posted
pushing 17-year highs at $458/oz, seemingly mainly on inflation fears.
Anyone really liking any gold stocks now, in particular juniors?
i admit my gold stocks are likely too boring for the OTC players here: only have 3 long-term holds in IRA accounts - NTO, NXG, and EDV.TO.
as a side note, platinum has also had a pretty good run to $922/oz, palladium still mostly in the dumps though.
on an even more tangential note, Purl brought up GPXM here, my only other metal holding is i have a teeny bit in a similar moly play - ROK.V. a little surprising to me that moly prices bounced and moved up to $35/lb but stocks like GPXM and ROK.V have gone nowhere.
gold is danged hard to figure: so many people claiming so many different pulls on it. some view it as purely an inflation hedge, some view it as really the "anti-dollar", some look at demand for things like jewelry and ignore other influences. probably all have a grain of truth, but - at least for me - is tough to sort out all the influences both positive and negative on gold prices.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
great article. I have been hesitant about the gold market. I just don't know enough about. Openheimer has a great metals stock which I am seriously considering entering. Openheimer is traditionally a huge roller coaster in many of their stocks but excellent returns if you can stomach it.
I am also considering playing currencies. I have a lot to learn there though before I even chance it.
-------------------- Life only has so many choices, choose wisely. Posts: 97 | From: California | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Gold always moves up in the fall/winter and tumbles back in feb. Look at this mutual fund...
OPGSX
It has a 10 year history of this type of movement. I always load up on it around May and dump around November. I'm in for $15.50 a share....up 32% right now. Its good for a 25-35% gain yearly if you follow the history of the charts.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: pushing 17-year highs at $458/oz, seemingly mainly on inflation fears.
Anyone really liking any gold stocks now, in particular juniors?
i admit my gold stocks are likely too boring for the OTC players here: only have 3 long-term holds in IRA accounts - NTO, NXG, and EDV.TO.
I own some NXG, but only have been in for a few months.
The first two quarters they removed mostly low quality and waste ore from the Kemmess South pit and are expecting to be moving into the higher grade material for the rest of the year, so it appears they will have a good second half and the latest info shows they are on target for projected gold production this year.
The process of realizing operations at the Kemmess North site is moving forward fairly smoothly. The only obstacle I see there is finding a way to get the ore from the Kemmess North site to the processing facilities at Kemmess South. If I remember correctly, there were discussing a tunnel with a conveyor belt, but it may have changed since I checked last.
Also, the latest PR was regarding a merger with Young-Davidson Mines and acquired operations in Alberta Canada. I haven't done much DD on that but I plan to this weekend.
I do have some internet aerial photos of their operations, (though a bit outdated), including the latest Young-Davidson property if you are interested.
I plan to hold NXG until the end of the year at least, and see what happens from there.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example. Posts: 2430 | From: CA | Registered: Jun 2005
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posted
yeah i haven't checked in on NXG for awhile. awhile back i looked into gold stocks and allocated 50% to NTO, 40% to EDV.TO, and 10% to NXG, those were my 3 favorites. but i basically put them away as long-term holds and only check up on them once a month or so. i did see the merger news but, like you, was planning on researching that this weekend.
i also agree that historically gold has been very cyclical, the array of factors that play on gold prices are often contradictory and complex though, at least for me. i'd be very cautious in terms of playing with currencies etc, that is complex too and not for the faint of heart. as an example, gold is often viewed as an "absolute" currency or anto-dollar, so that when the dollar goes down, gold often goes up in relative terms. but - lately the dollar has been going up *along* with gold going up, seemingly mainly due to inflation fears overriding the anti-dollar relationship.
is funny if you go to kitco or some of the other metals sites and read the articles, a whole lot of "experts" widely disagree on factors at play and where gold is headed. partly for that reason, i mainly just picked a few gold companies i liked best and split a small % of my overall holdings between them. i'd rather spend my time researching small promising companies than struggling to figure out where gold is headed.
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"My answer is bring them on." — George Bush on Iraqi insurgents attacking U.S. forces, Washington, D.C., July 3, 2003
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
I have some NXG, PGOL and DROOY. They are all long term plays. Short term I like SLGLF and APLL. RTP is going crazy right now, they are a worldwide mining company into all mineerals from coal to diamonds to iron ore. (I work for a subsidiary of theirs). They are making huge profits on copper and iron ore.
Posts: 3 | From: Wyoming | Registered: Sep 2005
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first thing i notice from yesterday's trading is that NXG lost 3% (on a day when most gold companies were up 2-3%) and ODM gained 2% on the merger, so am guessing that NXG shareholders were less than pleased with the merger terms.
going through the past 200 or so posts on the yahoo NXG board, hoping for some perspective and to get the "pulse" of the NXG shareholder mood based on this merger news: there is nothing, a bunch of worthless posts, people cheerleading or bashing with no basis.
clearly they are a junior company - no real income, mild ~$150k losses per Q for expenses. stock has been pretty flat the last year or so.
will keep looking into, but - guess it all boils down to how good the Young property pans out. they talk about the resources, ie:
" Acquisition of one and a half million resource ounces of gold which include almost half a million ounces of gold (Measured & Indicated Resources) within a low-strip ratio open pit configuration and slightly more than one million ounces of gold (Inferred Resources) in a low-cost bulk mineable underground configuration. "
but of course "in-the ground ounces" doesn't mean much, in the end it comes down to how cheaply you can get it out, how gold prices are doing especially in relation to if the company hedged or not, etc.. only time will tell if this was a successful gamble by NXG to grow larger.
in terms of time frame, looks like won't be immediate, from the PR:
"- Post acquisition exploration program is scheduled to begin in early 2006 with an initial Cdn$3 million diamond-drilling program focusing on the many established targets within the claim package."
so perhaps in the short term NXG fell a bit yesterday based on the fact that for awhile they will have to take on the expenses of Young (including the $3M to drill) without getting any cash flow back from production.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
the problem in trying to evaluate in particular junior gold companies is - imho it is very difficult to interpret data and PR's. they all have to do with terms like "oz/short ton", VEZ zones, vertical strike distances, reefs, geophysical peaks, isolated geochemical anomalies, linear parallel beds, paleozoic sediments, airborne magnetic surveys, mafic volcanic mineralization, channel samping, you name it. i have a couple hard science degrees and am generally a geek willing to learn new scientific things, but - don't even pretend to fully comprehend the full significance of every single term used.
plus, of course all the junior companies try to couch it in the best terms possible, and hype up "xxxM inferred gold ounces in the ground!" and all that. honestly, imho i don't put much stock at all in the whole "ounces in the ground" stuff - it all boils down to: can you drag it out *profitably*.
this is part of why i like EDV.TO: their management seems intelligent and geologically skilled. i leave it up to *them* to decide which juniors are promising, they know better than me. they were smart enough to fnance companies like NTO very early on, that's a good enough track record for me. also, they can make $ off the financing, even if the junior companies don't end up panning out. if the companies *DO* pan out, they can make a ton off warrants. i also like their modest dividend and that they trade at a whopping discount to NAV (trading at 3.62, NAV 5.04 as of 8/31 before the bumpup in gold last week).
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posted
Hi Blue, have you ever checked out Goldcorp Inc (GG)? I used to have this one. Bought it at 13+, but sold it a few months later. It has a small dividend that's distributed monthly. I wanted to get back in, but I'm not sure if it's peaked or not. Just curious on your thoughts. Thanks.
-------------------- "As long as there are dreamers, there are dreams that will come true." Posts: 862 | From: CT Yankee..... in FLA | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
One company I am familiar with in gold is Novastar (NVAS) . .
Although gold is not their hot-point in my book, I thought this might be as good place as any to give a heads up and keep on the radar . .
Anyway, another of the company's foci is the mining of Thorium (Th), which I understand to be a peaceful alternative to Uranium for nuclear power, as it does not become weapons-usable upon degrading.
One source I read from indicated that there is much more energy available in Thorium than either Uranium or fossil fuels, as it exist in 3x more abundance than Uranium. However, it's not expected to be important for energy until some time down the road.
A recent PR indicated that the comany acquired the rights to a new mine for the next 99 years.
Anyway .. just something that I came across . . could be totally off-base about future potential, but thought I'd throw it out there! GL all
Posts: 21 | Registered: Sep 2005
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"Thorium is now thought to be about three times as abundant as uranium and about as abundant as lead or molybdenum. The metal is a source of nuclear power. There is probably more energy available for use from thorium in the minerals of the earth's crust than from both uranium and fossil fuels. Any sizable demand from thorium as a nuclear fuel is still several years in the future. Work has been done in developing thorium cycle converter-reactor systems. Several prototypes, including the HTGR (high-temperature gas-cooled reactor) and MSRE (molten salt converter reactor experiment), have operated. While the HTGR reactors are efficient, they are not expected to become important commercially for many years because of certain operating difficulties."
in reviewing a bit more, for example from this link:
looks like thorium has been researched and used especially in russia and india, but also has some caveats, ie:
"Problems include the high cost of fuel fabrication due partly to the high radioactivity of U-233 which is always contaminated with traces of U-232; the similar problems in recycling thorium due to highly radioactive Th-228, some weapons proliferation risk of U-233; and the technical problems (not yet satisfactorily solved) in reprocessing. Much development work is still required before the thorium fuel cycle can be commercialised, and the effort required seems unlikely while (or where) abundant uranium is available. Nevertheless, the thorium fuel cycle, with its potential for breeding fuel without the need for fast-neutron reactors, holds considerable potential long-term. It is a key factor in the sustainability of nuclear energy."
which i see is linked with your NVAS, seanwill: the Thorium Power CEO Seth Grae has a seat on the Novastar board:
"In addition to leveraging existing energy industry and government relationships, Mr. Grae will work with Novastar's executive team to effectively structure and implement a wide range of international business transactions in the areas of nuclear non-proliferation and energy generation."
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
superbee, i also looked into GG a bit back when i was researching gold stocks in more detail. it was #4 on my list and i almost bought some, obviously it would have been a better choice than NXG, ah well.
they seem to have low cost, are profitable, and growing, and pay a dividend; those are all good.
but, i agree with you - they've run up quite a bit, to the point where their forward P/E is fairly lofty at 30. for me personally, (a) i hate to buy run-up stocks, even though often they of course keep running and (b) i tend to deal with things like logic and P/E, but of course the market is often illogical, momo-based, and sometimes leaves P/E considerations in the dust.
so if you wanted my honest opinion, personally i'd be a bit wary of GG only because it's had a whopping gain lately: a straight line up from 12 in may to 20+ now. that's almost a double. i always look at things in terms of risk/reward proposition, and there's no doubt the risk part with GG is much higher now at 20 than it was back at 12.
but - of course if you read around the threads here you see that i sell too early all the time. and of course many in the "you have to pay for quality" camp would disagree with me and say that GG looks like a good buy now. if gold *does* go to 500/oz, i'm sure GG would continue to do well.
good luck whichever you decide, buy vs stay on the sidelines.
quote:Originally posted by Superbee383: Hi Blue, have you ever checked out Goldcorp Inc (GG)? I used to have this one. Bought it at 13+, but sold it a few months later. It has a small dividend that's distributed monthly. I wanted to get back in, but I'm not sure if it's peaked or not. Just curious on your thoughts. Thanks.
posted
Thanks for the info blue. . Just something I'm keeping an eye on for the not so near future, hahah Posts: 21 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
doubt can hold it, but - gold +8.40 today to 467-range, +1.8% on the day on top of last week's gains. most gold stocks up only mildly if at all, NXG is up about 7-8% though.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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Gold is "holding up after the Federal Reserve's rate increase," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
The latest U.S. rate increase should have been the catalyst for a move lower in the precious metal, but global purchases of gold have been sufficiently strong to cancel out the Fed, he said.
The "rate increase on top of hurricane damage means that a recession is increasingly on the horizon," Schmidt said, adding such a combination is "bad news for dollar and deficits."
From here, prices will likely "see some backing and filling but overall, these markets remain healthy," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "If the recent dollar rally stalls and turns south this would certainly underpin the precious metals markets," he said.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
maybe it was gold that was "wrong" keithsan, pulled back to 463.
honestly, i just dunno with gold. i go back to my original thoughts about it in the first post of this thread:
"gold is danged hard to figure: so many people claiming so many different pulls on it. some view it as purely an inflation hedge, some view it as really the "anti-dollar", some look at demand for things like jewelry and ignore other influences. probably all have a grain of truth, but - at least for me - is tough to sort out all the influences both positive and negative on gold prices."
i find gold companies interesting, and i "like" metals. even collect some coins with my kids.
but - i really only look at it as appropriate for a very small % of one's investments, or for *very* experienced traders to try to play short-term. just too danged hard to figure out otherwise. i like a few gold companies and will continue to hold them, but - as for stepping in and doing a lot more gold investing, just not for me.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
gold looked like was going to tank at the open but then bounced back to 466-467 range, looks like a lot of indecision and uncertainty in the gold markets in the moment.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example. Posts: 2430 | From: CA | Registered: Jun 2005
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up again, down again: gold back down this am. mainly seems to be on the strength of the USD, and forecasts of higher interest rates. interesting article discussing the pullback:
gold has an interesting "lunatic fringe", is amusing to scan some of the goldbug message boards at times. some people are actually convinced that the entire US economy is going to collapse, and that gold will become the true monetary system once it does. some amusing posts in various places by people actually convinced that they will be able to trade gold coins for things like ammo and canned corn once the US goes back to the stone ages after the economy completely collapes.
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch Last Update: 9:59 AM ET Sept. 27, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell as much as $4 an ounce Tuesday morning, pressured by weakness in crude prices and strength in the U.S. dollar.
"With energy prices taking a breather and the dollar firmer off hawkish comments from Fed members, we would expect ... weakness in December gold with profit taking possibly pressuring prices back to support between $462.30 and $460," said Nell Sloane, analyst at NSFutures.com. See Currencies.
"However, given the uncertainty in the energy complex in regard to refining capacity and oil production, a down side correction in gold should be limited," she said in daily commentary.
Gold for December delivery fell to a low of $465.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was last at $466.50, down $3.
"The precious metals are holding up fairly well in light of the dollar's overnight strength," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.
"This just bolsters my opinion that a low was made in December gold and, should my outlook for the dollar actually come to fruition, we'll look back in a few weeks and see that the decline in the dollar was the catalyst for what should be new highs in gold and silver prices," he said.
Other metals futures in New York were mixed.
December silver lost 6.5 cents to trade at $7.30 an ounce and December copper shed 1.65 cents, or 1%, to $1.72 a pound after tapping a record of $1.74 on Monday.
December palladium rose $1.25 to stand at $199 an ounce and October platinum added $1 to $918.50 an ounce.
Tracking inventories, copper supplies were down 376 short tons at 8,074 as of late Monday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were down 44,689 troy ounces at 116.8 million, while gold inventories stood at 6.04 million troy ounces, down 611 troy ounces from the previous session.
Indexes tracking the metals-mining sector headed lower, with a 1.7% fall in the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) to 238.59 leading the declines.
The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index ($XAU: news, chart, profile) fell 1.5% to trade at 109.99 and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX: news, chart, profile) traded at 99.1, down 1.6%.
Among the bigger losers, shares of Kinross Gold (KGC: news, chart, profile) fell 3% and Meridian Gold (MDG: news, chart, profile) lost over 2%.
Posts: 33 | From: ES | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
continued bounces up and down, gold back up to 469-range. most gold stocks up about 2%, NXG up about 7% today (though didn't move at all yesterday on the new mineralization find news).
"A combination of some light dollar weakness, in tandem with some very strong energy markets, brought the funds back to gold and silver," said David Meger of Alaron Trading in Chicago.
"It was pretty apparent that you were seeing buying into dips when you look at these markets over the last two days," he continued.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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like i said before, i'm not real big into gold, too hard to figure out. but - still holding both of these, plus NTO.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
I think the best gold stocks to buy right now are juniors. I have been looking into a couple of juniors that are in Mexico. Palmarejo (PJO) and Paramount Gold(PGDP)I was surprised to find them in very good company. I ran across this report by Canaccord Capital, below is an excerpt from it, after reading this I picked up the cheapest of the two juniors’ (Paramount). after reading the report At .80 cents I think I think this is a great buy.This area looks very good.
Happy reading: Mexico continues to be an attractive choice for mineral exploration/development companies. In 2004, Mexico attracted US$154 million in exploration investment, second only to Peru with US$196 million in exploration dollars spent in Latin America. Important factors driving the interest in Mexico include a strong mining tradition dating back to the Spanish in the 1700s, solid geological potential, unexplored or under explored areas, good communications and infrastructure, stable mining law, experienced labour pool, political stability, no restrictions on capital flows, and proximity to North America. We have reviewed five North American mineral exploration/developing companies advancing epithermal gold (Au)/silver (Ag) prospects in the Sierra Madres. Within this report, we use a number of criteria to assess the companies and their underlying Au/Ag assets. Company Symbol/Exchange Rating Target INITIATING COVERAGE Alamos Gold Inc. AGI : TSX SPEC BUY C$6.25 Gammon Lake Resources Inc. GAM : TSX HOLD C$8.85 Kimber Resources Inc. KBR : TSX SPEC BUY C$2.25 Minefinders Corp Ltd.* MFL : TSX HOLD C$6.50↑ Palmarejo Gold Corp. PJO : TSX-V SPEC BUY Y C$3.70 *transitioning coverage from Graeme Currie. Source: Canaccord Capital
Posts: 22 | From: Ottawa | Registered: Jan 2005
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posted
surprised so few posts about gold this week, finally broke the 500 mark, a solid week all-around for most metals actually. interestingly though, gold itself did better than most gold stocks this last week.
EDV.TO finally broke the $4 mark, i still can't find a better gold stock than endeavour.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
still surprised not much gold talk on this board, has had a heckuva run lately up to about 540/oz.
endeavour - EDV.TO, NTO, NXG all hit 52-week highs today. have been adding more EDV.TO periodically on dips, which have been few and far between lately. they released yet another solid Q right before the holidays
"With metal prices continuing at record levels, our cash flow in the coming year should be excellent and we will easily meet our goal of becoming debt free by the middle of 2006"
I am thinking about grabbing some more shares of NXG soon.
I haven't heard of GV, I'll check it out though.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example. Posts: 2430 | From: CA | Registered: Jun 2005
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quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: ....on an even more tangential note, Purl brought up GPXM here, my only other metal holding is i have a teeny bit in a similar moly play - ROK.V. a little surprising to me that moly prices bounced and moved up to $35/lb but stocks like GPXM and ROK.V have gone nowhere....
GPXM touched it's previous 52wk high in intra-day trading on friday.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example. Posts: 2430 | From: CA | Registered: Jun 2005
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posted
NXG has been pretty steady riser. Wish I owned more/ had more $$ to get more.
Posts: 260 | From: Carbondale, CO | Registered: Nov 2005
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