PDGE filed their 10Q today, and it is a good one. Very nice report showing good gains for their financial bottom line.
Share price dropped ten percent today. Go figure.
Blue, I have been contacting investor friends, today, and discussing PDGE as an investment for the next thirty to ninety days. We have agreed each of us will dump five grand into PDGE early morning, hopefully with prices still below 1.20 per. It might be pre-market trading will drive prices up quickly.
Below 1.20 per share, a darn good buy. Between 1.20 to 1.25 per, a decent buy. At 1.30 and above, well, maybe ok to buy.
My expectation, concensus is PDGE will move back to the 1.30 to 1.40 range within twenty days, but may do even better over the next three, possibly six months.
I urge readers to be cautious, to read that 10Q carefully, look at charts, read company news, then make a prudent decision.
This could be a bad tip, you could lose money, I could be dead wrong.
Take a look at PDGE and give it some thought. My expectation is to earn ten percent on this one within ten to twenty days. If so, a decision to hold or sell, will then be made.
Purl Gurl
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue, I know you are already vested in this one. Maybe average down? Hopefully, our buying in tomorrow will prompt an upward swing in prices.
I urge you, Blue, to continue holding, which you are sure to do, being a savvy trader.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
hi Purl, yeesh been crazy lately, barely time to check the markets.
yeah a disappointing dip in PDGE. have read a little of today's news, though still need to fully digest. i was hoping for .03, they came up with .024 or so per share. still, a good Q from what i've read so far. i guess people were looking for them to match their last Q where they earned a nickel, though anyone who followed it closely would have known that taxes would start to kick in.
PDGE, HOM - both similar in several ways. clearly growing, clearly value stocks, but - for whatever reason they can't generate sustained investor excitement, at least yet. the only way i know how to play either is to hold half, and swing-trade half. no way am selling at 1.15, is ridiculous. even if you factor this last Q's earnings over a year (despite the fact that this is their slowest Q historically), still a low forward P/E of 12. will continue to hold, i agree with you that is undervalued at these prices.
another interesting factor is the state of the acquisition, will be interesting to see the news of this that they alluded to in the PR today down the road.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Both HOM and PDGE exhibited the same behavior after releasing good financial reports, at least in my opinion, good reports.
Previously I suggested possible shorting to accumulate HOM shares. Now I am not so sure.
Not an expert on this but it seems shorting would not take place for both stocks, that would be quite the coincidence.
A possibility romping around in my mind is some investors expected "stunning" profit results. They may be disappointed with simply a very good report showing slow but constant growth. I like those type of reports, those which show strong slow growth, free of fluff and hype.
Might be some starting dumping setting off a downward spiral, which triggered stop losses. I don't know, just a possible which would apply to both HOM and PDGE, equally.
Another factor might be many are buying into this myth of a real estate bubble burst, and that is all it is, a myth. Nonetheless, some do believe that myth and might be moving out of real estate related industries.
Regardless of what is causing this downward shifts in price, I am very adamant about both HOM and PDGE being way undervalued. Financial reports are very good, growth is good, I cannot find any negatives for either company.
A positive is HOM share value is beginning to move up very nicely. With so much in common, I would expect PDGE to do the same, in time.
Tomorrow morning's opening for PDGE, I suspect will be hot and furious. Our group's hope is to be able to jump in before prices go back up.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
not sure how much of an effect people speculating on FL hurricanes and how they will/won't affect ongoing business has been.
is funny, seems like i have frequently been invested in stocks where this is a "factor", at least in people's minds - IPII, PDGE, JMIH, even HD.
i'm too stubborn to sell any HD stock either, also a long-term hold. maybe is in part because i spent about $5-6k there the last 2 months, heh
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue - PDGE
Orders are being filled very slowly at 1.18 per.
Share price jumped to 1.20 per upon partial fills for some our orders.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
out of curiosity, is your bid being reflected as the best bid on your ticker? mine never do, for example if i bid 1.18 on 5000 PDGE, i'm sure the best bid on my ticker would stay at 1.16. was curious if things were different for you...?
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Yes, same on my E*Trade live feed.
I know there are lots of orders in at 1.18 per but those orders do not show. As I type, spread is 1.17 / 1.20 while many 1.18 orders are current, and of interest, last trade was at 1.16 per.
Market Makers rarely display actual bid / ask.
We are sticking with our 1.18 buy orders and will make a decision later today if we should bump up our orders a penny or two.
At 1.20 per, PDGE is still an excellent buy with strong potential for a ten cents per share gain over the next couple of weeks.
Posted by man4apenny on :
re pdge I think this is a true value microcap and thinks it is rodney dangerfield. "Just can't get any respect". Someone from ihub sold because of lower profit margins (false btw) and tough comps for the next few qtrs. (Depends on hurricaine season as far as how many and how severe). Checked the recent forescast and they are predicting 7 hurricaines with 3 being major ones so it could very well be mots (more of the same) as last year. Wish I could buy more here.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Man 4 A Penny, people are too impatient. My opinion is a majority of online traders expect to earn one-hundred percent profits in one day. Clearly an exaggeration on my part but a truism.
Despite my sarcasm it is very true online traders are in a hurry and do not like to invest effort into making money. They are self-centered which leads to unrealistic expectations and laziness.
Within context, if you can earn ten percent on your money in a year, that is very good. Earnings of ten percent over a quarter, is excellent.
I am more than willing to hold a stock well beyond a quarter to earn ten percent. ALMI, going on holding that one for two years, with profit very near three-hundred percent. PDGE, although my excitement leads me to think profits will be sooner rather than later, PDGE I am fairly sure will be a one to two quarter hold.
On your storm season, yes, I do expect certain companies to report significant profits after the season is finished, after repairs are made and revenue can be reported. PDGE might become a hold until the end of this year.
This impatience of online traders frequently works to yours and my advantage. These great prices on PDGE is a direct result of those impatient people selling off because they didn't earn their expected one-hundred percent profit in a day.
Works for me! They sell driving prices down to very good buy levels, I buy and wait. Later in time, I cash in on their mistakes.
Posted by Krysten911 on :
PG-
I must say you have my research engines moving. Once you get used to some of the lingo- OK so I have a dictionary by my side, trends are easier to realize and make educational judgements on. PDGE so far is behaving as you have said, quite similiar to that of HOM. I am neck high in all these SEC filings. This research portion is rather addicting.
I do like the statistics on the PDGE client base. I believe that if they maintain a lower percentage in government/ public institution contracts, they will have a better shot at making and maintaining more revenue. Once a company relies on city/ state and public agencies, it is almost the kiss of death to become a major competitor in any field. The factor becomes state budgeting instead of disaster relief or other private ventures. Just my two cents of today.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
"Once a company relies on city/ state and public agencies, it is almost the kiss of death to become a major competitor in any field."
Your comment is very true. CLSI is a prime example. CLSI is a company which specializes in parking lot services. Inherently, those services are aimed at governmental and quasi-governmental agencies. CLSI share prices are currently stagnant, which reflects a lack of money in the hands of government agencies, especially municipal governments.
CLSI is doing just fine with constant quarter reports of profits, but they are having a hard time expanding into the private sector. They are beginning to expand outside of government contracts, but are having to spend capital to do so, which keeps their earnings fairly flat.
Choice for CLSI is to work at dominating the market in parking services, which they are working at doing. However, they are still stuck within your comment about regulated revenues. This will not always be true for CLSI.
"I am neck high in all these SEC filings."
No doubt you are pleased to be so.
"This research portion is rather addicting."
Your reward is more consistent profits. Greatest mistake online traders make is not performing good research.
PDGE, like CLSI, exemplifies your comments. Those selling under 1.20 today, selling PDGE, are making a mistake most likely because they did not perform good research, but rather were winging it on a hope of fast profit, for no personal effort.
Since late 2003 / early 2004, those investors making consistent profits, have moved their money into value stocks. Yes, slower growth but more frequent small wins. Value stocks can only be found through good research.
It is all in the numbers, percentage numbers.
I urge you to continue with your learning how to research. I have never found learning to be harmful to a person.
Posted by Krysten911 on :
This game is certainly a lesson in patience. Though I may not be the smarter, one of my pennies rose to %83.5. I held through it though because I believe that company is going to suffer pumpers and dumpers for awhile before true value comes into play. For me, the decision to ride the wave or buy and sell is a tough one that I am still trying to work out a solid strategy for.
PDGE is quite frustrating. Even from $1.20 to $1.18 on Yahoo finance, orders are still being filled at a snail's pace. I am patiently waiting to get on that band wagon at $1.18. This order has been live for two hours. I hope to be able to acquire this one for a long term.
Posted by vg on :
Purl have any of your group orders been filled
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
VG, only partial fills today. Most orders were at 1.18 per, a few at 1.17 per. The 1.17 per orders made no buys.
My order, got about two-thirds of what I wanted.
I have not yet checked in with my girlfriends to tally how much was actually purchased. My best guess is about half of today's volume went to us; not enough.
We had hoped there would be "close of market" fills on our orders, didn't happen. Appears sellers are holding firm to 1.20 per share.
Tomorrow is another chance!
Posted by vg on :
Purl has the snails pace finally caught up or not yet, Ameritrade is showing me that only 7900 traded today I wonder why
Posted by vg on :
Ameritrade is showing that nite is sitting on the ask at 1.17 but no movement. I got filled at 1.17 this morning but I had only 400 shares wonder why its so slow no one wants to sell I guess
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
A few of us are trying for 1.16 buys, but no luck.
Buyers are there, but no sellers at lower prices. My hunch is Market Makers are trying to accumulate just as we are.
I expect PDGE to back up to 1.30 per within the next five to ten business days.
Current ask, 1.18, 1.22, 1.30 and up. That will change during the course of trading but a spread like that indicates upward pressure.
Posted by Krysten911 on :
PG- I was able to sneak in on a fill or kill only for 1000 shares at 1.16. The rest fell in at 1.17. That was certainly a quick window.
By the way- as I had mentioned- I got greddy and blew my opportunity at 5K. It pays to set your percentage limits and stick to them!
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Krysten, we do need to perform good research, need to make informed decisions, but a final analysis is the markets are a crapshoot.
PDGE is showing signs of gapping up, current spread,
1.14 / 1.19
Upward pressure continues to be applied.
My expectation is PDGE, next week early, will show volume at 1.20 to 1.22 and late week 1.24 to 1.26 per share. I'm crossing my fingers upward pressure will prevail as savvy investors take control of the market in PDGE stock.
Posted by vg on :
purl are you still trying to buy at such low prices or just waiting it out?
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Currently waiting it out. Prices are only three to four cents below our average buy price. That is not enough to warrant averaging down.
I suspect volume will continue to be light at these somewhat lower prices.
Friday Light. Volatility is almost always greater on a Friday, but volume is always light.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Ok, trying to average down at 1.09 per share.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Interesting, prices are rogue at 1.09 / 1.09 with a buy at 1.07 per.
Perhaps this is the bottom of the downticking.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Now 1.09 / 1.18 trading at 1.17 per!
Back to 1.09 / 1.10 with last trade at 1.17 per.
Love that market manipulation! This is the time to seriously look at PDGE for those interested.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
weird - a lot of playing "guessing the bottom" today. at one time had orders out for PDGE at 1.07, ALMI at .98, ETLT at .20, and FRGN at .43.
a hint of sunshine today in the otherwise very overcast picture for long-underappreciated value stocks lately was: NWD. very, very nice day for NWD!
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Great day for NWD. Almost forgot about this one with holding it for so long. A few of us in our group are in at .66 to .67 per share!
I really love these long term value stocks.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue, you should move to California.
Yesterday's shaker was a doozy! We are very close to the epicenter, nice clear hot day to boot!
Shake and Bake!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i spent much of last summer in CA, much of it beautiful but the traffic would drive me crazy, heh. of course, i can't afford it, also. really is amazing - very difficult for many people from any other part of the country except for maybe NYC and environs to move to CA. a friend of mine was offered a job at cisco out there when they closed the cisco office in ann arbor in a consolidation. and he turned it down for one and exactly one reason: the $300K he would have got for his average 3BR/2BA in ann arbor would have fetched him: a delapidated 2BR/1BA shoebox a 90 minute commute in CA. he instead is contemplating between moving to NC or finding another job here.
as for NWD, yup nice to see a value stock have a good day, haven't been many lately it seems like. you mentioned "almost forgot it", maybe this is actually a good strategy with stocks like NWD and PDGE and CLSI etc: buy them, try to ignore the often frustrating short-term swings and investor disinterest, and check back in 3-4 years and see how they did.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
There is comfort in holding value stocks, a type of investment you can forget about knowing share value will increase over a long period of time.
Fun to play volatile pennies but the real money is in long term value stocks.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
On California, although our population is increasing from across the border, more people are moving out of our state than ever before.
Baby Boomers are coming of age and money. Many of our values established in the Sixties, have not been lost to time. We still hold to our dreams of moving out to rural areas to lead a private and peaceful life, even if as Green Acres farmers.
We continue our search for a large parcel of land somewhere along the eastern Sierras in California. Eventually we will leave Southern California for reasons at which you hint; traffic, pollution, over-crowding, crime.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Nice gains today, Blue. I expect PDGE to move back to the 1.28 to 1.32 range within twenty business days, maybe a little earlier.
Have a look at the CLSI thread. Two pieces of good news recently. As you know it is the habit of CLSI to only announce news when it is a "done deal."
No hype, no fluff, just the facts, ma'am.
I like that.
Posted by vg on :
I think i'm liking the smallcap long term stocks just because I could still go to school and not worry about the volatility in the regular small caps running up and down. Purl what is a good price to get into CLSI? or the other small ones that you had previouslu in the other threads?
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
"...smallcap long term stocks...."
For two years, this is the real money.
To profit off volatile penny stocks, since 2003, you need to be on a live feed, constantly watching, constantly trading. Even so, it is becoming very difficult to profit to a degree to justify using so much of your time.
Long term value stocks, very safe bet.
CLSI, a good entry point is .017 or below.
You are to be cautioned CLSI is an extremely long term hold. CLSI is not right for everyone. My long term hold for CLSI means years from now.
CLSI will not fall below current prices, but it will take a year, two years, for prices to move upward to a significant degree. Blue will comment CLSI is a good hold for a child's college fund.
CLSI is little known, is not an exciting stock, and exhibits very slow but steady growth.
Part of this is a habit of CLSI to not release news until it is a "done deal." They do not release typical hype and fluff. News is far and few between, but their news is almost always good news. CLSI is well managed by a conservative team noted for not taking risks.
My suggestion is you only invest loose money which won't be missed. Money going into CLSI will not return a profit for a very long time. Patience is a must with value stocks like CLSI.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue - PWCL, 10Q today is not so good. Down eighteen cents on the day. Might be good for a bottom bounce play, if interested.
I expected a better report, disappointing.
Least this time the share price drop is justified.
PDGE holding steady but still low volume. Still a surprise with such a good recent 10Q filing.
HOM, acting just like PDGE.
Both PDGE and HOM are reporting excellent profits yet prices remain stagnant. Hard to figure because PDGE and HOM are worth so much more than PWCL but prices are close to equal. Not a clue what is going on in trader's minds.
Go figure.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i did take a quick look at PWCL but have been so swamped lately that never got around to studying fully.
not much to say re: PDGE and HOM, both sinking today. eh, you never know with fickle investors though, eventually stocks often catches on and value is eventually realized. watching AOBO run lately has reminded me again of this (much like NWD finally moving up a few weeks ago did) - I owned AOBO for awhile, got frustrated and gave up and sold for only an 8-10% profit, but finally they moved (only *after* i sold of course, heh). regardless, i'm just too stubborn to sell HOM or PDGE at these prices anyway.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
I am holding HOM and PDGE certainly. Both companies are strong, profitable and undervalued.
PWCL, on a "wait and see" status now.
Fascinating PWCL is not even close in value to HOM and PDGE, but share price is right in there.
That does highlight your comment about investors.
Posted by vg on :
Good time to get in if you want to hold, down to 1.05 if I had more cash available i'd be in I guess i'm stuck with what I have.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PDGE now trading at about 14x earnings for the last 6 months. disappointing has dipped so low, but - am not going to sell it for 1.06, i want to wait to see how the acquisition and the rest of their business goes for awhile.
Posted by vg on :
Purl And Blue HOM is finally moving some glad I stuck with them. Blue you finally doubled up
Posted by vg on :
Hey Purl and Blue the Tornadoes and hurricanes are here. PDGE has already started moving up. Would be good if it moves like HOM
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
hi vg, yup i still own some PDGE. has been one of my most frustrating holdings ever, but - nice to see it move up a bit today. hard to disentangle how much is due to hurricane stuff (with PDGE being involved in environmental cleanup), and how much is due to this PR today:
finally some news about the accretive acquisition. need to sit down and fully read it tonight, so far have only skimmed.
Posted by vg on :
PR looks good blue. Terms of acquiring should be out soon so more news, could make it go up. Or if the exchange is too good(pay them too much) might make it go up real fast for everyone trying to make a quick buck and dump and down again. I guess the hurricane news will come out a little bit later on when they start repairing all the damaged stuff.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
no big details out yet, but - does look promising at first full reading.
"Flagship's expertise includes the repair and reconstruction of damage caused by wind storms, fires, and floods as well as mold remediation."
it would seem to me that they'd have some work down south in the coming months.
"For the year ended 12/31/04, Flagship had unaudited revenues of $19.4 million and adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.2 million. For the 7 months ended July 31, 2005, unaudited revenues were $17.8 million with a pre-tax profit of $2.3 million. Current backlog for Flagship is in excess of $5.5 million, creating a combined backlog in excess of $40 million."
not only does flagship have good margins and is profitable, but they are growing - made almost as much as the first 7 months of this year, as they did last year.
quite a large backlog as well, between PDGE's old backlog plus flagship's new one. i like backlogs.
vg i think you are right in that it may boil down to the exact terms of the acquisition agreement. clearly, PDGE had to issue shares and cash to get flagship. flagship certainly looks like a good addition at first glance, am hoping that it's addition to PDGE's bottom line is well worth it in terms of cash and shares paid for it. i'm going to keep holding PDGE.
Posted by vg on :
Blue i'll keep holding been in for some time since Purl brought it up and some more time in it doesn't really matter. The only thing about the PR that I dont like, its about small companies, when they talk about "unaudited" results. There is very little to verify them. But it does look good.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
nice bump up today, currently at 1.27x1.28 spread
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
getting a nice second wind here after a minor pullback, 1.38x1.39 now
Posted by vg on :
whats with the pull back every time it goes up blue, are there any group plays on this one?
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
beauty of a close - 1.40 with some big blocks going through before the bell, up from .93 last thursday. quite a nice run
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Yes, very nice run. I continue to hold PDGE. My hope is PDGE will move up like HOM and NWD.
Made a killing on HOM and NWD. Quite the surprise.
Appears new support is firm at 1.35 per for PDGE. I would not be surprised if PDGE moves up into the 1.80 to 2.00 per range. Very good news today which includes excellent net profits for the company, now and more so in the future.
Did you catch the quick mention of repairs for "wind damage" in their news? Hurricane damage is the driving force behind HOM stock and its recent up run.
Hope all is well with you and yours and you have made good progress with your patio project.
Purl Gurl
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
I should add, Blue, patient investors like the two of us are the ones making good profits during these bad markets.
HOM - NWD - PDGE all required patience and have paid off exceptionally well.
HOM - bought that one last year, and more months back, average 1.35 per.
NWD - bought this one over a year back, and more earlier this year, average .67 per.
Got into PDGE a few months back at an average price of 1.13 per share. You bought some about the same time period.
Readers, if you are to profit in these horrible George Bush created bad markets, look for value growth stocks, and be very patient.
You will do well to follow Blue's picks. His personal "win" score is over eighty percent.
Posted by BuyTex on :
agreed, but you both post so rarely, these picks get lost in the shuffle...
ya, I can hear the answer to that, already, lol, just making a minor point...
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Well, if you don't shuffle the cards, the game becomes mighty boring in a hurry, especially if you are playing Old Maid or strip poker.
Don't listen to Tex. In another thread, he has been identified as a snotty nosed brat who carries horny toads in his pockets.
Tex, might be time to start looking at stocks which involve alternative fuels. Long term investment, yes, but with gasoline prices the way they are, for good, hydrogen, methane and especially electric cars, are looking like the wave of the future.
I've been looking for stocks related to Texas horny toad farming. No luck, yet.
Posted by BuyTex on :
lol, barnett shale is the Texas energy play.
Others are bio-tech stuff
and the r/m play...uhhhh, SMKT, if I remember correctly. Good company, can't say about the stock, yet...
there's a decent windfarm play, the only "penny" I know of in that market...Peaser or I one posted on it, a while back; will have to check the ol' notebook...
if I could find the right fuel-cell co? I would hire on...
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Trivia, cattle, specifically dairy cows, produce so much anal methane gas, they are listed as a major source of air pollution (serious).
When a company invents a device which butt sucks methane gas from dairy cows, I am buying in!
I would advise readers, though, to stay away from investments which involve Arabian stud horses; those can be killers.
Posted by BuyTex on :
wtf mentioned cattle, you provacateur?
lol, duck, boys--Katrina stole Purlie's thunder and it's hell to pay now
Posted by BuyTex on :
oh, i get it on second read, my bad...yes, methane is a serious future-fuel, especially for fuel-cell technology
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
* bangs on her Thunder Bucket *
Clank! Clank!
In today's modern world, we no longer use a Thunder Bucket, like we did during winter in Oklahoma. Kinda miss squating over a Thunder Bucket and making rude noises.
Today, I wear a Thunder Bucket on my head when I attend all girl soccer games at our local school, a freshly cleaned bucket, of course.
I have a problem with soccer moms and cell phones.
Katrina, pfftttt...
...just a noise in a Thunder Bucket.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Tex, you been sucking cows again? Telling ya, that methane is not good for your brain, most certainly if you are a smoker.
Every witness what happens to a farmer who sucks methane from a cow, then to relax afterwards, lights a cigarette?
Ain't pretty.
Posted by BuyTex on :
sucking cows?
ewwww...what an untoward image...
lol, heard of farmboys loving their stock, but a methane fetish?
That must be sumpin you've picked up since you left Choctaw country...
Wiley! come home...they're perverting you out there...
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
Queen Bee, welcome back! glad to see you, i was starting to drone on too much to my boring self in a variety of threads.
this summer was ridiculous - too many projects, but - finally finished them all. just driving by home depot and seeing the orance color now officially sends waves of exhaustion over me - time to knock off all projects until next spring, heh! slowly working my way back up to the few hours a day of stock research these days. i hope you and your family had an enjoyable summer, Purl.
yes i did see the wind damage stuff, have been trying to do some flagship research these days. as i mentioned to vg, i think some of the extent to which PDGE might be able to sustain a run into the 2's might depend on the terms of the acquisition. my initial thoughts are that they might have gotten quite a good deal on it, but - more research and terms released before can draw any true conclusions. then again, it could be that the terms are irrelevant and that it really depends on whether PDGE stays "hot" and has "investor" groups piling in - you and i are more prone to spending hours combing through deal details at 2am than many other investors. dunno.
regardless, am going to keep holding for awhile - PDGE hardly strikes me as overvalued at this point. their big (and one would expect, growing) backlog combined with flagship strikes me as offering a bit of a safety net: i doubt we'll be checking PDGE Q's 6-9 months down the road and reading about how revenues are way off and business is slow.
it's interesting in trying to analyze PDGE's movements lately that there was a "double-driver": katrina hit right around the same time as the flagship acquisition was announced. i suspect most of PDGE's rise has to do with the former, but - in the long run my impression is that it may well be that the latter is what justifies and sustains higher prices 6-12 months down the road from now. dunno - we'll see.
it is funny - many of the "boring" value stocks you and i often tossed around months ago *finally* moved lately. HOM and NWD the obvious examples, but - ETLT has been interesting too lately, eh?
CLWY of your "dust off the plants" thread really soared awhile back too, hope you caught that one. a few others others we've discussed - ROBE, ITEX, etc., took awhile but also nice runs eventually.
missed ALMI by a penny yesterday - i was on the bid at 1.01. ah well, maybe will get there today, one can hope.
i'm "behaving badly" and have developed a strong interest in a very non-blue_in_MI stock, GFCI. have a small position now, contemplating a larger one though. am crazy to even look at it, i know, it's *far* from HOM/PDGE/etc.. but, i still find it intriguing nonetheless - maybe you can knock some sense into me, slap me around, and point me back towards "boring" value stocks, heh.
quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: Yes, very nice run. I continue to hold PDGE. My hope is PDGE will move up like HOM and NWD.
Made a killing on HOM and NWD. Quite the surprise.
Appears new support is firm at 1.35 per for PDGE. I would not be surprised if PDGE moves up into the 1.80 to 2.00 per range. Very good news today which includes excellent net profits for the company, now and more so in the future.
Did you catch the quick mention of repairs for "wind damage" in their news? Hurricane damage is the driving force behind HOM stock and its recent up run.
Hope all is well with you and yours and you have made good progress with your patio project.
Purl Gurl
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
PDGE - up twenty cents at market open.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
beauty! took a little chunk off the table at 1.62 primarily to hopefully take advantage of any potential ALMI buying-opp dips, but the rest of my PDGE am going to hold
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
HOM - sold too soon as usual! Up almost twenty cents as well. DRAT!
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
ALMI, that last news release was great. I like the way Jacobson is moving slow and cautious. His mentioning of not seeking lending is very encouraging. This talk of moving a "nano sorter" onsite at the mine, is an exciting "hint" for investors of what is to come.
Yep, slow moving boring stocks with big returns!
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue, NWD is beginning to come back down. Might be good for another buy in a few weeks or so. Chances are good it will bounce back, maybe around 1.60 to 1.80 share, bounce back to 2.00 per share.
Keep an eye on NWD. Hard to predict this one because it is, or was, a very slow mover.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
heh, the story of my stock life is to sell too soon, don't feel bad!
actually rebought my PDGE chunk at 1.57. my guess is that despite the bouncing around today it can close at 1.65, we'll see.
have also been watching NWD lately - i agree, perhaps a chance to get back in may be forthcoming
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Sell too soon, sell too late, never get it right!
I was tempted to sell below your price at 1.60 per share. Then I thought about HOM and how it kept climbing after I sold.
"Nope, this time I am holding PDGE longer!"
Hit 1.75 per and I thought to sell.
"Nope, this time I am holding PDGE longer!"
Now its back down to 1.62 per!
GAK!
Ain't that the thrill of stocks!
Posted by Bob Frey on :
Most always sell to soon here.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Ten years back, twenty years back, thirty years back, I never imagined I would watch my personal wealth increase and decrease as much as ten grand per day, or even per hour!
Drives me nuts and to eating too much.
Back then, I had a hard time imagining myself having ten bucks in my pocket! As a young child, to have a dime in my pocket led me to believe I was very rich!
I contribute my graying hair and growing butt to age, but I know it is this stress of stock market playing! Constantly pulling at my hair and stuffing food in my mouth while watching my money grow and vanish, over and over!
It is Karma paying back from long ago. Such a scam artist I am. I convince a boy, next farm over, to swap coins with me. I have a few pennies, three or four, and he has a dime. I tell him more coins are better, my coins are dirty, and would he trade his shiny dime for my coins. He does. Grandpa catches me, switches my butt good for "cheating" and makes me give the boy back his dime. He gets to keep my pennies as well.
I think the boy planned it that way.
Stock markets are not much different.
Posted by Bob Frey on :
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
it is funny, i never really have any stress when it comes to my own holdings.
but - i do feel the stress and occasionally toss my keyboard across the room when stocks i have my dad and brother buy tank. when ETLT tanked to .135, i wasn't upset about my own losses and even calmly bought more, but i felt *horrible* about having my dad buy it at .40, ouch. am quite sure that's the largest % loss he's ever seen in his life on a stock, normally kellogg's is about the most volatile stock he'd ever buy, heh.
i'd much rather lose $ for myself than have any suggestion i take cause any family member to take a loss. luckily, i have a bit of a "buffer zone" with both my dad and brother where i'd have to make years of boneheaded suggestions like to load RVNM to ever drop me into negative territory with them: they were both big buyers of ALMI early on. whew! the thing that makes me happiest about this PDGE run is that i felt *lousy* for having my dad and brother buying large chunks around 1.20 and watching it tank to .92, but obviously am quite relieved the last few days to see i'm officially bailed out of the doghouse on that one.
Purl i'm sure with your proven brilliance in the market that you have a lot of friends and family asking you for stock advice, so maybe you know what i mean a little about the whole "suggestion stress" thing.
Posted by vg on :
I forgot I had left GTC sell order, it sold at 1.60 and i'm now wondering if I should get in please PM me Purl with ur suggestion if u were in my position
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
wow, sentiment swung completely and now people who just learned about PDGE yesterday are hitting the panic button. just put in a buy order at 1.43, we'll see
Posted by osubucks30 on :
I agree panic selling now. Most of the volume came from $1.60 and above. With the dip it is a good buy. This has lower share count then NWD so if the volume continues to rise it should shoot up for a nice short term gain!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
story of my life - missed the bounce by 2 cents, ah well. will leave the buy order out there, you never know. may have yet another afternoon dip.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
hey bucks - what do you think of your buckeyes giving the 15 this weekend, and getting 1 vs. texas the following weekend? am tempted to give the 15 even with zwick starting, what do you think?
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Offense is suppose to be better and deffense should be strong like always. Should win by 15 easy.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i tend to agree, i like OSU 27-10 or so in this one.
you heading up to ann arbor for "the game" this year, bucks?! if so, lemme know - you can drop by the tailgate and we can share a beer or 6 beforehand. did all my tailgating "beta testing" this past weekend - tested out the porta-satellite dish and tv to make sure they still worked, tried out some new recipes on my new tailgating grill, you name it. ready for the season to finally start this weekend!
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
I do understand about the "suggestion stress" my dear Blue. There are times I have to take a break from here, from stock tips, because I worry too much about causing loss of money for others.
Suppose I would not make a good pump and dump scam artist; my ethics are in the way.
However, my friends are pleased about some of my picks, like NWD, HOM and PDGE. Problem is some of them become impatient, begin to worry, usually sell then regret selling.
That causes me anxiety as well.
I am avoiding public stock tips for a period, save for private tips to a few close friends who know I am doing my darn best.
Bingo posted a tip on an oil and gas stock. I am off to look at that one. His tips are usually pretty good.
Someone asked, PDGE, I suspect it will continue moving up, slowly. I am still holding and hoping for a 1.80 to 2.00 range. Bottom support appears to forming around 1.55 per share, today.
My opinion is some market manipulation is taking place today to suppress prices to load up and sell later on. Blue is correct on the bulk of trades being at higher prices which means a lot of people are not inclined to sell at lower prices. I see a lot of upward pressure building for PDGE stock.
Volume is very significant for PDGE indicating a lot of interest.
I could be wrong, don't forget that.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Quite a dip in prices today. Back up to opening price now. Glad I rode this one out. Looks like major hands are getting in on the plays which suggests more upward movement over this week and next week. Trades are good size; no piggy bank investors playing.
I'm going to ride this bronc for a bit; not ready to let go and I have lots of butt cushion.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Yes, yes, I confess. I have a big butt.
In this case, butt cushion is the profit margin set by buy-in price and perceived bottom support.
Readers will benefit by learning how to calculate risk-to-benefit ratio. Risk for my position is per share price falling back to bottom support, which appears to be 1.55 per share. Benefit is a gain upwards to 1.80 per share.
At bottom support (stop loss point) I have an acceptable profit margin, but could gain more by taking a risk on continued upward movement.
High today is 1.75 per and usually the second upward swing exceeds the first upward swing, although a second swing takes place more slowly and exhibits periodic down dips in price.
Indicators are massive volume for PDGE, lots of interest, most volume above 1.60 per share, good financial news, clear profit to come.
Those suggest the potential for risk are lower than the potential for benefit. Otherwords, there is a greater chance for better profit than a chance for loss of current profit.
Butt Cushion.
Be careful to not confuse greed with Butt Cushion.
Greed will bite your butt, consistently. Get out when the gettin' is good; an acceptable profit.
In my case, Greed will have to a take a big bite!
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Looks close will be opening price, 1.60 per. Gains today appear to have strength and will stick for a period of time; upward pressure.
Tomorrow, a very good indicator will be an opening price in the range, 1.62 to 1.64 per. If so, that should set the stage for slow upward movement for PDGE stock.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
To avoid confusion, PDGE opened at 1.45 per but instantly jumped to 1.60 per share. I consider a price of 1.60 per to be the true open price and does support a notion of bottom support being around 1.55 per share.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i hate to admit it because i always enjoy and read your stock suggestions emails, but - i can see your points. it's also a little trickier for you than me: you have a strong following here, and many may well buy based on your arguments.
arguing the opposite way here, though:
* it's always been clear in your posts that you are only presenting your *opinions*, and that they could well be wrong. there's no possible way even *you* could be right all the time in the market, over time you will end up making a few picks that go down, it's inevitable. i'm sure people understand this
* you have always been a strong proponent of: research, research, research. people should never buy anything based purely on a tip they read on a message board - that's being lazy and one would deserve to get burned always doing that.
* people have to factor in your input with research and reasoning of their own, in deciding buy and sell choices. you and i historically have agreed on many a thing, and independently come up with very similar watch lists of stocks. but still - even you and i would disagree on several stocks, which is of course as it should be, for 2 pretty strongly opinionated people who are quite capable of doing their own research. if you look at the CLSI thread, you'll see that i'm less bullish on it than you, though i still like it enough to own some. and similarly, i'm sure you have looked at some of the stocks i've brought up here like maybe GFCI and thought "what the heck is blue *thinking*?!?!".
* you've often tended towards the "Pro/Con" discussions of stocks of interest, presenting both sides. clearly i am a huge proponent of this method: i always use it when presenting stocks to my dad and brother, and a few here as done in this format as well - ie GFCI.
as long as you keep presenting things as "this is my opinion of xxx or yyy stock", honestly i think you should keep posting stock ideas here. we're all adults, everyone can make up their own choices of what to buy or not buy.
also, for example - i'd say that you, me, and bingo (as well as others of course like keithsan, glass, etc) have often have valuable discussions about various stocks, often helping each other to crystallize our own thoughts and ideas on what are and aren't good buying choices. even if we don't always agree, i consider say yours and bingo's etc thoughts as a valuable "check" on my own research and thoughts. all offering our own inputs, we're able to perhaps catch things that others have missed.
quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: I am avoiding public stock tips for a period, save for private tips to a few close friends who know I am doing my darn best.
Looks like they used the cash from the private placement to buy the company. Looks like a great acquisition to me.
$5.25 MILLION in Cash
a promissory note for $750,000 at an interest of 6% due one-year from the closing
Total shares added under 700,000
The Company is required to pay Flagship 35% of the net earnings of the former Flagship operation in excess of $500,000. (18 months)
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
nice catch, bucks! still reading, but - looks good so far
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
pretty interesting, looks like perhaps on the order of $8M bucks paid for flagship, all told. honestly, i have to admit i thought it might be on the order of several million shares added, the fact that it was surpringly few makes me happy.
so is kind of interesting, trying to analyze. the full filing is here btw:
O/S goes from about 14M to about 15M, a surprisingly small bump up. so current market cap around $24M. PDGE made about $2.3M in profit on about $60M in revs last year, without flagship.
let's conservatively say flagship adds $25M revs and $3M profit a year, for this year (PR claims they are at $2.3M profit on $18M revs for the first 7 months of this year). so we're looking at perhaps on the order of $4M profit for the year, taking out flagship's 35% cut, on revs of about $90M. with a current backlog of $40M. so that would imply a P/S of about .3, and a P/E in the neighborhood of about 6-ish. and this assumes that things keep going along "as they have been", ie - no big work coming in from say katrina or other hurricanes. based on these admittedly rough numbers, PDGE still seems pretty cheap to me. a PE of 6-ish range sure seems small, especially for a company with the revenue growth of PDGE.
it is interesting: $8M paid for a company earning let's say $3M+ a year. in theory, it should have "paid for itself" in let's say 3 years, and the rest is gravy. on the surface, sure seems like a good deal. which kind of brings up the point - i wonder why flagship went for this deal?
my only other buyout experience lately is - RIMS, and there i was on the other end of the bargain. kind of amazing - RIMS was one of my favorite stocks: fantastic balance sheet, trading at about 4x earnings, business good. so - they went up and sold, folded up shop - basically looks to be liquidating themselves at about .70 a share, when the stock was at .85 and in my mind was worth at least $1. weird, really pulled the rug out from under me and a lot of other shareholders. i guess that's neither here nor there, though.
in any event, i have to say - this looks like a good deal to me. purl, bucks, anyone else - any insights? i admit that i'm by nature skeptical and sometimes pessimisitic when it comes to the market, so i'd still like to know why flagship sold themselves for what seems on the surface to be pretty cheap.
but - at this point, i have to say that i'm left with a positive impression of the whole flagship deal. no idea how the market will react, probably not many people will even bother to read the terms of the agreement. in any event though, i like it - am going to keep holding.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
interesting .pdf blurb on PDGE's activities after the 2004 florida hurricanes:
mention of sending 600 employees to work in 18 florida counties over the 7 week stretch after the hurricanes in florida last year.
hard to believe that PDGE and flagship won't be involved in the Katrina cleanup.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Too early in this event for any consideration of repair and rebuild. Major thrust for the next few weeks will simply be to save lives and provide food and housing.
This is a disaster which will require years for recovery. Many companies will be busy for a very long time.
I am certain a "hurricane bandwagon" is in the making for many stocks. Remember the "Mad Cow" bandwagon? We should see the same for construction and repair companies known to do business in the disaster area.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue, nice dip on ALMI. Have a look. I have buy orders in and hoping.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Volume is less today. Started off strong but when the volume slow downed the MM's drop it fast.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
agree bucks - you could tell the run wouldn't sustain at the open because the volume just wasn't there. i sold a chunk and then rebought it half an hour later.
sadly i wasn't as lucky with the ALMI dip - i was at .96 but missed it, even though it went there briefly - guess i picked the wrong block size, drats. you can be sure though purl, is on my watch list and am looking to add.
is funny, back to PDGE for a minute. i bet those who bought at the open were those who actually bothered to read the terms of the flagship agreement, and realized it was a good deal. and in the short term they were somewhat punished for their diligence - 95+% of PDGE holders didn't even bother i bet, and really only go on "if it looks hot". in the short term punished perhaps, but - i still think in the long run a little DD goes a long way and will eventualy be rewarded more often than not over time. at least, i like to think so.
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
I have ALMI orders in at .96 to .98 and just missed that short dip, like you. Day isn't over!
PDGE, still showing good upward pressure. Gonna sit on it for a bit longer.
Having too much fun today, actually a day off from hard physical labor around here. I am using an "ISP upgrade & service" as an excuse to avoid mixing concrete for my slave driver old man.
Picture this, I am sitting here with four computers in front of me. Cannot decide with which one to play! Have an XP machine playing my cello music and displaying my stock market live feed. It is a dual processor machine. Typing to you on this one, serial port programming a firmware firewall on another, and messing with spam heads on another which is our email / dns server.
Having fun with an internet stalker. He has been stalking me since 1995. Keeps trying to hack our servers, I keep playing tricks on him, which is easy to do; he is a dumb F-word. Wrote a program which has kept him busy for the past four days searching for Chinese proxies to use for access.
"Paint It Black" by stones is playing. You should hear me play rock n roll on my cello!
Well, hmm, seems I am rambling.
Forget HOM Watch NWD Buy ALMI Hold PDGE Kick CLSI Hold IESV
Blue, watch LQMT for a few weeks. Use to be a really hot stock (see old articles) but is in trouble this year. However, LQMT is volatile and displays ten to twenty cent swings. Get in and get out; not a hold stock.
RNDC should be on your watch list as well.
CNR, if it hits 1.10 to 1.20 per, buy a bunch, wait three months and sell at 1.50 per. CNR makes that swing once a quarter.
Oh gosh, nothing more to write and I have to pick a computer with which to play.
Gotta look busy, I hear that concrete mixer outside going round and round and round...
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
My theme song is playing! My theme song is playing!
"Fat Bottom Girls" by Queen
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Wow look at the spread between the Bid and Ask
Posted by man4apenny on :
purl gurl mentioning repair companies: Check pbls up over 130% last 2 days. Ive been accumulating over last month with its book value of nearl 10cents and acquistions being made recently this "intrigued" me and bought on the strong hunch it would move much higher once it gets listed on otc board sometime next year. It sits right near I-10 on "high" ground so they will be in the thick of things whenever they get around to fixing the interstate.
Posted by <man4apenny> on :
purl gurl mentioning repair companies: Check pbls up over 130% last 2 days. Ive been accumulating over last month with its book value of nearl 10cents and acquistions being made recently this "intrigued" me and bought on the strong hunch it would move much higher once it gets listed on otc board sometime next year. It sits right near I-10 on "high" ground so they will be in the thick of things whenever they get around to fixing the interstate.
Posted by <man4apenny> on :
purl gurl mentioning repair companies: Check pbls up over 130% last 2 days. Ive been accumulating over last month with its book value of nearl 10cents and acquistions being made recently this "intrigued" me and bought on the strong hunch it would move much higher once it gets listed on otc board sometime next year. It sits right near I-10 on "high" ground so they will be in the thick of things whenever they get around to fixing the interstate.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
spread is surprisingly wide, you're right bucks. if it keeps up like that, volume will be tough to sustain. too early to tell though.
purl, CNR - i agree, somehow i always seem to miss it by 2 cents though. a reliable swinger, much like HOM used to be before takeoff. haven't looked at RNDC for a year, will look into them and LQMT again.
is kind of funny, was a pretty positive PR after the bell for PDGE in terms of the acquisition terms, but - PDGE was down on the day, nobody cared. i liked ETLT's PR today as well despite it's lousy grammer and english, but - also down. i also thought ROK.V released a nice PR after the bell yesterday, but - also down.
is funny, i read all 3 of those PR's and thought "that looks pretty good, have been waiting for awhile to hear about xxx or yyy, and - sounds good to me". but - all 3 stocks *dropped* on the PR's. sometimes i wonder if i'm reading different PR's than all the other stockholders, heh! ah well.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
"Local companies already are helping. Churchill-based PDG Environmental Inc., an environmental remediation company, and Church Restoration Group, in the North Side, moved into the Gulf Coast when the storm hit south Florida, said Shawn Regan, director of business development for PDG.
About 50 PDG employees are assembling water pumping equipment in Gulf Shores, Ala., before spreading out to Jackson, Miss., and Mobile, Ala."
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
your buckeyes won me some beer money saturday, osubucks! covered the spread. i'm not touching tex+1@osu next weekend though - is going to be one wild game and i have no idea who will win. am torn over whether to put $ down on ND next weekend, probably i will just be the over because i'm not convinced UM can stop ND's O, or that ND can stop UM's O. both UM/ND and OSU/TEX should be great games next weekend! we shall see how they play out, i'm very nervous about the UM game after watching how easily ND steamrolled Pitt on saturday
quote:Originally posted by osubucks30: Offense is suppose to be better and deffense should be strong like always. Should win by 15 easy.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
ND looked good. OSU/TEX should be a good game. The whole key to the Bucks winning is to stop Vince Young! Michigan should handle ND but Michigan D has some question marks. (I always want Michigan to win when they are not playing OSU. One year I would like to see both teams undefeated going into THE GAME!)
Posted by BuyTex on :
what was the spread on TCU v OU? anybody follow that one?
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
osu/tex and um/nd are the best 2 games next wkend, both should be a lot of fun. michigan D has some *major* question marks this year, can't believe carr hasn't fired jim herrmann yet. they will be playing a lot of of 38-34 type shootouts this year.
both teams going into THE game undefeated would be amazing - came mighty close in '97. this year will be my 10th straight going to the um/osu game in ann arbor, 3 generations go to every game now that my son is old enough to live and breathe UM football. all i can say is that the UM secondary had better work out their issues before ginn and holmes come to town!
i believe the TCU/OU spread was 17.5, ouch!
btw, i find it amusing, people's perceptions of sports betting on one hand, and the market on the other. betting on sports is universally frowned upon, "investing" in the market is universally considered a wise and responsible thing to do. if you ask me - they're both gambling, pure and simple. in either case, you are betting that your own knowledge, insight, and predictive ability as it relates to a stock or a game, is more valid and better than the "general consensus" opinion. in my mind, there's no fundemental difference whatsoever between betting on sports and playing the market.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PDGE 1.79
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
I am selling off small lots, 500 shares, at 1.80 to 1.82 per. My hunch is PDGE will stabilize at these prices for a good period of time.
Next dip, I plan to buy in again, perhaps around 1.50 to 1.60 per depending on PDGE performance over the next few weeks.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i sold a little also but have decided to mostly hold a good chunk of PDGE long. i may regret it as i expect it'll have some ups and downs, but my decision was based on several main reasons:
* i'm tired of selling stocks too early, have made a career out of it lately!
* honestly i think they're very well positioned to do quite well over the next 3-5 years. not only hurricane cleanup work, but i'm still "bullish on mold".
* they still don't strike me as overvalued, based on their profitability lately
* have read the terms of the flagship deal a few times over, and i think odds are that they got a very good deal on it and that flagship will add nicely to their bottom line. osubucks and i discussed this awhile up in this thread.
anyway, have swung-trade a bit and lightened up a bit, and may jump on some swings in the future as well. but, i like this one long. it's all in my kids' college funds which i won't need for years, so i'm going to hold a chunk long and see where it stands a few years out, we'll see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
2 new offices, plus talk of katrina work
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
holding up nicely here - dipped to 1.70 yesterday but support held nicely, now back in the low 1.80's again. volume has definitely tailed off a bit, but - pps is holding up OK.
honestly i'd be happy to just have PDGE hold 1.70-1.75 awhile and start to establish that as a new base of support for potential future moves up. too early to tell if that'll happen, but - a nice initial indicator that it's held gains at least so far.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
bounced up 4x against 1.91 resistance and couldn't break it, but - still, a very nice close for PDGE - all-time high close today of 1.90.
ok, off to pack all of the tailgating coolers for tomorrow's UM/ND game, feeding 12 - yikes! osubucks, if you're reading this - good luck vs texas tomorrow! i put $20 on your buckeyes, i think they win a squeaker at home
Posted by osubucks30 on :
I will watch the UM/ND game. Hopefully Michigan's defense will step up!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
yup, UM's D has clearly been struggling, just not the personnel in the secondary in particular that they usually have.
amusingly, i have about 1100 posts here at allstocks, and about 1100 posts as "spongebob_bluepants" over at the UM rivals message bord. one of these days i am going to post about ALMI and PDGE over at rivals and everyone will scratch their head and say... "huh"? i wonder if i hold some kind of dubious record for breaking the 1,000 post mark at both a college football and a stock website, heh.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
not a good day for either of us in football, bucks, ouch!
is really going to be an interesting Big10 race this year, a few comments on it from my "other" self, heh:
I wish I din't sell early. i'm going to be watching now but I dont think i'll get in I've tried chasing stocks that I got out of early before but I got burnt so i'll just watch.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
i don't blame you vg, i'm not a "chaser" either. hard to say with PDGE what will happen, was some nice buying towards the end of the day pushing it to a 2.06 close but hard to say if it'll last. investors can be fickle and get bored easily and want to move on to something else, has been on a great run and may very well have some dips.
i do like the buying pressure though for right now, volume and interest is still there and i think it's still entering the radar of new investors who never heard of PDGE before.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
wow, it's astounding and sad just how many mold problems there are going to be in the wake of katrina. if you plug mold and katrina into google, you get about half a million links returned, just a few samples:
i like that PDGE held $2 today. need to protect gains, but - i want to give this one some room to hopefully run. am going to set a trailing stop at 1.88 and hope it never hits it.
Posted by vg on :
Good luck blue at this time i'm just watching u. I'm short of funds or else i'd had got some more ALMI at 0.96, 0.97 today. but my funds hadn't settle so will have to wait a little and watch u play more PDGE Good luck
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PDGE Q results just out, earned .03 on the Q. still reading, but - about what i was expecting. they had to dilute a bit to buy flagship, so the downside is there but not the upside of all the additional flagship profits yet. this Q wasn't bad, and i expect upcoming Q's to be increasingly better.
from the PR:
John Regan, Chairman and CEO of PDG Environmental, commented, "Growth in revenues and, more importantly, earnings continued in the second quarter thanks to solid organic growth and focusing on improving operating efficiencies. The recently announced acquisition of Flagship Services Group will start to enhance our revenues and earnings, and with the tremendous demand for our combined services as a result of Hurricane Katrina, we are anticipating continued growth in revenues and earnings in the second six months."
anyway, still reading. no idea how the market will take it, we'll see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
well, i guess the market didn't like the Q, ah well. got stopped out at 1.88. irks me to be out, but - there it is.
weird thing to me is: even if you annualized out the .03 profit this Q, that comes out to a PE of about 16, not exactly huge. and that of course discounts the fact that this Q suffers from the payment and dilution for flagship, from which they have yet to reap the benefits. not to mention factoring in the fact that flagship has higher margins than PDG, and the added work due to katrina and other hurricanes.
anyway, looking for reentry on dips, have a buy order out at 1.78 now.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
weird day: a lot ran off at the .52 ask at the open, then suddenly the rug got pulled out and almost instantly dropped to .45x.50, now slowly working it's way back to .52x.53
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
oops - my apologies - that should have gone under the ETLT thread!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
nice little late-day bounce. ended up changing my mind and buying a little back at 1.88, exact same price i sold it for this morning, heh.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
That is a very bullish sign.
IMO anything below $2 is a great price. With 15 MILLION shares the company is valued at $30 Million. After buying Flagship revenues will be $70-$80 Million a year so IMO it is very cheap considering the recent quarter did not include Flagship. Also they said that before Katrina hit so the second half of this year should be stronger!!
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Also Ophelia should help too. With all these tropical systems this is a stock to be in IMO.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
yeah i have to say, i like the long-term outlook for PDGE - they should be quite busy. regan's statement in the PR today was a pretty good hint, he's not prone to overstatement.
kind of amusing, buying PDGE at the exact same price i sold at just a few hours earlier, heh. eh what can i say, i mess up all the time in the market! should have gone with my initial instinct that the report today was a good one and that business was going to be good, just experimenting with trailing stops and trying to protect profits.
is funny, you could say a lot of bad things about me based on my history of allstocks posts, perhaps starting that i'm a blabbering purl-wannabe who likes boring stocks and always sells too early. but - at least you can't ever say that (a) i'm a pumper or (b) i don't admit my mistakes, and they are frequent. i always try to be as open and honest as possible of my views on pros and cons with certain stocks (not that many read my blabbering anyway) and try to always see both sides, and often openly criticize my own holdings. also, i mention my mistakes almost daily here - made a lot in the last 24 hrs alone: sold PDGE and then rebought at the same price, sold a chunk of ETLT too early yesterday, didn't sell GFCI at the spike at the open today and rebuy for 15% cheaper a few hours later, i didn't sell GMAI at 15 yesterday, plus probably a few others i'm forgetting. d'oh!
actually, it'd be refreshing for me if more people here shared their mistakes, somehow the unregistered pumpers are always claiming that they bought at the bottom and sold at the top, which i highly doubt the veracity of much of the time.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Patience will pay off IMO!
This is reminding me of HOM (but this one has less shares). HOM acquired a company that added to earnings. The stock of HOM fell when they reported earnings a month later. Then the next quarter that included the acquisition the stock soared!!
I think PDGE will have a similar run. I'm not making the same mistake I have been by selling to early or panicing when the price falls!! For the next couple of months this will be a good buy. I will keep adding at these prices. With all of the clean up due to the Hurricane it is EVEN MORE ATTRACTIVE!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
yesterday's dip back to the low 1.80's was disappointing, but - yeah i agree bucks, am going to hold my small portion and be looking to add on dips. they're trading at a trailing PE of about 10 now, compared to a trailing PE for HOM of about 28 now, so they hardly strike me as undervalued. they had a big backlog already even before any hurricanes this season, and of course you have to add in the flagship revenues. as you and i discussed awhile ago, it still seems to me like they got a good deal on flagship. all in all weighing the pros and cons, i sure see a lot more pros than cons in holding PDGE, we'll see how it goes. yesterday was disappointing for PDGE and actually several of my holdings, but - am not selling anything at this point, as long as i still like the companies.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
2.15
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Well Hurricane Rita will create even more work for this company. Nice move today on great volume! 50 day average volume is 164,000 today over 460,00!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
the original PR about flagship mentioned that they were based in arlington, texas:
"PITTSBURGH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 29, 2005--PDG Environmental, Inc. (OTC BB: PDGE - News) announced today that it has acquired the assets and operations of Flagship Services Group, a recognized leader in both large and specialty loss repair and reconstruction. Flagship's expertise includes the repair and reconstruction of damage caused by wind storms, fires, and floods as well as mold remediation. For additional information on the company, please visit www.flagship-services.com. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed. For the year ended 12/31/04, Flagship had unaudited revenues of $19.4 million and adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.2 million. For the 7 months ended July 31, 2005, unaudited revenues were $17.8 million with a pre-tax profit of $2.3 million. Current backlog for Flagship is in excess of $5.5 million, creating a combined backlog in excess of $40 million."
Rita is of course headed towards Texas, at least at the moment.
"Flagship's expertise includes the repair and reconstruction of damage caused by wind storms, fires, and floods as well as mold remediation."
as of 8/29 PDGE/flagship had a $40M backlog, certainly seems possible that it could well be much larger than that in the future.
i'm going to keep holding.
Posted by vg on :
Blue or anyone else PM me if you want me to ask some questions or find out anything about flagship, I just saw the flagship building when I was coming back from a friends place. It's pretty close to where I stay. If anyone around the D/FW area want to see them, they are on I-20 and Collins. I had passed by there about 3 months ago, they were just building the warehouse.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
vg - interesting, sure: gimme all you got. how big does it look/how many people would you guess work there? configuration - is there just one building, you mentioned a warehouse, is that an additional building i take it? any other impressions?
as a side note, anyone ever play with "google earth"? is an interesting little tool - you plug an address into it, and it zooms in to give you a satellite view. i've plugged a few company addresses into it, just to get a sense of the location and building size. but just plain fun to play with anyway. the little app can be downloaded at earth.google.com.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
volume continues to increase: +.16 to 2.27 on 540K shares traded so far
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Flagship is based in Texas. With this new hurricane they should get alot more business.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
2.34!
Posted by osubucks30 on :
WOW what a day for this stock.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
the wolverine agrees with the buckeye, quite a day! almost 1M shares traded.
too bad there's not more Big 10 football fans here, the humor of osubucks and blue having a running discussion appears to be lost on most folks.
so, the question now - how long to hold? was pondering today, obviously. in contemplating, am going back to what i posted several days ago, my reasons for holding:
* i'm tired of selling stocks too early, have made a career out of it lately!
* honestly i think they're very well positioned to do quite well over the next 3-5 years. not only hurricane cleanup work, but i'm still "bullish on mold".
* they still don't strike me as overvalued, based on their profitability lately
* have read the terms of the flagship deal a few times over, and i think odds are that they got a very good deal on it and that flagship will add nicely to their bottom line. osubucks and i discussed this awhile up in this thread.
as wary as i am of how stocks often have a pullback after runs, i still feel pretty good about each of these 4 "reasons to hold PDGE". and of course you could add a few more: flagship should be well positioned to add to their big backlog, and sure looked bullish today.
am going to keep holding, even though i may get burned or at least have to suffer through some pullbacks.
reason #4 in particular, i think is somewhat "undiscovered" by people, i doubt many people read and tried to understand the terms of the flagship deal and whether or not PDGE got a good deal on them. i still think they got a helluva deal.
may be some pullbacks along the way, but- i really think that very conservatively speaking, PDGE is good to earn at least .20-.25 over the next 4 quarters, potentially quite a bit more. by that measuring stick, they still don't seem overvalued to me. i think PDGE can earn as much as HOM over the next year, and HOM is trading over $5 at the moment.
we'll see.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
I was thinking the exact same thing. $5 a share is not out of the question. At $5 with around 15 million shares puts the company worth at $75 Million which is not much considering the company should have revenues over $100 Million over the next year (They say between 70-80 Million but that was before Katrina)!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
HOM and PDGE have similar earnings the last 6 months. HOM earned .04 2 Q's ago and then .04 last Q, for .08 total. PDGE earned .05 and then .03, also for .08 total.
HOM has about 24M shares O/S for a market cap of about 127M, PDGE has about 14M shares O/S for a market cap of about 34M.
of course these are just *rough* numbers and comparisons, there are a *lot* of different factors like balance sheets etc that come into play in trying to place relative values on each.
also of course, we're talking trailing P/E's, the forward P/E can only be projected. as you pointed out before though bucks - both have made acquisitions that should add to future earnings. i think it's "fair" to at least compare the companies on a rough basis, they are in relatively similar industries even. and my bet is that the forward earnings per share of HOM and PDGE for 2006 might be relatively close to .25-range a share for each.
i like both companies, but - of the two, PDGE appears the more undervalued to me.
i'm not sure about $5, but - certainly i think PDGE is at least capable of topping $4 over the next one year, especially now that they have added flagship to the fold. we'll see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
really now that i ponder on it more, that is a pretty wide disparity. basically HOM is valued by the market to be worth 4 times the amount PDGE is worth.
that is out of whack.
i like HOM, but - i liked it a lot more back when Purl and i were talking about it at 1.50-2, than i do now over 5. i would have a hard time justifying that HOM is worth 4x what PDGE is worth. HOM to me is fairly valued now, while PDGE still strikes me as undervalued.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
oops, i have to apologize. i rarely make mistakes in my numbers when posting here, but - i did this time. i was mixing up my columns, it was actually *2* Q's ago that PDGE made .05 for the Q. they made about .055 as near as i can tell for the last 6 months, by my calculations.
so that makes a little more sense, a little less out of whack now.
based on that, i somewhat retract my previous statement: i believe HOM should be worth more than PDGE. but - not 4x as much, even twice as much would be a serious stretch.
however, my apologies for mixing up the 2 PDGE quarterly results.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
finally broke that 1M share volume mark, up 12% today for a 2.69 close.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
ugh, pullback. have to read the s-2, obviously the market didn't like it though.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
With the private placement I should of known this was coming. Now the fully dilutive shares are 31 MILLION!
Posted by osubucks30 on :
I think it is fairly valued now. Someone was buying at $2.2 though. It tested that many times but did not break it. Hopefully this won't fall below $2 Monday.
I don't know why but American Bulls issued a Buy-IF for this one after todays trading!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
the PP was necessary to raise funds to buy flagship, and i still think that based on their numbers that PDG got a great deal on flagship.
but there appears to be more here than just the flagship acquisition. for the moment i am withholding judgement though until i can read the entire S-2 and sort it all out. will post on in the future after i've read the whole thing and tried to figure it all out.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
american bulls isn't worth much imho. they fudge their numbers. they issue say a "buy-if" and then if the stock runs they bank it as profits as if you had bought at the previous closing price. they were slightly more interesting when they just posted a "buy" or "sell" and didn't fudge their numbers as much with the whole "if" crutch.
i admit that i'm a fundamentals and not a technicals guy though, so maybe the whole candlestick deal is just not my thing
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
sometimes it is a pain in the ass and frustrating to be blue_in_MI. trying to sort out all of this S-2 for the last hour, have about 11 browser windows open and making notes trying to correlate all of these different warrants etc back to previous PR's and track them all.
i've read hundreds and hundreds of SEC documents in their entirety over the last few years, but - i admit this is one of the most complicated transaction streams that i ever tried to figure out. shares and warrants broken down into 9 different segments, with a few of them being these series C preferred.
and in the end, sometimes i wonder if it's even worth it; 99% of PDGE holders won't even bother to read the whole thing so in the end i'm simply reliant on what the crowd will do to determine PDGE's future pps movements.
sometimes in periods of frustration like this i wonder if i need an entire paradigm shift of the way i look at the market. as the 2-3 people who have read my posts for awhile here know, i always try to rely on my own research and buy companies that *i* like and think will do well.
maybe that's wrong though, maybe i instead need to base my research on "what stock could i buy (regardless of any research or SEC filings or own thoughts on how *i* think it will do in the future) is likely to go up based on an uninformed investing crowd becoming aware of it and thus having it build momentum and upward buying pressure for a quick play?".
eh i guess that's mostly just 5am frustration talking, but - still, sometimes i have to stop and wonder about things, heh.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
eh maybe i am just overcomplicating things.
maybe i should just forget reading this S-2, and as you did osubucks, just assume the worst case and that the new O/S is about 30M. note that i am not sure that this is not technically true - is a complicated mix of warrants and shares. but, being a pessimist and skeptical by nature anyway: will just assume about 30M shares from now on.
so, in trying to shed all of the complexities, what does the question become?
in simplest terms, i guess one way to look at it is: can PDGE earn enough after-tax profit in the upcoming 4 Q's to achieve a P/E under about 15? so in rough numbers, can they achieve about 15 cents a share profit next year, based on 30M O/S, or: can they earn $4.5M profit over the next 4 Q's?
is a little complicated to look at past earnings and try to sort this out. for one: tax issues, clearly PDGE has lost it's tax carryforward and thus some of their oct-31-04 Q where they booked $1M profit has to be taken with a grain of salt: that was still in the carryfoward-assisted period.
PDGE, sans flagship, earned $700K taxed profit over the last 2 Q's. my guess is that due to the hurricanes, it will be more than that over the next 4 Q's. obviously, they are quite busy now. so, still being conservative though: i am going to say that they stand a good chance to bump up their profits from 350k a Q to 500K, for $2M guesstimate profit over the next 4 Q's.
then, add in flagship. all we have to go on for flagship, is this one short paragraph:
"For the year ended 12/31/04, Flagship had unaudited revenues of $19.4 million and adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.2 million. For the 7 months ended July 31, 2005, unaudited revenues were $17.8 million with a pre-tax profit of $2.3 million. Current backlog for Flagship is in excess of $5.5 million, creating a combined backlog in excess of $40 million."
so let's say in rough terms: $2M profit over the last 6 months for flagship, their margins are clearly better than PDG's. so one could estimate perhaps $4M over a whole year. perhaps optimistic, but - really it's hard to believe that flagship would not be ridiculously busy with rita business also, with offices in arlington and houston.
of course, there are 2 adjustments necessary to that $4M profit guess number: (a) tax, and (b) flagship still gets a cut of the profits for the next 18 months, despite the acquisition.
direct from the 8K:
" The transaction also includes additional consideration in the form of an earn-out arrangement over the first eighteen-month period commencing on the closing date, pursuant to which the Company is required to pay Flagship 35% of the net earnings of the former Flagship operation in excess of $500,000."
so let's do the numbers, assuming our $4M profit: basically it chops off .35*(4M-500k), or about $1M of profit off. so let's call the new "effected" guesstimate profit $3M, and we'll chop 500k of that for taxes. so let's say, ballpark and conservative: should be on the order of $2.5M profit contributed by flagship over the next 4 Q's.
so adding together: that leaves us with conservative guesses for the next 4 Q's of :$2M profit for PDGE, along with another $2.5M contributed by flagship; for $4.5M total guess profit for the next 4 Q's.
which happens to be exactly the original number i first bandied about in this post, in terms of the: "can they achieve an estimated forward P/E of about 15 over the next 4 Q's?" question.
so, i guess: that's my conservative guess in terms of next 4-month prospects for PDGE, that shey should earn about $4.5M.
note though that there are several other factors to consider, both Pro and Con, such as:
PRO:
* katrina/rita factor. i've been conservative in my estimates, but by all accounts - indications are that flagship and PDG will have a ton of work due to hurricanes this year, probably significantly more than last year.
from the 9/14 PR, Regan stated:
"Growth in revenues and, more importantly, earnings continued in the second quarter thanks to solid organic growth and focusing on improving operating efficiencies. The recently announced acquisition of Flagship Services Group will start to enhance our revenues and earnings, and with the tremendous demand for our combined services as a result of Hurricane Katrina, we are anticipating continued growth in revenues and earnings in the second six months."
* after the next 6 Q's pass, PDGE no longer has to give flagship their 35% cut of the profits, all of the profits will then go to PDGE's bottom line
* any potential large FEMA-type contract that could pop up for PDGE could suddenly propel them to a whole new ballpark
CON:
* still sorting out the S-2, but i admit that i still feel a little "sucker-punched" by yesterday's filing. maybe it was a failure on my own part in terms of not being diligent enough in all of my research, though clearly i have been trying to keep up with it. maybe not. i dunno. a lot of the stuff in the S-2 was clearly simply due to flagship and fully expected. am still trying to sort out the "surprise factor" though. in any case, no guarantee that there won't be more dilution over the next year.
* PDG of course has to make sure to earn *margin* on any work they get, as flagship has appears to have done. PDG appears as if they could learn a lesson or two from flagship in that regard.
* there is no way to tell what all of these holders like the "tailwind fund" etc will do with their shares. will they sell them and thus create downward pressure on the PPS, or are they long-term investors who will hold for years? dunno, probably some of each.
based on this, i guess it's up to everyone to draw their own conclusions and weigh pros against cons.
i admit that PDGE deserved to be knocked down a bit yesterday. was previously way undervalued, and perhaps got a big overvalued in the momo run.
but - i still think PDG, based on 2.22 close, has an excellent chance to achieve enough profit to drive their P/E down to 15 range. and could well possibly be 10-range if katrina/rita work pans out well for them. while the scope of yesterday's S-2 was disappointing, i don't see any reason to hit the panic button. they still strike me as undervalued by a bit, and will continue to hold some long.
i guess purl has stepped out for awhile, but i don't suppose anyone else has any other thoughts or analysis or corrections to add?
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
heckuva opening weekend for the big 10, eh bucks? some huge games.
really an interesting one in osu vs iowa. iowa plays much better at home, but - they're dangerous, i think a good shot at slowing down osu's running game. really is up to troy smith, he'll have to have a good game to back up the D for a win; we'll see. doubt iowa will get much of a running game going either, it will be up to tate to make big plays. may come down to turnovers and mistakes, we'll see.
pur/min really an interesting one too. pur's DL vs minny's great running game. probably purdue's toughest game all season, am rooting for minny. also of course UM/UW, am very nervous about that game.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Ohio State destroyed Iowa today. I guess Iowa is not that good.
Michigan and Michigan St will be a great game next weekend. The Buckeyes have the week off so I will probably watch. Michigan St can sure put up the points so I hope the Wolverines D is ready!
Posted by osubucks30 on :
I am glad that Purdue lost. Just doesn't seem right that they could win the Big Ten without playing Ohio State or Michigan!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
eh is going to be a long season in ann arbor, bucks. turns out blue_in_MI was an apt handle for me to pick, 3 different connotations: blue as in maize and blue, blue as in my political leanings, and at least this year: blue over my collapsing football team, heh. michigan football will be back, but - clearly it's going to be a long year and this isn't a vintage UM team. quite an interesting 2-game stretch for MSU: really they should handle UM easily next weekend, but then MSU at OSU the following week could well decide the big 10 title
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
rollercoaster day: 1.90 to 2.30 trading range. took half off the table at 2.28 and advised family to do the same, risks at least somewhat elevated at least in my mind due to the S-2 being so large.
but - still holding the other half long based on my above thoughts, still like their chances to do well over the next 2-3 years.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
oops my mistake, make that 2.23 i sold a chunk, 2.28 was the price at the time of my last post and i mixed them up.
all in all, not too bad a day for PDGE. probably a lot of people didn't realize about the S-2 on friday and figured it was just a pullback after the runup; but then more people would have had a chance to learn of the S-2 over the weekend. so i find it encouraging that it was basically flat on the day and recovered from a 15% morning dump. my guess is will continue to show some volatility, but - generally consolidate around here for awhile. we'll see
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PR out this morning re: new contracts. still haven't hade time to read much -
contracts announced look pretty good, another $5M added onto the $40M backlog. am not too worried that PDGE will run short of work over the next few years.
apparently CNBC did a bit on mold tonight, but i did not catch it.
really the most interesting paragraph from today's PR was this one:
John Regan, Chairman and CEO, commented, "In addition to the above significant contract awards, PDGE continues to increase its hurricane response activity along the Gulf Coast. We currently have over 400 workers and supervisory personnel employed at a number of sites providing emergency response, demolition, drying and reconstruction. The $1.5 million contract awarded to Flagship was a result of damage from last year's hurricanes and is an indication of how long reconstruction due to hurricane devastation will continue."
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
not surprisingly, volume has slowed considerably and PDGE now looks to be in a consolidation phase, bouncing between 2.15-2.30 range. i suspect will stay in that range awhile, pending any news or other activity that would act as an impetus to move it up or down. never know though, the momo-crowd who bought in could get bored and sell and maybe drop it below 2, which would have me looking to add part of the chunk i sold back in. we'll see.
pretty interesting upcoming 2-game stretch for your buckeyes, eh osubucks? rightfully favored in each, but - both PSU and MSU are dangerous teams. i like their odds to take the big 10 should they win these next 2, but - there's always the scheduling issue too. wisconsin has an easy schedule the rest of the way; skipping both OSU and MSU; and getting iowa at home. alvarez in the past has proved a master of parlaying an easy schedule into a big10 title, could happen again this year if OSU stumbles. honestly i think the scheduling system is pathetic; right now the 2 teams you skip has as much to do with winning the big10 as how good of a team you have. starting the year after next, iowa skips both OSU and UM. what needs to happen is to drop one of the preseason cupcake games, and return to a 10-game big10 schedule (with the addition of one more allowable game next year). UM and OSU are both on record in favor of this plan. but - will never happen, too much $$ to be made by scheduling home dates with patsies.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
that didn't take long: dipping below 2 now. put a buy order out at 1.91, we'll see
Posted by vg on :
Blue, I put mine at 1.92 LOL. Just passed by our warehouse today and saw 4, 18 wheelers off-lading raw materials or other stuff like that on pallets. Didn't have much time to get in since I was on my way to class.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
The Big Ten needs to add a team so there will be 12 and make 2 divisions and play a Championship game. There should be one champion of the conference not two.
I figured this would happen. If the volume doesn't pick back up it will drop more. We will see tomorrow.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
gap-open lower this morning, added a bit at 1.87 at the open
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
wow, absolutely crushed today; just hit 1.52 - no new news or filing that i can see out today. just added another chunk back.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Did you see the OSU/Penn State game?
Man do they need an offense. Only give up 190 yards and still lose! They probably will lose to Michigan State because they have a high powered offense. Even if our D can hold them to 20 points we will lose because we can't score. Put OSU defense with almost any other offense and they would be undefeated. Although Ohio State has not had an offense since Tressel has been coach.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
yup, that was quite a game, i have to admit that i thought OSU would take them. certainly been a disappointing season for both of us, me more than you though - ugh.
can't believe PSU is a 3.5-pt *dog* this weekend vs a bad UM team, i bet on PSU right when the lines came out. have to admit, i bet on sparty also, taking the 7. imho sparty has one of the best offenses in the country, still have no idea how UM managed to beat them on the road.
re: PDGE, no idea what happened today: crashed to 1.52 early, bid moved up to 1.80 by close. just plain weird.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
nice close, back to 2.00; a day after panic-button pushers dumped it all the way to 1.52.
Posted by Wallace#1 on :
PDGE....a damn nice stock for a long term hold. Had it last year, sold and made money.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
unbeleivable day in the big10 and college football in general, eh bucks? what a weird game for your bucks: they didn't run a play in sparty territory until there were 5 min left in the game, but still won by 11. usc/n-dumb, man - epic. min/wisc, amazing ending. a ton of games went down to the wire yesterday.
have only missed a handful of UM games in 19 years and have a seen a lot, but - maybe the most amazing ending have ever seen yesterday. just pure joyous bedlam in the stadium afterward, have never hugged so many people that i never met in my life, and my voice is completely shot still today. what college football is all about, just the greatest sport on earth.
Posted by Wallace#1 on :
1 lousy second and PS got beaten.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
just took 2.16 on 1/3 of my PDGE, still holding the other 2/3 though.
no idea why so volatile: range the last week has been 1.52-2.19, with no news or other impetus to justify such bouncing around
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
pretty wide trading ranges for this one the last few days: low-1.80's to low-2's. keeping core 2/3, swing-trading the other 1/3. hoping for a dip back to 1.70's or so to add more as people get impatient waiting for PR's about cleanup activity, we'll see.
pretty tough road tests for both UM and OSU today, eh bucks? am very worried about NW, they absolutely took sparty behind the woodshed last weekend. who would have guessed a few weeks ago that NW would hang 49 straight points on sparty in their own backyard, dang...
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Michigan looked good against NW. Maybe Michigan State was stunned by the defeat to Ohio State the week before (MSU should of won). Ohio States offense is starting to look pretty good.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
not a bad day for PDGE, back solidly above 2 again.
yeah bucks that was probably UM's best game of the year, vs. NW; though the offense still struggled. surprising game from OSU in a number of ways: gave up almost 400 yards passing, but you're right their offense looked quite good.
UM/OSU is drawing near, should be a good one. this will be the 9th one in a row have gone to in ann arbor (7-1 so far) though have never made it down to the 'shoe, would like to sometime. my biggest worry for this year is: holmes, i admit that guy scares the crap out of me! not sure UM has anybody that can cover him.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PDGE still hovering a little over 2 these days. had an update last week:
good luck on saturday, osubucks, should be a great game. first time in almost 10 years that UM is a home underdog: OSU favored by 3. and probably rightly so: UM's offense has been very inconsistent this year, and clearly OSU has a top defense. will be tough for hart to get many yards on the ground tomorrow, and if henne is off then it may be over quickly. but - as you know, in The Game you have to throw records and stats out the window, you never know what will happen. we shall see how it goes, can't wait!
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
congrats on the win osubucks, was a very painful day to me. i have to hand it to smith: he was downright brilliant in the 4thQ. a long offseason of discontent in ann arbor...
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PDGE been pretty perky lately, back up to 2.30. still holding. PR'd some new contracts a few weeks ago.
10K not due for quite awhile, will be interesting to read. will include at least some flagship revenue. maybe it'll start to answer the question: was the dilution in shares to acquire flagship, worth it in terms of the accretive earnings potential? we'll see.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
PDGE still sticking around in the same trading range - 2.27. odd volume patterns: some days only 500 shares trade, some days (like friday) literally 100x that amount trade (547k shares on friday).
still hold about half of my PDGE. 10K not due until early may
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
started rebuilding my position here late last week, now back up to about 60% of the amount that i held at one time. can't resist adding on the pullback to the mid 1.80's. i guess there must be gnashing of teeth going on leading into the 10K due may 2, but - i think the numbers will be pretty good. share count will be significantly higher than last year, but - revs/profit will also be added to by flagship. we'll see in about two weeks.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
edged up slightly over $2 on the news, then subsequently edged slightly back under $2 as people fretted over holding into earnings.
has really been a long time since any kind of Q or K from PDGE - dec14. today before market open, they will release the numbers - should be interesting.
i don't mind holding into earnings because - it is a long-term play for me. i did swing-trades on half my position, but - the other half is long. i'm of course hoping that the numbers released today will be good, but - am not going to hit the panic button if they're a little disappointing. i like their long-term prospects and want to try to look at the "big picture" here. i think to some degree a disappointing Q has somewhat been "priced in" already, people have seemed very nervous about holding. we'll see how it goes today.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
dammit, lost .05 on the Q. some promising comments and things in here as well:
but - clearly 4thQ was a major disappointment, is no doubt going to gap down at the open.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
hated to do it, but - dumped right at the open, will look for dips to buy back on in the future
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Blue laments,
"clearly 4thQ was a major disappointment, is no doubt going to gap down at the open"
Their numbers are not that bad. Quite the opposite, they are reporting the expected. Costs for their "flagship" purchase and expansion into other states are as expected.
Only true loss I find in their report is the cost overrun for an abestos contract. Appears they did not quite estimate costs correctly.
All else looks very good.
This current .36 drop in share price is overkill, most likely panic amongst newbie traders. PDGE remains a good buy. I am looking to buy, today. I expect a decent rebound in the next few days.
Purl Gurl
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
only had 5 min to read and decide what to do, too many meetings this am. i wish all PR's would be released after market close so that more time to read, ah well.
in any event, i was expecting a drop to 1.50 range, so figured getting out at 1.78 was the best i could hope for. will review in more detail tonight, and hopefully be able to pick up again. i like PDGE, frankly it bugged me to sell it.
Posted by vg on :
Blue, Purl I went to the Flagship building that I had talked about a couple of months ago, found out that they have a warehouse there but they dont operate out of there. The site here in Arlington, Tx is their headquarters, theit sales, accounting, contracting and other main operations are taking place here. their field agents are out all over. Dou you guys have any questions? i'll go out there and find out.
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
reading and going over the numbers now.
i agree with you to some degree Purl, some costs particularly related to flagship acquisition and other new offices are to have been expected.
but - at least imho i honestly wasn't expecting a loss that wiped out half of the year's profits. my guess on the range of results was anywhere between a loss of .02, and a profit of .03. clearly my own research/guess was inadequtate. but, have discussed PDGE with quite a few sharp people, and none of them were expecting a nickel loss 4thQ.
still quite a few positives with PDGE: strong backlog, growing revs, positive guidance. i still like the flagship acquisition/diversification of business.
but - in my mind at least, some negatives that have to be considered. the leading one: margins. has always been a nagging concern - one that wasn't abated this past Q. maybe not the greatest private placement terms.
if you pressed me for a "summary", i'd say that in my view today that: before the Q i felt PDGE was worth 2.25, after the Q: 1.75. because i think will bounce around a fair amount, will look for reentry at roughly 10% under what i feel they're worth, or 1.58 range.
really i never went into today expecting to sell PDGE, still disappointed over that. have owned/followed it for literally years, still like them. just struggling along the best i can to try to value them properly.
actually am suprised PDGE held up as well as it did today, i was honestly expecting a 1.50-1.55 close. which would be an overreaction, but - my experience is that most investors don't dig too deeply, and mostly simply look at the bottom line.
Posted by Dustoff101 on :
Trading at $1.60.......[PDGE] Hey Whale where is your ALMI thread?
Or folks could just answer here,'suppose.. Anybody buying more at these levels?
PDGE------> 52 WK High----> $2.78
Posted by Purl Gurl on :
Dusty, I took PDGE off my live feed when volume fell away. Volume is not enough to play PDGE these days. I am watching for any news release which may excite buyers.
Purl Gurl
Posted by Dustoff101 on :
Got me periscope out on this stock......Will DD it 'mo betta" as an Hawaiian might say....
Pre-lim look at chart is very interesting how the bugga built....Got Holst on, makes me want to hunt down stocks fer some reason..Pri-mor-dee-le ?
![[Smile]](smile.gif)