quote:Originally posted by JJMoneyman: Just so you know, I am a full time coin dealer. I have full time shop and travel across the country selling at shows. All dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars dated 1964 and earlier are 90% silver. This is a great way to accumulate silver as most dealers will sell this kind of thing to you at slightly over melt value. Current melt value on old silver coins is 9.785 times face value. So an old silver dime has just over 97 cents worth of silver in it and so on. Silver rounds and bars can also usually be purchased for a small premium over spot value.
Now the same isn't true of old gold coins produced by the US. Most old gold brings a higher premium over spot value. But there are plenty of choices in bullion gold out there to choose from. The cheapest premium over spot is usually the Krugerrand. Personally I like to put smaller pieces of gold away in my safe for the future, because if gold ever does go through the roof, larger pieces may be harder to sell because of the $$ value involved. But keep in mind the smaller pieces usually demand a higher premium over spot value.
The dollar is going to be one of the strongest issues relating to bullion pricing. As the dollar continues to fall against foreign currencies the price of bullion should continue to increase. There are of course other factors.
If you are looking to buy bullion just call the coin shops in your area and compare prices. And when it comes time to sell, just do the same thing. Believe me, not all dealers will have the same price and it's worth your time to shop around.
Good luck!
JJ, what is gold and silver doing in your area? I, too, have a coin shop, and make a nice profit buying silver coin at 4X and selling it at 8X. Gold is a little tougher due to the higher value, but gold coins are very hot right now, eespecially the older uncirculated double eagles.
-------------------- If I give you bad information, please feel free to sue me. I have nothing left anyway. Ed
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posted
Gold broke 800/oz today... IMO, it's gone up way to fast without a breather.. I'm guessing from the charts it will hit a wall at 810-815 and then there will be a big correction, though I doubt it will fall below 690-680/oz when the correction finally does come.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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posted
Part of why its soo high has a lot to do with its getting harder to mine. I saw something about Africa on Discovery Channel as being huge in gold mining but they are having a tough time mining it because its not as abundant now since they mined most of what they have. They said this was a main reason gold prices are soo high now. I never thought it would go this high.
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Gold still going up in Hong Kong and Sydney Markets as we speak....
832/oz at the moment... I hope it holds overnight... Should be heavy resistance though around 835/oz, which was the all time high reached back in the 1980's.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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quote:Originally posted by NaturalResources: Hmmmm... guess the all time high for gold was 850/oz in January of 1980 , not 835/oz as I stated earlier...
LOL Well I thats a damn long time regardless.
It will be interesting to see the retraction on both in the coming days/weeks.....if there is ever going to be one...LOL
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One look at a 6 month chart and it seems inevitable that there will be a very large drop, perhaps of 90-100/oz by the time it is all done...
Hard to say for sure though, if you take the 1980 peak of 850/oz and adjust for inflation, you get a gold price of ~2000/oz in 2006 dollars... so perhaps this is just the beginning...
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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When Simon & Garfunkel recorded "Bridge over Troubled Water" back in 1969, they knew they had a potential hit on their hands. And they were right, as it went on to become a number-one hit (staying atop the top of the charts for six weeks) and be covered by literally dozens of other singers.
Like Simon & Garfunkel, those who started investing in the gold market around 2001 have also scored a smash hit. Quite simply, gold has performed spectacularly here in our new century. And the best news? We’re still early in what should prove to be an epic bull run. With so many other investments looking dubious and the world economic situation experiencing significant uncertainty, gold can provide the savvy investor with a bridge over troubled water.
Demand Far Surpassing Supply
According to the World Gold Council, the demand for gold reached a record high of $65.3 billion in 2006, driven by strong demand for industrial purposes and jewelry manufacturing. At the same time, the supply of gold has contracted considerably. Central banks have reduced their planned sales, while mining companies have accelerated the unwinding of their hedge books. In fact, the mine supply of gold dropped by a jaw-dropping 15 percent during 2006.
This supply/demand imbalance is expected to continue - and it may even increase. Indeed, several recent articles have indicated that many central banks, including those in Spain and Germany, intend to curtail their gold sales. Most central bank officials have recognized that gold’s strong financial performance makes it a useful counter to the swings shown by the U.S. dollar. While it is no longer the foundation of the international financial system, central banks still consider gold to be a crucial reserve asset. Rumors are also abuzz that China and a number of wealthy nations in the Middle East have swiftly scooped up what little gold that the European central banks have been selling.
The data around the gold supply strongly signals that it will not keep pace with demand in coming years. The global mine supply of gold peaked in 2002, and has fallen each year since. Several of the world’s largest mining companies expect further declines in production next year, and are in a scramble to increase reserves through acquisition of new mining properties. Last year South Africa, the world’s single-largest gold producer, produced its lowest amount of gold since 1922 - and its overall output is down 72 percent from its 1970 peak.
Importantly, no major new mine production is expected in the near term. In general, it takes more than a decade to acquire, finance, build and staff a mine and commence production. The permitting process is also highly stringent, as evidenced by Coeur’s Kensington Mine in Alaska - a $250 million investment that has yet to process any ore due to issues around the disposal of waste rock - and Northgate’s Kemess North project in Canada, which has essentially been placed on hold due to environmental concerns. Compounding the supply problem is an acute global shortage of trained geologists, miners, diamond drills and mining equipment.
Demand, on the other hand, continues to increase in the face of the newfound prosperity and increased discretionary disposable income being freed up by the Asian economic boom, particularly in China and India. This is not a short-term trend by any means; rather, it is evidence of a long-term shift in consumption demand. Asia and its three billion people lead the world in economic growth. In much of Asia, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent, the people value gold as the best possible protection against both economic and political crisis. Throughout the developing world, gold is the most liquid, efficient and widely accepted form of exchange and the best store of value - especially in rural areas that lack access to banking services. Jewelry is coveted in the developing world, where it functions as both adornment and savings. Jewelry is often the only asset a Muslim or Hindu woman is culturally permitted to own, and therefore can be her only form of protection against financial adversity. Additionally, the dowry concept is alive and well in India today, where gold is commonly transferred from the family of the bride to the groom.
A Hedge Against Inflation and Irresponsible Money Supply Creation
The price of gold in terms of the U.S. dollar is up more than 30 percent over the past year, pointing to its status as a proven and effective hedge against inflation. In fact, gold has outperformed the Consumer Price Index by a factor of more than 2 to 1 over the past seven years. The gold market is benefiting from the fact that the annualized money supply growth in the world’s largest economies is increasing at a rate far in excess of the growth in each countries’ respective GDP - a situation that is highly inflationary and certainly not sustainable. Figure 1 shows how the money supply has been growing in some of the world’s leading economies this year.
Figure 1: Annualized Money Supply Growth
India 20%
China 16.9%
Britain 14.2%
Australia 11.2%
Sweden 10.6%
Canada 8.6%
United States 14% (estimate; official figure no longer published)
It is no wonder that gold has outperformed nearly every other asset class over the past several years, as it is protecting investors now in the same way that it has during other turbulent times. If gold had a voice, it would likely be heard to sing, “I’m on your side, when times get rough/And friends just can’t be found.”
Gold’s Special Qualities
Gold has functioned as an adornment and store of value for more than 6,000 years. The earliest gold jewelry dates from the Sumerian civilization that flourished around 4,000 BC. Gold’s intrinsic beauty, warmth, glitter, sensuality and spiritual richness have evoked powerful human emotions throughout history.
Gold plays a vital part as a symbol of love and devotion. It also has significance for occasions like weddings, anniversaries and birthdays, as well as a host of other holidays, ceremonies and customs. Consider, too, the ways in which gold has enriched our language - the best years of our lives are known as “the golden years”; an advantageous situation is referred to as a “golden opportunity”; a civilization’s time of peace, prosperity and creativity is referred to as a “golden era.”
The Bible contains a detailed and lengthy description of the role that gold played during King Solomon’s reign (1 Kings Chapter 10 verses 14-21). To hold a gold coin is to hold something that has provided security and value for thousands of years.
Just how rare is gold? How small is the supply? According to the World Gold Council, as of 2001 the total amount of all gold ever mined comes out to a mere 4.661 billion ounces. Given that the total world population now exceeds 6.6 billion people, there is less than one ounce of gold available per capita to invest in right now - a figure that shrinks even further in light of the fact that central banks already hold a considerable amount of gold.
Why is this relevant? For one thing, financial portfolio managers suggest that at least 5 percent of a person’s total net worth should be invested in precious metals as an insurance policy to protect against very hard economic times and periods of geopolitical instability. Yet very few people have followed this advice - which is somewhat fortunate, as there is not enough gold to go around should the general public ever decide to act on this advice en masse!
Concluding Thoughts
Gold is, quite simply, on a powerful run. It is currently trading at more than $800 an ounce, more than triple what it was going for just six years ago. As a result, gold is slowly and gradually appearing on people’s radar. It is becoming more mainstream - and making its way into Main Street portfolios.
Major investment banks and brokerage firms that were long silent on gold are now talking it up. On October 30, Credit Suisse, a major broker/dealer in precious metals, issued its price forecasts for gold: $838 an ounce in 2008, $950 an ounce in 2009 and $1,050 an ounce in 2010. Credit Suisse knows that the combination of slowing U.S. economic growth, the inflationary effects of rising oil and commodity prices and a change in supply-and-demand dynamics make gold a safe haven, which will put further upward pressure on gold prices given the tight supply. Soon enough we are likely to see one of the giants of business publishing a book that advises investment in gold and precious metals, which will likely serve as the tipping point toward a new Gold Rush in the financial markets.
Those who do not own gold need to realize that the time to act is now. Do it to protect and diversify your portfolio. Do it for family. Do it because commodity bull markets typically last 15 years or more, and this one is just beginning.
The train is leaving the station; don’t be left behind. The U.S. dollar may well continue to fall relative to foreign currencies. This will fan the flames of inflation as foreign goods become more expensive. Asian investors have been dumping the U.S. dollar since midyear 2007, and the central banks of Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam have either begun to or have signaled their intention to cut purchases of U.S. bonds. China is becoming less friendly to the dollar and clearly intends to diversify. August 2007 marked the first time since 1998 that the rest of the world has sold more U.S. treasuries than it has purchased. The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have trimmed our yield advantage over other countries, making for a situation that could not be more gold positive.
The world is awash in fiat paper currencies, none of which are backed by gold. The total value of all paper money and bonds in the world is $100 trillion, while the total value of all the gold ever mined is $3.7 trillion. Essentially, then, for every dollar in paper money there is only 3.7 cents worth of real money to back it up - a disconcerting thought to be sure. The time has come to bring gold into the portfolio and to let it be that “bridge over troubled water.”
Be a part of this historic bull run in gold, and rest easier at night knowing that you have preserved your purchasing power and own something of real and increasing value. As Simon & Garfunkel sang, "Your time has come to shine/All your dreams are on their way…."
Gold Is…
Free of religious or political affiliation Neutral on race, gender and language preference Easily transported Universally accepted A path to portfolio diversification, since it has a low or negative correlation to other major asset classes Impervious to corrosion, tarnish or decay Free from debt Rare, scarce and difficult to produce A rare and treasured thing that cannot be created on a printing press like a dollar, yen or peso can All but impossible to counterfeit Easily bought and sold anywhere in the world Incapable of being bankrupted Ewald Dienhart
****
Ewald (Eddie) Dienhart is Chairman of Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. (OTCPK- DGRI), an operator of proven gold mines in Southeast Oregon. For more information, please visit www.dutchgoldresources.com.
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In that speech, you assured the audience that the CFTC was, indeed, the cop on the beat, when it came to dealing with fraud, abuse and manipulation in the markets. Specifically, you stated;
"We are not some ‘Andy Griffith’ operation. We are more like ‘Elliot Ness’ or ‘James Bond,’ or in the case of crooked operations we are shutting down; we are more like, ‘The Terminator.’"
Based upon your clear words, I can only assume that you are unaware of the specific issues of abuse and manipulation that have been alleged in the silver market. In August, hundreds of concerned investors wrote to your Acting Chairman Lukken and to the CEO of the NYMEX, James Newsome (a former CFTC Chairman), asking three simple questions, as a result of my article, "Fighting Back." http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-21-07.html In a subsequent article, "The Royal Scam," two additional simple questions were asked. http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-28-07.html
Although almost three months have passed, neither Acting Chairman Lukken, nor Mr. Newsome have replied to these very simple questions, regarding the unusual concentration on the short side of the COMEX silver market;
If a net concentrated silver short position, held by 4 or less traders, of the equivalent of over 260 million ounces is not manipulative to price, what amount would be manipulative? Should a trader’s identity be shielded if allegations of manipulation are made? Please list those markets where the net concentrated short position, held by 4 or less traders, is greater than 150 days of global production, as is the case in silver. What is the purpose behind the compiling and publishing of concentration data in every market? When does concentration rise to the level of manipulation? Since August, the COMEX gold futures market has also developed the characteristics of a manipulation in progress, due to an unusual concentration on the short side, where the 4 and 8 largest traders have amassed a concentrated short position larger than at any point in history. As I am sure you know, concentration and manipulation go hand in hand.
In addition, concentrated short positions, when ultimately resolved, will necessarily cause an unusually large price reaction, either up or down, that has nothing to do with real world fundamental supply and demand considerations. This is against the most basic premise of commodity law.
Lastly, over the past few weeks, there has been an unusual build up in intra-market spread positions in both the COMEX silver and gold futures market to multi-decade records in each. I am aware of no legitimate economic justification for such an increase in these spread positions.
In fact, the only plausible explanation for these intra-market spreads is to camouflage the true extent of the concentration, in percentage terms, because the spreads artificially overstate the true open interest in COMEX gold and silver.
By removing these uneconomic spread transactions (all the non-commercial spread positions and a reasonable adjustment for the commercial spreads which are not reported) from the most recent Commitment of Traders Report, the 4 largest silver traders are net short more than 50% of the entire market, and not the 34.8% reported. In gold, the true percentage of the 4 largest traders’ net short position is 45%, not the 27.1% reported. These are outrageous concentrations and are easily verified by the CFTC.
Given the clear message in your public speech, I respectfully call on you to have the Commission and the NYMEX answer the above questions and the new concerns about the artificial inflation of the COMEX gold and silver open interest via the spreads. By not responding, doubts are created as to the Commission’s resolve about enforcement of the law. It is to no common good for the belief and appearance of manipulation to exist.
Respectfully yours,
Theodore Butler
Readers might consider contacting Commissioner Chilton on this issue and contacting (or following up on previous contacts) Acting Chairman Walter Lukken and NYMEX CEO James Newsome, as well.
posted
Yup,900 before bell in am...The World Report comes on at 4am and it will prob be up there in te stratosphere somewhere.If you play subbies ABVG was up 100% on rumors of being bought out by a company in russia.
I agree, 1100 by March is not out of the question, however short-term analysis IMO says Gold has gone up too high, too fast. I see a pullback over the next few weeks, with support at ~800, 750 and 700/oz.
Long term still looks bullish though IMO, as I expect the Fed will keep dropping rates over the next few meetings which theoretically should drive the price upwards. Plus, if you adjust gold prices for inflation, 2000/oz doesn't seem out of the question either by the end of 2008 early 2009... You never know though, this is uncharted territory.
As far as silver, I've been reading your posts and I have been watching for a good entry point for Sterling Mining (SRLM.OB). I own mostly gold stocks, but I want more exposure to silver. Any suggestions?
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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CHICAGO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Vancouver-based Aurizon Mines [AMEX:AZK; TSX:ARZ] capped off a successful year by reporting 160,000 ounces of gold production from its wholly-owned Casa Berardi mine, only slightly below recent 2007 projections.
But even though it began production at Casa Berardi in May, Aurizon’s share price has yet to fully make the multiple transition from developer to producer. With its first full-year of production cash-flows coming in 2008, and excellent gold leverage, the firm is likely to be a significant beneficiary of a strong macro climate for gold.
For example, using National Bank Financial’s $800/oz gold forecast, Aurizon is only trading at a slight premium to its NAV. This is significantly light given the firm’s strong eight months of 2007 production and its respectable exploration upside.
For the coming year, Aurizon expects to churn out another 160,000 ounces of gold at cash operating costs of $394. The costs are expected to be higher than the past year’s due in part to expectations of continued strength in the Canadian dollar. But with capital and infrastructure expenditures coming in at a total of $18 million and current gold prices of $900 an ounce, it’s clear that the mine will still throw off significant amounts of free cash in 2008.
The ultimate production potential of Casa Berardi isn’t fully certain at this point, as the deposit remains open at depth for strong exploration potential. (The current operations are actually two separate mines on one property located in the prolific Abitibi belt.) In the coming year, Aurzion plans to invest about $10 million, with a strong focus on underground development and exploration of the areas between the two properties.
A resource update expected in February or March could be one of the tickets to propel the shares higher.
Beyond Casa Berardi, the company has another solid development target in its Joanna property, also located within the Abitibi region of Quebec. In December the firm reported results from 22 holes at that project with a weighted average grade of 3.8 g/t over a weighted average intercept of 2.25 metres.
Joanna is estimated to contain 11.3 million tonnes grading 1.7 g/t Au, for 630,000 ounces in the indicated category and 28.6 million tonnes grading 1.6 g/t Au, for 1.42 million ounces in the inferred category. Some analysts have recently said they expect the project’s 2 million ounce resource could double in size as it develops.
Three rigs are currently active on the site, and a preliminary economic assessment due sometime this quarter could also further spark interest in the shares.
All in all, the excellent development speed of Casa Berardi and 2007 production shows that Aurizon’s management likely made a wise decision in rejecting Northgate Minerals [AMEX:NXG; TSX:NGX] 2006 buy-out bid.
Given Aurizon’s strong development prospects, reasonable costs, and still cheap multiple, it’s likely that the firm could be a target of further M&A interest over the course of the year.
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posted
Thanks for the info A Surfer... I like CDE, strong balance sheet and lots of properties in stable jurisdictions... AZK? I own it, bought when NXG tried to buy them out. If you own it? Keep a close eye on mine conditions at Casa Berardi. The geology in the area is notoriously unstable. However, as long as they don't run into any problems in that department, it should be a good play over the next 2-3 quarters. (See middle of second and third paragraph in AZK press release dated Feb 1 2007: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070201/0210431.html )
Gold is looking like it has a decent start for the Hong Kong and Sydney markets... Spiked to 898 shortly after open, down a bit now, but I expect it will be up by the time markets open in NY tomorrow.
After that, it should depend on how the first round of earnings go.. I think several big banks are set to report this week, so be on your toes. Keep in mind however, last quarter numbers are already expected to be bad so company outlooks will be critical.
Also, the gov is set to release monthly numbers on retail sales, producer prices, consumer prices and home construction this week. IMO, they will reflect a continued slowdown in the economy and lead to a min 1/4 point rate cut at the Fed meeting on Jan 29-30th.
All in all, I am bullish for Gold the next 2 weeks, and I think we will test and break through the 900/oz level by the end of this week.
All IMO of course, NR.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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In gold, the eight largest traders accounted for 95% of the all the COMEX commercial selling in the past three weeks (with the 4 largest making up most of that amount). Without this concentrated short selling, prices would have climbed much higher. The remarkable fact is that the natural hedgers, the gold mining companies, have been retreating from forward selling, leaving the question open as to who the heck the sellers are and what is their legitimacy?
At precisely the time the gold miners hold the lowest forward sale position in many years, the four largest traders on the COMEX hold a record net short position of 75 days of world mine production and the 8 largest traders hold a short position of more than 104 days world production. Gold’s concentrated short position, expressed in days of world mine production is the largest of any commodity other than silver.
The 4 or less traders in silver are now net short more than 282 million ounces, or more than 161 days of world mine production, another ugly new record. The 8 largest traders are net short almost 200 days of world mine production. Not only is this a record for silver, it is so far beyond a record for any commodity that I can confidently predict that no commodity will ever again have such a preposterously large short position.
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posted
My post from last Jan 22nd on another thread... It is always good to have something tucked away that will never be touched. Gold or silver IMO. This is a very good site and a good rep to go through for certs IMO.
Precious metals closed mixed on Monday as oil and stocks fell and the dollar rose. Gold closed in NY off $2.00 to $633.40/oz., while silver rose $.06 to $12.87/oz. "OPEC nations are unloading $10B in U.S. Treasuries as oil tumbles"... meanwhile, "China diversifies $1T investments to include more crude oil and metals..." ------------------------------
IMO when we get closer to hitting bottom gold will sell off to fortify losses and double down other positions throughout the major markets. Just like those scrambling to bonds to save their ass they also went to gold and silver. I won't say buying gold now isn't prudent. Having something solid is always a good thing. And we could see some new highs also. Just offering a different perspective. Amazing that it has only been 1 year eh?
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?
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posted
Feds cut rates 3/4 percent... Gold up to 890/oz from 850 this morning. There is also talk of another cut when the Feds meet on the 29-30th. If so, unless there is another pullback, IMO, Gold should move up above 900/oz again.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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posted
Gold back above 900/oz, and traded at a new high of 923/oz today. Currently trading at 912/oz. Short term looks like support at 910, 890 and 870, resistance at 925.
quote:Gold and platinum prices hit an all-time high after South Africa’s main precious metals mines were forced to close on Friday for lack of power as the government said the country faced a “national electricity emergency”.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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