unfold in a more positive way. Part of our business model is to pursue at least marketing partners for the different indications of use.
SM: What about the reverse relationship, taking a smaller company on? DA: We have such a long list of applications ourselves, we probably would not be looking for someone who has a new application. What we might be looking for is someone that adds either critical mass or a related application in the marketplace, someone that could be otherwise supportive or synergistic with what we're doing. If our market cap continues to grow, we will put that capital to work and look to bring in additional components that would allow us to the either get to market sooner or in a larger way.
SM: Thomson First Call projects negative earnings per share for Aastrom into 2006. Can you account for those numbers, or do they concern you?
DA: Yes, and I think it's fine. We'll be investing in our clinical activities and research activities for a few years. Investors should look for value in the company, not from our revenues, but from definable clinical results from our clinical trials. Even though we're only spending money and raising money, we've shown steady growth in our market cap and in our share price, and we will continue that model for the next couple years. In May of 2003, we had a market cap of $24 million and share price of approximately 40 cents. So, this year, at the end of May, our share price was over $2.20, and our market cap was over $225 million.
SM: Why else should someone invest in Aastrom?
DA: I think it comes down to a couple of pretty important, basic things. One is this is a company that's not focused on cool technology. It's focused on cool products. The products are now in the clinic in trials. There should be a continuous flow of clinical milestones coming out of this company from now until we get into revenues. And, talking about tissue regeneration, you either grow tissue or you don't. So, you're not running a 200,000-patient trial to get a statistic like a 10% difference in five-year survivals. We're really looking at pretty definitive, early-term types of indicators to show that things are working.
News flow will be pretty continuous out of these clinical pathways. So, there should be, we think, the opportunity to value growth in measurable ways. You're also going to be able to begin to track, with each month that goes by as we work through this process, the real timeline until revenues will be there, where they're going to come from and how that's going to work out. The business model will begin to firm up with announceable events. One of our milestones for the next six months is to establish our first pilot commercial manufacturing facility in Europe.
So, we've already mitigated a lot of the technology risk for the investor. The cells are safe when we put them in patients. We know that they can generate healthy, normal tissue. We know that they're functional. So, it really comes down to what's the specific indication, the product, and when do we get to revenue. And that's what you can begin to track with this company. In the space, there's no one else close to being able to have that type of story
posted
Well we closed at .062 which is slightly higher then I thought. I am holding on to see what tomorrow brings. WIll this stock continue to slowly dry up or will we be able to watch it grow. WInter is already starting for some.
-------------------- Lookin for the money Posts: 353 | From: CA | Registered: Apr 2005
| IP: Logged |
-------------------- Know why it is so windy in Oklahoma? 'cause Texas sucks and Kansas blows! Posts: 110 | From: Oklahoma | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
just got back in,seems I missed 2 calls from the southwest...LOL....yeah Texas...I'll let ya'll kow what is said if I can reach them back!!
OT--did anyone try to buy CLBE? I only got several partials up to .049, see how hard buying low floaters are! they move quick though once they start.I contacted a friend to let him in on this but he already took a position yesterday,figured I would return the favor since he turned me on to BIPH at .09,I tried giving him AMEP at .013's but he only plays the Biotechs!!! I told his butt to step out of the box for once...I know he regrets it now I bet!
posted
Here's my email response from Joe Christopher re: Berlin Exchange Cathy:
We have had several investors inquire this morning about the impact the Berlin exchange has had on our stock. We have requested in the past to be de-listed on that exchange. They have not responded. In reality there is not really much that we can do.
The real question is how much trading is taking place on the Berlin exchange? This morning when we had traded over 14 million shares only 116 thousand had traded on that exchange.
I believe the real problem lies with our own stockholders who bought recently in the quick run up. They didnt have a real understand on the company. They were only buying because a computer program drew their attention to it due to price movement, volume and momentum. They are now selling for the same reason. The heard mentality is rarely right.
My advice, as always, is to put your AMEP stock into a nice clean envelope and slip it between your mattresses.
Take it out in a year and I believe you will be pleasantly surprised.
If you have any questions please call me at (800) 417-3670 Joe Christopher
Posts: 26 | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
Hi everyone, just found you guys today and I am very grateful to all of you who really stick to the numbers and share all this valuable information.
I just got into AMEP today at .066.. we closed below that and was wanting to see if this was a good play and if any of you think this will make another run?
posted
inVasion, I don't know if this will make another "run" but I am confidant that it will slowly keep climbing for months if not years to come.
OT- Quest, yes, I was able to get my fill on CLBE... however, I did not want to mess with it so I simply bought on the ask.
Posts: 157 | From: IL | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by emonkey0015: what kind of music do you spin Special Ed
OT: depends on the venue or type of event. at the bars and clubs, I typically spin funk, rnb, hiphop, and 80's....apparently the name for it now is called mash-up. for corporate events where the clientele can be much older, I'll throw more 50's-70's in the mix. I'll also spin house (and it's other sub-genres) however the house scene in san francisco has significantly died down so not much money/demand for those types of gigs.....
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
Bmax...now why is that? all financials are in order and all filings in line along with many other DD factors,look at the 3 year chart and see where this one is used to riding for a long time.
UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!
Printer-friendly view of this topic
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
