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Author Topic: NSMG formerly NLST hurricane play NR 1 ( 0.43)
tompom
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with a symbol change a new thread makes sense
especially with hurricane debbie approaching...
actually i think it´s the best hurricane play because it moves the most in anticipation of hurricane warnings compared to other hurricane plays
at least that´s my observation...
NSMG is sitting on 0.43 right now
GLTA

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tompom
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i see support at 0.41 and 0.35
resistance at .44, .45 and .55

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utvolsfan13
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Wave east of the windward islands is continuing to become better organized. Conditions expected to remain favorable for strengthening as the system moves towards the west-northwest and the Caribbean. NHC says it could possibly declare it a depression or name it a Tropical Storm on Thursday. An Air Force RECON plane will check it out tomorrow.

 -

--------------------
-Kevin

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utvolsfan13
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97L (most likely soon to be Eduardo) looks to be the real deal. This system is the biggest threat so far this season. It is heading into ideal conditions for development. If it makes it into the GOM, the western side seems more likely than the eastern. Watch this one carefully.

--------------------
-Kevin

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utvolsfan13
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144 hr CMC forecast.. Note: 144 hr is a long way out and the reliability is low.. Also of note is that the Canadian model has been doing better with tropical systems than many of the other models so far this year.

 -

--------------------
-Kevin

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birches
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nbcweatherplus.com is projecting another tropical storm - earnesto
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NYSE Trader
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lots of activity and not much movement on the stock im a little concerned... as soon as chris formed NLST rocketed to .60

--------------------
“Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another."

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utvolsfan13
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97L is currently not even a considered a depression and Debby is history.. Chris was formed and headed in the direction of the CONUS, though conditions were not favorable for it to strengthen, so it died out.

It still has a long way to go before it gets into the heart of the Caribbean or even close to the GOM. Right now it seems like it may be a bit too close to South America for any significant short term development. The eastern Caribbean has also historically not been the greatest place for the development of tropical cyclones. Once it reaches the central Caribbean, things should really start to take shape.

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tompom
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quote:
Originally posted by Zack Donino:
lots of activity and not much movement on the stock im a little concerned... as soon as chris formed NLST rocketed to .60

patience
we´ll be fine

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NYSE Trader
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Im the biggest believer here dont get me wrong...was just pointing it out. On another note what are you guys sell targets...

--------------------
“Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another."

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utvolsfan13
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Hard to say.. don't necessarily have an exact price target.. waiting and seeing what happens and what the forecast holds to decide.
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tompom
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there ya go!
she´s moving!

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utvolsfan13
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quote:

667
WONT41 KNHC 241920
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

CORRECTED FOR DATE IN HEADER

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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utvolsfan13
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Quick! Turn on Fox News.. Shep Smith just said something about people "investing in the hurricane season" and how they'd show it next.

--------------------
-Kevin

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utvolsfan13
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 -

--------------------
-Kevin

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renrob05
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If hurricane threatens US...this will double easily

--------------------
Renee
Easy money!

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birches
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Ernesto Soon To Form; Severe Weather Shifts EastBy AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker

(State College, PA) - Tropical Depression 5 is nearly tropical storm strength; once Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, the question is, "Will the storm then intensify into the first hurricane of the year?" Meanwhile, a quieter day is in store for the northern Plains after a violent day of tornadoes and thunderstorms on Thursday. Today, the threat for severe weather will shift over parts of the Midwest and the central Plains.

As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression 5 was located about 345 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum-sustained winds of 35 mph. Within the next twelve hours, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is expecting the fifth tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin to form as the depression continues to become better organized.

Beyond Tropical Storm Ernesto developing, AccuWeather.com is closely monitoring the potential for this storm to become the first hurricane of the season. With a strong zone of shear to the west of the depression, the pace of the storm will determine its fate. Early Friday morning, Tropical Depression 5 was steaming westward at 20 mph. If the storm maintains its current speed, then those higher winds to the west will prevent any significant intensification. On the other hand, if the storm slows down, then that zone of stronger winds will shift northwestward allowing the storm to remain under an environment that is more conducive for a hurricane, possibly a category 3, to develop. Whatever pace the storm takes on its west-northwest trek across the Caribbean Sea, bands of heavy rain and gusty winds will spread from east to west over the Caribbean Islands through early next week.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp

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tompom
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oh boy...get ready!
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NYSE Trader
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next week might be the big time...

--------------------
“Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another."

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birches
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go NSMG - have to see if Earnesto develops - if it does.....weeeeee
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tompom
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very strong close!
next week will be F.U.N. !

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utvolsfan13
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quote:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 68.9W 16.0N 71.1W 17.2N 73.3W
BAMM 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.0N 71.8W 17.0N 74.2W
A98E 14.1N 67.1W 14.8N 69.8W 15.6N 72.2W 16.5N 74.5W
LBAR 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.2N 71.8W 17.2N 74.2W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 75.7W 19.6N 80.7W 20.2N 85.9W 21.2N 90.7W
BAMM 18.2N 76.7W 19.9N 81.5W 21.0N 86.1W 22.2N 90.0W
A98E 17.7N 77.0W 19.6N 82.4W 21.2N 87.7W 22.6N 92.2W
LBAR 18.3N 76.6W 20.9N 81.0W 22.4N 85.2W 24.0N 88.9W
SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 64.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

You don't have to know what any of that means.. just the part that says Tropical Storm Ernesto.. We have our fifth named storm come the 5PM advisory. Significant strengthening does not appaear likely until a later period. Ernesto's heaviest convection is currently away from the low level center of circulation. Another LLC will most likely reform under the convection. The ull to the west of Ernesto, which is causing the shear, should move west as Ernesto does. If the LLC reforms under the convection, the forward speed will slow a bit and it may move a bit more north.. The slower Ernesto goes, the better chance he has of developing, because the ull can move west and the shearing environment will lessen. Once it reaches the western Caribbean and GOM, things should really start to heat up.

--------------------
-Kevin

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utvolsfan13
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quote:

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN




--------------------
-Kevin

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renrob05
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UPDATED: 8:55 am EDT, August 26, 2006
ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

The NHC is now forecasting Ernesto to become a major, or category three, hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Before it gets there, however, it will likely pass very close to or over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the western end of Cuba. It won't be long now until a hurricane watch is issued for some of these locations.

Ernesto continues to get better organized and it has fought off several negative factors over the last few days. One of the biggest obstacles in its way has been fairly strong upper level winds that act to blow off the deep thunderstorms that must develop over the core of the storm for it to strengthen. These shearing winds are forecast to relax to near nothing over the coming days- leaving a pattern that would support another nasty hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I realize the implications of this and feel bad for people who are still trying to recover from Katrina, Rita, Dennis and Ivan. The fact is that we have reached a busy time in the hurricane season and we knew this was a remote possibility- and yet, here we are. Before getting too worried about Ernesto, let's see what happens over the next few days. Right now it is a tropical storm and has a ways to go before reaching that major hurricane status. I would simply encourage people who live along the Gulf Coast, from Florida to Texas, to keep an eye on what's happening. There are plenty of sources of information out there now and you know you can count on us to provide the latest info as well. Should Ernesto indeed threaten a landfall in the U.S., we are prepared to head out for our field observation and reporting using our weather instruments and remote camera system. I just returned from Mississippi where Jesse Bass and I set up a 10-meter wind tower at the Bay-Waveland Middle School. We are now back home and are getting equipment ready for a possible trip back to the Gulf. I will post updates here all weekend long. Hey, at least the rest of the tropics are quiet for now. Debby is weakening and the east Pacific is free and clear of any threats to land. I will have more here later this afternoon.

--------------------
Renee
Easy money!

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utvolsfan13
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quote:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 261454
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT
SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS
PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER
THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO
TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS
ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF.
COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36
HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
INHIBITING FACTORS.


IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.1N 71.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W 80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
96HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W 90 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 -
 -
 -
 -

--------------------
-Kevin

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weatherbill
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should see the 60s monday with even more on tues and wednesday before a big sell off.....

all week runner if ernesto stays the cat3/4 course

--------------------
GSUS - Eternal 100 Bagger!
HCPC - my favorite potential into December

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TINPOZ
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u think thats as high as its going to get before another big sell off? probably right with all the buys that went thru under a buck. lots of buys though at 1.75 and a bit higher though.

--------------------
GOD BLESS AMERICA, THE UNION, AND ALL OF OUR VETERANS!!!!!!!

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NYSE Trader
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I think she could peak around $2 this year...imo

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“Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another."

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weatherbill
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intersting points in the article which was released 1 hr ago

Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore in Louisiana last August 29 and devastated the city of New Orleans by breaching its levees. It killed around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), Ernesto's maximum sustained winds had risen to 60 mph (95 kph) and it was moving toward the west-northwest at about 13 mph (20 kph).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060826/...ather_storm_dc

some models say this could become a CAT4 storm, stronger than Katrina....if so, man oh man......hold tight

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HCPC - my favorite potential into December

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Igor R
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Say ernesto does keep the cat3 rating/track or even increases, what could that mean for nsmg and ecci? I know theyre going to go up, but anyone have any opinions on how far up? within reason of course, i know we'd all love 10000%, but i don't think that would happen.
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tompom
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quote:
Originally posted by Igor R:
Say ernesto does keep the cat3 rating/track or even increases, what could that mean for nsmg and ecci? I know theyre going to go up, but anyone have any opinions on how far up? within reason of course, i know we'd all love 10000%, but i don't think that would happen.

lol
"ernesto!! the check ,please..."

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tompom
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ok
i see resistance at .55 ,.60 and .64
once above that we´ll zoom to dollar range imo
if ernesto gets the job done right it might even be this week!
...ERNESTO!!

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utvolsfan13
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Katrina was a category 5 at one point. It weakened when it got very close to land like most systems do.

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utvolsfan13
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Ernesto is definitely in a weakened state right now. It's interacting with Hispanola and Air Force recon hasn't found hurricane force winds yet.. may get downgraded to a tropical storm. Once it gets away from Hispanola, Ernesto should strengthen again, perhaps reforming a broader low level center of circulation. The broader the LLC is, the better chance Ernesto has of surviving over Cuba. It's exact track will be VERY important. A few degrees difference will decide if Ernesto is over Cuba for 12 hours or 24 hours. If it can hold itself together through Cuba, there is nothing to stop rapid strengthening in the GOM. I wouldn't trust the forecast beyond 2-3 days as of right now. The models are all over the place and a ridge in the SE United States could deter Ernesto from taking a north/easterly track. Many models show Ernesto getting into the GOM, and then meandering here and there with no real steering currents. It's general direction in the next few hours will be very important in determining how long Ernesto will be over Cuba.

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-Kevin

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utvolsfan13
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Ernesto is barely a Tropical Storm south of Cuba right now. It's center is currently between Hispanola and Cuba.. The convection around the center has had a nice burst in the past couple hours.. Though Ernesto is very weakened, he appears to be strengthening a bit before he runs over Cuba. He should emerge from Cuba as either a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm. Many current models are showing Ernesto go over southern and western Florida. These models may shift west on the next run. The ridge over the SE doesn't appear to be weakening as significantly as the models have been assuming. Definitely in the wait and see stage right now.. I expect it will head a bit more west than the track shows right now. (As of 1100PM Advisory)

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