posted
ebola was studied by both US and Russian scientists for biowarfare and basically found to be unfit becuase it is too effiient at killing. the reason the world hasn't seen a full-blown ebola epidemic before now is that it kills too fast. In order to spread, a pathogen needs to have some "infectious" time between infection and "immobilization" of it's victim in order to spread. Something has changed. I don't beleive most of what they are saying on TV, but i do know that the "best health care system in the world" is not up to this challenge like most Americans want to beleive.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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-------------------- It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. Posts: 3311 | From: St. Louis | Registered: Feb 2005
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for the record, you can repost this in say six months. we'll see then if i am fear mongering or being pragmatic..
fact is? ebola killed too fast for it to spread effectively just ten years ago.. the Soviets and the US (at Plum Island and other more secreetive labs) studied it intensively cuz it's a good killer. something is different now and i am not in position to know exaclty what it is that's dieffernt.
should you be afraid? i dunno do YOU frequently come in contact with sick peoples bodily fluids/ i don't - i'm not worried about myself, but i also know ofr afact that APHIS (USDA enforcemnt branch) just went and completely flunked the CDC for being carelss in their daily operations. This is real test, this is not a drill and we are NOT prepared like people want to beleive we are. You can take that statement and do what you want with it. The planet is due for a pandemic anyway, ebola is not likely to be the next pandemic, it will most likely be a swine/bird flu hybrid....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
my wife was working with the mosquito that carries West Nile Virus beofre WNV cameto the US. She made several major breakthroughs that coincided with the arrival of WNV. Instead of supporting her research and allowing her to follow those break throughs, the politicians got involved and redirected thier buddies into the projects. My wife has not been ALLOWED by directive to work with skeeters since. WNV has not been slowed down in th eleast by the current researchers adn people die regualrly from it. Could my wife have stoped it? NO! i'm not saying that. But what i am saying is that when the media gets ahold of this stuff, and the money starts to flow, the politics takes over and the real research gets buried. Ebola is a big unknown.
Vector. The natural reservoir for Ebola is unknown. Epidemiologists have tested bats, monkeys, spiders and ticks for the virus, but have not been able to acquire definitive data. Common factors indicate that the natural reservoir is part of rural Africa, and CDC tests have shown that 10% of all Asian and African monkeys have antibodies to filoviruses. However, because the virus is as pathogenic in nonhuman primates as it is in humans, it is highly unlikely that monkeys themselves are a reservoir. It is speculated that persistent mammalian infection may help maintain the virus in nature, but that the natural reservoir is more likely to be a long-lived arthropod associated with the monkeys.
Secondary spread of the disease is via contact with infected persons or contact with blood, secretions, or excretions of infected persons. However, contact between viremic persons results in infection rates of approximately 10% ---such contact is not an efficient form of viral transmission. Infection via contact during the incubation period is rare. In contrast, nosocomial transmission is extremely dangerous. In all epidemics, nosocomial transmission, via contaminated syringes or needles, was responsible for a significant number of deaths.
In a small number of cases of the Zaire and Sudan strains, patients did not have contact with the blood or body fluids of other viremic patients. In these few cases, it is possible that the patients contracted the virus via aerosol transmission. Although the Zaire and Sudan strains are not usually passed from human to human by aerosol, the Reston strain is transmitted via small-particle aerosol between monkeys and from monkeys to humans. In addition, Ebola Zaire and Marburg virus have been isolated from the alveoli of infected monkeys.
Viruses can persist in injection equipment, multidose medicine vials, or in dried material. The virus can also continue to be shed in the patient's semen for 3 or 4 months after symptoms disappear. In one case, the virus was isolated from the anterior chamber fluid of a uveitis patient.
we don't know ANYTHING about it's vectors and reservoirs and you can ignore 90% of what they try to tell you on TV.....
read this line again;
the natural reservoir is more likely to be a long-lived arthropod associated with the monkeys
that's waht we are really up against. most likely a bug that bites monkeys and people....
posted
if i was really interested in fear mongering? i would suggest that bed-bugs (which are endemic to Texas now) might be transmitting it between people... watch the media run with that
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
trypanosis from the tsetse fly? that's some screwed up stuff too.
i have to agree with you relentless, ebola is likely to take a huge toll in Africa and we may not be able to do ANYTHING about it.
something is differnt this time, and i don't think it's only faster transportaion of humans...
maybe it lasts longer outside the body? or there's a new minor vector that bypasses human to human contact. i just hope that it's not bugs that are differnt cuz we really have a hard time contorlling them. DDT would have to be re-considered for short time if they are... since it's use was greatly restricted? it still works really really well...
fear-mongering? anybody here plannign on going tourist to Africa? I sure ain't.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
Yup, Africa is pretty much a write off at this point. And largely due to themselves. The locals have done nothing to prevent it and most don't believe it's real. Of course the nations affected have an average IQ less than 70... So that makes sense.
When I'm thinking about the possible impact to the states and things to be worried about, I tend not to really worry about the virus, but more the gubment's over-reaction to it.
Thus far they've been predictable in their reaction to the first case. They've been bungling inept and directionless. Now they're in full cover-up mode while issuing key-words and talking points to the MSM. A few steps later will be the over-reaction as they try to lock down entire towns or neighborhoods.
Just today count the number of times you hear the phrase "not airborne" on any news show.
The problem is they've already admitted it is in fact airborne to a degree. It just required a larger droplet than say the flu or common cold does.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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i hadn't seen that in speicifc but i did take notice early on when ebola didn't burn itself out like it usually does...
Someone on the other site I hang out on put it together. I ignored it at first... But then I happened across it again in late September and holy crap it was right in tune with the current numbers and has now exceeded the totals for October even ten days in...
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posted
whoever wrote that up may want to try thier hand at this one... i passed on it so i'm willing to share
ARPA Forecasting Chikungunya Challenge
TAGS: Computer Science/Information Technology, Scientific American, Math/Statistics, Nature, Public Good, Global Health, Life Sciences, RTP AWARD: See details | DEADLINE: 2/01/15 | ACTIVE SOLVERS: 387 | POSTED: 8/15/14
DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) seeks methods to accurately forecast the spread of chikungunya virus in the Caribbean, and North, Central, and South America.
This Challenge has a special award structure with awards of $150,000 and $100,000 for the top two overall Solvers and four honorable mention awards of $50,000 each. In addition, top Solvers in each Methodology Category (data, robustness, applicability, presentation, and computation) may win $10,000. The top six overall Solvers will be invited to DARPA for the Program Finale Meeting where they will participate in an interactive meeting to share best practices, collaborate, and facilitate continuing Solver community cohesion.
This is a Reduction-to-Practice Challenge that requires written documentation and multiple submissions of forecasts for the virus’ spread. Additionally, as a Prodigy Challenge an online leaderboard will be available to track Solver performance.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: so whoever wrote this up saw the .53 ratio of increase month to month.. i wonder where they got that number from so early?
It was an R1.7 to start with if I remember... There's been revisions but that was the one I saved. R2.x is what is being currently assumed I think.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: i caccklacked it in my usual dylsexic way that makes me more artist than scientist
.53 comes out to be 1.8 if you invert it...
Yeah that works.. I'm just using the terms the CDC uses.
Either way the accuracy thus far leads to some reflection looking forward.
The problem I see with the calculations is it's not a static environment. Meaning assuming the infection rate will be the same as it is in Africa? Silly.
The same could be said for much of Europe.
I would assume that as it continues in Africa the infection rate would jump over 2, possibly over 3. Europe and the US will barely get over 1 at the peak (which has yet to come).
The real concern, as far as the virus is concerned, is if or when Mexico gets it.
With idiot Bammy's open borders/Dreamers BS, Mexico could be the big issue.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Mexico is a serious concern, i'm most concerned that it could be used by terrorists. The "experts" keep getting on TV and telling what it *can't do* but they are not nearly as expert on this as they should be IMO. this commitment to "open borders" is not just Obama the Bush and the Clintons were too...
different motivations same results....
It all looked so easy int eh movies huh? Send in Dustin Hoffman in his rubber suit and he'll put the stupid politicians in their place? sorry, this time it's not fiction.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
one other thing? the cost per patient of ebola in the USA is going blow people minds when they find out... the cost of disposable suits adn decon of evrything they've been in contact with is going to be very high.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
There's been rumors in the conspiracy community that IS will attempt to hijack the virus.. I'm not so sure considering the main IS goal is to do what they're paid to do.. Get the US a reason to invade Syria.
If they are fingered for using it, then the CIA is behind it.
I'm thinking of this situation in more of an organic way. The virus at this point is a natural expansion which is why the math has worked out thus far.
As always, I could be completely wrong.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: one other thing? the cost per patient of ebola in the USA is going blow people minds when they find out... the cost of disposable suits adn decon of evrything they've been in contact with is going to be very high.
sht, not just that, but wait till all the health care workers quit.
Today during the CDC presser the guy said all of that hospital's ER services has been shut down due to staffing problems. Now they didn't go into the why, but there are two options - They all caught it They all quit.
It won't have to go very long before every nurse out there has to choose between her/his career and their kids.
Again, it's not the virus that concerns me.. It's the reaction to it.
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posted
here's a perfect example of why we are not really prepared to deal with real life scenarios in the US. i have no idea why this person thinks she is exempt form the basic rules, but int he last decade i have persoanlly witnessed too many Govt "officials" who behaved the same way to have any faith in our response to ebola.
Dr. Nancy Snyderman spotted at New Jersey restaurant during Ebola quarantine, draws health department crackdown The New Jersey Health Department issued a mandatory quarantine after NBC reporter Dr. Nancy Snyderman was reportedly seen getting takeout at a Hopewell eatery. The NBC News crew was placed in voluntary quarantine for 21 days after cameraman Ashoka Mukpo was stricken with Ebola in Liberia. BY Jason Molinet NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Monday, October 13, 2014, 1:41 AM
granted she is not a govt official, but the attitude is the same. She thinks she's a privileged character You do what we say and we do what we wanna do.....
this is not a drill people!
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
it's not common knowledge that more people die each year from Hospital Acquired Infections (HAI) than drug OD's and car wreck and gunshots COMBINED. This is normal everyday infection rates that happen in hospitals even though they are always supposedly on guard for this.... Ebola being what it is just underscores the problem we already had before it got here.
The CDC healthcare-associated infection (HAI) prevalence surveyExternal Web Site Icon provides an updated national estimate of the overall problem of HAIs in U.S. hospitals. Based on a large sample of U.S. acute care hospitals, the survey found that on any given day, about 1 in 25 hospital patients has at least one healthcare-associated infection. There were an estimated 722,000 HAIs in U.S acute care hospitals in 2011. About 75,000 hospital patients with HAIs died during their hospitalizations. More than half of all HAIs occurred outside of the intensive care unit.
Hospital-acquired infections dramatically increase trauma patients' risk of in-hospital death and hospital stay Research Activities, August 2011, No. 372
Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) are among the top five leading causes of death in the United States, striking 4.5 of every 100 patients admitted to the hospital. A new study finds that trauma patients who develop HAIs during treatment have up to six times the in-hospital mortality rate than similar patients without HAIs. It found that women were 30 percent less likely to have HAIs than men (adjusted OR [AOR] = 0.70; 1 is equal odds). Compared with patients hospitalized for blunt trauma, patients whose trauma was caused by a motor vehicle accident had 25 percent greater odds of developing an HAI, while those suffering from pedestrian trauma had 48 percent great odds; gunshot wound, 28 percent greater odds; and stab wound, 74 percent greater odds.
Among the HAIs, patients with sepsis had nearly six times higher risk of hospital death than uninfected trauma patients. Patients with other HAIs had 1.5 to nearly twice the risk of hospital death than trauma patients without HAIs. In addition, trauma patients with HAIs had approximately 2- to 2.5-fold higher health care costs and approximately 2-fold longer hospital stays than uninfected trauma patients.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: Lab samples in teh Texas hospital were sent thru the tube system? wow... if this is true, expect a major outbreak.
Not to mention all of the waste stacked to the ceiling.
Then Ebolanurse 2 figured it would be a great idea to go zipping on up to Ohio a day before being diagnosed.
posted
Confirmation of a second, unidentified health care worker infected with the Ebola virus in the United States within a two-week span has raised questions about the manner in which public health officials have tackled the disease since it reached the mainland last month.
The nurse, who counted among the nearly 100 medical professionals who cared for Ebola patient zero Thomas Eric Duncan, reported a fever on Tuesday and stayed in an isolation unit at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. The next day, health officials announced the positive test results, which came three days after a nurse who spent hours with Duncan tested positive for Ebola.
While the most recent case has added to the frenzy among Americans fearful of an Ebola outbreak similar to what has unfolded in West Africa, officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say that the subsequent infections didn’t take them by surprise, especially since nearly 100 doctors, nurses, and assistants treated Duncan for 10 days.
That hasn’t stopped some health care workers, many of whom stood on the front lines in the days since Duncan arrived in the U.S., from questioning and critiquing the steps that health officials have taken to protect them as they treat the Ebola-stricken. During a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, Deborah Burger, the president of National Nurses United, recounted instances during which nurses at Presbyterian Hospital treated Duncan for days in an open space in the emergency room under constantly changing protocols and without sufficient protective gear.
“Were the protocols breached? The nurses say there were no protocols,” Burger told reporters, refusing to identify those nurses but maintaining they “were in a position to know” what occurred at the hospital.
Other allegations nurses made, according to Burger, included the contamination of the hospital specimen delivery system with the Ebola patient’s lab samples. Nurses also said that medical professionals didn’t dispose of hazardous waste expediently. The conversation took place hours after CDC director Thomas Frieden acknowledged that the agency should have played more of a direct role in responding to the first Ebola infection.
That’s why federal officials recently unveiled plans to dispatch a newly assembled response team to any hospital in the country that has a confirmed case of Ebola. Some of the world’s leading experts on Ebola have also converged on Dallas, including two nurses from Emory University Hospital in Atlanta who safely cared for Ebola patients and will train hospital staff on infection control and proper use of protective gear.
“I wish we had put a team like this on the ground the day the patient, the first patient, was diagnosed,” Frieden said at a news conference Tuesday. “That might have prevented this infection. But we will do that from today onward with any case, anywhere in the U.S.”
But some think that the CDC should go further to contain the disease which experts say has a 70 percent death rate and could infect more than 10,000 people worldwide before the end of the year. Recommendations include transporting Ebola patients to the four hospitals — each located in Georgia, Maryland, Nebraska, and Montana — with special isolation units, as well as equipping medical professional with more protective suits and hands-on training.
Posts: 3827 | From: beautiful California | Registered: Sep 2008
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posted
A number of years ago I had to pick up a friends Uncle at the airport. Got to talking to him on the way back and it turns out he was a researcher for the CDC. This was during the height of the AIDS scare so I asked him about it. He claimed that in spite of all the press hoopla the CDC wasn't all that concerned about AIDS simply because of the methods of transmission, you had to almost try to get it.
He went on to describe a scenario much like we're seeing today. He claimed that something like this was the CDC's greatest fear, an exotic, previously localized virus, or a yet unseen virus breaking out of its boundaries and spreading to more populated and modernized areas. He also said the CDC believed that once something like this hit our shores it would already be too late, containment would be impossible.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Upside: A number of years ago I had to pick up a friends Uncle at the airport. Got to talking to him on the way back and it turns out he was a researcher for the CDC. This was during the height of the AIDS scare so I asked him about it. He claimed that in spite of all the press hoopla the CDC wasn't all that concerned about AIDS simply because of the methods of transmission, you had to almost try to get it.
He went on to describe a scenario much like we're seeing today. He claimed that something like this was the CDC's greatest fear, an exotic, previously localized virus, or a yet unseen virus breaking out of its boundaries and spreading to more populated and modernized areas. He also said the CDC believed that once something like this hit our shores it would already be too late, containment would be impossible.
it may be possble to contain it (here) still. we'll know in the next few days....
here's the timeline on Duncan (or patient 0)
Sept 19: Duncan flies out of Monrovia, Liberia
Sept 20: Lands in Dallas, Texas, after changing
Sept 24: Duncan starts experiencing symptoms
Sept 25: Goes to Texas Health Presbyterian hospital in Dallas - but is sent home
Sept 25-27: Symptoms worsen at home
Sept 28: Duncan taken to hospital after vomiting. CDC warned of possible Ebola case
Sept 29: Beset by projectile vomiting and diarrhea, Duncan asks to be put in a diaper
Sept 30: CDC confirms Ebola diagnosis
Oct 1: Sepsis sets in - but Duncan tries to stay upbeat, asking to watch a movie. He asks to eat solid food, but changes his mind.
Oct 2: He asks for food, eats a few saltine crackers and a mouthful of Sprite. But blood is appears in his urine; he is given stronger drugs
Oct 3: Doctors request experimental drug brincidofovir as Duncan keeps worsening
Oct 4: Duncan has multiple organ failure. New drug arrives and he is given it
Oct 6: Duncan's family, including his mother, come to visit him. His face is described as 'like a mask', some say he looks dead already
Oct 7: Family continue to watch Duncan via close-circuit cameras
Oct 8: Early in the morning Duncan's heartrate slows to less than 50 beats per minute.
At 7:51am he is pronounced dead
we aren't sure when he was exposed, but i tlooks like it takes about a week for ebola to get goin'
we don't know when the nurses got exposed so it's not possible to get an exact time.....
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