posted
Agree 100% All you hear from the talking heads is that inflation needs to rise and there hasn't been enough.. That's the problem, no inflation. Riiight...
Please explain to me that a gallon of name brand milk here is $6/gallon and we haven't seen massive inflation.
This is due to exactly the dollar printing that has gone on. All while wages are permanently depressed.
Used to be there was a yearly cost of living increase in wages at most decent sized companies. Now? That's all been stopped just so those same companies can stay afloat.
Then add healthcare insurance laws which doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled everyone's premiums? My cost for insuring my wife and two kids was around $300/month a few years ago. That spiked in this last year to $900/month. I'm not the only one and this is why the system will implode.
To me when I try to visualize this scenario, all I see is something akin to the perfect storm.
The market is primed for a massive drop, referenced above in the chart. Massive inflation in goods and consumables. Derivatives bubble that poses a real bank run threat. The threat of negative interest rates on deposits. Looming war between WWIII level countries.
posted
China designated a clearing bank in Seoul for yuan transactions in South Korea on Friday, coinciding with a visit by President Xi Jinping, as Beijing promotes greater use of its currency overseas, AFP reports.
China's central bank has authorised the Bank of Communications, the country's fifth largest lender, to undertake yuan clearing business in the South Korean capital, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement.
posted
“The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated… The trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on .”
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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Did the “central banks’ central bank” just call for a stock-market collapse? By NotQuant on June 30, 2014 in BIS, Central Banks, Federal Reserve, IMF, Monetary Policy
Don’t look now, but the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is often referred to as the “central banks’ central bank”, just advised the world’s central banks to stage a market collapse now rather than later.
“Financial markets have been exuberant over the past year, at least in advanced economies, dancing mainly to the tune of central bank decisions. … Growth has disappointed even as financial markets have roared: The transmission chain seems to be badly impaired. … Over time, policies lose their effectiveness and may end up fostering the very conditions they seek to prevent”.
“Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer. Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms,” …
“The road ahead may be a long one. All the more reason, then, to start the journey sooner rather than later.”
posted
i have never been able to confirm the validity of this statement even though i have tried for a couple of years, but if this is true? then we are really forked...
Can the Fed’s equity capital of $56 billion — yes, the Fed is leveraged 77 to 1 — be wiped out? A mere 1.3 percent change in the value of those $4.3 trillion in bonds would theoretically wipe out the Fed’s equity. Can the Fed go down the tubes, in the same way that Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch did?
simple answer - no brainer
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
The answer is yes. Your other goal of verifying Fed records? Good luck pal, we still don't know 100% who owns the Fed... after 101 years.
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: “The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated… The trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on .”
I'm going to spend a great deal of time trying... desperately trying, with all I have, to not tell you I was right in late 2008, and you were wrong.
luvya pal, but we should have let it crash back then.
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posted
greed malice ineptitude it takes all three. remeber there's a loser in every trade. somebody is paying too much for stock again and has been since we passed 13,500
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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Loser in every trade? 90% of all trades nowadays are HFT algos = there are no losers.. Unless you're the software engineer on a down day.
Paying too much for stocks? = The ones buying stocks are the ones printing the money.. Buy something for free and tell me you paid too much.
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quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: I suppose it depends upon perspective.
Loser in every trade? 90% of all trades nowadays are HFT algos = there are no losers.. Unless you're the software engineer on a down day.
Paying too much for stocks? = The ones buying stocks are the ones printing the money.. Buy something for free and tell me you paid too much.
i agree about the algorythms and what is happening a the market..
i dont even count what's been going as REAL. that's my whole point. the bankers or whoever that has run the market to these ridiculous new highs are tradng amongst eahc other for hte most part. they have paper gains now, and they have used "free money" formteh FED to do it. so the system is choked with "fake" money that represents nothing other than IOU. They need us retailers/consumes to buy the their fake paer form them before they lose access to all that "free" money from Quantitative easing...
the same is true in the commodities market. that's why hamburger cost 5$ a pound and bacon is worse.
the stupidity of what they have done is even more breathtaking than the way they crashed it in '08.
even tho all that sounds like total gloom and doom? human nature is that we always somehow find a way out our messes (until we don't) it's a product of natural selection....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
did we ever have the "double bottom" on the crash? i didn't see it. so when is the second bottom and will it match the first bottom? that's question that really matters.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: did we ever have the "double bottom" on the crash? i didn't see it. so when is the second bottom and will it match the first bottom? that's question that really matters.
No, no double bottom, just a verification of the lowering support line. This support line is ever decreasing and the longer it takes to get there the worse it will be. Assuming the DJIA reverses and starts it's way towards that support now? We're looking at DJIA somewhere around $4,000 before we see the real test.
The real test will be to see if it collapses through support, which the pattern itself implies it will.
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posted
i see the support. i find it hard to imagine finding that again, but hten i was not expecting the last low we hit to be as low as it was either. i see raisng minumaum wages as par tof the solution to finding the support the bankers have to have.
i know that everyone has their own specific insights intot he "right and wrong" of minimum wages. i persoanlly am not for them. BUT. policy makers don't look at individual moral issues. raise the min. wages and people will have money to buy the stock from the FED (they own it via proxy)
the solution sucks. i know i knew it when they began the bailout, but i also know that people will always be dumebr then we WANT htem to be...
those algo-trade as you call them? we sat here and watched the birth of those things together. the programs are written by humans and they execute brainlessly... somebody will have to pull the plug...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: Raising minimum wage nation wide to something like $15/hr will kill the economy in an instant.
Bammycare itself crippled the economy... not killed, but merely crippled.
We are weeks to few months from knowing what the cause will be.
i know what you are saying, and i told you i see the hazzard. these policymakers will not just fold and change their lifestyles tho thier entire existence is based on the IOU's
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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If the whole thing collapses tomorrow, they will use it to consolidate power... as they've always done.
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My perception is there is a bloodline that reaches back millennial, and those are the elite. (Likely further than that as I am 100% convinced we've been here before and blown ourselves up many many many times)
ETA: I do agree that there might be some ebb and flow of skillsets.
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i see dynasties built and toppled. The civil war toppled alot of dynaties. My wif'es family blood is dynastic german but WW1 wiped them out. they came here. my family is wagon builders from germany circa 1700 resettled in the Charlotte NC area and about half the people in nascar (actauly the nascar of 25 years ago)are very loosely related to me....
i agree that there are families in banking that are very old, but keeping power is just as hard as getting it in the first place...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
No not those two chuckleheads, though I'm sure they share some branch of "the" bloodline, or at the least they surrender to it's "guidance". Clearly that's true when one looks at the operating system Gates made compared to an open source platform. M$ is horrible, enslavement BS aimed at idiots... Just like what we see from current societal systems.
I would disagree that seizing power is as hard as keeping power. I would argue that keeping power is much easier. The idiots are eager to be told what to believe. They crave it.. This is why there is such a desire for "leadership". They're too stupid to do it on their own. They haven't the wit and they search for it in another.
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"Mr Caruana said the international system is in many ways more fragile than it was in the build-up to the Lehman crisis. Debt ratios in the developed economies have risen by 20 percentage points to 275pc of GDP since then."
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thier entire existence is based on the IOU's
