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NSMG formerly NLST hurricane play NR 1 ( 0.43)
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by flanders1114: [QB] New tropical wave to watch A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, near 9N 36W. This tropical wave is showing some rotation, and had winds up to 60 mph in some of the heavier thunderstorms, according to a 4:15 am EDT pass from the QuikSCAT satellite. The GFS model does develop this system into a tropical storm by Friday, and predicts it will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. This wave is very similar in position and appearance to the wave that spawned Ernesto. Wind shear is about 10-15 knots over the wave, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are 84-86F (29-30 C), which is very favorable for development. However, the intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has declined markedly this morning, and the wave is not a threat to develop until Thursday at the earliest. A large spiral of low clouds to the wave's north-northwest is associated with another tropical wave. This wave we can ignore, since it is embedded in a large area of African dust that should inhibit development. The computer models are very bullish in developing waves coming off the coast of Africa in the next two weeks, and I expect we'll have at least two new named storms by the time the peak of hurricane season arrives, September 10. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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