posted
with a symbol change a new thread makes sense especially with hurricane debbie approaching... actually i think it´s the best hurricane play because it moves the most in anticipation of hurricane warnings compared to other hurricane plays at least that´s my observation... NSMG is sitting on 0.43 right now GLTA
Posts: 2473 | Registered: May 2006
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posted
Wave east of the windward islands is continuing to become better organized. Conditions expected to remain favorable for strengthening as the system moves towards the west-northwest and the Caribbean. NHC says it could possibly declare it a depression or name it a Tropical Storm on Thursday. An Air Force RECON plane will check it out tomorrow.
posted
97L (most likely soon to be Eduardo) looks to be the real deal. This system is the biggest threat so far this season. It is heading into ideal conditions for development. If it makes it into the GOM, the western side seems more likely than the eastern. Watch this one carefully.
posted
144 hr CMC forecast.. Note: 144 hr is a long way out and the reliability is low.. Also of note is that the Canadian model has been doing better with tropical systems than many of the other models so far this year.
posted
lots of activity and not much movement on the stock im a little concerned... as soon as chris formed NLST rocketed to .60
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
97L is currently not even a considered a depression and Debby is history.. Chris was formed and headed in the direction of the CONUS, though conditions were not favorable for it to strengthen, so it died out.
It still has a long way to go before it gets into the heart of the Caribbean or even close to the GOM. Right now it seems like it may be a bit too close to South America for any significant short term development. The eastern Caribbean has also historically not been the greatest place for the development of tropical cyclones. Once it reaches the central Caribbean, things should really start to take shape.
Posts: 243 | From: Knoxville, TN | Registered: Jun 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Zack Donino: lots of activity and not much movement on the stock im a little concerned... as soon as chris formed NLST rocketed to .60
patience we´ll be fine
Posts: 2473 | Registered: May 2006
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posted
Im the biggest believer here dont get me wrong...was just pointing it out. On another note what are you guys sell targets...
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Hard to say.. don't necessarily have an exact price target.. waiting and seeing what happens and what the forecast holds to decide.
Posts: 243 | From: Knoxville, TN | Registered: Jun 2006
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quote: 667 WONT41 KNHC 241920 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
CORRECTED FOR DATE IN HEADER
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.
posted
Ernesto Soon To Form; Severe Weather Shifts EastBy AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker
(State College, PA) - Tropical Depression 5 is nearly tropical storm strength; once Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, the question is, "Will the storm then intensify into the first hurricane of the year?" Meanwhile, a quieter day is in store for the northern Plains after a violent day of tornadoes and thunderstorms on Thursday. Today, the threat for severe weather will shift over parts of the Midwest and the central Plains.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression 5 was located about 345 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum-sustained winds of 35 mph. Within the next twelve hours, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is expecting the fifth tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin to form as the depression continues to become better organized.
Beyond Tropical Storm Ernesto developing, AccuWeather.com is closely monitoring the potential for this storm to become the first hurricane of the season. With a strong zone of shear to the west of the depression, the pace of the storm will determine its fate. Early Friday morning, Tropical Depression 5 was steaming westward at 20 mph. If the storm maintains its current speed, then those higher winds to the west will prevent any significant intensification. On the other hand, if the storm slows down, then that zone of stronger winds will shift northwestward allowing the storm to remain under an environment that is more conducive for a hurricane, possibly a category 3, to develop. Whatever pace the storm takes on its west-northwest trek across the Caribbean Sea, bands of heavy rain and gusty winds will spread from east to west over the Caribbean Islands through early next week.
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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You don't have to know what any of that means.. just the part that says Tropical Storm Ernesto.. We have our fifth named storm come the 5PM advisory. Significant strengthening does not appaear likely until a later period. Ernesto's heaviest convection is currently away from the low level center of circulation. Another LLC will most likely reform under the convection. The ull to the west of Ernesto, which is causing the shear, should move west as Ernesto does. If the LLC reforms under the convection, the forward speed will slow a bit and it may move a bit more north.. The slower Ernesto goes, the better chance he has of developing, because the ull can move west and the shearing environment will lessen. Once it reaches the western Caribbean and GOM, things should really start to heat up.
quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000 FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
posted
UPDATED: 8:55 am EDT, August 26, 2006 ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
The NHC is now forecasting Ernesto to become a major, or category three, hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Before it gets there, however, it will likely pass very close to or over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the western end of Cuba. It won't be long now until a hurricane watch is issued for some of these locations.
Ernesto continues to get better organized and it has fought off several negative factors over the last few days. One of the biggest obstacles in its way has been fairly strong upper level winds that act to blow off the deep thunderstorms that must develop over the core of the storm for it to strengthen. These shearing winds are forecast to relax to near nothing over the coming days- leaving a pattern that would support another nasty hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I realize the implications of this and feel bad for people who are still trying to recover from Katrina, Rita, Dennis and Ivan. The fact is that we have reached a busy time in the hurricane season and we knew this was a remote possibility- and yet, here we are. Before getting too worried about Ernesto, let's see what happens over the next few days. Right now it is a tropical storm and has a ways to go before reaching that major hurricane status. I would simply encourage people who live along the Gulf Coast, from Florida to Texas, to keep an eye on what's happening. There are plenty of sources of information out there now and you know you can count on us to provide the latest info as well. Should Ernesto indeed threaten a landfall in the U.S., we are prepared to head out for our field observation and reporting using our weather instruments and remote camera system. I just returned from Mississippi where Jesse Bass and I set up a 10-meter wind tower at the Bay-Waveland Middle School. We are now back home and are getting equipment ready for a possible trip back to the Gulf. I will post updates here all weekend long. Hey, at least the rest of the tropics are quiet for now. Debby is weakening and the east Pacific is free and clear of any threats to land. I will have more here later this afternoon.
quote:000 WTNT45 KNHC 261454 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS.
IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
posted
u think thats as high as its going to get before another big sell off? probably right with all the buys that went thru under a buck. lots of buys though at 1.75 and a bit higher though.
-------------------- GOD BLESS AMERICA, THE UNION, AND ALL OF OUR VETERANS!!!!!!! Posts: 464 | From: ILLINOIS | Registered: Feb 2006
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posted
I think she could peak around $2 this year...imo
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
intersting points in the article which was released 1 hr ago
Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore in Louisiana last August 29 and devastated the city of New Orleans by breaching its levees. It killed around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), Ernesto's maximum sustained winds had risen to 60 mph (95 kph) and it was moving toward the west-northwest at about 13 mph (20 kph).
posted
Say ernesto does keep the cat3 rating/track or even increases, what could that mean for nsmg and ecci? I know theyre going to go up, but anyone have any opinions on how far up? within reason of course, i know we'd all love 10000%, but i don't think that would happen.
Posts: 854 | From: Alpharetta, GA | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Igor R: Say ernesto does keep the cat3 rating/track or even increases, what could that mean for nsmg and ecci? I know theyre going to go up, but anyone have any opinions on how far up? within reason of course, i know we'd all love 10000%, but i don't think that would happen.
lol "ernesto!! the check ,please..."
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posted
ok i see resistance at .55 ,.60 and .64 once above that we´ll zoom to dollar range imo if ernesto gets the job done right it might even be this week! ...ERNESTO!!
Posts: 2473 | Registered: May 2006
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posted
Ernesto is definitely in a weakened state right now. It's interacting with Hispanola and Air Force recon hasn't found hurricane force winds yet.. may get downgraded to a tropical storm. Once it gets away from Hispanola, Ernesto should strengthen again, perhaps reforming a broader low level center of circulation. The broader the LLC is, the better chance Ernesto has of surviving over Cuba. It's exact track will be VERY important. A few degrees difference will decide if Ernesto is over Cuba for 12 hours or 24 hours. If it can hold itself together through Cuba, there is nothing to stop rapid strengthening in the GOM. I wouldn't trust the forecast beyond 2-3 days as of right now. The models are all over the place and a ridge in the SE United States could deter Ernesto from taking a north/easterly track. Many models show Ernesto getting into the GOM, and then meandering here and there with no real steering currents. It's general direction in the next few hours will be very important in determining how long Ernesto will be over Cuba.
posted
Ernesto is barely a Tropical Storm south of Cuba right now. It's center is currently between Hispanola and Cuba.. The convection around the center has had a nice burst in the past couple hours.. Though Ernesto is very weakened, he appears to be strengthening a bit before he runs over Cuba. He should emerge from Cuba as either a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm. Many current models are showing Ernesto go over southern and western Florida. These models may shift west on the next run. The ridge over the SE doesn't appear to be weakening as significantly as the models have been assuming. Definitely in the wait and see stage right now.. I expect it will head a bit more west than the track shows right now. (As of 1100PM Advisory)
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