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Author Topic: Cashmaker's hot stocks and trading
cashmakers
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ACN will accounce Q1 2006 earning after market close. First call estimate is $.34/share, my calculate is $.37/share, I am betting on it. My model beat the average first call earning forecast. If you want to play earning, ACN is a safe play.

And don't forget MPS which is in the same sector. Should be good tomorrow.

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cashmakers
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ACN up $1 so far after market close, announce $.36 EPS which beats the market concensus. My model is closer than the First Call, I test it so many times. Easy money here, will sell tomorrow if it jump a lot.
Watch MPS tomorrow also, holding it tight, won't sell under $16

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cashmakers
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MPS is a better play than ACN. ACN announce strong earning and shows the strong business in IT outsourcing. MPS is much cheaper and with good shape.

Add more EMC at its low. So wierd of wall street. EMC accounce preliminary good number on the earning and cut 1000 job as well as lift its 2006 outlook. EMC totally manipulated by MM, but I am bullish here. EMC is a good buy.

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cashmakers
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CHB been shorted by stupid money purely base on Technical analysis. CHB is a solid compnay with high growing business and strong fundemental value. There is not reason it should go down. I bet since it touches its 100 days MA line, shorter will cover soon. 5Million shares been shorted from its $15 level. My TA model alerts that rebounce is very likely base on short interest and moving average analysis.

CHB is totally MM manipulated, it will be traded at its fundemental value. I am not afriad of this kind of market volatility and very optimistic on CHB's business.

Will add more if it down. Shorter start cover. Easy money here, good entry at its 100MA line. Look at this number:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/stock_quotes.aspx?ticker_symbol=chb

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cashmakers
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Similar situation in Wall Street: One time charge affect daily stock price, but not long term value. EMC is a typical example. I remember RHAT last year announce its one time charge affected its quarter earning and after market down 10%, but look at RHAT now. Also LAZ last year announce its one time charge, it down almost $1 that day, but back up $1 next day. Today EMC shows the same play: Day trader play with one time charge affect last quarter earning.

"The charges are expected to shave some 11 cents per share off of fourth-quarter net earnings, bringing quarterly profit to 6 cents per share. Excluding these items, EMC expects earnings to be at the high end of its earlier forecast of 16 cents to 17 cents per share."

All know that one time charge just a transitory effect, it is trival compared to company's business. If you are a investor, should look forward instead of this historical trival effect. EMC today is totally played by day trader who utilize its cutting job and increase dismiss cost.

All these one time charge excluded, EMC tap it high end earning which is 17c and raise it guidance for 2006 revenue and forward earnings. If you are an investors, it is time to load a good company when it is affected by the transitory factor.

It can not be down more since institution's shares not for sale. It is time to load. I bet EMC will rebonce back in the afternoon trading.

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cashmakers
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Valueline raised CHB's techical today to 1 which signal the best entry point. CHB will rebounce from here. Add more shares.Short will cover soon. CHB's play recall me the NGPS when it was down to $14 and rebounce to $30. Another big meat for me to play, easy money here. Valueline's raise its timeliness to 1 not long time ago aiming $20 target.

Here is the number:
Value Line Ranks*

Timeliness: 1 (Raised - 09/30/2005)
Safety: 4 (Lowered - 11/08/2002)
Technical: 1 (Raised - 01/06/2006)
Industry: 64 (Manuf. Housing/RV)
BETA: 1.7 (1.00 = Market)

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cashmakers
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My reply statment of my trading strategy on Mr.Market, share with you guys;

I used to be a big TA fans and addict to it. However, on average, TA can not bring me gold. You lost some and win some, finally it turns out to be a zero sum game. I struggle for years and tried to find a way can give me "sure profit" on TA until someday one CFA analyst told me that "A good fundermental portfolio manager can not live without a good trader" which shed light on my trading life. I got the CFA later and learn tons of FA and model building technique. Now I can conclude my stratergy is Crossectional regression models help me to filter companies and time series models help me to trade. BTW, i also look at psychology, astrology,etc. I can say one thing is my picks is not coincidence or luck, it contains my almost 12 hours work every day(exclude weekend). I read tons of report from valueline, monringstar, valueengine, S&P report, first call, etc. I can tell you one number to show how good my portfolio is, my last 3month return is >50% (of course from oct to next jan is the best time for us) but last year I still made >35% which is far more than s&p 5%.

Although I made some mistake like FLEX and you can say CHB or whatever, on average I make cash.

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update of my growth portfolio, you can find my previous comments on most of these stocks:
AirLine: LUV JBLU
Hightech/SOFTWARE: BMC,EMC,MPS,ACN
Steel: SCHN, OS
Retail: NDN, GPS
EMS: FLEX
Homebuiling: CHB, FLE
Small Good FA stocks: RNAI, BTJ

The best upper space stocks IMO are: EMC, CHB, MPS, NDN and FLE. Some of stocks like SCHN, OS and JBLU I have only Hold sentiment due to their recent jump, but i can not find a reason to sell.

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I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!

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cashmakers
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More good news to CHB:
*DJ S&P Raises Champion Sr Note Rtg To 'B+'>CHB


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
January 05, 2006 12:40 ET (17:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 12 40 PM EST 01-05-06

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cashmakers
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Is this true or rumor: HPQ will buy EMC? If it is true, EMC+HPQ > IBM

HP Will Buy EMC

Okay, so maybe this is a stretch. But think about it: Lump some of the most sophisticated, cutting-edge storage and software with some of the best high-tech services money can buy and you've got ... well, you've got another IBM.

Bocada CEO Mark Silverman, whose modest Bellevue, Wash., company makes storage management software in Microsoft's looming shadow, thinks it could happen.

"The fallout will be huge, both to the HDS relationship, as well as all of HP's storage software," Silverman said in a recent interview. However, it will enable HP (and EMC) to leverage HP services to try to compete with IBM."

Silverman said HP doesn't have much of a storage product portfolio or strategy, while EMC isn't exactly known for providing services.

"EMC has to get bigger and grow outside of storage," Silverman explained. "They created products with high price points, but I credit them with making storage central to IT decision-making."

Silverman also said that the acquisition rate in the past few years has taken its toll on the independent storage channel, with smaller players being sucked up into EMC's, IBM's or HP's solution sets.

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/article.php/3574631

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cashmakers
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AMC Article unveil some signal on the HP-EMC deal rumor. Today's unusual volume and selloff at the market open is MM's typical play? Today's trading chart may shed light on institution absorbing at low price after bashing EMC in the morning by means of blaming EMC' transitory small one time charge effect. I-Watch showing tons of buy at the low $13.6 and with higher than average institutional buying:
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=emc

I smell something during the trading and Bingo! some articles talk about HP buy EMC after market close clear my doubt. Hope this deal is true.

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1908849,00.asp

"EMC Corp. and IBM are poised to make out best in this environment, due in part with partnerships with other large vendors, Farmer said in his report.

About 31 percent of the CIOs say Hopkinton, Mass.-based EMC will pick up more of the spending share, which stands at about 23 percent now, according to analyst firm IDC, in Framingham, Mass.

The share could be considered even larger if EMC's partnership with Dell Inc. is factored in. Dell resells EMC's high-end storage lines, and those EMC machines account for a large percentage of Dell's overall storage revenue, the report said.

The partnership gives Dell, of Round Rock, Texas, the high-end storage devices it was lacking before, and EMC the access to the midrange and low-end that it didn't have before.

A quarter of the CIOs also said IBM, which has about 12 percent of the market, will gain share, the Merrill report said. "

And more:
http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3575496

Google it up and you will find more news about EMC-HP

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cashmakers
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EMC upgraded by CSFB analyst after market Friday to a new high target of $26. That is almost 100% price target to its current trading value. I am very bullish here on EMC in the next few month. My old target was $20, but now I won't sell it even at $20. Next week will be interesting for EMC. Today's sell off now make sense to me: MM bashed on it and absorb at a lower price.

EMC's Competitive Position Seen Validated
Kate DuBose Tomassi, 01.06.06, 5:04 PM ET


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NEW YORK - Credit Suisse First Boston research analyst Andy McCullough reiterated an "outperform" rating and a target price of $26 on EMC following the data storage giant's pre-announcement of fourth quarter 2005 earnings with revenue beating the company's original guidance.

EMC (nyse: EMC - news - people ) pre-announced revenue of $2.70 to $2.71 billion, ahead of previous guidance of $2.67 to $2.69 billion. The company said it expects earnings of 17 cents per share, above the original guidance of 16 to 17 cents.

"We believe that these results again validate the strength of EMC's competitive position and the diversification of its business model," McCullough said.

The company also announced plans to cut 1,000 jobs, or approximately 4% of its global head count, to expand its sales force and improve focus on growth opportunities.

"With the company having completed 13 acquisitions in the past three years with minimal work force reductions, we view this rebalancing to be a natural operational progression and not the result of diminished internal expectations at EMC," the research analyst said.

EMC is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 24.

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cashmakers
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CHB techincal analysis: rebounce from 100 MA and EMA line. RSI touches its 20 bottom line signals oversold. 6 months uptrend channel rebounce from around $13.30. Shorters buy back to cover. CHB is a solid company with forward PE only 14 compared to current 30. CHB can easily back to $15 level. It is a strong buy here.

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I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!

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cashmakers
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CHB fundemental analysis:
Champion Enterprises has completed the acquisition of New Era Building Systems. In early August, the company announced that it had inked an agreement to acquire New Era, a leading modular homebuilder, and its affiliates, Castle Housing of Pennsylvania and Carolina Building Solutions, for $41 million in cash. This deal has made Champion the largest producer of manufactured homes in the United States. Moreover, the transaction should be immediately accretive to CHB's earnings, as well as lift annual sales by roughly $100 million.

The company should post a hefty year-over-year share-net advance in 2005. Champion reported a 58% jump in earnings for the September interim, on a considerably more modest 6.4% top-line advance. Notably, CHB's average selling price increased by 11% during the quarter, as the company passed on higher raw material and transportation costs to its customers. This, in conjunction with ongoing operational restructuring actions, augurs well for additional margin improvement over the balance of the year and into next. Moreover, the company recently received a $60 million order for 2,000 single-section manufactured homes from FEMA, in connection with Hurricane Katrina relief efforts, which should lift CHB's top and bottom lines during the final stanza of 2005. Excluding the FEMA order, Champion's backlog at the end of the third quarter was up 47%, relative to the year-ago figure. However, with the FEMA request taken into account, third-quarter backlog jumped an impressive 97%. All told, analysts look for Champion to report 2005 earnings of about $0.52 a share, with a strong double-digit advance the following year 2006.

Strong demand plus government contracts will give CHB a good number for year 2005 and backup its 2006 revenue. CHB will announce its 10K for year 2005 in Feb.

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cashmakers
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Here is why I am bullish on CHB from both TA and FA: When both analysts and brokage firms thumbs up, you know what to do.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=CHB
Mean Recommendation (this week): 1.0
Mean Recommendation (last week): 1.8
Change: -0.8
Industry Mean:
Sector Mean:
S&P 500 Mean: 2.47

* (Strong Buy) 1.0 - 5.0 (Strong Sell)
Zacks Rank 3
Target Price Consensus 18
Last Quarter (200509) EPS .2
Last Quarter EPS Surprise 0%
Avg. Broker Recommendation
(1 = strong buy)

http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?PHPSESSID=0de8e0df79ba58e5644b05ba300d1529&t=chb&type=main&pd=1

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cashmakers
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CHB $14 is coming, not for sale under $16

Short term target with 3 weeks in $16. My target 3 months for this darling is $20. Best time to buy now under $14. CHB will announce its 2005 earning and guidance in Feb. CHB's EPS will beat the expectation in a large premium due to government contracts in 2005 and will raise the guidance in 2006 due to factory-build home demand surge. CHB and FLE are the only stocks that can be invested in homebuilding industry.

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cashmakers
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Bingo. CHB $14, lol. Will hold. But don't forget FLE, which also the same sector and is the second largest factory-build home and number one RV manufature. RV demand also increased, accroding to analyst report. I am holding FLE aiming $15 target.
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cashmakers
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For a oil price surge concern (some oil secoter abalysts predict that oil price might surge over $70, but personally I don't want that since I am not driving hybri-car), add more shares of RES, which is the safest oil stocks. low risk with perfect TA. RES also engage in wind mill business and wind power will be another hot alternative engergy in the market. Yesterday there was a article talk about the tremendos growhing of wind mill, they only mention GE, I don't know how they can ignore RES. Go to wind power association website, you will find a lot of projects done by RES. RES still cheap compare to other oil companies. Will post more research on RES soon.

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Market reaches its phycological target 11000 with heavy trading. This week we will have two major economics data together with other companies earnings. Janaury effect back to stage again. However, I am a little concern about the profit taken after the 11000, which says tomorrow may not continue surging since the market keep rallying for the last two weeks. I would like to cut some of my positions due to this concern, but definately not sell off my shares or change my positions. Just a trading stratergy to balance my account and to avoid market pull back. Here is what I cut: Out RNAI 80% shares, Out BTJ 80% shares, Out LUV 30% shares, Out CHB 60% shares, Out FLEX 80% shares. Add RES and EMC due to the oil concern and EMC rebouce.

Will buy back those cut shares if market can sustain the 11000 high.

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After market: NDN announced preliminary strong revenue for 4Q. At the same time, PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT Co file 13G today for purchasing 1.45 Million common shares, totally holding 4.1Million shares.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/763212/000110465906001176/a06-1368_2sc13g.htm

NDN reported a positive and strong same-store sales last quarter with revenue $278.8 Million beat the expectation 276.4 Million. "The discount retailer said for the quarter ended Dec. 31, total sales were $278.8 million, up 4.9 percent from $265.9 million last year. Retail sales for the quarter were $269.3 million, up 5.6 percent from $255.1 million last year."

Will see strong move tomorrow. Today's jump is the news be leaked before announcement. Institutional investors absorbed NDN heavily recently.

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EMC (EMC ) : S&P Reiterates 5 STARS (strong buy)
Analyst: Richard Stice, CFA


EMC acquired Internosis, a privately-held provider of information technology services. Terms were not disclosed and the deal is not expected to materially impact EMC's 2006 EPS. We believe this transaction is in line with the company's strategy to utilize, in our view, a significant cash position to diversify its revenue base. EMC recently possessed over $3 per share in net cash. Moreover, we think similar acquisitions are likely to occur in the coming months. Our 12-month target price remains $18 and we strongly advise purchase of the company's shares.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2006/pi2006019_6981_pi010.htm

Since last Friday, MM using small orders bashing EMC and absorb tons of shares are the low price. Last Friday EMC announce strong guidance and earning. BFSC analysts raised its target to $26 and today S&P analysts raised its target to $16 within 12 months. EMC is number one in data storage sector and this sector is getting hotter and hotter.

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cashmakers
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Watch out ABLE, oil sector up, ABLE rebound. Can it jump $1 like GEOI yesterday?
In some ABLE yesterday and GEOI and RES for oil play. ABLE has perfect TA rebound trend.

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From TA analysis, ABLE seems follow GEOI yesterday pattern, oil price surge and ABLE still on the bottom. Daily green lines support its untrend. May see ABLE back to $8-$9 level. ABLE usually played by MM since it has only 2M floating shares. Now, ABLE is better than GEOI to play.

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I don’t guarantee the accuracy of the information I post. All my posts are based on my own research. I am not a registered investment advisor and therefore I am not qualified to give you any investment advices. You Make Your Decision!

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Add back CHB shares this morning, which cut yesterday on the market sell off. Buy back IM, solid company. IM should traded above $20.

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stickfigurefred
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CHB takes off really well right before hurricane season [Smile] Great stock to get into, solid.
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Time to add IM and CHB more into my portfolio. Both stocks are solid fundamental with rebounce trend in chart. SCS is also good, be upgraded yesterday, will see new high.

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EMC will be the next RHAT. I pick RHAT at its low price $12, it is over $30 within 6 months. Think about how many data we have now and in the future, then you can figure out the demand side of high end data storage business. Data will be the most valuable asset in the future. Data storage will be the next hot topic.

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Still not too late to buy RES. Compared to other oilfield company, RES is the cheapest one and the FA is ranked toppest. This kind of oilfield services and equipment stocks usually traded at $50 range. You can not find a better large cap oil related company like this.

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LUV is good a buy here, buy at the dip due to air line sector problem today, not relate to LUV itself. Jan 18 will the ER day for LUV, my model calculates the EPS is 2 cents higher than market concensus. LUV has the best balance sheet and is the only profitable company in airline industry. $16.5 now is the best entry before earning.

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FLE comment from valueline analyst, positive shape. I am holding FLE for at least half year till April 2006 when FLE report its fisical year end.

Fleetwood Enterprises may well earn a profit this fiscal year (ends April, 2006). The company has been in a downward spiral due to issues with unsold inventory, and has reported sizable losses in the past three quarters. Analyst believe the bulk of the associated restructuring has been dealt with and, aside from the travel trailer segment (discussed below), the RV and manufactured housing segments will now be profitable. This result should be obtainable largely because of significant cost-cutting and employee reductions. Furthermore, hurricane-driven demand (also highlighted below) augurs well for the quarter. Analysts' fiscal 2005 earnings estimate of $0.10 a share represents a considerable improvement from last year's loss; and it would mark the first fiscal year of profitability since 1999.

New products could brighten the picture for the travel trailer division. The segment remains one of the largest challenges to revamp, but Fleetwood's recent introduction of new products should help. Indeed, it indicated that dealer reactions to the new ultralight, hybrid, and traditional products are proving positive. While analysts don't expect the segment to rebound overnight, a successful product launch augurs well for an eventual turnaround.

Hurricane-driven demand could prove quite positive for Fleetwood. Following the tragic onslaught of hurricanes this season, a number of the company's products could see a significant rise in demand. Given the large number of people displaced, demand for temporary shelter, both manufactured housing and RVs, could be quite sizable. Furthermore, permanent rebuilding could drive sales through 2006. Although the possibilities seem quite promising, analysts' estimates are very conservative. They assume most business will be given to the industry leaders, given Fleetwood's current struggles. The upside could, however, be significant.


First Call holding a "Strong Buy" sentiment on FLE with mean target $15.

P/E Ratio 41.33
Consensus Recommendation Strong Buy
5 Year Growth Rate -6.04

Mean 15.00 # of Price Targets 3
High 16.00 # Raised this Week 1
Low 14.00 # Lowered this Week 0

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Big deal: DELL, EMC TO EXPAND LINE .
ROBERT WEISMAN
114 words
13 January 2006

Computer giant Dell Inc. plans to expand its alliance with Hopkinton's EMC Corp. in the data storage equipment business, Kevin B. Rollins, Dell's president, said yesterday after addressing Boston College's Chief Executives Club.

Rollins, a former Boston-based management consultant for Bain Inc., said Dell and EMC agreed last month to roll out a new line of cobranded storage products this summer across a broad range of markets.

The two companies have been offering cobranded storage gear only in the midrange market, although Dell also resells high-end EMC products. EMC last fall said the Dell partnership represented 11 percent of its revenues.

IMO: this is what the analysts expecting for. Dell expand its data storage with EMC will bring EMC tremedous revenue in 2006. Check back my previous research on EMC and you will find that investors are waiting for this badly. Finally Dell agree to expand the business with EMC.

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EMC on the bottom now, two days flat price move with large volume showing the MM is building its position here. With all the good news from analysts and contracts, we will see EMC move higher since next week.

http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/13/hewlett-packard-hp-seagate-technology-0113markets07.html?partner=yahootix

EMC (nyse: EMC - news - people ) also remains one of the analyst's top picks. "A multiple drop of 9 points in 2005 should put EMC in a position to finally capture most of its earnings growth, with the multiple, for the first time in the last three years, finally below EMC's normalized earning growth, yielding stock appreciation of at least 20%," the analyst noted.

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Hillman's focus on the long term means watching for trends. He likes computer storage and data management companies because of increasing regulatory pressure to store and recall original data. His favorite is EMC (nyse: EMC - news - people ), with its 20% market share. "To compete in this space you really need secure, end-to-end solutions," Hillman says. "EMC has had a few years' lead on every competitor."

Hardware. Health care. Homebuilders. Mark Hillman pinpoints undervalued companies in a variety of industries that his firm believes will become leaders in the long run.

Same as my pick. EMC: Hardware, Healthcare: HLTH, Homebuilders: CHB, FLE.

http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/18/hillman-investing-streettalk-cz_rl_0118streettalklander.html?partner=yahootix

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RES: my target is around $40-50, oilfield equipment companies on average traded around $50. RES is a very solid company with wide business moat. When oil price goes up, RES up. When oil price down, RES stable. RES is not like those pure oil stocks, such as ABLE, GEOI, NGAS which are sensitive to oil price and risky. RES is relative stable and less volatility.

I picked RES when it was $23. You can not find a better oilfield company better than it.

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In TUES here. Technical favor trade.
With the holidays come and gone, retailers have passed their biggest rush of the year. What remains is often overstocked and out of style. Last week, the top-performing stock pickers at Marketocracy bought shares of Tuesday Morning, which sells closeout merchandise, gifts and housewares, in its retail stores.

Tuesday Morning at $20.66 per share, or 13.9-times earnings, is trading at its cheapest levels of the year. The company's early January announcement that its fourth-quarter same-store sales were down 5.3% and its earnings per share were down 4.5% to 84 cents per share didn't help matters much. But on that news, the stock price only dipped below $20 for one day before snapping back--showing strong resistance. With resistance on bad news and with the closeout-merchandise season starting, the M100 opened a sizable new position in the stock.

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Disclaim:
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