This is topic What is a Megaphone Top Pattern - More importantly - What does it mean? in forum Off-Topic Post, Non Stock Talk at Allstocks.com's Bulletin Board.
When looking at charts, always start with the largest time frame possible.. See the pattern forming over the last decade and a half? No? Let's zoom in a bit then:
Ahh, there it is. With nice trend lines thrown in to help the eye.
I really started looking at this maybe a year or more ago. I knew I'd seen that pattern somewhere before but just couldn't put my finger on what it was, or what it was called. I had a gut feeling about what it meant, but needed confirmation. So I went searching and searching. Sometime last December I finally figured it out.
Finally found what it was called.
Megaphone Top Pattern
What is a megaphone top pattern you ask?
A Megaphone Top is a relatively rare formation and is also known as a Broadening Top. Its shape is opposite to that of a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern develops after a strong advance in a stock price and can last several weeks or even a few months.
In this case we are looking at a monthly chart, so the longevity of the pattern is expanded much further. In fact it has taken well over a decade to form.
What are the implications?
Well that's why I'm posting it here in the off topic board.
Has the $DJIA ever had a true trend reversal? Not based on that chart.. and that's the entire life of the index.
What does a trend reversal mean to us?
What is in the news currently which might aid the completion of this pattern? Russia, China, Iran, all starting to trade in currencies other than the dollar. That's one The FED starting to talk about finally raising rates. That's two Banks in the states starting entertain the notion of negative rates on deposits, thereby ensuring a bank run nation wide. That's three Bammy opening the borders to an influx of minimum skill, illiterate invaders right when realunemployment is at an all-time high. That's four Shall I go on? Nah, you get the idea.
Posted by Relentless. on :
The creation of the pattern reflects a period of time when bulls and bears are battling to gain control of the stock. The pattern occurs after the bulls have been charging and driving the stock price appreciably higher. During the formation of the Megaphone Top, however, bears are exerting increasing influence on the stock and causing it to set a series of lower lows. The increasing volatility eventually creates a sense of uncertainty, leads to profit-taking, and deters some of the bulls from making any further commitments.
The bears eventually triumph."
Does that sound familiar? It should because it explains the last decade and a half of the DJIA. We will call the "Bulls" in this case The FED. The ever-printing Fed... The "Bears" would be just about everyone else.
Posted by glassman on :
The creation of the pattern reflects a period of time when bulls and bears are battling to gain control of the stock. The pattern occurs after the bulls have been charging and driving the stock price appreciably higher. During the formation of the Megaphone Top, however, bears are exerting increasing influence on the stock and causing it to set a series of lower lows. The increasing volatility eventually creates a sense of uncertainty, leads to profit-taking, and deters some of the bulls from making any further commitments.
The bears eventually triumph."
Does that sound familiar? It should because it explains the last decade and a half of the DJIA. We will call the "Bulls" in this case The FED. The ever-printing Fed... The "Bears" would be just about everyone else.
i am thinking about Costa Rica......
Posted by Relentless. on :
lol.. Hey pal, did I explain what I was hinting about earlier correctly?
Nah, good ole MS is the place to be when TSHTF.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: lol.. Hey pal, did I explain what I was hinting about earlier correctly?
Nah, good ole MS is the place to be when TSHTF.
yeah i realise that it can't get much worse here, right?
the Delta is not like the rest of MS. maybe i can make a few extra bucks (and get fist crack a the gleanings) guarding the fields whne the TSHTF.... I won't live here without AC... I've lived in planty of hot places without AC, but not the Delta, that's just crazy.... i have to admit that i was able to do alright when the housing bu tthat's only cuz they been in a permanent state of collapse here since about 1860.... funny thing is? i ain't no yankee, but they take rebel to whole new level here
Posted by Relentless. on :
Yeah, the delta is a whole nother animal.
I definitely wouldn't want to be there. The coast isn't too bad, but it is still somewhat depressed economically.
I've been watching the pattern in the dow for some time. Since about December it has been sliding up the ascending trend line. Waiting for the inevitable...
Posted by CashCowMoo on :
DJIA closes at 16,900+. Unbelievavle, this thing gonna go pop soon and it will probably be worse than when Bush was in office. Especially with the surge in the border crisis.
Posted by Pagan on :
quote:Originally posted by CashCowMoo: DJIA closes at 16,900+. Unbelievavle, this thing gonna go pop soon and it will probably be worse than when Bush was in office. Especially with the surge in the border crisis.
Just curious...but was the "Border crisis" have to do with the DJIA in your opinion? I don't see the connection.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Pagan:
quote:Originally posted by CashCowMoo: DJIA closes at 16,900+. Unbelievavle, this thing gonna go pop soon and it will probably be worse than when Bush was in office. Especially with the surge in the border crisis.
Just curious...but was the "Border crisis" have to do with the DJIA in your opinion? I don't see the connection.
Curious to this as well...You think the "Border Crisis" is the catalyst to crack a market that is reflecting coordinated, global central bank printing???
Posted by Relentless. on :
The border crisis as it's being called now... I would say the effects on the market would be long term more than near term.
I'm not sure what the catalyst will be... I thought maybe Syria almost a year ago, but the pattern wasn't mature then. Kinda figured Ukraine now that the pattern is mature.. Derivatives implosion maybe?
Crap I'd be willing to settle for a good ole fashioned asteroid at this point.
The anticipation is killing me lol
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: The border crisis as it's being called now... I would say the effects on the market would be long term more than near term.
I'm not sure what the catalyst will be... I thought maybe Syria almost a year ago, but the pattern wasn't mature then. Kinda figured Ukraine now that the pattern is mature.. Derivatives implosion maybe?
Crap I'd be willing to settle for a good ole fashioned asteroid at this point.
The anticipation is killing me lol
First off...Your initial post is one of the best I have seen here in a long time. Seriously, well done...I wish there was more of this here...
As to the catalyst, I think you hit it earlier...Once rates go up, the music stops jmo...With margin debt levels near all time highs, I think most will be surprised at just how small and crowded the exit door is gonna be...They will use the Mega caps to mask the initial distribution but the high betas and Russell will tell us when the party is over...Jmo
Posted by Relentless. on :
Thanks HV, I've missed me posting here on good ole Allstocks as well. More so, I've missed an Allstocks who understood what I was saying.
I think it's rates, possibly, but I'm watching what Russia China, Brazil, India, and Iran are doing with their trade. All of them are moving away from the buck. For us here at home this can be a horrible thing. Hell we've conquered almost the whole middle east because of it. All wars fought in the last two decades by us were directly related to that supposed "enemy" making any move towards trading, primarily oil, in something other than the dollar.
Well now we're faced with supposed "enemies" (which we cannot defeat militarily) who are doing the same. The threat is huge.
Add the inevitable, yet ever witless, rate hike?
To add further clarification
With or without the dominance of the dollar worldwide, what we are about to see is the first real cycle of a fiat currency's life. Fiat currencies are inherently evil in that it is pure bondage. Only those who make the currency own anything. Are there any pro's to a fiat currency? Yes, actually in it's infancy it furthers massive economic growth. The "American Dream" of the last century is a prime example.
That expansion can only continue for so long before the saturation that you hinted at occurs. This is the point at which the controlling authority retracts the flow of currency, via rate hikes in this case, and the currency implodes. Only to be renewed again.
So what am I saying?
I'm saying.. It's the perfect storm. All of the BRIC's are ACTIVELY moving to dump the buck. Our own satanic/criminal FED about to raise rates/restrict currency flow. Unimaginably hot flashpoints for WWIII are about to blow i.e. China/Japan, Russia/USA-Ukraine, USA-ISIS/Middle-East... The list goes on.
Add all of this together? Yikes
Edit to Add:
I intentionally did not add North Korea.. No one likes that little pygmy pot bellied pig, and we don't care how mad he gets about it. That little idiot is not allowed to start anything major. Little prik.
Posted by Relentless. on :
DJIA just touched $17,000 on moderate to low volume. HFT algos all the way.
Still under the trendline though.
Posted by buckstalker on :
Nuff said about whats going to happen....inevitable IMO
Question is...how do we protect what we have? Gold...Silver...Bullets... What Else?
Posted by Relentless. on :
How do we protect what we have??? Wit Buckstalker, you and I know this to be true.
Wit alone is the only thing we have.
It is the only thing we truly posses anymore.
Let's assume, as I have, we are far from repairing an already demonic system:
For me I carry a .45 at all times. Wife is armed with a .40 My oldest is capable of firing both. The youngest.. well she'll fn question you to death if need be.. Holy fn hel with the questions.. ugh.
Yeah I know it doesn't make sense because a .40 has more "felt" recoil than a .45.. shut up I kmow, but for now it works.
Land.. Land is the real answer with all of my sarcasm aside. Doesn't matter how much gold you have. No one cares about silver when they're hungry. Land.. Ability to create food... That's all that matters.
Posted by IWISHIHAD on :
If it ever gets as bad as your suggesting, land will do you no good unless you have a super stronghold, with lots of big weapons and the manpower to handle them.
Good Luck.
Posted by Pagan on :
quote:Originally posted by IWISHIHAD: If it ever gets as bad as your suggesting, land will do you no good unless you have a super stronghold, with lots of big weapons and the manpower to handle them.
Good Luck.
Glassman said silver is the way to go if I remember correctly. Not that I agree. I would be more apt to stock food, ammo, and salt.
Posted by IWISHIHAD on :
Food,water,salt, video camers, generators, gas, mines, machine guns, droans, anti tank weapons, etc.
But if it doesn't happpen or if they find out you stockpiling these items, make sure you have a good lawyer at hand, the anti terroist guys will be by to arrest you. Good luck again.
By the way, Have A Good 4Th Of July.
Posted by Upside on :
I'll be stockpiling women. If the chit really hits the fan they'll be a form of "currency" unlike any other.
Posted by raybond on :
stockpile woman it might not work but you will be happy for sure.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: DJIA just touched $17,000 on moderate to low volume. HFT algos all the way.
Still under the trendline though.
Just another day at the office Relentless, smash the VIX and let the Algos take care of the rest...Saw some weakness in a few key names today though...We are close, short term anyways...jmo
VIX @ 52 wk lows (10.30's) and the SPY at the top of the channel. So much complacency out there. Still waiting for that blowoff top before loading long term puts...jmo
Posted by Relentless. on :
Said this a while back (not here), volatility will drop to almost nothing as we nestle up to the trend line. Then poof.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by Upside: I'll be stockpiling women. If the chit really hits the fan they'll be a form of "currency" unlike any other.
You're not thinking this through, pal.
Are you honestly prepared to ALWAYS BE WRONG?
plus
You'll never see the inside of a bathroom again.
Posted by Upside on :
I already have one telling me I'm always wrong so what would it would matter if a gaggle of them told me the same thing?
I'll have to think about the bathroom situation though.
Posted by Relentless. on :
You can ignore one.
Not a gaggle
Posted by buckstalker on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: How do we protect what we have??? Wit Buckstalker, you and I know this to be true.
Wit alone is the only thing we have.
It is the only thing we truly posses anymore.
Let's assume, as I have, we are far from repairing an already demonic system:
For me I carry a .45 at all times. Wife is armed with a .40 My oldest is capable of firing both. The youngest.. well she'll fn question you to death if need be.. Holy fn hel with the questions.. ugh.
Yeah I know it doesn't make sense because a .40 has more "felt" recoil than a .45.. shut up I kmow, but for now it works.
Land.. Land is the real answer with all of my sarcasm aside. Doesn't matter how much gold you have. No one cares about silver when they're hungry. Land.. Ability to create food... That's all that matters.
I carry a 45 myself...nothing better if you want to end a fight real quick...
My wife and kids are all excellent shooters and my 12 year old grandson shot his first buck last year at 120 yards with a 20 ga smoothbore
As far as food goes...I'm pretty handy at killing or catching whatever it is I need to eat...
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Upside: I already have one telling me I'm always wrong so what would it would matter if a gaggle of them told me the same thing?
I'll have to think about the bathroom situation though.
build a heated outhouse, i garantee they'll leave you alone there
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by IWISHIHAD: If it ever gets as bad as your suggesting, land will do you no good unless you have a super stronghold, with lots of big weapons and the manpower to handle them.
Good Luck.
that's why i couldn't stay in So Cali. Too many people and no natural resources to speak of...
Posted by glassman on :
can you imagine if ten million people filed this next april?
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman:
quote:Originally posted by IWISHIHAD: If it ever gets as bad as your suggesting, land will do you no good unless you have a super stronghold, with lots of big weapons and the manpower to handle them.
Good Luck.
that's why i couldn't stay in So Cali. Too many people and no natural resources to speak of...
If my perception is accurate and that pattern is a bearish reversal pattern... Yup California or any major populated area is the last place I would want to be.
Posted by glassman on :
don't get me wrong, i loved living there, but i could never get over the feeling that it was all borrowed. cuz it is. even the water.
Posted by raybond on :
It would have to get pretty damn bad for me to ever leave CA. this place is just to beautiful and to many fun things to do.
If it gets as bad as you folks say it will I have 2 places to go and one is completely self sufficient and the other will be by next year. Thanks to the stock market and hard work.
Posted by raybond on :
It would have to get pretty damn bad for me to ever leave CA. this place is just to beautiful and to many fun things to do.
If it gets as bad as you folks say it will I have 2 places to go and one is completely self sufficient and the other will be by next year. Thanks to the stock market and hard work.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Well, Ray if the pattern completes, then the next low will be somewhere in the $4,000's. That is quite significant and would be indicative of a major economic issue... Whatever that issue is.
Posted by glassman on :
the real issue is that "they" didn't fix the real problem with the economy. "they" didn't even try. they literally just printed cash and made it almost free to the banks. the banks bought into the market, and riased it artificially. so now the banks have to sell their stock and take profits or keep prinitng cahs to buy more until everybody starts buying stocks from the banks. What i have never been able to discover is the actaul margin ratios the banks have allowed themselves. i repeat allowed themsleves
there is a deadline involved here:
Banks are required to hold an amount of highly-liquid assets, such as cash or Treasury bonds, equal to or greater than their net cash over a 30 day period (having at least 100% coverage). The liquidity coverage ratio started to be regulated and measured in 2011, but the full 100% minimum won't be enforced until 2015.
remeber that there was also an asset evaluation rule (accounting) change back in '08 that was one of several significant underlying triggers of last collapse.
in the end? the final straws that break the back are always general public perception. but general public perception is one of considerable distrust already right now. we never saw a real "run" on the banks last time because "they" printed plenty of cash,( Jamie Dimon got his ahnds on all he wanted and more) but you can't keep doing that... fundamnetlas have never really changed since... in fact? the only real change has been infaltion without signifaicant earnings increases to accomodate it. whenever i go shopping now, i get a serious sense of very unhappy people and it's cuz costs are not being offset with raises in pay... in fact pay is more or less down.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Agree 100% All you hear from the talking heads is that inflation needs to rise and there hasn't been enough.. That's the problem, no inflation. Riiight...
Please explain to me that a gallon of name brand milk here is $6/gallon and we haven't seen massive inflation.
This is due to exactly the dollar printing that has gone on. All while wages are permanently depressed.
Used to be there was a yearly cost of living increase in wages at most decent sized companies. Now? That's all been stopped just so those same companies can stay afloat.
Then add healthcare insurance laws which doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled everyone's premiums? My cost for insuring my wife and two kids was around $300/month a few years ago. That spiked in this last year to $900/month. I'm not the only one and this is why the system will implode.
To me when I try to visualize this scenario, all I see is something akin to the perfect storm.
The market is primed for a massive drop, referenced above in the chart. Massive inflation in goods and consumables. Derivatives bubble that poses a real bank run threat. The threat of negative interest rates on deposits. Looming war between WWIII level countries.
Yikes.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Posted by Relentless. on :
China designated a clearing bank in Seoul for yuan transactions in South Korea on Friday, coinciding with a visit by President Xi Jinping, as Beijing promotes greater use of its currency overseas, AFP reports.
China's central bank has authorised the Bank of Communications, the country's fifth largest lender, to undertake yuan clearing business in the South Korean capital, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement.
It all changed after Libya. Russia has finally had enough and they are the tipping point.
What we are seeing in the story above is directly induced from their movements.
Land and bullets my friends.
Posted by glassman on :
“The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated… The trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on .”
Posted by glassman on :
the Mother of all bubles? yeah this is it-
Did the “central banks’ central bank” just call for a stock-market collapse? By NotQuant on June 30, 2014 in BIS, Central Banks, Federal Reserve, IMF, Monetary Policy
Don’t look now, but the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is often referred to as the “central banks’ central bank”, just advised the world’s central banks to stage a market collapse now rather than later.
“Financial markets have been exuberant over the past year, at least in advanced economies, dancing mainly to the tune of central bank decisions. … Growth has disappointed even as financial markets have roared: The transmission chain seems to be badly impaired. … Over time, policies lose their effectiveness and may end up fostering the very conditions they seek to prevent”.
“Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer. Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms,” …
“The road ahead may be a long one. All the more reason, then, to start the journey sooner rather than later.”
i have never been able to confirm the validity of this statement even though i have tried for a couple of years, but if this is true? then we are really forked...
Can the Fed’s equity capital of $56 billion — yes, the Fed is leveraged 77 to 1 — be wiped out? A mere 1.3 percent change in the value of those $4.3 trillion in bonds would theoretically wipe out the Fed’s equity. Can the Fed go down the tubes, in the same way that Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch did?
simple answer - no brainer
Posted by Relentless. on :
The answer is yes. Your other goal of verifying Fed records? Good luck pal, we still don't know 100% who owns the Fed... after 101 years.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: “The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated… The trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on .”
I'm going to spend a great deal of time trying... desperately trying, with all I have, to not tell you I was right in late 2008, and you were wrong.
luvya pal, but we should have let it crash back then.
Posted by glassman on :
i didn't expect them to bail this much.
Posted by glassman on :
for some strange reason? i expect people to actually learn from their mistakes.
Posted by Relentless. on :
"People"
We're not talking about "people"
Que the David Icke videos.. now... (reference, not literal)
What did I used to say?
Malice, not ineptitude.
Posted by glassman on :
greed malice ineptitude it takes all three. remeber there's a loser in every trade. somebody is paying too much for stock again and has been since we passed 13,500
Posted by Relentless. on :
I suppose it depends upon perspective.
Loser in every trade? 90% of all trades nowadays are HFT algos = there are no losers.. Unless you're the software engineer on a down day.
Paying too much for stocks? = The ones buying stocks are the ones printing the money.. Buy something for free and tell me you paid too much.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: I suppose it depends upon perspective.
Loser in every trade? 90% of all trades nowadays are HFT algos = there are no losers.. Unless you're the software engineer on a down day.
Paying too much for stocks? = The ones buying stocks are the ones printing the money.. Buy something for free and tell me you paid too much.
i agree about the algorythms and what is happening a the market..
i dont even count what's been going as REAL. that's my whole point. the bankers or whoever that has run the market to these ridiculous new highs are tradng amongst eahc other for hte most part. they have paper gains now, and they have used "free money" formteh FED to do it. so the system is choked with "fake" money that represents nothing other than IOU. They need us retailers/consumes to buy the their fake paer form them before they lose access to all that "free" money from Quantitative easing...
the same is true in the commodities market. that's why hamburger cost 5$ a pound and bacon is worse.
the stupidity of what they have done is even more breathtaking than the way they crashed it in '08.
even tho all that sounds like total gloom and doom? human nature is that we always somehow find a way out our messes (until we don't) it's a product of natural selection....
Posted by glassman on :
did we ever have the "double bottom" on the crash? i didn't see it. so when is the second bottom and will it match the first bottom? that's question that really matters.
Posted by glassman on :
looking at twenty year charts gives me heartburn...
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: did we ever have the "double bottom" on the crash? i didn't see it. so when is the second bottom and will it match the first bottom? that's question that really matters.
No, no double bottom, just a verification of the lowering support line. This support line is ever decreasing and the longer it takes to get there the worse it will be. Assuming the DJIA reverses and starts it's way towards that support now? We're looking at DJIA somewhere around $4,000 before we see the real test.
The real test will be to see if it collapses through support, which the pattern itself implies it will.
Posted by glassman on :
i see the support. i find it hard to imagine finding that again, but hten i was not expecting the last low we hit to be as low as it was either. i see raisng minumaum wages as par tof the solution to finding the support the bankers have to have.
i know that everyone has their own specific insights intot he "right and wrong" of minimum wages. i persoanlly am not for them. BUT. policy makers don't look at individual moral issues. raise the min. wages and people will have money to buy the stock from the FED (they own it via proxy)
the solution sucks. i know i knew it when they began the bailout, but i also know that people will always be dumebr then we WANT htem to be...
those algo-trade as you call them? we sat here and watched the birth of those things together. the programs are written by humans and they execute brainlessly... somebody will have to pull the plug...
Posted by Relentless. on :
Raising minimum wage nation wide to something like $15/hr will kill the economy in an instant.
Bammycare itself crippled the economy... not killed, but merely crippled.
We are weeks to few months from knowing what the cause will be.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: Raising minimum wage nation wide to something like $15/hr will kill the economy in an instant.
Bammycare itself crippled the economy... not killed, but merely crippled.
We are weeks to few months from knowing what the cause will be.
i know what you are saying, and i told you i see the hazzard. these policymakers will not just fold and change their lifestyles tho thier entire existence is based on the IOU's
Posted by Relentless. on :
The elite will always be the elite.
If the whole thing collapses tomorrow, they will use it to consolidate power... as they've always done.
Posted by glassman on :
i agree to certain extent. there is considerable ebb and flow as to who the elite are what their particular skillsets are...
Posted by Relentless. on :
I don't agree with that 100%.
My perception is there is a bloodline that reaches back millennial, and those are the elite. (Likely further than that as I am 100% convinced we've been here before and blown ourselves up many many many times)
ETA: I do agree that there might be some ebb and flow of skillsets.
Posted by glassman on :
bill gates? warren buffet?
i see dynasties built and toppled. The civil war toppled alot of dynaties. My wif'es family blood is dynastic german but WW1 wiped them out. they came here. my family is wagon builders from germany circa 1700 resettled in the Charlotte NC area and about half the people in nascar (actauly the nascar of 25 years ago)are very loosely related to me....
i agree that there are families in banking that are very old, but keeping power is just as hard as getting it in the first place...
Posted by Relentless. on :
No not those two chuckleheads, though I'm sure they share some branch of "the" bloodline, or at the least they surrender to it's "guidance". Clearly that's true when one looks at the operating system Gates made compared to an open source platform. M$ is horrible, enslavement BS aimed at idiots... Just like what we see from current societal systems.
I would disagree that seizing power is as hard as keeping power. I would argue that keeping power is much easier. The idiots are eager to be told what to believe. They crave it.. This is why there is such a desire for "leadership". They're too stupid to do it on their own. They haven't the wit and they search for it in another.
Posted by Relentless. on :
"Mr Caruana said the international system is in many ways more fragile than it was in the build-up to the Lehman crisis. Debt ratios in the developed economies have risen by 20 percentage points to 275pc of GDP since then."
Umm.. No sht?
This folks is what we call "Foreshadowing".
Got bullets?
Posted by Relentless. on :
Still drawing trendlines.. But I think this pattern went from bearish reversal to continuation..
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
thier entire existence is based on the IOU's