Here is the analyst report from MorningStar, share with you guys. The reason I pick TUES is majorly from TA chart. With 10% short interest, and $20 level showing strong support, I believe stock price will rebounce from here. I do not have a target at this point, but definately around $28
"Tuesday Morning is the sole national closeout retailer of first-quality, brand-name home furnishings. The company has built up a large, upscale customer base through its unique strategy of offering attractive items at compelling prices in stores that are open only during periodic three- to five-week sale events.
While Tuesday Morning's stores consistently offer the same merchandise categories, limited quantities of each product are available at each sale, creating a "treasure hunt" environment. In addition, Tuesday Morning's long operating history and strong balance sheet make it the closeout retailer of choice for many of its suppliers. We think that the company's brand name recognition, loyal shoppers, and close supplier relationships provide it with a narrow economic moat.
Tuesday Morning's unique business model goes beyond just its value prices and sales events. By keeping stores closed during the slow January and July selling periods and between sales events, locating them in strip malls and other low-rent areas, and using Spartan fixtures, the company keeps operating costs extremely low.
Tuesday Morning's financial results are evidence of this strategy's success. Over the past five years, annual sales growth has averaged 13%, as the company has expanded its store base at a 12% average annual rate. Tuesday Morning believes the United States can support at least 1,000 of its stores. Although we expect sales growth to slow in the near term due to a weak market for home furnishings, we think the unique store format presents the company with plenty of room to expand its store base and continue growing the top line at a decent pace.
The main risk is that Tuesday Morning may have problems sourcing enough quality items to sell at compelling prices as it grows. Many manufacturers are improving their inventory management, leaving them with fewer goods to sell to closeout retailers at rock-bottom prices. Growth in comparable-store sales, or comps (sales at stores open at least a year), has declined significantly from the double-digit rates of a few years ago, which could indicate that the company is having a tougher time finding first-quality goods to sell. If this trend continues, it could pressure Tuesday Morning's margins, as well as force it to increasingly offer lesser-known brands, which could hurt customer loyalty. In addition, the company's plans to accelerate store openings in the Northeast could pressure margins, thanks to higher store operating costs such as rent and labor in that region.
Valuation
Our $28 per share fair value estimate is based on a discounted cash-flow analysis. We expect sales growth to average about 9% per year for the next five years, driven by about 70 annual new store openings. We expect comps to be down slightly in 2005 and 2006, based on the weak current market for home furnishings, before recovering to low-single-digit levels. We expect operating margins to be challenging over the next couple of years as comps declines leave the company with less sales revenue to spread over its fixed costs. In the longer term, we anticipate that the operating margin will improve modestly, primarily based on continued gross margin improvements resulting from the company's recently implemented distribution and inventory-allocation systems.
Risk
The biggest risk facing Tuesday Morning is that as it continues to grow, it will become more difficult to find quality brand-name merchandise to sell at compelling values--while still generating attractive profit margins. Many manufacturers have improved their inventory management, leaving them with fewer goods to unload at rock-bottom prices. "
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Focus on CHB and TUES today. Both stocks are TA rebounce play. TUES has a perfect rebounce chart from its yearly bottom $21. TUES is so cheap now that we cannot miss it. CHB open at $15.23 this morning showing a good start.
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Start to load shares. Our economy is still good, unemployment is low, corporations on average earning is mild. oil price will calm down. Iran's problem will be solved soon and oil speculators will soon stop pushing the price up. Today's 200 points cut is not the stock market overvalued, but just the traders want it to.
Several good stocks you can think about to load at today's bloody battle field: MPS, NDN, CHB, EMC, SCS, TUES, VECO, BMC, IM, LUV, BRO,CC
Among these stocks, I prefer EMC, TUES, LUV and CHB
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TUES has strong balance sheet with P/E between 14 and forward P/E 13. PEG ratio less than one. Small debt with high institutional holding. The more important number is the thin outstanding share with cheap price. Average 10 days volume is double than last average 3 months volume showing a strong buy side action. With this higher volume, the stock price was on the up trend. This is why I pick TUES. TUES is a solid company with its bottom support * $20 level. Analysts raised TUES target to a mean $27 target.
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Tuesday Morning faces little direct competition, as the company is the sole national closeout retailer of upscale home furnishings and related items.
Tuesday Morning's no-frills store environment keeps store opening and operating costs low, contributing to the company's impressive first-year returns on new stores.
The company's loyal, established customer base keeps advertising costs low (it mainly advertises through mailings to existing customers) and provides a barrier to entry for new competitors.
Tuesday Morning's recent investments in distribution and merchandise allocation systems should help drive continued profit margin improvements.
Tuesday Morning should benefit from the continuation of the cocooning effect, as consumers spend more money on their homes.
Bears Say
Tuesday Morning's increased focus on opening stores in the Northeast could lead to higher store operating costs, due to higher rents and labor costs.
Rising interest rates may hamper sales growth, as fewer consumers purchase new homes or remodel their existing homes with the proceeds of mortgage refinancings.
My target of TUES is above $27.
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EMC tops view as profit jumps 27% By Rex Crum, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- EMC Corp. on Wednesday posted a fourth-quarter profit before items that grew 27% over a year ago as the storage-technology giant saw healthy increases in sales of both its storage system products and software applications.
Revenue rose 15% to $2.71 billion in the latest three months from $2.36 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were looking for EMC to earn 12 cents a share in the December period on $2.69 billion in revenue.
EMC, based in Hopkinton, Mass., said its storage-systems revenue grew to $1.3 billion, up 19% from a year ago, in the quarter. Software continued to become a bigger part of the company's overall revenue, rising 16% to $1 billion. Professional services sales posted a 4% increase from a year ago, rising to $403 million.
Looking ahead, the company forecast earnings before items of 14 cents a share for the first quarter on revenue of between $2.57 billion and $2.59 billion.
For fiscal 2006, EMC sees earnings before items of 63 to 66 cents a share on revenue of between $11.1 billion and $11.3 billion.
On a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles basis), the company forecast earnings of 11 cents a share for the first quarter, and 54 to 57 cents a share for the full year.
Wall Street's current consensus estimates are for earnings of 14 cents a share for the March quarter, and 65 cents a share for 2006
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EMC positive guidance: EMC CFO: 'Confident' About Opportunities in 2006
EMC Corp. (EMC) Chief Financial Officer William Teuber said Tuesday the company is "confident" about its prospects this year.
EMC is "very excited about the opportunities it sees in 2006," Teuber said during a conference call to discuss fourth-quarter results with Wall Street.
According to the financial chief, EMC is confident about 2006 because it expects its momentum from 2005 to carry on in 2006. He said products rolled out in the second half of 2005 will continue to ramp up this year, adding to the company's optimism. Teuber added that EMC will introduce new products in 2006, with a "major" announcement coming later this week.
For its fourth quarter, Hopkinton, Mass.-based EMC reported net income of $ 148.3 million, or 6 cents a share, compared with net income of $320.5 million, or 13 cents a share, in the year-ago fourth quarter. Revenue came in at $2.71 billion, up from $2.36 billion a year earlier.
Excluding charges, EMC posted profit of $409 million, or 17 cents a share. Analysts, according to Thomson First Call, had expected EMC to report earnings of 17 cents a share and revenue of $2.6 billion.
For the first quarter, EMC is targeting revenue of between $2.57 billion to $ 2.59 billion and earnings of 14 cents a share, excluding the adoption of Financial Accounting Standard No. 123R.
For the full year, EMC is targeting revenue of $11.1 billion to $11.3 billion and earnings of 63 cents to 66 cents a share. The First Call average estimates stand at first-quarter earnings of 14 cents a share and revenue of $2.56 billion. For the full year, analysts' estimates stand at revenue of $10.95 billion and earnings of 65 cents a share.
Joseph Tucci, EMC's chief executive, who was also on the call, said he is " bullish on the economic front" and expects a resurgence of the economy in Western Europe during 2006.
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Morningstar raised EMC's fair value to $19 from $16 Analyst Note 01-23-2006
We are raising our fair value estimate for EMC to $19 per share from $16 to account for increased revenue growth and operating margin assumptions. We have modeled average revenue growth at approximately 12% over the next five years driven primarily by growth of the small and medium enterprise segment. We believe software and services growth should allow the company to continue expanding operating margins to more than 16% from the low double digits in 2004. We expect the company to earn very attractive returns on capital at more than 20% over the next five years. Options shave approximately $1.50 per share from our fair value estimate.
We believe EMC EMC represents the class of the storage industry. We are raising our fair value estimate for this storage giant to $19 per share from $16.
We expect EMC (along with NetApp NTAP) to pull away from the competition in 2006 as the storage industry both grows and consolidates. Currently, six storage vendors have more than $1 billion in revenue each, but none has the breadth of products or sales capabilities of EMC. We are forecasting average revenue growth for EMC at more than 12% on the back of a highly effective sales team. In contrast, we expect the overall storage industry to grow at about 8%. EMC spent considerable resources in 2005 to better define pricing and support for its sales channel, issues that have plagued the company in the past. We believe these efforts have been largely successful and the company will see results in 2006. We also expect operating margins to increase more quickly than our earlier forecast, exceeding 16% for 2006 as the company realizes leverage from investments made in 2005.
In our view, EMC is a leading technology company in a growth industry. We would eagerly recommend an investment at a modest discount to our fair value estimate.
EMC has risen above the competition in the market for storage hardware and software.
EMC's strategy has successfully kept the firm at the forefront of an evolving storage industry. Vendors selling both high- and mid-range systems have to incorporate a broad array of storage technologies solving different business problems. Customers' storage requirements have moved beyond mass data repositories to include compliance, continuous data protection, and disaster recovery. These diverse requirements necessitate multiple storage technologies known as tiered storage. Competitors selling single products have to partner with the large storage providers like EMC to be included in the tiered storage solution.
EMC's narrow moat centers on its large installed customer base and its focus on product integration and support. While storage hardware standards have become more open, we believe customers look to EMC to provide better software management and integration services for their evolving storage needs. EMC's customers have significant integration requirements, and it is easier and cheaper for them to buy more products and services from EMC than from rivals such as IBM IBM and Hitachi HIT. We are excited about EMC's prospects for the near to intermediate term, but we do not believe the company has a wide moat. We think that there is reasonable risk that disruptive technologies in storage and software architectures may weaken EMC's leadership position over the long term.
We believe that EMC's next phase of growth will be driven by an effective sales channel strategy, furthering penetration into the small and medium enterprise segment. We are big believers in the future growth of this largely untapped segment driven by a need for affordable storage hardware optimized by sophisticated storage management software. Most notably, EMC entered a partnership with Dell DELL to sell a mid-range line of storage servers. The partnership has allowed EMC to successfully penetrate a new customer base. Through partners, EMC can grow revenues with relatively little investment in its salesforce. We expect EMC's channels to help the company expand operating margins and drive overall growth.
We are impressed by EMC's position in the storage industry and believe in the investments the company has made in its sales channels and software products. We feel the company is setting the pace for the storage industry and would gladly invest at a modest discount to our fair value estimate.
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Time to load back IM with good news this morning. Solid company with strong balance sheet.
Analyst comment:
"Slim profit margins and cyclical demand make the IT distribution industry challenging. Nevertheless, an expanding market presence in Asia and a focus on reducing costs should contribute to Ingram's long-term success.
IT product distribution has evolved into a two-tier system. First-tier distributors, such as Ingram Micro and Tech Data TECD, consolidate thousands of products from hundreds of vendors for second-tier resellers, such as CDW CDWC and Insight Enterprises NSIT, which integrate those products into complete solutions for end users. Distributors also provide service, support, and financing to resellers. Two-tier distribution is valuable because a direct sale from vendors to resellers is costly for both, given the number of parties involved.
Cyclical IT demand and increasing competition have made the distribution industry extremely challenging. Average gross margins have declined from 8% in the mid-1990s to about 5.5% today, while operating margins have dropped from 2.25% to about 1% during the same period. The fallout could have been worse, but Ingram's management implemented tight cost controls and strict working-capital management standards to restore profitability. Other decisions by management, such as developing tiered pricing, offering supply-chain management services, and a focus on vertical markets have aided profitability as well.
To gain market share, low-margin vendors have been expanding distribution channels globally. Ingram Micro's $550 million acquisition of technology distributor Tech Pacific is an example of this strategy. Because of the acquisition, Ingram Micro is now the largest technology distributor in the Asia-Pacific region. Tech Pacific adds about $2.5 billion to revenues, and increases the Asia-Pacific region's share of total revenues to almost 20% from 10%. Though regional operating margins are just above 1%, competitive advantages from Ingram Micro's dominant position could help lower costs and deter potential market entrants, providing a potential boost to profitability."
Management has been working hard to improve financial health as well. Over the past five years, Ingram Micro has paid down more than $1 billion in debt, strengthened its inventory management system, and enhanced fixed-asset turnover. Given these business model improvements, we would buy shares at a reasonable discount to our fair value estimate.
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If you like the steel stocks that I picked last year, such as SCHN, OS, you might need to pay attention to TUES. Big company with a little trouble before, but back on track and getting healtier. TUES not only have strong balance with dividend payout, but also have the best timeliness now. Bottom formed at $20-21 with large volume and momentum. I like TUES because it has huge upside appreciation room with less risk.
TUES is too cheap to miss it. My target at least $27 in 3 months.
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Seagate's strong stock momentum and revenue shed light on the data storage business. EMC is the number one in high end data storage industry, I believe EMC's stock trend will like RHAT or STX since by just thinking the demand side of the data storage I can figure out how good the business is. $13 is too cheap for EMC now, I found RHAT when it was $13, and now is almost $30.I picked RHAT based on its market share in Linux and the demand side on Linux system. I use the same logic pick EMC due to its expanding business in data storage. When a day EMC is $30, check back this thread.
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IM touches its 200MA line, possible rebounce from here. IM is one of my picks in IT industry together with MPS and ACN. IM has 11 forward PE and <1 PEG ratio with low debt. Pretty stable company. $18.18 won't be a bad entry point. I bought it back at $18.9, a little bit red here, but I have confidence on good company.
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IM rebounce from its 200MA like i mentioned this morning. IM should traded above $20.
TUES accumulate some momentum here, based on morningstar's evaluation, TUES has fair value $27. With TA and FA are both good, I am bullish on TUES.
Waiting for CHB back to $14. CHB has touched $15.23 last week with large volume. Institution accumulate shares when CHB is down to lower $13. CHB is a solid compnay with demnad of factory-built home demand is surging due to hurricane.
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TUES has strong support on its 20MA.Yesterday closed at exactly 20MA line which I think is the rebounce point. $22 is still cheap compared to its P/E 13. Also TUES has very low debt and strong cash position. With the short term rebounce momentum, now is still not late to load some shares.
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Sell RES and FCEL due to oil price pull back. Although RES shouldn't correlate with oil price, almost $10 per share profit satisfy my return. Maybe get back in oil when the trend is more clear. Long term oil is still a big concern, be ready to get in any time.
EMC momo still, very strong buy side even with market in red. EMC should go all the way up like RHAT. Strong and optimistic guidance for 2006 should push it to close $15.
TUES showing strong resistance today with low volume. 20MA should give it some push. We saw $22 today, my target is $27 or higher. Yesterday TUES had 1M volume that is three times higher than average. TUES easy money here for short term.
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EMC Product Announcement shows several new technology and new products. EMC will be the "Intel" in data storage.
01-26-06 | 08:04 AM CST EMC New Rainfinity Global File Virtualization Capabilities Simplify NAS Management
01-26-06 | 08:03 AM CST EMC New EMC Centera Features Deliver Advanced Retention Management Capabilities
01-26-06 | 08:02 AM CST EMC New EMC IP Storage Software Delivers Unmatched Performance and Ease of Use
01-26-06 | 08:01 AM CST EMC EMC Delivers World's Fastest, Most Flexible and Scalable Storage Array
01-26-06 | 08:00 AM CST EMC EMC Unveils New Storage and Virtualization Technologies that Extend Benefits of ILM
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TUES has strong support at $22 from yesterday. Spring is the best season for TUES since most retailer of upscale home furnishings, gifts, and related items clear their inventory. TUES'stores are open only during periodic sales events and Spring is the most flourish time. More important TUES is a good buy is it has almost none downside risk at this level since $20-21 is the lowest price ever. With all analysts report holding a mean target $27-28, the upside appreciation is very likely. From TA perspective, TUES is a perfect rebounce play. I am holding my shares tight and not for sale under $27
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service on Thursday raised the outlook on office furniture maker Steelcase Inc.'s (SCS) ratings to positive from stable and affirmed its Ba1 long-term senior unsecured ratings. The outlook, said Moody's, in part reflects the prospect for continued strong operating performance associated with robust demand trends in the contract furnishings market, positive momentum in restructuring the company's asset and employee base, and significant free cash flow generation relative to total debt. Moody's said it expects Steelcase to continue to improve margins through further consolidation of its production footprint, and believes related short-term economic costs are necessary to better secure the company's long-term positioning and competitiveness.
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First Call Recommendations TUES, mean consensus recommendation: BUY
Current 30 Days Prior 60 Days Prior90 Days Prior 120 days Strong Buy 5 5 7 5 Buy 1 3 3 5 Hold 9 7 4 5 Strong Sell 0 0 1 0 Sell 0 0 0 0 Total 15 15 15 15 Mean Buy Buy Buy Buy
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If you take a look at all the available analysts research, 99% of them are optimistics on TUES with Buy or Strong Buy recommend and point out that TUES is undervalued at its cheapest level $20. The reason I like TUES just because it is a safe play with large appreciation opportunity. what can be better than this? Here is Zack's statistics with even higher target:
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New-Home Sales Hit All-Time High in 2005,Champion (CHB) stock is a top selection for year-ahead relative price action. The company seems on track to post a significant rebound in share earnings this year with double-digit growth thereafter.
CHB will announce its earning on Feb 10 with market expectation .12/share. CHB definately will beat the expectation by at least 4 cents with 0.52 in 2005 full year. CHB is a good buy from both TA and FA. Still cheap here, I am aiming it for around $17 by Apr.
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Short AIN for its lower guidance and shrink profit growth and trouble in paper business. Also if you want to hedge the market downside next week with possible sell off, AIN is a good short target. From TA, it is on a downtrend and next support point is around $33.
Here is the reason why is been downgraded:
"Albany International looks as though it has run into some problems. Despite indications of solid top-line growth, the company recently warned that earnings would likely be $0.36 a share in the fourth quarter (results were not released until this report went to press), $0.02 off the year-ago's pace and roughly half our previous expectation. The company continues to struggle with the high costs of raw materials, particularly resin, which is the main component in paper machine clothing (PMC), the material that carries paper through the paper-making process. PMC makes up more than three quarters of AIN's top line, making resin prices an extremely important determinant in profitability. Pricing pressures overseas were also cited as a detractor as were expenses associated with recent restructuring efforts. Accordingly, we've lowered our full-year 2005 earnings estimate by $0.40, to $2.20 a share.
However, we think the company is well prepared for the challenge. Albany has undergone major restructuring in the past few years, lowering its cost structure to be more in line with weaker demand. The most recent initiative was completed in 2004, and included the closure of four facilities and the elimination of 600 employees. Theses efforts should result in $40 million in annual savings. Meanwhile, Albany has announced that it will be opening its wallet and increasing its capital spending to $70 million to $80 million this year (almost double 2005's expected total). We suspect that a bulk of the money will be used to strengthen its Applied Technologies business, which produces materials and insulation for a wide array of goods from clothing to home furnishing. The increased penetration in these markets is a wise move in our opinion, given the softness we anticipate in the paper industry. Also, we would not be surprised if Albany utilized market weakness to venture into the acquisition market. Its financial flexibility (the company recently cleared more than $75 million in debt off its balance sheet) and strong cash flow make it a probable buyer.
Still, Albany holds little appeal at this time."
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Load more TUES at the end, aiming for next week rally. Three days closing at almost even and especially today has low volume. With all the upgrade from analysts this week, will see much more momo next week. Usually there is one to two weeks lag after analysts upgrade reports since investors need time to digest it. Liket RNAI i called at $3 when the analysts reports optimistic sentiment. TUES will be the same. Load more here.
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AIN manufactures papermaking supplies, engineered fabrics, paper machine clothing. Think about the paper industry for a second. What do you think about the demand of paper in the future. Take a look at the IRS requirement this year, all the public traded firms must file eletronic file, no paper anymore. Also all the banks are encourage people to use paperless. Also all the universities restrict the printing papers, and more. That is the problem that AIN is facing now: shrink demand side. Also AIN runing the trouble in the high cost and increasing Inventories. AIN's annual Net Income is shrinking by a large percentage, meanwhile Inventory keep growing. Also recently AIN lower its guidence for 2006. Alfter that, analysts downgraded AIN by two level from neutral to strong sell which is unusual. All these together will give us a decision, short sell it. I believe when the market goes down, these kind of fundemental problem companies will get the biggest hit since they are good short target. How about the upside, of course, when market in green, since companies have fundemental problem, the upside is little.
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MM want EMC cheap. This is the same trading style when RHAT announce its earning at the end of 2005. I still remember the day after RHAT announce strong earning, it down $1. Then from that on, it went all the way up. Now, EMC follow the same pattern. Take a look at EMC's strong guidance for 2006 and its business sector, you will be surprise why its share price not go up. What factor can be better than a good guidance? MM's bashing in order to aquire shares cheap.
With EMC's strong business growing and strong relationship with other tech companies and high-end data storage technologies, I am bullish on EMC here. Under $14 is imcredible cheap here and EMC is totally undervalued.
Here is another upgraded from AGE:
"Investment Premise: We currently rate shares of EMC a Buy/Aggressive rating and have implemented a 12-18 month price objective of $17/share. We believe EMC's leading position in the disk storage and its expanding leadership position in the storage management software market (both organically and through its recent acquisitions of Legato, Documentum, and VMware) will allow the company to materially benefit from a recovering IT spending environment over the next few years."
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Short more shares of AIN, serious problem company with higher cost and shrink demand. From chart, it has down trend channel from its $40 level. This stock running a trouble in its business, by looking at its balance sheet, its inventory keep going up and cash keep shrinking. Net income shrinks by a even further percentage. Also compared to 2004 $60,023, 2005 generate negative ($19,840). None of those keep ratios satisfy me. I bet this stock is overvalued.
One big problem that analysts concern is:
"The company continues to struggle with the high costs of raw materials, particularly resin, which is the main component in paper machine clothing (PMC), the material that carries paper through the paper-making process. "
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AIN has fundermental trouble in both high expense, high raw materials cost and shrinking product demand. This is a downtrend stock. It is overvalued and I am in short position.
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posted
Comment on AIN based on its earnings report:
I believe AIN is overvalued and is on the downtrend channel and should be traded lower than $30. It is a good short candidate. Following is my analysis:
AIN lower its fourth quarter earning estimation and guidance two weeks before they announce a positive result. Read carefully what CFO said, the surprise is due to less than expected compensation and tax cost. The positive earning is not from strong business or operating income. If it were not the tax and compensation, AIN's earning will be very urgly.
Also pay attention that CFO confess that the energy cost is a big concern to their business also analysts report that raw material's price is much higher than before and paper price is lowing. The demand of AIN's products is shrinking (you can compare 2003-2005 financial statement) and invetories increased. In addition, AIN also invest and require other companies which will cost the company's significant amount of cash. AIN's paper business tanking force them to switch their business midel and put more investment into applied technologies area. Switching business model is risky.
Valueline Analyst downgraded AIN from 3 to lowest 5 and Morningstar reports that AIN miss again its EPS estimation. Exclued the "surprised" tax and compensation save, AIN has a very negative earnings for fourth quarter. Also company lower its guidance for 2006 which give hits that the earning for 2006 Q1 won't be as lucky as this time.
Here is the earnings report that I reference:
"The latest results came as a surprise because company officials had predicted less than two weeks ago that earnings per share for 2005 would be $2.18.
During a conference call Friday, Michael Nahl, the company's chief financial officer, said the difference was due to the fact that compensation and tax costs had been less than anticipated. He said Albany International wouldn't make earnings projections again in the future.
For the fourth quarter, the company earned $14.1 million, or 44 cents a share, on sales of $247.9 million, up from $12.0 million, or 38 cents a share, on sales of $238.4 million in the 2004 quarter.
Fourth-quarter earnings were negatively impacted by higher petroleum costs and pricing pressure in Europe, according to the company. Those two factors decreased fourth-quarter earnings by 20 cents a share.
Chief executive Joseph Morone said high energy costs will not go away, but the company has put a new management team in place in Europe that will correct the pricing issues.
At the time it made earnings projections earlier in the month, Albany International also announced plans to invest $150 million over four years in manufacturing facilities in Asia and Latin America. Morone said that especially in Asia, margins are higher on products made in the region. ?
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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Motley mentioned AIN's problem in early Oct 2005 and all those concerns turn out to be true in AIN's 4Q announcement and somber guidance for 2006. Oil price will not be reliefed soon and this will keep increasing AIN's cost.Also paper industy is on the downtrend due to the fond of paperless.
Also in Cramer's recap he point out that "Albany's stock, which is near a 52-week high, is expensive, said Cramer. Cramer is not a fan of any other publicly traded U.S. textile stocks. "They're all bad companies," he said. "For a bad company in a bad spot, good news like this is not enough," he said."
Here is what motley said about AIN:
"Those are solid numbers, but investors aren't impressed. The firm's shares had fallen about 2% in Monday morning trading.
Why so? Well, while CEO Frank Schmeler remains sanguine about his company's future prospects, he also sounded some cautious notes in the earnings announcement. Among other things, Schmeler characterized market conditions for Albany's doors unit as "mixed" because of slow economic growth in Europe. In addition, he noted "increased concern" and predicted slowing sales for the company's engineered fabrics division, which manufactures products for the pulp and paper industry.
That latter concern, however, is based partly on currently high energy costs. If those prices ebb -- as history and falling gas-pump prices suggest they will -- that should help mitigate some of Schmeler's concerns, all while helping Albany International's investors continue their peaceful slumber. "
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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The whole paper clothing industry is taking its step toward south due to shrinking demand around the world. Look at Textile Industrial (^YHOh809) sector index, it is turning red in the last several trading days. AIN not only in the downtrend industry, but also has more serious problem with higher cost in raw materials. From the RA and TA, AIN is the worst company in the paper clothing industry. With market it red, AIN is the stock you can make cash by shorting. From its TA chart, its next bottom will be around $33-34.
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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posted
The Paper & Paper Products group's technical rating of E ranks. AIN receives an overall rating of D+, which is in the 50th percentile of all stocks in the Investor's Business Daily database. (E is the Lowest and A is the highest). From AIN's 52 high $40, it has strong selling presure, by looking its weekly chart, obviously a downside trend. A good short sell stock to hedge market downside risk.
IBD Stock Checkup Analysis: Albany Intl Corp Cl A receives an overall rating of D+, which is in the 50th percentile of all stocks in the Investor's Business Daily database. The overall rating is calculated using five proprietary ratings that measure each stock's Technical and Fundamental qualities and the Technical and Fundamental qualities of the industry group that it resides in, as well as a rating on the stock's current price attractiveness.
Albany Intl Corp Cl A receives a Technical Rating of 63, which places it 9th out of 41 stocks in the Paper & Paper Products group.
Albany Intl Corp Cl A receives a Fundamental Rating of 62, which places it 3rd out of 41 stocks in the Paper & Paper Products group.
Albany Intl Corp Cl A receives an Attractiveness Rating of 72, placing it 6th out of 41 stocks in its group.
The Paper & Paper Products group's technical rating of E ranks it in the 9th percentile of the 197 different Investor's Business Daily Industry Groups. The Paper & Paper Products group's fundamental rating is E, ranking it in the 9th percentile of all groups.
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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In RHEO under $4. A 70% cut last Friday due to unsatisfied result of its Phase III trail. Do some number and you will see its not risky now to buy. Total outstanding 42M shares and floating only 15M. Last Friday there was 21M shares traded and today has 3 more shares done. under $5 is unshortable and most of shares been sold which means no more shares to sell.
The unsatified result is due to the unusual placebo group response make the diffence between placebo group and drug testing group not significant. But the drug testing group do show positive results. Since the problem is from the not significant difference, RHEO will redo the trial and will update the data later. RHEO is not a dead fish and just like ELN. I am in it here for a rebounce play. No target yet, but will see.
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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MPS will announce earning Feb 8. It is good time get in now. Look at ACN, its good earning is an signal to IT outsourcing industry. My model shows 16 cents for 4Q and total 53 cents for year 2005. I am pretty sure MPS will give a strong guidance for 2006 base on global IT outsourcing trend. $14 is a cheap price for MPS. I am aiming for $16-18 for 3 months.
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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WDC and EMC will be the next AMD and INTC. Data storage sector will be the fashion in wall street soon. Over the next several years, demand for storage technology should continue to be fueled by the explosive growth of data, and data security and compliance concerns.
Despite intense competition and some natural slowdown in EMC's top-line momentum as the revenue base gets larger, the company appears well positioned to make the most of the healthy growth in the storage arena.
WDC to gain market share in the mobile hard-drive arena and continue to bring new products to the market through the 2008-2010 period.
I am holding EMC and WDC as data storage sector, you can also look at STX and MXO which both of them already up too much. EMC is the best play here.
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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Still not late to buy back RES after oilfield sector porfit taken last week. RES will announce its earning and guidance next week, it will be a big jump. Oilfield sector getting hotter and hotter. It doesn't matter whether oil price goes up or down, oilfield equitments always are demanded. RES is definated worth > $40.
Here are all the oilfield stocks, after comparing other companies, you will see RES is the best one base on its TA and cost benifit ratio:
BHI DO HAL MS NE RDC RES SLB WHQ SII GSF RIG TKP ESV BJS
-------------------- Disclaim: I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!
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