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Author Topic: I sure know how to pick 'em
Jo4321
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Buy alert. I just sold FMD at $3.80

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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I had the calculation wrong on RJF above. But it's gone up more since

RJF out at $19.30 (now $30.35)+57.31%

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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I guess since this falls under the "I sure know how to pick em" category.

I bought YHOO a few days ago at $26.80, expecting the Microsoft deal. So, now as you may have read, Microsoft is backing out of the deal.

Since this all came as news when the market is closed, is there any chance for the small retail investor to sell out prior to the big drop. I cannot sell in pre-hours until 8:00am with my broker. Am I SOL?

Why do companies always announce bad news when the market is closed?

Jo

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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quote:
posted May 01, 2008 12:31
Buy alert. I just sold FMD at $3.80


Anyone buy it? It hit $4.13 today.

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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BooDog
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quote:
Originally posted by Jo4321:
quote:
posted May 01, 2008 12:31
Buy alert. I just sold FMD at $3.80


Anyone buy it? It hit $4.13 today.
FMD
Start: $3.61
Current: $4.04 (11.91%)
Target: $8.00 (121.61%)

This is my target Jo.

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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Jo4321
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Boodog, I'm back in FMD at 3.78, hope it's not the kiss of death for it.

[Smile]

My two most recent sells:

USU at yesterday
$5.18 now $5.35 (got as high as $5.50)

JRCC a few days ago at $24.09; now $30-something

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BooDog
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WTG Jo. when it hit 3.91 I knew it was going down. I am tweaking my exits still. Partly I have 2 problems, leaving too much on the table in a decent run by jumping out OR in something nice and steady like this was I miss jumping out on the top and end up holding too long. I am blaming it on my lack of attention to detail with the charts by letting myself get distracted and not setting stop loss. This morning I saw that I should have bailed but didn't. As a swing I can keep my target But watching opportunities that show it is ready to retrace and allow for an almost re-entry at the same price is pretty cool - but who knew right? There are still a couple decent support levels with this and imo the 3.70 should hold. Crazy day today that's for sure.

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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T e x
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quote:
Originally posted by BooDog:
WTG Jo. when it hit 3.91 I knew it was going down. I am tweaking my exits still. Partly I have 2 problems, leaving too much on the table in a decent run by jumping out OR in something nice and steady like this was I miss jumping out on the top and end up holding too long. I am blaming it on my lack of attention to detail with the charts by letting myself get distracted and not setting stop loss. This morning I saw that I should have bailed but didn't. As a swing I can keep my target But watching opportunities that show it is ready to retrace and allow for an almost re-entry at the same price is pretty cool - but who knew right? There are still a couple decent support levels with this and imo the 3.70 should hold. Crazy day today that's for sure.

imo, focus on "holding too long," first. That is, don't get "scattered" over several variables...cuz then you're fighting yourself re: doubt, emotion, etc...

In other words, you're not losing capital by exiting "too early." Leaving money on the table via an early exit is one thing...

However, giving away capital via holding on...is tantamount to "trader sin." If you were a carpenter, would you leave your hammer and saw out in the yard, to rust or get picked up by whomever? Well, your capital is your hammer and saw...

Solve one problem at a time.

Ok, lol... offa my soapbox [Roll Eyes]

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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Jo4321
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Soapbox appreciated. It's so true, yet sometimes hard to do.

Lately, (as you can see from posts above), I have been leaving much on the table as the stock then shoots up after I sell. But you are correct, it isn't nearly as painful to watch a stock go up after you sell with a small profit, as it is to watch capital erode away by hanging on too long.

I like this quote from Baron Rothschild: "I made my fortune by selling too early".

Jo

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BooDog
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Focus is the key word. Anyone want some psycho analysis? I always thought I could self evaluate and "catch" myself but there were a few pointers in this book. Available at the library (of course). Trading to Win By Ari Kiev M.D. http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Win-Psychology-Mastering-Markets/dp/0471248428
Anyway, it doesn't replace Toni Turner or Steve Nison but does have a way of pointing out the way you may be looking at something a different way and clicked a couple light bulbs. Realizing where I'm going wrong and why is the first step to recovery. I don't spend even a quarter of my time trading as some of you guys but I am always trying to learn more. Thanks Tex, I hate leaving my tools out ~ good analogy. Cheers!

Okay.... back to you Jo!

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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Jo4321
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hmmm, I wasn't paying attention. I didn't realize that FMD was reporting earnings tonight.

If the Jo effect holds, I guess we can expect a free fall.

Jo

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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Crap, I did it again. FMD is $3.40 after hours.

Boodog, I'm just hoping you took my buy in as your sell signal.

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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UPDATE: First Marblehead Swings To 3Q Loss On Write-Downs>

FMDLast update: 5/8/2008 4:28:28 PM

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
First Marblehead Corp. (FMD) swung to a fiscal third-quarter loss Thursday as the company remained unable to complete a single securitization transaction - previously its major source of revenue.

The results came in well below analysts' expectations, sending First Marblehead's shares down in after-hours trading. The student loan lender company reported a net loss for the quarter ended March 31 of $229.6 million, or $2.36 a share, compared with year-earlier net income of $71.2 million, or 75 cents a share.

The latest results included a $315 million write-down on the fair value of the company's service receivables. The company reported negative revenue of $251.8 million because of the write-downs. The mean per-share loss estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters was 36 cents on revenue of $26 million.

"Our earnings this fiscal quarter were disappointing and affected by the continued disruption in the capital markets and the challenging consumer credit cycle," said Chief Executive Jack Kopnisky. "However, we recognize that the demand for private student loans and other services continues to be very strong." Kopnisky added that the company has "taken a number of actions to reposition its business model in light of the current environment." The company originated $1 billion in student loans during the quarter, up 19% from a year earlier. First Marblehead like many companies in private student-loan industry has been left scrambling for capital in the credit crunch.

The company depends on securitizations of student loans for most of its revenue, but it hasn't been able to put together a new package of loans since September. As a result, its shares have fallen 76% this year. Loans available for securitization were up 19% at $1.04 billion. Earlier this month, the company said it slashed it work force in half - hoping to trim operating costs by $200 million amid what it called "an extraordinarily challenging business environment."

Last month, First Marblehead effectively lost two big partners when Bank of America Corp. (BAC) stopped making private student loans, and Education Resources Institute Inc., which provided First Marblehead's borrower default guarantees, filed for bankruptcy. First Marblehead shares closed Thursday at $3.72. Shares recently changed hands at $3.49 in after-hours trading. -By Andrew Edwards, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5973; Andrew.Edwards*dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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BooDog
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Ouchies!! Turn and run but watch for the bounce imo. They knew this was coming though. Will need to review the charts for the bounce.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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Jo4321
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Sold CHCI today at .69

You know what that means.....

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Jo4321
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Sheesh, CHCI closed at HOD at .75.

That's okay, I bought it at .53, so I still made 30%.

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by Jo4321:
I guess since this falls under the "I sure know how to pick em" category.

I bought YHOO a few days ago at $26.80, expecting the Microsoft deal. So, now as you may have read, Microsoft is backing out of the deal.

Since this all came as news when the market is closed, is there any chance for the small retail investor to sell out prior to the big drop. I cannot sell in pre-hours until 8:00am with my broker. Am I SOL?

Why do companies always announce bad news when the market is closed?

Jo

That was one that was a given not to buy Jo... it was in the news for weeks that Yahoo's founder was refusing Microsoft's offer and that Microsoft's CEO wouldn't budge on making a higher offer.. you bought this one strictly on greed and not Reason...

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by Jo4321:
Sold CHCI today at .69

You know what that means.....

Still throwing Mach's rules out the window i see including not trading in Pennies anymore... [Wall Bang]

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by Jo4321:

I like this quote from Baron Rothschild: "I made my fortune by selling too early".

Jo

Read Jesse Livermore in Reminisces of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre... much better quotes and advice... also I don't remember who said it but I always like this quote: Why sell a Rising stock? ...

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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Jo4321
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Well, you can all buy Yahoo now. I just unloaded it at $27.65

Jo

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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Stupid
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And to think Yahoo is going back up next week.

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DDDDD

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Jo4321
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hmmm, the jo effect didn't quite work on YHOO (at least not immediately like usual).

Here's another alert: I just sold IMB at $2.02.

Jo

--------------------
"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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