3/16/01
MTON long (low-med risk, closed 23 3/32)
- When they reported last month, Metro One telecom raised this coming
quarter's eps estimates. Stock has since come down from mid 30's on
concerns that they won't be able to meet the aggressive target. Wrong!
After the close yesterday, they raised guidance again, slightly higher
revenue and almost 50% higher eps. Will look for it to break out of
recent trading range.
- Currently up in after-hour to over the 20ma heading to 50ma. The
strategy is to watch for 5 min. After 5 min, if stock is below opening
price and market condition is not terrible, buy-trigger is as soon as it
trades above opening price. Otherwise, buy-trigger is 5-min high. Target
~27.5, then 29-31, stop 3% below entry.
EDS long (low risk, closed 58.5)
- after a bullish breakaway gap last month, Electronic Data System has
pulled back sharply and found support at the previous breakout point.
Yesterday stock bounced off it and is looking to challenge the 50ma.
- Consider buying as soon as it trades above yesterday's high of 59.25,
target 62-64, stop 57.56
ELNT short (med risk, closed 25 ¼)
- 2.5 wk ago comm. I/C chipmaker Elantec preannounced that they would
miss earnings badly. Stock gapped down and lost 35%. It has since slowly
made it back to the lower-range of the gap and declining 20ma and
stopped dead in its track. Will look for a pullback.
- Consider shorting as soon as it trades below yesterday's low of 25,
near-term target ~23 (sell half), then 21.5-20, stop 26 1/4
update:
VRTY: did not meet entry criteria
WCOM: bought 17 5/8, closed 17 9/16 (flat), same target, new stop 16
7/8.
IDPH: shorted 52 3/8, closed 50 15/16 (3% paper gain), target 48-46,
stop 54 3/4.
CTAS: bought 36, closed 35 5/8 (1% paper loss), target 37.5-39, stop 34
xxxVRTS: on big gap-up, sold half at 63 9/16 for 7% gain, the rest
stopped out breakeven (4% gain in 2 days)
xxxCHKP: on big gap-up, sold half at 72 5/8 for 4% gain, the rest
stopped out 65 15/16 (1% loss in 2 days)
KEI: on big gap-up, sold half at 16.2 for 6% gain, closed 15.89 (4%
paper gain), same target, new stop breakeven.
SNPS: closed 50 ¾ (4% paper loss), same strategy
GE: holding
3/15/01
NAS has tested 1920's several times and held. Selling pressure is now on
the so-called safe havens. Short-term bottom may be in place for tech
stocks, but that's assuming we don't get a bad warning from a major
company after the close today (remember, the big boys like to warn on
thursdays during earnings warning season).
VRTY long (med risk, closed 22 15/16)
- business portals software company Verity beats earnings by $0.02/sh
and widen next quarter's estimate (.24-.27 vs .25 consensus).
- currently up in after-hour. The strategy is to watch VRTY for 5 min.
After 5 min, if price is below opening price *and* market condition is
not bad, buy point is as soon as it trades above the opening price.
Otherwise, buy-trigger is as soon as it trades above 5-min high. Target
25.5-27 (sell half), then 28.5-30, stop is 5% below entry.
WCOM long (low-med risk, closed 16 7/16)
- Worldcom's EPS estimate was revised upward by SBSH (for a change, most
of WCOM's recent EPS revision has been downwards), and stock rebounded
off the low on almost 2x average volume. Currently challenging the 20ma,
so will look to trade the buy-zone between 20 and 50ma.
- consider buying as soon as it trades above yesterday's high of 17 (if
gap up big, move buy point to 5-min high). Target ~19, stop 15 15/16 or
6% below entry.
IDPH short (med risk, closed 51 1/8)
- 3 days ago, biotech company IDEC Pharmaceutical (P/E 140) fell below
the 200ma for the first in >9mth. Bargain-hunting has pushed it higher
the last two days, but failed at the 200ma. Will look for more downside
as biotech continues to go out of favor and multiple compression
continues.
- watch for 30min, consider shorting as soon as it falls below the 30min
low. Near-term target 45-46 (cover half), with longer term target 38-42.
Stop is 5% above entry.
update:
RMBS: did not meet entry criteria
SNPS: bought 53, closed 51 3/4 (2% paper loss), target 55-56, stop 49
7/8.
VRTS: bought 59 1/4 (30min high), closed 59 11/16 (1% paper gain), same
target, stop 55 5/8.
CHKP: bought 69 7/8 (30min high), closed 68 3/4 (2% paper loss), same
target, stop 66
KEI: closed 15.11 (1% paper loss), same strategy
xxxCMVT: sold the rest 65 (5% gain in 3 days, assuming that the MAR 75
call expires worthless).
xxxAMD: covered the rest on gap down 22.56 (6% net gain in 4 days)
xxxEFII: lower target met, sold half at 26 9/16, the rest stopped out 24
1/2 (5% net gain in 4 days)
3/14/01
RMBS long (med risk, closed 36.38)
- Rambus bounced off critical support ~35. After the close, Matsushita
became another DRAM manufacturer to sign royalty agreement with the
company.
- consider buying as soon as it trades above yesterday's high of 37.8
(if there's a big gap-up, move buy point to 5-min high). Near-term
target 40-42 (sell half), then 44, stop 35.75 or 5% below entry.
SNPS long (med risk, closed 52 5/8)
- After a breakout to 52wk high on big volume, Synopsys has pulled back
sharply for 4 straight days and closed right at the rising 50ma and an
upward trendline extending back to its breakout point in early 12/00.
- the strategy is to watch SNPS for 30min, and consider buying as soon
as it trades above 30-min high. Near-term target ~56, then 58-60, stop
5% below entry.
VRTS long (med-high risk, closed 59 1/8)
- Veritas Software reaffirmed earnings and denied any slowdown last
monday, stock went up 10+% shortly but was sold down steeply after.
However, the volume during the sell-off wasn't extreme and $55 level
held, which the stock bounced off yesterday.
- consider buying as soon as it trades above yesterday's high of 60 1/8
(if there's a big gap-up, move buy point to 5-min high). Near-term
target 65-67 (sell half), then ~70, stop is 57 3/4 or 4% below entry.
CHKP long (med risk, closed 70 1/16)
- Checkpoint Software is one of the last of the Mohicans. Past few days
has shown strength, stuck in the region of 65-70 even when the NAS was
down big. Attempting to break out of 70.
- consider buying as soon as it trades above yesterday's high of 70
1/2(if there's a big gap-up, move buy point to 5-min high). Near-term
target ~75 (sell half), then 79-81, stop is 67 1/2 or 4% below entry.
update:
QCOM, AOL: did not meet entry criteria
KEI: bought at 15.26, closed 15.05 (1% paper loss), target 16.5-17.5,
stop 14.5
CMVT: covered half 66 1/4 for 5% gain, closed 70 (1% paper loss),
Comverse did not disappoint. I lost, will look to cover the rest, and
hope for CMVT to go up big.
EFII: lower target met but haven't sold, closed 26 3/16 (7% paper gain),
near-term target 27-28 (sell half), then ~30, new stop breakeven
AMD: closed 23 7/8 (2% paper gain), same strategy
3/13 QCOM short (med risk, closed 48 1/16)
- Qualcom closed below critical support of 50, $36 bil company but
revenue growth has come to a halt, wireless sector is in the dump, China
Telecom denied $60 bil CDMA network plan.
- consider shorting as soon as it trades below yesterday low of 47 1/4
(if gap down big, don't sell right away, adjust to 5-min low), target
42-44 but lets look for capitulation-style selling, stop 50 1/8.
AOL short (med risk, closed 39.27)
- American Online Time Warner should not be immune to severe ad
slowdown. Under heavy selling pressure yesterday.
- consider shorting as soon as it trades below yesterday low of 38.4 (if
gap down big, don't sell right away, adjust to 5-min low), target ~35,
stop 41.06
KEI long (med-high risk, closed 14.95)
- Keithley announced a slight earning warning for this quarter and
dimmer outlook going forward. Stock was killed but managed to stop right
at support ~15.
- Selling a bit overdone and will look to scalp some recovery. Watch KEI
for 30min, consider buying as soon as it trades above 30min high. Target
is $1.5-2 gain, stop $1 below entry.
update:
CMVT: shorted at 73 1/8, bought MAR16 75 call 3 3/4 premium, closed 67
7/16 (3% paper gain). will hold through earnings, will cover half at ~65
EFII: bought 24 3/8, closed 24.03 (1% paper gain), target 26.5-28, stop
22 3/4
AMD: closed 22.73 (6% paper gain), same target, new stop breakeven.
xxxATVI: stopped out 23 9/16 (1% loss in 3 days)
3/12/01 CMVT short hedged by call Option (low risk, closed 75 13/16)
- comm systems and software maker Comverse Tech is set to release
quarterly earnings and guidance tomorrow 3/13/01. Chart shows lots of
selling in the last few weeks. CMVT, as with anything that has to do
with the communication sector, shouldn't be immune to a slowdown and
could easily fall to important support ~65 on a negative outlook, and
probably beyond on anything worse.
- the strategy is to short CMVT at the opening and buy MAR16 75 call
option (~6 premium) as a hedge. Therefore maximum loss is ~8% while the
reward could be substantial.
EFII long (med risk, closed 24 3/16)
- After a breakout in early Jan off a well-formed base and later
convincingly over the 200ma from 2/27-3/6 to the bottom range of a big
price gap formed in early Jun 2000, Electronics for Imaging has pulled
back for 3 straight days on relatively low volume. Friday EFII closed
right near the rising 20ma and 2+mth old rising trendline, with a long
tail signalling a possible reversal off support.
- watch EFII for 30min, consider buying as soon as it trades above
30-min high. Near-term target 27-28 (sell half), then potentially
filling gap to low 30's, stop is 6% below entry.
Update on previous plays:
xxxMUSE: shorted 37 7/8, target met, covered 35 (a neat 8% gain in 1
day)
AMD: shorted 24.31, n-t target met, covered half at 23.13 for 5% gain,
closed 23.3 (3% paper gain). New target 21-20, new stop 24.75
ATVI: closed 24 5/8 (3% paper gain), same strategy 3/9/2001
AMD short (low-med risk, closed 26)
- chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices has rallied almost 100% ytd.
Yesterday closed at a stiff 5-mth old resistance ~26 level. After
Intel's bearish outlook, look for AMD to pull back.
- the strategy is to watch AMD for 5-min. After 5 min, note the low
price so far and consider shorting as soon as it trades below the 5-min
low. Near-term target 23, then 20-21. Stop is 5% above entry.
MUSE short (med risk, closed 38 13/16)
- e-business software maker Micromuse threatening to break below
support.
- consider shorting as soon as it trades below yesterday's low of 37
15/16. Near term target 35, stop 5% above entry. Important: do not short
right away if the stock gaps down too much at the open. If stock gaps
down big, move sell point to 5-min low.
update on previous plays:
xxxTLAB: bought 43 9/16, both targets met, sold half at 45 13/16 and the
rest 49 (a neat 8% gain in 1 day)
ATVI: bought 23 7/8, went up just shy of lower target, closed 24 5/8 (3%
paper gain). Same target, new stop 23 1/2 3/8/2001
TLAB long (med-high risk, closed 54 11/16)
- After the close 3/7/01, Tellab warned of a slight earnings shortfall
(.35-.38/sh vs .38 estimate) and was down big after-hour to critical
support area. This has the setup of a possible "bear trap"
- the strategy is to watch TLAB for 5-min. After 5 min, note the high
price so far and consider buying as soon as it trades above the 5-min
high. Near-term target 45-46 (sell half), then 48-50. Stop is 6% below
entry.
ATVI long (low-med risk, closed 23 9/16)
- Video game stocks are hot. ERTS and THQI broke out yesterday.
Activision is at the brink of breaking out and will look for it to break
out soon.
- Consider buying as soon as it trades above yesterday's high of 23
27/32. Target 25.5-27. Stop 22 7/8. |
