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Ernesto To Target Florida and Southeastern U.S.By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Chris Stachelski
(State College, PA) - Tropical Storm Ernesto will target Cuba today before heading northward toward Florida and the southeastern United States as the week progresses.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Ernesto was located about 45 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. Ernesto was moving to the northwest near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
On Sunday, Ernesto became the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season with maximum sustained winds reaching 75 mph. However, after moving over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon. Ernesto has since moved back over water and this, combined with light winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, should allow Ernesto to at least maintain its strength, if not even intensify slightly, before making landfall in southeastern Cuba by later this morning as a tropical storm. Ernesto will then head northwest across the central portion of the island or very close to the northern coast of Cuba later today before emerging back into the water Tuesday. Just how much Ernesto weakens today will be determined by how long the storm stays over land.
Across Cuba, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected from Ernesto. The heavy rain will lead to a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. Tides 4 to 6 feet above normal will pound the southern coast of the island. Hurricane warnings are in effect for central and eastern Cuba. The southern coast of Haiti remains under a hurricane warning where at least 6 to 12 inches of rain can fall. Flash flooding and mudslides will also be a concern here.
Hurricane watches have been posted for the South Florida mainland from Deerfield Beach on the east coast to Chokoloskee on the west coast. In addition, hurricane watches have also been posted for the entire length of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.
A hurricane watch has also been posted for Andros Island in the Bahamas. In addition, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the Central Bahamas.
Once Ernesto emerges from Cuba, it will begin to turn more toward the north as it moves around the edge of an area of high pressure located east of Jacksonville, Fla., in the midlevels of the atmosphere and also begins to be picked up by an approaching upper-level trough digging into the Mississippi River Valley. This will take Ernesto to or very near South Florida by late Tuesday. Just how much the midlevel ridge of high pressure weakens will determine just how far east or west Ernesto tracks when it gets toward South Florida. Although the best case scenario now still favors a track northward across the Florida Peninsula, there is also the potential for Ernesto to pass just along or just off the east coast of Florida.
Ernesto's intensity at its approach to South Florida is also highly dependent on just how much time it spends over Cuba. The quicker Ernesto can get back into water, the stronger it will likely be when it arrives near South Florida. Ernesto will move over very warm waters as well and will be in an area where the upper-level winds are light and favorable for further development; therefore, t is not unreasonable for Ernesto to become a hurricane by the time it makes a landfall or is near the coast of South Florida.
The fringe effects of Ernesto will be felt in South Florida by early Tuesday with conditions rapidly deteriorating as the day progresses as the outer squalls of Ernesto work northward. Strong winds and heavy bands of rain will be the main threat and even an isolated tornado or waterspout is possible. Rough surf will also pound the coast, especially in the Keys and along the southeast Florida coast, bringing the threats of storm surge and beach erosion.
As time progresses, the effects of Ernesto will work northward into central and northeast Florida on Wednesday and into southeast Georgia and the low country of South Carolina by Thursday. In time Ernesto will curve northeast up the East Coast of the United States and it is highly possible that it will be hurricane when it affects these areas as well. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency Sunday, directing counties to open their emergency management offices and activating the National Guard. Bush canceled a scheduled trip to New York on Monday, choosing to stay in Tallahassee to monitor storm developments. Officials in the Florida Keys told tourists to postpone any immediate plans to travel there and ordered those already on the island chain to leave. All travel trailers and recreational vehicles were ordered off the islands immediately.
All interests Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas should continue to check the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Ernesto. Now is the time to review your hurricane protection plan and take necessary action.
From the Northeast to the Midwest to North Texas, a slow-moving front will bring another day of wet weather. Several waves of low pressure will ride eastward along the front enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms. With the slow movement of the front and the threat of heavy rains repeatedly moving over the same area, there will be a possibility of flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches have been posted for today for central and southern portions of Indiana, including Indianapolis, and for parts of West Texas. Flash flood watches have already been posted for parts of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia.
On Sunday, heavy rains fell across the parched mid-Atlantic bringing the greatest rainfall totals of the month in many areas of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, southern New York and southern Connecticut. A warm front lifting north across the region was responsible for the soggy day with some areas receiving over 4 inches of rain. In Norwalk, Conn., Interstate 95 was flooded due to the heavy rains. In Bridgeton, N.J., so much rain fell that basements were flooded. Despite coming in the wake of a recent prolonged dry streak, the rain that fell was too much in too short of time and flash flooding was able to occur. Some of the rainfall totals include: Juniata, PA - 6 inches Vineland, NJ - 4.70 inches Milford, CT - 4.24 inches Bridgeport, CT - 4.01 inches - a new record for the date, old was 2.48 inches set in 1971 Selingsgrove, PA - 3.45 inches Sterling Forest, NY - 2.51 inches
The threat of wet weather will linger along the front into Tuesday, although drier weather is expected across the Midwest as the last in a series of waves finally moves into the Northeast and an area of high pressure builds southward, bringing in drier air to the central Plains and central Great Lakes.
A cold front finally moved far enough southward in North Texas that the streak of consecutive days of at or above 100-degree temperatures ended at the Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, Airport on Sunday with the high temperature there reaching only 96 degrees with plenty of clouds in the sky. Before the last day of this weekend, the city had to endure 19 straight days of the temperature rising to or above the century mark; this is the sixth longest stretch in history for the airport. The break in the heat will not be brief as the coming workweek will feature near-normal temperatures.
Across the central Plains, an upper-level low will spark off showers and thunderstorms today from South Dakota to eastern Kansas. Some of the storms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds. This activity will wind down tonight as the upper low heads eastward.
Across the West, an upper-level ridge of high pressure led to a hot summer day across the region, especially away from the immediate coast. Medford, Oregon soared to 100 degrees for a high temperature and in Seattle, Wash., fell one degree short of its record high for yesterday with a high of 87 degrees. The heat will continue today east of the Cascades, but the arrival of an upper-level trough will bring some cooling to areas west of the Cascades. As the trough axis works onshore tonight, the marine layer will strengthen, bringing in a more significant cooling to areas west of the Cascades for Tuesday. Even east of the Cascades, highs will lower sharply Tuesday as cooler air from the north is ushered on in.
Posts: 268 | From: New York | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
Should be interesting to see how the market reacts to Ernesto...The answer in ten minutes!
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
This thing looks like its already exiting the northern coast of Cuba.. Ernesto has been notorious for reforming its center further and further north as it has progressed. It looks like it may already be emerging over the ocean north of Cuba. It was forecast to be over Cuba until late this evening. The convection in Ernesto is also still very persistent. There is a chance that this could ride up the SE coast after it heads towards FL. If it makes it off the Midatlantic coast, it may end up stalling. This could be a big rainmaker for much of the eastern United States for a prolonged period of time. We'll see what happens..
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Back to neutral, buys are starting to roll in. Volume just flipped to being dominated by buying pressure. I agree with tompom with a close * or above .50
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Recon just found 44kt flight level winds Northeast of the supposed center just off the northern Cuban coast. Look for Ernesto to emerge over warm water soon (if it hasn't already done so) and begin to strengthen.. The convection is surprisingly persistent.
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
taken from accuweather.com 8/29/06 7am - GO NSMG
Ernesto Back Over Water; Gaining Some StrengthBy AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker
(State College, PA) - Back over water, Tropical Storm Ernesto has gained some strength early this morning. The storm will continue to intensify, most likely just under hurricane status, before making landfall over the upper Florida Keys tonight. After moving through Florida Wednesday, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is forecasting Ernesto to impact the Carolinas Thursday and Friday, then possibly the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states this Labor Day holiday weekend.
Posts: 268 | From: New York | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
New tropical wave to watch A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, near 9N 36W. This tropical wave is showing some rotation, and had winds up to 60 mph in some of the heavier thunderstorms, according to a 4:15 am EDT pass from the QuikSCAT satellite. The GFS model does develop this system into a tropical storm by Friday, and predicts it will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. This wave is very similar in position and appearance to the wave that spawned Ernesto. Wind shear is about 10-15 knots over the wave, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are 84-86F (29-30 C), which is very favorable for development. However, the intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has declined markedly this morning, and the wave is not a threat to develop until Thursday at the earliest. A large spiral of low clouds to the wave's north-northwest is associated with another tropical wave. This wave we can ignore, since it is embedded in a large area of African dust that should inhibit development. The computer models are very bullish in developing waves coming off the coast of Africa in the next two weeks, and I expect we'll have at least two new named storms by the time the peak of hurricane season arrives, September 10.
Posts: 129 | Registered: Feb 2006
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posted
Nice ask slappin...I'd like to close over .40
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 312107 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
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NHC declares a new "invest" on tropical wave in Lesser Antilles The tropical wave surrounded by a cloud of African dust and dry air that I've been commenting on ever since it left the coast of Africa, is now an official threat. NHC has designated this wave "Invest 99L" this morning. The wave is near 15N 61W, right on top of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust, but has slowly been able to pump more moisture into its center each night over the past few days as thunderstorm development kicks up then dies away. The thunderstorm activity has picked up considerably this morning, the first time the disturbance has been able to build thunderstorms during the daytime hours. The disturbance is tracking west at 15 mph into a large upper trough of low pressure over Cuba and Hispaniola that is creating about 10-20 knots of shear over 99L. The trough is expected to weaken and move west over the next few days, potentially creating a low shear environment over most of the Caribbean. This could allow intensification of 99L into a tropical depression by Monday.
Posts: 129 | Registered: Feb 2006
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posted
got to be kidding me... I sold on friday!!!
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Zack Donino: got to be kidding me... I sold on friday!!!
that must have been great timing... i was wondering who would sell at these levels there is a good chance that i bought your shares because i added 10000 at .35 this will be a really busy week for NSMG
Posts: 2473 | Registered: May 2006
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posted
still made a hefty profit...but i may jump back in this week
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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both ecci and nsmg have taken a hit over the previous 3 days or so. i am a bit worried about the wording of their press release..
"company expects to file a Form SB-2 with the Securities and Exchange Commission later this month. In a related move, the company withdrew its registration statement on Form 10-SB. "By filing an SB2 we can simultaneously get to the bulletin board and register shares that we need to sustain the financial growth of the company," said Knoll."
i hope that doesn't mean dilution..
ecci is down equally as well...i think what's happening is that the MM's are driving the price down, buy up shares cause they know both of these companies are going to pop soon.
quote:Originally posted by Repoman75: Not one major (Cat 3) hurricane will hit the U.S. this year... that's what you're betting on (and losing).
back in at .16 i think this has bottomed out at .15 repo, you keep repeating yourself over and over again seems like you´re working your minority complex here! guess your mouth is the only big thing you got after all...
Posts: 2473 | Registered: May 2006
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Do you people really believe this stock is going to stay around these levels? Personally I think we'll start goin' up soon
Posts: 4071 | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
The company is a dog. I wouldnt buy it even at a penny. This is their last season because of cashflow reasons. They are running out of cash. The only thing going for them is if there was a big hurricane, but if you are betting on hurricanes, might as well go bet in vegas.
Its downhill from here boys!....These guys are done!
Plus I strongly believe not to bet on other people's disaster, it's bad karma!!!!
Posts: 149 | From: Salt Lake City | Registered: Aug 2006
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posted
this really sucks - still holding going to hold into next year i guess - wait to see bottom form and buy more hoping to reduce my average cost - but waiting for bottom to form - don't want to catch a falling knife
Posts: 268 | From: New York | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
It seems that as soon as their ticker changed they really started dropping big. Yes I agree this stock really and I mean really SUCKS. It's sucking all my cash. I'm going to take a real hit and dump my shares. No point in losing more than I already have.
Posts: 18 | Registered: Jul 2006
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