posted
I see what your saying about the weekly charts, but this here is swing trading we don't usually (well I don't use) weekly charts because they are too slow for swing trading. I'm looking for a good 5-10% gain and I'm gone. You might be right about those stocks over the next month or two, but for the rest of this week at least I see all those stocks gaining not decling. All the ones you mentioned actually look like good possible swing trades not short sells. I know the market looks bad right now, but it doesn't mean there can't still be some money made playing longs. I'm just cutting down my holding period to help protect against losses. GLTA!!
IP: Logged |
posted
My 'swings' are usually longer term...maybe 'parameter' trading is more appropriate a term. I look at 10% as not worth the time. Grinding away for 5-10% is not really 'swing' trading to my mind.
And I agree on playing some longs...when they exhibit movement (or at least no loss) against a strong downtrend. I don't see that here. The occasional move counter to trend? Sure...but I'm not working from a DAT or other superior platform right now, so I'll stay away. Oh,and the 'ribbons' have to be wide to interest me.
Ya gotta love the fractal composition of the market!
-------------------- Taking profit may not always be right, but its never wrong.
IP: Logged |
posted
I have backtested a lot of different swing trading programs and found that all of them benefit more by getting your money in and out quickly. It allows you to make more plays, which gives you the possiblitly of getting big winners that run the day you buy or the next day or two. It also, cuts down on the losses by getting you out of a stock that has turned around on you without you having to look at the charts and make the decision yourself.
I don't play with huge sums of money either, so its easy to get my $10k in and out. If your playing w/$50k+ then I can understand your theory more.
To each their own, we must all do what works best for us. I hope in a year or so, I will have the problem of investing a little more long term w/more money. I think I will still always keep $20k or so, for short term flips. I feel there is much more security in only holding on to a stock short term. This way you can decrease the risk of the whole market heading south and killing your big wallet, or the stock receiving sour news and taking a big chunk out of your wallet.
O yeah and the main reason I don't like long term plays (I DON'T TRUST COMPANIES!) Too much manipulation to me. I would be having some ppls asses if I held on to Enron or Worldcom. Even look at big stocks that make billions in profits. In the longrun the stocks stay flat. ie Msft, Intl, etc. I know your going to point out goog, as well you should, but give it a few years and it will flatten out as well.
The program I'm playing right now was backtested back to 02 5 years ago. It only holds on to the stock for 1 day after I buy it. In those 5 years it took $1000 and turned it into $116,273. Thats not one flook year or trade either. 02-04 it made 317%, 04-06 it made 795%, and 06-now it made 462%. So, short term systems can work. Yes you will pay more in taxes and fees for trading, but this system isn't crazy. It only made at most 54 trades in 2 years, which is roughly $1000 in fees. If you started with $10,000 in 02 by 04 you would have $26500 after taxes. I don't know many longterm stocks that will gain 165% in two years after taxes. Keep in mind this was the weakest of all 5 years as 02 was horrible for the market which is what gave lower numbers. Yet this system still prospered in a weak market.
IP: Logged |
posted
cbrx has been swinging and cort is trying to get there slowly both have good potential keep an eye on it. I loaded up on cbrx on the low side already as it has been bouncong the past few days
IP: Logged |
posted
Mystic...I began with 2k. And I don't often hold for years (especially in the pennies). I move in and out of issues just as I move in and out of sectors. I select all issues based on nothing more than technicals and float size. If a promising momo play offers itself in the majors, then I'll ride that wave either way. This is hardly 'buy and hold' stuff. Using red light/green light on longer term holds allows me to increase number of shares...and easily mitigate risk. Your right not to trust anyone...
Note, I did not say your system was poor or that it lacked results...we both know the power of multiple small gains. You are, no doubt, either incorporated or using a holding company structure to mitigate your capital gains exposure...perhaps you are trading from a Roth or other tax advantaged structure. Regardless, my system works for me as yours does for you. Just said it wasn't my cup of tea.
And I would never invest in anything like goog or any other 'status stock'...just to keep the record straight. I like the styles and indicators of zweig and schwartz (and even Gann) and my own mutations of said keep me out of trouble. What the indicators miss, my stops catch. :~)
KEGYF may have some upside near term and potential longer term, now that we have a selling climax. What say you?
-------------------- Taking profit may not always be right, but its never wrong.
IP: Logged |
posted
Unfortunetly, I'm not able to get away from the capital gains. I'm a college student w/no income right now. I'm going to have to wait and see how hard they hit me w/taxes. I'm working on my real estate license and then maybe my brokers, so I could trade under that I think. I will definetly have to find a loop hole if I start making some serious cash. But, if I make $10k I'm not too upset about giving them $2500 if I have to since its money I didn't really work for anyways.
As for KEGYF, I can't even find a chart on it.
IP: Logged |
Also...if you would rather retire in your thirties and quite well off, don't be so cavalier about the tax bite. You have holdings and are generating a profit from said. You have 'income' according to the IRS. It may or may not be deferred, but its there. Calculate the slippage from excess taxation and then the lost trading income on top of it...pretty soon you're talking real money.
For a few hundred dollars in good advice from an accountant and/or tax lawyer who represents 'mark to market traders' and the like, you'd get from 'A to Z' one hell of a lot faster. Don't be penny wise and pound foolish. Been there, done that.
PS: You are 'working' for it...you're just being smarter in how you are demanding to be paid.
-------------------- Taking profit may not always be right, but its never wrong.
IP: Logged |
posted
bb - because I trade the technicals only, but this popped up on one of my scans at having a p/e of high 7's/low 8's and yearonyear earnings percent was astronomical...so throwing some money at it here was acceptable for my risk to return parameters.
-------------------- Taking profit may not always be right, but its never wrong.
IP: Logged |
posted
I have etrade and was using their power trade platform or something, but now I'm not using anything b/c I didn't make enough trades last quarter to get the platform for free. I actually like trading w/o it as weird as it sounds. When I had the streaming platform I would always find reasons to wait to buy in either the l2's didn't look good enough or the chart wasn't right. Now I look at just the chart and decide when to enter and exit. I somehow managed to make 3% off SVR. I bought at $10.30 and sold at $10.60 this morning. I think for daytrading or trading pennies you need l2's and such, but for swing trading it really slowed me down. What about you?
IP: Logged |
posted
I'm between platforms right now. Just using free trials while I evaluate a couple. Leaning towards ThinkorSwim unless I decide to take the plunge and use a DAT. Their backbone is based on the prophet.net system, and most tech indicators can be manipulated...which I like. I'm still evaluating and then will only open an account to evaluate execution speed and their willingness to play between the bid/ask.
-------------------- Taking profit may not always be right, but its never wrong.
IP: Logged |
posted
PMCL---terribly undervalued,great volume lately CBAY---movements lately also DESC. took me a lot of time to find these gems x me. but like always make your own DD and luck.
quote:Originally posted by terence: PMCL---terribly undervalued,great volume lately CBAY---movements lately also DESC. took me a lot of time to find these gems x me. but like always make your own DD and luck.
Your 3 picks are Day Traders. Its ok to posty them once in a while but don't get carried away. I'm assuming you were attracted to them because of the surge in VOLUME the past few days. However, that doesn't make it a good stock to play.....only a quick play (1 day or less).
I jumped in DROOY today at $0.6121. See where it goes. I'm also debation on getting in MCEL for a long play. I'm also considering F if it drops down a bit more.
IP: Logged |
posted
Hey M1 - F looks like its trying to touch again in the high 6's. Like you, I'd like to see that (at minimum) to interest me. Then we get to see which way the weather vane moves.
MCEL's barking, but no fear of the bottome yet. I'll wait for a new low and then see if Cramer pumps it. :~)
DROOY looks like a gap fill at this point to me.
-------------------- Taking profit may not always be right, but its never wrong.
IP: Logged |
posted
I think I'm going to give up on the swing trades right now. I've been paper trading since the market fell (thank god) it just seems like most swing trades aren't rebounding at all right now. I began paper trading option puts (until my acc gets upgraded to let me trade them), but I have been doing extremely well with them so far. On monday I picked up LFC April $40 puts * $1.20 which are now trading at $2.65 a gain of 120%, LRCX June $45 puts for $3.10 which are now trading $3.80 a gain of 22.6%, ODP April $35 puts * $1.35 which are now trading for $2.15 a gain of 59%, and also HBC June $90 puts for $4.60 which are now going for $5.30 a gain of 15%. (I should have bought the $85 puts though on HBC the $90's were too far in the money already.
The reason I decided to play put options is mainly because the market is down and its too hard to swim upstream. So, first I thought about shorting stocks, but I don't like the idea of losing more money than I have in my account. By buying the put options I'm still playing stocks short, but I can't lose more than I have in the stock and that I like. I will hopefully, be trading them by the end of next week. If anyone wants to trade them with me let me know and I'll post my picks.
IP: Logged |
posted
I am ver interested in your idea like I have said before. Its new territory for me of course but I want to learn. I have Yahoo Messanger and my name on there is YZF_R1_MAN so if any of you have it. Add me. I think this would be a good way to learn from one another and perfect our skills. I will be on layoff Friday for 3 weeks so lots of time to learn. Post back if any of you are interested in this......or PM me. I agree with you Mystic.........the market is crazy right now and my judgement isn't working in my favor right now. For instance........I had around $25,000 in CMGI at $1.05 a share. I sold it for a good profit but look at the price now........$1.80. I would of had a gain around $18,000 but I wanted to make other trades. There has been other decissions I have made that sucked but its all good. Well, let me know what you all want to do and if you don't have Yahoo_Messanger. Go to Yahoo and check it out. Its 100% free and has a bunch of great PERKS. Well, I'm off to bed.
IP: Logged |
posted
Keep an eye on SCON for a few days of swings. I made out ok this past week on all my picks but got a feeling on this one. I am also waiting for GBRC to tank very quickly before i get back into it.
IP: Logged |
posted
SCON is in a tough place right now. You really need to watch which way the momo goes because it could start to come back up real quick or drop down to $1.30 easily. I will wait and watch for the $1.30 drop before I consider it. Everyone becareful this week I think the market as a whole is going to make another big move down this week. Going to be hard to make money, so trade smart!
If you can I would play shorts and puts til the end of april. The last few years on the weekly charts it took the market til the end of april to make a move back up. GLTA!
IP: Logged |
posted
FDX is a solid company paying a small Dividend but that is ok. They have a 1 year target of $128.07. I would say its a safe bet but I would only ride it to $120. $111.14 currently. I wouldn't buy it before the 21st. The motley fool is betting on 7 quarters straight of above expectations for earnings. I think they said $1.33 a share or better.
IP: Logged |
posted
Well, as you all know by now I'm not a morning person and I missed out on some gainers I picked because my lazy butt didn't wake up again. Hope some people listened to my picks as they were all good gainers today. Even some of my watchers did well. Wish I could pick that well everyday!!! GLTA!
IP: Logged |
Topic Closed
UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!
Printer-friendly view of this topic
