pushing 17-year highs at $458/oz, seemingly mainly on inflation fears.
Anyone really liking any gold stocks now, in particular juniors?
i admit my gold stocks are likely too boring for the OTC players here: only have 3 long-term holds in IRA accounts - NTO, NXG, and EDV.TO.
as a side note, platinum has also had a pretty good run to $922/oz, palladium still mostly in the dumps though.
on an even more tangential note, Purl brought up GPXM here, my only other metal holding is i have a teeny bit in a similar moly play - ROK.V. a little surprising to me that moly prices bounced and moved up to $35/lb but stocks like GPXM and ROK.V have gone nowhere.
gold is danged hard to figure: so many people claiming so many different pulls on it. some view it as purely an inflation hedge, some view it as really the "anti-dollar", some look at demand for things like jewelry and ignore other influences. probably all have a grain of truth, but - at least for me - is tough to sort out all the influences both positive and negative on gold prices.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
great article. I have been hesitant about the gold market. I just don't know enough about. Openheimer has a great metals stock which I am seriously considering entering. Openheimer is traditionally a huge roller coaster in many of their stocks but excellent returns if you can stomach it.
I am also considering playing currencies. I have a lot to learn there though before I even chance it.
Posted by R1Man on :
Gold always moves up in the fall/winter and tumbles back in feb. Look at this mutual fund...
OPGSX
It has a 10 year history of this type of movement. I always load up on it around May and dump around November. I'm in for $15.50 a share....up 32% right now. Its good for a 25-35% gain yearly if you follow the history of the charts.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: pushing 17-year highs at $458/oz, seemingly mainly on inflation fears.
Anyone really liking any gold stocks now, in particular juniors?
i admit my gold stocks are likely too boring for the OTC players here: only have 3 long-term holds in IRA accounts - NTO, NXG, and EDV.TO.
I own some NXG, but only have been in for a few months.
The first two quarters they removed mostly low quality and waste ore from the Kemmess South pit and are expecting to be moving into the higher grade material for the rest of the year, so it appears they will have a good second half and the latest info shows they are on target for projected gold production this year.
The process of realizing operations at the Kemmess North site is moving forward fairly smoothly. The only obstacle I see there is finding a way to get the ore from the Kemmess North site to the processing facilities at Kemmess South. If I remember correctly, there were discussing a tunnel with a conveyor belt, but it may have changed since I checked last.
Also, the latest PR was regarding a merger with Young-Davidson Mines and acquired operations in Alberta Canada. I haven't done much DD on that but I plan to this weekend.
I do have some internet aerial photos of their operations, (though a bit outdated), including the latest Young-Davidson property if you are interested.
I plan to hold NXG until the end of the year at least, and see what happens from there.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
yeah i haven't checked in on NXG for awhile. awhile back i looked into gold stocks and allocated 50% to NTO, 40% to EDV.TO, and 10% to NXG, those were my 3 favorites. but i basically put them away as long-term holds and only check up on them once a month or so. i did see the merger news but, like you, was planning on researching that this weekend.
i also agree that historically gold has been very cyclical, the array of factors that play on gold prices are often contradictory and complex though, at least for me. i'd be very cautious in terms of playing with currencies etc, that is complex too and not for the faint of heart. as an example, gold is often viewed as an "absolute" currency or anto-dollar, so that when the dollar goes down, gold often goes up in relative terms. but - lately the dollar has been going up *along* with gold going up, seemingly mainly due to inflation fears overriding the anti-dollar relationship.
is funny if you go to kitco or some of the other metals sites and read the articles, a whole lot of "experts" widely disagree on factors at play and where gold is headed. partly for that reason, i mainly just picked a few gold companies i liked best and split a small % of my overall holdings between them. i'd rather spend my time researching small promising companies than struggling to figure out where gold is headed.
-------------------------
"My answer is bring them on." — George Bush on Iraqi insurgents attacking U.S. forces, Washington, D.C., July 3, 2003
Posted by silverbull on :
I have some NXG, PGOL and DROOY. They are all long term plays. Short term I like SLGLF and APLL. RTP is going crazy right now, they are a worldwide mining company into all mineerals from coal to diamonds to iron ore. (I work for a subsidiary of theirs). They are making huge profits on copper and iron ore.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
here's the PR about NXG and young-davidson merging:
first thing i notice from yesterday's trading is that NXG lost 3% (on a day when most gold companies were up 2-3%) and ODM gained 2% on the merger, so am guessing that NXG shareholders were less than pleased with the merger terms.
going through the past 200 or so posts on the yahoo NXG board, hoping for some perspective and to get the "pulse" of the NXG shareholder mood based on this merger news: there is nothing, a bunch of worthless posts, people cheerleading or bashing with no basis.
clearly they are a junior company - no real income, mild ~$150k losses per Q for expenses. stock has been pretty flat the last year or so.
will keep looking into, but - guess it all boils down to how good the Young property pans out. they talk about the resources, ie:
" Acquisition of one and a half million resource ounces of gold which include almost half a million ounces of gold (Measured & Indicated Resources) within a low-strip ratio open pit configuration and slightly more than one million ounces of gold (Inferred Resources) in a low-cost bulk mineable underground configuration. "
but of course "in-the ground ounces" doesn't mean much, in the end it comes down to how cheaply you can get it out, how gold prices are doing especially in relation to if the company hedged or not, etc.. only time will tell if this was a successful gamble by NXG to grow larger.
in terms of time frame, looks like won't be immediate, from the PR:
"- Post acquisition exploration program is scheduled to begin in early 2006 with an initial Cdn$3 million diamond-drilling program focusing on the many established targets within the claim package."
so perhaps in the short term NXG fell a bit yesterday based on the fact that for awhile they will have to take on the expenses of Young (including the $3M to drill) without getting any cash flow back from production.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
the problem in trying to evaluate in particular junior gold companies is - imho it is very difficult to interpret data and PR's. they all have to do with terms like "oz/short ton", VEZ zones, vertical strike distances, reefs, geophysical peaks, isolated geochemical anomalies, linear parallel beds, paleozoic sediments, airborne magnetic surveys, mafic volcanic mineralization, channel samping, you name it. i have a couple hard science degrees and am generally a geek willing to learn new scientific things, but - don't even pretend to fully comprehend the full significance of every single term used.
plus, of course all the junior companies try to couch it in the best terms possible, and hype up "xxxM inferred gold ounces in the ground!" and all that. honestly, imho i don't put much stock at all in the whole "ounces in the ground" stuff - it all boils down to: can you drag it out *profitably*.
this is part of why i like EDV.TO: their management seems intelligent and geologically skilled. i leave it up to *them* to decide which juniors are promising, they know better than me. they were smart enough to fnance companies like NTO very early on, that's a good enough track record for me. also, they can make $ off the financing, even if the junior companies don't end up panning out. if the companies *DO* pan out, they can make a ton off warrants. i also like their modest dividend and that they trade at a whopping discount to NAV (trading at 3.62, NAV 5.04 as of 8/31 before the bumpup in gold last week).
Posted by Superbee383 on :
Hi Blue, have you ever checked out Goldcorp Inc (GG)? I used to have this one. Bought it at 13+, but sold it a few months later. It has a small dividend that's distributed monthly. I wanted to get back in, but I'm not sure if it's peaked or not. Just curious on your thoughts. Thanks.
Posted by Raptorsrule on :
hey guys...not in this one but watching the chart...KRY...looks like it could move up
One company I am familiar with in gold is Novastar (NVAS) . .
Although gold is not their hot-point in my book, I thought this might be as good place as any to give a heads up and keep on the radar . .
Anyway, another of the company's foci is the mining of Thorium (Th), which I understand to be a peaceful alternative to Uranium for nuclear power, as it does not become weapons-usable upon degrading.
One source I read from indicated that there is much more energy available in Thorium than either Uranium or fossil fuels, as it exist in 3x more abundance than Uranium. However, it's not expected to be important for energy until some time down the road.
A recent PR indicated that the comany acquired the rights to a new mine for the next 99 years.
Anyway .. just something that I came across . . could be totally off-base about future potential, but thought I'd throw it out there! GL all
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
huh, haven't heard of thorium since way back in school [...blue vaguely struggles in his feeble brain to remember his periodic table...].
"Thorium is now thought to be about three times as abundant as uranium and about as abundant as lead or molybdenum. The metal is a source of nuclear power. There is probably more energy available for use from thorium in the minerals of the earth's crust than from both uranium and fossil fuels. Any sizable demand from thorium as a nuclear fuel is still several years in the future. Work has been done in developing thorium cycle converter-reactor systems. Several prototypes, including the HTGR (high-temperature gas-cooled reactor) and MSRE (molten salt converter reactor experiment), have operated. While the HTGR reactors are efficient, they are not expected to become important commercially for many years because of certain operating difficulties."
in reviewing a bit more, for example from this link:
looks like thorium has been researched and used especially in russia and india, but also has some caveats, ie:
"Problems include the high cost of fuel fabrication due partly to the high radioactivity of U-233 which is always contaminated with traces of U-232; the similar problems in recycling thorium due to highly radioactive Th-228, some weapons proliferation risk of U-233; and the technical problems (not yet satisfactorily solved) in reprocessing. Much development work is still required before the thorium fuel cycle can be commercialised, and the effort required seems unlikely while (or where) abundant uranium is available. Nevertheless, the thorium fuel cycle, with its potential for breeding fuel without the need for fast-neutron reactors, holds considerable potential long-term. It is a key factor in the sustainability of nuclear energy."
which i see is linked with your NVAS, seanwill: the Thorium Power CEO Seth Grae has a seat on the Novastar board:
"In addition to leveraging existing energy industry and government relationships, Mr. Grae will work with Novastar's executive team to effectively structure and implement a wide range of international business transactions in the areas of nuclear non-proliferation and energy generation."
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
superbee, i also looked into GG a bit back when i was researching gold stocks in more detail. it was #4 on my list and i almost bought some, obviously it would have been a better choice than NXG, ah well.
they seem to have low cost, are profitable, and growing, and pay a dividend; those are all good.
but, i agree with you - they've run up quite a bit, to the point where their forward P/E is fairly lofty at 30. for me personally, (a) i hate to buy run-up stocks, even though often they of course keep running and (b) i tend to deal with things like logic and P/E, but of course the market is often illogical, momo-based, and sometimes leaves P/E considerations in the dust.
so if you wanted my honest opinion, personally i'd be a bit wary of GG only because it's had a whopping gain lately: a straight line up from 12 in may to 20+ now. that's almost a double. i always look at things in terms of risk/reward proposition, and there's no doubt the risk part with GG is much higher now at 20 than it was back at 12.
but - of course if you read around the threads here you see that i sell too early all the time. and of course many in the "you have to pay for quality" camp would disagree with me and say that GG looks like a good buy now. if gold *does* go to 500/oz, i'm sure GG would continue to do well.
good luck whichever you decide, buy vs stay on the sidelines.
quote:Originally posted by Superbee383: Hi Blue, have you ever checked out Goldcorp Inc (GG)? I used to have this one. Bought it at 13+, but sold it a few months later. It has a small dividend that's distributed monthly. I wanted to get back in, but I'm not sure if it's peaked or not. Just curious on your thoughts. Thanks.
Posted by seanwill on :
Thanks for the info blue. . Just something I'm keeping an eye on for the not so near future, hahah Posted by blue_in_MI on :
doubt can hold it, but - gold +8.40 today to 467-range, +1.8% on the day on top of last week's gains. most gold stocks up only mildly if at all, NXG is up about 7-8% though.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
mild pullback yesterday, but - gold still looking pretty frisky, pushing 472 now
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
Gold is "holding up after the Federal Reserve's rate increase," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
The latest U.S. rate increase should have been the catalyst for a move lower in the precious metal, but global purchases of gold have been sufficiently strong to cancel out the Fed, he said.
The "rate increase on top of hurricane damage means that a recession is increasingly on the horizon," Schmidt said, adding such a combination is "bad news for dollar and deficits."
From here, prices will likely "see some backing and filling but overall, these markets remain healthy," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "If the recent dollar rally stalls and turns south this would certainly underpin the precious metals markets," he said.
Posted by keithsan on :
gold going up and so is the dollar.
one of these 2 are wrong, gold and dollar don't run together.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
maybe it was gold that was "wrong" keithsan, pulled back to 463.
honestly, i just dunno with gold. i go back to my original thoughts about it in the first post of this thread:
"gold is danged hard to figure: so many people claiming so many different pulls on it. some view it as purely an inflation hedge, some view it as really the "anti-dollar", some look at demand for things like jewelry and ignore other influences. probably all have a grain of truth, but - at least for me - is tough to sort out all the influences both positive and negative on gold prices."
i find gold companies interesting, and i "like" metals. even collect some coins with my kids.
but - i really only look at it as appropriate for a very small % of one's investments, or for *very* experienced traders to try to play short-term. just too danged hard to figure out otherwise. i like a few gold companies and will continue to hold them, but - as for stepping in and doing a lot more gold investing, just not for me.
Posted by keithsan on :
IMO gold broke 3 year uptrend and dollar broke 3 year downtrend.
dollar is hitting resistance at 90.
so dollar should continue IMO but thats just tech.
If i look fundamentally supposedly gold will rise with recession but it rose without it for 3 years so...
don't know.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gold looked like was going to tank at the open but then bounced back to 466-467 range, looks like a lot of indecision and uncertainty in the gold markets in the moment.
gold stocks slightly higher today - NTO +6%, EDV.TO +5%, GG +1%, NXG unch
Posted by NaturalResources on :
After Hours News!
Northgate Discovers New Mineralization at Kemess North
up again, down again: gold back down this am. mainly seems to be on the strength of the USD, and forecasts of higher interest rates. interesting article discussing the pullback:
gold has an interesting "lunatic fringe", is amusing to scan some of the goldbug message boards at times. some people are actually convinced that the entire US economy is going to collapse, and that gold will become the true monetary system once it does. some amusing posts in various places by people actually convinced that they will be able to trade gold coins for things like ammo and canned corn once the US goes back to the stone ages after the economy completely collapes.
uh...right.
Posted by jimbo1969 on :
Gold futures fall as much as $4
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch Last Update: 9:59 AM ET Sept. 27, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell as much as $4 an ounce Tuesday morning, pressured by weakness in crude prices and strength in the U.S. dollar.
"With energy prices taking a breather and the dollar firmer off hawkish comments from Fed members, we would expect ... weakness in December gold with profit taking possibly pressuring prices back to support between $462.30 and $460," said Nell Sloane, analyst at NSFutures.com. See Currencies.
"However, given the uncertainty in the energy complex in regard to refining capacity and oil production, a down side correction in gold should be limited," she said in daily commentary.
Gold for December delivery fell to a low of $465.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was last at $466.50, down $3.
"The precious metals are holding up fairly well in light of the dollar's overnight strength," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.
"This just bolsters my opinion that a low was made in December gold and, should my outlook for the dollar actually come to fruition, we'll look back in a few weeks and see that the decline in the dollar was the catalyst for what should be new highs in gold and silver prices," he said.
Other metals futures in New York were mixed.
December silver lost 6.5 cents to trade at $7.30 an ounce and December copper shed 1.65 cents, or 1%, to $1.72 a pound after tapping a record of $1.74 on Monday.
December palladium rose $1.25 to stand at $199 an ounce and October platinum added $1 to $918.50 an ounce.
Tracking inventories, copper supplies were down 376 short tons at 8,074 as of late Monday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were down 44,689 troy ounces at 116.8 million, while gold inventories stood at 6.04 million troy ounces, down 611 troy ounces from the previous session.
Indexes tracking the metals-mining sector headed lower, with a 1.7% fall in the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) to 238.59 leading the declines.
The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index ($XAU: news, chart, profile) fell 1.5% to trade at 109.99 and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX: news, chart, profile) traded at 99.1, down 1.6%.
Among the bigger losers, shares of Kinross Gold (KGC: news, chart, profile) fell 3% and Meridian Gold (MDG: news, chart, profile) lost over 2%.
Posted by weatherbill on :
I'm selling because I'm buying more BTSI
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
continued bounces up and down, gold back up to 469-range. most gold stocks up about 2%, NXG up about 7% today (though didn't move at all yesterday on the new mineralization find news).
"A combination of some light dollar weakness, in tandem with some very strong energy markets, brought the funds back to gold and silver," said David Meger of Alaron Trading in Chicago.
"It was pretty apparent that you were seeing buying into dips when you look at these markets over the last two days," he continued.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gold rally definitely fizzled a bit, now back around 462.
still, some good reports lately by a few companies discussed in this thread. NXG had a nice last Q, moved up a bit:
like i said before, i'm not real big into gold, too hard to figure out. but - still holding both of these, plus NTO.
Posted by Silverrado on :
I think the best gold stocks to buy right now are juniors. I have been looking into a couple of juniors that are in Mexico. Palmarejo (PJO) and Paramount Gold(PGDP)I was surprised to find them in very good company. I ran across this report by Canaccord Capital, below is an excerpt from it, after reading this I picked up the cheapest of the two juniors’ (Paramount). after reading the report At .80 cents I think I think this is a great buy.This area looks very good.
Happy reading: Mexico continues to be an attractive choice for mineral exploration/development companies. In 2004, Mexico attracted US$154 million in exploration investment, second only to Peru with US$196 million in exploration dollars spent in Latin America. Important factors driving the interest in Mexico include a strong mining tradition dating back to the Spanish in the 1700s, solid geological potential, unexplored or under explored areas, good communications and infrastructure, stable mining law, experienced labour pool, political stability, no restrictions on capital flows, and proximity to North America. We have reviewed five North American mineral exploration/developing companies advancing epithermal gold (Au)/silver (Ag) prospects in the Sierra Madres. Within this report, we use a number of criteria to assess the companies and their underlying Au/Ag assets. Company Symbol/Exchange Rating Target INITIATING COVERAGE Alamos Gold Inc. AGI : TSX SPEC BUY C$6.25 Gammon Lake Resources Inc. GAM : TSX HOLD C$8.85 Kimber Resources Inc. KBR : TSX SPEC BUY C$2.25 Minefinders Corp Ltd.* MFL : TSX HOLD C$6.50↑ Palmarejo Gold Corp. PJO : TSX-V SPEC BUY Y C$3.70 *transitioning coverage from Graeme Currie. Source: Canaccord Capital
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
surprised so few posts about gold this week, finally broke the 500 mark, a solid week all-around for most metals actually. interestingly though, gold itself did better than most gold stocks this last week.
EDV.TO finally broke the $4 mark, i still can't find a better gold stock than endeavour.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
still surprised not much gold talk on this board, has had a heckuva run lately up to about 540/oz.
endeavour - EDV.TO, NTO, NXG all hit 52-week highs today. have been adding more EDV.TO periodically on dips, which have been few and far between lately. they released yet another solid Q right before the holidays
any gold bugs out there have any opinion of GV (on the AMEX)?
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Blue, my favorite part of that link is:
"With metal prices continuing at record levels, our cash flow in the coming year should be excellent and we will easily meet our goal of becoming debt free by the middle of 2006"
I am thinking about grabbing some more shares of NXG soon.
I haven't heard of GV, I'll check it out though.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: ....on an even more tangential note, Purl brought up GPXM here, my only other metal holding is i have a teeny bit in a similar moly play - ROK.V. a little surprising to me that moly prices bounced and moved up to $35/lb but stocks like GPXM and ROK.V have gone nowhere....
GPXM touched it's previous 52wk high in intra-day trading on friday.
Posted by Rbreb13 on :
NXG has been pretty steady riser. Wish I owned more/ had more $$ to get more.
Posted by wallymac on :
I'm new to both investing and this forum. In the short time I have been trading gold producers have been of particular interest. I wish I had found this thread earlier. I currently have positions in KRY, CBJ and EKWX.
Being new I would appreciate any insight I could get on these stocks. Thank You.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i did notice GPXM had a nice little bump up lately, i assume because people liked the 10KSB/A and 10QSB/A from thursday, though i did not have time to read yet. roca seemingly just got a good deal on a mill and concentrator.
i admit that the wandering price of moly makes me a little nervous with both of these: from 35 in september down to 23.50 now. i like both GPXM and ROK and both seem to have both good sites and good plans to fast-track the mines into production, but - is certainly not helping them that moly keeps dipping.
haven't heard of those 3 gold stocks, wallymac - what things that you like caused you to take a position in them? in doing a brief look at the first one (KRY), i see that it lost a fair chunk of money last year, but that cramer is pumping it because he liked their gold project in venezuela. did you share his sentiments?
Posted by wallymac on :
I got into it prior to cramer's pump. A relative of mine recently purchased the wizetrade and wizefinder program. I started using it right after christmas and KRY came up on the wizefinder program. I then started researching and liked the fact that it was a "Gold Mine"haha. I had also read some articles about gold mining operations stating that they were about to increase. With this stock trading around $2 at the time and having read about their aquisition at Las Cristinas, I decide to take a chance. CBJ was also a stock I found through Wizefinder and then read an article of their profits increasing by 42%. Being new I thought good news would mean a company would increase in value but as I have learned many companies seem to go down when I've read good news. EKWX I actually found on one of the threads here and after researching it liked what I read so I jumped in. I look at all of these as mid to long term investments. I have done a crash course, spending 10 to 12 hours a day learning about the stock market and penny stocks. I probably know just enough to get myself in trouble and that is why I'm looking for some help.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
have to say that i'm a little surprised that gold has kept it's run up for this sustained period, anyone else have any thoughts?
NTO (3.87), NXG (2.26) and EDV.TO (4.85) all hitting new highs yet again today, with gold around 562/oz
Posted by glassman on :
it's going to conitnue to go up as long as Iran is forcing instability and uncertainty in the oil market... oil runs inflation, inflation runs gold....
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i mostly agree glass, but - sometimes those relationships run a bit awry. at times what look to be linear relationships, can morph in quite nonlinear ways. gold seems to be stable and/or climing the last few days, whereas oil has been slipping. a big equation with a lot of terms: the dominant terms make sense, but sometimes the higher order effects kick in.
i dunno, at least for me it seems that way. maybe i don't pay enough attention to broader markets and trends, i tend to focus on individual stocks more than overall trends and causes/effects.
gold *still* inching up, as are seemingly all metals except maybe moly - gold now at the 570 mark.
EDV.TO tacked on another +9.1% yesterday alone.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
was inevitable, in retrospect: gold needed a sharp correction (from 570 down to 550). support kicked in though, will be interesting to see if it hovers in the 550 range or can make another push upward. we'll see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gold still bouncing around - sharp selloff a few weeks back, now back to 558ish again.
of the stocks mentioned in this thread, NXG has done the best over the last few weeks, bouyed by logging .18/share in yesterday's Q:
moly bounced a bit and seems to have stabilized in the 25 range.
NTO due for earnings march 6, should be interesting. i'm ignoring their short-term movements though, am mainly interested in the long-term agua rica potential. NTO's website is really quite informative, actually
impressive, at least to me - EDV is another long hold for me.
Posted by AtHomeDad on :
Still undervalued.Good buy which pays dividends.
Goldcorp says '05 gold sales totaled 1.34M oz vs 428K oz MarketWatch SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Goldcorp Inc. Wednesday evening said gold sales in 2005 totaled 1.34 million ounces, compared to 427,600 ounces in 2004. Cash costs per ounce in 2005 were less than $25, compared to $115 in 2004, the Vancouver, British Columbia-based company said. Goldcorp will acquire certain Placer Dome Inc. [:ca:pdg] assets from Barrick Gold Corp. in a transaction scheduled to close April 1. Total gold production from the combined Goldcorp and Placer assets is expected to be 2 million ounces in 2006 and 2.4 million ounces in 2007
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: gold still bouncing around - sharp selloff a few weeks back, now back to 558ish again.
of the stocks mentioned in this thread, NXG has done the best over the last few weeks, bouyed by logging .18/share in yesterday's Q:
moly bounced a bit and seems to have stabilized in the 25 range.
NTO due for earnings march 6, should be interesting. i'm ignoring their short-term movements though, am mainly interested in the long-term agua rica potential. NTO's website is really quite informative, actually
impressive, at least to me - EDV is another long hold for me.
Still in NXG, they had great news on friday. Also, I'm still in GPXM. Their moly project is making great progress.
I'm still not in NTO but I have been watching it and Goldcorp for a while.
Posted by mastermind555 on :
copper is also in huge demand...check out PCU - 14% dividend, EPS 9.51, P/E 8.56,looking strong...$100 soon
im in GG long
Posted by Peaser01 on :
I might get back in CGHI this week. We'll see.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Watch NXG today, I'm not sure if we will experience a pullback after Friday's gap up or movement higher. Should move higher IMO, due to the news.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
pretty impressive day for metals, quite a bounceback from the dip of a few weeks ago.
of the stocks mentioned in this thread: NTO up 7% back close to 4 again, EDV.TO back over 6, GG up another 6.4% pushing 28, NXG new 52-wk high of 2.42, GPXM back to .40, and ROK +20% to a new 52-week high of .55.
gold pushing 570 again, silver up and over 10 for the first time since 1984:
who was it that mentioned SLW / silver wheaton in a recent thread? athomedad, maybe? whoever it was - nice pick. almost bought some at the time, and i should have, drats: up a whopping 12% today!
Posted by AtHomeDad on :
Thanks for the credit
"SLW all that glitters is not gold" posted 27 January, 2006 15:55 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Check it out. It remains a good buy Silver Wheaton
Posted by AtHomeDad on :
Monday should be Green
Updated:2006-03-05 08:57:16 Silver Wheaton Corp.: Record Silver Reserve and Resource Levels Achieved at Luismin BUSINESS WIRE VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)----Silver Wheaton Corp. (TSX:SLW)(AMEX:SLW) is pleased to report record levels of silver reserves and resources at the Luismin mines in Mexico. At December 31, 2005, the Luismin mines had proven and probable silver reserves of 45.4 million ounces, measured and indicated resources of 1.7 million ounces and inferred resources of 188.4 million ounces, an increase of 13% in reserves and 29% in inferred resources compared to December 31, 2004, after producing 7.7 million ounces during 2005.
Eduardo Luna, Chairman of the Company said: "With large increases in both reserves and resources at the San Dimas mine, we have demonstrated that the projected silver production growth at Luismin, to 13 million ounces by 2009, should be sustainable for the foreseeable future."
-------------------------------------------------------------------- Reserves - Luismin(1,4,5) -------------------------------------------------------------------- PROVEN & As of PROVEN PROBABLE PROBABLE December Ton- Cont- Ton- Cont- Ton- Cont- 31, 2005 nage Grade ained nage Grade ained nage Grade ained -------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER mt g Ag/t m oz mt g Ag/t M oz mt g Ag/t Mt San Dimas 1.42 447 20.4 1.83 401 23.6 3.25 421 44.0 San Martin 0.31 47 0.5 0.58 46 0.9 0.90 47 1.3 --- --- --- Totals 20.9 24.5 45.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------- Measured & Indicated Resources - Luismin(1,2,3,4,5) -------------------------------------------------------------------- MEASURED & As of MEASURED INDICATED INDICATED December Ton- Cont- Ton- Cont- Ton- Cont- 31, 2005 nage Grade ained nage Grade ained nage Grade ained -------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER mt g Ag/t m oz mt g Ag/t M oz mt g Ag/t Mt San Dimas - - - - - - - - - San Martin 0.02 204 0.2 0.20 234 1.5 0.22 231 1.7 --- --- --- Totals 0.2 1.5 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
silver still chugging along. gold still meandering around, trying to find a trading range to settle into. copper very strong, moly seems to have stabilized around 25. palladium finally seems to be stabilizing above 300 for the first time in years.
i dunno what the heck rhodium really is used for, but - check out the 5-yr curve on kitco sometime. beautiful parabola:
gold stocks somewhat erratic: GG holding steady, EDV and NXG dipped a bit, NTO still up near yearly highs. ROK.V fell back to earth.
a few posts into this thread i mentioned my gold stock allocation was: 50% NTO, 40% EDV, and 10% NXG. the reason i like NTO so much more than NXG is simple: Agua Rica:
Just a huge reserve, owned by NTO. NXG's main mine is approaching the last stages of it's production phase, so they are dependent upon Kerness North exploration. Of course, who knows how it will work out in the end: NXG may triple while NTO stagnates. but - i still am betting that somehow down the road, NTO will find value out of Agua Rica.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Blue,
Still holding my original position in NXG and even picked up some more on the last dip.
For the time being, NXG is dependent upon Kemmess North Exploration, but that should change once the diamond drilling results come back from the Young-Davidson property sometime this month.
NXG shares your concerns and I believe mention was made in either the recent PR's or the Quarterly Conference Call of bringing another mine into production to provide NXG with some diversification in case things don't pan out with the Kemmess North.
I'm still in GPXM, though I took my original investment off the table on and am now riding on free shares. They are making great progress and I expect they should be in the final phases of their 1000-ton bulk sample sometime this summer.
Still doing my DD on NTO but so far I like what I see and I will mostly likely take a position sometime in the near future.
GLTA,
NR.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: ... i dunno what the heck rhodium really is used for, but - check out the 5-yr curve on kitco sometime. beautiful parabola: ...
"Its primary use is as an alloying agent to harden platinum and palladium. Such alloys are used for furnace windings, thermocouple elements, bushings for glass fiber production, electrodes for aircraft spark plugs, and laboratory crucibles. It is useful as an electrical contact material as it has a low electrical resistance, a low and stable contact resistance, and is highly resistant to corrosion. Plated rhodium, produced by electroplating or evaporation, is exceptionally hard and is used for optical instruments. It has a high reflectance and is hard and durable. Rhodium is also used for jewelry, for decoration, and as a catalyst."
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
rhodium hit $4000/oz yesterday, dang - highest in 15 years. interesting article:
anyone know any good rhodium stocks?
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Comming up for NXG:
AMEX Third Annual Precious & Base Metals Investor Conference
March 30, 2006 New York, USA
And from the last conference call:
"We have already launched our 2006 diamond drilling campaign on the Young-Davidson property and are looking forward to initial results from this program beginning in April."
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
NR, i agree that it will be interesting to see how the Y-D drilling pans out. i don't know enough about the Y-D property to know if NXG got a good deal on it, but - i like the idea to expand. really i think they somewhat had to: didn't want to be dependant on just Kerness. i'll do a little more research on NXG, i admit am a little behind. still holding my small position in it.
i admit too i'm a little surprised (but not complaining) by NTO's strength, has really been on a tear lately. up about 10% this week despite gold being flat/down a bit. most of my NTO is in 401k, don't plan to sell for hopefully 10-15 years minimum. so honestly the short-term movements don't mean a whole lot to me. but, still nice to see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
EDV.TO ($6 even) releases 2Q results on Monday after close, should be an interesting week for it:
honestly, not sure what to expect: NAV peaked at 7.10, then fell back to 6.98 last month. a few of the juniors they heavily bankrolled have done quite well the last few months, for example: CMM.V/century mining quadrupled last month:
NTO and SLW/WHT have been mentioned frequently in this thread: EDV also participated in financing these years ago, and made out quite nicely on a boatload of warrants.
2Q results should be interesting Monday, we'll see how it goes. still holding, still my 2nd favorite/2nd largest metals stock after NTO.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
$1.57/sh profit on the Q, not bad for a $6.45 stock (closed at yearly high today, up 7.5%).
another strong day for metals in general, actually.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
amazing - every time i think they have to pull back, metals keep on chugging north. gold * 578 right now, though silver is the really impressive one: 11.34.
EDV three days in a row of making new 52-wk highs, 6.85 close - roughly a double in the last 6 months. which is actually pretty tame return compared to some like SLW, heckuva chart on that baby:
OT. Well, There was finally a little news out for Grifco. Had NTO for a year.
PS
And don't be stingy with your research. Posted by blue_in_MI on :
you are correct RY, quite an interesting week for GFCI. being a patient/stubborn SOB, of course am still holding my GFCI, will have to update that GFCI thread sometime.
can't say i'm surprised by the mild pullback in metals today, was probably overdue. no pullback for EDV.TO though - helluva week: 7.62 close, another big day.
stingy with research?! i post quite a bit of research here. though i think only about 3-4 people ever read my ramblings, since purl left i mostly blabber on to myself, heh.
Posted by AtHomeDad on :
or check out Medline's Silver Ag Dressings There are other brands. This market in health care is hot. Prevent a woung infection and you are saving a ton of money. (Spend a little and save a lot) SLW & GG news (here is a win win
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MARCH 31, 2006 TSX:SLW AMEX:SLW Silver Wheaton and Goldcorp Complete Amended Luismin Contract
Vancouver, British Columbia – Silver Wheaton Corp. (“Silver Wheaton”) is pleased to announce that it has completed the previously announced amendment of the Luismin silver contract effective March, 30, 2006. Goldcorp Inc. (“Goldcorp”) and Silver Wheaton have amended the original silver purchase agreement, increasing the minimum number of ounces of silver to be delivered over the 25 year contract period by 100 million ounces, to 220 million ounces, and waiving any capital expenditure contributions previously required to be paid by Silver Wheaton. In consideration for these amendments, Silver Wheaton has issued to Goldcorp 18 million common shares and a US$20 million Promissory Note, increasing Goldcorp’s ownership to 126 million common shares of Silver Wheaton, or 62% of the outstanding shares. The total consideration of US$150 million is equal to the approximate value of Silver Wheaton’s share of the future capital expenditures estimated over the remaining life of the original agreement.
Production of silver at the Luismin mines, which in 2005 approximated 8 million ounces, is expected to average approximately 9.5 million ounces for 2006, 2007 and 2008, increasing to 13 million ounces per annum thereafter. As of December 31, 2005, the Luismin mines had proven and probable reserves of 45.4 million ounces of silver, measured and indicated resources of 1.7 million ounces of silver and inferred resources of 188.4 million ounces of silver.
Randy Smallwood, P. Eng., Vice President, Corporate Development of Silver Wheaton is the “qualified person” as defined in National Instrument 43-101 who has reviewed the proposed expansion of ore production at the San Dimas mine and has reviewed and approved of the contents of this news release.
Silver Wheaton is the only public mining company with 100% of its revenue from silver production. The Company expects to have annual silver sales of 15 million ounces in 2006, increasing to 20 million ounces by 2009 and thereafter. Silver Wheaton is unhedged and well positioned for further growth.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
congrats to all GPXM holders - very nice the last week or so: hit .55 today. wish i had bought some: almost did several time, but - never quite got around to it. still holding my ROK.V roca mines moly play which has done quite nicely, but - not as well as GPXM.
most metal stocks tailed off late afternoon along with the broader markets, but - yet another green day for most, with metals prices holding strong. NTO another high, and: EDV.TO another 8% gain for an $8.20 close, beauty.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: congrats to all GPXM holders - very nice the last week or so: hit .55 today. wish i had bought some: almost did several time, but - never quite got around to it. still holding my ROK.V roca mines moly play which has done quite nicely, but - not as well as GPXM.
most metal stocks tailed off late afternoon along with the broader markets, but - yet another green day for most, with metals prices holding strong. NTO another high, and: EDV.TO another 8% gain for an $8.20 close, beauty.
Great day for both Gold and Silver. Silver reached $11.90/oz and Gold touched $591/oz!
In retrospect, I sold my GPXM too soon, but then again there is nothing wrong with taking money off the table if you have a chance. I still have a few free shares, and if this company follows through and gets Ashdown into production, those few shares will bring a good return.
I'm still holding all of my NXG. I was considering possibly taking a small portion of it off the table, but with gold reaching for $600/oz I think I will hold on to all of it and see what happens over the next month. NXG also has good news pending so with either a good PR and/or continued rally in gold, NXG will make new 52wk highs IMO.
I recently took a position in PCFG hoping for a quick turn-around. Production at the Black Canyon Mine was set to start Q1/06, but has been delayed due to last minute adjustments. I will probably sell most shares at the first chance I get unless my continued DD on this company convinces me otherwise.
Looking at SLW as a silver play, and I also have NTO on my radar. I don't have much money free however, so they will have to wait until a few other plays pan out. Hopefully I won't miss out on the ride up.
Blue,
I don't consider your posts "ramblings", they are very informative DD and greatly appreciated.
GLTA, NR
Posted by nar31977 on :
I am loving my GG
Posted by AtHomeDad on :
Me T:) GG yeh
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
sure seems like there would have to be at least a short-term correction here soon: 52-week high closes a few times a week lately for many of these stocks (including NTO and EDV.TO yet again today). anyone tempted to take any profits? most of my NXG,NTO,EDV is in roth ira so i am just leaving it be, but i admit that i might sell the 10-20% in regular accounts. no doubt they will go through the roof if i sell any, but promptly plummet if i hold them all, heh
interesting to see the performance of these stocks mentioned in the thread, and how they correlate. GPXM definitely wins the match for best return:
"Because super messages specify a price and size, they offer a unique opportunity to gauge the interest of institutional investors."
Still holding 100% of my NXG.
Do your own DD, and GLTA,
NR.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
that was my super buy, NR. i was trying to enter 200 shares, but my daughter spilled jelly on the "0" on my keyboard so it stays stuck down.
i hope they take a check, or i can at least put my 1989 station wagon up as collateral until i can search under all the couch cushions for some more cash...
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: that was my super buy, NR. i was trying to enter 200 shares, but my daughter spilled jelly on the "0" on my keyboard so it stays stuck down.
i hope they take a check, or i can at least put my 1989 station wagon up as collateral until i can search under all the couch cushions for some more cash...
Heheh, I think the station wagon should cover it.... Keep your eye on ALL gold stocks today gold is sitting at 596/oz and is set to break 600/Oz today IMO.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
600 gold and 12 silver, a little article about it:
the kitco chart (which is usually where i go for metals data) actually shows a peak of about 596 - a little confused about the slight differential.
GG and NXG with the best days today, NTO broke 5 early but pulled back, as did some other metals stocks. EDV yet another high but this time only up 2% instead of the usual 5% lately.
to me the most interesting day in the metals stocks discussed here was: ROK.V. tried to break out on 10x normal volume, but - couldn't quite make it, only ended up 7% on the day. ROK has doubled since i bought it, but actually underperformed some of the other moly plays like GPXM and adanac (or is it adenac?). will be interesting to see if roca can play catchup, i do like their project. a lot of these little moly plays seem to be about about getting the metals to market quickly. will be interesting to see how roca does this spring and summer in regards to getting the mining operation and mill set up. unlike other rising metals, moly has really stayed pretty flat the last month: pinned to 25.
some zinc stocks have really moved lately, including breakwater:
"Total annual operating costs (mine, mill and overhead) are estimated at US$7.2 million (approximately $100/tonne) and start-up capital of only US$12.5 million. Payback of start-up capital is approximately 9 months from construction startup or 4 months from mill startup."
that is really pretty good - 4 months from when they start up the mill, to when they've broken even. i haven't ever seen a number that low, part of why i am in roca.
by comparison, here is NTO's analysis of the economics of their agua rica project:
"Based on the assumptions outlined above, at current metal prices of copper US$1.55/lb, gold US$425/oz and molybdenum US$37.50/lb, Agua Rica would yield an NPV at an 8% discount rate of US$4.5 billion, a pre-production capital payback of 1.9 years..." so - 2 years based on these numbers (gold is of course now 600 instead of 425, but moly has dipped to 25).
basically for NTO - could hopefully pay off the $1B or so required to start up agua rica in hopefully a few years. then they still have the next 25-30 years to mine it after capital payback. of course - the economics of both are quite sensitive to metals prices.
needless to say, these are on ridiculously different scales: agua rica is one of the biggest untapped gold/copper/moly deposits in the world, ROK has a much smaller deposit and is a tiny company by comparison. NTO's market cap is about $700M larger than ROK's: ~$720M to $20M.
Posted by 2Create on :
I'm long on NXG since Friday....Also Friday bought another very exciting mining company EZM !
Great day for NXG, new 52wk high of $2.66 but closed lower at $2.63 and is holding steady in AH trading.
Those of you watching NXG please note that according to Lycos Finance there was a super sell message at open today of 40,000 shares at a price of ~ $2.60/Shr. ($100,000 USD).
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
mild pullback in metals today, can't say it's suprising. the length and momentum of the latest run up in metals has really been amazing.
to help put it in perspective, EDV closed down a dime today, and it broke a stringe of twelve (!) straight up days, starting with the 5.68 close back on march 21, to the $9-even close today.
we'll see how things go next week, wouldn't surprise me if metals churned around for awhile and maybe consolidated some more. but - who knows, i admit that i'm lousy trying to predict broader market movements.
Posted by R1Man on :
Gold isn't following the NORM. Its usually pretty cheap right now if you look at any GOLD stock and look at the charts. I have been swinging gold stocks for a few years now and this year is confussing. Normally gold stocks are at the lowest in march-may.....then come late october-january....they are at their highs. Now, I'm shocked that its breaking the trend but the economy is getting a little better. 9-11 was a long time ago now and people are forgetting about how scary the stock market was then, or maybe people are now getting comfortable with their new low income pay (concessions)....that is all I can think of that would make sence....unless there is a scarce supply of GOLD????
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
very nice day for NXG - up 8%. have to admit - just sold my small share at 2.78, was overweight in metals with the recent runups, and i couldn't bring myself to part with any EDV or NTO.
NXG holders will be encouraged to hear: i am sure NXG will promptly go straight to $4, i ALWAYS sell too early!
Posted by The Owl on :
Yep, oil going to record too...$1.20 to go to get to recent High..
I'm sticking with profitable small oil services companies like PMHH for now (due to soaring rig rates really), though NXG looks definitely worth a look...
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Still holding 100% of my NXG. What a great day today, and to top it off, AH news just out!!!
NORTHGATE INTERSECTS 10.35 GRAMS PER TONNE GOLD OVER 40 FEET AT YOUNG-DAVIDSON
I plan to hold my free shares for at least a year to see if this company can pull it off. Do your own DD and GLTA.
NR.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
quote:Originally posted by NaturalResources: NORTHGATE INTERSECTS 10.35 GRAMS PER TONNE GOLD OVER 40 FEET AT YOUNG-DAVIDSON
ha ha haha, see, i told you!! i always sell too early - this comes out just a few hours after i sell. amazing - you could make a mint buying whatever i sell, heh! ah well, such is life. should be a nice day for NXG. hope it hits 3 this week for you, NR.
silver pushing 13, gold at 602; really quite an amazing run particularly for silver - barely any pullbacks.
am working in germany this week so a little odd following the markets 6 hours later than usual...
Posted by samir on :
mining in general is bullish ... I am in TRGD.OB and SBAM.PK
Posted by NaturalResources on :
NXG hit a new 52wk high of $3.18/shr today. Volume since Monday is unbelievable, at ~6,000,000/day, more than 3x average.
Still holding 100% until at least Q1 results come out on May 3. Results should be phenomenal.
If you haven't seen it already, I recommend checking out Q4 05 results.
[ April 13, 2006, 23:37: Message edited by: NaturalResources ]
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
you're correct NR, very nice rebound by NXG, and nice to see it solidly above $3. clearly i should have lightened up 10% on my EDV, rather than selling my NXG too early (as usual) - ah well, the way it goes...
gold up a bit friday overseas with the US markets closed. will be interesting to see where it heads from here, now that it's hit the 600 range. if pressed to guess, i'd say that at least short-term, the "easy" money has been made for now in gold and metals, and that things might get choppy from here for awhile with metals bouncing around in an 8-10% trading range for awhile. i'm not too worried about major dips, because metals have entered enough people's radar that i think dips will be bought back up and not be overly severe. otoh, i also think that is going to take awhile for metals to step up to a new plateau: a lot of people have made nice gains on metals lately, and may be looking to lock them in on any upward surges. of course - who knows though, these are purely wild guesses on my part, and i frequently guess wrong, especially short-term.
long-term, much harder to say: depends on so many factors, from the US dollar to physical demand to the chinese pegging their currency to the trade defecit to pure momentum and psychology. who knows. my view is pretty much unchanged from the outset: imho it's a good idea to have a small % of one's portfolio in metals, just for diversity's sake, and will continue to do so. personally, i'm happy with 5%, but of course - who knows. 2 years out, gold could be at 400 or 800.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
copper hasn't been discussed much here, this mainly being a gold thread. is of related interest though: many gold mining companies here also produce a ton of copper: ie NTO's agua rica is also a huge copper deposit.
really amazing the run copper has had, one year chart is a thing of beauty, almost going parabolic lately with yet another new high at the overseas close friday:
interesting about the "danger thin ice" comments - at some point you'd think there'd have to be a correction, but sure a lot of momentum for metals at least at the moment. reminds me a bit of oil a year or two back - technically it definitely looked due for a major correction, but was a scary proposition to contemplate going short on it.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gold 616, really amazing thing to me though is silver and copper: just gone parabolic lately. silver up almost a buck over the last few days to 13.65, copper up about 6% over the last 24 hours, now pushing 3. dang.
NXG beauty of a day yesterday - 3.54 close, NTO 5 bucks even. EDV.TO seems to be consolidating in the low-mid 8's after it's big run - actually closed even yesterday. they released their new NAV on friday and showed a 1-month jump from 6.98 to 8.39, nice.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
NXG:
New 52wk high in intraday trading of $3.72/shr, but closed red at $3.45/shr.
According to Lycos Finance there was a "Buy Super" message today for 250,000 shares ($814,500 USD), along with a smaller "Buy Interest" of 100,000 shares ($362,000 USD).
Given that institutional investors are still interested at this price, I think we are still heading higher and could possibly see $4.50/shr within the next 2 weeks. If the Q1 results are as good as I think they are going to be, we might even see $5.00/shr by June.
Today's pullback was long overdue and nothing to worry about IMO, and I still plan to hold until at least after earnings on May 03.
GLTA and DYODD, NR.
Posted by ebradsha on :
The abundance of international issues concerning oil is going to keep fueling instability in the market, thus keeping gold at record highs.
WITM is a stock you should check out to capitalize on this.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
After Hours news for NXG, look for another strong day tommorow.
Also, for those of you interested, there will be a conference call tommorow at 10AM EST to discuss NXG's recent exploration results at Young-Davidson and its plans to accelerate the exploration phase of development of the project.
You can listen to the call by going to Northgate's web site at www.northgateminerals.com under Investor Info - Presentations page.
GLTA and DYODD, NR.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
copper at 3, had its biggest one-day gain in 18 years yesterday:
gold 624, silver now 14.10 after breaking 13 just two days ago.
so far at least - the parabola continues.
Posted by MrSQL on :
I think WITM is worth keeping your eye on it's up 40% since monday. What do you guys think?
Wits Basin Announces Letter of Intent to Acquire Silver Interest; Former Mexico Silver...
Wits Basin Announces Letter of Intent to Acquire Silver Interest; Former Mexico Silver Producer to be Revitalized
MINNEAPOLIS--(Business Wire)--April 19, 2006-- Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc. (OTCBB:WITM) today announced it has signed a letter of intent with Journey Resources Corp. (TSX-V:JNY) and its wholly-owned subsidiary Minerales Jazz S.A. de C.V., whereby Wits Basin may acquire an undivided 50% interest in certain mining claims comprising the Vianey Mine Concession located in the state of Guerrero, Mexico approximately 250 kilometers south of Mexico City and 160 kilometers north of Acapulco.
LOCATION
The property comprises approximately 5,022 hectares (12,400 acres) less than 2 kilometers from the town of Atzcala which hosts modern infrastructure and facilities as well as a sufficient labor pool. There is existing electrical power at the mine as a major power line passes near the property. On-site examinations by Journey personnel and available exploration data indicate a probability of discovering extensions to known silver-bearing veins on the property, both in the existing mine and the adjacent areas identified in the technical report, the Blakestad Report (dated of October 18, 2004 and revised March 10, 2005) by Rodney A. Blakestad J.D., C.P.G. Geological maps published by the Mexican Department of Mines identify a series of lead-zinc-gold occurrences approximately five kilometers northwest of the property. The new concessions have been staked to cover the projected extension of these known ore bodies and comprise part of the property package. The Blakestad Report confirms the potential that these known mineralized zones likely extend into the vicinity of the Vianey Mine.
EXPLORATION RESULTS TO DATE
A review of past calculations of potentially mineable tonnages of mineralization above the -75 meter level, including the most recent exploration activities completed in 1997, and as reported by Mr. Peter Hawley in his 2000 reserve and drill resource study, provides an estimated total in all categories of 345,020 metric tonnes grading 2.13% lead, 3.66% zinc and 269 grams of silver per ton, which at current metal prices would have an in-ground value in the order of US$250/ton. Mineralization at the Vianey Mine includes veins, breccias, lens and mantos of silver as well as poly-metallic (Pb-Zn) mineralization with local concentrations of gold and copper. Most of the veins are localized along NW-SE trending structures and E-W structures; the lenses occur in fault zones and as sulfide concentrations with calcite, gypsum and quartz between some bedding planes. Two major breccia zones of significance have been identified in the limestone, which are associated with calcite-gypsum-quartz gangue minerals and important amounts of associated silver. Recommendations in the Minerales Jazz March 2005 report, which are being followed up, include lithological and structural mapping and aerial photography, or high-resolution satellite imagery interpretation of the area. The object of the work will be to locate and orient approximately 3,230 meters of diamond core drilling to test the grade, thickness and continuity of mineralization at depth and along the strike. Management believes that the Vianey Mine and immediately contiguous property could host millions of tons of ore grade material. "With silver trading at a new 25-year high and base metals also into new high ground, we feel the outlook is for continued strong demand and prices," said Vance White, Wits Basin's CEO. White continues, "Despite current prices of about $13/oz, silver remains at a much lower multiple to gold than has otherwise been true historically and we believe it is appropriate for the Company to expose itself to a project of merit and strong technical attributes in this arena."
DEAL TERMS
In order to earn the 50% interest Wits Basin must:
1. Issue 100,000 shares of its common stock to Journey, by April 20, 2006, which initiates a 45 day due diligence period in order to have Wits Basin's consultants carry out a site visit, review technical data and research title work to be completed no later than June 15, 2006;
2. On or before June 15, 2006, issue 500,000 shares of its common stock and initiate a Program of Work as outlined in the Blakestad Report, a minimum expenditure of US$500,000 is required to be completed on or before December 31, 2006 for which a 25% interest will be earned in the property; and
3. On or before January 15, 2007, issue 500,000 shares of its common stock and initiate a secondary Program of Work with a minimum expenditure of US$500,000 to be completed on or before September 30, 2007 for which an additional 25% interest will be earned in the property.
About Wits Basin Precious Minerals Inc.
Posted by Frank Richards on :
WITM should be a great investment for the next 18 months. They already have permits in place for their Colorado mine and they should be able to prove the resources of this project by June or at the latest July. Once the mine is running they will create a huge amount of cash flow to fund the exploration of their other properties.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Big sell of today in both Gold and Silver.
Gold dropped from ~$645/oz to ~$615/oz and Silver dropped from ~14.30/oz to ~11.85/oz.
NXG took a hit today as well. I can only speculate this was a result of the sell-off of Gold today.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
yup, ouch! silver in particular: just hammered. a 19% drop in less than a day, never seen a commodity make that kind of gigantic move before in such a short time span: about 16 hours.
guess it's not too surprising, honestly i've been amazed at the length and power of the metals run.
the interesting thing now of course is: to see the length and severity of the correction. will it be short-term and prices will bounce up a bit? or will gold dip to mid-upper 500's? or will gold stay in a holding pattern around 590-600 and bounce around a bit? i dunno!
ROK.V was in the process of a big 2-day breakout when the rug got pulled out from metals and fell back, still a new all-time high for roca today though: very nice week moving from .56 to .73.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
From a post on Yahoo Message Board for NXG. Take it FWIW...
Desperate Act?
I heard from a very reliable source yesterday (April 19th) that the COMEX was meeting in emergency session. Knowing the reputation of this organization, I imagined that it certainly had to do with the current goings on in the precious metals market…especially silver.
It was obvious to just about everyone who knows about the massive short positions in gold and silver that a short squeeze of biblical proportions was underway. Bill Murphy over at Le Metropole Cafe had been shouting it from the rooftops for some time as the open interest numbers were indicating just that. Then Ted Butler’s latest commentary "A Cornered Rat?" put the icing on the cake.
The COMEX had been raising the margin requirements for silver at a pretty steady clip, with another one just announced for May…so I was wondering, as I sat at my computer terminal last night, what nefarious act they could come up with to put the kibosh on this parabolic rise in the gold and silver price. Well, I found out when I turned on the computer this morning…the dealers (commercials) had pulled their bids in the COMEX silver and gold pits.
Since Ted Butler won’t be writing for at least another week, I thought I’d comment for him. I could just see the dealers in the pits right now…standing there with their arms folded as the longs (including the tech funds) sold into a vacuum. Since there were no buyers…the price fell off a cliff immediately.
When the sellers did catch a bid, it was the desperate dealer shorts standing there with buckets to collect the equally desperate long positions that were being dumped. This is the engineered sell-off that Ted Butler had been waiting for for so long. This is brazen market manipulation at its worst…engineered by the very people are supposed to be preventing this sort of thing.
Is this the last desperate act of desperate men? I think it is. This is Cartel rearguard action at its finest. They are in a far better position to see things than we are. With the Iranian situation coming to a head within the next two weeks, the US is now in a position where it (probably in conjunction with a client state) must act against Iran or lose all credibility in the Middle East. The dealer shorts know that too. They also know all about peak oil, fiat currencies and the upcoming silver ETF…and want to be on the last stagecoach out of Dodge before everything comes unglued.
Hold onto your precious metals positions, boys…as this too shall pass!
Ed Steer, Director Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, In
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
nice bounce so far for gold: support held at 610, now back to 627. silver came back a little bit - in the mid-12's.
am hoping ROK.V continues it's breakout today - we'll see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
really quite a nice metals comeback today: gold 632, silver almost 13, copper and zinc also new highs (copper 3.10).
nice bounce for NXG - up 6+% today. heckuva week for ROK.V - up 35% this week, closed at .76. about time it got some respect, i admit is my favorite moly play and that i like their project even more than those of GPXM or AUA.V. still think roca could go quite a bit higher by the fall when they start production at MAX, we'll see.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Investors' gold dilemma: Buy on a dip, or wait.
Thursday's slide may continue, but so should the longer-term rally.
quote:NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - A plunge in gold prices and stocks Thursday may have been just the start of a needed correction in a sector that has surged substantially of late, analysts said.
As such, investors who are thinking of using the pullback as a point to get into gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds and gold stocks may want to wait a bit longer.
That's not to say that the price of gold and the underlying stocks won't move higher again -- most analysts say the so-called 'gold bull market' is far from over. However, both the price of gold and the underlying stocks could see further declines before the next leg up, the analysts said.
Gold has rallied around $160 over the last six months through Wednesday's close, with more than $100 of that amount coming since January. Over the last few weeks, gold has settled repeatedly at levels not seen since 1980, when it peaked at $875.
Gold stocks have surged in tandem, with the Amex Gold Bugs (Research) index rallying 44 percent over the last six months through Wednesday's close.
One of the things I like about Golden Phoenix is that its metal holdings are very diversified. They have Moly at Ashdown and Northern Champion, plus, Gold and Silver at Mineral Ridge.
Right now, Mineral Ridge has been idle due to winter since September, 2005 when gold prices were around $470/oz and silver was hovering near 7.50/oz.
IMO? With the Gold and Silver markets as hot as they are right now, any news of action at Mineral Ridge will send this one higher.
Per Company Website:
quote:The Company is preparing to idle the leach operations at some point in September, but will maintain personnel to look after the facility and assist in redevelopment of the mine plan over the winter. This will preserve the active status of the mine and its bonding while the Company seeks to modify the existing Plan of Operations to add a milling facility. It will also reduce company overhead. Engineering and planning for the modifications will be conducted through the winter months. This work will include preparation of an exploration plan to further identify mill-grade gold. Developmental work at Mineral Ridge will resume in the spring, following winter snow melt.
[ April 21, 2006, 20:03: Message edited by: NaturalResources ]
Posted by NaturalResources on :
FWIW, IMO, NXG will get approval for KN. If not, then YD will provide an alternative, though with a little luck NXG will have both.
I thought this article did a good job of stressing the importance of getting the KN permits on schedule.
GLTA and DYODD, NR.
Posted by RebelYell on :
OT: COHQ
Blue, If you have the time I would appreciate it if you could take a look at this one. Looks like it might be a decent long term hold. TIA
Posted by Darth Vader on :
KRY should do alright in the months to come. It's been skying. Once Venezuela approves their Mining project this thing will easily see $8.00. My opinion anyway. Let me know what you guys think.
Posted by Foxhound on :
I am looking to buy in on this stuff.
I have found that NTO, NXG, USPR, GG, and WITM seem to be some good picks for now. I am looking to put some money in these stocks. Both NTO and NXG seem to be at their apex but do you think they will tumble down again?
Out of those which would be smartest to purchase for the time being?
Advice, comments, anything would be great.
This is my first day with this stuff so bear with my if I have said things that don't make any sense.
-Fox
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
RY, i looked into this a bit - agree, is interesting: put it on my radar, will look into a little more.
considering it, the best place to start seems to be this document:
the main things i like about it are: a good amount of cash/very good balance sheet (trading under book, probably), and seems to be consistently profitable.
a point against it (at least for me) is that it's on the pink sheets, i only own 4 or 5 pinks (GFCI, BOGN, DVPC, CNSI, maybe a few others). you never quite know on the pinks whether the numbers are for real.
really their success down the road seems to be majorly dependent on their ability to invest in promising companies. as the .pdf linked above mentions - most of their payment is in the form of securities, not cash. so if the companies they choose to work with do well, they will make money along with them; and vice-versa. also a little hard to get a handle on in terms of research: not only does one have to research COHQ, but also the array of companies they work with like SGT ventures, because they own so much of these companies stocks.
anyway, an interesting company, thanks for the tip.
quote:Originally posted by RebelYell: OT: COHQ
Blue, If you have the time I would appreciate it if you could take a look at this one. Looks like it might be a decent long term hold. TIA
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
foxhound, to a large degree this depends on your risk tolerance, imho.
for example: GG is the largest/most established of these stocks mentioned. it is likely to run up the least if gold goes to 800, but on the other hand it will likely fall the least if gold dips to 450. it's probably the most conservative of the stocks you mentioned.
WITM i would imagine would fall on the other end of the risk/reward curve as GG: it's the riskiest, but it (as well as other juniors) might offer a larger reward if they 'strike it big'. one of the reasons i like EDV.TO is because it is somewhat of a "basket" of juniors, and they can also make money from financing in addition to warrants.
NTO and NXG are more "intermediate" gold producers, falling between juniors and GG-type stocks on the risk/reward scale.
some of it depends on time-scale of your investing too. personally i am invested in NTO because of agua rica, which won't go into production for years. i hope not to touch my NTO holdings for at least 10 years. so if you're looking for a quick payoff, NTO might not be the way to go.
as for technicals, really it is hard to say, and i am purely a "fundamentals" guys and not a chart-guy. so i have no opinion there, too hard to say for me - whether it being gold topping out, or NTO/NXG topping out. no idea.
so anyway, your question isn't an easy one, at least for me. many people in this thread have offered their own opinion of which gold stocks they like best. probably i would DD them and pick the one(s) you feel most comfortable with.
my own personal opinion is that gold/metals are a good idea to invest in with about 5% of one's overall portfolio, as i've discussed at various points in this thread. everyone of course has their own ideas though, just no way to tell - have to do with you feel comfortable with.
if you're new to stocks and/or are hesitant to play it too risky, perhaps take a close look at first 'getting your feet wet' with ie GG or another large cap mining stocks. juniors can be quite risky - even ROK.V, which is one of my favorite metals stocks, i freely admit could go to zero, and is only appropriate for a small position imho. it's all about risk/reward.
good luck to you, whatever you decide!
quote:Originally posted by Foxhound: I am looking to buy in on this stuff.
I have found that NTO, NXG, USPR, GG, and WITM seem to be some good picks for now. I am looking to put some money in these stocks. Both NTO and NXG seem to be at their apex but do you think they will tumble down again?
Out of those which would be smartest to purchase for the time being?
Advice, comments, anything would be great.
This is my first day with this stuff so bear with my if I have said things that don't make any sense.
-Fox
Posted by Foxhound on :
Hey man thanks alot. That really helps me with this whole ordeal.
I will take alot of what you said to thought because it really does seem resonable and now I see this in a whole different view.
Thanks a ton. Star for you.
Care to explain what agua rica is and such? If it is not proper to be off topic in these forums feel free to PM me. I would like a long term investment. I don't believe I will hit it big soon or do I even really strive to. I just want to make smaller amounts on a longer span of time and not be betting my life on this stuff you know?
Thanks you were alot of help.
-Fox
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
quote:Originally posted by Foxhound: Care to explain what agua rica is and such?
fox, agua rica is discussed a few points in this thread. i would recommend going back and doing a quick review of this entire thread, if you are interested in some of these companies mentioned here. a fair amount of people contributed to this thread, might be a good way to get a "flavor" or introduction to some of these stocks.
i would also recommend poking around in the canadian stocks board - some interesting mining stock posts there, for example by bcmouser.
Posted by Foxhound on :
Ah sorry didn't see any of that before. I have learned alot since the time I read that before so I had no idea what most of it said so it was harder to pay attention. If any of that makes sence.
I'm going to reread this over again. I am extremely tired from a plane ride from last night.
Blue you have been a great help.
-Fox
Posted by BuyTex on :
O my
S&P Equity Research Forecasts Gold Ending 2006 at $710
Supply/Demand Dynamics, Investment Dollars, and Consumer Demand Driving Price Appreciation
NEW YORK, April 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services, the world's leading provider of independent investment research, has raised its 2006 year-end closing price projection for gold to $710 an ounce from $600. "In our opinion, the supply and demand dynamics have set the stage for a multi-year bull market for gold. Even as companies begin new projects, decreased exploration in the 1990s has caught up with the industry. It generally takes a few years for a new mine to become operational," said Leo Larkin, Senior Metals & Mining Industry Analyst at Standard & Poor's Equity Research. "The gap between production and consumption of gold should widen as output likely stagnates and physical demand rises." "Additionally, the inflows into commodity funds, based on the belief that tangible assets will outperform financial assets, and continued strong consumer demand from India has helped boost the gold price," continued Larkin. Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has a "Buy" (4-STARS out of 5) recommendation on Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM, $57). With the least amount of gold hedged of any major producer, Newmont is well positioned to benefit from a continuation of the gold bull market, according to S&P. In addition, Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has a "Buy" (4-STARS) recommendation on Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX, $30). Now the world's largest gold mining company following its acquisition of Placer Dome, Barrick's decision to dramatically reduce its gold hedges will increase its future EPS and its appeal as a gold stock, in S&P's estimation. According to Alec Young, Equity Market Strategist, "Equity investors are benefiting nicely from the current commodity bull market given the significant combined 14% weighting of the Energy and Materials sectors in the S&P 500 Index." About Standard & Poor's Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is the world's foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research, data and valuations. With approximately 6,300 employees located in 21 countries and markets, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions. For more information, visit http://www.standardandpoors.com/. About Standard & Poor's Equity Research As the world's largest producer of independent equity research, over 1,000 institutions license Standard & Poor's research for their investors and advisors, including 19 of the top 20 securities firms, 13 of the top 20 banks, and 11 of the top 20 life insurance companies. Standard & Poor's team of 100 experienced U.S., European and Asian equity analysts use a fundamental, bottom-up approach to assess a global universe of approximately 2,000 equities across more than 120 industries worldwide. Follow Standard & Poor's equity analysts' US market commentary each day at http://www.equityresearch.standardandpoors.com/. The equity research reports and recommendations provided by Standard & Poor's Equity Research are performed separately from any other analytic activity of Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's Equity Research has no access to non- public information received by other units of Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's does not trade on its own account. The analytical and ethical conduct of Standard & Poor's equity analysts is governed by the firm's Research Objectivity Policy, a copy of which may also be found at http://www.standardandpoors.com. Posted by RebelYell on :
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Posted by blue_in_MI on :
you got your $4 mark today on NXG, NR - congrats!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
precious metals actually have been relatively stable for a few days, but: story of the day in metals imho was the sharp drop in copper. unless i'm reading charts wrong, a 10% drop in a day: from 3.10's back to the low 2.80's. if you believe this article, mainly caused by china raising the lending rate:
most base metals stocks down, ROK.V retreated 5% to .73. i am keeping a close eye on roca - really i continue to think that they are a very promising little company. have a fair amount already, but - would add some more if they dipped another notch. every time i run the numbers on their MAX project i'm impressed. the key advantage i think they have over other similar projects is: going to production *this* year. adenac and some others i like, but - they're not until *next* year. i like roca's "get it while you can" approach.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
dang, gold above 650 amidst iran worries - NTO, NXG, GG up about 5% on average today.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: dang, gold above 650 amidst Iran worries - NTO, NXG, GG up about 5% on average today.
NXG Q1 06 earnings report out After-Hours, Monday, May 1.
CEO said NXG historically trades based on multiples of cash flow.
Check out Q4 O5 earnings report when Gold was at approximately $453 per ounce and Copper averaged $1.98 per pound.
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: NXG holders will be encouraged to hear: i am sure NXG will promptly go straight to $4, i ALWAYS sell too early!
like i said.
d'oh!!!
nice job holding, NR. obviously i picked the wrong place to pare back 10% of my metals holding when i sold: only took 3 weeks after i posted this for NXG to shoot right past 4.
Posted by Repoman75 on :
Check out AURC. Gold play
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
nice news release after the bell by ROK - roca mines:
minimal dilution on good terms: raising $2M for MAX at .70/share: no warrants, no discount to market value for sprott, 4 month hold period.
pretty unusual for a junior mining company, sprott must think MAX is a promising project.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
not a bad day for your NXG, NR: posted about as expected: .10 on the Q late yesterday, up again today.
gold 670 and other metals still strong as well, dang. quite the run.
EDV.TO, after it's ridiculous run, seems to be stuck in a rut and churning - still stuck in low-mid 8's. one would think this would be a good time for the company buyback plan to kick in, but - hard to say.
not surprisingly after the financing news yesterday, nice day for ROK.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i used to think the gold rally would certainly stall (at least short-term) before 700, now am not so sure: 675 range. anyone any thoughts, if can push to 700 before the next correction? i give it a 50-50 shot, we'll see. amazing the momentum now, really quite an amazing day for GG in particular yesterday.
palladium is rarely talked about, but - really had some nice gains. on a % basis, really has risen quite a bit more than platinum. palladium has more than doubled since the bottom last year: used to be 160, now in the 380's. will be interesting to see if can break 400 before a correction.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
wow - two main stories of the day in terms of this thread: NXG a whopping day at +9.5%, and - copper pushing 3.50. dang.
gold choppy but still hanging in there - 678 at the moment.
NXG - 4.49, wow. very nice day for NTO as well, +6.5% TO 5.61. i gotta hand it to those still holding NXG: really surprised it has gone up this far. really looks overvalued to me now especially by comparison to NTO, but: what do I know, clearly i sold NXG too early.
disappointing EDV.TO still sinking slowly, actually under 8. just released their new NAV: 8.88, very nice. strange that it ran ahead of so many others for so long, now is straggling behind. clearly i should have sold at 9, but - am going to hold, still really like EDV for the many reasons i talked about earlier in this thread.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
interesting article about some mining companies reducing their gold hedging:
inversely to how southwest got a major leg up on competing airlines by hedging jet fuel at a relatively cheap rate, i imagine the gold producers that "bet correctly" and dehedged more will be the ones showing the very large profits on upcoming Q's.
hmm well i suppose that was a run-on sentence and perhaps not the greatest of analogies, but - eh it's early and i'm still on my first cup of coffee.
Posted by vg on :
NTO hit 6.00 today awesome day.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
agreed vg, very nice latter part of the week for NTO: back-to-back +6.5% days. about time! maybe agua rica will start to get valued into the equation for NTO some more, would be nice.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
another strong day: gold 696, platinum broke 1200 with ease, palladium 388. NTO 6.20, GG actually broke 40 briefly
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: disappointing EDV.TO still sinking slowly, actually under 8. just released their new NAV: 8.88, very nice. strange that it ran ahead of so many others for so long, now is straggling behind.
last week was trying to figure out why EDV was slowly slipping while gold kept going up - i think now at least a partial answer is here:
basically a PP, to raise funds to grow the company. not necessarily a bad thing in the long run - depends on course on the return they can generate on those funds. short-term though, puts downward pressure on the stock.
i don't think there's any question that some big players knew this was coming well before the general public, suddenly making the seemingly odd stock action the last week or two quite logical in retrospect. is irksome that this happens, and a reminder that the "little guy" simply doesn't have the advantages of bigger players and insiders in the market.
as for the PP, guess we'll have to see how it works out in the end. clearly management is trying to grow EDV to be a bigger company. their track record has been good in the past, so i'm still in for now. has almost tripled for me, so i'll give it a bit of a leash. am watching with a little closer eye than i used to though.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
dang, not sure "frisky" is the right word anymore - this thread originated last fall when low-mid 400's looked frisky. maybe should rename this thread to "metals gone wild" - major overnight surge. gold 727, silver around 15, platinum spent all of about 2 days in the 1200's and is now 1332, palladium broke 400, silver around 15, copper 3.80. wow, yikes.
NTO releasing Q results soon - judging from the dip yesterday, guess people are expecting poor to middling results. alumbrera really isn't the point with NTO though, still think it's all about agua rica and long-term potential; so honestly i'm only mildly interested in the Q. NTO is a long-term hold for me.
Posted by stocktrader8000 on :
MGMX a major gold player now. Up 40%+ yesterday with strong finish into close.
MGMX was double it's present price just last week.
Watch for it to surge hard today.
MGMX target .13
Posted by hawkdriver on :
Too much uncertainty driving momentum. Rate hikes are getting weaker at curbing inflation 16 consecutinve rate hikes now, and no real significant impact. I don't forsee this changing anytime soon. A weak dollar. I don't think we are going to see the traditional summertime correction this year.
Posted by justastock on :
CMBV, something is up here, more volume in the last 3 months then ever.. Yesterday was a break out day on the volume. PPS on the bid almost doubled. Hoping for some good gold news soon.
Keep on eye on it.
J
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
surprised most gold stocks corrected so much yesterday: GG and NXG down about 5% with gold pulling back to 710 range. not a pretty day for metals in general, though NTO and ROK.V bucked the trend and had mild gains. ROK.V seems to have completed all financing for their MAX project on very good terms, which is my guess at what caused the bump-up yesterday. NTO earnings due monday before open, some chatter this week that they might disappoint - we'll see.
Posted by Stockguru06 on :
check out ilst, bottom player, volume increasing and should release news in the next week
Posted by ohio_trader on :
MGMX
Long and Strong !!!!!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
major correction yesterday - most metals stocks lost a whopping 10% or so, yeowch! GG in particular - lost nearly 20% over the last 3 trading days. really hard to say what will happen, perhaps a red day again today but would be shocked if it were the same degree as yesterday's bloodbath.
both GG and NTO reported after the bell yesterday: GG in below estimates with .24/sh, NTO surprised positively with .12/share and bounced AH.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
What a ride gold has been the last few days...
Still holding NXG. I might buy more, if it goes lower.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
the question that kept coming to mind this week in the metals correction was: based on the % that the underlying metals were dropping, what % would the stock dropping make it an attractive buy?
for example, gold off about 10% from it's peak, but many gold producers off 30% and even higher. obviously there's not a 1:1 relationship between underlying gold price and mining company price - a lot of variables go into evaluating a mining company. mining companies (in particular, juniors) often offer more "leverage" than owning the underlying metal itself.
hard to properly evaluate the question - just so many factors. i guess the markets seemed to think that the "oversold" mark was hit on metals stocks sometime midday today - a nice bounce for many (particularly your NXG).
clearly the thing to do would have been to dump at the peak, but - hindsight always 20/20. because all 3 of my metals holdings are in retirement accounts, and because i have them there as mainly a hedge of sorts, am just going to let them ride long. gold may or may not bounce at 650-range, but- i still in general like prospects for metals. i also like the particular projects of ROK.V and NTO (MAX and agua rica), and really like EDV.TO's business model. so - the best i can figure out to do is in this metals rollercoaster ride is: just stick with the companies i like most and consider to have the best long-term projects. we'll see how it goes.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
try CAU. it is good stock, i sold in early at 1.25, but definitely nice stock with some good news these days. should go around 1.45-1.5 short term.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gold showing some signs of settling down a bit, with support seeming to perhaps finally kick in around the 640 mark. but - at this point, still too early to confirm. one would think that sooner or later the volatility and wild swings would settle down and gold/metals would find a semi-stable trading range. maybe starting to happen now, but - imho is just too early to call.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold holding steady around $640-650/oz. Looks like it finally has some support but I agree Blue, too early to tell if it will hold.
NXG was up today on yesterdays AH news regarding Y-D mine drilling results.
AZK up as well, it will probably follow NXG until the takeover offer by NXG is accepted or rejected.
Update on GPXM homepage:
First load of Ashdown moly hits the crusher! Bulk sampling begins
quote:Originally posted by daytrader1: try CAU. it is good stock, i sold in early at 1.25, but definitely nice stock with some good news these days. should go around 1.45-1.5 short term.
I'll check it out over the weekend Daytrader1, thanks for the heads up.
Posted by daytrader1 on :
quote:Originally posted by NaturalResources:
quote:Originally posted by daytrader1: try CAU. it is good stock, i sold in early at 1.25, but definitely nice stock with some good news these days. should go around 1.45-1.5 short term.
I'll check it out over the weekend Daytrader1, thanks for the heads up.
lol..it ran hard today natural..it did test 1.43 as i predicted, would need few days to settle IMO and run back to around 1.5. good luck on that! also try cghi within 0.065-0.09 range and you can make tonnes of money there Posted by daytrader1 on :
looks like cau has had its share of healthy pullout!
Posted by daytrader1 on :
moving up from here IMO
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gold still seems a bit uncertain on the bottom support - looked like 630 range might hold but fell to 620ish range overnight before a bounce back to 630ish this morning. my guess is that a safe floor might be 590ish, but - who knows. am still holding the [NTO, ROK.V, EDV.TO, EZM] that i have, but - admit that i wouldn't add any more metals stocks at the moment. if gold fell to 590's though and mining stocks fell accordingly, might consider adding. we'll see.
roca released a PR this week about things starting to ramp up for their MAX project:
Blue, was wondering if you would share your opinion of TNGL and AZMN
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
haven't checked in on this thread in a long time. gold bouncing around a lot lately, in the 630's at present.
beauteous +17.7% breakout by roca / ROK.V on big volume today, shattered the 52-week high. sold 1/3 at the close because i'm a chicken and a hedger, still holding the other 2/3.
kind of odd trading actually: didn't move much at all on this PR about how they arranged a buyer for all their moly output the next 2 years on monday:
Blue NTO moving pretty well. Next 10Q comes out in a couple of days. Should look good since good prices were at their high. What do you predict blue since you are almost always pretty close to what comes out.
Posted by futuremill on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: pushing 17-year highs at $458/oz, seemingly mainly on inflation fears.
Anyone really liking any gold stocks now, in particular juniors?
i admit my gold stocks are likely too boring for the OTC players here: only have 3 long-term holds in IRA accounts - NTO, NXG, and EDV.TO.
as a side note, platinum has also had a pretty good run to $922/oz, palladium still mostly in the dumps though.
on an even more tangential note, Purl brought up GPXM here, my only other metal holding is i have a teeny bit in a similar moly play - ROK.V. a little surprising to me that moly prices bounced and moved up to $35/lb but stocks like GPXM and ROK.V have gone nowhere.
gold is danged hard to figure: so many people claiming so many different pulls on it. some view it as purely an inflation hedge, some view it as really the "anti-dollar", some look at demand for things like jewelry and ignore other influences. probably all have a grain of truth, but - at least for me - is tough to sort out all the influences both positive and negative on gold prices.
Posted by futuremill on :
TAKE A PEEK AT "TAOL". SITTING REAL LOW RIGHT NOW $.24. THEY JUST PURCHASED ANOTHER MINING SITE WITH REAL GOOD POTENTIAL. COULD BE A BIG GAINER.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
another beauty of a breakout by roca mines/ROK.V: up about 30% over the last 2 trading days alone, closed at 1.23 today. nearly 1M shares traded, beauty!
re: NTO - my ridiculously delayed reaction, vg - just seeing your post now. i thought the NTO Q was quite good, but - market seemed to yawn, still stuck in the 4.60's. .18/share fully diluted on the Q, not too shabby.
honesty with NTO i don't even follow short-term much; have just decided to hold long mainly because i like agua rica. some agua rica stuff mixed in with the alumbrera-based Q results are in this PR:
sounds like we'll be hearing about the feasibility study and financing for agua rica over the next few months, we'll see. still holding and will continue to hold.
Posted by loadedgun on :
ucoi is going to rock within a few weeks. Awaiting core sample results
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
still holding my core-3 metals of ROK, NTO, EDV.TO. NTO still stuck in low 4's but very nice pushes by EDV and ROK lately, ROK a new 52-week high of 1.70 yesterday.
EDV a fantastic last Q, very profitable and new high in book value. also they bet big on UUU.V and it flew from the 2's to 8 since they bought, so they've made a bundle on that lately. Roca put up new pics on their website yesterday
metals looking quite frisky again lately. very nice Q also by BWLRF released yesterday btw
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Metals are looking nice Blue... Any chance gold will go above 725/oz? I hope so, charts seem to indicate at least a test of the 700/oz level.
Still holding 2/3 of my NXG. Financial numbers are great, but I sold about 1/3 to protect profits. Also, The "First Nations" are becoming an obstacle for KN, and YD might not be ready by the time KS runs out. This could bring some downside to NXG's PPS. NXG's failed bid for AZK also weighed on my decision.
However, Gold prices are strong and in an uptrend, plus NXG has plenty of cash to provide a "financial bridge" if/when it becomes necessary. I am confident that at least YD will be brought into production. Regardless, NXG will continue to show strong numbers from KS at least for the next year or two, so I am planning to hold the other 2/3 for a good while, though another large spike in PPS due to gold prices may prompt me to part will a little more.
Still holding GPXM, and actually picked up quite a bit more. Lots of insider buys, and experienced professionals getting on board. Things are progressing great with this company and they have accomplished the milestone of being the first company to start production of a new Molybdenum mine during the latest price cycle and already have close to 1Mil in concentrate sales.
Management is also talking about bringing the Mineral Ridge gold property back into production. At current gold prices, this will definitely weigh on the upside for this stock. IMO this one will eventually move higher this year to at least test last years 52wk high of $0.56/shr.
These are all IMO of course, do your own DD and GLTA.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Should we expect a continued upward trend to test 700/oz by the end of this week or will we get a pullback first?
Silver is what started me trading and has almost tripled since my original purchases.
I hold real silver bars. Lots of them!
I have tried to learn as much about silver in the past 3 years and what I have learned amazes me.
My personal opinion is that silver will out perform gold for several reasons.
1. It is a used commodity. Silver is in everything from cell phones to microwaves etc. It is the leading metal in electro conductivity. China is eating it up!
2. Above ground reserves are lower than they have ever been. AND SHRINKING!
3 The best of all is that there is a huge short interest that will soon be unleashed on the top 4 forex that have cornered the market more than the Hunt brothers did in the late 70's leading up to 1980. They have oversold silver contracts and DO NOT have the real silver to back it up.
4 Over the past 5 years silver has out performed gold % wise and is still WAY undervalued.
Take a look at the Sept. 18th post for the short interest. And the oct. 23rd. for the reserves.
As for gold and silver I do believe we will see higher numbers near term to perhaps gold touching over 700 per once. And silver touching $16 per ounce.
Then a bit of a retrace to new supports of $660 for gold and $14.20 for silver.
Long term My guess is that silver hits $20 this year and $50 by 2008-2009......
All in my opinion. Hope that helps!
Posted by glassman on :
i will be happy if silver doubles from here in your time frame...
Posted by before_the_crowd on :
GBN look at this mining company. Will be $10 one day...If you like really long term plays hold it thro 2009, you might get at least $15 out of it at that time. For short term $3 is coming baby
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Yikes, Gold prices took a beating overnight... down to 678/oz. Guess that answers my question. Hopefully this is only a healthy retracement before it moves back towards 700.
A Surfer, I own both gold/silver bullion and stocks. I hold more gold than silver, but I am looking to increase my silver stock holdings. Got any good picks? BTW, thanks for your comments, and the link. Definitely looks good for silver futures.
Posted by blacklab669 on :
quote:Originally posted by before_the_crowd: GBN look at this mining company. Will be $10 one day...If you like really long term plays hold it thro 2009, you might get at least $15 out of it at that time. For short term $3 is coming baby
That looks good another mining play is unoi check this one out if you like playing copper
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold Falls in New York as Equity Plunge Triggers Metal Sell-Off
Gold looks close to a bottom. The only thing that can keep it down is if the regular market plunges next week, a very good possibility.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by dbell: Gold looks close to a bottom. The only thing that can keep it down is if the regular market plunges next week, a very good possibility.
Still trying to figure this one out, usually when the market goes down, Gold goes up...
Posted by glassman on :
kinda makes you wonder where the money is going huh?
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: kinda makes you wonder where the money is going huh?
Definitely not going into my pocket... Could be a good opportunity to pick up Gold/Gold mining stocks cheap, if you believe this is only a correction and Gold prices will go up again.
Personally, I am in "hold" mode on precious metals/mining stocks until at least mid-next week after this latest dip.
Posted by before_the_crowd on :
I would be waiting for the whole 10% correction. Market has only corrected like 3.5% at these levels. I think it will fluctuate around for another couple months AT LEAST prior to getting bullish again. It may happen sooner if the feds dont mess with the interest rates again GOD D%M*IT
Posted by a surfer on :
He predicted the drop...
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
NXG i sold way too early NaturalResources - my specialty! oh well.
still holding NTO - nice uptick lately. ROK.V - wow, blew up from mid-1's to $3, beauty. EDV also a new all-time high yesterday, still holding
Posted by glassman on :
the Russkies have been the driving force behind gold price over the last couple years...
and they are still accumulating:
Russia gold and currency reserves increased to record-high
05.04.2007, 11.18
MOSCOW, April 5 (Itar-Tass) - Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by 6.1 billon dollars or 1.8 per cent to 338.7 billion dollars on March 23-30, Prime-Tass said Thursday with reference to the Central Bank.
The size of gold and currency reserves is another record for the whole period of regular publication of this information by the Central Bank.
As compared to January 1, when the figure was 303.7 billion dollars, the reserves have grown by 11.5 percent.
if (when?) China does jump in? it will signal a major shift to the next stage of their economic march toward world domination....
Posted by NaturalResources on :
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: NXG i sold way too early NaturalResources - my specialty! oh well.
still holding NTO - nice uptick lately. ROK.V - wow, blew up from mid-1's to $3, beauty. EDV also a new all-time high yesterday, still holding
Don't be hard on yourself...NXG has pretty much stalled out. Bears make money, Bulls make money, Pigs get slaughtered...
Northgate is waiting on another public hearing session for KN... The way this project has been delayed by First Nations, it is becoming more unlikely that production at KN would start before KS runs out of steam...
So... It will be up to NXG to either find the "mother-load" at YD or acquire another mine that is about to start, or is already in production, as it attempted with AZK. If they fail to, this stock will start to gain some substantial downside risk.
I don't really see anything moving NXG up in the near-mid term besides Gold prices, which BTW seem to want to test the 700$/oz range.
Congrats on your NTO, ROK.V, and EDV. Have you checked out GPXM lately? They have brought Ashdown into production and are now talking about restarting Mineral Ridge.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold is 5 dollars away from breaking through the $700/oz level...
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Looks like gold pulled back a bit this afternoon. IMO, keep an eye on it overnight though... If it breaks through 700/oz while US markets are closed, there should be some fireworks tommorow at 9:30am.
Posted by stockmman on :
Dutch Gold Resources Confirms Higher March Sales Wednesday April 18, 6:22 am ET
Mining Program Yields Free Gold
ATLANTA, GA--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 18, 2007 -- Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. (Other OTC:DGRI.PK - News), a developer and operator of proven gold mines and a regional mill in North America, today reported higher sales for March 2007 than previously reported. In addition, the Company has reported finding free gold in its current mining production.
Earlier, Dutch Gold had reported initial sales in excess of 800 ounces of gold for the month of March. Final production, confirmed internally, was over 985 ounces of gold. The increase is due primarily to enhanced production yields from higher than projected grade ores. Further, this production included only three shipments of concentrate for the month. The Company reiterates that it expects to average four shipments a month on an ongoing basis beginning second quarter 2007.
Dan Hollis, Chief Executive Officer of Dutch Gold Resources, stated, "We are pleased with the positive results of our initial month of regular operations. We are optimistic that our operations team will continue to produce these solid results as we are only now beginning to realize the potential from the Benton Mine. We look forward to continuing to optimize our production during this time of rising gold prices with the goal of increasing profitability and maximizing shareholder value."
In addition, the Company operations have produced an unusual amount of free gold, not commonly seen in structures such as the zones being currently developed. Dutch Mining expects to conduct additional sampling to determine the source and magnitude this anomaly.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold pulled back quite a bit last week. Looks like there is support at 640/oz and 570/oz, with resistance at 670/oz and 700/oz. Some "experts" are predicting gold above 700 by the end of this year. Anyone care to speculate where the price for gold is headed over the next 4 weeks?
Posted by stockmman on :
Dutch Gold Resources to Install Enhanced Recovery Ore Circuit Monday June 11, 9:28 am ET
Independent Assays Indicate Yield Improvement
ATLANTA, GA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jun 11, 2007 -- Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. (Other OTC:DGRI.PK - News) (the "Company"), a developer and operator of proven gold mines and a regional mill in North America, today announced that this week, it will complete an additional upgrade of its mill consisting of the installation of a new Gemini Table. The Gemini Table is used to further clean the concentrate from the recently installed Knelson Concentrator. The equipment is being installed to enhance the yield from its ore following the Company's recent discovery of free gold. Following the installation of the Knelson Concentrator, initial assays show that the tail values have decreased, indicating a higher recovery of gold from recently produced ores.
Dan Hollis, Chief Executive Officer of Dutch Gold Resources, stated, "We are making great strides to optimize our yield of gold produced per ton. The addition of the Knelson Concentrator has already produced tangible and promising results. We believe the additional installation of the new Gemini table this week should continue to further recent progress. Upon completion of the circuit, we will be able to market not only flotation concentrate, but free gold and gravity concentrate as well. We anticipate this having a positive impact on both our top and bottom line."
The Company regularly sends samples to an independent third party for assay results. Initial reports indicate that the Knelson concentrator, installed in May, has made an impact on recovery rates. Dutch expects that with the introduction of the Gemini Table into mill operations, these recovery rates will continue to improve.
About Dutch Gold Resources, Inc.
In January 2007, Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. acquired Dutch Mining LLC, which was founded in 1994. Dutch Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of proven gold reserves in North America. The company's strategy is to focus on overlooked resources which can be quickly and cost-efficiently brought into production. The Company currently owns two mines in southwestern Oregon, consisting of the Benton and Gold Bug Mines. Production resumed in March 2007 and the Company has begun a drilling program to prove up additional reserves, and enhance future production. Please visit the Company's website for additional information at: www.dutchgoldresources.com.
To learn more about the company, you may also go to: http://researchworksllc.com/Research/DGRI/ to view a recent research report on the Company in addition to pictures of the Company's mill and Benton mine.
Certain statements in this release, and other written or oral statements made by the company, including the use of the words "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "project," "forecast," "outlook," "target," "objective," "plan," "goal," "pursue," "on track," and similar expressions, are "forward-looking statements" and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance, or achievements of the company to be different from those expressed or implied. The company assumes no obligation and does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold looks like it might have bottomed out at 640/oz. Hopefully it will go up from here. If not, I might have to lighten up my gold holdings a bit more.
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by NaturalResources: Gold looks like it might have bottomed out at 640/oz. Hopefully it will go up from here. If not, I might have to lighten up my gold holdings a bit more.
I wouldn't dare sell gold or silver at these levels. Specially silver!
IMO I would lighten your load on gold and split the $ difference into silver.
The risk reward ratio in silver is a no brainer at these #'s
The next few years will be incredible IMO
TED BUTLER COMMENTARY
July 3, 2007
SELL OFFS MAKE YOU THINK
By Israel Friedman
(Izzy Friedman is a friend and mentor to Theodore Butler. He has followed silver for many decades. He has written articles for us in the past. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views.)
My good friend, Mr. Butler, thought it was a good time for me to write something. Since we talk to each other about silver so much, I am happy to have the honor of having my thoughts recorded, and I hope I don’t steer anyone wrong with my opinions.
If you study silver like I do every day, the recent price drop affects you in different ways. It makes you afraid of losing money, or angry if you believe in manipulation. For some people, it makes them happy they are in a position to buy more. A sudden sell off like this last one also makes you think and re-evaluate. I wonder if the original reasons I bought silver are still okay. That is good because things can change. In fact, I think things have changed in silver. Believe it or not, I think the silver story has gotten better than before.
I agree with what Mr. Butler writes about the manipulation. I think the recent sell-off proves it more. Nothing changed in silver to account for such a sharp decline. It’s only the questionable dealings on the COMEX. But, Mr. Butler writes about the manipulation and I want to talk about something else. I want to talk about the opportunity of a lifetime that silver represents. When I look at the facts in silver, I reach a conclusion on price that many would consider ridiculous. Mr. Butler told me not to print the prices I discuss with him in private. He says that I will appear too extreme and lose credibility. He says he doesn’t necessarily disagree; just that the numbers are so high that people will laugh and lose the real message. I tell him that extreme projections can come true, and this silver projection can make regular people rich.
The best way to analyze silver is to compare it to something else, like gold. They have been used and compared for thousands of years. People say how gold is no one else’s liability, has been money for thousands of years and cannot be created at will. The same things can be said about silver. Central banks own tremendous amounts of gold and hardly any silver anymore.
Silver has come to be used so much by industry over the past 50 or 60 years that most of the inventories in silver have been used up. Now we have more gold above ground than we have silver above ground. Silver is more rare than gold. There are 5 billion ounces of gold above ground and only 1 billion ounces of known silver. We have over 62 years of gold production above ground. In silver, we have less than two years of mining production.
The rarer and more industrially needed item should be $650 and the more plentiful and less used item should be $13. I say that silver must go at least into the high triple digits to make a balance between the real inventory and the price. Silver will be $50 to $100, but it will be a mistake to think the party is over then.
So few believe that silver can go to such high numbers that it creates an opportunity for those who buy silver to become rich. In my opinion, that’s without taking big chances. Do you think there would be such an opportunity if everyone knew of it? All you need is a good silver position and to allow enough time for the fundamentals to work and for enough people to learn about silver.
You don’t have to put all your money into silver, just enough. And you must put it into the right kind of silver. You must have real silver in your own possession or silver stored for you in the right way. If you want to speculate on margin, then speculate. But don’t pretend you are making a real silver investment for the long term. And the long term is where the big money will be made. I hope that this article will help those holding silver to feel good about their holdings and helps to convince those not holding silver to get some
By Theodore Butler
(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)
The remarkable saga of the raptors continues. I’m referring to the commercial traders on the COMEX, aside from the four and eight largest traders in the Commitment of Traders Report (COT). To summarize, over the past year or so, a pattern has developed where the smaller commercial traders in the large commercial category seem to be aggressively stepping in front of the dominant shorts in silver (and gold).
The recent sharp sell-offs in silver and gold do not disprove my theory, at least not yet. In truth, this last sell-off was so severe, especially in silver that I thought I might have to lay the raptor theory to rest. After all, silver sold off so sharply that it set a record for how much it traded under the 200 day moving average. I thought the big T. rex commercial shorts may have turned the tables on the smaller raptors by engineering the price so low that the raptors might be forced to sell. I was fully prepared, in that event, to title the article, "The Rex’s Eat The Raptors." Maybe that will be the title some day, but not today.
Instead, the raptors accounted for a disproportionate share, once again, of the dealer buying on the big break. Of the total commercial net buying of 7000 silver futures contracts, the raptors accounted for 5500. As a result of the raptor buying we hit some new milestones in the most recent COT, for positions as of 6/26.
The raptors now hold an historic net long position of some 14,500 silver contracts. The four largest traders are now short more than 104% of the total commercial net short silver position, also a record in percentage terms. Likewise in gold, some new records were set. The gold raptors now hold an historic net long position of 46,000 contracts and the eight largest traders now hold a net short position that is 155% of the total commercial net short position.
Given the extreme levels of concentration in silver and gold, and given the strong connection between concentration and manipulation, I am at a genuine loss as to why there is not more discussion on this issue. I see that plenty of people have picked up the significance of the COTs in general, but very few have dared speak up about the concentration levels, which are a key component of the weekly reports. As a reminder, concentration is reported because it is the prime requisite for manipulation, not because I say so, but because the CFTC and commodity law says so.
On another issue, the turnover in COMEX silver inventories continues. Over the past two weeks, some 23 million ounces have been received and 18 million have moved out. Of the amount received, 19 million ounces were in the ScotiaMocatta warehouse. It does not appear to be the same silver being transferred. Now that the first three days of deliveries have taken place on the big July contract, it does not appear that much of the silver received in the ScotiaMocatta warehouse was earmarked for delivery. I still have the opinion that the most probable reason for the in-movement was to camouflage the out movement. It’s as if someone wants to hide the fact that so much silver is being withdrawn. Of course, if my speculation is correct, that should be against commodity law as well.
Another One Bites The Dust?
There may have been some small amount of prior warning, but I am still taken back by the sudden resignation of Reuben Jeffery, chairman of the CFTC. After less than 2 years as chairman, his resignation was announced the same day he departed, June 27, leaving three vacancies on the five-member Commission. Whatever happened to giving proper notice and helping to find a replacement when one departs a job? I’m also surprised with the lack of media coverage of the event. Of course, I can’t say it’s related to the silver manipulation, but not because silver isn’t manipulated. If the resignation were unrelated to the silver manipulation, it would be because the CFTC is (still) clueless.
Posted by a surfer on :
TED BUTLER COMMENTARY
July 10, 2007
As Good As It Gets?
(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)
The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT), for positions held as of July 3, contained some surprisingly bullish data for silver. The report indicated another sharp reduction in the total net commercial short position, by almost 6000 contracts, to the smallest net short position (42,000 futures contracts) in nine months. While the total net short commercial position in gold widened a bit, we are still at a very low level of commercial net shorts in gold, indicating that both silver and gold are structured to move higher. Perhaps sharply higher.
In fact, it’s hard to imagine how there could be a continued significant improvement in the COTs for silver or gold. This would appear to be the time for a maximum exposure to the upside, especially in silver.
Aside from the extreme bullish structure in the COTs, always good news for metal investors, there were some further milestones set in the COMEX silver market that cannot be considered good by advocates of free markets. The concentration on the short side of COMEX silver continues unabated. For the life of me, I can’t decide what is worse; that the silver manipulation is so blatant, or that so many are silent on this issue, particularly those in regulatory or industry-leadership roles.
The new COT report shows that the four and eight largest COMEX silver traders now hold an historic concentrated short position, compared to the total commercial net short position, in percentage terms. (And on a straight contract basis, the big shorts are not that far from historic levels.) The four largest traders now hold more than 118% of the total commercial net short position, while the eight largest hold over 146% of the total net short position.
Meanwhile the raptors just rock along, with the smaller commercials now net long almost 19,500 contracts, the most I’ve ever seen. Of the almost 6000 total futures contracts bought by the commercials in the most recent COT report, the raptors accounted for 5,000. The only real question is that when we eventually get technical buying as prices climb through the various moving averages, will the raptors sell and take quick profits, or will they sit back and do nothing and let prices truly explode? We should know soon enough.
The central issue in the silver market, in my opinion, continues to be how this super concentrated position on the short side be allowed to exist. Let me keep this simple. We have never witnessed, in the history of the commodities markets, such an extremely concentrated position that we now see in COMEX silver. Not in the Hunt Bros. long side silver manipulation, not in the Sumitomo copper manipulation, not even in the Amaranth natural gas fiasco.
This concentration issue is not complicated. There cannot be manipulation without concentration. There cannot be concentration without the extreme likelihood of manipulation. This is why the concentration data features so prominently as a regulatory tool and is an integral component of the COT report on every commodity. The concentrated short position in COMEX silver is so extreme, that it does not even matter if real silver or alleged hedges back this short position. Concentration equals control. Markets cannot be controlled and be considered free.
The concentrated short position in COMEX silver, as repugnant as it is to the concept of free markets, is not to be feared. It is the silver investor’s best friend. The four largest traders are net short 250 million ounces in COMEX silver futures. That sale has already occurred, as well as its negative impact on price. Since every short sale is an open transaction that must be resolved at some point, the positive impact on price lies ahead. By manipulating the price of silver much lower than it would be without this short position, the concentrated short sellers have done all silver investors a great favor. They have created the greatest investment bargain in history. That will be apparent when it is exposed and ultimately resolved.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
a surfer,
Great articles. Looks like gold might be making at run at 700/oz again. Silver is moving up as today as well. I am going to keep a close eye on them for the next few days.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold back above 700/oz today...
Posted by Bob Frey on :
Great Article on silver... As soon as I get some more dry powder I'm going to take a bigger position in it...
Thanks a surfer.
NR.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold touched 719/oz today... Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next 48 hours with the Fed decision coming...
Everyone is saying there should a rate cut, which means gold prices should go up...
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold soars to $725 as Fed slashes rates, kills confidence in the Dollar
quote:Spot Gold Prices soared 1.5% from their lows of the session to a new 16-month high above $725 per ounce on Tuesday after the US Federal Reserve slashed its key interest rate by 50-basis points.
Intending "to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets," the Fed's first cut in its main US interest rate takes the cost of borrowing Dollars to 4.75%.
Wall Street stocks also rose sharply, adding 1.8% to the Dow Jones index inside 45 minutes. "We see more cuts ahead," says David M.Jones of DMJ Advisors in Denver, a former Fed economist. "They have to rebuild confidence, both in terms of lenders and Main Street."
But the dash towards using cheap money to avoid a housing-led recession knocked confidence out of the US currency itself, with the Dollar promptly sinking to a new all-time low versus the European single currency.
we'll see if his prediction is right.
Posted by kywee on :
If anyone cares to explain. How would one start investing in silver, gold, etc?
I'm basically asking how it works in relation to buying shares of a company or is there an index?
Thank you if you decide to shed some light
Posted by glassman on :
for silver? study coins...
they're easy to liquidate, and fun...
i go 'round to convenience stores and ask them to save the silver that comes into their cash drawer, you'de be surprised how much still turns up..
mostly dimes and quarters but they are still silver, and you can usually buy them from stores for less than buying bullion...
if the economy ever tanks? they'll be the best spending power you could want...
Posted by kywee on :
Interesting.
Let me see if I understand. Your saying stock up on physical silver (such as coins) and hold onto them while silver appreciates in value?
Would you have to take them somewhere and cash them in or melt them? If I simply went to a store and used them, I would get what they are worth face value, so I'm assuming there is a way to do it.
Thanks for the input btw
Posted by glassman on :
silver is easy to accumulate...and yes, i've always collected it as a hobby...
if you want to trade?
gold's symbol is GLD and it's 1/10th ounce trades.. closed at 72.72 today...
as for gold mines? that requires more DD to determine the co's cost of extraction & other overhead.. with the cost of fuel going up? overhead is going up too.. if you want to trade futures and options? then the place to start learning is here:
Liqudating any form of silver is as easy as a phone call now glass...
Kywee the important thing is to accumulate it now while its dirt cheap.
IMO its a 5-15 year hold that will pay into the 1000% range....
Its no overnight flip but when the time comes it will be astounding.....IMO
with the dollar weak and getting weaker silver and gold are no brainers.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
I agree with Glass. If you are interested in investing in precious metals, the cheapest and easiest way to start is by collecting old silver coins as he suggested.
Any Quarter or Dime made before 1964 has silver content, and pennies before 1982 are actually worth twice their face value at current metal prices, due to the copper content. An easy way to sort out silver quarters is to view them from the edge. A silver quarter is silver in color from one face to the other, where as one made after 1964 you can see the copper sandwiched between to nickel faces.
Always make sure you check your silver coins closely, sometimes you can find a rare one... Especially when it comes to silver coins... Many of them got removed from circulation or destroyed all together when people melted them down in the 80's when silver prices were close to 50$/ oz.
HOWEVER, keep in mind, as of 2006, melting down coins is illegal and violators can be punished with a fine of up to $10,000 and/or imprisoned for a maximum of five years...
If you want to build a serious hoard of silver at cheap prices, you might be able to buy large, 'grab bags' on Ebay or other online auctions... Though it has been a while since I have done that, so prices may be up...
If you are looking for higher priced, yet still affordable coins, try the US mint. I try to buy one set every year of silver proof US quarters... A bit more expensive, but better quality than what you find in circulation and might have higher value as a collectors item.
This of course, is only one way to invest in precious metals, there are many others, as explained in this wikipedia entry.
I do think 'a surfer' brings up a good point about whether or not right now is a good time to be buying... Gold and silver are high priced compared to just 3-4 years ago, so be sure to do your own DD.
Personally, short term 1-3 months, I am slightly bearish for gold, I think people will be taking profits because prices have risen sharply over the last few weeks...
Midterm, 3-6 months, I am slightly bullish because of seasonal demand, and speculation of further rate cuts by the fed....
GLTY, hope I have been helpful. NR.
Posted by kywee on :
So your suggesting hoarding away silver coins and bars in my house and later on in time, cash them in somewhere?
May I ask where you cash this in?
Posted by glassman on :
bullion? same place you buy 'em...
look around for a reputable dealer, theres usually a couple in any large city.....
as for gold? you can buy it and sell right on your computer, symbol GLD...
Posted by T e x on :
NR notes: "HOWEVER, keep in mind, as of 2006, melting down coins is illegal and violators can be punished with a fine of up to $10,000 and/or imprisoned for a maximum of five years... "
true dat, and you can get in trouble shipping too much...ie, sending to an overseas "buddy" who melts 'em down.
Posted by kywee on :
Great info! Night all
Posted by JJMoneyman on :
Just so you know, I am a full time coin dealer. I have full time shop and travel across the country selling at shows. All dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars dated 1964 and earlier are 90% silver. This is a great way to accumulate silver as most dealers will sell this kind of thing to you at slightly over melt value. Current melt value on old silver coins is 9.785 times face value. So an old silver dime has just over 97 cents worth of silver in it and so on. Silver rounds and bars can also usually be purchased for a small premium over spot value.
Now the same isn't true of old gold coins produced by the US. Most old gold brings a higher premium over spot value. But there are plenty of choices in bullion gold out there to choose from. The cheapest premium over spot is usually the Krugerrand. Personally I like to put smaller pieces of gold away in my safe for the future, because if gold ever does go through the roof, larger pieces may be harder to sell because of the $$ value involved. But keep in mind the smaller pieces usually demand a higher premium over spot value.
The dollar is going to be one of the strongest issues relating to bullion pricing. As the dollar continues to fall against foreign currencies the price of bullion should continue to increase. There are of course other factors.
If you are looking to buy bullion just call the coin shops in your area and compare prices. And when it comes time to sell, just do the same thing. Believe me, not all dealers will have the same price and it's worth your time to shop around.
Good luck!
Posted by glassman on :
hey JJ, how much should i expect to pay to get a peace dollar professionally cleaned?
i picked up a 28 S recently that looks like somebody wrote on it with a sharpie... other than that it's real clean... i know better than to clean one myself, and i wouldn't bother except this is one is fairly rare. i know it'll never get rated 65, but....
Posted by dmxbr9 on :
go GOLD!
Posted by JJMoneyman on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: hey JJ, how much should i expect to pay to get a peace dollar professionally cleaned?
i picked up a 28 S recently that looks like somebody wrote on it with a sharpie... other than that it's real clean... i know better than to clean one myself, and i wouldn't bother except this is one is fairly rare. i know it'll never get rated 65, but....
Many dealers cannot clean coin properly so be VERY careful. If it looks like a sharpie you might be able to do this very easily. Just pour some fingernail polish remover into a glass and place the dollar in it. Let is soak for a minute or so and then take a q-tip that has been dipped the the fingernail polish remover and lightly rub the area. Do it VERY lightly as if you do it too hard you can put hairline scratches on the coin. Rinse very well in hot water and pat dry and there you have it. If it doesn't work I would need to see the coin to see what the issue is. I hope this works and good luck.
Posted by kywee on :
JJ, mind if I ask where you find out how much the silver is worth compared to face value?
Thank you. Great information
Posted by FrankNitti on :
Remember, Spain will sell the US no more gold this year either.....GO GOLD!!!!
Posted by ed19363 on :
quote:Originally posted by JJMoneyman: Just so you know, I am a full time coin dealer. I have full time shop and travel across the country selling at shows. All dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars dated 1964 and earlier are 90% silver. This is a great way to accumulate silver as most dealers will sell this kind of thing to you at slightly over melt value. Current melt value on old silver coins is 9.785 times face value. So an old silver dime has just over 97 cents worth of silver in it and so on. Silver rounds and bars can also usually be purchased for a small premium over spot value.
Now the same isn't true of old gold coins produced by the US. Most old gold brings a higher premium over spot value. But there are plenty of choices in bullion gold out there to choose from. The cheapest premium over spot is usually the Krugerrand. Personally I like to put smaller pieces of gold away in my safe for the future, because if gold ever does go through the roof, larger pieces may be harder to sell because of the $$ value involved. But keep in mind the smaller pieces usually demand a higher premium over spot value.
The dollar is going to be one of the strongest issues relating to bullion pricing. As the dollar continues to fall against foreign currencies the price of bullion should continue to increase. There are of course other factors.
If you are looking to buy bullion just call the coin shops in your area and compare prices. And when it comes time to sell, just do the same thing. Believe me, not all dealers will have the same price and it's worth your time to shop around.
Good luck!
JJ, what is gold and silver doing in your area? I, too, have a coin shop, and make a nice profit buying silver coin at 4X and selling it at 8X. Gold is a little tougher due to the higher value, but gold coins are very hot right now, eespecially the older uncirculated double eagles.
Posted by a surfer on :
Gold broke 800/oz today... IMO, it's gone up way to fast without a breather.. I'm guessing from the charts it will hit a wall at 810-815 and then there will be a big correction, though I doubt it will fall below 690-680/oz when the correction finally does come.
Posted by T e x on :
I remember reading Blue's first post on this thread...
I was *so* green, I thought sumpin' like: "Gold? Who cares?"
lol
Blue? You got it goin' on, man.
Posted by R1 Man on :
Part of why its soo high has a lot to do with its getting harder to mine. I saw something about Africa on Discovery Channel as being huge in gold mining but they are having a tough time mining it because its not as abundant now since they mined most of what they have. They said this was a main reason gold prices are soo high now. I never thought it would go this high.
Posted by a surfer on :
$824 for gold
15.47 for silver.
WOW...
Posted by NaturalResources on :
So much for that "wall" at 810/oz...
Gold still going up in Hong Kong and Sydney Markets as we speak....
832/oz at the moment... I hope it holds overnight... Should be heavy resistance though around 835/oz, which was the all time high reached back in the 1980's.
Posted by a surfer on :
silver now at 15.75... new high since 1980
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Hmmmm... guess the all time high for gold was 850/oz in January of 1980 , not 835/oz as I stated earlier...
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by NaturalResources: Hmmmm... guess the all time high for gold was 850/oz in January of 1980 , not 835/oz as I stated earlier...
LOL Well I thats a damn long time regardless.
It will be interesting to see the retraction on both in the coming days/weeks.....if there is ever going to be one...LOL
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Indeed...
One look at a 6 month chart and it seems inevitable that there will be a very large drop, perhaps of 90-100/oz by the time it is all done...
Hard to say for sure though, if you take the 1980 peak of 850/oz and adjust for inflation, you get a gold price of ~2000/oz in 2006 dollars... so perhaps this is just the beginning...
Posted by a surfer on :
When Simon & Garfunkel recorded "Bridge over Troubled Water" back in 1969, they knew they had a potential hit on their hands. And they were right, as it went on to become a number-one hit (staying atop the top of the charts for six weeks) and be covered by literally dozens of other singers.
Like Simon & Garfunkel, those who started investing in the gold market around 2001 have also scored a smash hit. Quite simply, gold has performed spectacularly here in our new century. And the best news? We’re still early in what should prove to be an epic bull run. With so many other investments looking dubious and the world economic situation experiencing significant uncertainty, gold can provide the savvy investor with a bridge over troubled water.
Demand Far Surpassing Supply
According to the World Gold Council, the demand for gold reached a record high of $65.3 billion in 2006, driven by strong demand for industrial purposes and jewelry manufacturing. At the same time, the supply of gold has contracted considerably. Central banks have reduced their planned sales, while mining companies have accelerated the unwinding of their hedge books. In fact, the mine supply of gold dropped by a jaw-dropping 15 percent during 2006.
This supply/demand imbalance is expected to continue - and it may even increase. Indeed, several recent articles have indicated that many central banks, including those in Spain and Germany, intend to curtail their gold sales. Most central bank officials have recognized that gold’s strong financial performance makes it a useful counter to the swings shown by the U.S. dollar. While it is no longer the foundation of the international financial system, central banks still consider gold to be a crucial reserve asset. Rumors are also abuzz that China and a number of wealthy nations in the Middle East have swiftly scooped up what little gold that the European central banks have been selling.
The data around the gold supply strongly signals that it will not keep pace with demand in coming years. The global mine supply of gold peaked in 2002, and has fallen each year since. Several of the world’s largest mining companies expect further declines in production next year, and are in a scramble to increase reserves through acquisition of new mining properties. Last year South Africa, the world’s single-largest gold producer, produced its lowest amount of gold since 1922 - and its overall output is down 72 percent from its 1970 peak.
Importantly, no major new mine production is expected in the near term. In general, it takes more than a decade to acquire, finance, build and staff a mine and commence production. The permitting process is also highly stringent, as evidenced by Coeur’s Kensington Mine in Alaska - a $250 million investment that has yet to process any ore due to issues around the disposal of waste rock - and Northgate’s Kemess North project in Canada, which has essentially been placed on hold due to environmental concerns. Compounding the supply problem is an acute global shortage of trained geologists, miners, diamond drills and mining equipment.
Demand, on the other hand, continues to increase in the face of the newfound prosperity and increased discretionary disposable income being freed up by the Asian economic boom, particularly in China and India. This is not a short-term trend by any means; rather, it is evidence of a long-term shift in consumption demand. Asia and its three billion people lead the world in economic growth. In much of Asia, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent, the people value gold as the best possible protection against both economic and political crisis. Throughout the developing world, gold is the most liquid, efficient and widely accepted form of exchange and the best store of value - especially in rural areas that lack access to banking services. Jewelry is coveted in the developing world, where it functions as both adornment and savings. Jewelry is often the only asset a Muslim or Hindu woman is culturally permitted to own, and therefore can be her only form of protection against financial adversity. Additionally, the dowry concept is alive and well in India today, where gold is commonly transferred from the family of the bride to the groom.
A Hedge Against Inflation and Irresponsible Money Supply Creation
The price of gold in terms of the U.S. dollar is up more than 30 percent over the past year, pointing to its status as a proven and effective hedge against inflation. In fact, gold has outperformed the Consumer Price Index by a factor of more than 2 to 1 over the past seven years. The gold market is benefiting from the fact that the annualized money supply growth in the world’s largest economies is increasing at a rate far in excess of the growth in each countries’ respective GDP - a situation that is highly inflationary and certainly not sustainable. Figure 1 shows how the money supply has been growing in some of the world’s leading economies this year.
Figure 1: Annualized Money Supply Growth
India 20%
China 16.9%
Britain 14.2%
Australia 11.2%
Sweden 10.6%
Canada 8.6%
United States 14% (estimate; official figure no longer published)
It is no wonder that gold has outperformed nearly every other asset class over the past several years, as it is protecting investors now in the same way that it has during other turbulent times. If gold had a voice, it would likely be heard to sing, “I’m on your side, when times get rough/And friends just can’t be found.”
Gold’s Special Qualities
Gold has functioned as an adornment and store of value for more than 6,000 years. The earliest gold jewelry dates from the Sumerian civilization that flourished around 4,000 BC. Gold’s intrinsic beauty, warmth, glitter, sensuality and spiritual richness have evoked powerful human emotions throughout history.
Gold plays a vital part as a symbol of love and devotion. It also has significance for occasions like weddings, anniversaries and birthdays, as well as a host of other holidays, ceremonies and customs. Consider, too, the ways in which gold has enriched our language - the best years of our lives are known as “the golden years”; an advantageous situation is referred to as a “golden opportunity”; a civilization’s time of peace, prosperity and creativity is referred to as a “golden era.”
The Bible contains a detailed and lengthy description of the role that gold played during King Solomon’s reign (1 Kings Chapter 10 verses 14-21). To hold a gold coin is to hold something that has provided security and value for thousands of years.
Just how rare is gold? How small is the supply? According to the World Gold Council, as of 2001 the total amount of all gold ever mined comes out to a mere 4.661 billion ounces. Given that the total world population now exceeds 6.6 billion people, there is less than one ounce of gold available per capita to invest in right now - a figure that shrinks even further in light of the fact that central banks already hold a considerable amount of gold.
Why is this relevant? For one thing, financial portfolio managers suggest that at least 5 percent of a person’s total net worth should be invested in precious metals as an insurance policy to protect against very hard economic times and periods of geopolitical instability. Yet very few people have followed this advice - which is somewhat fortunate, as there is not enough gold to go around should the general public ever decide to act on this advice en masse!
Concluding Thoughts
Gold is, quite simply, on a powerful run. It is currently trading at more than $800 an ounce, more than triple what it was going for just six years ago. As a result, gold is slowly and gradually appearing on people’s radar. It is becoming more mainstream - and making its way into Main Street portfolios.
Major investment banks and brokerage firms that were long silent on gold are now talking it up. On October 30, Credit Suisse, a major broker/dealer in precious metals, issued its price forecasts for gold: $838 an ounce in 2008, $950 an ounce in 2009 and $1,050 an ounce in 2010. Credit Suisse knows that the combination of slowing U.S. economic growth, the inflationary effects of rising oil and commodity prices and a change in supply-and-demand dynamics make gold a safe haven, which will put further upward pressure on gold prices given the tight supply. Soon enough we are likely to see one of the giants of business publishing a book that advises investment in gold and precious metals, which will likely serve as the tipping point toward a new Gold Rush in the financial markets.
Those who do not own gold need to realize that the time to act is now. Do it to protect and diversify your portfolio. Do it for family. Do it because commodity bull markets typically last 15 years or more, and this one is just beginning.
The train is leaving the station; don’t be left behind. The U.S. dollar may well continue to fall relative to foreign currencies. This will fan the flames of inflation as foreign goods become more expensive. Asian investors have been dumping the U.S. dollar since midyear 2007, and the central banks of Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam have either begun to or have signaled their intention to cut purchases of U.S. bonds. China is becoming less friendly to the dollar and clearly intends to diversify. August 2007 marked the first time since 1998 that the rest of the world has sold more U.S. treasuries than it has purchased. The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have trimmed our yield advantage over other countries, making for a situation that could not be more gold positive.
The world is awash in fiat paper currencies, none of which are backed by gold. The total value of all paper money and bonds in the world is $100 trillion, while the total value of all the gold ever mined is $3.7 trillion. Essentially, then, for every dollar in paper money there is only 3.7 cents worth of real money to back it up - a disconcerting thought to be sure. The time has come to bring gold into the portfolio and to let it be that “bridge over troubled water.”
Be a part of this historic bull run in gold, and rest easier at night knowing that you have preserved your purchasing power and own something of real and increasing value. As Simon & Garfunkel sang, "Your time has come to shine/All your dreams are on their way…."
Gold Is…
Free of religious or political affiliation Neutral on race, gender and language preference Easily transported Universally accepted A path to portfolio diversification, since it has a low or negative correlation to other major asset classes Impervious to corrosion, tarnish or decay Free from debt Rare, scarce and difficult to produce A rare and treasured thing that cannot be created on a printing press like a dollar, yen or peso can All but impossible to counterfeit Easily bought and sold anywhere in the world Incapable of being bankrupted Ewald Dienhart
****
Ewald (Eddie) Dienhart is Chairman of Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. (OTCPK- DGRI), an operator of proven gold mines in Southeast Oregon. For more information, please visit www.dutchgoldresources.com. Posted by a surfer on :
To me the short positions in gold and specially silver are the most compelling arguments to own each.
I have e-mailed the questions below to the mentioned parties.
In that speech, you assured the audience that the CFTC was, indeed, the cop on the beat, when it came to dealing with fraud, abuse and manipulation in the markets. Specifically, you stated;
"We are not some ‘Andy Griffith’ operation. We are more like ‘Elliot Ness’ or ‘James Bond,’ or in the case of crooked operations we are shutting down; we are more like, ‘The Terminator.’"
Based upon your clear words, I can only assume that you are unaware of the specific issues of abuse and manipulation that have been alleged in the silver market. In August, hundreds of concerned investors wrote to your Acting Chairman Lukken and to the CEO of the NYMEX, James Newsome (a former CFTC Chairman), asking three simple questions, as a result of my article, "Fighting Back." http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-21-07.html In a subsequent article, "The Royal Scam," two additional simple questions were asked. http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-28-07.html
Although almost three months have passed, neither Acting Chairman Lukken, nor Mr. Newsome have replied to these very simple questions, regarding the unusual concentration on the short side of the COMEX silver market;
If a net concentrated silver short position, held by 4 or less traders, of the equivalent of over 260 million ounces is not manipulative to price, what amount would be manipulative? Should a trader’s identity be shielded if allegations of manipulation are made? Please list those markets where the net concentrated short position, held by 4 or less traders, is greater than 150 days of global production, as is the case in silver. What is the purpose behind the compiling and publishing of concentration data in every market? When does concentration rise to the level of manipulation? Since August, the COMEX gold futures market has also developed the characteristics of a manipulation in progress, due to an unusual concentration on the short side, where the 4 and 8 largest traders have amassed a concentrated short position larger than at any point in history. As I am sure you know, concentration and manipulation go hand in hand.
In addition, concentrated short positions, when ultimately resolved, will necessarily cause an unusually large price reaction, either up or down, that has nothing to do with real world fundamental supply and demand considerations. This is against the most basic premise of commodity law.
Lastly, over the past few weeks, there has been an unusual build up in intra-market spread positions in both the COMEX silver and gold futures market to multi-decade records in each. I am aware of no legitimate economic justification for such an increase in these spread positions.
In fact, the only plausible explanation for these intra-market spreads is to camouflage the true extent of the concentration, in percentage terms, because the spreads artificially overstate the true open interest in COMEX gold and silver.
By removing these uneconomic spread transactions (all the non-commercial spread positions and a reasonable adjustment for the commercial spreads which are not reported) from the most recent Commitment of Traders Report, the 4 largest silver traders are net short more than 50% of the entire market, and not the 34.8% reported. In gold, the true percentage of the 4 largest traders’ net short position is 45%, not the 27.1% reported. These are outrageous concentrations and are easily verified by the CFTC.
Given the clear message in your public speech, I respectfully call on you to have the Commission and the NYMEX answer the above questions and the new concerns about the artificial inflation of the COMEX gold and silver open interest via the spreads. By not responding, doubts are created as to the Commission’s resolve about enforcement of the law. It is to no common good for the belief and appearance of manipulation to exist.
Respectfully yours,
Theodore Butler
Readers might consider contacting Commissioner Chilton on this issue and contacting (or following up on previous contacts) Acting Chairman Walter Lukken and NYMEX CEO James Newsome, as well.
bchilton*cftc.gov
wlukken*cftc.gov
jnewsome*nymex.com
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold closing in on 900/oz... could break through tonight.... Currently 897/oz.
Posted by a surfer on :
Hello NR
Any guesses on gold by march???
$1100 not out of the question IMO
Silver broke $16 for the first time since 1980 today!
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
Yup,900 before bell in am...The World Report comes on at 4am and it will prob be up there in te stratosphere somewhere.If you play subbies ABVG was up 100% on rumors of being bought out by a company in russia.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Hey Surfer,
I agree, 1100 by March is not out of the question, however short-term analysis IMO says Gold has gone up too high, too fast. I see a pullback over the next few weeks, with support at ~800, 750 and 700/oz.
Long term still looks bullish though IMO, as I expect the Fed will keep dropping rates over the next few meetings which theoretically should drive the price upwards. Plus, if you adjust gold prices for inflation, 2000/oz doesn't seem out of the question either by the end of 2008 early 2009... You never know though, this is uncharted territory.
As far as silver, I've been reading your posts and I have been watching for a good entry point for Sterling Mining (SRLM.OB). I own mostly gold stocks, but I want more exposure to silver. Any suggestions?
Posted by a surfer on :
CHICAGO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Vancouver-based Aurizon Mines [AMEX:AZK; TSX:ARZ] capped off a successful year by reporting 160,000 ounces of gold production from its wholly-owned Casa Berardi mine, only slightly below recent 2007 projections.
But even though it began production at Casa Berardi in May, Aurizon’s share price has yet to fully make the multiple transition from developer to producer. With its first full-year of production cash-flows coming in 2008, and excellent gold leverage, the firm is likely to be a significant beneficiary of a strong macro climate for gold.
For example, using National Bank Financial’s $800/oz gold forecast, Aurizon is only trading at a slight premium to its NAV. This is significantly light given the firm’s strong eight months of 2007 production and its respectable exploration upside.
For the coming year, Aurizon expects to churn out another 160,000 ounces of gold at cash operating costs of $394. The costs are expected to be higher than the past year’s due in part to expectations of continued strength in the Canadian dollar. But with capital and infrastructure expenditures coming in at a total of $18 million and current gold prices of $900 an ounce, it’s clear that the mine will still throw off significant amounts of free cash in 2008.
The ultimate production potential of Casa Berardi isn’t fully certain at this point, as the deposit remains open at depth for strong exploration potential. (The current operations are actually two separate mines on one property located in the prolific Abitibi belt.) In the coming year, Aurzion plans to invest about $10 million, with a strong focus on underground development and exploration of the areas between the two properties.
A resource update expected in February or March could be one of the tickets to propel the shares higher.
Beyond Casa Berardi, the company has another solid development target in its Joanna property, also located within the Abitibi region of Quebec. In December the firm reported results from 22 holes at that project with a weighted average grade of 3.8 g/t over a weighted average intercept of 2.25 metres.
Joanna is estimated to contain 11.3 million tonnes grading 1.7 g/t Au, for 630,000 ounces in the indicated category and 28.6 million tonnes grading 1.6 g/t Au, for 1.42 million ounces in the inferred category. Some analysts have recently said they expect the project’s 2 million ounce resource could double in size as it develops.
Three rigs are currently active on the site, and a preliminary economic assessment due sometime this quarter could also further spark interest in the shares.
All in all, the excellent development speed of Casa Berardi and 2007 production shows that Aurizon’s management likely made a wise decision in rejecting Northgate Minerals [AMEX:NXG; TSX:NGX] 2006 buy-out bid.
Given Aurizon’s strong development prospects, reasonable costs, and still cheap multiple, it’s likely that the firm could be a target of further M&A interest over the course of the year.
Posted by a surfer on :
another silver/gold stock that has big potential for 2008. $1.00-1.50 not out of the question IMO.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Thanks for the info A Surfer... I like CDE, strong balance sheet and lots of properties in stable jurisdictions... AZK? I own it, bought when NXG tried to buy them out. If you own it? Keep a close eye on mine conditions at Casa Berardi. The geology in the area is notoriously unstable. However, as long as they don't run into any problems in that department, it should be a good play over the next 2-3 quarters. (See middle of second and third paragraph in AZK press release dated Feb 1 2007: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070201/0210431.html )
Gold is looking like it has a decent start for the Hong Kong and Sydney markets... Spiked to 898 shortly after open, down a bit now, but I expect it will be up by the time markets open in NY tomorrow.
After that, it should depend on how the first round of earnings go.. I think several big banks are set to report this week, so be on your toes. Keep in mind however, last quarter numbers are already expected to be bad so company outlooks will be critical.
Also, the gov is set to release monthly numbers on retail sales, producer prices, consumer prices and home construction this week. IMO, they will reflect a continued slowdown in the economy and lead to a min 1/4 point rate cut at the Fed meeting on Jan 29-30th.
All in all, I am bullish for Gold the next 2 weeks, and I think we will test and break through the 900/oz level by the end of this week.
All IMO of course, NR.
Posted by CrashtehLine on :
I like the looks of CDE's Chart.
Looking for a buy in at 4.45
Posted by a surfer on :
In gold, the eight largest traders accounted for 95% of the all the COMEX commercial selling in the past three weeks (with the 4 largest making up most of that amount). Without this concentrated short selling, prices would have climbed much higher. The remarkable fact is that the natural hedgers, the gold mining companies, have been retreating from forward selling, leaving the question open as to who the heck the sellers are and what is their legitimacy?
At precisely the time the gold miners hold the lowest forward sale position in many years, the four largest traders on the COMEX hold a record net short position of 75 days of world mine production and the 8 largest traders hold a short position of more than 104 days world production. Gold’s concentrated short position, expressed in days of world mine production is the largest of any commodity other than silver.
The 4 or less traders in silver are now net short more than 282 million ounces, or more than 161 days of world mine production, another ugly new record. The 8 largest traders are net short almost 200 days of world mine production. Not only is this a record for silver, it is so far beyond a record for any commodity that I can confidently predict that no commodity will ever again have such a preposterously large short position.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Silver Coins and Silver Bullion Coins for Survival Purposes
My post from last Jan 22nd on another thread... It is always good to have something tucked away that will never be touched. Gold or silver IMO. This is a very good site and a good rep to go through for certs IMO.
Precious metals closed mixed on Monday as oil and stocks fell and the dollar rose. Gold closed in NY off $2.00 to $633.40/oz., while silver rose $.06 to $12.87/oz. "OPEC nations are unloading $10B in U.S. Treasuries as oil tumbles"... meanwhile, "China diversifies $1T investments to include more crude oil and metals..." ------------------------------
IMO when we get closer to hitting bottom gold will sell off to fortify losses and double down other positions throughout the major markets. Just like those scrambling to bonds to save their ass they also went to gold and silver. I won't say buying gold now isn't prudent. Having something solid is always a good thing. And we could see some new highs also. Just offering a different perspective. Amazing that it has only been 1 year eh?
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Feds cut rates 3/4 percent... Gold up to 890/oz from 850 this morning. There is also talk of another cut when the Feds meet on the 29-30th. If so, unless there is another pullback, IMO, Gold should move up above 900/oz again.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold back above 900/oz, and traded at a new high of 923/oz today. Currently trading at 912/oz. Short term looks like support at 910, 890 and 870, resistance at 925.
quote:Gold and platinum prices hit an all-time high after South Africa’s main precious metals mines were forced to close on Friday for lack of power as the government said the country faced a “national electricity emergency”.
Posted by a surfer on :
$930
Posted by NaturalResources on :
1/2 percent rate cut by the feds today, gold moving up. Currently at ~933/oz, a new all time high for gold prices.
Posted by BooDog on :
quote:Originally posted by BooDog: My post from last Jan 22nd on another thread... It is always good to have something tucked away that will never be touched. Gold or silver IMO. This is a very good site and a good rep to go through for certs IMO.
Precious metals closed mixed on Monday as oil and stocks fell and the dollar rose. Gold closed in NY off $2.00 to $633.40/oz., while silver rose $.06 to $12.87/oz. "OPEC nations are unloading $10B in U.S. Treasuries as oil tumbles"... meanwhile, "China diversifies $1T investments to include more crude oil and metals..." ------------------------------
IMO when we get closer to hitting bottom gold will sell off to fortify losses and double down other positions throughout the major markets. Just like those scrambling to bonds to save their ass they also went to gold and silver. I won't say buying gold now isn't prudent. Having something solid is always a good thing. And we could see some new highs also. Just offering a different perspective. Amazing that it has only been 1 year eh?
Down $15 Could just be a fake out. Some signs the bears may be weakening. Who knows????
Posted by BooDog on :
Hope so.i have options at 950 and 1000 for june.
Posted by stockmman on :
Dutch Gold Resources Retains David Brown & Associates for Independent Third Party Assessment of Benton and Gold Bug Mines Tuesday March 11, 10:00 am ET
ATLANTA, GA--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 11, 2008 -- Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. (Other OTC:DGRI.PK - News), a developer and operator of proven gold mines and a regional mill in North America, today announced it has retained David Brown & Associates to provide an update of its independent third party assessments of the Benton and Gold Bug mines. David Brown & Associates originally conducted an assessment of the Benton Mine in the spring of 2006, which indicated total reserves of 279,000 ounces of gold, consisting of 44,000 proven and 235,000 of probable ounces of reserves. The company began a drilling program during the second quarter 2007, and believes that the drilling data as well as the additional veins explored warrant updating the earlier study.
Dan Hollis, Chief Executive Officer of Dutch Gold Resources, stated, "Given the extensive amount of development and exploration work we have done since our properties were last assessed, an update of these findings is warranted. David Brown & Associates has done exemplary work for us in the past and we look forward to the completion of this latest update on our properties and estimate of ore reserves. The methodology for the property assessments will include basic geometric shapes and standard three-dimensional vein modeling. The report will be done according to the NI 43-101 format which is standard in the industry. A preliminary report is expected to be completed by the end of the second quarter."
Dan Hollis continued, "As we near completion of our most recent financial statement for filing with the SEC, a current and accurate assessment of our assets is an important component to the process. This assessment is also necessary for developing affective and efficient mining plans in our operations. We have gathered a significant amount of information about the Benton Mine and have additional data on new areas that we have explored. Proper interpretation of this information is critical to helping us fully evaluate the scope of our resource and bring about mining plans for the future that are effective and efficient."
About Dutch Gold Resources, Inc.
In January 2007, Dutch Gold Resources, Inc. acquired Dutch Mining LLC, which was founded in 1994. Dutch Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of proven gold reserves in North America. The company's strategy is to focus on overlooked resources which can be quickly and cost-efficiently brought into production. The Company currently owns two mines in Southwestern Oregon, consisting of the Benton and Gold Bug mines. Operations resumed in March 2007 and the Company has begun a drilling program to prove up additional reserves and enhance future development. Please visit the Company's website for additional information at: www.dutchgoldresources.com.
Certain statements in this release, and other written or oral statements made by the company, including the use of the words "expect," anticipate," "estimate," "project," forecast," "outlook," "target," objective," "plan," "goal," "pursue," on track," and similar expressions, are "forward-looking statements" and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties another factors that may cause actual results, performance, or achievements of the company to be different from those expressed or implied. The company assumes no obligation and does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
Contact:
Contact: David K. Waldman /Klea K. Theoharis Crescendo Communications, LLC (212) 671-1020
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold up $20(!) dollars/oz to ~1022/oz in early trading. Feds cut lending rate to financial institutions to 3.25 from 3.50, effective immediately. Don't forget Fed meeting on Tuesday.
What do you think another 3/4 point reduction from Bernake Tuesday??
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Yes, if he isn't forced to make an emergency cut tommorow. If so, I'm thinking 1/2 point and then another 1/2 on tuesday. I read an article earlier that suggested he could go as high as 2 points on tuesday but I doubt that.
Gold spiked to 1031/oz a little while ago, back down to 1025. Silver looking nice too, above 21/oz.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Feds cut rates 75 basis points, should be bullish for both Gold and Silver, but looks like the market had priced in a full 100 basis points... Both Gold and Silver are moving lower at the moment....
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold down double digits... Seems to be finding some support around 975/oz. So long as it doesn't go lower than this, uptrend on a price chart of the last quarter is unbroken and I will still be bullish on gold short term (2-6 months).
Should the 975 support level be broken, I will be bearish short term but bullish mid-long term. The next price support level should be ~900/oz but keep in mind that the loss of 70-80/oz over a short period of time (2-5 days) might force gold prices to experience an even larger correction, so I won't even consider buying anything until a bottom has clearly formed.
IMO, the strongest mid term (6mo-2 years) support levels are 800, 700 and 650, with a long term (2-5 years) support level of 450/oz. If gold were to reach 650-700/oz, I would definitely consider a purchase, though obviously, the conditions that caused the price collapse would weigh heavily on my decision.
However, with current global unrest, the US facing a possible recession, the current "financial crisis", the weak dollar, today's 3/4 point rate cut, the chance for another cut at the next couple of fed meetings, and dwindling production from major gold producing countries like South Africa I remain bullish on gold prices mid to long term.
Of course, as always, DYODD.
NR.
Posted by BooDog on :
Could have been a sell off to jump into some of the equities imo. I agree with you though - still bullish. Still way too much volatility out there.
Posted by NaturalResources on :
Gold taking another big hit today, down to ~945/oz. Short term support of 975/oz has been broken. Now we need a reversal at these prices or we could be looking at 920/oz or less by Friday.
Posted by glassman on :
they are tightening up on margin in the commodities, this is probably a good thing in the long run, but it also smells of market manipulation at the highest levels..
What's more, banks that lend money to trading clients to finance their commodities bets are taking new steps to shore up their cash cushions amid the global credit crunch. Over the past few weeks, many brokerage houses and trade-clearing agents have required or are considering requiring futures traders to post more collateral, or margin, to cover the daily fluctuations in the value of their bets, traders say.
If investors don't have enough cash to meet the margin requirements, they might have to close out some positions to come up with more money -- which could drive prices down further.
Futures exchanges, which often clear, or stand behind, trades between parties, are also raising their margin requirements. The Chicago Board of Trade, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange in the past month have raised minimum margins for wheat futures due to the market's increased volatility.
Yesterday's big drops also showed that profit-taking at these levels is tempting. In the week ended March 12, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds investing in commodities futures and raw-material stocks commanding total assets of $65 billion saw a net outflow of $485 million, the largest weekly drop this year, according to EPFR Global, a research firm tracking global fund flows and asset allocation.
"The biggest risk is when speculators are all lined up on one side," as they are now, says Peter Kordell, director of research at Jigsaw Commodities, a Minneapolis-based commodities broker. "When it comes to an end, it's vicious because everybody is running for the door at the same time."
Gold is considered "anti-inflationary" and a "safe-haven", and what better time to have a "safe-haven" than right now? The markets are getting slaughtered, the financial system is paralyzed, and the gov is printing and spending money like it's going out of style.
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