posted
it is funny, i never really have any stress when it comes to my own holdings.
but - i do feel the stress and occasionally toss my keyboard across the room when stocks i have my dad and brother buy tank. when ETLT tanked to .135, i wasn't upset about my own losses and even calmly bought more, but i felt *horrible* about having my dad buy it at .40, ouch. am quite sure that's the largest % loss he's ever seen in his life on a stock, normally kellogg's is about the most volatile stock he'd ever buy, heh.
i'd much rather lose $ for myself than have any suggestion i take cause any family member to take a loss. luckily, i have a bit of a "buffer zone" with both my dad and brother where i'd have to make years of boneheaded suggestions like to load RVNM to ever drop me into negative territory with them: they were both big buyers of ALMI early on. whew! the thing that makes me happiest about this PDGE run is that i felt *lousy* for having my dad and brother buying large chunks around 1.20 and watching it tank to .92, but obviously am quite relieved the last few days to see i'm officially bailed out of the doghouse on that one.
Purl i'm sure with your proven brilliance in the market that you have a lot of friends and family asking you for stock advice, so maybe you know what i mean a little about the whole "suggestion stress" thing.
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I forgot I had left GTC sell order, it sold at 1.60 and i'm now wondering if I should get in please PM me Purl with ur suggestion if u were in my position
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wow, sentiment swung completely and now people who just learned about PDGE yesterday are hitting the panic button. just put in a buy order at 1.43, we'll see
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posted
I agree panic selling now. Most of the volume came from $1.60 and above. With the dip it is a good buy. This has lower share count then NWD so if the volume continues to rise it should shoot up for a nice short term gain!
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story of my life - missed the bounce by 2 cents, ah well. will leave the buy order out there, you never know. may have yet another afternoon dip.
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hey bucks - what do you think of your buckeyes giving the 15 this weekend, and getting 1 vs. texas the following weekend? am tempted to give the 15 even with zwick starting, what do you think?
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i tend to agree, i like OSU 27-10 or so in this one.
you heading up to ann arbor for "the game" this year, bucks?! if so, lemme know - you can drop by the tailgate and we can share a beer or 6 beforehand. did all my tailgating "beta testing" this past weekend - tested out the porta-satellite dish and tv to make sure they still worked, tried out some new recipes on my new tailgating grill, you name it. ready for the season to finally start this weekend!
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posted
I do understand about the "suggestion stress" my dear Blue. There are times I have to take a break from here, from stock tips, because I worry too much about causing loss of money for others.
Suppose I would not make a good pump and dump scam artist; my ethics are in the way.
However, my friends are pleased about some of my picks, like NWD, HOM and PDGE. Problem is some of them become impatient, begin to worry, usually sell then regret selling.
That causes me anxiety as well.
I am avoiding public stock tips for a period, save for private tips to a few close friends who know I am doing my darn best.
Bingo posted a tip on an oil and gas stock. I am off to look at that one. His tips are usually pretty good.
Someone asked, PDGE, I suspect it will continue moving up, slowly. I am still holding and hoping for a 1.80 to 2.00 range. Bottom support appears to forming around 1.55 per share, today.
My opinion is some market manipulation is taking place today to suppress prices to load up and sell later on. Blue is correct on the bulk of trades being at higher prices which means a lot of people are not inclined to sell at lower prices. I see a lot of upward pressure building for PDGE stock.
Volume is very significant for PDGE indicating a lot of interest.
posted
Quite a dip in prices today. Back up to opening price now. Glad I rode this one out. Looks like major hands are getting in on the plays which suggests more upward movement over this week and next week. Trades are good size; no piggy bank investors playing.
I'm going to ride this bronc for a bit; not ready to let go and I have lots of butt cushion.
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In this case, butt cushion is the profit margin set by buy-in price and perceived bottom support.
Readers will benefit by learning how to calculate risk-to-benefit ratio. Risk for my position is per share price falling back to bottom support, which appears to be 1.55 per share. Benefit is a gain upwards to 1.80 per share.
At bottom support (stop loss point) I have an acceptable profit margin, but could gain more by taking a risk on continued upward movement.
High today is 1.75 per and usually the second upward swing exceeds the first upward swing, although a second swing takes place more slowly and exhibits periodic down dips in price.
Indicators are massive volume for PDGE, lots of interest, most volume above 1.60 per share, good financial news, clear profit to come.
Those suggest the potential for risk are lower than the potential for benefit. Otherwords, there is a greater chance for better profit than a chance for loss of current profit.
Butt Cushion.
Be careful to not confuse greed with Butt Cushion.
Greed will bite your butt, consistently. Get out when the gettin' is good; an acceptable profit.
In my case, Greed will have to a take a big bite!
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posted
Looks close will be opening price, 1.60 per. Gains today appear to have strength and will stick for a period of time; upward pressure.
Tomorrow, a very good indicator will be an opening price in the range, 1.62 to 1.64 per. If so, that should set the stage for slow upward movement for PDGE stock.
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To avoid confusion, PDGE opened at 1.45 per but instantly jumped to 1.60 per share. I consider a price of 1.60 per to be the true open price and does support a notion of bottom support being around 1.55 per share.
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i hate to admit it because i always enjoy and read your stock suggestions emails, but - i can see your points. it's also a little trickier for you than me: you have a strong following here, and many may well buy based on your arguments.
arguing the opposite way here, though:
* it's always been clear in your posts that you are only presenting your *opinions*, and that they could well be wrong. there's no possible way even *you* could be right all the time in the market, over time you will end up making a few picks that go down, it's inevitable. i'm sure people understand this
* you have always been a strong proponent of: research, research, research. people should never buy anything based purely on a tip they read on a message board - that's being lazy and one would deserve to get burned always doing that.
* people have to factor in your input with research and reasoning of their own, in deciding buy and sell choices. you and i historically have agreed on many a thing, and independently come up with very similar watch lists of stocks. but still - even you and i would disagree on several stocks, which is of course as it should be, for 2 pretty strongly opinionated people who are quite capable of doing their own research. if you look at the CLSI thread, you'll see that i'm less bullish on it than you, though i still like it enough to own some. and similarly, i'm sure you have looked at some of the stocks i've brought up here like maybe GFCI and thought "what the heck is blue *thinking*?!?!".
* you've often tended towards the "Pro/Con" discussions of stocks of interest, presenting both sides. clearly i am a huge proponent of this method: i always use it when presenting stocks to my dad and brother, and a few here as done in this format as well - ie GFCI.
as long as you keep presenting things as "this is my opinion of xxx or yyy stock", honestly i think you should keep posting stock ideas here. we're all adults, everyone can make up their own choices of what to buy or not buy.
also, for example - i'd say that you, me, and bingo (as well as others of course like keithsan, glass, etc) have often have valuable discussions about various stocks, often helping each other to crystallize our own thoughts and ideas on what are and aren't good buying choices. even if we don't always agree, i consider say yours and bingo's etc thoughts as a valuable "check" on my own research and thoughts. all offering our own inputs, we're able to perhaps catch things that others have missed.
quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: I am avoiding public stock tips for a period, save for private tips to a few close friends who know I am doing my darn best.
posted
pretty interesting, looks like perhaps on the order of $8M bucks paid for flagship, all told. honestly, i have to admit i thought it might be on the order of several million shares added, the fact that it was surpringly few makes me happy.
so is kind of interesting, trying to analyze. the full filing is here btw:
O/S goes from about 14M to about 15M, a surprisingly small bump up. so current market cap around $24M. PDGE made about $2.3M in profit on about $60M in revs last year, without flagship.
let's conservatively say flagship adds $25M revs and $3M profit a year, for this year (PR claims they are at $2.3M profit on $18M revs for the first 7 months of this year). so we're looking at perhaps on the order of $4M profit for the year, taking out flagship's 35% cut, on revs of about $90M. with a current backlog of $40M. so that would imply a P/S of about .3, and a P/E in the neighborhood of about 6-ish. and this assumes that things keep going along "as they have been", ie - no big work coming in from say katrina or other hurricanes. based on these admittedly rough numbers, PDGE still seems pretty cheap to me. a PE of 6-ish range sure seems small, especially for a company with the revenue growth of PDGE.
it is interesting: $8M paid for a company earning let's say $3M+ a year. in theory, it should have "paid for itself" in let's say 3 years, and the rest is gravy. on the surface, sure seems like a good deal. which kind of brings up the point - i wonder why flagship went for this deal?
my only other buyout experience lately is - RIMS, and there i was on the other end of the bargain. kind of amazing - RIMS was one of my favorite stocks: fantastic balance sheet, trading at about 4x earnings, business good. so - they went up and sold, folded up shop - basically looks to be liquidating themselves at about .70 a share, when the stock was at .85 and in my mind was worth at least $1. weird, really pulled the rug out from under me and a lot of other shareholders. i guess that's neither here nor there, though.
in any event, i have to say - this looks like a good deal to me. purl, bucks, anyone else - any insights? i admit that i'm by nature skeptical and sometimes pessimisitic when it comes to the market, so i'd still like to know why flagship sold themselves for what seems on the surface to be pretty cheap.
but - at this point, i have to say that i'm left with a positive impression of the whole flagship deal. no idea how the market will react, probably not many people will even bother to read the terms of the agreement. in any event though, i like it - am going to keep holding.
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posted
Too early in this event for any consideration of repair and rebuild. Major thrust for the next few weeks will simply be to save lives and provide food and housing.
This is a disaster which will require years for recovery. Many companies will be busy for a very long time.
I am certain a "hurricane bandwagon" is in the making for many stocks. Remember the "Mad Cow" bandwagon? We should see the same for construction and repair companies known to do business in the disaster area.
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posted
agree bucks - you could tell the run wouldn't sustain at the open because the volume just wasn't there. i sold a chunk and then rebought it half an hour later.
sadly i wasn't as lucky with the ALMI dip - i was at .96 but missed it, even though it went there briefly - guess i picked the wrong block size, drats. you can be sure though purl, is on my watch list and am looking to add.
is funny, back to PDGE for a minute. i bet those who bought at the open were those who actually bothered to read the terms of the flagship agreement, and realized it was a good deal. and in the short term they were somewhat punished for their diligence - 95+% of PDGE holders didn't even bother i bet, and really only go on "if it looks hot". in the short term punished perhaps, but - i still think in the long run a little DD goes a long way and will eventualy be rewarded more often than not over time. at least, i like to think so.
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I have ALMI orders in at .96 to .98 and just missed that short dip, like you. Day isn't over!
PDGE, still showing good upward pressure. Gonna sit on it for a bit longer.
Having too much fun today, actually a day off from hard physical labor around here. I am using an "ISP upgrade & service" as an excuse to avoid mixing concrete for my slave driver old man.
Picture this, I am sitting here with four computers in front of me. Cannot decide with which one to play! Have an XP machine playing my cello music and displaying my stock market live feed. It is a dual processor machine. Typing to you on this one, serial port programming a firmware firewall on another, and messing with spam heads on another which is our email / dns server.
Having fun with an internet stalker. He has been stalking me since 1995. Keeps trying to hack our servers, I keep playing tricks on him, which is easy to do; he is a dumb F-word. Wrote a program which has kept him busy for the past four days searching for Chinese proxies to use for access.
"Paint It Black" by stones is playing. You should hear me play rock n roll on my cello!
Well, hmm, seems I am rambling.
Forget HOM Watch NWD Buy ALMI Hold PDGE Kick CLSI Hold IESV
Blue, watch LQMT for a few weeks. Use to be a really hot stock (see old articles) but is in trouble this year. However, LQMT is volatile and displays ten to twenty cent swings. Get in and get out; not a hold stock.
RNDC should be on your watch list as well.
CNR, if it hits 1.10 to 1.20 per, buy a bunch, wait three months and sell at 1.50 per. CNR makes that swing once a quarter.
Oh gosh, nothing more to write and I have to pick a computer with which to play.
Gotta look busy, I hear that concrete mixer outside going round and round and round...
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purl gurl mentioning repair companies: Check pbls up over 130% last 2 days. Ive been accumulating over last month with its book value of nearl 10cents and acquistions being made recently this "intrigued" me and bought on the strong hunch it would move much higher once it gets listed on otc board sometime next year. It sits right near I-10 on "high" ground so they will be in the thick of things whenever they get around to fixing the interstate.
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<man4apenny>
unregistered
posted
purl gurl mentioning repair companies: Check pbls up over 130% last 2 days. Ive been accumulating over last month with its book value of nearl 10cents and acquistions being made recently this "intrigued" me and bought on the strong hunch it would move much higher once it gets listed on otc board sometime next year. It sits right near I-10 on "high" ground so they will be in the thick of things whenever they get around to fixing the interstate.
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<man4apenny>
unregistered
posted
purl gurl mentioning repair companies: Check pbls up over 130% last 2 days. Ive been accumulating over last month with its book value of nearl 10cents and acquistions being made recently this "intrigued" me and bought on the strong hunch it would move much higher once it gets listed on otc board sometime next year. It sits right near I-10 on "high" ground so they will be in the thick of things whenever they get around to fixing the interstate.
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posted
spread is surprisingly wide, you're right bucks. if it keeps up like that, volume will be tough to sustain. too early to tell though.
purl, CNR - i agree, somehow i always seem to miss it by 2 cents though. a reliable swinger, much like HOM used to be before takeoff. haven't looked at RNDC for a year, will look into them and LQMT again.
is kind of funny, was a pretty positive PR after the bell for PDGE in terms of the acquisition terms, but - PDGE was down on the day, nobody cared. i liked ETLT's PR today as well despite it's lousy grammer and english, but - also down. i also thought ROK.V released a nice PR after the bell yesterday, but - also down.
is funny, i read all 3 of those PR's and thought "that looks pretty good, have been waiting for awhile to hear about xxx or yyy, and - sounds good to me". but - all 3 stocks *dropped* on the PR's. sometimes i wonder if i'm reading different PR's than all the other stockholders, heh! ah well.
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"Local companies already are helping. Churchill-based PDG Environmental Inc., an environmental remediation company, and Church Restoration Group, in the North Side, moved into the Gulf Coast when the storm hit south Florida, said Shawn Regan, director of business development for PDG.
About 50 PDG employees are assembling water pumping equipment in Gulf Shores, Ala., before spreading out to Jackson, Miss., and Mobile, Ala."
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your buckeyes won me some beer money saturday, osubucks! covered the spread. i'm not touching tex+1@osu next weekend though - is going to be one wild game and i have no idea who will win. am torn over whether to put $ down on ND next weekend, probably i will just be the over because i'm not convinced UM can stop ND's O, or that ND can stop UM's O. both UM/ND and OSU/TEX should be great games next weekend! we shall see how they play out, i'm very nervous about the UM game after watching how easily ND steamrolled Pitt on saturday
quote:Originally posted by osubucks30: Offense is suppose to be better and deffense should be strong like always. Should win by 15 easy.
posted
ND looked good. OSU/TEX should be a good game. The whole key to the Bucks winning is to stop Vince Young! Michigan should handle ND but Michigan D has some question marks. (I always want Michigan to win when they are not playing OSU. One year I would like to see both teams undefeated going into THE GAME!)
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osu/tex and um/nd are the best 2 games next wkend, both should be a lot of fun. michigan D has some *major* question marks this year, can't believe carr hasn't fired jim herrmann yet. they will be playing a lot of of 38-34 type shootouts this year.
both teams going into THE game undefeated would be amazing - came mighty close in '97. this year will be my 10th straight going to the um/osu game in ann arbor, 3 generations go to every game now that my son is old enough to live and breathe UM football. all i can say is that the UM secondary had better work out their issues before ginn and holmes come to town!
i believe the TCU/OU spread was 17.5, ouch!
btw, i find it amusing, people's perceptions of sports betting on one hand, and the market on the other. betting on sports is universally frowned upon, "investing" in the market is universally considered a wise and responsible thing to do. if you ask me - they're both gambling, pure and simple. in either case, you are betting that your own knowledge, insight, and predictive ability as it relates to a stock or a game, is more valid and better than the "general consensus" opinion. in my mind, there's no fundemental difference whatsoever between betting on sports and playing the market.
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