posted
I was thinking the exact same thing. $5 a share is not out of the question. At $5 with around 15 million shares puts the company worth at $75 Million which is not much considering the company should have revenues over $100 Million over the next year (They say between 70-80 Million but that was before Katrina)!
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
HOM and PDGE have similar earnings the last 6 months. HOM earned .04 2 Q's ago and then .04 last Q, for .08 total. PDGE earned .05 and then .03, also for .08 total.
HOM has about 24M shares O/S for a market cap of about 127M, PDGE has about 14M shares O/S for a market cap of about 34M.
of course these are just *rough* numbers and comparisons, there are a *lot* of different factors like balance sheets etc that come into play in trying to place relative values on each.
also of course, we're talking trailing P/E's, the forward P/E can only be projected. as you pointed out before though bucks - both have made acquisitions that should add to future earnings. i think it's "fair" to at least compare the companies on a rough basis, they are in relatively similar industries even. and my bet is that the forward earnings per share of HOM and PDGE for 2006 might be relatively close to .25-range a share for each.
i like both companies, but - of the two, PDGE appears the more undervalued to me.
i'm not sure about $5, but - certainly i think PDGE is at least capable of topping $4 over the next one year, especially now that they have added flagship to the fold. we'll see.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
really now that i ponder on it more, that is a pretty wide disparity. basically HOM is valued by the market to be worth 4 times the amount PDGE is worth.
that is out of whack.
i like HOM, but - i liked it a lot more back when Purl and i were talking about it at 1.50-2, than i do now over 5. i would have a hard time justifying that HOM is worth 4x what PDGE is worth. HOM to me is fairly valued now, while PDGE still strikes me as undervalued.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
oops, i have to apologize. i rarely make mistakes in my numbers when posting here, but - i did this time. i was mixing up my columns, it was actually *2* Q's ago that PDGE made .05 for the Q. they made about .055 as near as i can tell for the last 6 months, by my calculations.
so that makes a little more sense, a little less out of whack now.
based on that, i somewhat retract my previous statement: i believe HOM should be worth more than PDGE. but - not 4x as much, even twice as much would be a serious stretch.
however, my apologies for mixing up the 2 PDGE quarterly results.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
With the private placement I should of known this was coming. Now the fully dilutive shares are 31 MILLION!
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
I think it is fairly valued now. Someone was buying at $2.2 though. It tested that many times but did not break it. Hopefully this won't fall below $2 Monday.
I don't know why but American Bulls issued a Buy-IF for this one after todays trading!
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
the PP was necessary to raise funds to buy flagship, and i still think that based on their numbers that PDG got a great deal on flagship.
but there appears to be more here than just the flagship acquisition. for the moment i am withholding judgement though until i can read the entire S-2 and sort it all out. will post on in the future after i've read the whole thing and tried to figure it all out.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
american bulls isn't worth much imho. they fudge their numbers. they issue say a "buy-if" and then if the stock runs they bank it as profits as if you had bought at the previous closing price. they were slightly more interesting when they just posted a "buy" or "sell" and didn't fudge their numbers as much with the whole "if" crutch.
i admit that i'm a fundamentals and not a technicals guy though, so maybe the whole candlestick deal is just not my thing
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
sometimes it is a pain in the ass and frustrating to be blue_in_MI. trying to sort out all of this S-2 for the last hour, have about 11 browser windows open and making notes trying to correlate all of these different warrants etc back to previous PR's and track them all.
i've read hundreds and hundreds of SEC documents in their entirety over the last few years, but - i admit this is one of the most complicated transaction streams that i ever tried to figure out. shares and warrants broken down into 9 different segments, with a few of them being these series C preferred.
and in the end, sometimes i wonder if it's even worth it; 99% of PDGE holders won't even bother to read the whole thing so in the end i'm simply reliant on what the crowd will do to determine PDGE's future pps movements.
sometimes in periods of frustration like this i wonder if i need an entire paradigm shift of the way i look at the market. as the 2-3 people who have read my posts for awhile here know, i always try to rely on my own research and buy companies that *i* like and think will do well.
maybe that's wrong though, maybe i instead need to base my research on "what stock could i buy (regardless of any research or SEC filings or own thoughts on how *i* think it will do in the future) is likely to go up based on an uninformed investing crowd becoming aware of it and thus having it build momentum and upward buying pressure for a quick play?".
eh i guess that's mostly just 5am frustration talking, but - still, sometimes i have to stop and wonder about things, heh.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
eh maybe i am just overcomplicating things.
maybe i should just forget reading this S-2, and as you did osubucks, just assume the worst case and that the new O/S is about 30M. note that i am not sure that this is not technically true - is a complicated mix of warrants and shares. but, being a pessimist and skeptical by nature anyway: will just assume about 30M shares from now on.
so, in trying to shed all of the complexities, what does the question become?
in simplest terms, i guess one way to look at it is: can PDGE earn enough after-tax profit in the upcoming 4 Q's to achieve a P/E under about 15? so in rough numbers, can they achieve about 15 cents a share profit next year, based on 30M O/S, or: can they earn $4.5M profit over the next 4 Q's?
is a little complicated to look at past earnings and try to sort this out. for one: tax issues, clearly PDGE has lost it's tax carryforward and thus some of their oct-31-04 Q where they booked $1M profit has to be taken with a grain of salt: that was still in the carryfoward-assisted period.
PDGE, sans flagship, earned $700K taxed profit over the last 2 Q's. my guess is that due to the hurricanes, it will be more than that over the next 4 Q's. obviously, they are quite busy now. so, still being conservative though: i am going to say that they stand a good chance to bump up their profits from 350k a Q to 500K, for $2M guesstimate profit over the next 4 Q's.
then, add in flagship. all we have to go on for flagship, is this one short paragraph:
"For the year ended 12/31/04, Flagship had unaudited revenues of $19.4 million and adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.2 million. For the 7 months ended July 31, 2005, unaudited revenues were $17.8 million with a pre-tax profit of $2.3 million. Current backlog for Flagship is in excess of $5.5 million, creating a combined backlog in excess of $40 million."
so let's say in rough terms: $2M profit over the last 6 months for flagship, their margins are clearly better than PDG's. so one could estimate perhaps $4M over a whole year. perhaps optimistic, but - really it's hard to believe that flagship would not be ridiculously busy with rita business also, with offices in arlington and houston.
of course, there are 2 adjustments necessary to that $4M profit guess number: (a) tax, and (b) flagship still gets a cut of the profits for the next 18 months, despite the acquisition.
direct from the 8K:
" The transaction also includes additional consideration in the form of an earn-out arrangement over the first eighteen-month period commencing on the closing date, pursuant to which the Company is required to pay Flagship 35% of the net earnings of the former Flagship operation in excess of $500,000."
so let's do the numbers, assuming our $4M profit: basically it chops off .35*(4M-500k), or about $1M of profit off. so let's call the new "effected" guesstimate profit $3M, and we'll chop 500k of that for taxes. so let's say, ballpark and conservative: should be on the order of $2.5M profit contributed by flagship over the next 4 Q's.
so adding together: that leaves us with conservative guesses for the next 4 Q's of :$2M profit for PDGE, along with another $2.5M contributed by flagship; for $4.5M total guess profit for the next 4 Q's.
which happens to be exactly the original number i first bandied about in this post, in terms of the: "can they achieve an estimated forward P/E of about 15 over the next 4 Q's?" question.
so, i guess: that's my conservative guess in terms of next 4-month prospects for PDGE, that shey should earn about $4.5M.
note though that there are several other factors to consider, both Pro and Con, such as:
PRO:
* katrina/rita factor. i've been conservative in my estimates, but by all accounts - indications are that flagship and PDG will have a ton of work due to hurricanes this year, probably significantly more than last year.
from the 9/14 PR, Regan stated:
"Growth in revenues and, more importantly, earnings continued in the second quarter thanks to solid organic growth and focusing on improving operating efficiencies. The recently announced acquisition of Flagship Services Group will start to enhance our revenues and earnings, and with the tremendous demand for our combined services as a result of Hurricane Katrina, we are anticipating continued growth in revenues and earnings in the second six months."
* after the next 6 Q's pass, PDGE no longer has to give flagship their 35% cut of the profits, all of the profits will then go to PDGE's bottom line
* any potential large FEMA-type contract that could pop up for PDGE could suddenly propel them to a whole new ballpark
CON:
* still sorting out the S-2, but i admit that i still feel a little "sucker-punched" by yesterday's filing. maybe it was a failure on my own part in terms of not being diligent enough in all of my research, though clearly i have been trying to keep up with it. maybe not. i dunno. a lot of the stuff in the S-2 was clearly simply due to flagship and fully expected. am still trying to sort out the "surprise factor" though. in any case, no guarantee that there won't be more dilution over the next year.
* PDG of course has to make sure to earn *margin* on any work they get, as flagship has appears to have done. PDG appears as if they could learn a lesson or two from flagship in that regard.
* there is no way to tell what all of these holders like the "tailwind fund" etc will do with their shares. will they sell them and thus create downward pressure on the PPS, or are they long-term investors who will hold for years? dunno, probably some of each.
based on this, i guess it's up to everyone to draw their own conclusions and weigh pros against cons.
i admit that PDGE deserved to be knocked down a bit yesterday. was previously way undervalued, and perhaps got a big overvalued in the momo run.
but - i still think PDG, based on 2.22 close, has an excellent chance to achieve enough profit to drive their P/E down to 15 range. and could well possibly be 10-range if katrina/rita work pans out well for them. while the scope of yesterday's S-2 was disappointing, i don't see any reason to hit the panic button. they still strike me as undervalued by a bit, and will continue to hold some long.
i guess purl has stepped out for awhile, but i don't suppose anyone else has any other thoughts or analysis or corrections to add?
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
heckuva opening weekend for the big 10, eh bucks? some huge games.
really an interesting one in osu vs iowa. iowa plays much better at home, but - they're dangerous, i think a good shot at slowing down osu's running game. really is up to troy smith, he'll have to have a good game to back up the D for a win; we'll see. doubt iowa will get much of a running game going either, it will be up to tate to make big plays. may come down to turnovers and mistakes, we'll see.
pur/min really an interesting one too. pur's DL vs minny's great running game. probably purdue's toughest game all season, am rooting for minny. also of course UM/UW, am very nervous about that game.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Ohio State destroyed Iowa today. I guess Iowa is not that good.
Michigan and Michigan St will be a great game next weekend. The Buckeyes have the week off so I will probably watch. Michigan St can sure put up the points so I hope the Wolverines D is ready!
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
I am glad that Purdue lost. Just doesn't seem right that they could win the Big Ten without playing Ohio State or Michigan!
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
eh is going to be a long season in ann arbor, bucks. turns out blue_in_MI was an apt handle for me to pick, 3 different connotations: blue as in maize and blue, blue as in my political leanings, and at least this year: blue over my collapsing football team, heh. michigan football will be back, but - clearly it's going to be a long year and this isn't a vintage UM team. quite an interesting 2-game stretch for MSU: really they should handle UM easily next weekend, but then MSU at OSU the following week could well decide the big 10 title
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
rollercoaster day: 1.90 to 2.30 trading range. took half off the table at 2.28 and advised family to do the same, risks at least somewhat elevated at least in my mind due to the S-2 being so large.
but - still holding the other half long based on my above thoughts, still like their chances to do well over the next 2-3 years.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
oops my mistake, make that 2.23 i sold a chunk, 2.28 was the price at the time of my last post and i mixed them up.
all in all, not too bad a day for PDGE. probably a lot of people didn't realize about the S-2 on friday and figured it was just a pullback after the runup; but then more people would have had a chance to learn of the S-2 over the weekend. so i find it encouraging that it was basically flat on the day and recovered from a 15% morning dump. my guess is will continue to show some volatility, but - generally consolidate around here for awhile. we'll see
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
contracts announced look pretty good, another $5M added onto the $40M backlog. am not too worried that PDGE will run short of work over the next few years.
apparently CNBC did a bit on mold tonight, but i did not catch it.
really the most interesting paragraph from today's PR was this one:
John Regan, Chairman and CEO, commented, "In addition to the above significant contract awards, PDGE continues to increase its hurricane response activity along the Gulf Coast. We currently have over 400 workers and supervisory personnel employed at a number of sites providing emergency response, demolition, drying and reconstruction. The $1.5 million contract awarded to Flagship was a result of damage from last year's hurricanes and is an indication of how long reconstruction due to hurricane devastation will continue."
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
not surprisingly, volume has slowed considerably and PDGE now looks to be in a consolidation phase, bouncing between 2.15-2.30 range. i suspect will stay in that range awhile, pending any news or other activity that would act as an impetus to move it up or down. never know though, the momo-crowd who bought in could get bored and sell and maybe drop it below 2, which would have me looking to add part of the chunk i sold back in. we'll see.
pretty interesting upcoming 2-game stretch for your buckeyes, eh osubucks? rightfully favored in each, but - both PSU and MSU are dangerous teams. i like their odds to take the big 10 should they win these next 2, but - there's always the scheduling issue too. wisconsin has an easy schedule the rest of the way; skipping both OSU and MSU; and getting iowa at home. alvarez in the past has proved a master of parlaying an easy schedule into a big10 title, could happen again this year if OSU stumbles. honestly i think the scheduling system is pathetic; right now the 2 teams you skip has as much to do with winning the big10 as how good of a team you have. starting the year after next, iowa skips both OSU and UM. what needs to happen is to drop one of the preseason cupcake games, and return to a 10-game big10 schedule (with the addition of one more allowable game next year). UM and OSU are both on record in favor of this plan. but - will never happen, too much $$ to be made by scheduling home dates with patsies.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Blue, I put mine at 1.92 LOL. Just passed by our warehouse today and saw 4, 18 wheelers off-lading raw materials or other stuff like that on pallets. Didn't have much time to get in since I was on my way to class.
Posts: 510 | From: Dallas, TX | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
The Big Ten needs to add a team so there will be 12 and make 2 divisions and play a Championship game. There should be one champion of the conference not two.
I figured this would happen. If the volume doesn't pick back up it will drop more. We will see tomorrow.
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
wow, absolutely crushed today; just hit 1.52 - no new news or filing that i can see out today. just added another chunk back.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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Man do they need an offense. Only give up 190 yards and still lose! They probably will lose to Michigan State because they have a high powered offense. Even if our D can hold them to 20 points we will lose because we can't score. Put OSU defense with almost any other offense and they would be undefeated. Although Ohio State has not had an offense since Tressel has been coach.
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
yup, that was quite a game, i have to admit that i thought OSU would take them. certainly been a disappointing season for both of us, me more than you though - ugh.
can't believe PSU is a 3.5-pt *dog* this weekend vs a bad UM team, i bet on PSU right when the lines came out. have to admit, i bet on sparty also, taking the 7. imho sparty has one of the best offenses in the country, still have no idea how UM managed to beat them on the road.
re: PDGE, no idea what happened today: crashed to 1.52 early, bid moved up to 1.80 by close. just plain weird.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
PDGE....a damn nice stock for a long term hold. Had it last year, sold and made money.
Posts: 3607 | From: NJ - Outside Phila. | Registered: Mar 2004
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unbeleivable day in the big10 and college football in general, eh bucks? what a weird game for your bucks: they didn't run a play in sparty territory until there were 5 min left in the game, but still won by 11. usc/n-dumb, man - epic. min/wisc, amazing ending. a ton of games went down to the wire yesterday.
have only missed a handful of UM games in 19 years and have a seen a lot, but - maybe the most amazing ending have ever seen yesterday. just pure joyous bedlam in the stadium afterward, have never hugged so many people that i never met in my life, and my voice is completely shot still today. what college football is all about, just the greatest sport on earth.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
just took 2.16 on 1/3 of my PDGE, still holding the other 2/3 though.
no idea why so volatile: range the last week has been 1.52-2.19, with no news or other impetus to justify such bouncing around
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
pretty wide trading ranges for this one the last few days: low-1.80's to low-2's. keeping core 2/3, swing-trading the other 1/3. hoping for a dip back to 1.70's or so to add more as people get impatient waiting for PR's about cleanup activity, we'll see.
pretty tough road tests for both UM and OSU today, eh bucks? am very worried about NW, they absolutely took sparty behind the woodshed last weekend. who would have guessed a few weeks ago that NW would hang 49 straight points on sparty in their own backyard, dang...
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Michigan looked good against NW. Maybe Michigan State was stunned by the defeat to Ohio State the week before (MSU should of won). Ohio States offense is starting to look pretty good.
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
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